Box Score Breakdown: Snaps, Routes, Air Yards & Personnel from Week 18

Vocab/Index

• DB = QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks
• RTs = Routes
• RT% = Percentage of team dropbacks on which the player ran a route
• aDOT = Average Depth of Target
• AY = Air Yards
• TS SZN = Percentage of team targets this season
• AY SZN = Percentage of team air yards this season

Personnel Groupings

• 11 = 1 RB / 1 TE / 3 WR
• 12 = 1 RB / 2 TE / 2 WR
• 21 = 2 RB / 1 TE / 2 WR

Any RB/WR/TE with a target, carry or snap share of at least 10 percent is listed below. Any personnel grouping used on at least 10 percent of snaps is listed, in addition to rates for 11 and 12 personnel (by far the two most popular sets league-wide).

Steelers (17) at Ravens (10) 

Steelers Personnel: 11 - 50% / 12 - 27% / 13 - 18%

62 Plays — 23 DBs — 2.9 aDOT — 18-of-20 for 152 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks

• QB Mason Rudolph's 2.9 aDOT was the shallowest all season for a starting QB who played a complete game. About one-third of his air yards came on Diontae Johnson's 71-yard TD, which wasn't even a deep ball (he caught it around 15 yards downfield and then took it the distance).
• OLB T.J. Watt suffered an MCL sprain in the third quarter, likely knocking him out for at least the wild-card round of the playoffs.
• RB Najee Harris got to 1,035 rushing yards, one more than last year. That's three straight seasons with 17 games and over 1,000 rushing yards, plus he had a career-high 4.1 YPC this time. He may not be a superstar, but he's not a total bust either.
  • He enters the playoffs having run for 312 yards and four TDs on 72 carries over the past three weeks, albeit against the Bengals, Seahawks and a Ravens defense resting some key players.
• WR George Pickens disappeared again, finishing with one carry and no targets on 21 routes.
• WR Diontae Johnson had all the receiving production but played only 48% of snaps (83% route share) as part of an extremely-run-heavy gameplan.

Ravens  Personnel: 11 - 65% / 12 - 5% / 21 - 21%

57 Plays — 32 DBs — 5.8 aDOT — 15-of-28 for 146 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 4 sacks

• The Ravens started RB Gus Edwards, then brought in Melvin Gordon for most of the touches early in the game. 
  • Gordon lost a fumble in the second quarter, and after that the Ravens went back to their usual mix of Edwards and Justice Hill despite resting many other key players.
• Isaiah Likely and Rashod Bateman played partial games.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Najee Harris

Stock ⬇️:   RB Melvin Gordon

   Injuries 🚑: OLB T.J. Watt (MCL)

  Ravens Injuries 🚑: S Geno Stone (knee) 

Texans (23) at Colts (19) 

Texans Personnel: 11 - 46% / 12 - 14% / 21 - 14% 13 - 13% / 22 - 11%

56 Plays — 28 DBs — 10.1 aDOT — 20-of-26 for 264 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 2 sacks

• WRs Noah Brown and Robert Woods both were inactive due to hip injuries.
  • Nico Collins scored a 75-yard TD on Houston's first snap and ended up with 73.9 percent of the receiving yards while catching each of his nine targets.
• RB Devin Singletary got 87% of snaps and all 25 RB touches.
  • File this one away for the playoffs. With everything on the line for his team, Singletary rarely came off the field. He'll be busy in Houston's playoff game(s) and should get a larger contract in his second shot at free agency (after signing a one-year deal with a base value of $2.75 million last offseason).
  • RB Dameon Pierce didn't play.
  • RB Dare Ogunbowale ran just three routes (compared to Singletary's 19).
• The Texans had 27 receiving yards that weren't from Collins or TE Dalton Schultz, getting almost nothing from wide receivers John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson.

Colts Personnel: 11 - 73% / 12 - 19%

62 Plays — 25 DBs — 10.4 aDOT — 13-of-24 for 141 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack

• RB Jonathan Taylor got 76% of snaps and 32 of the 40 RB opportunities en route to 196 total yards, and those numbers would've been even larger if he hadn't missed a brief stretch of the second half with an ankle/heel injury.
  • Taylor had a 49-yard TD run, massive volume and a couple catches. It was his best game of the season but not quite enough for Indy to get the win.
• RB Tyler Goodson took some snaps in clear passing situations even before Taylor's injury, and somehow the deciding play went to Goodson, who dropped a poorly thrown ball from QB Gardner Minshew on 4th-and-1.
  • It was a long yard so I understand throwing, but I'd still want Taylor on the field...
• WR Josh Downs didn't do a ton in the second half of the season but still had a strong rookie year overall, including a big play in the fourth quarter Saturday night.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Jonathan Taylor / WR Nico Collins

Stock ⬇️:   RB Dameon Pierce

  Texans Injuries 🚑: DE Jerry Hughes (ankle)  

  Colts Injuries 🚑: RT Braden Smith (knee) / CB JuJu Brents (hamstring)

Jets (17) at Patriots (3) 

Jets Personnel: 11 - 49% / 12 - 29% / 22 - 13%

63 Plays — 21 DBs — 8.3 aDOT — 8-of-20 for 70 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 sacks

• RB Breece Hall had another monster day, looking every bit the part of a 2024 first-round fantasy pick.
• Ian Rapoport reports the Jets will try to trade Zach Wilson (concussion) this offseason. (They won't get much.)

Patriots Personnel: 11 - 64% / 12 - 31%

58 Plays — 37 DBs — 9.7 aDOT — 12-of-30 for 88 yards — 0 TD, 2 INTs, 7 sacks

• The weather was bad, and QB Bailey Zappe was worse. So much for any thought of ending on a high note...
  • I'd probably try to keep Bill Belichick and give him a chance to build around a rookie QB, whether that means trading up for Caleb Williams/Drake Maye or possibly trading down for Jayden Daniels, Bo Nicks, Michael Penix, etc. 
• RB Ezekiel Elliott topped 80% snap share for a fifth straight game. He had another solid fantasy game thanks to huge volume but hasn't been efficient per carry/target since Rhamondre Stevenson suffered the season-ending ankle injury.
  • Zeke is scheduled for free agency and should draw interest from multiple teams. His body can still hold up to the punishment of large workloads, so maybe he carves out a late-stage Frank Gore-type existence through the mid 2020s. 

Stock ⬆️:   RB Breece Hall

Stock ⬇️:   QB Bailey Zappe

  Jets Injuries 🚑: WR Garrett Wilson (neck) / OL Joe Tippmann (ankle)

  Patriots Injuries 🚑: OT Vederian Lowe (head) 

Falcons (17) at Saints (48) 

Falcons Personnel: 11 - 28% / 12 - 38% / 21 - 12% / 13 - 17% 

60 Plays — 35 DBs — 5.9 aDOT — 25-of-34 for 318 yards — 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 1 sacks

• The Falcons fired HC Arthur Smith on Monday.
  • Great news for anyone with Drake London and/or Kyle Pitts on a dynasty roster.
• RB Bijan Robinson finished on a high note with the help of a long receiving TD

Saints Personnel: 11 - 50% / 12 - 8% / 6OL - 14%

66 Plays — 31 DBs — 8.2 aDOT — 22-of-28 for 264 yards — 4 TDs, 0 INT, 3 sacks

• RB Kendre Miller ended up splitting the backfield work with Jamaal Williams and had the better day in his first game back from an ankle injury.
  • Alvin Kamara (ankle) was inactive.
  • Jamaal did get a late touchdown... on a classic fake kneel-down... apparently designed (without the coaches' knowledge) to get Williams his only TD of the season.
  • Williams' $3.15 million base salary for 2024 is guaranteed, and his roster bonus is only $700k, so he'll probably be back. Kamara might not be. His $10.2 million base salary and $1 million roster bonus for 2024 aren't guaranteed. They'd either wait until after June 1 (less likely) or declare him as a post-June 1 cut if they decide to move on (and can't find a trade).
  • WR A.T. Perry got a lot of playing time in the second half of his rookie season, and while he never earned many targets, he did make a handful of big plays, including TDs on both his catches in the season finale.
• The Saints were a low-key loser from the end part of the season. They probably did enough to keep HC Dennis Allen around, dropped from a potential top-10 pick to 14th, and didn't quite make the playoffs.
  • They did play well, with the offense in particular showing more life over the final month of the season.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Kendre Miller / WR Drake London + TE Kyle Pitts

Stock ⬇️:   QB Desmond Ridder

  Falcons Injuries 🚑: TE MyCole Pruitt (knee) / LB Kaden Elliss (knee)   

  Saints Injuries 🚑: CB Isaac Yiadom (concussion) 

Jaguars (20) at Titans (28) 

Jaguars Personnel: 11 - 76% / 12 - 21%

66 Plays — 43 DBs — 7.3 aDOT — 29-of-43 for 280 yards — 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 0 sacks

• RB Travis Etienne took 25 of the 29 RB opportunities and 67% of snaps.
• WR Zay Jones led the team with 93% route share after missing the previous game with a hamstring injury.
• TE Evan Engram caught double-digit passes for the fourth time this season and third time in the past five games.
  • He finishes with 114-963-4 on 114 targets, setting career highs for catches, targets, yards and catch rate, while his average of 8.4 yards per reception is a career low (along with a 4.9 aDOT, down from 6.3 his first year in Jacksonville).
    • Engram finished two catches shy of tying Jimmy Smith for the Jags record (116 - 1999) and Zach Ertz for the TE record (116 - 2018).
• WR Parker Washington was the No. 3 receiver. He hasn't done much since the first game in which he played a lot (and scored a TD in a loss to the Bengals on MNF).

Titans Personnel: 11 - 36% / 12 - 11% / 6OL - 49%

55 Plays — 29 DBs — 5.6 aDOT — 17-of-27 for 168 yards — 2 TDs, 1 INT, 2 sacks

• RB Derrick Henry, scheduled for free agency in the spring, rumbled for 19-153-1 against his long-time favorite opponent in what might end up being his last game as a Titan.
  • Tyjae Spears scored two of the team's first three TDs but didn't get quite as much work as usual overall. He looked great, with both he and Henry running past/over Jacksonville defenders repeatedly.
• WR Treylon Burks wasn't targeted on 24 routes. Partially because he can't get open and partially because the Titans were feeding Henry in his potential farewell game and feeding WR DeAndre Hopkins to get his contract incentives (he earned $500k Sunday, and would've gotten another $250k with a second TD).
  • And the Jags couldn't stop it, smh.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Derrick Henry

Stock ⬇️:   WR Treylon Burks

Buccaneers (9) at Panthers (0) 

Buccaneers Personnel: 11 - 56% / 12 - 33% / 6OL - 11%

64 Plays —  35DBs — 7.5 aDOT — 20-of-32 for 137 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks

• QB Baker Mayfield may have been bothered by his ribs more than he let on last week. He made it through the game, at least, and now will have some extra rest before facing the Eagles next Monday in Tampa Bay.

Panthers Personnel: 11 - 68% / 12 - 30%

50 Plays — 21 DBs — 5.7 aDOT — 11-of-18 for 94 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks

• DC Ejiro Evero did a great job keeping the Panthers defense competitive all year despite numerous injuries and dealing with fallout from the league's worst offense.
  • Back-to-back shutouts to close out the season, locking up the No. 1 overall pick for Chicago... it's kind of just funny. Maybe Bryce Young rebounds next season under a new coaching staff, or maybe last year's deal goes down as by far the worst in NFL history.
• RB Chuba Hubbard got 84% of snaps and 25 of the 29 RB touches, accounting for almost half of Carolina's yardage.
• RB Miles Sanders, who barely played Week 18, has a full guarantee for his $4.02 million base salary in 2024.
  • Sanders might be cut anyway, as he has a $2 million bonus due on the third day of the league year (March 15) and was clearly outplayed by Hubbard (who is far from a star) in the first season of his four-year, $25.4 million contract.
• WR DJ Chark nearly had a TD from outside the red zone but fumbled while going into the end zone to kill Carolinma's best scoring chance of the day.
• WR Adam Thielen went out with a whimper. He averaged 72.6 yards (9.7 targets) over the first 10 games and 41.1 yards (5.7 targets) the last seven.
• WR Terrace Marshall re-emerged to play 92% of snaps, filling in for Jonathan Mingo (foot), but was targeted just once.

Stock ⬆️:   WR Chris Godwin

Stock ⬇️:   RB Miles Sanders / WR Adam Thielen

  Buccaneers Injuries 🚑: DB Josh Hayes (knee)   

Vikings (20) at Lions (30) 

Vikings Personnel: 11 - 61% / 12 - 23% / 21 - 10%

66 Plays — 48 DBs — 9.1 aDOT — 30-of-44 for 396 yards — 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 4 sacks

• QB Nick Mullens did his thing again, providing plenty of stats for the pass catchers but also making too many mistakes for Minnesota to win.
• RB Ty Chandler got 53% of snaps and 15 of the 23 RB opportunities en route to 89 total yards, with Alexander Mattison taking the remaining work.
  • The Vikings also used some sets with no RB, which has been a feature of the offense in recent weeks.
• WR Justin Jefferson finishes with a career-high 107.4 yards per game, narrowly topping his 2022 league-leading mark of 106.4.
  • He's got to be the first WR to reach 1,000 yards and miss seven games in the same season, right?
    • And he left two games early with injuries, which basically amounted to an eighth missed game in terms of snaps. Jefferson played 550 snaps, about half of his 2022 total (1,079).
• WR Jordan Addison scored his 10th TD to finish with 70-911-10 on 108 targets (17 games).
• TE Johnny Mundt played ahead of Josh Oliver again, despite Oliver being the highest-paid backup tight end in the league (besides maybe C.J. Uzomah?).

Lions Personnel: 11 - 39% / 12 - 20% / 21 - 11% / 6OL - 30%

56 Plays — 33 DBs — 8.6 aDOT — 23-of-32 for 320 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 1 sack

• TE Sam LaPorta injured his knee in the second quarter and missed the rest of the game. He seems to have avoided a ligament tear, but a bone bruise and hyperextension will make it challenging to be ready for the wild-card round. There's no guarantee he plays this postseason even if the Lions make a run.
  • Brock Wright (hip) was inactive for a third straight game, so James Mitchell took on an every-down role after LaPorta's departure.

Stock ⬆️:   TEs Brock Wright (hip) & James Mitchell / TE Johnny Mundt

Stock ⬇️:   RB Alexander Mattison

  Lions Injuries 🚑: TE Sam LaPorta (knee) / WR Kalif Raymond (knee) / S Brian Branch (wrist)

Browns (14) at Bengals (31) 

Browns Personnel: 11 - 68% / 12 - 30%

53 Plays — 29 DBs — 9.9 aDOT — 13-of-26 for 166 yards — 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 3 sacks

• RB Pierre Strong took 82% of snaps in the first quarter and 80% in the third, but Jerome Ford also played a bunch -- especially in passing situations -- and Kareem Hunt played a bit too.
• WR Elijah Moore cleared concussion protocol before the game and made a cameo before resting up for the playoffs.
• TEs Harrison Bryant and Jordan Akins split snaps/routes in the absence of David Njoku, who was rested along with QB Joe Flacco and WR Amari Cooper (heel),
  • Akins had a 6-0 advantage in targets.

Bengals Personnel: 11 - 54% / 12 - 18% / 6OL - 10%

61 Plays — 31 DBs — 4.0 aDOT — 21-of-28 for 176 yards — 3 TDs, 1 INT, 3 sacks

• RB Joe Mixon had a huge first half, earning $100k with two TDs and $250,000 when he reached 1,000 rushing yards for the year. It helped that he was facing mostly backups.
  • Mixon then sat out the fourth quarter, with Chase Brown taking eight of the nine snaps.
    • Mixon got 16 of the 23 RB touches pre-Q4.
  • Mixon has one year left on contract, and it looks like the Bengals can add about $6 million in cap space if they cut/trade him before the fourth day of the league year (March 16, when he'd receive a $3 million roster bonus).
    • It's not a bad contract. In fact, Mixon might expect an extension. So this could get more interesting than it did last season (when there was a lot of speculation but the Bengals said all along they would keep him and ultimately that's what they did after he agreed to adjust his contract downward).
• WR Ja'Marr Chase played just three snaps after halftime.
• WR Andrei Iosivas replaced Tee Higgins (hamstring), with Charlie Jones and Trenton Irwin only getting significant run in the second half once Chase and Tyler Boyd were rested.
  • QB Jake Browning eventually was pulled as well, in favor of... AJ McCarron.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Joe Mixon / WR Andrei Iosivas

Stock ⬇️:   WR Trenton Irwin

  Browns Injuries 🚑: DT Shelby Harris (shin)

Eagles (10) at Giants (27) 

Eagles Personnel: 11 - 78% / 12 - 22%

65 Plays — 41 DBs — 9.9 aDOT — 20-of-36 for 203 yards — 1 TD, 2 INTs, 5 sacks

• WR A.J. Brown fell to the turf late in the first quarter, losing a fumble in the process, and then missed the rest of the game with a knee injury.
  • WR DeVonta Smith (ankle) was already inactive, and not just to rest.
• RB Kenneth Gainwell replaced D'Andre Swift (illness) as the lead back and took 78% of snaps before halftime.
  • The Eagles pulled starters in the second quarter, and Gainwell didn't play at all after halftime.
• QB Jalen Hurts injured the middle finger on his throwing hand but continued to play into the second quarter (at which point the Eagles removed him and other starters).
• WR Quez Watkins was the one bright spot here, putting up 8-93-1 on 11 targets. He's typically seen very few targets even when playing a lot, but an offense with Marcus Mariota and Olamide Zaccheaus as companions allowed Watkins to set career highs for targets and catches.

Giants Personnel: 11 - 68% / 12 - 26%

66 Plays — 36 DBs — 8.9 aDOT — 25-of-34 for 311 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 sacks

• WR Wan'Dale Robinson should be a popular 2024 breakout candidate after recording 260 receiving yards and 60 rushing yards over the final five games of his sophomore campaign.
  • Robinson had 227 receiving yards in six games as a rookie, including nine catches for 100 yards Nov. 20 in his final appearance before the ACL tear ended his season.
• TE Daniel Bellinger got more snaps and routes than Darren Waller, who nonetheless had a 6-0 advantage in targets.
• WR Darius Slayton completed his strong finish. One-third of his yardage and three of his four TDs came over the final three weeks.
  • Slayton has one season left on his contract, with a non-guaranteed $2.5 million base salary, $2.4 million roster bonus (fifth day of league year) and more than 1.1 million in other bonuses (workout/per-game roster/incentives).
  • A month ago, Slayton seemed unlikely to see Year 2 of his two-season contract, barring an agreement for a pay cut of some kind. Now it seems quite possible, or he might even sign an extension (which could reduce the 2024 cap hit while increasing his actual compensation. 
• RB Saquon Barkley is yet another veteran rusher whose 2024 ADP could get a small boost from a strong finish.

Stock ⬆️:   WRs Wan'Dale Robinson & Darius Slayton

Stock ⬇️:   QB Jalen Hurts (finger)

  Eagles Injuries 🚑: WR A.J. Brown (knee) / S Reed Blankenship (groin) / G Cam Jurgens (eye) / CB Sydney Brown (knee)    

  Giants Injuries 🚑: WR Jalin Hyatt (hamstring) / CB Nick McCloud (back) 

Chiefs (13) at Chargers (12) 

Chiefs Personnel: 11 - 78% / 12 - 17%

59 Plays — 31 DBs — 5.0 aDOT — 15-of-30 for 154 yards — 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 sack

• Not a great look for the Chargers, losing to a Chiefs offense led by huge workloads for RB La'Mical Perine and WR Mecole Hardman.
  • The Chiefs were more aggressive than any other team when it came to resting key players Week 18.

Chargers Personnel: 11 - 73% / 12 - 20%

80 Plays — 50 DBs — 6.4 aDOT — 28-of-47 for 258 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks

• A bunch of veterans reached milestones/incentives yesterday, but the Chargers weren't able to get RB Austin Ekeler anywhere near the 110 total yards he needed to reach a bonus (at 1,125).
  • Ekeler got 18 of the 20 RB opportunities on 78% of snaps but managed just 49 total yards on his 17 touches.
  • Ekeler is scheduled for free agency after multiple years of contract drama. Unfortunately, his value is at a five-year low (or at least a four-year low) after he struggled in the second half of the season. It's hard to say how much of that was related to the high-ankle sprain vs. age vs. the situation around him being a mess.
• TE Donald Parham led the team in receiving, running more routes than usual after Gerald Everett was injured on the opening drive and didn't return.
  • Parham still split routes with Stone Smartt, fwiw.
  • Everett is scheduled for free agency in March.

Stock ⬇️:   RB Austin Ekeler / WR Quentin Johnston

  Chargers Injuries 🚑: TE Gerald Everett (knee) / WR Joshua Palmer (knee) / OT Trey Pipkins (knee) 

Cowboys (38) at Commanders (10) 

Cowboys Personnel: 11 - 58% / 12 - 13% / 21 - 19%

69 Plays — 40 DBs — 6.2 aDOT — 34-of-40 for 309 yards — 4 TDs, 1 INT, 0 sacks

• The Cowboys didn't rest any key players until the very end when they'd locked up the win and the NFC East.
• WR CeeDee Lamb finished as fantasy's WR1 for PPR and standard scoring, albeit with Tyreek Hill only a few points behind in one fewer game.

Commanders Personnel: 11 - 63% / 12 - 14% / 21 - 10%

49 Plays — 32 DBs — 5.4 aDOT — 20-of-28 for 157 yards — 1 TD, 2 INTs, 4 sacks

• The struggles continued for QB Sam Howell, who ended up starting 17 games and led the NFL in pass attempts (612), interceptions (21) and sacks (65).
  • The Commanders have the No. 2 overall pick and probably will be starting Caleb Williams or Drake Maye come Week 1 next season.
• WR Terry McLaurin got to 1,000 yards, barely, catching a 15-yard pass with about a minute remaining in the blowout to finish with 1,002 for the season.
  • WR Jahan Dotson, meanwhile, was targeted three times on 30 routes.
• The Commanders predictably fired Ron Rivera on Monday, two years later than they should've.

Stock ⬆️:   WR Brandin Cooks

Stock ⬇️:   QB Sam Howell

  Cowboys Injuries 🚑: CB Stephon Gilmore (shoulder)    

  Commanders Injuries 🚑: S Quan Martin (ankle)

Seahawks (21) at Cardinals (20) 

Seahawks Personnel: 11 - 58% / 12 - 23% / 13 - 11%

53 Plays — 28 DBs — 7.4 aDOT — 16-of-28 for 189 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 0 sacks

• RB Kenneth Walker got only 51% of snaps but 17 of the 22 carries and 18 of the 25 RB opportunities.
  • RB Zach Charbonnet at least finished his rookie season on a high note efficiency-wise, with seven touches for 60 yards.
• WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba had another slow week to close out a mostly disappointing rookie season. He never had more than 63 receiving yards in a game, though he did reach the low 60s four times.
  • JSN Finished with 63-688-4 on 93 targets (6.1 aDOT, 67.7% catch rate, 10.0 YPR, 6.8 YPT)

Cardinals Personnel: 11 - 54% / 12 - 22% / 13 - 22%

69 Plays —  35 DBs — 4.8 aDOT — 22-of-30 for 262 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack

• RB James Conner got his first 1,000-yard rushing season and also finished with career highs for YPC (5.0), rushing yards per game (80.0).
  • He finished sixth in the NFL with 1,040 rushing yards, despite missing three games. He was one of just three players (Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams) to average 75+ rushing yards per game.
• WR Michael Wilson finished strong with 10 catches for 130 yards and a TD on 12 targets the final two weeks (after back-to-back goose eggs Weeks 15-16).
  • The rookie third-round pick put up 38-565-3 on 58 targets (9.7 YPT) in 13 games, averaging 2.9 catches for 43.5 yards per appearance.
• WR Greg Dortch had only 14 yards on 23 routes, finishing on a low note after a few nice weeks beforehand.

Stock ⬆️:   RB James Conner / WR Michael Wilson

Stock ⬇️:   RB Emari Demercado

  Seahawks Injuries 🚑: TE Noah Fant (hand) / LB Jordyn Brooks (ankle)    

Rams (21) at 49ers (20) 

Rams Personnel: 11 - 98% / 12 - 2%

62 Plays — 26 DBs — 6.4 aDOT — 17-of-27 for 163 yards — 2 TDs, 1 INT, 2 sacks

• RB Ronnie Rivers got 52% of snaps and 13 of the 19 RB opportunities (all carries).
• WR Puka Nacua played long enough to get the rookie receiving yardage record and then came out of the game.
  • Cooper Kupp didn't play at all, and Demarcus Robinson didn't play much.

49ers Personnel: 11 - 66% / 12 - 16% / 21 - 16%

58 Plays — 29 DBs — 10.1 aDOT — 16-of-26 for 189 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks

• The 49ers starters mostly got partial workloads, including Elijah Mitchell filling in for Christian McCaffrey (calf).
  • TE George Kittle was held out with back spasms. It's unclear if he would've played otherwise / if he would've played in a more important game.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Elijah Mitchell

Stock ⬇️:   RB Zach Evans

  Rams Injuries 🚑: LB Troy Reeder (knee) / S Jordan Fuller (ankle)    

  49ers Injuries 🚑: DE Clelin Ferrell (knee) 

Broncos (14) at Raiders (27) 

Broncos Personnel: 11 - 61% / 12 - 19% / 6OL - 17%

59 Plays — 39 DBs — 8.0 aDOT — 20-of-34 for 272 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 5 sacks

• RB Jaleel McLaughlin was effective the previous two games while seeing his role grow some, but Sunday he had just three touches for six yards before exiting to be evaluated for a concussion.
  • Samaje Perine may be an offseason cap casualty after McLaughlin's solid showing as an undrafted rookie, though Perine still seemed to be Option A for clear passing situations late in the year.
• RB Javonte Williams led the team in both carries and targets but still wasn't efficient in terms of yards per target/carry (16 touches for 75 yards and a TD).
  • He still played less than half the snaps... but was targeted on nine of 13 routes.
• WR Courtland Sutton left with an ankle injury after missing the previous game with a concussion.
  • WR Marvin Mims was still only a part-time player, as has been the case all year. (Lil'Jordan Humphrey played more, and Brandon Johnson had more routes/targets/points).
  • WR Jerry Jeudy averaged 3.0 catches for 62.8 yards on 6.0 targets over the final four weeks... a mini-resurgence at the end of a poor season.
• QB Jarrett Stidham neither embarrassed himself the past two weeks nor looked the part of a franchise QB. He has $5 million in non-guaranteed compensation for 2024, while Russell Wilson's much larger salary is guaranteed.
  • The Broncos could try to trade Wilson, but either way they might consider releasing Stidham. Not really sure what their thinking is on QBs moving forward...

Raiders Personnel: 11 - 67% / 12 - 9% / 21 - 18%

66 Plays — 35 DBs — 8.1 aDOT — 20-of-32 for 244 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 3 sacks

• RB Zamir White did a nice Josh Jacobs (quad) impression for the fourth straight week. Jacobs, of course, is scheduled for free agency after playing out 2023 on a franchise tag and mostly disappointing (he stayed relevant for fantasy but needed massive volume to make up for lousy efficiency).
• WR Tre Tucker had six touches for 90 yards. He had some other big moments late in the season, like two TDs in the blowout of Los Angeles, and asserted himself ahead of Hunter Renfrow as the No. 3 receiver down the stretch.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Zamir White / WR Tre Tucker

Stock ⬇️:   QB Jarrett Stidham / WR Marvin Mims

  Broncos Injuries 🚑: RB Jaleel McLaughlin (head) / WR Courtland Sutton (ankle) / LB Nik Bonitto (calf) / TE Nate Adkins (leg)

Bears (9) at Packers (17) 

Bears Personnel: 11 - 61% / 12 - 15%

46 Plays — 21 DBs — 8.5 aDOT — 11-of-16 for 148 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 5 sacks

• RB Khalil Herbert got 14 of the 19 RB opportunities but had only 41 total yards.
  • Roschon Johnson got one more snap but just five touches.
• There was very little volume here.
• TE Cole Kmet returned to a full-time role after a knee injury limited him to less than half the snaps Week 17, but he then hurt his forearm and missed part of the fourth quarter.

Packers Personnel: 11 - 63 % / 12 - 37%

60 Plays — 33 DBs — 7.2 aDOT — 27-of-32 for 316 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 1 sack

• Romeo Doubs became the latest Packers  WR with a "chest" injury (Dontayvion Wicks missed the previous game with one, and Jayden Reed missed the second half of that game with one).
  • Wicks returned for Week 18, as did Reed, while Christian Watson (hamstring) missed a fifth straight game.
    • Reed had his first 100-yard game, behind catches of 59 and 32 yards. He finishes the regular season with a 64-793-8 receiving line and 11-119-2 rushing line. It was kind of like a poor man's version of the Tyreek Hill rookie season; the team manufactured a lot of targets/catches but in the process realized the guy is also quite good at the basics of playing WR. Now obviously Reed is nowhere near Hill's class of athleticism, but the rook is at least passable in that regard (4.45 40 at 5-11, 187).
• RB Aaron Jones surged to 82% of snaps, far above his previous season high, and took all 27 of the RB touches (for 141 total yards).
  • AJ Dillon (stinger) was inactive and might be back next week, but Jones should again get a huge share of the offense's touches in the wild-card round at Dallas.
• Pretty wild how so many different WRs have had good games for Green Bay in the second half of the season. Wicks and Reed, both rookies, were the stars in this one, but 2022 seventh-round pick Bo Melton also contributed a lot (76 total yards) and actually played the most snaps of any Green Bay wide receiver.
  • I'd go with Reed, Wicks and Watson as the top three next year, backed up by Melton and Doubs. Or maybe try to trade Doubs and stick with Melton and Malik Heath as the backups. They've got six WRs that caught 15 or more passes this season, and all six are either rookies or second-year pros.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Aaron Jones / WR Dontayvion Wicks

Stock ⬇️:   WR Romeo Doubs / RB Khalil Herbert

  Bears Injuries 🚑: TE Cole Kmet (forearm) / G Nate Davis (foot)

  Packers Injuries 🚑: WR Romeo Doubs (chest)

Bills (21) at Dolphins (14) 

Bills Personnel: 11 - 79% / 12 - 4% / 6OL - 12%

77 Plays — 41 DBs — 9.9 aDOT — 30-of-38 for 359 yards — 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 3 sacks

• Buffalo got the No. 2 seed but took a beating, with four starters plus backup RB Ty Johnson exiting due to injuries (see below).
• TE Dalton Kincaid had a huge role in the passing game for a second straight week, tying for the team lead with eight targets and running routes on 71% of Josh Allen's dropbacks.
  • TE Dawson Knox had a couple really important catches but ran less than half as many routes as Kincaid.
• The Bills went really run-heavy for a few weeks there but opened things back up a bit over the final two games, which helped Kincaid in particular (and then WRs Stefon Diggs and Khalil Shakir).
• WR Gabe Davis injured his knee in the first half and missed the rest of the game, allowing Khalil Shakir and Trent Sherfield to take on more playing time.
  • Shakir erupted for 6-105-0 on six targets, with Sherfield scoring a TD off a deflection en route to 3-24-1 on four targets.
• RB James Cook took 61% of snaps and 17 of the 26 RB opportunities. He finished with single-digit PPR points for a third straight week, continuing his cold streak after a hot stretch that lasted well over a month.

Dolphins Personnel: 11 - 46% / 12 - 8% / 21 - 44%

48 Plays — 28 DBs — 10.7 aDOT — 17-of-27 for 173 yards — 1 TD, 2 INTs, 1 sack

• The Dolphins lost their top edge rusher, Bradley Chubb, to an ACL tear in garbage time Week 17, then lost the next two guys to injuries Sunday night (Andrew Van Ginkel, Cameron Goode). 
  • 34-year-old Melvin Ingram ended up playing 58 snaps and had 1.5 sacks in the process.
• RB De'Von Achane got 60% of the snaps but only two more touches than Jeff Wilson, not doing much after an early TD run.
• WR Cedrick Wilson let the Miami skill-position players in snaps and routes while filling in for Jaylen Waddle (ankle) again.
  • Waddle and RB Raheem Mostert (lower body) may both be back for the wild-card round, though in Waddle's case especially I worry he'd be more of a decoy and not his usual self.
• WR Tyreek Hill was limping a few times, especially after one play in the second half, but mostly gutted it out. He was at 82% route share and targeted on more than half his routes (13 of 23).

Stock ⬆️:   TE Dalton Kincaid

Stock ⬇️:   RB James Cook

  Bills Injuries 🚑: WR Gabe Davis (knee) / RB Ty Johnson (concussion) / OT Dion Dawkins (hand) / LB Tyrel Dodson (shoulder) / CB Rasul Douglas (knee)

  Dolphins Injuries 🚑: OLBs Andrew Van Ginkel (knee) & Cameron Goode (foot)