Box Score Breakdown: Wild-Card Round Recap

Chargers (12) at Texans (32) 

Chargers Personnel: 11 - 56% / 12 - 7% / 21 - 20%

54 Plays — 36 DBs — 12.1 aDOT — 14-of-32 for 242 yards — 1 TD, 4 INTs, 4 sacks, 0 scrambles

• RB J.K. Dobbins took 63% of snaps and 10 of 19 RB opportunities, ceding some passing-down snaps to Hassan Haskins and seven carries to Gus Edwards.
  • Edwards played just seven snaps but took a carry on each one.
  • Dobbins is on a one-year contract and thus scheduled for unrestricted free agency. Edwards is on a two-year deal, but with no guarantee for his $3 million base salary next season.
• WR Ladd McConkey was one of the few Chargers to have a good day, hauling in nine of 14 targets for 197 yards and a TD. 
  • It was McConkey's eighth straight game with at least five catches and 14.5 PPR points. He'll be a second/third-round fantasy pick for 2025.
• WR Quentin Johnston went 0-for-5 on targets after catching 13 of 14 for 186 yards the week before. His 2025 ADP will be tougher to pinpoint, as he had some big moments during his second NFL season but also a lot of bad ones.
• WR DJ Chark filled in for Joshua Palmer (foot) and caught just one of four targets for 10 yards on 58 percent snap share.
  • Chark got a decent amount of playing time the final three weeks but caught just two of 11 targets for 16 yards. He may now be at the battling-for-a-back-end roster spot stage of his career, rather than the No. 4 receiver stage.
• TE Will Dissly handled 69% snap share and 61% route share, with 2-16-0 on five targets. He's under contract for two more seasons, including a full guarantee for his 2025 salary, but it won't be surprising if the Chargers bring in someone faster to take more of the snaps in passing situations next year (or use Stone Smartt more often). While Dissly mostly played well this year, he probably fits best as a No. 2 TE in an offense that uses a lot of multi-TE looks.
  • Colston Loveland, anyone?

Texans Personnel: 11 - 53% / 12 - 36%

70 Plays — 39 DBs — 9.7 aDOT — 22-of-33 for 282 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT,  sacks,  scrambles

• RB Joe Mixon got 70% of snaps and 27 of 30 RB opportunities, with Dare Ogunbowale subbing in for some clear passing situations and Dameon Pierce getting both of his carries on the final drive deep in garbage time.
• WR John Metchie played only 49% of snaps but tied for the team lead in targets (eight) and finished second among the WRs in route share (64%).
  • Metchie took 84% of snaps in 11 personnel and 0% of snaps in other groupings. He played 47% of his snaps in the slot, 44% on the perimeter and 9% tight to the formation.
• WRs Robert Woods, Xavier Hutchinson and Diontae Johnson all landed between 36% and 42% snap share, essentially splitting the No. 2 receiver role.
  • In 11 personnel, Hutchinson got 52% of snaps, with Johnson and Woods both at 32%.
  • In 12 personnel, Woods got 92% of snaps and Nico Collins took 96%.
  • The Texans waived Johnson on Tuesday. He's gotta be the all-time worst locker room guy, right? It seems like he's universally disliked
• Collins' 87% snap share was his second largest of the season, and 86% route share was his fifth largest.

Stock ⬆️:   QB C.J. Stroud   /   WR Ladd McConkey

Stock ⬇️:   WRs Quentin Johnston, DJ Chark

  Chargers Injuries 🚑: LB Denzel Perryman (elbow)

Steelers (14) at Ravens (28) 

Steelers Personnel: 11 - 71% / 12 - 18%

45 Plays — 36 DBs — 7.7 aDOT — 20-of-30 for 270 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 4 sacks, 2 scrambles

• RBs Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris had a near-50/50 split, with Warren taking 53% snap share and eight of 17 RB opportunities.
  • Harris is scheduled for unrestricted free agency this offseason. It's possible that opens up the starting job for Warren, but the Steelers might instead re-sign Harris or bring in another back to take his vacated work.
• WR George Pickens caught each of his five targets for 87 yards and a touchdown, including a couple difficult catches downfield. 
• WR Mike Williams ran just six routes (18%), stuck behind Pickens, Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin once again.
  • Williams and Jefferson both are scheduled for free agency. The Steelers likely will try to find a No. 2 receiver, after 2024 third-round pick Roman Wilson (hamstring) made just one appearance during an injury-marred rookie season. Wilson was a pretty good prospect, FWIW, so he shouldn't be completely buried/forgotten after the lost year, but I don't think the Steelers will want to depend on him.

Ravens Personnel: 11 - 11% / 12 - 43% / 21 - 10% / 6OL - 22%

72 Plays — 27 DBs — 6.2 aDOT — 16-of-21 for 175 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 1 sack, 5 scrambles

• RB Derrick Henry got 60% of snaps and 26 of the 36 RB opportunities.
• WR Rashod Bateman played only 50% of snaps but had team-high 86% route share on a run-heavy evening for Baltimore's offense.
  • WR Tylan Wallace was the de facto No. 2 receiver in the absence of Zay Flowers (knee), getting 54% snap share, 50% route share and two targets (1-21-0), while Nelson Agholor handled just 25% snap share and 36% route share.
• TEs Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely didn't really benefit from Flowers' absence in terms of snap/route share. Likely got a few more snaps than usual (79%), but he and Andrew both finished at 68% route share, tied for second on the team behind Bateman.

Stock ⬆️:   WR Tylan Wallace

Stock ⬇️:   WR Nelson Agholor

  Steelers Injuries 🚑: LT Dan Moore (ankle)

Broncos (7) at Bills (31) 

Broncos Personnel: 11 - 79% / 12 - 10%

42 Plays — 28 DBs — 11.5 aDOT — 14-of-23 for 159 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 3 scrambles

• The Broncos ran just 42 plays, getting thoroughly dominated after an opening-drive TD.
• RB Javonte Williams was back in the lead role for the final game of his rookie contract, taking 74% of snaps and nine of 14 RB opportunities.
  • RB Audric Estime was a healthy scratch, with Tyler Badie coming back from injured reserve to get two carries and three snaps.
  • Jaleel McLaughlin got only 20% of snaps and three opportunities, after being the lead back (or the closest thing to one) in recent weeks.
  • It's safe to assume the Broncos will be in the market for a starting RB this offseason, be it via free agency or the draft. That doesn't mean Williams is a goner, but he'd presumably be coming back to compete with McLaughlin/Estime/Badie for backup snaps.
• WR Marvin Mims had career highs for snap share (68%) and route share (67%) but finished with minus-two yards on three touches.
  • Rookie WR Troy Franklin was the one who made a splash, running only 12 routes (50%) but scoring a 43-yard TD on the opening drive. He was the only Bronco besides Courtland Sutton with more than 14 receiving yards.
• Sutton drew nine targets on 24 routes and caught five of them for 75 yards, capping his best season yet with a solid individual performance.
  • Sutton should be about a fourth-round pick for fantasy next year. He's got just one year remaining on his contract and will definitely want a raise/extension. His current scheduled salary for 2025 is $13.5 million.

Bills Personnel: 11 - 51% / 12 - 7% / 21 - 15% / 6OL - 22%

72 Plays — 32 DBs — 9.4 aDOT — 20-of-26 for 272 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 4 scrambles

• RB Ray Davis was concussed in the third quarter on an incomplete target that became a 15-yard penalty.
  • With Davis unavailable, Ty Johnson took seven carries on the final two drives, including each of Buffalo's final four carries.
  • Before the final two drives, James Cook got 21 of the 24 RB carries while playing 55% of snaps. Johnson mostly got his playing time in passing situations before Davis' injury, with just two of Johnson's nine carries occurring before the final two drives.
• Buffalo again rotated WRs, with five guys finishing between 35% - 68% snap share and 39% - 68% route share.
  • WR Khalil Shakir, per usual, led the way in terms of target volume, drawing six looks (all short stuff, 10 air yards) on only 19 routes.
  • WR Curtis Samuel iced the game with a 55-yard, catch-and-run TD early in the fourth quarter. He also finished with more snaps and routes than Amari Cooper. 
• TE Dalton Kincaid played only 39% of snaps, but his 61% route share was second on the team to Shakir's 68%.
  • Dawson Knox got 60% of snaps and 46% route share, with the same number of targets (three) as Kincaid. The two combined for 85 yards on six targets.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Ty Johnson  /   WR Troy Franklin

Stock ⬇️:   WR Amari Cooper

  Broncos Injuries 🚑: LB Jonah Elliss (shoulder)  

  Bills Injuries 🚑: RB Ray Davis (concussion)

Packers (10) at Eagles (22) 

Packers Personnel: 11 - 75% / 12 - 20%

60 Plays — 36 DBs — 8.4 aDOT — 20-of-33 for 212 yards — 0 TD, 3 INTs, 2 sacks, 1 scramble

• Not that it would have mattered in terms of winning/losing... but the Packers lost five starters to injuries Sunday. That's not a great way to end your season / start the offseason.
  • One of those was WR Romeo Doubs, who was down on the field for a long time after suffering his second concussion of the year. His only prior documented concussion was back in 2019 during his college career.
  • WR Jayden Reed suffered a shoulder dislocation and missed the rest of the game. He said Monday that he won't need surgery.
• RB Josh Jacobs put the Green Bay offense on his back yet again, but it wasn't enough, and he played just one of the final 11 snaps after the Eagles made it a two-possession game midway through the fourth quarter.
  • Jacobs took 72% of snaps and 20 of 25 RB opportunities before the final two drives, including 18 of the 19 carries.
• Dontayvion Wicks was the only starting WR to finish the game and led the Packers in targets (six) and air yards (103). He had a 29-yard catch and drew a 24-yard DPI penalty on Green Bay's first drive of the second half, but most of his targets were uncatchable throws downfield (on plays where he wasn't open).
• TE Luke Musgrave got only 25% snap share and 14% route share, with Tucker Kraft again in a near-every-down role (97% snaps, 94% routes).
  • Injuries were a big factor, but Kraft seems to have won the top job for good and should be picked somewhere around Rounds 10-12 next year.

Eagles Personnel: 11 - 53% / 12 - 42%

57 Plays — 24 DBs — 7.1 aDOT — 13-of-21 for 131 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 1 scramble

• RB Saquon Barkley passed up on a 76-yard TD run at the end of the game, going down intentionally to finish with 25-119-0 rushing and allowing Philadelphia to run the clock out.
  • Barkley took 82% snap share and 27 of 30 RB opportunities.
• The Eagles used multi-TE sets more than usual, with No. 2 TE Grant Calcaterra getting 54% snap share and 30% route share.
• TE Dallas Goedert got 91% snap share and 74% route share, returning to his pre-injury role after an impressive Week 18 cameo. If you're wondering about his health/fitness, just ask Packers DB Carrington Valentine.
• WR A.J. Brown got just three targets on 23 routes, mostly generating attention for reading a motivational/self-help book on the sideline. He, Goedert and DeVonta Smith were the only Eagles with more than two targets, per usual, although Jahan Dotson scored an 11-yard TD on one of his two looks (and handled 70% route share).
• LB Nakobe Dean will miss the rest of the playoffs and likely the start of next season. He suffered a patellar tendon tear in the second half.

Stock ⬆️:   TE Dallas Goedert

Stock ⬇️:   QB Jordan Love, WR Romeo Doubs (head)

  Packers Injuries 🚑: WR Jayden Reed (shoulder), WR Romeo Doubs (concussion), C Josh Myers (leg), DT Devonte Wyatt (leg), G Elgton Jenkins (shoulder)

  Eagles Injuries 🚑: LB Nakobe Dean (patellar tendon) 

Commanders (23) at Buccaneers (20) 

Commanders Personnel: 11 - 57% / 12 - 23%

69 Plays — 39 DBs — 6.2 aDOT — 24-of-35 for 268 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 1 sack, 3 scrambles

• RBs Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler formed a near-50/50 split, with Robinson getting 51% of snaps and 15 of 28 RB opportunities.
  • Ekeler took 48% snap share and 12 opportunities, but he surprisingly ran four fewer routes than Robinson, with no clear split in terms of which back played in which situations.
• WR Dyami Brown had the best day of his career with a 5-89-1 receiving line, but he was still just third among Washington's WRs in snap share (61%) and route share (56%), sitting slightly behind Olamide Zaccheaus (70%, 61%) in both numbers.
  • Luke McCaffrey, Chris Moore and Jamison Crowder also played some, combining for 38 snaps and 20 routes but no targets.
  • WR Terry McLaurin was the only Commander with more than five targets, leading the team with 10, and he and Zach Ertz were the only ones above 61% route share.
    • Ertz got only 62% snap share but 81% route share, staying on the field for a vast majority of Washington's pass plays.

Buccaneers Personnel: 11 - 66% / 12 - 21%

44 Plays — 23 DBs — 7.7 aDOT — 15-of-18 for 185 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 1 sack, 4 scrambles

• The Bucs got just seven drives and 44 plays, with Washington dominating possession and holding the ball for double-digit plays on five of seven drives.
  • I can't remember previously seeing a game in which both teams got just seven drives.
• RB Bucky Irving took 68% snap share and 19 of 22 RB opportunities, with the rest going to Rachaad White (while Sean Tucker strictly played special teams).
  • Irving figures to be a second-round pick for fantasy next year, or no worse than Round 3, at least. White, meanwhile, really fell out of relevance over the past month, but he's at least a quality handcuff who can produce if needed (and will be coming off the bench behind one of the league's smaller lead backs).
• WR Mike Evans had half of Tampa Bay's receiving yards and seven of the 17 targets, putting up 7-92-1 despite the lack of overall volume for the offense.
  • WR Jalen McMillan actually got more snaps and routes, finishing with 2-41-0 on four targets in a near-every-down role.
  • WR Sterling Shepard got 74% route share but wasn't targeted on his 14 routes.
• TE Cade Otton was back in his every-down role after missing the previous three games with a knee injury. He handled 95% snap share and 84% route share, with 2-32-0 on two targets.
  • Rookie Devin Culp was a healthy scratch, while Payne Durham got 32% snap share and 11% route share as the No. 2 TE. That's a good sign for Otton keeping his every-down role next year, although it's not guaranteed.

Stock ⬆️:   WR Dyami Brown  /   TE Cade Otton

Stock ⬇️:   RB Rachaad White

  Buccaneers Injuries 🚑: CB Jamel Dean (knee)

Vikings (9) at Rams (27) 

Vikings Personnel: 11 - 78% / 12 - 7% / 21 - 16%

71 Plays — 50 DBs — 9.8 aDOT — 25-of-40 for 245 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 9 sacks, 1 scramble

• RB Aaron Jones took 72% snap share and 19 of 24 RB opportunities. He stayed in during garbage time, and didn't miss many snaps apart from a Q2 drive on which Cam Akers took three carries for 30 yards.
  • Jones and Akers both are scheduled for unrestricted free agency. I love Jones, but Kevin O'Connell's offense might work better with a power back, or at least with a guy who has that element to his game.
• QB Sam Darnold struggled immensely with pressure for a second straight week, and even his lone TD drive required two fantastic catches on misfired passes. The Vikings presumably will move forward with J.J. McCarthy, allowing Darnold to test free agency and look for a starting job (Las Vegas?).
• TE T.J. Hockenson made a fantastic catch on his TD and then rumbled the final 20 yards to the end zone. It was surprising to see how well he played this season after suffering an ACL tear last December. Hock could have a big year in 2025 if McCarthy is any good.
• WR Jalen Nailor also had a tough catch, and finished with 3-33-0 on five targets, continuing his run of solid performances to close out the year. He's more than adequate as the No. 3 receiver for a team that has Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison as its top two guys.
  • Nailor is a good late-round best ball target for 2025.

Rams Personnel: 11 - 43% / 12 - 51%

51 Plays — 29 DBs — 7.3 aDOT — 19-of-27 for 209 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 0 scrambles

• RB Ronnie Rivers had one carry early in the fourth quarter wiped out by a penalty. His three official carries all came late in the fourth quarter once the game was out of hand.
  • Prior to the final four minutes, RB Kyren Williams took 92% of snaps and all 19 RB opportunities, yielding 92 total yards and a touchdown.
• TE Tyler Higbee took 86% of snaps in the first quarter, accounting for five of the Rams' 12 targets and catching five passes for 58 yards. But he suffered a chest injury and missed the rest of the game. 
  • Coach Sean McVay said after the game that Higbee was at the hospital and in stable condition. McVay said "I think he's going to be okay," but the hospital visit doesn't sound promising in terms of divisional-round availability.
  • After Higbee's exit, the Rams went back to their three-TE rotation with Colby Parkinson, Hunter Long and Davis Allen, each of whom got two targets, including a 13-yard TD for Allen.
    • Parkinson ran 14 routes, compared to Allen's six and Hunter Long's five.
• WR Cooper Kupp played every snap in 11 personnel, but the Rams used multi-TE sets way more than usual to counter Brian Flores' aggressive defense, and Kupp got just 22% of snaps in 12 personnel.
  • The result for Kupp was 55% snap share, 69% route share and only one target. The lack of targets is a recent trend, but the lack of playing time is more of a new thing.
  • WR Demarcus Robinson played a lot more than Kupp, with 73% snap share and 90% route share (but just two targets).
• I'm not sure how the Rams will approach Philadelphia. The Eagles have an even better defense than the Vikings, but it isn't nearly as reliant on blitzing or creating confusion up front (Vic Fango relies more on creating confusion with the coverages / in the secondary). The Rams might go back to a three-wide-heavy approach in Philadelphia, or they might not. Either way, we can't count on much from Kupp at this point.
  • Puka Nacua, meanwhile, remained a near-every-down player. He was favoring his knee at one point but quickly re-entered the game and looked fine thereafter.

Stock ⬆️:   QB J.J. McCarthy 

Stock ⬇️:   QB Sam Darnold  /   WR Cooper Kupp

 Vikings Injuries 🚑: RT Brian O'Neill (concussion)

 Rams Injuries 🚑: TE Tyler Higbee (chest), DT Bobby Brown (shoulder), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (thigh)