This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams: Odds, Picks, and Predictions
The Minnesota Vikings (14-3) travel to Arizona to take on the Los Angeles Rams (10-7) in an NFC Wild Card matchup on Monday Night Football. The Vikings come into the game as the 5 seed while the Rams are the 4 seed as they won the NFC West. There has been a venue change from Los Angeles to Arizona due to the wildfires in the LA area. The teams met in Week 8 in LA, with the prevailiing 30-20.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Odds
Vikings -2.5 (Caesars Sportsbook) / Rams +2.5 (FanDuel -112)
Vikings ML (ESPN BET -135) / Rams ML (FanDuel +124)
Total OVER 47.5 (Fanatics) / UNDER 47.5 (-104 FanDuel)
The Vikings opened as -1.5 point road favorites on Tuesday, and this line has bounced around quite a bit. The Rams sat at -0.5 at one point, and the Vikings were favored everywhere from -1.5 to -3.0 later on after the venue change. The total opened 47.5 and it dropped to 46.5, but it then climbed back up to 48.5 and now 47.5.
The majority of the bets (66%) have come in on the Vikings, and the handle (71%) has also come in on Minnesota which reflects where the "sharp" money has landed. There is a 5% difference on bets versus handle.
The total is seeing money on the Under at 70% of total bets, and 84% of the handle. The moneyline shows who has taken a position on the game, and the Vikings have received 59% of the bets and 66% of the handle.
Key Injuries
Vikings - RB Cam Akers (O)
Rams - RB Blake Corum (O)
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Vikings vs. Rams Betting Picks
The Rams are 9-2 SU in their last 9 games
The Rams were 4-2 to the UNDER in their last 6 games
Los Angeles allowed 24 points total and scored 44 points in Weeks 15-17
The trends of the Rams in Week 15-17 along with the nature of the playoffs leads me to be on the UNDER 48.5 in this game. I would even look at alternate totals and go as low as 43.5 points.
The Kyren Williams rushing props are 84.5 at almost every sportsbook except FanDuel so take the value there while you can. While the Vikings have been strong against the run overall, they have looked vulnerable over the last 5 weeks, allowing over 110 rushing yards per game. Williams will get the lions share of the workload and I think just on sheer volume and game script will hit the over. He has hit 81.5 rushing yards in 5 out of his last 6 games.
Vikings vs. Rams Best Bet: Vikings/Rams UNDER 47.5 (FanDuel -104)
Secondary Bet: Kyren Williams OVER 81.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel -113)
Vikings vs. Rams Prediction
I thought this was the toughest game to handicap in the Wild Card round. We do not know the impact the wildfires will have on the Rams, including the move to a neutral site in Arizona. There are people saying it will favor the Vikings who will now have more fans in the stadium, but who truly knows.
Both teams are evenly matched especially when the Rams are healthy and Sean McVay is one of the best coaches in the NFL and that does matter in the playoffs.
The Vikings lost only to the Lions (twice) and the Rams this season. They were the more consistent impressive team all season. I look for the Vikings to escape with a 1 point win on Monday Night.