Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Los Angeles Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings

Monday night's Wild-Card Round finale between the "home-team" Rams and the visiting Vikings could be a compelling matchup between two teams capable of advancing some amount in the NFC playoffs. Of course, only one of these two can earn that privilege by winning this game. The fire disasters in California have caused the game to relocate to Arizona, where the crowd/stadium effect is up for anyone to guess. The Rams won 30-20 when these teams faced in Week 8 – that one was in Minnesota – and yet the Vikings are favored by 2.5 points at the moment, with the over/under set at 48.0.

QUARTERBACK

Matthew Stafford ($9000 DK, $12500 FD) was superb the last time these teams played, throwing for 279 yards, four touchdowns and one interception at a point in the season where almost no one had gotten anything going against the Vikings defense. But that last detail might invite some concern of regression, even if one assume Stafford plays well again. It's just probably also true that the Vikings defense will probably play better, or might at least have better luck here than they did the first time around. The Vikings corners aren't exactly great, but Stafford and the Rams will need to be careful about the Minnesota pass rush to secure opportunities for the pass catchers, but once things are accounted for to that extent Stafford usually will come through for his own part.

Sam Darnold ($9600 DK, $14000 FD) reminded viewers of his limitations in Minnesota's high-stakes face-plant against the Lions in Week 18, failing to identify open receivers as Detroit's aggressive blitzing threw off Darnold's grip on his own offensive scheme. The Rams figure to try posing similar difficulties for Darnold, and while that's still easier said than done Darnold does face questions in the meantime. The good news is that, while the Rams defense is not bad it also isn't great, and with receivers like Darnold has it generally isn't easy to fail for extended periods. The Vikings would be in big trouble if Darnold can't bounce back here, though, so fading him would especially make sense for a lineup trying to fade Minnesota at large.

RUNNING BACK

Kyren Williams ($10400 DK, $14500 FD) is not an easy fade given that the Rams always give him big workloads regardless of the returns, but the Vikings defense tends to be very strong against the run. Williams' volume and consistent red-zone usage give him a chance to be productive anyway. Blake Corum never got an actual audition and apparently might not until someone in the front office twists Sean McVay's arm.

Aaron Jones ($8000 DK, $12000 FD is magnitudes more productive than Williams on a per-snap/per-touch basis, but his workload is nowhere near as assured and his offensive line can't run-block like the Rams can, especially on the interior. The Rams were not terribly stout against running backs this year, allowing 4.5 yards per carry while conceding a catch rate of 87.5 at 7.3 yards per target, so Jones should get some opportunities to show his playmaking ability, but again the volume cannot be guaranteed. That's particularly true with the Vikings giving more power-running concepts to Cam Akers ($4400 DK, $7500 FD), who's the clear backup to Jones but has an interesting Revenge Game setup if the Vikings have a good number of rushing attempts to distribute. If Akers is unable to play due to his illness then speed RB3 Ty Chandler would become more interesting as a punt play, but probably not otherwise.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

Justin Jefferson ($11000 DK, $15500 FD) is way too much to be covered with corners like the Rams have, so the Rams will presumably attempt double/triple-teams of Jefferson to limit his impact. Jefferson's usage has lagged slightly below historical standards this year, but the Vikings should consider it a defeat if they can't execute a Jefferson-centric offense here. Jordan Addison ($7000 DK, $10000 FD) can hurt defenses especially if they sell out to stop Jefferson, but when Jefferson is rolling it's generally not easy for both wideouts to have their highest-range outcomes. While Addison is no Jefferson, he's still a very good receiver in his own right. So is tight end T.J. Hockenson ($5600 DK, $9500 FD), who's probably your second-leading pass catcher if it isn't Addison. Jalen Nailor ($3600 DK, $8000 FD) doesn't see steady usage but his per-target returns have been excellent this year, so if the Vikings throw the ball a lot there could be room for Nailor to make an impact. Nailor generally can't play at the same time as TE2 Josh Oliver ($1600 DK, $7000 FD), however, so the more the Vikings run the ball the worse it probably is for Nailor's projection. Brandon Powell and Trent Sherfield are two potential punt picks at receiver, but neither is likely to play more than 10 snaps and so either would be an exceedingly desperate pick.

Puka Nacua ($10600 DK, $15000 FD) has usage as certain as Jefferson, though Nacua probably owes more of his success to his quarterback and offensive scheme than Jefferson does his. Still, the fact is Nacua is locked in and the Rams tend to prioritize his usage constantly. Cooper Kupp ($9400 DK, $11000 FD) is capable of making an impact at the same time if Stafford throws enough pass attempts – Kupp should be able to beat slot safety Josh Metellus as a route runner, for instance – but generally Kupp always watches Nacua take the first stab, meaning if Stafford has a slow or modest game then it could be difficult for Kupp to find room. Demarcus Robinson ($4200 DK, $8000 FD) seems locked in as the WR3 while Tyler Higbee ($3000 DK, $7500 FD) has taken the clear lead at tight end. Robinson could be a good, cheap source of 60 snaps in this game, and while Higbee is capable it might be an occasion to have him block a lot to slow the Minnesota edge rush. Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell have both been highly productive on a per-snap this year, but they rarely see so many as 20 snaps in a game where Nacua, Kupp and Robinson are all active. Still, as punt plays they have some attractiveness due to their established ability to produce with the snaps they do get. Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen could pop up at tight end, though playing clearly behind Higbee leaves their opportunities slim.

KICKER

Will Reichard ($5000 DK, $9000 FD) has had an up-and-down rookie year, barely making 80.0 percent of his field goals, but the down points can probably be forgiven since Reichard played through injury for an unspecified amount of time and otherwise demonstrated uncommon long-range ability, nailing 8 of 11 attempts from 50 or more. Range sometimes proves pertinent for kickers on single-game slates, where a quirky game script can lead multiple five-point opportunities. Reichard has four games in a row with double-digit fantasy points.

Joshua Karty ($4800 DK, $9000 FD) didn't demonstrate quite as much range as Reichard but was otherwise more generally accurate this year, making 29 of 34 field goals, including 6 of 7 from 50 or more. There's a tiny bit of concern in the fact that Karty missed four extra points this year while Reichard missed none, but Karty's rookie season was generally a sound success and has three games this year with 15.0 or more fantasy points.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Minnesota ($4000 DK, $9500 FD) has one of the league's best defenses, and the Rams offense has not proven itself to be infallible, exactly. The Rams are still dangerous, though, and they're one of the few teams that knew how to beat the Minnesota defense in the regular season. If the Vikings defense proves a cashing pick in this matchup then it might be part of a script where the Rams get thoroughly outplayed, which a person might or might not find a convincing possibility. It seems objectively safe to say that for the Vikings defense to dominate here would be exceedingly impressive, even with all of their noted strengths, including elite pass rush and turnover provocation.

The Rams ($3800 DK, $8000 FD) don't have the firepower on defense that the Vikings do, but they have some disruptors of their own and generally play scrappy relative to their means. Their run defense seems situationally effective at best, but they have at least a few guys (Kobie Turner, Braden Fiske, Jared Verse, Byron Young) who can shoot gaps and bring down ballcarriers (or quarterbacks, better yet) behind the line of scrimmage. If those four can't get heat on the quarterback the Rams corners might find themselves in a bit of trouble, however. The arguably main reason to consider the Rams defense here is Sam Darnold and the doubts he invites in a game of these stakes.