Box Score Breakdown: Snaps, Routes, Air Yards & Personnel from Week 17

Before we get to the usual Week 17 breakdowns, I should mention that a surprising number of teams have nothing to play for Week 18 when it comes to playoff seeding. Nearly everything that could've worked in that direction happened Week 17, starting with the Ravens and 49ers locking up the top spots in their respective conferences.

The Chiefs (No. 3) and Browns (No. 5) also know where they stand; the Lions are very likely the NFC's No. 3 seed; and the Rams know they'll either be No. 6 or 7. I'll touch on all of this below but also wanted to mention it beforehand because it's crucial for those of you who read this article for DFS purposes or for leagues that count Week 18.

Vocab/Index

• DB = QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks
• RTs = Routes
• RT% = Percentage of team dropbacks on which the player ran a route
• aDOT = Average Depth of Target
• AY = Air Yards
• TS SZN = Percentage of team targets this season
• AY SZN = Percentage of team air yards this season

Personnel Groupings

• 11 = 1 RB / 1 TE / 3 WR
• 12 = 1 RB / 2 TE / 2 WR
• 21 = 2 RB / 1 TE / 2 WR

Any RB/WR/TE with a target, carry or snap share of at least 10 percent is listed below. Any personnel grouping used on at least 10 percent of snaps is listed, in addition to rates for 11 and 12 personnel (by far the two most popular sets league-wide).

Jets (20) at Browns (37) 

Jets Personnel: 11 - 78% / 12 - 13%

68 Plays — 47 DBs — 3.6 aDOT — 32-of-45 for 261 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 sacks

• RB Breece Hall has solidified himself as a first-round fantasy pick for 2024, putting up huge scores in back-to-back weeks and even adding some rushing production after a two-month stretch where nearly all his points came through the air.
  • Israel Abanikanda again worked ahead of Breece Hall as the No. 2 back, seeing seven targets and two carries. Abanikanda didn't exactly impress, and lost a fumble on a kickoff return.
• WR Jason Brownlee continues to play a ton of snaps, while Allen Lazard and his two years of full contract guarantees remain irrelevant for one reason or another (Lazard was inactive due to an illness but worked behind Brownlee in the previous game anyway).
• Kenny Yeboah got a look as the No. 2 TE with Jeremy Ruckert (concussion) inactive.

Browns Personnel: 11 - 50% / 12 - 17% / 6OL - 28%

58 Plays — 30 DBs — 6.4 aDOT — 19-of-29 for 309 yards — 3 TDs, 1 INT, 1 sack

• WR Elijah Moore suffered a scary-looking concussion.
  • Cedric Tillman and David Bell figure to play a lot Week 18. Amari Cooper (heel) was inactive Thursday, and there's no reason to bring him back for the regular-season finale.
• TE David Njoku lost a fumble but otherwise had another huge game. He's 118 yards away from his first 1,000-yard season but doesn't figure to play much Week 18.
• Before halftime, Jerome Ford got 50% of snaps and 13 of the 18 RB opportunities, including a pair of TD receptions.
  • Ford also got both RB opps. in the third quarter. And then didn't play at all in the fourth.
    • Kareem Hunt got 73% of snaps and seven of 10 RB opps. in Q4.

Stock ⬆️:   QB Joe Flacco / RB Breece Hall

Stock ⬇️:   RB Israel Abanikanda

  Browns Injuries 🚑: WR Elijah Moore (concussion) 

Lions (19) at Cowboys (20) 

Lions Personnel: 11 - 69% / 12 - 27%

67 Plays — 36 DBs — 8.1 aDOT — 20-of-35 for 302 yards — 1 TD, 2 INTs, 1 sack

• WR Jameson Williams took 88% of snaps before the fourth quarter, compared to 60% for Josh Reynolds and 10% for Kalif Raymond.
  • Williams produced 75 yards on three touches but then injured his ankle in the fourth quarter and missed the rest of the game.
• DE Aidan Hutchinson tried to trip Tony Pollard late in the fourth quarter, unsuccessfully. The refs erroneously and bafflingly called TE Peyton Hendershot for tripping on the same play, wiping out a gain that essentially would've clinched the game for Dallas and turning it into a 15-yard loss instead.
  • The refs later got confused again, wiping out Detroit's go-ahead two-point conversion with 23 seconds remaining because they'd announced the wrong lineman as eligible. I have no idea how two mistakes of that caliber happen within minutes of each other, especially in a key game for playoff seeding.
• The Lions now need a Week 18 win over the Vikings plus a Dallas loss AND a Philadelphia loss to move up from the No. 3 seed to No. 2.
  • The Lions play an early afternoon game, while the Cowboys and Eagles are late games. I think the Lions should rest starters, but that doesn't mean they will. 

Cowboys Personnel: 11 - 56% / 12 - 23%

62 Plays — 41 DBs — 9.9 aDOT — 26-of-38 for 345 yards — 2 TDs, 1 INT, 3 sacks

• RB Deuce Vaughn got three touches for 12 yards with Rico Dowdle (ankle) finally missing a game after being listed on the injury report for a month and a half.
• WR CeeDee Lamb had a 92-yard TD on a broken play in the first quarter, then piled on volume from short passes all night to finish with yet another monstrous fantasy line. He's at 122-1,651-10 entering Week 17, and is locked in as a first-round fantasy pick for 2024.
• The Cowboys can now win the NFC East with EITHER a win over Washington in Week 18 OR an Eagles loss to the Giants. Both games are at 4:25 ET, so the Cowboys figure to play starters (even though winning might or might not force them to face the Rams instead of the Bucs in the first round).
• Let's take a crack at it (PPR)...
  1. RB Christian McCaffrey
  2. WR Tyreek Hill
  3. WR Justin Jefferson
  4. WR Ja'Marr Chase
  5. WR CeeDee Lamb
  6. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
  7. RB Breece Hall 
  8. RB Kyren Williams
  9. RB Jonathan Taylor
  10. WR A.J. Brown
  11. RB Jahmyr Gibbs
  12. RB Bijan Robinson
  13. Others to consider: WR Davante Adams, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Puka Nacua, WR Keenan Allen, RB Travis Etienne, WR Chris Olave

Stock ⬆️:   WR Jameson Williams

Stock ⬇️:   WR Josh Reynolds

  Lions Injuries 🚑: WR Jameson Williams (ankle)    

  Cowboys Injuries 🚑: LG Tyler Smith (foot) 

Patriots (21) at Bills (27) 

Patriots Personnel: 11 - 60% / 12 - 38%

53 Plays — 29 DBs — 8.1 aDOT — 16-of-26 for 209 yards — 0 TD, 3 INTs, 3 sacks

• RB Ezekiel Elliott topped 80% snap share for a fourth time in four games since Rhamondre Stevenson's season-ending injury, though Kevin Harris actually managed more total yards on 11 fewer touches.
• TE Mike Gesicki has caught six of eight targets for 50 yards and a TD during Hunter Henry's two-week absence with a knee injury.
• WR Jalen Reagor mostly contributed by returning the opening kickoff for a TD, but he also finished second on the team in routes (86%) and had a 39-yard reception, benefitting from extra playing time after DeVante Parker left with a rib injury.
• WR Demario Douglas was held to 3-31-0 on five targets but remains a priority for the New England offense. He led the team in routes (93%) and took three carries for 12 yards.

Bills Personnel: 11 - 74% / 12 - 9% / 6OL - 16%

68 Plays — 31 DBs — 11.3 aDOT — 15-of-30 for 169 yards — 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 sack

• RB James Cook turned in a second straight dud after more than a month of consistently strong production. And it again happened despite him having a strong share of Buffalo's backfield work.
  • Cook didn't top 70% snap share like the previous week, but he did get 19 of the 26 RB opportunities even with Ty Johnson back from a shoulder injury.
    • Leonard Fournette didn't play with Johnson back in.
• The nightmare continues for Stefon Diggs...
• TE Dalton Kincaid had his first big receiving game since Dawson Knox's return, putting up 87 yards on seven targets while running routes on 77% of dropbacks. I still wouldn't trust Kincaid for Week 18, but it's a step in the right direction at least.

Stock ⬆️:   TE Dalton Kincaid

Stock ⬇️:   WR Stefon Diggs

  Patriots Injuries 🚑: WR DeVante Parker (ribs)    

Panthers (0) at Jaguars (26) 

Panthers Personnel: 11 - 96% / 12 - 4%

53 Plays — 38 DBs — 7.5 aDOT — 19-of-32 for 112 yards — 0 TD, 1 INT, 6 sacks

• Well, the 30 points in Week 16 certainly looks like a fluke now rather than progress.
• WR DJ Chark got 135 air yards after his big game the week before but caught just one pass.

Jaguars Personnel: 11 - 47% / 12 - 32% / 13 - 13%

62 Plays — 27 DBs — 7.0 aDOT — 17-of-24 for 178 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks

• RB Travis Etienne had a 62-yard TD run early in the third quarter and added a one-yarder late in the fourth. It was his first game with 20+ PPR points since he reached that mark four weeks in a row back in October (a stretch that accounted for seven of his 12 TDs this year).
• With Zay Jones (hamstring) inactive again, the Jags rotated WRs behind No. 1 Calvin Ridley. The other four receivers combined for just four targets, though Jamal Agnew did have 53 yards on two catches.
  • Agnew suffered a season-ending leg fracture
• The Jags' Week 18 playoff math is pretty simple:
  1. If they beat Tennessee, they're the AFC South champs and No. 4 seed
  2. If they lose, they need a PIT loss AND a DEN loss to capture the No. 7 seed.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Travis Etienne

Stock ⬇️:   QB Bryce Young

  Panthers Injuries 🚑: G Cade Mays (finger) / OLB Marquis Haynes (concussion)    

  Jaguars Injuries 🚑: WR Jamal Agnew (leg)

Rams (26) at Giants (25) 

Rams Personnel: 11 - 98% / 12 - 2%

61 Plays — 38 DBs — 5.2 aDOT — 24-of-34 for 317 yards — 1 TD, 2 INTs, 4 sacks

• RB Kyren Williams scored three times; twice from inside the 5-yard-line and then from 28 yards out in the fourth quarter.
• TE Tyler Higbee returned to a near-every-down role after a few weeks of losing some snaps to Davis Allen.
• WR Demarcus Robinson stayed busy, and hot. Consider his recent success a testament to him, but also to QB Matt Stafford and HC Sean McVay.
• WR Puka Nacua needs 29 more yards for the all-time rookie receiving record or 11 yards to top JaMarr Chase's post-merger record.
• The Rams are locked into either the sixth or seventh seed in the NFC. They fall to No. 7 with a loss plus a Packers win.
  • A win likely sends the Rams to Detroit for the wild-card round... unless the Cowboys lose to the Commanders (and the Lions beat the Vikings and/or the Eagles beat NYG).
    • This one is tricky, because the Rams would probably rather face the Lions than Cowboys, but we don't know that to be true. And we do know that the 49ers have nothing to play from besides pride, so there's a good chance they'll either bench starters or scale back workloads. What the Rams do is anyone's guess at this point. (I'd probably rest starters and prioritize health over trying to face the Lions instead of the Cowboys. Plenty of people would argue that Detroit is just as good of a team as Dallas anyway, or at least nearly as good.)

Giants Personnel: 11 - 79% / 12 - 9%

67 Plays — 47 DBs — 8.2 aDOT — 27-of-41 for 319 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 6 sacks

• It increasingly seems like the Giants should keep Brian Daboll and ditch Daniel Jones. The offense hasn't been good this year, by any means, but it's been better than you'd expect given the backup/third-string QBs forced to play and the assortment of O-line injuries (not to mention TE Darren Waller missing time and the WRs not being especially good).
• WR Darius Slayton struck from distance for a second straight week. He's now over 700 yards for a fourth time in five pro seasons.
• WR Wan'Dale Robinson took seven touches for 79 yards and a TD. He has 235 yards from scrimmage the past four weeks and should be a big part of the offense next year.
• TE Darren Waller rose to 81% route share. That's gone up a bit each week since he returned from the hamstring injury.

Stock ⬆️:   WR Wan'Dale Robinson / QB Tyrod Taylor

Stock ⬇️:   QB Daniel Jones (knee)

  Rams Injuries 🚑: TE Tyler Higbee (shoulder) / DT Bobby Brown (knee)  

  Giants Injuries 🚑: S Jason Pinnock (foot) / G Tyre Phillips (quad)

Cardinals (35) at Eagles (31) 

Cardinals Personnel: 11 - 61% / 12 - 25% / 31 - 10%

72 Plays — 32 DBs — 4.1 aDOT — 25-of-31 for 232 yards — 3 TDs, 1 INT, 1 sack

• Give me a big fat L for writing up RB James Conner as a 'downgrade' in Exploiting the Matchups last week. I thought Emari Demercado's relatively busy Week 16 (and generally solid showing this season) would keep him involved over the final two games of the season and hurt Conner's workloads. But the Cardinals are still playing 100 percent to win, rather than to evaluate young players, and the once-fearsome Philadelphia front has been coached into mediocrity.
  • DeMercado got just three targets and no carries on 13% of snaps. Michael Carter, who barely played the previous game, actually took more work away from JC.
• WR Greg Dortch always does something when they let him play. Maybe next year he'll just be the No. 3 receiver from the jump? 
  • Rondale Moore might fit better as a No. 4 anyway, kind of like a Jamal Agnew-type role.
  • I was envisioning a trio of Marvin Harrison, Marquise Brown (IR - heel) and Dortch, but this one reduces Arizona's odds of landing Harrison.

Eagles Personnel: 11 - 43% / 12 - 51%

47 Plays — 24 DBs — 12.1 aDOT — 19-of-24 for 184 yards — 3 TDs, 1 INT, 0 sacks

• WR DeVonta Smith handled a full workload but was injured late in the game.
• I have no idea how a team falls apart mid-season the way the Eagles have without an enormous number of injuries. Coaches obviously need to take a lot of the blame here.
• The Eagles now need a win (over NYG) and a Dallas loss (to WAS) in Week 18 to win the NFC East.
  • If that happens, the Eagles would be the 2 seed if Detroit loses or the 3 seed if Detroit wins (home against MIN).
  • If the Eagles don't win the division, they'll be the No. 5 seed and play the NFC South champion... not the worst punishment for choking away the division. In fact, I'd rather have a road game at Tampa Bay than a home game against the Rams.

Stock ⬆️:   WR Greg Dortch / WR Julio Jones

Stock ⬇️:   RB Emari Demercado

  Cardinals Injuries 🚑: CB Garrett Williams (ankle) / OT D.J. Humphries    

  Eagles Injuries 🚑: WR DeVonta Smith (leg/ankle) 

Dolphins (19) at Ravens (56) 

Dolphins Personnel: 11 - 48% / 12 - 12% / 21 - 33%

66 Plays — 41 DBs — 7.5 aDOT — 22-of-38 for 237 yards — 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 3 sacks

• RB De'Von Achane took only two snaps in the fourth quarter. Before that, he got 55% of snaps and 17 of the 22 RB opportunities. He was basically Miami's only bright spot, with 137 total yards and a TD.
  • Jeff Wilson got the other five. Chris Brooks only played in fourth-quarter garbage time. 
  • (Raheem Mostert was inactive due to knee/ankle injuries.)
• WR Cedrick Wilson took Jaylen Waddle's role in terms of snaps/routes, with Braxton Berrios the No. 3 receiver and the other guys rotating in sporadically.
  • WR Chase Claypool nearly made a tough TD catch on his lone target, but he couldn't quite hold on to the ball when he hit the ground (and was visibly frustrated afterward).
• I praised Mike McDaniel earlier this year for being quicker to pull starters in blowouts than other NFL coaches. And now he thanks me by letting OLB Bradley Chubb tear an ACL deep in the fourth quarter of a 30-point game. 
  • It looked especially bad because McDaniel already had pulled a bunch of starters on offense. It seems he and/or DC Vic Fangio cared a little too much about keeping the Ravens south of 50 points (which they didn't do anyway). Not good. 
• QB Tua Tagovailoa hurt his throwing shoulder late in the game, a few minutes before Chubb went down. That one didn't look serious, but the Dolphins let Mike White finish out the game.
• Miami gets the No. 2 seed with a win over Buffalo on Sunday night.
  • A loss would drop Miami to sixth and send them to Kansas City in the wild-card round.

Ravens Personnel: 11 - 35% / 12 - 11% / 21 - 42%

55 Plays — 23 DBs — 11.2 aDOT — 19-of-22 for 340 yards — 6 TDs, 0 INT, 1 sack

• RB Justice Hill got 48% of snaps and seven of 19 RB opportunities before the fourth quarter.
  • Gus Edwards took the other 12 while playing 53% of snaps. He scored a short TD but also lost a fumble. Hill played better for a second straight week, and had a 78-yard kickoff return as a bonus.
  • Melvin Gordon only played in garbage time.
• In two games since Keaton Mitchell's season-ending ACL injury:
  • Hill has 50% of snaps, 13 carries and eight targets.
  • Edwards has 48% of snaps, 25 carries and one target.
• WR Rashod Bateman surprisingly led the team in routes (87%) and played more snaps than Zay Flowers, who was listed as questionable with a calf injury.
  • Flowers stole the show nonetheless, striking from 75 yards out on a deep ball where he snuck behind the defense and then made two would-be tacklers miss to complete the long TD.
• The Ravens didn't pull starters until their final drive (which ended with a 19-yard TD to backup TE Charlie Kolar on 3rd-and-goal).
• TE Isiah Likely was targeted only three times, but he handled his normal snap/route workload and made a one-handed catch for a 35-yard TD on a 4th-and-7 in the second quarter.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Justice Hill / RB De'Von Achane

Stock ⬇️:   QB Tua Tagovailoa (shoulder)

  Dolphins Injuries 🚑: QB Tua Tagovailoa (shoulder) / CB Xavien Howard (foot) / OLB Bradley Chubb (knee)    

  Ravens Injuries 🚑: CB Marlon Humphrey (calf) / DT Michael Pierce (neck)

Falcons (17) at Bears (37) 

Falcons Personnel: 11 - 10% / 12 - 66% / 13 - 10%

59 Plays —  35DBs — 10.4 aDOT — 13-of-33 for 180 yards — 1 TD, 4 INTs, 2 sacks

• QB Taylor Heinicke injured his ankle at the end of a miserable day and was replaced by Desmond Ridder.
  • Heinicke tossed three INTs, and nearly half his yardage (on 29 attempts) came from Tyler Allgeier's 75-yard, catch-and-run touchdown.
• RB Bijan Robinson was at the upper end of his usual workload range with 76% of snaps, 74% of routes and 19 of the 25 RB opportunities.
• If Greg Roman was a glorified run-game coordinator masquerading as an OC, what exactly is Arthur Smith?
• The Falcons still have one path to the playoffs. They'll be the No. 4 seed if they beat the Saints in Week 18 and the Bucs lose to the Panthers.

Bears Personnel: 11 - 58% / 12 - 13% / 21 - 18%

72 Plays — 35 DBs — 9.0 aDOT — 20-of-32 for 268 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks

• RB D'Onta Foreman was a healthy scratch, and Khalil Herbert responded with another game of 100-plus rushing yards and a TD.
  • Roschon Johnson actually played one more snap than Herbert and also scored a rushing TD, plus caught three passes for 38 yards.
  • Herbert scored a one-yard TD on Chicago's second-to-last drive. At that point, he had 21 of the 29 RB opportunities.
    • Johnson then took two carries for nine yards on the final drive.
• It wasn't exactly neat and tidy, but the Bears got DJ Moore his long-awaited breakout season. It turns out anything was better than Carolina, including a run-heavy offense that had Tyson Bagent under center for a month.
• Rookie WR Tyler Scott filled in for Darnell Mooney (concussion) as the No. 2 WR but didn't do much.
• TE Cole Kmet (knee) was active but played only 13 snaps, with Robert Tonyan filling in as the top tight end.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Khalil Herbert

Stock ⬇️:   QB Taylor Heinicke / RB D'Onta Foreman

  Falcons Injuries 🚑: CB Mike Hughes (concussion) / C Drew Dalman (ankle)

  Bears Injuries 🚑: CB Jaylon Johnson (shoulder) 

Titans (3) at Texans (26) 

Titans Personnel: 11 - 53% / 12 - 8% / 6OL - 34%

53 Plays — 32 DBs — 7.0 aDOT — 18-of-26 for 184 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 6 sacks

• TE Chigoziem Okonkwo caught at least three passes for more than 30 yards for a sixth straight game, though this was his weakest fantasy performance of the stretch.
• RB Jonathan Ward only played in garbage time. It was all Spears and Henry before that.
• WR Treylon Burks continues to get a lot of snaps/routes but not many targets. It's tough to build a breakout case for 2024 beyond #draftcapital.
  • I'd still take a shot on him at some point in the mid-100s, FWIW. Nearly everything that could've gone wrong has gone wrong through two years, including the stuff out of his control. And he looked decent late in his rookie season. I guess that's the breakout case.... maybe that and DeAndre Hopkins potentially moving on during the offseason.
• QB Will Levis lasted six pass attempts and one lost fumble before exiting due to an injury to the same foot/ankle he hurt Week 15 (which caused him to miss Week 16).
  • It isn't clear if he worsened his sprain or suffered a new injury. Either way, Ryan Tannehill finished out the game and likely will start Week 18.

Texans Personnel: 11 - 51% / 12 - 39% / 13 - 10%

61 Plays — 33 DBs — 5.3 aDOT — 24-of-32 for 213 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack

• WR Noah Brown suffered a hip injury early in the game and didn't return.
• WR Nico Collins played more than Week 16 and led the team in targets/catches/yards, but his snap and route shares (62%, 70%) still weren't quite back to his usual range from before the calf injury (which cost him Week 15).
  • That'll likely change Week 18 with everything on the line for Houston and Collins seeming to have avoided any setbacks.
• RB Devin Singletary didn't play the final two drives. Before that, he got 19 of the 23 RB opportunities.
  • Singletary took 66% of snaps before the fourth quarter.
• WR Robert Woods was having one of his better games and playing a lot of snaps but then suffered a hip injury late in the game.
  • Woods played 77% of snaps before the fourth quarter, compared to 62% for Collins, 53% for John Metchie and 40% for Xavier Hutchinson.
    • Woods led the team in routes despite playing only three snaps Q4.
    • Metchie got 69% of snaps in the third quarter and 86% in the fourth.
• The Texans shifted to more two-TE looks and less three-wide stuff with Brown sidelined. That allowed Brevin Jordan to get 51% of snaps and a TD catch even with Dalton Schultz handling his full workload.
  • Schultz's route share (61%) was a bit lower than usual, but he took 79% of snaps overall.
• QB C.J. Stroud played a clean but unspectacular game his first week back from concussion protocol. He was sacked once and didn't turn the ball over.

Stock ⬆️:   WR Nico Collins

Stock ⬇️:   WR Treylon Burks

  Titans Injuries 🚑: QB Will Levis (foot) / G Daniel Brunskill (ankle)   

  Texans Injuries 🚑: WR Robert Woods (hip) / LT Laremy Tunsil (groin) 

Raiders (20) at Colts (23) 

Raiders Personnel: 11 - 89% / 12 - 0% / 6OL - 12%

74 Plays — 49 DBs — 8.5 aDOT — 30-of-47 for 299 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 2 sacks

• RB Zamir White dropped to 58% snap share with the Raiders playing from behind, but he took 26 of the 28 RB opportunities, functioning as a one-for-one replacement for Josh Jacobs (quad) for a third straight week.
• TE Austin Hooper got 85% of snaps and 80% of routes (but only three targets on 39 routes) with Michael Mayer sidelined by a toe injury again.
• WR Davante Adams overtook A.J. Brown as the season leader in team target share (33.1%).
  • Adams and Jakobi Meyers accounted for 31 of the 46 targets.
• WR Tre Tucker was targeted just five times on 39 routes but got way more playing time than Hunter Renfrow (16% of snaps, nine routes).

Colts Personnel: 11 - 62% / 12 - 30%

53 Plays — 24 DBs — 7.6 aDOT — 15-of-23 for 224 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack

• RB Jonathan Taylor got 66% of snaps, 54% of routes and 22 of the 30 RB opportunities.
  • Zack Moss (arm) missed a second straight game. Taylor's workload was similar to the first, with Sermon and Goodson pitching in some.
• TE Will Mallory didn't play much after seeing his playing time (and production) go up quite a bit the week before. Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson both doubled the rookie's route count.
• WR Alec Pierce scored a 58-yard TD on his lone target. Josh Downs also had a big play but was targeted only twice and saw his snap/route shares dip with the Colts using more heavy personnel (Alie-Cox + Granson) while nursing a lead.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Jonathan Taylor

Stock ⬇️:   WR Hunter Renfrow

Saints (23) at Buccaneers (13) 

Saints Personnel: 11 - 36% / 12 - 20% / 6OL - 13%

70 Plays — 35 DBs — 4.9 aDOT — 25-of-34 for 208 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 1 sack

• TE Juwan Johnson caught three passes early in the game, including a TD, before missing a few snaps due to a shoulder injury. He then returned and caught five more passes.
  • He's scored in three straight games.
  • He has more targets the past two weeks than in his previous five games combined
  • 53.7 percent of his 2023 yardage (and 75% of his TDs) came in the past three games.  
• RB Alvin Kamara injured his ankle in the second quarter and missed the second half.
  • Jamaal Williams played 78% of snaps after halftime and got 14 carries and three targets after the break.
  • Kendre Miller (ankle) was inactive again, and reportedly suffered a minor setback in practice last week. Kamara and Williams were the only tailbacks active Sunday.
• WR Rashid Shaheed dropped to 54% snap share and 66% route share.
• The Saints can still make the playoffs as either the No. 4 seed (NFC South champ) or No. 7.
  • No. 4 = Saints win (over ATL) + Bucs loss (to CAR)
  • No. 7 = Saints win + Seahawks lose (at ARZ) + Packers lose (at CHI)

Buccaneers Personnel: 11 - 82% / 12 - 10%

50 Plays — 35 DBs — 8.4 aDOT — 22-of-33 for 309 yards — 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 2 sacks

• RB Chase Edmonds surprisingly got more targets than Rachaad White, but White still got nearly twice as many routes and three times as many snaps.
• WR Trey Palmer was a bright spot for the Bucs, finally putting up a strong receiving line after nearly four months of large snap/route shares.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Jamaal Williams / TE Juwan Johnson

Stock ⬇️:   WR Rashid Shaheed

  Saints Injuries 🚑: RB Alvin Kamara (ankle) / OT Landon Young (knee)    

49ers (27) at Commanders (10) 

49ers Personnel: 11 - 34% / 12 - 13% / 21 - 43%

68 Plays — 29 DBs — 7.3 aDOT — 22-of-28 for 230 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 1 sack

• RB Christian McCaffrey injured his calf in the third quarter and missed the rest of the game. With the Niners clinching the No. 1 seed, there's almost no chance of McCaffrey playing Week 18. He can focus on getting ready for a divisional playoff game Jan. 20.
  • Elijah Mitchell dominated work after McCaffrey's exit, but Jordan Mason should also get involved Week 18 with the Niners locked in for the No. 1 seed.

Commanders Personnel: 11 - 74% / 12 - 14%

43 Plays — 29 DBs — 4.7 aDOT — 17-of-28 for 169 yards — 1 TD, 2 INTs, 1 sack

• RB Brian Robinson returned to his pre-injury role after missing two games with a hamstring strain.
• WR Jahan Dotson turned in his third goose egg of the season. He has 141 yards and 23 targets over the past seven games, following a three-game hot stretch mid-season with 220 yards and two TDs on 26 targets.
• The Commanders are now in position for the No. 2 overall pick, though a loss next week doesn't guarantee they keep it given how close their strength of schedule difference is with the Patriots.
  • The Cardinals, on the other hand, have played a much tougher schedule. They need a loss plus a Commanders or Patriots win to move back up from fourth to second or third.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Elijah Mitchell

Stock ⬇️:   WR Jahan Dotson

  49ers Injuries 🚑: RB Christian McCaffrey (calf)   

  Commanders Injuries 🚑: CB Christian Holmes (concussion) / CB Tariq Castro-Fields (arm) 

Bengals (17) at Chiefs (25) 

Bengals Personnel: 11 - 55% / 12 - 21%

71 Plays — 39 DBs — 7.4 aDOT — 19-of-33 for 197 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 6 sacks

• WR Tee Higgins suffered a hamstring injury for the third time this season. He missed most of the second half.
  • Trenton Irwin filled in for Higgins, after running behind Andrei Iosivas the week before in Chase's absence. In other words, Iosivas is the backup for Chase and Irwin the backup for Higgins. (I'm not sure if that means Charlie Jones is the backup for Tyler Boyd or if it's also Irwin.)
• WR Ja'Marr Chase didn't quite get his normal workload but still led the team in routes (and tied for the lead in targets) in his first game back from an AC joint sprain.
• TE Tanner Hudson went up to 64% route share and tied Chase for the team lead in targets.
• The Bengals seem to have found their long-term backup QB in Jake Browning, but I think the last two weeks put to rest any notion that they might be able to trade him for a significant haul to a QB-needy team that wants to give him a shot as a starter.

Chiefs Personnel: 11 - 49% / 12 - 38% / 13 - 11%

53 Plays — 31 DBs — 5.5 aDOT — 21-of-29 for 245 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks

• RB Isiah Pacheco made it through concussion protocol on a short week and took on his largest snap and route shares of the season while piling up 25 touches for 165 total yards and a touchdown.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) was inactive, and Jerick McKinnon (groin) is on IR through at least the first round of the playoffs.
• WR Rashee Rice was having a slow afternoon until he caught two passes for 78 yards late in the third quarter to set up a field goal. He got behind the Bengals defense for a 67-yard gain but couldn't quite break away to find the end zone.
  • Rice saw nearly all his air yards on that one play, otherwise making a living on the short, quick passes that have sustained him for the past two months.
• The Chiefs used more multi-TE sets and less three-wide looks than usual, and it mostly worked apart from their struggles converting scoring chances into TDs rather than FGs.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Isiah Pacheco / TE Tanner Hudson

Stock ⬇️:   QB Jake Browning / WR Andrei Iosivas

  Bengals Injuries 🚑: WR Tee Higgins (hamstring)   

Chargers (9) at Broncos (16) 

Chargers Personnel: 11 - 83% / 12 - 16%

63 Plays — 39 DBs — 7.7 aDOT — 24-of-38 for 220 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack

• WR Alex Erickson tied Quentin Johnston for the route lead (87%) and put up 7-98-0 on eight targets with both Keenan Allen (heel) and Joshua Palmer (concussion) inactive.
  • Keelan Doss played ahead of Jalen Guyton and Derius Davis as the No. 3 receiver, getting 82% of routes and 5-25-0 on eight targets.
• TE Gerald Everett continues to see plenty of volume while struggling for efficiency with QB Easton Stick filling in.
• RB Austin Ekeler topped 70% snap share for a second straight week and got 15 of the 20 RB opportunities.

Broncos Personnel: 11 - 61% / 12 - 10% / 21 - 10% / 6OL - 10%

67 Plays — 34 DBs — 6.6 aDOT — 20-of-32 for 224 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks

• RB Jaleel McLaughlin was significantly involved early on for a second straight week, taking a bunch of the touches that'd been going to Javonte Williams before late December, though Williams nonetheless ended up with 18 touches.
  • McLaughlin has looked better than Williams all year, and it shows in their stats. Williams may very well bounce back next year in his second season after a serious injury, but don't discount the possibility of McLaughlin usurping him. Whatever the gap is between their early offseason ADPs... it should probably be smaller.
    • Samaje Perine is under contract for 2024, but his $3 million in compensation is all non-guaranteed. I'm guessing the Broncos release him.
• WR Jerry Jeudy took a few less snaps than usual despite Courtland Sutton (concussion) being inactive. I'm not sure if that's because Jeudy was dealing with an illness or because he just isn't very good / Sean Payton doesn't like him.
  • Whatever the case, Brandon Johnson was the runaway team leader in route share (97%), with Jeudy being a distant second at 68% (though he tied for the team lead with six targets).
    • Rookie WR Marvin Mims (hamstring) also was inactive.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Jaleel McLaughlin

Stock ⬇️:   RB Javonte Williams

  Broncos Injuries 🚑: RT Mike McGlinchey (ribs)

Steelers (30) at Seahawks (23) 

Steelers Personnel: 11 - 55% / 12 - 21% / 13 - 17%

71 Plays — 24 DBs — 12.1 aDOT — 19-of-24 for 274 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack

• The Steelers jumped out to an early lead behind a fast start from Jaylen Warren, followed by a bunch of big runs and a pair of TDs from Najee Harris.
  • The RBs combined for 44 touches, while Pittsburgh's other skill-position players combined for 17 targets (all to Pickens/DJ/Freiermuth, none to the ancillary guys).
  • Harris enters Week 18 needing 77 rushing yards to reach 1,000 for a third time in three NFL seasons. The Steelers can't play for stats while battling for a wild-card spot, but it's the type of thing they might consider if the Ravens rest starters and Pittsburgh ends up with a comfortable lead.
• QB Mason Rudolph will start Week 18 at Baltimore, even though Kenny Pickett (ankle) should be healthy enough to play.
• It's technically a bit more complicated once we include the possibility of ties, but basically what the Steelers need in Week 18 is a win and either a Jaguars loss or a Bills loss.

Seahawks Personnel: 11 - 69% / 12 - 16% / 13 - 14%

49 Plays — 34 DBs — 7.3 aDOT — 23-of-33 for 290 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack

• RB Kenneth Walker injured his shoulder late in the game, allowing Zach Charbonnet to take 13 of 14 snaps in the fourth quarter (though Charbonnet likely would've played a lot anyway with the Seahawks trailing by multiple scores).
• WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored an early touchdown but saw just one other target. 
• Excluding the possibility of ties, Seattle makes the playoffs with a win over Arizona in Week 18 AND a Packers loss to the Bears.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Najee Harris / WR George Pickens

Stock ⬇️:   QB Kenny Pickett (ankle)

  Seahawks Injuries 🚑: RB Kenneth Walker (shoulder) / RT Abraham Lucas (knee) / CB Artie Burns (knee) / C Evan Brown (concussion)

Packers (33) at Vikings (10) 

Packers Personnel: 11 - 48% / 12 - 52%

73 Plays — 34 DBs — 10.4 aDOT — 25-of-34 for 293 yards — 3 TDs, 0 INT, 0 sacks

• WR Jayden Reed had a huge first half, including two TDs, but then missed the second half with a chest injury. He's been listed on injury reports with a chest injury for the past month or so, but it was his foot that kept him out of the previous game.
  • WRs Christian Watson (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (chest) were inactive for the game.
• WR Bo Melton took advantage of all the injuries again, tossing up 6-105-1 on a team-high nine targets after catching four of six targets for 44 yards the week before.
  • Rather impressive how the Packers have gotten significant contributions from Melton (2022 seventh-round pick), Wicks (2023 fifth-rounder) and Malik Heath (2023 UDFA) at various times this season. Wicks is the one I'd want (and have) in dynasty, and I'd also add that Romeo Doubs looks less impressive in light of his repeated failure to command targets while playing with so many different guys.
• The Packers clinch a playoff spot with a Week 18 win over Chicago. They'll be the No. 6 seed if the Rams lose to the 49ers or the No. 7 seed if the Rams also win.
  • If the Packers lose, they still have a tiny chance to make the playoffs...

Vikings Personnel: 11 - 75% / 12 - 21%

52 Plays — 36 DBs — 7.5 aDOT — 18-of-32 for 180 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 4 sacks

• Jaren Hall's second NFL start lasted longer than his first, but he again didn't make it through the entire game (this time he was benched for Nick Mullens... earlier in the season Hall played well early on in a game against Atlanta but suffered a concussion and was replaced by Joshua Dobbs).
• RB Ty Chandler was still the lead runner, but Alexander Mattison got 40% of snaps after barely playing the previous week in his first game back from an ankle sprain.
• The Vikings technically aren't eliminated. They need four things to happen:
  • A) Beat the Lions
  • B) Packers lose (to CHI)
  • C) Seahawks lose (to ARZ)
  • D) Saints lose (to ATL)  OR  Bucs lose (to CAR)

Stock ⬆️:   WR Bo Melton

Stock ⬇️:   QB Jaren Hall / RB Ty Chandler

  Packers Injuries 🚑: WR Jayden Reed (chest) / RB AJ Dillon (stinger) / LB Isaiah McDuffie (head)

  Vikings Injuries 🚑: RG Ed Ingram (shoulder)