NFL Game Previews: Jets-49ers Monday Night Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

N.Y. Jets (+4.5) at San Francisco, o/u 43.5
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

This is the first time Robert Saleh will get a crack at his old team, just in case you thought the Jets needed any more motivation than they would be getting from Aaron Rodgers' return. The 40-year-old QB lasted three snaps in his first season with New York, so just getting through the first drive should be an improvement, but the team needs him to have something left in the tank if it's going to finally be a contender in 2024. Saleh's defense has been consistently elite, and consistently let down by the team's offense. Rodgers has the weapons at his disposal, headlined by Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, but he's in uncharted territory given his age and the severity of the injury he's coming back from. I kind of feel like I should go on a rant about the kinds of podcasts Rodgers was choosing to go on when he had all that free time, but I'll give him credit for being smart enough to choose continuing his NFL career over the opportunity to be the presidential running mate for a brain worm piloting a human suit. His extra-curricular yapping isn't the only potential locker room distraction, though, as the Haason Reddick trade blew up in the faces of the front office. If the Jets have another season in which they can't get out of their own way, Saleh could be toast.

For the second time in five years, the 49ers' Super Bowl hopes died in February at the hands of Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City. Kyle Shanahan won't need to go back to the drawing board, but it does feel like the window might be closing as players like Brandon Aiyuk get big contracts and Christian McCaffrey marches toward 2,000 career touches and 30 years of age. Losing first-round pick Ricky Pearsall for the start of the campaign feels a bit ominous too. Brock Purdy proved last season he was no flash in the pan, though, and even if the team's skill-position group sees some short-term attrition, the QB has no shortage of options to throw to with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle etc. still around. The Nick Bosa-led defense was also excellent once again, and the team once again promoted from within for a new DC with Nick Sorensen getting the gig. Not counting Steve Wilks last year, who already had head-coaching experience, the last two San Francisco defensive coordinators have gone on to head coaching jobs (Saleh, and DeMeco Ryans), so Sorensen could be set up nicely for the 2026 or 2027 hiring cycle. His unit will be short-handed to begin the season, with Dre Greenlaw out and Talanoa Hufanga not 100 percent healthy yet, but the Niners always seem to have a replacement handy.

Key Info

NYJ injuries: EDGE Reddick (DNR, contract dispute)
SF injuries: RB McCaffrey (questionable, calf), RB Elijah Mitchell (IR, hamstring), RB Isaac Guerendo (questionable, groin), WR Pearsall (NFL, chest), WR Jauan Jennings (questionable, ankle), LB Greenlaw (PUP, Achilles), S Hufanga (questionable, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NYJ DFS targets: none
SF DFS targets: none

NYJ DFS fades: none
SF DFS fades: Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle

Weather notes: 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Hall jets (cough) for 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Rodgers looks rusty, throwing for 220 yards and a TD to Wilson. McCaffrey piles up 120 scrimmage yards and a score, while Jordan Mason also bangs in a touchdown. Purdy throws for 270 yards and two TDs, hitting Samuel and Aiyuk. 49ers 34-17

EARLY SUNDAY

Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Atlanta, o/u 42.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Welcome to the first annual Arthur Smith Bowl! The former Atlanta head coach is now the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh, so all the frustration felt by those with Kyle Pitts shares in 2023 can be visited on anyone rostering Pat Freiermuth this year. The Steelers' backfield is at least a more natural fit for the kind of timeshare Smith prefers, with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren both having their strengths, and in theory Russell Wilson should be an upgrade on the QBs he had at his disposal at his last job. For all the flack Smith got from fantasy GMs, the Falcons offense wasn't actually terrible last season. The big issue was a bottom-10 finish in giveaways, which is what happens when Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke are under center for you. The team was middle of the pack in overall yards per play. The defense is still stout and led by the likes of T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, and it added Patrick Queen to be the new tackling machine in the middle. Mike Tomlin will also get them to play over their heads and win at least two games they have no business winning, which is always nice.

On the other hand, the Steelers don't have anything close to the wealth of skill-player talent that the Falcons have amassed the last few years. Pitts (fourth overall in 2021), Drake London (eighth in 2022) and Bijan Robinson (eighth in 2023) are a trio that in terms of pure upside, few teams can match, and the fact that their former OC couldn't seem to figure out that the ball was better off in their hands than Tyler Allgeier's or Jonnu Smith's isn't a mark in his favor. New head coach Raheem Morris brought Rams QB coach Zac Robinson with him from Los Angeles to be the new offensive coordinator, and a Sean McVay trainee should find a more efficient and dangerous distribution model. Running the show for Robinson, of course, will be Kirk Cousins, fresh off an Achilles tear that ended his Vikings tenure prematurely. Cousins never had issues feeding his big dogs in Minnesota, and there are plenty of similarities between him and Matthew Stafford, so on paper the unit should be taking a big leap in 2024. The bigger question is what Morris can do with a defense that had trouble generating splash plays, or just getting off the field, last year. His offseason plan seems to have been to bring in known commodities, so Matthew Judon bolsters the pass rush while Justin Simmons reinforces the secondary, making it very clear that the franchise is focused on short-term improvement and a playoff spot.

Key Info

PIT injuries: QB Wilson (questionable, calf), WR Roman Wilson (questionable, ankle)
ATL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
PIT DFS targets: Jaylen Warren
ATL DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: none
ATL DFS fades: Falcons DST

Weather notes: dome

The Scoop

Harris bangs out 70 yards, while Warren adds 60 combined yards and a receiving score. Russ throws for 220 yards and a second TD to George Pickens. Robinson piles up 130 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Cousins shines in his Atlanta debut, throwing for 270 yards and TDs to London and Ray-Ray McCloud. Falcons 27-20

Arizona (+6.5) at Buffalo, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

I remain skeptical about Jonathan Gannon. The Cardinals did show some flickers of life in his first season as head coach — three of their four wins came against playoff teams — but in each case the result seemed to have more to do with the opposition, especially their Week 17 win over the Eagles. (It's also hard to ignore that all three of those playoff teams got blown out in the wild-card round.) Gannon's also done all the stuff that's a hallmark of coaches who can't get past their own ego and flame out quickly, like alienating or jettisoning respected veterans who might challenge his authority, but you're not here for armchair psychology from 2,000 miles away. The team does have some assets on offense, starting with the crown jewel of its 2024 draft, Marvin Harrison. The second-generation wideout is basically the prototype of a modern No. 1 receiver, giving Kyler Murray the kind of target he hasn't had since he was chucking passes to DeAndre Hopkins in 2020. Harrison is joined by third-year tight end Trey McBride, who led the team in receptions last year, and 2023 third-round pick Michael Wilson, who could have a bit of a breakout with defenses focused on the other two guys. OC Drew Petzing comes out of Kevin Steanski's coaching tree, though, and the passing attack has never been a strength of Stefanski's. The offense is likely going to run through Murray's legs and the backfield duo of James Conner and 2024 third-round pick Trey Benson. Conner's the lead, but he's never played a full season in his career. While he's coming off career-best production in 2023, scaling back Conner's workload and giving the kid significant touches might be in everyone's best interest. As for the defense ... well, let's just say their best defensive plan is for the offense to put together sustained drives.

The Bills have won double-digit games in five consecutive seasons and won four straight AFC East titles, but so far all those regular-season wins have led to just one appearance in the conference championship. It's tough to find too much fault in Sean McDermott or Josh Allen for that lack of playoff success, as three of those postseason runs were ended by Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, but at some point they'll need to get past their nemesis in Kansas City, or things in Buffalo will need to change. The roster continues to lose talent too, so the Bills' window may already have closed. The list of departures this offseason includes Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Tre'Davious White, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, and aside from selecting wideout Keon Coleman and safety Cole Bishop in the second round of the draft, there weren't a lot of reinforcements brought in who might make a big impact, with internal improvements from players like Khalil Shakir and Kaiir Elam needed to cover the other holes. That's going to put even more pressure on Allen to carry the team. The 28-year-old will probably be productive — he's averaged 4,385 passing yards and 34.3 passing TDs over the last four seasons, and his 15 rushing TDs last year were a career high — but his 18 interceptions in 2023 were a clear sign he was already trying to do too much. Maybe adding Ray Davis to James Cook in the backfield will give OC Joe Brady the confidence to lean more heavily on the non-Allen parts of his running game, but don't count on it.

Key Info

ARI injuries: WR Zay Jones (out, suspension)
BUF injuries: LB Matt Milano (IR, bicep)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
ARI DFS targets: none
BUF DFS targets: Josh Allen, James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Dalton Kincaid, Bills DST

ARI DFS fades: none
BUF DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 10-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Conner gains 70 yards. Murray throws for 230 yards and a TD to Harrison. Cook picks up 90 yards and a score. Allen erupts for 330 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Kincaid, Samuel and Shakir (who tops 100 yards), and he runs one in himself. Bills 38-13

Tennessee (+4) at Chicago, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

New Titans head coach Brian Callahan has his work cut out for him. While it certainly won't be hard to install a more dynamic scheme than the one Tim Kelly ran under Mike Vrabel, Will Levis remains a giant question at quarterback. If the 2023 second-round pick doesn't pan out, it probably won't matter how good Callahan's offense is, or how much talent gets added around the Kentucky product. Levis did show some flashes of legit upside as a rookie, though, and while his four-TD debut against the Falcons is what obviously stands out, he also had intriguing performances on the road against the Jags and Dolphins. Tennessee has given the kid some weapons, too. Henry will be replaced by the duo of holdover Tyjae Spears and free-agent signing Tony Pollard, while the wide receiver room got bolstered by the additions of Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, who followed Callahan over from Cincinnati. This is Treylon Burks' last chance to prove he's not a first-round bust, too, while DeAndre Hopkins is trying to prove he can still dominate, at least when he's healthy. New DC Dennard Wilson was Baltimore's DB coach last year, so it's perhaps no surprise the big acquisition on that side of the ball was cornerback L'Jarius Sneed. The Titans were actually in the top 10 in yards per play allowed and points per game allowed in 2023, so the talent is there, but Vrabel's old-school ground-and-pound philosophy wasn't working. If Levis rises to the occasion, Tennessee's one of my 'surprise playoff team' picks for the year. If he doesn't, well, the Titans could be drafting high enough in 2025 to land his replacement.

Speaking of drafting new franchise QBs ... the Bears timed the market perfectly. Not only did they get Caleb Williams at 1.1, who shows every sign of being The Guy for Chicago — a franchise that hasn't had The Guy at quarterback since, oh, World War II or so — the front office has surrounded him with an enviable collection of skill talent. D'Andre Swift, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and 2024 first-round pick Rome Odunze form a strong core of targets, putting Williams in position to hit the ground running. That also puts a lot of pressure on Matt Eberflus and first-year OC Shane Waldron too, but Waldron came out of Sean McVay's coaching tree and has the resurrection of Geno Smith's career as a feather in his cap, so the offense should be in good hands. The defense remains a work in progress under Eberflus though — 31st in sacks last year, and bottom half of the league in yards per play allowed and points per game allowed — and while the Montez Sweat pick-up last season will help the pass rush, and Kevin Byard was signed to shore up the secondary, this still seems like a unit that's striving for "good enough" rather than elite. That's a dangerous bet to make in a division with the Lions and Packers.

Key Info

TEN injuries: WR Hopkins (questionable, knee)
CHI injuries: WR Allen (questionable, heel), DE Sweat (questionable, toe)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
TEN DFS targets: Tony Pollard / Tyjae Spears
CHI DFS targets: DJ Moore

TEN DFS fades: Calvin Ridley
CHI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Pollard leads the TEN backfield with 70 combined yards and a receiving score, while Spears adds 60 yards. Levis throws for 240 yards and a second TD to Boyd. Swift debuts with 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Williams shines, firing up 270 yards and two TDs, both to Moore (who tops 100 yards). Bears 24-17

New England (+7.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Bill Belichick's reputation took some hits in his final couple years with the Patriots, and looking at the state of the roster he left behind him, it's no wonder no team wanted to hand him the reins if he insisted on full control over personnel decisions. New coach Jerod Mayo has a huge task in front of him, and 2024 is pretty much a write-off, with the most interesting thing happening being the countdown to Drake Maye taking over at quarterback. As New England's going to lose a lot of games regardless, there may not actually be a lot of internal or external pressure to get the third overall pick in this year's draft into the lineup. The Pats don't get their bye until Week 14, which probably removes the most natural spot for his NFL debut from the equation. I'm circling Week 9 — it's a road game in Tennessee, which is about as low-pressure as you can get, but Maye would also then duck most of the toughest defenses on New England's schedule this year, including both Jets games and a tilt against Nick Bosa and the 49ers. In the meantime, Jacoby Brissett will give the offense a "consistent floor," which is pretty meaningless when that floor is in the sub-basement, and Rhamondre Stevenson will do the best he can behind a patchwork offensive line. Really, the date for Maye's debut will be whenever offensive line coach Scott Peters thinks the poor kid won't get killed in the pocket. The defense was routinely more than the sum of its parts under Belichick, but it remains to be seen whether Mayo can work the same magic. The way things worked out with Matthew Judon isn't exactly encouraging, though, even if that's less on Mayo and more on a front office firmly focused on the future.

Joe Burrow only played about three fully healthy games in 2023, starting the season nursing a calf injury and then suffering a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11 just as he was getting going. In those three games, though, Cincy beat San Francisco and Buffalo and before getting C.J. Strouded by Houston, so the Bengals will probably be fine. The big area of concern heading into 2024 is in the wide receiver corps. Ja'Marr Chase sat out all the things this offseason looking for a contract extension, while Tee Higgins resigned himself to playing on his franchise tag and Tyler Boyd left for Tennessee. That might actually create some opportunities for younger wideouts — Andrei Iosivas is one of my favorite deep-league sleepers this year, in redraft or dynasty, and 2024 third-round pick Jermaine Burton has the talent do some damage if he can get his head straight. The backfield also got a makeover, with Zack Moss and Chase Brown looking to fill a Joe Mixon-shaped hole. The Bengals' defense sagged badly at times last season, finishing dead last in yards per play allowed, but if the offense is back to its usual form or something close to it, winning shootouts won't be as big of an issue.

Key Info

NE injuries: RB Antonio Gibson (questionable, hip), WR Kendrick Bourne (PUP, knee)
CIN injuries: WR Chase (questionable, rest), WR Higgins (doubtful, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NE DFS targets: Ja'Lynn Polk
CIN DFS targets: Andrei Iosivas

NE DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: Zack Moss / Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop

Stevenson ekes out 40 yards. Brissett throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Polk, but also tosses a pick-six to Dax Hill. Brown leads the CIN backfield with 70 yards. Burrow throws for 280 yards and two TDs, hitting Iosivas and Trenton Irwin, but Chase also loses a fumble that Kyle Dugger returns to the house. making things semi-respectable for New England. Bengals 27-17

Houston at Indianapolis (+3), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

There really isn't much left to say about C.J. Stroud's incredible rookie season, but his heroics also overshadowed a pretty remarkable turnaround from the Houston defense under DeMeco Ryans. In 2022, the unit was 26th in yards per play allowed, 27th in points per game allowed. The Texans' defense was on the field for more plays than anyone else and were 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed and 31st in rushing TDs allowed. The secondary posted pretty good raw numbers, but only because no one ever needed to throw against it. In 2023? Ryans had his defense just outside the top 10 in PPG allowed, second in yards per carry allowed and sixth in rushing yards per game allowed. In the offseason, the Texans added Danielle Hunter and Azeez Al-Shaair, and Will Anderson, Derek Stingley and Jalen Pitre are only getting better. Yeah yeah, Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, yadda yadda yadda. We know they'll score points. If the Texans feature an elite defense as well though, or near to it, this isn't just a playoff team. It's a legit Super Bowl contender.

The Colts didn't get a chance to see whether their own rookie QB could do historic things, as Anthony Richardson stayed healthy for only four games before needing season-ending shoulder surgery. Reports over the summer about his recovery were extremely positive, but his performance in the preseason was decidedly less so. Richardson could become one of the most electric two-way threats in the league as soon as 2024, or he could just be a more fragile Justin Fields, which I guess would make him the next RGIII. Jonathan Taylor gives the Colts a strong foundation for their offense even if the passing game is shaky, and Richardson does have a respectable collection of young wideouts at his disposal headlined by Michael Pittman, but Stroud is setting a very high bar in the AFC South arms race. Richardson's development is the key for Indy this season, but Shane Steichen has been through that process before in Philly with Jalen Hurts. I'm optimistic Richardson will become a franchise QB, even if there are some bumps in the road in 2024.

Key Info

HOU injuries: WR Josh Downs (out, ankle), K Matt Gay (questionable, sports hernia)
IND injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
HOU DFS targets: none
IND DFS targets: Adonai Mitchell

HOU DFS fades: none
IND DFS fades: Jonathan Taylor

Weather notes: dome

The Scoop

Mixon collects 80 yards and a TD. Stroud throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Diggs, Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. Taylor manages 70 yards. Richardson throws for 250 yards and TDs to Pittman and Mitchell while also running in a score, but he also commits two turnovers that prove costly. Texans 28-27

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Miami, o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Speaking of that AFC South arms race ... Lawrence was supposed to be the class of the division after being taken first overall in 2021. The Urban Meyer nightmare didn't help, but after a strong rebound in 2022, Lawrence stagnated last season. Injuries didn't help, but he didn't show many glimpses of being a QB who can put the team on his back and carry them to a win. That's an issue for a team that isn't exactly loaded with skill players on offense. The roster around Lawrence has some talent — Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are solid triplets, and 2024 first-round pick Brian Thomas could emerge as a true WR1 — but the fourth-year quarterback has to be the one to put it all together. It would also help if the defense played up to its pedigree. New DC Ryan Nielsen ran the Atlanta defense last year and worked under Dennis Allen in New Orleans before that, which isn't a great resume, but he has Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker and Foye Oluokun to work with up front. The secondary is the issue — bringing in Ronald Darby and Darnell Savage might stem the bleeding a bit, but Tyson Campbell is still set in a starting cornerback slot after giving up nine TDs and a 117.9 QB rating in coverage last year in only 11 games. He's better than that (PFF had him as a top-5 corner in 2022), and a scheme change can only help, but this is a tough way to begin an attempt at a bounce-back campaign.

For all the fireworks the Dolphins fired off in 2023, things really fizzled down the stretch. Yeah, they hung 70 points on the hapless Broncos in Week 3. That was more points than they managed in their last four games combined, including a 26-7 loss to the eventual champs in the wild-card round. Mike McDaniel may be a wunderkind offensive mind, but his speed-kills scheme hasn't exactly proven it can work when the weather gets cold, or against first-class defenses. KC held Miami to 21 total points in their two meetings, while the Bills held them to 20 points or less twice. Dallas, Philly and Baltimore also stifled Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and company. The Dolphins did erupt against the Jets in both their meetings, but that was later in the season when the New York defense was beginning to check out as it knew the offense wasn't going to give it any support — the aggregate score in those games was 64-13. Fantasy GMs won't have a big issue with rostering players who can rack up points against lesser defenses, but Miami's playoff chances may end relying on first-year DC Anthony Weaver, imported from Baltimore. Veterans Jordyn Brooks, Calais Campbell, Jordan Poyer and Kendall Fuller were also brought it to revive a unit that torched in 2023 almost as often as the opposition got lit up by the Dolphins' offense.

Key Info

JAC injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
MIA injuries: OLB Bradley Chubb (PUP, knee), CB Jalen Ramsey (questionable, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
JAC DFS targets: Evan Engram
MIA DFS targets: none

JAC DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 30-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Etienne gains 70 yards. Lawrence throws for 260 yards and two scores, hitting Kirk and Engram. De'Von Achane leads the MIA backfield with 110 combined yards and a touchdown, while Raheem Mostert adds 80 yards and a TD. Tagovailoa throws for 320 yards and three scores, two to Hill (who tops 100 yards) and one to Jonnu Smith. Dolphins 35-17

Carolina (+4) at New Orleans, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

In some ways, the Panthers are in the same spot the Jaguars were in a couple years ago. The team used the first overall pick on a presumed franchise quarterback, then immediately flushed his first season of development down the drain with a chaotic coaching situation. Whether Bryce Young can bounce back the way Trevor Lawrence did remains to be seen, but Dave Canales gets some credit for saving Baker Mayfield's career in Tampa Bay, and he was the QB coach in Seattle for Russell Wilson's last good stretch and Geno Smith's resurgence, so he's got the qualifications for the salvage job. Carolina also brought in Diontae Johnson to provide a second steady, veteran target for Young alongside Adam Thielen and help mentor young wideouts Xavier Legette and Jonathan Mingo. At some point this season Jonathon Brooks will also join the backfield, though until then Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders (maybe?) will try to provide some balance to the offense. If Young can shake off his disastrous 2023, the Panthers could be a tougher out than anyone expects, though a leap to actual competitiveness this year might be asking too much.

The Saints weren't what anyone would call good last year, but they still only missed out on a wild-card spot on a tiebreaker. Derek Carr's contract made him an easy target, but he put up the same kind of numbers he did with the Raiders for the most part. Alvin Kamara posted his highest reception total since 2020, Chris Olave's production inched forward ... the issue was mainly that the offense's ceiling was limited by Pete Carmichael's stale offense. He's now been replaced as OC by Klint Kubiak, who worked under Kevin Stefanski in Minnesota and took over from him in 2021, only to get swept out as part of the post-Mike Zimmer housecleaning even though he didn't do a terrible job. Kubiak spent 2023 on Kyle Shanahan's staff, so you have to think he's only gotten better and added some wrinkles to his scheme. Carr isn't Kirk Cousins and Olave isn't Justin Jefferson, but they should be put in a better position to succeed this year. Dennis Allen's defense is aging, but there's still some players around who can make an impact in Marshon Lattimore, Cameron Jordan, Tyrann Mathieu and Demario Davis. The Saints look like one of many teams who might squeak into the playoffs, but probably won't make much noise if they get there.

Key Info

CAR injuries: RB Brooks (NFI, knee), TE Ian Thomas (out, calf), OLB D.J. Wonnum (PUP, quadricep)
NO injuries: RB Kendre Miller (IR, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CAR DFS targets: none
NO DFS targets: Alvin Kamara

CAR DFS fades: none
NO DFS fades: none

Weather notes: dome

The Scoop

Hubbard leads the CAR backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown. Young throws for 230 yards and a score to Thielen. Kamara strikes for 110 combined yards and a TD, while Taysom Hill also runs in a touchdown. Carr throws for 270 yards and two scores, finding Olave and Juwan Johnson. Saints 34-17

Minnesota at N.Y. Giants (+1.5), o/u 41.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

I'm not sure J.J. McCarthy needed a redshirt year, but he's getting one anyway after undergoing knee surgery. That leaves the Vikings' offense in the hands of Sam Darnold. Eep. Darnold did spend last year learning under Kyle Shanahan, but the third overall pick in the 2018 Draft flamed out with the Jets and badly squandered a second chance in Carolina, so it's hard to have much faith he'll turn things around completely. Darnold does have Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to throw to, and eventually T.J. Hockenson too, and Kevin O'Connell will scheme to what strengths he has, so I think he could be adequate. That's probably not enough to get Minnesota into the playoffs given the state of the rest of the roster, but yanevahknow. Aaron Jones will be fine out of the backfield when he's healthy, but Brian Flores' pass rush is led by Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard, both of whom were signed to big contracts coming off career years, and 35-year-old Harrison Smith and 33-year-old Stephon Gilmore are expected to have key roles in the secondary. There's a lot more that can go wrong than can go right.

If I were placing a bet on which head coach gets fired first in 2024, Brian Daboll would be a very enticing target. Last year's semi-collapse to six wins was more of a market correction than anything after the Giants played over their heads in 2022, and they're still saddled with Daniel Jones as their starting quarterback. I know everyone loves Malik Nabers' upside — heck, I do too — but Jones' arm and Daboll's scheme aren't the foundation for a strong rookie campaign for a wideout, and New York's passing game doesn't even have the threat of Saquon Barkley to keep defenses closer to the line any more. Devin Singletary's decent, but he doesn't scare anybody, and secondaries will be salivating at the thought of more passes from Jones they can get their hands on. On the bright side, the defense will be less frenetic with Shane Bowen coming over from the Titans to replace Wink Martindale as DC — Tennessee was routinely near the bottom of the league in blitz percentage under Bowen. The Giants never needed to blitz that heavily, and they especially don't in 2024 with Brian Burns now coming off the other edge from Kayvon Thibodeaux. Less blitzing means more help for the young secondary, so maybe they'll hold Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to less than 40 points one of these days.

Key Info

MIN injuries: QB McCarthy (IR, knee), TE Hockenson (PUP, knee)
NYG injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIN DFS targets: none
NYG DFS targets: Giants DST

MIN DFS fades: Josh Oliver
NYG DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 9-10 mph wind

The Scoop

Jones picks up 80 yards and a TD, while Ty Chandler also scores a rushing touchdown. Darnold throws for less than 200 yards and gets sacked four times, but he does find Jefferson for a score. Singletary grinds out 70 yards. Jones throws for 250 yards and a TD to Darius Slayton while running in a score of his own, but he also gets picked off twice. Vikings 24-14

LATE SUNDAY

Las Vegas (+3) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The Raiders don't really seem like a team that has much of a plan. Letting Josh Jacobs walk and handing the starting RB job to Zamir White, and using their first-round pick on Brock Bowers even though they used a second-round pick on another tight end the year before, says youth movement on offense, but then they decline to trade Davante Adams despite the risk his production and market value are about to fall off a cliff at age 31, and then they name Gardner Minshew their starting quarterback. No-longer-interim head coach Antonio Pierce is doing the best he can with the hand he's been dealt, but appealing to silver and black pride will only get him so far. Bringing in Luke Getsy to be the new OC despite his unimpressive two-year stint in Chicago smacks of desperation as well. Pierce is a defensive coach though, and on that side of the ball he's got Maxx Crosby and ... well, that's about it. This team is a 2-6 start away from completely clearing the decks and rebuilding, and looking at their first-half schedule, 2-6 seems plausible.

The optimism surrounding Jim Harbaugh's return to the NFL to steer the Chargers' ship is nice and all, but the guy hasn't coached in the NFL in a decade. Pete Carroll pulled off a successful return after spending that long in the college game, but I'm hard-pressed to think of any other examples. I kind of need to see it before I'm fully buying in. Harbaugh signalled as clearly as possible what kind of team he intends to have when he brought in Greg Roman to be his OC, so ground and pound it is. Roman brought over two RBs from his Baltimore days in Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins to replace Austin Ekeler in the backfield, and the Bolts' offensive line should be up to the task, but Justin Herbert's skill set is very different than Lamar Jackson's. Herbert also comes into the season with his mobility limited due to a foot issue. It's been a long time since Roman had to work with a QB who didn't provide a rushing threat — even in Buffalo, he had Tyrod Taylor — so it'll be interesting to see if he can adapt until Herbert's 100 percent. The Chargers also haven't given him a lot of downfield passing options, with Joshua Palmer, potential 2023 first-round bust Quentin Johnston and 2024 second-round pick Ladd McConkey leading the receiving corps. Harbaugh's defense has some fun toys though, including Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, so win or lose, expect a lot of tight, low-scoring games.

Key Info

LV injuries: TE Bowers (questionable, foot)
LAC injuries: WR DJ Chark (questionable, hip)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LV DFS targets: Dylan Laube
LAC DFS targets: none

LV DFS fades: none
LAC DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

White gains 70 yards and a touchdown. Minshew throws for 240 yards and a TD to Adams but gets sacked five times. Dobbins leads the LAC backfield with 70 yards and a score, while Edwards adds 50 yards and a TD. Herbert throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Hayden Hurst. Chargers 24-23

Denver (+6) at Seattle, o/u 42.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Year Two for Sean Payton in Denver feels like it's actually Year One, since he's no longer stuck with a quarterback he never wanted. With Russell Wilson now in Pittsburgh, Payton's handing the reins to rookie Bo Nix, taken 12th overall in the draft. Nix was by far the most experienced of this year's first-round QBs, so while he may not have the athletic upside of even a Drake Maye or Michael Penix, in theory he'll make the smoothest transition to the pros. Nix doesn't have a wealth of targets at his disposal, though. Jerry Jeudy was also sent packing this offseason, so the Denver offense will be relying heavily on Javonte Williams returning to form in the backfield, and Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin (Nix's teammate at Oregon) emerging as downfield threats behind the team's one proven pass-catcher, Courtland Sutton. A healthy season from tight end Greg Dulcich would help too, but let's not ask for miracles. The defense is what it is around Patrick Surtain, so the Broncos might not be ready to win many shootouts yet, but you can see the path forward Payton has laid out.

Year One of the post-Pete Carroll Era in Seattle, on the other hand, figures to be a lot more exciting. New head coach Mike Macdonald will attempt to transform the defense into a west-coast Ravens, while new OC Ryan Grubb is a completely and totally unproven commodity after coming up purely through the college ranks, so no one has any idea what the offense will look like. The Seahawks hedged their bets at quarterback by bringing in Sam Howell, but for now this is still Geno Smith's squad, and he still has a strong backfield duo to work with in Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, as well as a plus trio of wideouts in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Lockett could be fading, but a dead-cat bounce kind of season at age 31 can't discounted if Grubb is legit. Seattle's actually my pick for sneaky stack of the year — the offense could be very good, and the defense probably doesn't have the pieces yet to do what Macdonald wants it to do, especially at linebacker. That's a formula for a lot of higher-scoring games than expected.

Key Info

DEN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
SEA injuries: WR Lockett (questionable, thigh)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DEN DFS targets: Marvin Mims
SEA DFS targets: Tyler Lockett, Noah Fant

DEN DFS fades: none
SEA DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Williams bangs out 90 yards and a TD. Nix throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Lucas Krull. Walker rumbles for 120 yards and a score. Smith throws for 270 yards and two TDs, hitting Metcalf and Smith-Njigba. Seahawks 30-23

Dallas (+2.5) at Cleveland, o/u 41.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

You have to admire Jerry Jones' willingness to drag out contract negotiations with his players beyond all reason, to inevitably pay them more than he needed to. Truly a generous man. Micah Parsons' agents are already planning next year's camp hold-in. CeeDee Lamb got his extension just before the season started, but it doesn't look like any such deal is coming for Dak Prescott, who likely will become the NFL's first $60 million a season man in 2025 unless he suffers a season-ending injury or something. Even then, the Falcons gave a 36-year-old Kirk Cousins $45 million a year in similar circumstances, so I think Prescott will make out all right in free agency regardless. The Cowboys' offense was one of the most dangerous in the league last year, even with Mike McCarthy calling plays, and there's little reason to expect a huge regression on that side of the ball. Dallas didn't get much out of its backfield in 2023, so they doubled down on that approach by letting Tony Pollard walk and turning to a committee of fourth-year undrafted RB Rico Dowdle, who saw the first significant action of his career last season and managed a whopping 4.1 yards per carry, and the hollow shells that used to be Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook. Maybe one or both veterans has something left in the tank, but on paper this is by far the worst backfield in the league. Oh well, more pass attempts for Prescott in a contract year, I guess. The bigger concern for the Cowboys is on defense, where Dan Quinn and his ultra-aggressive ways have departed for Washington. Mike Zimmer returns to be DC (he had the job under Dave Campo and Bill Parcells in the early 2000s) and while his scheme has a strong track record, it may not be as fantasy-friendly as Quinn's "I'll trade big plays for turnovers and sacks all day every day" approach. There's still talent on that side of the ball though, with Trevon Diggs back to ball hawk and Parsons still wrecking QBs, but it may take a few weeks for the unit to get used to the new philosophy.

The Browns are in much the same spot as a franchise as the Cowboys are. They have no trouble racking up regular-season wins, but the roster's limitations get exposed in the playoffs. In Cleveland's case, by "roster limitations" I mean Deshaun Watson. He's played only 12 games the last three years, and he just hasn't looked like the same player he was prior to his shoulder surgery and off-field issues. The team's stuck with him given his contract, but at least this year it brought in a backup with some measurable upside in Jameis Winston. Kevin Stefanski's offense is also waiting to see if Nick Chubb will be the same after another serious knee injury, and until he's ready to go, Jerome Ford will handle lead back duties. The roster's already impressive array of targets got bolstered by the addition of Jerry Jeudy, who joins Amari Cooper and David Njoku, but it's hard to ignore that the passing game looked a lot better last year after Joe Flacco got up off his couch than it did with a healthy Watson. Myles Garrett and the defense will keep the team afloat, but without a QB who can take advantage of his talent and field-position advantages, it won't matter in January.

Key Info

DAL injuries: WR Lamb (CEL, personal), CB DaRon Bland (IR, foot)
CLE injuries: RB Chubb (PUP, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DAL DFS targets: Cowboys DST
CLE DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Jake Ferguson
CLE DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Dowdle leads the DAL backfield with 50 yards. Prescott throws for 260 yards and a TD to Jalen Tolbert, while KaVontae Turpin produces the season's first kickoff return touchdown. Ford gets stifled for 40 yards. Watson throws for 220 yards and a score to Cooper, but he throws two INTs and gets sacked four times — one of which results in a fumble that Parsons takes to the house. Cowboys 27-13

Washington (+3.5) at Tampa Bay, o/u 43.5
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Is it possible there's light at the end of the tunnel for the Washington franchise? New/competent ownership, new franchise quarterback, new head coach with an attitude and a track record of (gasp) learning from his mistakes ... I actually like the direction the team is headed in, and that hasn't been true for a long, long time. Dan Quinn does have his work cut out for him in 2024, though. Jayden Daniels could be legit, but Terry McLaurin is his only reliable target, and while Quinn should be able to put together a good pass rush, the Commanders arguably have the weakest secondary in the league. After his success in Dallas, Quinn's going to miss Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland something fierce, though 2024 second-round pick Mike Sainristil could develop into a ballhawk. In the short term, there will probably be more bad games than good ones for this defense, but at least I'm not expecting a third straight basement finish in the NFC East.

Baker Mayfield's career-best season came out of absolutely nowhere, but it was good enough to get the Buccaneers an NFC South crown and even a playoff win. Now, do it again. The easy comparison is to Geno Smith, who broke out in 2022 and took a step back in 2023, but Mayfield came into the league with a better pedigree. He also lost the supporting network that helped him turn his career around though, as Dave Canales left for Carolina. New OC Liam Coen cut his teeth on Sean McVay's staff, with a couple detours to the SEC to take the OC job in Kentucky that helped get Will Levis drafted. Coen was Mayfield's coordinator in 2022 when he had his late-season heroics for the Rams, so the duo should each know what they're getting into. The Bucs still have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan could be a third-round find, while Todd Bowles' defense finished in the top 10 in sacks and points per game allowed last year. The roster may not be a Super Bowl contender, but Tampa Bay should be in the postseason mix.

Key Info

WAS injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
TB injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
WAS DFS targets: none
TB DFS targets: Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Buccaneers DST

WAS DFS fades: Austin Ekeler
TB DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 30-75 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Brian Robinson leads the WAS backfield with 60 yards and a score. Daniels throws for 210 yards and a TD to McLaurin while adding 40 rushing yards and a touchdown. Rachaad White manages 60 yards. Mayfield throws for 270 yards and two TDs, both to Evans (who tops 100 yards). Commanders 21-17

SUNDAY NIGHT

L.A. Rams (+3.5) at Detroit, o/u 51.0 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

This is the third time the Rams and Lions have met since Matthew Stafford was traded for Jared Goff. The Rams won 28-19 in Week 7 of 2021, Dan Campbell's first season in Detroit, as Stafford posted a classic revenge game with 334 yards and three TDs. Detroit turned the table in the playoffs last year, eking out a 24-23 win in the wild-card round even as Stafford rung up another 367 yards and two TDs. That's a 5:0 TD:INT for Stafford against his former club. It'll probably be more of the same, with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both healthy and a shootout on the table given the way the Rams continue to shed name-brand talent on defense. L.A. did add Tre'Davious White, but he's played just 10 games the last two years and is coming back from a torn Achilles. Chris Shula got promoted from within to replace Raheem Morris as DC, so there will be continuity, and the team does have a pair of promising edge rushers in 2023 third-round pick Byron Young and 2024 first-round pick Jared Verse. The key to the Rams' defensive fortunes in 2024 might lie with undrafted rookie Omar Speights, who played well enough in camp and the preseason to make Ernest Jones expendable.

The Lions have gone from three wins to nine to 12 under Campbell, so I guess they're shooting for 15 this year if they want to keep the divisible by three thing going. No offense intended to the Packers, but they're the clear class of the NFC North. Goff leads an offense that has multiple threats in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams, plus Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the backfield, while the defense should continue to get better as Aidan Hutchinson, Jack Campbell and Brian Branch develop. The Lions also scooped up Carlton Davis from the Bucs to add some experience to the secondary. They may have even found the next Brandon Aubrey at kicker, snagging Jake Bates from the UFL after he booted a 64-yard game-winner for the Michigan Panthers in March. If the defense improves enough to not be a liability, 15 wins and a return to the NFC championship game seems well within reach, though Goff may have to do something about his ridiculous home-road splits if the team's going to have a winning record away from Ford Field.

Key Info

LAR injuries: TE Tyler Higbee (PUP, knee)
DET injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LAR DFS targets: none
DET DFS targets: none

LAR DFS fades: Kyren Williams
DET DFS fades: none

Weather notes: dome

The Scoop

Kyren Williams gains 70 yards, while Blake Corum adds 50. Stafford throws for 310 yards and three scores, two to Kupp and one to Nacua (who tops 100 yards). Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown, while Montgomery also bangs in a TD. Goff throws for for 330 yards and three touchdowns, finding Kalif Raymond, LaPorta and St. Brown (who tops 100 yards). Lions 35-27

THURSDAY NIGHT

Baltimore (+3) at Kansas City, o/u 46.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

This year the NFL kicks off the season with a rematch of last season's AFC championship (the NFC championship match will wait for Sunday night). The Ravens made a splash in the offseason by bringing in Derrick Henry to replace the game of "Who's Healthy Today?" they had been playing in their backfield, but otherwise this is largely the same team that came within a couple fourth-quarter drives that sputtered in the red zone of dethroning the champs. Lamar Jackson posted the best passing numbers of his career in everything but TDs while still adding plenty with his legs, and his efficiency could take another step forward in his second year under OC Todd Monken. If there's a concern for Baltimore, it's whether the defense can remain at the same elite level it was in 2023. The coaching staff lost a lot of brainpower — the new defensive coordinators in Miami and Tennessee both came from Mike Macdonald's staff, and oh yeah, Macdonald is now the head coach in Seattle. The Ravens still promoted from within as linebackers coach (and former player under John Harbaugh) Zachary Orr takes over as the new DC, and the scheme has always been Harbaugh's, but there could be some early bumps on that side of the ball as the new guys get settled into their roles. There's plenty of continuity on the roster, though, with Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, Nnamdi Madubuike and others anchoring a perennially strong unit.

I guess the two-time champs weren't distracted by off-field stuff after all. Kansas City brought home its third Super Bowl in five years under Patrick Mahomes, but the team did it in a relatively un-Mahomesian way, leaning on its defense and running game to grind opponents down rather than lighting them up through the air. That didn't seem to sit well with Andy Reid, who signed the speedy Marquise Brown to a one-year deal this spring before using a first-round pick on the speedier Xavier Worthy, hoping that one or both can take the tops off defense the way Tyreek Hill used to. That might actually work out in reverse — defenses could be more worried about the proven commodities underneath in Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, opening up some downfield shots for the new guys — but either way, secondaries will have a lot to deal with, even if Brown isn't healthy for the opener. L'Jarius Sneed is now a Titan, but otherwise the key pieces are back on Steve Spagnuolo's defense, and younger players like Trent McDuffie and George Karlaftis could be ready to take steps forward.

Key Info

BAL injuries: RB Keaton Mitchell (PUP, knee), RB Rasheen Ali (doubtful, neck) 
KC injuries: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (NFI, illness), WR Brown (out, shoulder)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BAL DFS targets: Ravens DST
KC DFS targets: Rashee Rice

BAL DFS fades: Zay Flowers, Nelson Agholor 
KC DFS fades: Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy 

Weather notes: 15-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Henry makes an impact in his Baltimore debut, rumbling for 90 yards and a touchdown. Jackson throws for less than 200 yards but hits Isaiah Likely for one TD and runs in another. Isiah Pacheco gains 80 yards. Mahomes throws for 240 yards and scores to Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, but gets picked off by Hamilton to end a late comeback attempt. Ravens 24-20

FRIDAY NIGHT

Green Bay (+2.5) vs. Philadelphia in Sao Paolo, o/u 48.5
Friday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The NFL's first ever game in Brazil features two NFC contenders who seemed headed in different directions at the end of 2023. The Packers won their last three regular-season game and then destroyed the Cowboys in the playoffs before falling just short against the 49ers in the divisional round. Jordan Love's breakout fueled that surge — his last eight regular-season starts, he posted a 70.3 percent completion rate, 7.7 YPA and 18:1 TD:INT. Love's got a mittful of talented young targets, which is great for him but rough on fantasy GMs trying to time the market on which of them might have big performances any given week, and Green Bay arguably upgraded its backfield in the offseason by swapping out Aaron Jones for the younger and somewhat less brittle Josh Jacobs, who is just two years removed from a rushing crown. Joe Barry got replaced as defensive coordinator by the unproven Jeff Hafley, who was plucked out of the college ranks and ran a variation of Pete Carroll's basic scheme at Boston College. That's a foundation for success as an NFL DC — Dan Quinn and Robert Saleh, and DeMeco Ryans under Saleh, all were grounded in Carroll's defense — but those guys weren't afraid to adapt and improve as offenses evolved. Whether Hafley can do that remains to be seen, but he's got a good base of talent to work with, particularly in the secondary.

The Eagles, on the other hand, ended 2023 in a tailspin, losing six of their last seven, including a first-round playoff exit against the Bucs. The defense was betrayed by aging cornerbacks, and the offense just looked lost. Nick Sirianni felt the heat and replaced both his coordinators with proven coaches, as former Cowboys and Chargers OC Kellen Moore will call plays and Vic Fangio will wrangle the defense. Neither is exactly a safe bet — Moore's playcalling got stale in Dallas, and his work with the Bolts last year wasn't exactly stellar. Fangio, meanwhile, is on his eighth NFL team as DC, and the last time he led a truly elite unit was in 2018 with Chicago. (To be fair, his 2021 Broncos were pretty good defensively too.) It wasn't just the coaching staff that saw big changes. Saquon Barkley was brought in to stabilize the backfield and significant draft capital was invested in the secondary. The biggest question for 2024, though, is how the offense in general is going to look without Jason Kelce at center. Cam Jurgens should be a solid replacement, but merely solid would be a downgrade, and how effective is the Brotherly Shove going to be without him? Jalen Hurts will probably score double-digit rushing TDs regardless, but the Tush Push has had Philly converting about 70 percent its fourth-down attempts each of the last two seasons. In 2021, before they'd perfected the play, the team was 25th in the league on fourth-down conversions at 45.8 percent. Hurts can't do it alone. Barkley, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are a great trio of weapons, and Brown especially could thrive as the CeeDee Lamb equivalent in Moore's scheme, but the Eagles proved last year that having talent on paper wasn't anywhere near enough.

Key Info

GB injuries: RB AJ Dillon (IR, neck), RB MarShawn Lloyd (questionable, hamstring), RB Emanuel Wilson (questionable, hip), WR Romeo Doubs (questionable, hand), TE Tucker Kraft (questionable, back)
PHI injuries: LB Devin White (out, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer 
GB DFS targets: Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave 
PHI DFS targets: none

GB DFS fades: none
PHI DFS fades: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind

The Scoop

Jacobs has a strong Packers debut, racking up 120 combined yards and a TD. Love throws for 320 yards and three scores, hitting Christian Watson, Reed and Musgrave. Barkley's first game an an Eagle is also productive, as he strikes for 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Hurts throws for 240 yards and a TD to Brown (who tops 100 yards) while running for 50 yards and another score, but it's not enough. Packers 31-27