Trevor Lawrence

It's hard to know what to make of Lawrence after the disaster in Jacksonville last season. The first overall pick looked like a massive bust, throwing five more interceptions (17) than TD passes (12). His on-target percentage was 31st, with only fellow rookie Zach Wilson lower. His 6.0 YPA ranked last, below even Wilson. Lawrence at least tried to throw downfield, his 7.9-yard average target depth ranking 15th — not that it went well. On attempts of 20-plus yards, Lawrence was 30th in YPA (8.6), 29th in completion percentage (29.9) and last in on-target percentage (37.3). Of course, all of that awfulness is mitigated in part by the circus that was Urban Meyer. Not only that, but Lawrence lost arguably his top target, DJ Chark, to a season- ending injury Week 4. This year can be treated as a do-over for Lawrence under new coach Doug Pederson, who should at least give the young QB a chance to succeed. Chark is gone to Detroit, though, with Jacksonville instead signing Christian Kirk to a big-money deal. The Jaguars also signed Zay Jones to go with 32-year-old Marvin Jones and disappointing 2020 second-round pick Laviska Shenault, and they added speed at TE with Evan Engram. There are more guys to throw to than last year, but the team still lacks a speed receiver to get downfield. That's not good for any QB, and especially one like Lawrence who struggled so badly a year ago.

The NFL has waited for Lawrence since he led Clemson to the national championship in 2018 as a true freshman. To hear scouts, coaches, GMs, media and the hype train tell it, Lawrence can't miss. The top pick in this year's draft seemingly has few flaws. At 6-6, he has prototypical size for a quarterback, and while he didn't run the 40 at his pro day, he's a dual-threat athlete who is elusive on the move. He has the arm strength, touch and accuracy to make throws at each level and "throws receivers open" with excellent ball placement on short and intermediate passes. Lawrence is noted for being mechanically sound, and his vision, poise under pressure and leadership are near universally praised. About the only criticisms — mild criticisms — are that his accuracy is very good but not elite and his delivery can get long. Will Lawrence live up to the immense hype? From a fantasy perspective, it's easily worth the risk to find out. He'll start from Day 1 in Urban Meyer's new regime in Jacksonville, which all but guarantees 550 attempts. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell will call plays, and while he doesn't necessarily scream innovator, the Jags have plenty of talent around Lawrence in running back James Robinson and wideouts DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones, who played with Bevell in Detroit. Plus, the Jags used their second pick of the first round on Lawrence's Clemson teammate Travis Etienne. Lawrence is similarly mobile as the quarterbacks Meyer's collegiate teams always relied on, which should offer a base of rushing stats. If the hype proves accurate, Lawrence will outperform his late-round ADP, and if he pops, like, say, Justin Herbert (QB9 last season), he could be a top-5 fantasy QB.