Spring Training Job Battles: Let the Competition Begin

Spring training games are about to kick off, which should hopefully bring some clarity to a number of job battles around the league. This article will break down at least one competition worth paying attention to from every team in the league. As most of the players worth taking in shallower leagues have clear starting roles, this piece is geared more toward deeper leagues where nearly everyone with playing time is worth rostering. There should be something here for everybody, however, especially with such a large number of open closer positions around the league.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Rotation

Zac Gallen is locked in atop the Diamondbacks' rotation, and Madison Bumgarner's career resume locks him in as well despite his 2020 struggles. Caleb Smith should also have little to fear. The battle for the team's final two spots is less clear, however. Luke Weaver is probably favored to win one of them, though he's coming off a season in which he posted a 6.58 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.

If Merrill Kelly demonstrates full health, this might not be a battle at all, but it's hard to be fully confident in him after he underwent thoracic outlet surgery in September. Take a quick glance at Matt Harvey's recent numbers if you want to see how that procedure can sometimes affect a pitcher's career. Kelly has far less room to regress than Harvey, as his 4.15 ERA in 37 career starts is fine but forgettable. 

There aren't any convincing options behind him, however. Alex Young had a 5.44 ERA as a swingman last season and has struck out just 19.9 percent of batters in 129.2 innings at the highest level. Taylor Clarke owns a similar 19.6 percent career strikeout rate, and while his 4.36 ERA in a split role last season was decent enough, it came with a 5.20 FIP. Corbin Martin has potential but hasn't pitched in a game since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2019, as he suffered an oblique strain while rehabbing last year.

Closer

The Diamondbacks brought in Joakim Soria and his 223 career saves in early February but declined to name him their closer. He's saved more than two games just once in the last five years, and his 2.82 ERA last year looks to be largely a mirage, as his merely above-average 25.0 percent strikeout rate shouldn't be enough to offset a poor 10.4 percent walk rate and 27.4 percent groundball rate. Stefan Crichton saved five games and is the top incumbent, though he probably wouldn't close for many teams. His 2.42 ERA last season isn't supported by his 3.42 FIP and 4.55 xFIP, and he struck out just 21.1 percent of batters. Kevin Ginkel was thought to be in the mix this time last year but went on to post a 6.75 ERA and 16.5 percent walk rate, so he'll need to prove that was a fluke to get back into the conversation.

Atlanta Braves

Closer

Whether Atlanta chooses to deploy a traditional closer remains to be seen. You could make a case that its well-suited for a modern, matchups-based approach given that it has similarly talented options from both sides of the rubber. Lefty Will Smith has closing experience, saving 34 games for the Giants in 2019, but his ERA backed up from 2.76 to 4.50 last season while his strikeout rate fell from 37.4 percent to 29.0 percent. He also posted a career-low 30.0 percent groundball rate and gave up seven homers in 16 innings and isn't getting any younger at age 31. Righty Chris Martin is three years older but is seemingly just coming into his own. While he has just six career saves, he's looked very much like closer material the last two seasons, striking out 30.1 percent of batters and walking just 2.8 percent en route to a 2.81 ERA. A.J. Minter and Luke Jackson are also around and have closing experience but likely will open the season behind Smith and Martin in the pecking order.

Baltimore Orioles

Catcher

Adley Rutschman is a generational catching prospect and already may be the Orioles' best backstop, but he's played just 37 professional games (and none above Low-A), so it won't be purely service-time manipulation when he spends the first part of the season in the minors. Pedro Severino made 32 starts behind the plate last year compared to 22 for Chance Sisco, but there's little to separate the two. Severino owns a 96 wRC+ the last two years, hitting .249/.321/.409 with 18 homers in 144 games. Sisco's 103 wRC+ in 95 contests is slightly stronger, though it's come in a less fantasy-friendly way, as he's hit .211/.345/.389 with 12 homers over that stretch. Both have graded out as below-average defenders.

Second Base/Third Base

A group of uninspiring options will fill these two spots in some combination. Rio Ruiz's 90 wRC+ last season (the product of a .222/.286/.427 slash line) was actually his best mark since his five-game debut in 2016. He's almost exclusively played third base and doesn't come close to clearing the offensive bar for the hot corner. Yolmer Sanchez can play either position and earned a Gold Glove at the keystone for the White Sox in 2019, but he's a career .245/.300/.360 hitter. Pat Valaika suddenly broke out to hit a very respectable .277/.315/.475 last year (backed up by a .463 xSLG), but how much faith do you really want to put in someone who hit just .214/.256/.400 the four previous years while playing half his games at Coors Field? Jahmai Jones is also in the mix after coming over from the Angels in the Alex Cobb trade, but he's essentially a younger version of the rest of this group at the plate and has played just three games above Double-A.

Outfield

Four players will compete for three spots, assuming Ryan Mountcastle and Trey Mancini spend the majority of their time at first base and designated hitter. Anthony Santander's spot should be fairly safe, as he broke out to hit .261/.315/.575 last season, though that came in just 37 games and followed a .249/.285/.434 line the previous three years. DJ Stewart was the other member of this group to produce an above-average batting line, though it came from a rather lopsided .193/.355/.455 triple slash. He showed power and walked at a very high clip, but his anemic average was well-deserved according to his .194 xBA. Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays get a boost from their ability to play center, but neither looks like anything more than a league-average hitter. Mullins' 97 wRC+ last year edged out Hays' 96 wRC+, and he has a bit more speed, but Hays hit better in previous seasons and is a better defender.

Rotation

There's little reason to lock in anyone other than John Means. Tom Eshelman had the best ERA among the rest of the group last season at 3.89, but his 5.76 FIP suggests that was clearly a mirage, and he's struck out just 12.4 percent of batters in 70.2 career innings at the major-league level. He's only in camp on a minor-league deal. Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer are both 25 years old and come with at least modest prospect pedigree but neither projects as a frontline starter. Akin's 30.2 percent strikeout rate in his 25.2-inning debut makes him somewhat interesting, though his fastball averaged just 91.9 mph and he never struck out that many batters in the minors. Bruce Zimmermann is a 26-year-old with just 45.2 career innings above Double-A, including seven largely unsuccessful ones in the majors last year. Jorge Lopez owns a lifetime 6.03 ERA and hasn't finished below that number since 2018.

Then there are the veteran non-roster invitees, a group that doesn't inspire much more confidence. Felix Hernandez's decline has been well-documented. He hasn't pitched since 2019 after opting out last season and recorded a 5.82 ERA the previous two years. Matt Harvey has fallen perhaps even more precipitously. He owns a 6.09 ERA since returning from thoracic outlet surgery in 2017 and an even worse 7.82 mark the last two years. Wade LeBlanc never reached the same heights as that pair but has been just as bad lately, posting a 6.08 ERA since 2019.

Closer

Hunter Harvey has promising stuff but simply can't stay healthy, averaging 33.4 innings over his eight-year professional career. His 3.00 ERA in 15 innings at the highest level is promising but may be a mirage, as that's a tiny sample and comes with a 4.93 FIP. Cesar Valdez (who could potentially be stretched out as a starter) impressed with a 1.26 ERA last season and earned three saves, but his 22.6 percent strikeout rate was hardly closer material. He's also heading into his age-36 season with just 65 major-league innings under his belt. Tanner Scott was similarly effective in last year's shortened season, posting a 1.31 ERA, though he owned a 5.31 mark heading into 2020. There's maybe something there, though, as his career 30.2 percent strikeout rate and 49.6 percent groundball rate could be enough to offset his 12.9 percent walk rate. Shawn Armstrong has posted sub-2.00 ERAs in two of the last three years but threw no more than 15 innings in either campaign. He had a 5.74 ERA over a full season in 2019.

Boston Red Sox

Second Base/Left Field

Enrique Hernandez joined as a free agent in January and will probably spend most of his time at one of these two spots, though the utility role in which he spent most of his time with the Dodgers probably suits him best. He's produced an above-average batting line just once in the last five seasons and hit just .235/.296/.410 the last two years. Marwin Gonzalez should also spend much of his time at these two spots and typically outperforms Hernandez at the plate, though he hit a poor .211/.286/.320 last season. Franchy Cordero came over in the Andrew Benintendi trade and could take over for him in the outfield, but there's no reason to pencil him into an everyday role just yet. He's shown promise with 12 homers, eight steals and a passable 97 wRC+ in 95 career MLB games, but he's also constantly battling injuries and owns a 34.9 percent strikeout rate. Michael Chavis has spent time at both spots but fits better defensively as a corner infielder. With an unimpressive .241/.304/.424 batting line through his first 137 MLB games, though, a utility role may be his destiny.

Fifth Starter

On the surface, this looks like just a temporary role until Chris Sale returns midseason, but believing that both Garrett Richards and Nathan Eovaldi will stay healthy all season requires inadvisable levels of optimism. Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Matt Andriese will compete for the available position. Pivetta finally wore out his welcome in Philadelphia after years of failing to fulfill his potential, but he remains at least a tiny bit interesting. His career 24.5 percent strikeout rate, 8.6 percent walk rate and 44.1 percent groundball rate really should add up to a league-average starter, not someone who's struggled to a 5.40 ERA in 406.1 innings. Houck debuted last year with three promising starts, posting a 33.3 percent strikeout rate while allowing just a single earned run. He has shaky command, however, and it showed in his 14.3 percent walk rate. Andriese's 4.65 ERA the last two seasons comes with a 3.90 FIP and a 25.7 percent strikeout rate, but he's started just once in that stretch.

Closer

Matt Barnes led the team with nine saves last season and is the favorite to open the year in the role, but the team hasn't officially confirmed him as the closer. He generates a closer's whiffs, striking out more than 30 percent of batters for three consecutive seasons, but he's also walked batters at a 12.7 percent clip in that stretch. Adam Ottavino, who came over in a trade from the rival Yankees, is about as close to a Barnes clone as you can get. He's struck out a similar 33.2 percent the last three years but walked 12.6 percent. A 24-year-old southpaw, Darwinzon Hernandez is an even more exaggerated version of the same archetype. In 38.2 major-league innings, he has an elite 37.4 percent strikeout rate, but he's walked nearly one of every five batters (18.2 percent). He has huge upside if he can learn any semblance of control, but he's nowhere close to that at this point.

Chicago Cubs

Second Base

A pair of options who haven't shown much more than utility upside in their careers figure to battle it out for starts at second base for the Cubs. David Bote owns a technically above-average 101 wRC+ in 711 career plate appearances in the majors, the product of a .240/.338/.415 slash line, and his 24 homers mean he could provide at least modest help in that category should he earn a full-time job. Nico Hoerner, a first-round pick in 2018, may have more upside, but he's hit just .247/.309/.333 with three homers and three steals in 68 big-league games. That could be a product of him being rushed before he's ready, as he's still just 23, but nothing indicates a major leap forward is coming. Ian Happ could theoretically move back in to fill his former position, but he didn't make a single start in the infield last year and opening outfield at-bats for Jake Marisnick isn't something the Cubs will be desperate to do.

Fifth Starter

Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies are locked into rotation spots, and Alec Mills and Jake Arrieta likely are too despite the former's generally mediocre resume and the latter's clear downward trajectory. A mix of unproven or unreliable options follows that group. If Adbert Alzolay makes good on his promise and looks to have everything put together in camp, this may not be a battle, but he's walked 15.0 percent of the batters he's faced in his 33.2 major-league innings, so he has plenty to prove. Trevor Williams is boring and BABIP-dependent, as he's never posted a strikeout rate higher than 19.4 percent. When the hits fall, he posts a 6.18 ERA like he did last year, though he did record an ERA as low as 3.11 in 2018 when balls more reliably found his teammates' gloves. Kohl Stewart owns a career 4.79 ERA in 62.0 innings as a swingman but didn't pitch last season after opting out. Prospects Brailyn Marquez and Tyson Miller probably aren't in the Opening Day mix, as they've thrown a combined 5.2 major-league innings.

Chicago White Sox

Designated Hitter

Andrew Vaughn is being drafted as the clear winner of this job, though that doesn't match the White Sox's official tune. It's possible he's simply being made to earn his spot, but he's only played 55 professional games, none of which have come above High-A, so it's not impossible he opens the year in the minors despite his advanced bat. Gavin Sheets was mentioned as a primary competitor, though he's also yet to make his big-league debut and hasn't played above Double-A. While he's two years older than Vaughn and has advanced to a higher level, he's not nearly in the same tier as a prospect, so he's unlikely to be the long-term answer. Jake Burger was also mentioned as part of the competition by manager Tony La Russa, but he hasn't swung a bat in affiliated ball since 2017, losing two years to Achilles issues and then one to the pandemic. It's possible the team simply uses the spot to rest its regulars for a few weeks while manipulating Vaughn's service time.

Fifth Starter

On talent alone, Michael Kopech should win this job easily. He hasn't pitched in more than two years, however, as he missed 2019 due to Tommy John surgery and then opted out of last season. So, it's no surprise that the White Sox announced Friday that he'll open the season in the bullpen, taking him out of this competition for at least the start of the season and leaving a group of less inspiring options. Carlos Rodon once had a fair amount of promise, but he owns a 5.74 ERA in 42.1 innings the last two seasons while missing most of that time due to his own Tommy John. Reynaldo Lopez is still here, but his former prospect shine should be completely rubbed off by now after he posted a 5.52 ERA the last two campaigns. Jonathan Stiever jumped from High-A to the majors last year but didn't look close to ready, posting a 3:4 K:BB and allowing seven runs in 6.1 innings in a pair of short starts.

Cincinnati Reds

Shortstop

Nothing exemplifies the Reds' complete disinterest in moving to the front of the weak NL Central more than the state of their shortstop position. At 22, Jose Garcia is a promising prospect but doesn't look close to ready, as he hit a miserable .194/.206/.194 in his 24-game debut last season, striking out 38.2 percent of the time while walking just once. Kyle Farmer has posted a wRC+ of 73 or 76 in all four of his big-league seasons, while Rule 5 pick Kyle Holder has yet to play above Double-A and owns a .667 OPS in the minors. Dee Strange-Gordon can still run, so he's perhaps the only one to offer fantasy players anything noteworthy out of this group, but he hit just .200/.268/.213 last year and hasn't posted a wRC+ higher than 77 since 2017. He's also not much of a shortstop, and the idea of him moving up the defensive spectrum in his age-33 season seems far-fetched.

Outfield

Nick Castellanos should start nearly everyday in right, but the rest of the outfield starts appear to be up for grabs. Jesse Winker was a strong contact hitter to start his career but suddenly showed quite a bit of pop last season, homering 12 times in 54 games as his exit velocity jumped three full ticks to 92.1 mph. His strikeout rate jumped nearly 10 points to 25.1 percent as part of the change, however, and he's held back by his sub-par defense. Shogo Akiyama has an entirely different profile, as he slugged just .297 in his stateside debut (well-deserved according to his 0.8 percent barrel rate) but played above-average defense in center and stole seven bases. Nick Senzel was one of the game's top prospects prior to his debut but hasn't shown much through his first 127 career games, hitting .245/.305/.416 while battling injuries and illnesses, though his 14 homers and 16 steals hints at his cross-category potential if his bat improves enough that he deserves an everyday spot. It looks as though the Reds want him to be the primary center fielder, but he won't play every game. Aristides Aquino had one of the most impressive months ever by a rookie during his August 2019 breakout, but he's shown next to nothing since then, hitting .188/.259/.362 in 166 trips to the plate since that month ended.

Fifth Starter

Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle make for a strong top three, and Wade Miley appears favored for the fourth spot despite a shaky 2020 season. The fifth starter job for the Reds shapes up as a battle between a pair of interesting candidates. Michael Lorenzen has mostly pitched out of the pen the last five years but made a pair of starts last season and is pushing for the role this spring. His 3.97 career ERA is solid, but the role change brings workload questions, as does his minor offseason knee procedure. Tejay Antone debuted last season with four starts and nine relief appearances and looked quite good, with his 31.9 percent strikeout rate offsetting an 11.3 percent walk rate and helping him to a 2.80 ERA. It's fair to wonder how that small-sample success would hold up over a full season in the rotation, as he struck out just 17.6 percent of batters in the minors, but a velocity spike (up to 95.7 mph) provides reason to believe. 

Closer

The Reds have yet to clarify their closer position after trading incumbent Raisel Iglesias to the Angels. Amir Garrett may be the favorite, as his 33.0 percent strikeout rate the last two seasons looks like closer material and has been more than enough to overcome his 13.3 percent walk rate, helping him to a 3.03 ERA. He's also a southpaw, though, so the Reds may elect to bring him in against opponents' top lefty bats prior to the ninth inning. Lucas Sims owns a similar 32.5 percent strikeout rate from the right side the last two years and brought his ERA down from 4.60 in 2019 to 2.45 last year, but he showed up to camp with an elbow issue. He doesn't seem overly concerned, but it's tough to draft a reliever with no guaranteed role and injury questions. Sean Doolittle comes with plenty of pedigree, saving 111 career games, but he's now 34 and has fallen off considerably. His 24.3 percent strikeout rate and 4.26 ERA the last two seasons are decidedly not closer-worthy, and his fastball dropped  nearly three ticks to 90.7 mph last season as he battled knee and oblique issues.

Cleveland Indians

Middle Infield

Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez were stuck fighting for playing time with the Mets, and that battle will continue this season on a new team after both were included as part of the return for Francisco Lindor. Rosario was once one of the top prospects in the game but has yet to produce a league-average batting line in any of his four seasons, though he got incredibly close with a 99 wRC+ in 2019. He fell off hard last year, turning in a .252/.272/.371 line and failing to steal a single base. Gimenez stole eight while hitting a respectable .263/.333/.398, but he wasn't much more than a league-average hitter in the minors. Both could fit into the same lineup if one displaces second baseman Cesar Hernandez, who's been exactly a league-average hitter in his eight-year career. He didn't attempt a single steal last season, but his .283 average was his best since 2017.

Center Field/Right Field

New signing Eddie Rosario should have a firm grip on the left field job, but the rest of Cleveland's outfield should feature the same mix of below-average but passable options that we've seen for the last several seasons. Ben Gamel had the best season at the plate from among this group last year, but his 93 wRC+ (the product of a .237/.315/.404 line) hardly turns heads. He also struck out a career-high 30.7 percent of the time. Jordan Luplow wasn't able to recapture his surprisingly strong 2019 form and saw his OPS fall from .923 to .663. He's a lifetime .275/.379/.603 hitter against lefties but has hit just .193/.274/.316 against righties, so he should be limited to the short side of a platoon. Oscar Mercado's collapse was even worse, as he hit a promising .269/.318/.443 as a rookie but fell to an awful .128/.174/.174 last season. 

Things only get less inspiring from there. Bradley Zimmer was interesting at one point but has hit just .192/.287/.282 in 63 games the last three years. Daniel Johnson is a moderately interesting prospect with good speed but was given just 13 plate appearances last season despite having already played more than half a season at Triple-A and despite Cleveland's uninspiring alternatives, so the organization must not think too highly of him. Then there's Billy Hamilton, in camp as a non-roster invitee. He was never confused for a slugger, but he seems to have finally found the point at which his bat is too weak to give him the chance to show off his wheels, as he owns a .548 OPS the last two seasons and had a wRC+ of 3 last year.

Rotation

Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale appear locked in, but three pitchers will fight for the final two rotation spots. Triston McKenzie missed all 2019 with back issues but jumped straight from Double-A to the majors last year and was very impressive in six starts and two relief appearances. He struck out 33.1 percent of batters while walking just 7.1 percent en route to a 3.24 ERA. Cal Quantrill followed an unimpressive debut with the Padres in 2019 with 32 good innings last year, finishing with a 2.25 ERA. He's not much of a strikeout arm, as his 23.0 percent strikeout rate last year was his highest at any level since High-A, but his 5.9 percent walk rate demonstrated good control. Logan Allen, who came over from San Diego the year prior, has some pedigree but hasn't done much in the majors, posting a 24:20 K:BB, a 5.40 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 38.1 innings the last two years.

Closer

Brad Hand is now a National, and Cleveland is treating the battle to be his replacement as a  competition. By talent alone, James Karinchak should be the clear favorite, as he's coming off a year in which he struck out a ludicrous 48.6 percent of batters. His 14.7 percent walk rate and 23.1 percent groundball rate were both very poor, but you can live with those numbers when it's effectively a coin flip whether the batter will turn right back to the dugout with his bat on his shoulder. Emmanuel Clase and his 99-mph heat are in the mix as well. Despite that velocity, he struck out a below-average 22.3 percent of batters in his 23.1 inning debut for the Rangers in 2019, but he still managed a 2.31 ERA. He hasn't pitched in more than a year, however, as he missed all of last year while serving a PED suspension. Nick Wittgren is a quality arm with a 3.36 career ERA, but it's hard to say he's better than Karinchak with a straight face. Cleveland could still use him if they want to deploy Karinchak in high-leverage situations earlier in games, however. Blake Parker could also be a dark horse despite the fact that he's merely a non-roster invitee, as he has 34 career saves and struck out a career-high 36.2 percent last season.

Colorado Rockies

First base

This job should be C.J. Cron's with Daniel Murphy retired and Ryan McMahon moving to third in the absence of Nolan Arenado, but he's merely a non-roster invitee and was held to just 13 games last year due to knee surgery. He's not close to an elite hitter, but his .257/.312/.464 career line still makes him the clear top choice if he can prove his health. Greg Bird is also in camp as a non-roster invitee, but he can't stay healthy and owns an 81 wRC+ the last three years. Josh Fuentes is the top option on the 40-man roster and likely would get the job if Cron and Bird fail to impress in camp, but he's shown little in 54 career games, walking 1.9 percent of the time while striking out at a 30.8 percent clip and posting a wRC+ of 71.

Closer

Daniel Bard was one of the stories of the 2020 season, appearing in the majors for the first time since 2013. He saved six games and recorded a 3.65 ERA, though his 25.5 percent strikeout rate is below the typical standards for a ninth-inning option. Scott Oberg saved five games in 2019 and has a 2.35 ERA his last two seasons, but he missed all of last year with injuries and eventually underwent thoracic outlet surgery. He's been throwing in camp, but the surgery is one of the riskiest a pitcher can undergo, so there's no guarantee he returns to high-leverage form. Mychal Givens is another option, as he's saved 21 career games and owns a 3.41 ERA over his six-season career.

Detroit Tigers

Corner infield

Jeimer Candelario should fill one of these spots after breaking out last season to hit .297/.369/.503, but it's not yet clear who will be at the opposite corner of the diamond. Renato Nunez has the best track record of the available options, having hit .256/.324/.492 with 12 homers last season, but he's merely in camp as a non-roster invitee after he was somewhat surprisingly cut by Baltimore. Isaac Paredes might be the third baseman of the future, but he did very little to prove he's the first baseman of the present, hitting .220/.278/.290 with one homer in 34 games as a rookie last year. Harold Castro hit .347, but that came in just 54 plate appearances and was clearly inflated by a .447 BABIP. Niko Goodrum has been pushed back into a utility role by the emergence of Willi Castro at shortstop and is coming off a year in which he hit .184/.263/.335 and struck out 38.5 percent of the time.

Outfield

Robbie Grossman should fill one spot in most games after signing a two-year deal. His eight homers and eight steals last season hint at cross-category value, though he's never had more than 11 homers or nine steals in a season and has hit below .250 in three of the last four years. JaCoby Jones slugged .515 out of nowhere last season in 30 games before fracturing his wrist, but it came with a 31.5 percent strikeout rate and wasn't backed up by his .425 xSLG. Victor Reyes should fight with him for starts in center. He's hit .293 with 17 steals in 126 games the last two years but has homered just seven times. Nomar Mazara is still just 25, but he's on his third team in three years and has little more than unfulfilled potential left at this point. He's managed just a 90 wRC+ in five seasons and hit just .228/.295/.294 last year. Daz Cameron could factor into the picture eventually, but his .193/.220/.263 line in his 17-game debut suggests he's not yet ready for regular at-bats.

Rotation

Matthew Boyd and Spencer Turnbull should be rotation locks, but the rest of the picture is very much up in the air. Highly touted prospects Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal both debuted last year but both struggled, with Mize posting a 6.99 ERA in seven starts and Skubal struggling to a 5.63 ERA in seven starts and one relief appearance. Skubal flashed promise with a 27.6 percent strikeout rate but also produced a very low 27.7 percent groundball rate and allowed 2.5 HR/9.
Also in the mix is a trio of more experienced returning options. Tyler Alexander owns a 4.50 ERA in 90 career innings as a swingman but started just twice last season. Michael Fulmer opened his career with a pair of strong seasons but wasn't anything close to good last year in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, finishing with an 8.78 ERA and 2.06 WHIP in 10 starts. Daniel Norris' 3.25 ERA was quite strong, aided by a career-high 55.7 percent groundball rate, though all but one of his appearances came out of the pen.

Joining the large group of incumbents are three veterans from outside the organization. The Tigers likely expect Jose Urena to win a rotation spot after giving him a big-league deal, but he's posted ERAs north of 5.00 for consecutive seasons and had a worrisome 15:13 K:BB in five starts last year. Julio Teheran is seemingly behind him in the pecking order, as he's in camp on a minor-league deal after struggling to an awful 10.05 ERA last year. He kept his ERA to less than 4.00 in five of the previous seven seasons, however, so a bounce-back campaign as a passable fifth starter is definitely possible. Derek Holland is also around as a non-roster invitee but is a longer shot to make the team, as he's finished with an ERA above 6.00 in three of the last four campaigns.

Closer

Some closer situations are undecided due to the team having multiple options. This is not one of those. Joe Jimenez deservedly lost his job after struggling to a 7.15 ERA and seeing his strikeout rate plummet from 31.9 percent to 21.8 percent. He could reclaim it given the lack of compelling alternatives, but he's never reached double-digit saves in a season or posted an ERA lower than 4.31, so that doesn't seem particularly likely. Bryan Garcia saved four games last season, but it's hard to see him repeating his 1.66 ERA when it came with a 12.9 percent strikeout rate and 10.8 percent walk rate. Gregory Soto has upper-90s heat and struck out a strong 29.6 percent of batters last year, but he also walked 13.3 percent. He could be used to matchup against lefties earlier in games. Veteran Jose Cisnero could enter the picture as well, as he's coming off a season in which he finished with a career-high 27.6 percent strikeout rate and a career-low 3.03 ERA.

Houston Astros

Top Bench Player

Yes, this isn't a real position, but the Astros have remarkable stability throughout their roster, with seemingly locked-in starters at all nine spots to go with a stable rotation and bullpen hierarchy. One of those starters is Yordan Alvarez, however, a player who appeared in just two games last year before being shut down with knee problems and who still isn't fully cleared for workouts as of this writing. Betting on him holding up all year seems unwise, and if it's not him who goes down, it'll inevitably be someone else, opening up regular at-bats for the next man up.

Aledmys Diaz looks like the top option for designated hitter duty should Alvarez not be ready for Opening Day, as he owns a respectable .273/.327/.460 career line, though he missed most of last season with a groin injury. Abraham Toro has shown little in 58 career games, hitting just .182/.269/.327, but he was at least a fairly interesting prospect and is still just 24. The team could also move Michael Brantley to DH and start Steven Souza Jr. in left field, though he's merely a non-roster invitee and hasn't produced an above-average batting line since 2017.

Kansas City Royals

Center Field

Whit Merrifield or Andrew Benintendi could slide to center when the Royals want to get an extra corner bat in the lineup, but the main competition for starts at the position should be between Edward Olivares and Michael Taylor. Olivares came over from San Diego in the Trevor Rosenthal trade, but he didn't do much in his 31-game debut on either side of the move, hitting just .240/.267/.375 with zero steals. He doesn't project to have a big bat, but he stole 35 bases at the Double-A level in 2019, giving him some fantasy upside if he wins the job. Taylor signed as a free agent after spending parts of seven years with the Nationals. He fits best as a bench outfielder, as he recorded a wRC+ above 80 just once in those seven seasons.

Fifth Starter

Kris Bubic and Jakob Junis are the primary contestants to round out the Royals' rotation. Bubic jumped straight from High-A to the majors last season and made 10 starts. He held his own but hardly dominated, finishing with a 4.32 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Junis was a rotation staple in previous seasons but made just six starts and two relief appearances last year. He didn't look good, posting a 6.39 ERA and 1.62 WHIP while striking out just 16.7 percent of  batters. Ervin Santana is also around on a minor-league deal but is now 38 and hasn't posted an ERA less than 8.00 since 2017. Prospects Carlos Hernandez and Ronald Bolanos could factor into the mix eventually but have yet to show much at the big-league level.

Closer

Veteran righty Greg Holland turned back the clock last season with six saves and a 1.91 ERA. He's unlikely to repeat a number quite that strong, though his 27.7 percent strikeout rate, 6.3 percent walk rate and 51.4 percent groundball rate were all strong numbers. His track record may give him the inside shot at the job, though the Royals have a pair of alternatives who have more electric stuff than he has at this point in his career. Josh Staumont's fastball averaged 98.1 mph last season as he struck out 33.0 percent of batters en route to a 2.45 ERA, though he did also issue free passes at a 14.3 percent clip. Scott Barlow nearly matched him with a 31.2 percent strikeout rate and paired it with a 7.2 percent walk rate, suggesting it shouldn't be too tough for him to improve on his 4.20 ERA this season.

Los Angeles Angels

Catcher

Kurt Suzuki managed an above-average batting line just once in his first 10 seasons, but he's now done that in each of the last four, showing no signs of slowing as he heads into his age-37 season, a remarkable feat for a catcher. Max Stassi thrived in semi-regular playing time last season after seven years as a depth option, hitting .278/.352/.533 with seven homers in 105 plate appearances. He underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left hip in October and is starting camp slowly, though he's expected to be ready for Opening Day.

Los Angeles Dodgers

First Base/Second Base/Left Field

The Dodgers love their positional versatility, so framing any of their lineup decisions as "battles" may be inaccurate. Still, five talented players will seemingly be competing for these three spots on a daily basis. Max Muncy should find himself in the lineup at first or second (or potentially third, spelling Justin Turner) on a near-daily basis even after struggling to a .192/.331/.389 line last season, as he can seemingly blame a .203 BABIP for most of his troubles. Chris Taylor should also start regularly at a wide variety of positions, as he's coming off a season in which he posted a career-high 132 wRC+. In left field, AJ Pollock should fight with Taylor for starts. The shortened season and universal designated hitter helped him stay healthy all year for the first time since 2015, and he rewarded the Dodgers with an excellent .276/.314/.566 line.

Then comes a pair of less established options. Gavin Lux will also be pushing for time at second base, though his case is based almost entirely on his past prospect hype, as he's hit just .210/.278/.377 through his first 42 big-league games. Edwin Rios is limited to the infield corners, but he'll fight for starts at first and could also give Justin Turner a rest at the hot corner. His pedigree perhaps places him at the back of this group, but his .260/.338/.634 line in 139 big-league plate appearances means the Dodgers are almost forced to give him a fair number of chances.

Fifth Starter

Three young arms will battle it out start break camp in the rotation, though all three likely will get chances to start at some point given how the Dodgers typically manage their staff. Julio Urias dominated in the postseason, allowing just three earned runs in 23 innings while striking out 29 and walking four. He looks like the favorite after posting a 3.27 ERA in the regular season last year, though it's worth noting that his 20.1 percent strikeout rate and 32.9 percent groundball rate were both fairly poor, leading to a 5.06 xFIP and 4.88 SIERA. Dustin May had an even stronger 2.57 regular-season ERA, aided by a 54.7 percent groundball rate, though his 19.6 percent strikeout rate was mediocre. Tony Gonsolin beat them both with a 2.31 ERA, and his came with the best strikeout and walk rate, finishing at 26.1 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively.

Miami Marlins

First Base

Garrett Cooper and Jesus Aguilar are both 30, and both are coming off surprisingly strong seasons that followed largely mediocre careers. Cooper owned a respectable but unexciting 108 wRC+ heading into last season, but he finished 2020 with a .283/.353/.500 line in 34 games. Aguilar had a negligibly better 111 wRC+ prior to last year but went on to hit .277/.352/.457 in 51 games. Both bat right-handed, so there's no real platoon possibility, though Cooper has also played some outfield in his career, so there's a path to starting both in the same lineup occasionally.

Closer

The Marlins lack a pitcher with meaningful closer experience at the back of their bullpen, but they have a small handful of arms who wouldn't look wildly out of place pitching in the ninth inning. Anthony Bass' 15 career saves look like a lot next to his teammates' totals, and he's posted an ERA no higher than 3.56 in the last three years, but he relies on groundballs to keep runs off the board and has never struck out more than 22.8 percent of batters in a season, so he doesn't fit the traditional profile of a closer. Yimi Garcia allowed just a single run in 15 innings last season and had a very closer-like 31.7 percent strikeout rate, though his 3.66 ERA and 25.8 percent strikeout rate through 2019 were both nothing special. Richard Bleier very much looks the part of a closer if all you look at is his ERA, which has come in at 2.16 or less in four of his five big-league seasons. His fastball has never averaged 90 mph, however, and his career strikeout rate comes in at just 12.0 percent.

Milwaukee Brewers

Catcher

Plenty of questions surround each of the Brewers' top catching candidates. Omar Narvaez joined the team last season with a reputation as a poor defender but a strong offensive backstop. That wound up getting flipped on its head, as he showed defensive improvements but hit a miserable .176/.294/.269. Manny Pina probably fits best as a backup, though he did produce a career-high 104 wRC+ in a tiny sample of 15 games last year. His season was cut short by a torn meniscus in his right knee that eventually required surgery. Jacob Nottingham is also coming back from surgery (on his left thumb in his case) and also likely fits best as a backup, though he owns a respectable 97 wRC+ through 85 career plate appearances at the highest level. His 35.3 percent strikeout rate suggests that may not be sustainable, however.

Third Base

The Brewers reportedly made a strong push to sign Justin Turner, an attempt that's easy to understand when looking at their depth chart at the hot corner. The team would probably love Luis Urias to stake his claim for the position (or move ahead of Orlando Arcia at shortstop), but he's hit just .226/.315/.320 in 124 games. He's still just 23 and had plenty of prospect hype a few years ago, but the gap between what he's been and what he was supposed to be is huge. Travis Shaw is back in town on a minor-league deal and had some good seasons in Milwaukee in 2017 and 2018, but he's hit .191/.291/.328 the last two years. Daniel Robertson, Mark Mathias and Tim Lopes are on the 40-man roster and can all play the position, but none looks like anything more than a utility man. Robertson's 97 career wRC+ is the best of the unimpressive bunch. Jace Peterson resides in that same space but is only in camp as a non-roster invitee.

Minnesota Twins

Catcher

Mitch Garver's last two seasons could hardly have been more divergent, making it rather difficult to predict how much playing time he'll deserve this season. He smashed 31 homers in just 93 games in 2019, hitting .273/.365/.630, yet he finished 2020 with a .167/.247/.264 line in 23 games while missing much of the season with an intercostal strain. Ryan Jeffers, who comes with a fair amount of prospect pedigree, established himself in Garver's absence. His .273/.355/.436 line in his 26-game debut was promising, though his 30.6 percent strikeout rate casts some doubt on the repeatability of those numbers. The pair might wind up splitting catching duties roughly down the middle, making this not a true battle.

Rotation

Randy Dobnak looks like a fine fifth starter, as his 6.5 percent walk rate and 62.1 percent groundball rate made the sinkerballer's 4.05 ERA believable despite a very low 13.5 percent strikeout rate. He'll face competition for that role after the Twins brought in veteran Matt Shoemaker, who owns a 3.14 ERA the last two years. His 4.95 FIP casts plenty of doubt on that number, however, though the biggest problem with him is injuries. He's averaged just eight starts  the last four seasons, so even if Dobnak opens the year in the pen, he may not be stuck there for long.

Closer

The Twins haven't always felt the need for a true closer in recent years, so this one may not be a true battle as well. Taylor Rogers has saved 39 games the last two years, though his ERA backed up from 2.61 to 4.05 last year as his strikeout rate fell from 32.4 percent to 26.4 percent. He's also a lefty, so he may not get too many chances in the ninth if the team adopts a committee approach. Alex Colome is a "proven closer" with 138 career saves and posted a 0.81 ERA last season, though his underlying numbers don't match either of those facts. His 22.0 percent career strikeout rate isn't closer material and his 17.8 percent last season would fit best in long relief, while his 44.6 percent career groundball rate isn't at that elite level that helps pitchers succeed without whiffs. It's hard to say the profile hasn't worked for him so far, however. Tyler Duffey's statline looks more like a closer than either Rogers' or Colome's, as his 1.88 ERA last year was backed up by a 33.7 percent strikeout rate, 6.5 percent walk rate and 55.6 percent groundball rate, yet he's managed just one career save.

New York Mets

Fifth Starter

This battle is for merely a temporary spot as a placeholder until Noah Syndergaard returns from Tommy John surgery over summer, though it's, of course, quite possible someone else is injured by then. David Peterson may have the inside track after posting a 3.44 ERA in his 49.2-inning debut last season, though that came with a thoroughly mediocre set of peripherals. Both his 19.5 percent strikeout rate and 11.7 percent walk rate were considerably worse than league average, while his 44.4 percent groundball rate didn't stand out. Joey Lucchesi was a solid backend starter in his first two years with the Padres, producing a 4.14 ERA, though he was trusted to throw just 5.2 unsuccessful innings last season, making him somewhat hard to rely on. Sean Reid-Foley owns a passable 4.40 career ERA in 71.2 innings as a swingman, but his 14.5 percent walk rate is far too high. Jordan Yamamoto was similarly decent in his 15-start debut for the Marlins in 2019 but followed that up by allowing 23 earned runs in 11.1 innings last season.

Closer

It's hard to look any more like a closer than Edwin Diaz did last year, when he posted a 45.5 percent strikeout rate and a 1.75 ERA. His 2019 struggles meant he lost his manager's trust after allowing two runs in his first three 2020 outings, however, and he lost the role for much of the season. The Mets haven't named a closer, however, and might elect not to do so, either through a continued lack of faith in Diaz or a desire to use a more modern, leverage-based approach. Seth Lugo would ordinarily be the top alternative option, but he looks set to miss the start of the season after undergoing an elbow procedure. Trevor May has never saved more than three games in a season but has posted closer-worthy numbers in the past, including a 39.6 percent strikeout rate last season. Dellin Betances and Jeurys Familia each have closing experience but are coming off shaky seasons, with Betances posting an 11:12 K:BB and Familia's coming in at 23:19. 

New York Yankees

Fifth Starter

The Yankees have at least a temporary spot available in their rotation, with Luis Severino set to return from Tommy John surgery midseason. At 21, Deivi Garcia has plenty of upside and held his own in six starts as rookie last year, but his 4.98 ERA and 22.6 percent strikeout rate aren't nearly strong enough to make him a lock for the job. Domingo German backed up his 4.03 ERA with a 25.8 percent strikeout rate and 6.6 percent walk rate in 2019 but missed all last year while serving a domestic violence suspension. Unless he blows the competition away, the Yankees may not want the PR hit that would come with starting someone with that on their record every five days.

The top competitors are joined by a pair of veterans on minor-league deals as well as a pair of prospects. Jhoulys Chacin has some strong seasons on his resume but has a 6.06 ERA the last two seasons. Asher Wojciechowski struggled to a 6.81 ERA for the Orioles last season, raising his career mark to 5.95. On the younger side, Michael King could be a fifth starter one day but didn't show much in 26.2 innings last season, posting a 7.76 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Clarke Schmidt has higher upside but won't be ready for Opening Day as he's battling an elbow issue.

Oakland Athletics

Second Base

The Athletics love their platoons, so this one may not end up being a true battle. Tony Kemp made more than half the starts at the position last year and should get most of the starts against righties. He walked more than he struck out last year but showed almost no power, grabbing just five extra-base hits and slugging just .301. He owns a career wRC+ of just 73 against lefties, so he's likely to require a platoon partner. Chad Pinder could fill that role, though his .239/.291/.413 line the last two seasons isn't very exciting. Switch-hitting veteran Jed Lowrie posted a wRC+ of 120 or hgher in his last two full seasons, but the most recent of those came back in 2018. He's battled a long list of injuries in the last two years, coming to the plate just eight times. Expecting those to suddenly dissipate in his age-37 season seems unwise.

Philadelphia Phillies

Center Field

The Phillies elected to run things back this season, which means running back their uninspiring group of center field options. Adam Haseley, the eighth-overall pick in the 2017 draft, is still just 24 and could grow into something more, but he's looked like a fourth outfielder through his first 107 big-league games. He plays decent defense, but his .269/.330/.382 slash line isn't impressive, and his five homers and four steals make him a fairly uninteresting fantasy option. Scott Kingery should see time in center as well as multiple other positions, though he'll have to bounce back from a terrible 2020 campaign in which he hit just .159/.228/.283. Roman Quinn has stolen 35 bases in 150 career big-league games but has just eight homers and a .235/.306/.364 slash line. He's also graded out as a sub-par defender in center despite his speed. The 2016 first-round pick might eventually be the answer, but he didn't show much in his eight-game debut last year and hasn't set the minors on fire, either. Odubel Herrera is in camp as well, but he posted a 64 wRC+ in 39 games in 2019 before missing the rest of the season while serving a suspension for domestic violence. The Phillies didn't even include him in their player pool last year, so he'll presumably have to really stand out for the team to be willing to invite him back onto the active roster.

Rotation

Two spots appear to be open at the back of the Phillies' rotation behind Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Zach Eflin. Spencer Howard comes with plenty of prospect hype after striking out 32.8 percent of the batters he faced in his minor-league career but didn't back that up in his six-start debut last year, striking out just 20.4 percent en route to a 5.92 ERA. He'd only pitched in six games at the Double-A level and none at Triple-A prior to last season, so the Phillies may decide he needs more time in the minors. Vince Velasquez is the other returning candidate, but he's now had six seasons of failing to look like anything more than a swingman. He did post a career-high 29.9 percent strikeout rate last season, but that came with a career-high 5.56 ERA.

The returning candidates are joined by a trio of veterans. Matt Moore signed a $3 million deal after pitching in Japan last season. His 2.65 ERA and 27.8 percent strikeout rate were both strong, but they came in just 13 starts against lower-level competition, which hardly wipes out his 5.13 ERA and 19.4 percent strikeout rate over his previous five big-league campaigns. Chase Anderson owned a 3.94 career ERA through the end of the 2019 season, but he'll have to prove that his 7.22 mark last season was just a fluke. It did come with a career-high 24.7 percent strikeout rate, but he developed serious homer problems, allowing 11 in 33.2 innings. Ivan Nova is likely behind that pair, as he's merely a non-roster invitee. He's been a reliable back-end option for most of his career but struggled to an 8.53 ERA and a 9:9 K:BB in four starts last year.

Closer

Hector Neris wasn't the biggest problem in the Phillies' historically awful bullpen last year, but he wasn't good, posting a 4.57 ERA while striking out a merely above-average 26.2 percent of  batters, his lowest mark since 2015. He's saved 72 games for the Phillies in his career but has seldom had a firm grip on the job. New signee Archie Bradley seemingly has the best chance to unseat him. His 24.7 percent strikeout rate is low for a closer, but he's saved 28 games in his career and owns a 2.95 ERA since converting to relief in 2017. Jose Alvarado has 15 career saves and has a classic closer's repertoire featuring an upper-90s fastball and a slider than can sit in the 90s as well, but he'll have to prove he's not the guy he was in his last two seasons. He owns a 5.08 ERA and a 17.3 percent walk rate over that stretch while battling multiple injuries. Brandon Kintzler is only in camp on a minor-league deal and has a low 16.9 percent career strikeout rate, but he's still found his way to 61 saves and posted a 2.22 ERA last year.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Shortstop

Kevin Newman hit .308 with 12 homers and 16 steals in his first full season in 2019, making him an interesting late-round middle-infield option, but he followed that with a .224/.281/.276 line last season, homering just once and failing to steal a single base. Erik Gonzalez made the majority of the starts at shortstop and also played some second base, but he looks overmatched even as a utility man. In 624 career big-league plate appearances, he's hit just .250/.283/.362. Cole Tucker was considered a good defensive shortstop as a prospect, but all of his starts last year came in the outfielder. He's back in the infield mix this season, though his .215/.260/.324 career slash line in 93 games at the high level isn't good enough for even a defensive whiz.

Left Field/Center Field

Gregory Polanco is reportedly locked into right field despite a pair of very poor seasons, but the rest of the outfield picture in Pittsburgh is unclear. Bryan Reynolds will also have a starting role despite hitting .189/.275/.357 last year as the Pirates hope he can play himself back into his rookie form, though whether that comes in center or left depends on who gets the other starting spot. Brian Goodwin has the best track record among the available options, as he has a career 101 wRC+ and can handle center, but he's only in camp as a non-roster invitee. Phillip Evans also has an above-average batting line (109 wRC+), but it's taken him a .377 BABIP to get there and has come in just 106 plate appearances. Anthony Alford has yet to turn his athleticism into on-field production, striking out in 35.2 percent of his 88 career plate  appearances at the MLB level while hitting just .169/.216/.313. Jared Oliva is at least a moderately interesting prospect but may not be big-league ready, as he skipped Triple-A last year to play in six big-league games but didn't do much of note. Cole Tucker could also factor into the mix here if he doesn't earn starts at shortstop.

San Diego Padres

Second Base/Left Field

The Padres are suddenly overflowing with talent and seem to be building in the same sort of flexibility that the rival Dodgers have used to establish their dynasty. These two spots appear to be the most up for grabs and could feature a rotation cast of players who could earn everyday roles for most teams in the league. Tommy Pham only factors in at left field but could see the majority of starts as long as he stays healthy, something that can't be counted on as he battled multiple injuries last season while struggling to a .211/.312/.312 slash line. He's undergone three surgeries since August, addressing a broken hamate bone in his left hand, a stab wound in his lower back and a cartilage tear in his left wrist. Age-related regression is also a risk, as he'll be 33 on Opening Day.

Joining Pham are three players who could feature at both spots. Jake Cronenworth didn't play any outfield last year, but the Padres will be looking for ways to keep his bat in the lineup after he hit a surprisingly effective .285/.354/.477 in his rookie campaign. Ha-seong Kim played primarily shortstop and third base in his seven-year KBO, but he's likely to feature at these two spots with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado blocking his two preferred positions. He did a bit of everything in Korea, hitting .306 with 30 homers and 23 steals in 2020, and while he likely won't excel in any area in the majors he should still be a solid all-around contributor. Jurickson Profar had a sputtering start to his career but has settled in as a serviceable utility man the last three years, hitting .243/.323/.434 while starting everywhere but catcher.

Closer

The Padres may not appoint a dedicated closer, but they have a number of capable options should they choose to go that route. Mark Melancon is sixth among active closers with 205 career steals despite never possessing the heat nor the whiffs traditionally associated with the role. He added 11 to that total while posting a 2.78 ERA, though there's reason to worry that his 14.7 percent strikeout rate was close to as low as it can be for an effective late-inning arm. Drew Pomeranz excelled in his first season as a full-time reliever last year, saving four games while posting a 1.45 ERA and a 39.7 percent strikeout rate as he limited his repertoire to just his fastball and curve. His former starting experience could lead the Padres to deploy him in a more flexible role, however. Emilio Pagan had a disappointing 4.50 ERA last season, but he saved 20 games for the Rays the year prior while backing up his 2.31 ERA with a 36.0 percent strikeout rate and 4.9 percent walk rate. Keone Kela also has closing experience, saving 24 games in 2018 as a Ranger, but he needs to prove his health, as shoulder and forearm issues have limited him to just 31.2 innings in the last two seasons.

San Francisco Giants

Left Field

Alex Dickerson could hardly have staked a stronger claim to a job last year, hitting .298/.371/.567, though he'll likely continue to be protected from facing lefties. He's also spent most of his recent seasons battling injuries, so he's far from a lock to keep the role all year. Austin Slater could be his platoon partner but hit well enough to demand a larger role, posting a .282/.408/.506 slash line while adding five homers and eight steals in 31 games. Darin Ruf was similarly effective in his return from Korea, hitting .276/.370/.517 with five homers in 40 contests. He could at minimum steal starts against lefties at both left field and first base.

Rotation

Three veterans without much recent success and one young pitcher who has yet to impress look set to battle for the Giants' final three rotation spots. Anthony DeSclafani had a respectable 4.13 ERA entering last season but went on to produce a 7.22 ERA in 33.2 innings, striking out a career-low 15.8 percent of batters while walking a career-high 10.1 percent. Alex Wood owned a 3.29 ERA through his first six big-league seasons but has spent much of the last two years battling injuries. He's struggled to a 5.96 ERA in 48.1 innings over that stretch when healthy. Aaron Sanchez broke into the league with plenty of promise, posting a 2.86 ERA his first three seasons, but he gradually declined over several years, culminating in a 5.89 ERA in 2019. The shoulder injury he suffered in August of that year wound up keeping him out of action all last season, but he impressed the Giants enough in a workout to earn a $4 million deal. Logan Webb is just 24 and projected as a passable back-end starter, but he owns a 5.36 ERA in 94 major-league innings. His 4.15 FIP suggests he's been much better than that, however.

Closer

Four Giants earned multiple saves last season, and progressive-minded manager Gabe Kapler is unlikely to suddenly become a traditionalist this year. Still, figuring out which pitchers are at the top of the ninth-inning hierarchy will be useful for fantasy managers. Jake McGee bounced back from a handful of shaky seasons with some excellent numbers for the Dodgers last year, posting a 2.66 ERA and a 33:3 K:BB in 20.1 frames. He's left-handed, though, which means he may not see the majority of the ninth-inning opportunities if the Giants play the matchups. Tyler Rogers is the top returning righty and saved three games last year, though his 4.50 ERA and 22.0 percent strikeout rate were hardly closer material. Reyes Moronta's upper-90s heat and classic fastball-slider profile make him look the part of a closer, as does his career 29.8 percent strikeout rate and 2.66 ERA. He missed all last year while recovering from shoulder surgery, though, so he'll have to prove his health before earning high-leverage opportunities. Aaron Sanchez could also potentially figure into this mix if the Giants don't want to start him immediately upon returning from a lost season of his own.

Seattle Mariners

Second Base

This looks like a straightforward two-man battle between Dylan Moore and Shed Long. Long was more hyped as a prospect but hasn't put things together through 76 big-league games, hitting .223/.294/.383. He actually had a strong 111 wRC+ as a rookie, however, before dragging his numbers down while battling a shin injury throughout his sophomore season. Moore looked to be developing into nothing more than an end-of-the-bench utility man, as he didn't even debut until his age-27 season, but he had a surprisingly effective 38 games last season, homering eight times and stealing 12 bases while hitting .255/.358/.496. While that's a small-sample line that came almost out of nowhere, Statcast largely backs it up, giving him a .251 xBA and .464 xSLG. Ty France could also spend some time here when the Mariners want to rest someone else's legs as the designated hitter.

Sixth Starter

The Mariners are one of a small handful of teams expected to deploy a six-man rotation this season. Marco Gonzales, James Paxton, Yusei Kikuchi and Justus Sheffield appear to be locked into the first four spots, and Chris Flexen looks set to occupy the fifth spot after spending 2020 dominating KBO hitters and returning to sign a two-year deal. 

Three players will compete for the sixth and final spot. Nick Margevicius looked effective enough in seven starts and three relief appearances last season, finishing with a 4.57 ERA and a 21.2 percent strikeout rate. Justin Dunn slightly outdid him with a 4.34 ERA in 10 starts, but he walked far too many batters (15.7 percent) while striking out just 19.2 percent. Logan Gilbert, the 14th overall pick in the 2018 draft, has shown his potential with his 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 31.7 percent strikeout rate in the minors, though he's yet to pitch above Double-A. General manager Jerry Dipoto suggested he would get a legitimate chance to crack the big-league roster, but Gilbert was one of the prospects whose service time then-president Kevin Mather openly admitted the Mariners planned to manipulate in his now-infamous speech to the Bellevue Breakfast Rotary Club in early February.

St. Louis Cardinals

Fifth Starter

Exactly what role Carlos Martinez will fill in a given season is never clear. He was exclusively a reliever in 2019 but moved back to the rotation in 2020 without much success, posting a 9.90 ERA in 2.10 WHIP in five starts while missing time due to coronavirus and an oblique strain. He recorded a 3.22 ERA over the previous five seasons, though, so the Cardinals would clearly love for him to show that level of performance this spring and win the job. Daniel Ponce de Leon recorded an excellent 31.5 percent strikeout rate last year, but his 14.0 percent walk rate and 28.0 percent groundball rate were both very poor, leading to a 4.96 ERA. Johan Oviedo is in the mix but is probably the underdog, as he didn't show much in his five-start debut last season, posting a 14.3 percent strikeout rate and a 5.47 ERA. Alex Reyes' constant injury problems probably mean his future is in the bullpen, but his 3.20 ERA last season may inspire the Cardinals to try him in the rotation again.

Closer

Martinez and Reyes could both factor into this battle should they fail to win a rotation spot, though they're just two of a large group of pitchers who could pitch in the ninth. The Cardinals probably want Jordan Hicks to stake a firm claim to the job, but he'll be eased along slowly and will have to prove his health after missing more than a year and a half to Tommy John surgery and an opt out. While his arsenal couldn't be any more prototypical for a closer, as his fastball averages triple digits, that's somehow only translated to a 22.5 percent strikeout rate. It's his excellent 62.3 percent groundball rate which has helped him keep runs off the board.

If Hicks isn't ready to claim the job right away, Giovanny Gallegos wouldn't look at all out of place in the role. He doesn't have Hicks' heat, but his 33.9 percent strikeout rate the last two seasons very much belongs in the ninth inning. Paired with a 6.0 percent walk rate, it's helped him to a 2.53 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over that stretch. Andrew Miller could get opportunities against lefties if the team uses a committee approach. His fastball dropped to just 90.3 mph last year, but he still struck out 29.1 percent of batters as he posted a 2.77 ERA and saved four games. Genesis Cabrera and Ryan Helsley both saved games last year and are hanging around the fringe of this competition, but neither has the resume to compete with the rest of the group.

Tampa Bay Rays

Catcher

Mike Zunino is what he is at this point: a walking strikeout who has enough pop and a good enough glove to continue earning regular at-bats. He has to be nearing the batting-average floor for a regular, though, if he hasn't crashed all the way through it, as he's hit .165 and .147 in the last two seasons. He also graded as a sub-par pitch framer according to FanGraphs for the first time last season. Francisco Mejia came over in the Blake Snell trade in December, and the Rays would love for him to make good on his prospect promise and unseat Zunino. He hasn't come close to doing that in parts of four big-league seasons, however, as his .225/.282/.386 slash line isn't close to good enough for someone who was supposed to be a bat-first catcher. Kevan Smith actually has the best recent numbers of anyone in this group, hitting .270/.336/.392 the last three years, but he's on a minor-league contract and likely to serve as organizational depth.

Corner Infield

The Rays love to use a rotating cast at the corner spots, so the players in this group probably aren't contending for much more than 60 percent of a starting job. Ji-Man Choi briefly experimented with switch-hitting last season, but the ill-fated experiment may have messed up his swing, as his 103 wRC+ was his lowest since his debut back in 2016. He's the only member of this group who won't factor into the third-base side of the equation. Yandy Diaz can play both corner spots and is coming off a season in which he walked more than he struck out and hit .307, but he lost all of his previous power gains, homering just twice in 34 games while slugging .386. Joey Wendle (who could also start at both middle-infield spots) bounced back from his 2019 struggles to hit .286/.342/.435, helping fantasy teams with eight steals in 50 games. Yoshi Tsutsugo failed to clear the Mendoza line in his stateside debut, but his good eye and power helped him to a .197/.314/.395 line, good for a passable 98 wRC+. He could post much better numbers this season if his .230 BABIP improves. Lastly, Mike Brosseau's series-clinching homer off Aroldis Chapman capped off a very impressive season for the utility man, though his .412 BABIP deserves a lot of the credit for his .302/.378/.558 slash line.

Rotation

The Rays have eschewed outdated notions like pitcher roles, and their rotation picture heading into this season is as confusing as ever. Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough should start, but what happens after that is very much up in the air. The team brought in three veterans in Rich Hill, Chris Archer and Michael Wacha, and it's possible they all open the year in the rotation, leaving the youngsters fighting for bullpen roles, though all three have major questions. Hill turns 41 in March, so his well-documented durability problems won't go away any time soon. He also saw his strikeout rate plummet by nearly 10 points to 19.9 percent last year, though it didn't show up in his 3.03 ERA. Archer is back in the city where he first made his name, but his ERA slipped to 5.19 in 2019 and he missed all last year while recovering from thoracic outlet surgery. Wacha has persistent injury problems of his own and has failed to deliver on his early career promise, posting a 5.15 ERA the last two seasons.

Alongside that trio are a number of younger options. Luis Patino, the prize of the Blake Snell trade, is the most exciting, but he may not quite be ready. He made just two Double-A starts prior to last season before jumping to the majors at age 20, so it's no surprise he struggled to a 5.19 ERA and a 16.5 percent walk rate in 17.1 innings. Josh Fleming threw 32.1 innings in his rookie season last year, relying on a 63.5 percent groundball rate and 5.4 percent walk rate to cover for his 19.2 percent strikeout rate. His 2.78 ERA says it worked, but his 4.40 FIP suggests it might not in the future. Shane McClanahan debuted in the ALDS after never previously appearing above Double-A. He posted an 8.35 ERA in his four starts at that level back in 2019, but his upper-90s heat and nasty curveball suggest he's ready to get big-league hitters out.

Closer

The Rays are unlikely to deploy a traditional closer, but figuring out who's at the top of the hierarchy is still a worthwhile endeavor. Nick Anderson is presumably the favorite, as he backed up his stellar 0.55 ERA with a 44.8 percent strikeout rate and a 5.2 percent walk rate, though his strikeout rate plummeted to 14.8 percent in the playoffs while his ERA jumped to 5.52. Even with his dominant regular season last year, he only picked up six of the team's 23 saves. Diego Castillo finished second in that category with four and cruised to a 1.66 ERA, though his 25.8 percent strikeout rate would be fairly low for a closer. A career-high 60.4 percent groundball rate helped him avoid runs, but a .176 BABIP and a 100 percent strand rate deserved much of the credit as well. Pete Fairbanks somehow wasn't one of the 12 Rays to save a game last season but wound up with three in the playoffs. His 2.70 ERA and 33.3 percent strikeout rate in 26.2 regular-season innings both look like closer material.

Texas Rangers

Catcher

The Rangers have more than their fair share of holes on their roster, and the issues start behind the plate. Jose Trevino seems to be the favorite, which isn't a good sign considering he owns a career 69 wRC+ in 67 big-league games. Non-roster invitees Drew Butera and John Hicks are the only other catchers with a meaningful amount of experience at the highest level, but Hicks' career wRC+ sits at 76 while Butera's comes in at 48.

Joining that group are a pair of younger options on the 40-man roster. Jonah Heim came over in a trade from Oakland but doesn't project as a regular. He's had success in the upper minors but hit just .211/.268/.211 in his 13-game debut last year. At 23, Sam Huff has a higher ceiling and hit .355 with three homers in 10 games as a rookie last year, but he'd previously topped out at High-A, so he may not be in the mix to start the season. He's currently shut down for two weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring strain, which makes his long-shot effort to break camp with the team even longer.

First Base

This job seems to be Nate Lowe's to lose, but the Rangers are framing it as a competition between him and Ronald Guzman. Both bat left-handed, so there's no path to a platoon. Lowe failed to carve out a regular role among the Rays' large group of similarly decent corner batas, but he's hit the ball well enough through 71 big-league games. His .251/.322/.447 line is good for a 106 wRC+, and he's added a respectable 11 homers, though his 31.8 percent strikeout rate is a bit high for someone who hasn't shown elite power. Those numbers are at least better than what Guzman has shown, as he owns an 86 wRC+ in 236 career games, though he did at least produce an above-average batting line in a small sample of 26 games last year.

Third Base

Rougned Odor's star has fallen far in recent seasons, as he's now forced to compete for at-bats at the hot corner with a pair of non-roster invitees. It's hard to say he deserves anything more, as he's struck out more than 30 percent of the time in each of the last two seasons while hitting  .197/.268/.433. Veteran utility man Brock Holt might be his stiffest competition. He hit a solid .286/.366/.407 in 2018 and 2019 but saw his line collapse to just .211/.283/.274 last year. Charlie Culberson is also in the mix but is coming off a year in which he only came to the plate seven times and is a career .247/.292/.390 hitter.

Designated Hitter

Willie Calhoun hasn't done nearly enough at the plate over his four-year career for someone who's very much a bat-first player, hitting .245/.297/.430 in 160 games. He homered just once in 29 games last season while hitting .190. Khris Davis will be his primary competition at the designated hitter spot but is very much a reclamation project. Following three consecutive 40-homer seasons, he's hit just .217/.294/.378 the last two years. He's now 33, so a return to peak form is unlikely.

Fifth Starter

Mike Foltynewicz seemingly has the inside track on this job, but he has a lot to prove after his 2020 season. He was designated for assignment after just one start while showing significantly reduced velocity and looking underweight. He signed a major-league deal, however, so the Rangers seem to have some faith in him. The options behind him aren't particularly compelling. Kyle Cody recorded a 1.59 ERA in his 22.2-inning debut last year, but his 18:13 K:BB hints at significant regression. Kolby Allard now has a 6.72 ERA in 87 career major-league innings and may be headed for a bullpen role. Non-roster invitee Tyson Ross opted out last season and recorded a 5.34 ERA  the previous four years. Brock Burke made six poor starts in 2019 but missed all last year due to shoulder surgery. The wild card is Hyeon-Jong Yang, who signed a minor-league deal following a long and successful career in Korea. He'll turn 33 on March 1, however, and is coming off a year in which he struggled to a 4.70 ERA, his highest in eight seasons.

Closer

There may not be too many games that need saving in Texas this season, and the team has hinted at using a committee approach. Jose Leclerc has 29 career saves and a 3.19 ERA, but he hasn't been at that level for a few years. His 4.33 ERA in 2019 wasn't closer material, and he made just two appearances last season before being shut down with a strained shoulder. Jonathan Hernandez looks like an interesting alternative after posting a 2.90 ERA last season. His fastball averaged 97.8 mph while his slider was 89.2 mph, and he also used a 91 mph changeup, so he has a closer's repertoire. That didn't translate to a closer's strikeout rate, however, as he struck out a barely above-average 24.8 percent.

Toronto Blue Jays

Rotation

The Blue Jays appear to have at least one too many candidates for their rotation. Hyun Jin Ryu is obviously a lock, but the picture after that is less clear, as everyone else comes with questions. Nate Pearson remains one of the top prospects in baseball, but he didn't ease any concerns about his health during his debut season last year, getting shut down with a flexor strain after just four starts. He also didn't demonstrate much of his considerable talent, struggling to a 6.00 ERA and a 16:13 K:BB, so that combination of factors could cause Toronto to ease him into a true starting role. Robbie Ray had been a risky but generally effective starter most of his career, but everything fell apart last season. His walk rate ballooned to 17.9 percent and his groundball fell collapsed to 24.3 percent as he struggled to a 6.62 ERA, but the Jays brought him back on an $8 million deal anyway, so they must have seen something they liked.

The other options don't have the same upside, but that doesn't necessarily mean they have higher floors. Tanner Roark has minimal value if he's not eating innings, but Toronto won't ask him to do that if he looks no better than the guy who produced a 6.80 ERA and 1.74 WHIP last season. Steven Matz was a decent option throughout most of his time with the Mets, but his ERA exploded to 9.68 last year. That came with a career-high 25.4 percent strikeout rate, though, and his 7.0 percent walk rate was also strong, convincing Toronto to acquire him in an offseason trade. Lastly, Ross Stripling owned a 3.51 ERA through his first four big-league seasons but struggled to a 5.84 mark last year on either side of a trade from the Dodgers.

Washington Nationals

Third Base

This might not be a true competition, as the Nationals clearly want Carter Kieboom to win the job. They didn't bring in any experienced option to compete with him, though his track record  suggests it's not automatic that he'll beat out the team's existing options. While 44 big-league games isn't nearly enough to write off a 23-year-old with plenty of prospect pedigree, his anemic .181/.309/.232 line in those games is very discouraging. His path to playing time is made easier by the fact that Josh Harrison is the most difficult name for him to beat out. The veteran's .278/.352/.418 line last season was miles better than anything Kieboom has accomplished, however. The Nationals could also slide Starlin Castro to third and stick with Luis Garcia at second base. Garcia looked overmatched as a rookie, making decent contact but not showing any eye or pop. That led to an unimpressive .276/.302/.366 slash line, though again, that's better than what Kieboom has accomplished.