Mike Foltynewicz

Foltynewicz pitched 51.1 innings in the minor leagues in 2019, first over four starts in Gwinnett to begin the season and then again from late June through the end of July. To that point of the season, he was 2-5 with a 6.37 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 2.3 HR/9. He made 10 more starts after his final recall from Triple-A and went 6-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, holding opponents to a .210 average. It was night and day for him, just like his two appearances in the NLDS. He was lights out in Game 2, throwing seven innings of shutout baseball, but could not get out of the first inning in the deciding Game 5 as he had no pitch command and the Cardinals made him pay for it. The second half resurgence saw him nearly double the usage of his slider from the first half of the season while also throwing more two-seamers and de-emphasizing his four-seam fastball. Buy back in, but as an SP4 with SP3 potential.

Even those who were "one year early" predicting Foltynewicz's breakout had to be impressed with his 2018 campaign, especially in the strikeout department. That said, before thrusting Foltynewicz to near-ace level, note his .251 BABIP was artificially low according to batted-ball and Statcast data. Expect a higher hit rate in 2018 and the corresponding ERA and WHIP correction. There is a chance his 9.1% walk rate could drop a few ticks, and if that happens, it would soften the impact from hit-rate regression. Key to Foltynewicz's success was added velocity across the board, but especially to his slider, making it one of the most effective pitches in the league. He also began throwing his changeup in fastball counts, keeping hitters off balance. Another year removed from 2015 thoracic outlet surgery, health is not currently a concern as Foltynewicz eclipsed 180 frames for the first time. Pursue aggressively, but don't expect a full repeat of 2018.

Just when it seemed like Foltynewicz was headed for a breakout season, he imploded, finishing with a 7.27 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over his final nine starts (43.1 innings). He did a better job of limiting the long ball in the second half (five homers allowed) and he added to his strikeout rate after the All-Star break, but Foltynewicz's walk rate jumped from 3.0 BB/9 to 4.1, and he allowed more hard contact. Foltynewicz struggled against lefties overall, especially at home -- lefty batters slashed .344/.421/.492 against him at SunTrust Park -- and he was far worse the second (5.77 ERA) and third-time through the order (6.10 ERA) than he was the first time through (2.73 ERA). There is still appeal here given his fastball velocity and quality of his secondary stuff, but the home park is a big negative and Foltynewicz's chances at wins will be limited if he can't find a way to work deeper into games.

He should be nicknamed "Mike Filthynewicz" with his repertoire: a mid-90s heater, a piercing slider, a hammer curve and an emerging changeup. He's still figuring it all out, but his 2016 was a nice step forward. He set career-bests in ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, walk rate, groundball rate and HR/9. It's not a great sign when 4.31 ERA is your best ever, but it's still legitimate progress for the one-time top-100 prospect who was starting to look like a bit of a bust, even in the small 105-inning sample he had prior to 2016. He should enter his age-25 season with a firm handle on a rotation spot, eyeing his first full season and hoping to build on his '16 gains. A baseline 9-10 percent swinging strike rate is a good foundation and the raw stuff portends more. Go an extra $1 on ol' Filthynewicz.

Foltynewicz was beaten out for a rotation spot by Eric Stults in spring training and opened the year at Triple-A Gwinnett. The results in his first four starts for Gwinnett were encouraging (2.08 ERA), and the Braves decided to give him a look after punting on Trevor Cahill less than a month into the season. Foltynewicz did a few things well, but his reliance on the fastball was well scouted and hitters took advantage, making hard contact nearly a third of the time and putting the ball in the air more than 43 percent of the time. That led to a 1.8 HR/9 rate and further questions about his viability as a starter. If moved to the bullpen, Foltynewicz could be a valuable back-end arm given the premium velocity, but the Braves may be inclined to give him one last shot at proving himself as a starter. Everything will ultimately depend on Foltynewicz's health; he was diagnosed with blood clots in his arm late in the year and then had to have part of his rib removed.

Foltynewicz, 23, got a taste of the big leagues late last season, throwing 18.2 innings mostly in low-leverage situations out of the bullpen for the Astros. Execs with the team conceded he may not have been ready for that opportunity, however, as he allowed three home runs while compiling a 5.30 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. It's a small sample size, but the hard-throwing right-hander didn't fare much better at Triple-A Oklahoma City. In 21 appearances (18 starts) with the RedHawks, Foltynewicz went 7-7 with a 5.08 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 102:52 K:BB ratio over 102.2 innings. Traded to Atlanta in January, Foltynewicz was a key piece in the deal that sent Evan Gattis to Atlanta. Armed with a plus fastball that regularly hits 100 mph, "Folty" will need to show better control of his pitches (4.6 BB/9) to carve out a significant role with the Braves in 2015. A return to Triple-A appears likely, at least to open the season, but he has a very high ceiling if his control improves.

Foltynewicz, the Astros' 2012 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, turned in a fine season for Double-A Corpus Christi after a brief stint with Houston's High-A affiliate. The 22-year-old flamethrower appeared in 23 games (16 starts) for the Hooks and went 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA over 103.1 innings. Opposing batters hit a mere .207 against the right-hander, but they also took 52 free passes as Foltynewicz's control problems remained. If he improves his walk rate (4.5 BB/9 in Double-A), Foltynewicz's stock will go up even higher as he emerged as one of the better pitching prospects in the minors last season. He will likely make the jump to Triple-A this season, while the possibility of a late-season callup is not out of the question if he performs well there.

The second time through the Sally League was much better for Foltynewicz than the first: he posted a 14-4 record across 27 starts and lowered his ERA by nearly two runs to 3.14. The improvement was enough to earn him the Most Outstanding Pitcher award in the Sally League and the Minor League Pitcher of the Year award for the Houston organization. The former first-round pick has pitched to contact more in recent years, which has resulted in fewer strikeouts, but (at least last year) better outcomes. While the team is still trying him out as a starter, there are those that think the lack of viable secondary pitches may make him best suited for the bullpen down the line. He will likely begin 2013 in Double-A, still working out of the rotation.