Zach Davies

Davies made 32 starts for the Cubs last season and was unable to replicate his 2.73 ERA from the shortened 2020 campaign, and he finished with a 5.78 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 114:75 K:BB across 148 innings. Making half his starters in the Windy City certainly didn't help, but the right-hander's issues went deeper as he posted a career-high 11.2 percent walk rate, which is especially poor since he's a low-velocity pitcher who relies on hitting his spots. Davies is with the Diamondbacks on a one-year deal, and he won't offer much upside even if he regains his 2020 form since he still won't produce much for strikeouts or wins.

Davies was shipped from Milwaukee to San Diego last offseason, and the significant upgrade in park seemed set to boost his fantasy value. That did indeed happen, as he produced a very strong 2.73 ERA in 12 starts after posting a 3.91 ERA in his five years as a Brewer. His improvement was more than just a change in park, however. After producing a career-low 15.2 K% in 2019, he smashed his previous high in 2020, posting a 22.8 K%. His 6.9 BB% was his lowest mark since 2017. Those changes came with a shift in his repertoire, as his changeup usage soared to 41.3%, ahead of his fastball (38.5%). That means there's a good chance his short-season gains stick, though we still shouldn't get too ahead of ourselves. Even his improved strikeout rate remained below-average, and his ERA came with a modest 3.88 FIP, so don't expect another sub-3.00 mark, especially now that he'll call hitter-friendly Wrigley Field home.

Injuries limited Davies to just 13 starts in 2018, but he bounced back in 2019, leading the Brewers with 31 starts and 159.2 innings pitched. Davies became the first pitcher in Brewers history to begin a season 7-0, compiling a 2.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 48 strikeouts in his first 74.2 frames. The right-hander labored through his next 10 starts before briefly landing on the IL with a back injury. Davies righted the ship upon his return, posting a 2.92 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his final eight appearances (37 innings). He finished the season with a career-best 3.55 ERA, though the estimators say he was pitching over his skis (4.56 FIP, 5.20 xFIP). Davies should enter spring training with the inside track on a rotation spot for San Diego following a November trade. While he doesn't miss many bats (career 6.6 K/9), Davies has tallied 10 or more wins while posting a sub-4.00 ERA in three of the past four seasons.

Davies started 61 games for the Brewers across the 2016 and 2017 seasons, so it was thought that he would be a regular in the Brewers' rotation all last year. However, thanks to injuries and managerial decisions, he made just 13 starts, and only saw action in one postseason game. Davies' underlying numbers in 2018 weren't all that different than the year before -- he averaged 89 mph on his fastball, and his 4.43 FIP was just a tick higher than the 4.27 FIP he posted in 2017 -- so not much has changed with his profile. Davies will head into spring training as a favorite to come away with a spot in the team's rotation to open the regular season. He accumulated 28 wins across 2016 and 2017 for teams not as talented as the current Brewers' version, so he could be a sneaky producer in that category should he stay healthy in 2019.

Davies struggled throughout the first half of 2017, as he gave up a surprisingly high number of homers (1.39 HR/9) and also missed bats at a significantly lower clip than he did in 2016, with his strikeout rate falling from 7.4 K/9 to 5.8. Fortunately for the Brewers, he was much more effective in the second half, lowering his ERA by more than two full runs (2.87) despite similar strikeout and walk rates thanks to a big step forward with the long ball. For the season, Davies improved his groundball rate (50.2 percent), and managed to reduce his home-run rate from 2016 in a year where the league-wide surge in homers pushed most pitchers in the other direction. The lack of overpowering stuff and a low swinging-strike rate (7.2 percent) make a spike in strikeouts unlikely, and widen the range of outcomes for him as he's very dependent on the defense behind him. Davies commands his arsenal well, and he should remain a fixture in the Milwaukee rotation throughout 2018.

For the second straight season, the rail-thin righty turned in an above-average performance out of Milwaukee's rotation. Davies may not have big velocity (89.3 mph average fastball), but he can change speeds and use his offspeed pitches to close out counts when he gets ahead. It was also impressive to see Davies respond positively after an utterly atrocious start. He allowed five runs over just 2.1 innings in his first start April 17 and finished April with an 8.78 ERA in three starts. He went on to allow more than three runs just four times in his final 25 starts, going 11-4 with a 3.54 ERA in 150 innings over that span. His lack of dominant stuff limits his ceiling, but Davies is already looking like a solid mid-rotation pitcher -- at just 24 years old no less.

Davies earned six starts after rosters expanded in September and steadily improved throughout his stint, as he posted three consecutive quality starts to finish off the season, including two starts of at least six shutout innings. Davies is rail-thin, listed at 6-feet and 160 pounds, and his fastball averaged just under 90 mph. But he induced an extreme amount of groundballs (57.6%) and was just crafty enough to keep the ball in the yard, as he surrendered just two home runs. His changeup looked particularly nasty, as hitters swung and missed at more than one in every four he threw, and he picked up 13 of his 25 strikeouts with the pitch. Davies will have to remain crafty without a big fastball, but he has the diverse repertoire necessary to succeed in the majors, even if he lacks a top-end ceiling.