Zach Eflin

It was a nice moment when Eflin, who'd endured more of the Phillies' playoff drought than most, recorded his first career save in the game which clinched the the team's first playoff berth since 2011, but the fact that he was pitching in relief in the first place is unfortunately what fantasy managers should be primarily concerned with. Knee issues limited Eflin to 18 starts in 2021, and they didn't go away in 2022. He finished with 13 starts and seven relief appearances. When healthy, he was the same unexciting but capable pitcher he's been for the past several seasons, as his 4.04 ERA and 20.8 K% were both near matches for the 4.12 ERA and 21.4 K% he managed from 2019 through 2021. His 4.8 BB% was excellent, as usual, but while many low-whiff, low-walk pitchers become durable back-end starters, Eflin's injuries mean he lacks that reliability. The Rays are betting on some untapped potential and gambling on his health, as they gave him the richest free agent contract in team history (three years, $40 million). He should open the year in the middle of the rotation. Eflin's sinker and cutter show some intriguing movement qualities and he excelled at limiting hard contact last season (96th percentile average exit velocity), so perhaps the Rays can extract a career year with the aid of a massive home park upgrade.