Julio Teheran

It was odd that, in a year where so many pitchers struggled with the long ball, Teheran actually reduced his home-run rate. He still has not posted a HR/9 below 1.0 the past four seasons, but last year was progress. The issue with him of late has been walks, and the 10.5 K-BB% is below league average for a starting pitcher. If he gets the BABIP luck he had in 2018, the WHIP is not so bad. Otherwise, he has the potential to negatively impact both ratio categories. He owns a career BABIP of .268 and has stranded 76% of his baserunners, so what he did in 2019 to pitch around his walks and homers wasn't totally fluky. It just always feels like he's pitching around trouble. When it works, 2019 happens; when it doesn't, 2017 happens. He is consistently healthy, but that is about the only thing consistent in his profile. Teheran will slot into the Angels' starting rotation after signing a one-year deal in December.

Narrative: Teheran can’t pitch at home. The real story is he struggles against LHB. The home/away splits have been a sample-size artifact, as evidenced by a similar season home and away in 2018. The root of Teheran’s woes is increasingly poor control facing LHB. The last three seasons, his walk rates facing LHB have been 8.3%, 12.8% and 17.5%. Predictably, Teheran’s strikeout rates are better versus RHB, though they hit him for more power. An important repercussion of the excessive walks versus LHB is having to work from the less-effective stretch more often. In 2018, Teheran was able to combat the walks with a luck-driven .217 BABIP. The last two seasons, all of Teheran’s expected ERAs cluster in the high-4’s so he’s vulnerable to regress there with a hit rate correction. Let someone else pay for last year’s good fortune.

Teheran was a massive disappointment in 2017, with his strikeout rate falling to 18.6 percent -- his lowest mark in a full season -- and his walk rate jumping to 8.9 percent (from 5.4 percent in 2016). Lefties were always a problem for him, but that was even more true last season, especially at his new home in SunTrust Park (.266/.386/.541, .391 wOBA). Perhaps most troubling was the fact that opposing right-handers -- against whom Teheran had historically had great success -- got to him for a .272/.313/.440 line, coinciding with a decline in the quality of his changeup. He's cheap now compared to where he was going in drafts last spring, but the home park combined with his flyball tendencies, the step back in performance and red flags in his underlying stats make Teheran a risky investment at any price point.

It was a strong rebound effort from Teheran in 2016. He found his control (his walk rate fell to 2013-14 levels) and with less traffic on the bases from free passes, he allowed fewer hits. All of it resulted in a season almost identical to 2014, complete with another All-Star appearance. His fastball works 91-93 mph, but he works it up in the zone which leverages effective velocity and makes it look more like 94-95 mph regularly. Teheran's biggest hurdle remains consistently thwarting lefties. He was awful in 2013, great in 2014, horrific in 2015, and then OK in 2016. It all comes down to the fastball, but it works so well against righties that it seems fixable versus lefties. Three good years out of four from a 26-year-old usually has their stock soaring, but Teheran remains eminently affordable. Slot him in as your third starter and enjoy the number-two upside.

Hearing a Teheran owner talk about his 2015 season, one might think he had a 10.00 ERA in 200 innings. It’s framed as a meltdown when it was just a tough season that further highlights the vagaries of pitching. If anything, it should make us appreciate the consistency of the studs even more. Teheran took his 33 turns, maintained his 2013-14 velocity levels, and missed bats at the same clip as 2014. However, his walk and home run rates spiked as lefties (310-point OPS platoon split) and the road (5.40 ERA) tanked his season. Every pitch regressed in swinging-strike rate against lefties and only three starting pitchers had a higher walk+homer rate (BB+HR/BF) than Teheran’s 15 percent (James Shields “led” the league at 17%). In 2013-14, Teheran was right at average (10%). It’s hard to pinpoint the “why” behind the struggles and there is no guarantee he fixes the issue, but it could just be youth and now his price is too low not to take a chance.

At 24, Teheran has already proven deserving of the ace of staff label in Atlanta. Injuries to Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy in spring training thrust Teheran into the role and the right-hander went on to turn in eight straight quality starts to begin the year, leading to a 2.71 ERA and .224 BAA in the first half of the season. Like many of his teammates, Teheran regressed after the All-Star break, but his strikeout and walk rates remained intact for the most part and he showed great durability, holding up to a 221-inning workload (third-most in NL). He went the distance four times, notching two shutouts and shaved nearly 10 points off his WHIP. Teheran did see his fastball drop in velocity yet again, losing more than a mile per hour off it from 2013, and his .267 BABIP suggests he may have slightly overachieved, but he's already a top-20 pitcher and there's still room to grow.

Teheran struggled mightily at Triple-A Gwinnett in 2012, leading to some second-guessing about his billing as one of the top young pitching prospects in the game. The Braves made Teheran earn the No. 5 starter job last spring, and the right-hander did just that, but he got off to a rough start to the regular season, with a 5.08 ERA in April. Things seemed to click shortly thereafter, as Teheran went on to post outstanding overall numbers as a 22-year-old rookie. While efficiency is an issue -- he made it out of the seventh inning just five times in 30 starts -- Teheran has great command of his pitches (2.2 BB/9) and will likely only get better as he learns how to further handle major league hitters. On the heels of his stellar campaign, Teheran is assured of a rotation spot this time around.

Teheran's detractors have pointed to his lack of a decent breaking pitch and too-straight fastball as reasons why he won’t succeed in a major league rotation. So far he has struggled when in the majors and he had an awful year in Triple-A in 2012, posting a 5.08 ERA and giving up an uncharacteristically high 1.2 HR/9. That was his second go-around in Triple-A and it is not uncommon for players repeating a level they previously dominated to struggle the second year. Teheran still has an amazing changeup and very good control, and was once a top-three pitching prospect for a reason. Don’t give up on him just yet.

Teheran may the top pitching prospect in baseball after having an outstanding season at Triple-A Gwinnett last year at just 20 years old (15-3 with a 2.55 ERA and 122:48 K:BB ratio in 144.2 innings). He wasn't as impressive in his five appearances in the majors (three starts) and his strikeout rate at Triple-A wasn't elite (7.6 K/9IP), but neither should be a major red flag given his young age and minor league track record. Teheran has a mid-90s fastball and plus changeup, along with a baseball IQ rare for his age. He could win a spot in the Atlanta rotation this spring. Even if he begins the season at Triple-A, it won't be long before he's in the Atlanta rotation for the long term.

Teheran may be the best pitching prospect in baseball after moving up three levels and climbing to Double-A last season at age 19. He has a mid-90s fastball and plus changeup, along with a baseball IQ rare for his age. After posting a 1.17 ERA with a 45:10 K:BB ratio at Low-A Rome, he was even more impressive at High-A Myrtle Beach with a 2.98 ERA and 76:13 K:BB ratio in 63.1 innings that included striking out 14 batters in one game. He more than held his own as a 19-year-old at Double-A with a 3.38 ERA and 38:17 K:BB ratio in 40 innings. He'll likely begin the season at Double-A, but a trip to the majors in September isn't out of the question. He could be pitching at the top of Atlanta's rotation before 2013.

A 16-year old with a low-90s heater when he signed with the Braves, Teheran finally started to capitalize on his raw talent last season. He had a 2.68 ERA with a 39:7 K:BB ratio in 43.2 innings in rookie ball and then held his own as an 18-year-old at Low-A Rome with a 28:11 K:BB ratio in 37.2 innings. If he keeps throwing strikes with his low-90s fastball and excellent changeup, he could emerge as a top prospect in 2010.

Teheran's biggest asset is that he threw in the mid-90s as just a 17-year old in rookie ball last season. While his 6.60 ERA was ugly, the 17:4 K:BB ratio in 15 innings shows promise. He was limited to just six appearances due to shoulder issues, so his health is an unknown for 2009. He's pretty raw at this point, but a name to watch the next few years.