Aaron Civale

Civale came into 2021 with a lot of hype, but ended it with more questions than answers. The young hurler re-worked his repertoire in the winter with a desire to go with more four-seamers than two-seam fastballs while adding a split-change to give him six pitches by which to attack hitters. Early on, things went well as Civale was 10-2 in his first 15 starts with a 3.32 ERA and 1.06 WHIP while holding opponents to a .226 average. A finger sprain shut him down in mid-June and kept him out until September where he closed the season 2-3 with a 5.74 ERA (6.85 FIP), 1.31 WHIP and .257 opponents' average. The fastball was particularly painful for Civale as the league slugged over .600 off both the two- and four-seam fastballs, and even the splitter had a .484 SLG against, so the transition work is by no means done. His 2022 success hinges upon that transition getting over the speed bumps.

A popular sleeper pick heading into 2020, Civale looked early on like he was headed for that breakout, posting a 2.97 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 32:3 K:BB over his first five starts spanning 34 innings. However, things took a turn for the worse and an eight-run blowup on the second-to-last day of the season capped a disappointing stretch run, bringing Civale's final ERA to 4.74. The estimators are kinder to his performance, putting his deserved ERA closer to 4.00 over his total of 12 starts. Civale does not light up the radar gun and there may not be much room for growth when it comes to strikeouts (22.1 K% last season), but he has a diverse pitch mix -- sinker, cutter, curveball, slider, changeup, four-seamer -- and good command. He pitches in a favorable division and for a team that has had success grooming its young starters. It's not a flashy skill set, but Civale is a nice staff filler with ratio upside.

Injuries to Cleveland's rotation opened the door for Civale to make his major-league debut in 2019 and he enjoyed quite a bit of success. His 92.6 mph sinking fastball doesn't overpower hitters and he does not have a true wipeout pitch, but he can change speed and command his pitches well enough to be effective. Although 2019 provided a limited sample size for the right-hander, he pitched five innings or more in nine of his 10 starts. The 24-year-old's performance will likely afford him an opportunity to compete for a starting role in 2020. Civale impressed in his first glimpse of major-league action and could be a fantasy sleeper in 2020; the low strikeout rate will understandably drive many away, but if you squint you can see a bit of Kyle Hendricks upside here. It helps that he pitches in the weak AL Central and has a top-five defense behind him.