Nathaniel Lowe

29-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Texas Rangers

2024 Stats

AVG

.265

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Our 2023 outlook for Lowe came together rather well in the end as the first baseman regressed to previous levels in the face of the new rules. Lowe remains one of the more disciplined hitters in the league who will patiently work a count while looking for his pitch while being more than willing to accept a walk in any given situation. Lowe's issues against lefties (.223) helped pull his batting average down in 2023, but given he hit .277 and .330 against lefties in the previous two seasons, it would not surprise us to see him recover in 2024 to add some more life to his average. Despite his size, Lowe has league-average speed but Texas has not put him in motion over the past two seasons after allowing him some opportunities in 2021. Lowe is in an enviable position of playing daily in a potent lineup and has the potential to drive in 100 and even score 100 if the guys around him stay healthy all season. 2022 may have been his ceiling, but maybe not. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Overall Rank

Dynasty

From Preseason

#268

ADP

League Majors

Bats L

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'4"

Weight 220

DOB 7/7/1995

Born Norfolk, VA

College Mississippi State

Drafted 13th Rd 2016 TB

Homers in win

1BTexas Rangers

September 29, 2024

Lowe went 2-for-4 with a two-run homer, a double, two runs scored and a walk in Sunday's win over the Angels.

ANALYSIS
Lowe doubled and scored the game's first run in the fourth inning before ripping a two-run shot in the eighth. It was his second straight game with a double and a home run after producing just one extra-base hit in his previous 13 contests. Lowe wrapped up the 2024 season with a .265/.361/.401 slash line and 33 extra-base hits through 565 plate appearances.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+2%

OPS vs RHP

2024

+6%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+30%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+13%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.785	574	57	17	78	0	.280	.359	.426
Since 2022vs Right	.803	1360	168	43	149	5	.275	.360	.443
2024vs Left	.796	144	13	3	26	0	.292	.396	.400
2024vs Right	.751	421	49	13	43	2	.257	.349	.402
2023vs Left	.642	219	18	4	23	0	.223	.311	.332
2023vs Right	.833	505	71	13	59	1	.279	.382	.451
2022vs Left	.920	211	26	10	29	0	.330	.384	.536
2022vs Right	.817	434	48	17	47	2	.288	.346	.471
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+5%

OPS on Road

2024

+3%

OPS on Road

2023

+7%

OPS at Home

2022

+18%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.779	946	113	29	103	4	.269	.353	.426
Since 2022Away	.815	988	112	31	124	1	.284	.366	.449
2024Home	.749	279	31	8	28	2	.254	.355	.394
2024Away	.775	286	31	8	41	0	.276	.367	.408
2023Home	.803	353	48	11	48	1	.270	.360	.443
2023Away	.747	371	41	6	34	0	.253	.361	.386
2022Home	.778	314	34	10	27	1	.280	.344	.434
2022Away	.919	331	40	17	49	1	.322	.372	.547
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Stat Review

How does Nathaniel Lowe compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.57

BB Rate

12.6%

K Rate

22.1%

BABIP

.324

ISO

.136

AVG

.265

OBP

.361

SLG

.401

OPS

.762

wOBA

.341

Exit Velocity

88.9 mph

Hard Hit Rate

30.1%

Barrels/PA

3.7%

Expected BA

.252

Expected SLG

.380

Sprint Speed

22.8 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

47.7%

Line Drive %

23.0%

Fly Ball %

29.3%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Nathaniel Lowe Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

Lowe had a surprisingly terrific fantasy season in his second full season at the major leagues setting career highs nearly across the board. The .302 batting average was a huge surprise given he is not the quickest of players, but 19 infield hits on mostly weakly hit balls against the shift certainly helped push his batting average up this season. He also finally showed more consistent loft in his swing, and while he still has a 1.5:1 grounder to flyball ratio, that is an improvement over the 2.0 level he was living at in previous seasons. He has always been an excellent hitter when ahead in the count, but 2022 was the first time he wasn't futile when down in the count. Lowe hit .281 in such situations this past season going .179 in such situations previously. If you are banking on him hitting near .300 again, factor in that data point as well as the infield hits with the shifting rules changing. Draft for run production and level set your batting average projections a tercile lower.

In Lowe's first full MLB season, his output was acceptable. The 18 homers were disappointing from a first baseman, but he contributed eight steals after stealing five total in his five previous seasons. Hitting the ball hard is not the issue, with most of his Statcast hard-hit metrics in the league's top 25%. Instead, his power production will be limited if he continues to post a 55 GB%, a number that kept ballooning as the season went on (59.4 GB% in the second half, 62.8% in September). On the other hand, he did show a nice improvement in his plate discipline with his walk rate up and his strikeouts down from 36.8% to 25.2%. He's sort of morphing into an Eric Hosmer clone. His profile has been bouncing around, so it's tough to get a read on his future value. There is some hope for upside if he raises his launch angle and becomes more of a 30-homer hitter. Roster him late if you want but be ready to move on quickly if changes don't come.

Lowe opened the year at the Rays' alternate training site despite having demonstrated he can handle major-league pitching by posting a .779 OPS in 50 games the season prior. Injuries created a need for a corner bat, and Lowe was promoted Aug. 2. He started slow, slashing .071/.235/.143 over his first six games before closing on fire with a .409/.500/.864 line, though Lowe fanned at a 42% clip over those final seven games. Tampa Bay traded Lowe to Texas in December and he's slated to be the Rangers' regular first baseman. Lowe has proven all he can at the Triple-A level, but he's been unable to carry the contact shown in the minors to the major-league level. When he hits the ball, Lowe has made a lot of hard contact with a good mix of flyballs and groundballs to aid both average and power. It's speculative, but there are ample positive signs to take a late flier on Lowe at corner or utility.

Lowe appeared in his first 50 MLB games in 2019, holding his own with a .263/.325/.454 slash line (good for a 107 wRC+) and seven homers. On most teams that would be enough for him to at least start on the strong side of a platoon, but with Ji-Man Choi and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo already in the fold as left-handed hitters at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, Lowe could be ticketed for Triple-A. Scouts like both his power and contact, and he managed a strong .289/.421/.508 line in 93 games for Triple-A Durham. His plate discipline was particularly noteworthy over that stretch, as he posted a 17.7 BB% and a 20.2 K%, far better than his 7.7 BB% and 29.6 K% in the majors. He had an .888 OPS in 178 PA against same-handed pitching at Triple-A, so a move to a less platoon-happy organization would be a boon for his fantasy value. If the Rays stand pat, it could mean another year of inconsistent playing time.

Prior to 2018, Lowe’s claim to fame was being the older brother of Josh Lowe, the Rays’ selection with the No. 13 overall pick in 2016. Nathaniel was less heralded, transferring from Mercer to St. Johns River State College to Mississippi State before Tampa selected him in the 13th round in 2016. As an older first baseman with minimal pedigree, he wasn’t considered much of a prospect until he exploded in his third pro season. Lowe was the best hitter in the Florida State League (191 wRC+), got promoted to Double-A, was the best hitter in the Southern League (193 wRC+), and finally got challenged after a promotion to Triple-A. His walk rate dipped (15.6% to 7.3%), his strikeout rate spiked (13.3% to 24.5%) and his pull rate jumped by 11%. If he can recapture the patient, all-fields, flyball-oriented approach he showed at Double-A, Lowe will look the part of a big-league cleanup hitter. If not, there is some Quadruple-A hitter risk.

More Fantasy News

Fuels comeback win

1BTexas Rangers

September 29, 2024

Lowe went 3-for-4 with a walk, a double, a home run, three RBI and two additional runs scored in Saturday's 9-8 win over the Angels.