Collette Calls: 2025 NL East Bold Predictions

I hope you enjoyed the first installment of this year's series, the first 10 of a set of 60 bold predictions which will be published before the end of January. This week, we'll cover some NL East predictions. Last year, this installment produced several gems, as I outlined why Mark Vientos, Sean Manaea, and Jeff Hoffman should be targeted while stating my case why Spencer Strider should not be taken where he was going. Those all played out extremely well, but my Austin Riley and Trea Turner predictions did not. I hope some of these predictions work out as well as some of last year's did, but that trio of hits with Vientos, Manaea and Hoffman set a high bar.

All ADP references are from the 49 Draft Champions drafts completed at NFBC so far this offseason. 

Atlanta

Sean Murphy is a top-eight fantasy catcher (ADP 240)

Murphy had a rough go of it in 2024. A severe oblique strain wiped out the first two months of the season for him, and he promptly got drilled on his elbow within a week of returning from the injured list. It's amazing he even got to 10 homers by season's end because he never quite looked like himself at the plate. Murphy finished the 2023 season as the ninth most valuable catcher by fantasy dollars earned despite garnering only 370 plate appearances. Murphy was the seventh most valuable catcher in 2022 when he had 537 at-bats in Oakland, and that's the history I'm going back to for this prediction.

Murphy shared time in 2023 with Travis d'Arnaud, whose bat and defense were better than most second catchers and who needed some regular time in the lineup to stay sharp. Atlanta has changed the structure of their roster, so now Chadwick Tromp is the backup until the club decides Drake Baldwin is ready. It's my belief that Murphy is going to get all the playing time he can handle at catcher, with Tromp getting the getaway games and the Sunday afternoon catching assignments until such time that Baldwin is deemed ready for the club. This is what Murphy's 2023 StatCast slider profile looked like before that nightmare 2024 season hit:

That talent is still there once you scrape away the residual scar tissue of last year's injuries. Murphy is currently being drafted in the 16th round as the 16th catcher off the board, which I believe is due to recency bias. Even if Baldwin does make the roster, how much playing time is going to be given to a rookie catcher over someone the club just signed to a six-year deal in 2023? Catcher is a risky position year in and year out, but should you decide to pass on the seven catchers currently going inside the top 100, Murphy is a fine target in the back half of the draft who should have a nice bounceback season assuming he can avoid the injury bug at the plate.

Spencer Schwellenbach is not a top-80 pitcher (ADP 98)

Schwellenbach is 41st on the pitcher board, neatly tucked in between Grayson Rodriguez and Hunter Brown.  He has gone as high as 61st overall, probably to Justin Mason, and as low as 141. I kid my Sunday podcast host because he is flying his Schwellenbach fanboy flag proudly this winter much like he did with Bailey Ober. However, while I often agree with Justin on things, this is an area where we differ.

This may sound like a broken record, but go back and read what I wrote about Spencer Strider last season because a lot of it applies here. Schwellenbach was a dominant reliever at Nebraska for one season, got drafted 59th overall, and then had to have Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2022 season. He worked 65 innings while starting 16 games in the minors in 2023 before making 29 starts across three levels and accumulating 168.2 innings in the Atlanta system in 2024. 

Schwellenbach increased his career workload from 2021 to 2023 by 74.5 percent in 2024 alone, and the year-over-year increase from 2023 to 2024 was a staggering 159.4 percent. Even if you prefer to look at pitches thrown over innings, Schwellenbach's year-over-year increase in pitch count grew by 175.4 percent. Simply put, we do not know how his young body is going to bounce back from such an increase in workload and that unknown is what concerns me, just as it did with Strider last season. Strider was supposed to be safe from the ills because of how much of his delivery was built from his tree trunk legs and such, but it didn't take long for that belief to be blown up. As I mentioned last year, Julio Urias did just fine in his follow-up year, while Triston McKenzie and Alek Manoah flopped.

There is a lot to like about Schwellenbach because he gets his strikeouts, he doesn't hurt himself with walks, and he's done a good job of keeping the ball in the yard in his professional career. However, seeing him inside the top-100 picks is one of those situations where I'll let others take the chance while I acquire several pitchers going 40-plus picks later who have less perceived physical risk. 

Miami

Jesus Sanchez is a top-200 overall player (ADP 254)

I will preface by stating that I firmly believe this Miami team is going to quickly challenge the record the White Sox set just this past season for most loses. This team is terrible on paper and, now that Sandy Alcantara's contract has doubled in its price, he could be dealt away at any time. Sanchez is the best redeeming offensive player on this club, and I can see a path where he volumes his way to value despite the lack of surrounding talent.

Just last season, Andrew Vaughn drove in 70x runs for the White Sox while Andrew Benintendi homered 20 times and Luis Robert Jr. stole 23 bases. What if one player did all three of those things at once for a bad team? Sanchez has the bat speed to hit the homers and the license to steal bases after going 16-for-18 on the basepaths in 2024. He has his flaws and would be sitting for a contending team against lefties, but he can play everyday for the rebuilding Marlins and volume his way to value. He posts some of the best exit velocities in the league and is going to challenge 600 plate appearances this season due to a lack of options. Sanchez may see his batting average come down with overexposure to lefties, but a 20/20/70/70 .240 season is in the realm of possibilities.

Calvin Faucher finishes inside the top-300 overall (ADP 443)

Someone has to save games on a bad team, and Michael Kopech had nine saves with the White Sox before he was dealt away to the Dodgers at the deadline. I believe that someone is Faucher, and his current market price despite being projected for 20+ saves reels rather light, but it's understandable given the fact Faucher's 2024 season ended with a shoulder impingement. The bullpen options in Miami aren't great, as you can see from the table below:

Faucher has four pitches which all grade out as better than average by Stuff+ modeling and has turned a corner since adding a cutter and adjusting his pitch utilization rates. Faucher was 6-for-6 in saves once the Marlins traded Tanner Scott and stuck out 20 against six walks in the time he spent closing before the shoulder injury ended his season. 

Teams continue to share the wealth with saves as we just do not see the same consistency and utilizations by clubs and their closers as we once did. However, Miami really does not have a better option than Faucher at the moment so as long as his shoulder is healthy, he can pick up where left off the 2024 season as the club's primary closer for however many wins they may get this season. 

New York

Brandon Nimmo is a top-100 overall player (ADP 178)

Nimmo is currently the 43rd outfielder off the board, being drafted just after Nick Castellanos and just before Kerry Carpenter. Nimmo is now coming off his third consecutive full season of play and has all but removed the naysayers who reminded everyone how infrequently he stays on the field. He's coming off a year where he stole double-digit bases for the first time, and he did so in a season where he had a career-worst on-base percentage.

Nimmo has been able to get on base since the moment of his promotion in 2016, but his .327 OBP last season was lower even than his .338 mark from his rookie campaign. Nimmo's on-base percentage did not suffer due to walks; his rookie season was the last time Nimmo has failed to walk at least ten percent of the time. Nimmo's on-base fell because his overall batting average plummeted 50 points to .224, its lowest point since he hit .221 in an injury-impacted 2019 season.

Nimmo should see his average get back to its previous norms with even some simple regression, but the lineup in front of him just added Juan Soto, too. Nimmo is slotted to hit cleanup behind Francisco Lindor, Soto and Mark Vientos. Simply put, Nimmo should have a fair amount of traffic on base in front of him and he should both see better pitches and potentially best the career-high in RBI (90) he just set in 2024. I do not see how Nimmo — as long as he continues to play at this volume — cannot put up slightly better counting stats along with a 30-point surge in batting average in 2025. His floor is a lot safer than many of the names 12-15 spots ahead of him in the current ADP rankings. 

Clay Holmes is a top-250 player (ADP 315)

Holmes, who turns 32 in March, is making the transition to the rotation in 2025. Holmes last worked as a starter in 2018 while in Pittsburgh but fared better as a minor-league starter than as a major-league one. Pittsburgh turned him into a reliever in 2019 and eventually dealt him to the Yankees, where Holmes really took off and saved 74 games over the past three seasons while allowing just eight home runs over his final 189.2 innings with the team.

Holmes was able to control homers in an unfriendly environment because his sinker and slider approach is very tough to elevate. Both grade out as well above average offerings by Stuff+, even if his sinker was rather hittable last season. That pitch had a .284 xBA, but the league hit .317 off it, which was 57 points higher than they managed in 2023. Holmes's slider and sweeper were both unhittable last season as the league hit a combined .155 against those two offerings with a 39% whiff rate. 

This, to me, feels like the perfect opportunity for Holmes to introduce a new pitch. He has said he wants to pitch 160 innings this season, and to get there, he will need a little more help. He has been exclusively sinker/slider/sweeper for the past three seasons, but lefties have had more success reaching base because the batting average on the sinker has been anywhere from .207 (in 2023) to .346 (in 2024) in recent seasons. The sinker is a pitch that is mostly going to be put into play and left up to the Luck Dragons. Holmes employs the sinker to move away from lefties while the slider and sweeper dives in on their hands. Lefties hit .095 off the non-sinkers last year. It's clear Holmes needs to add to his repertoire to be a starter, and he knows as much as he told writers last month he has been working on adding his four-seamer and changeup back into his pitch mix. 

This is a good pitcher on a team that is expected to do rather well this season, and he is being drafted just between DJ Herz and Brady Singer?? The conditions are ripe for Holmes to have a successful fantasy season as a starting pitcher but his current ADP is not yet reflecting that. 

Philadelphia

Kyle Schwarber puts up a 50 burger this season (ADP 67)

Schwarber is entering the final year of his current deal with Philadelphia and will turn 32 during camp. His days playing defense are over, and the size of his next contract is going to be solely based on how teams believe his body will age. The current market story we see playing out with Pete Alonso reminds us how teams view larger bodied sluggers who can no longer play the field, so Schwarber needs to make a statement as he heads into the 2025 winter looking for his next deal. Hitting 50 homers is a good way to do that.

Schwarber twice challenged 50 homers in recent seasons, but the reintroduction of the mushball last season brought him down below 40 homers again. Your immediate reaction may be, "how is this bold when his xHR stats in 2022 and 2023 show he could have hit 52 homers?" Well, consider that we have seen just 14 instances of players age 32 or older hit 50 homers in a season, and most of that list comes with known or suspected enhancements:

Schwarber does not have the stadium advantage Judge enjoys at home, and we have to go all the way back to Willie Mays to find another 50-homer season by a player his age if you believe anything from the 90s until the Mitchell Report is suspect. Schwarber has elite power and is expected to once again hit leadoff for Philadelphia, offering him plenty of plate appearances to chase 50 homers in his walk year while putting the pressure on the front office not to let the beloved player leave. He is not going to hit .300 against lefties again, but the batting average is always a yearly adventure with him while the run production is simply money in the bank. 

Jordan Romano is a top-75 pitcher (ADP 266)

Romano is going 106th on the pitcher list right now, even though he's being drafted as the first reliever out of the Philadelphia pen. Romano is coming off a disastrous health season after a solid four-year run as Mr. Dependable in the Toronto bullpen. From 2020-2023, Romano ranked as follows for all qualified relievers:

• Saves: 5th
• ERA: 8th
• K-BB: 29th
• Average: 25th
• WHIP: 28th
• LOB%: 3rd

He was great until he wasn't, as his back and shoulder gave out on him last season and he just never found his groove. Romano signed with the Phillies after throwing a bullpen and sending the results to teams and enters a situation where Rob Thomson used eight different relievers to close out games last season. This feels a lot like last year's situation, which allowed Jeff Hoffman to flourish in the Philadelphia bullpen with great ratios mixed around 10 saves and three wins. Romano does not have the starter repertoire that Hoffman possessed, but Romano is still very dominant when he is fully healthy. 

This ADP will rise as Romano gets to camp and starts showing that his health issues are behind him. If his body cooperates, he has the opportunity to at least slide right into the role Hoffman vacated in free agency if not more. 

Washington

Nathaniel Lowe drives in 100-plus runs (ADP 252)

Lowe is currently 20th at the first base position, going 50 picks later than Paul Goldschmidt and Michael Toglia. I know Lowe is a boring player, but boring also wins championships, and the recent trade from Texas to Washington puts Lowe in a better situation.

Lowe is currently projected to hit cleanup behind the wunderkind trio of CJ Abrams, Dylan Crews, and James Wood, or possibly Luis Garcia Jr. if any of those three struggle early on. Lowe spent a majority of 2024 hitting fifth or sixth in Texas, which didn't allow him to repeat his career-best RBI production from 2023 when he hit out the three hole for nearly the entire season. The cleanup spot should be Lowe's all season, and he's well positioned to challenge upwards of 100 RBI on the year should the talents in front of him play to their full potential this season. 

Lowe is not your typical slugging first baseman since he continues to take an all-fields approach to hitting. This plays well into Washington's strategy of aggressive baserunning, as Lowe would still be able to drive in runs without the home run because of the players in motion on the bases in front of him. RBI is a skill of opportunity, and a player does not need to hit 30-plus homers to drive in 100 runs. Just last season, Salvador Perez drove in 104 runs with 27 homers and a .271 average thanks to the traffic on base in front of him. C.J. Cron pulled off the feat in Colorado with 29 homers in 2022, while Jose Abreu has twice driven in 100-plus runs without hitting more than 30 homers. Lowe's outstanding plate discipline gives him a much higher floor than someone like Toglia or Goldschmidt, especially after what we saw last season from the latter. Simply put. Lowe is a boring bargain at his current market price who is well positioned to set at least one career high in 2025. 

Zach Brzykcy is a top-200 pitcher (No ADP)

Brzykcy has not yet been taken in a 50-round draft and hold, but he should be considered for a late pick given the current state of the Washington bullpen. The Nationals non-tendered Kyle Finnegan and have yet to bring in a replacement or even name one, meaning it's an open audition for the role as things currently stand. Why not consider a guy who has punched out 33.7 percent of the batters he has faced over the course of his collegiate and minor-league career?

Brzykcy blew out his elbow in camp in 2023, but not before striking out 95 batters and allowing 33 hits in 61.1 innings of work the previous season. He missed all of 2023 recoverinrg from that injury and returned in 2024 to strike out 43 batters and allow 15 hits in 35.1 innings of work, including striking out the side as he did in this July appearance:

He will be two full years from his Tommy John surgery once the season begins and should be fully healthy for the first time since his elbow gave out on him. I believe could step into a prominent role in the Nationals' bullpen if the club does indeed stay within the organization to replace Finnegan's role from last season.