Jose Abreu

At the end of last season, Abreu's fantasy managers were left wondering one thing: Where did the power go? Abreu managed a mere four home runs after the All-Star break, slugging .414 in 67 games after the intermission. He hit only one homer in his final 55 games. It wasn't just the power -- Abreu's strikeout and walk rates both went in the wrong direction in the second half. So, was he simply pressing or is this the beginning of the cliff for Abreu? He will be 36 at the start of the 2023 season. He still had outstanding season-long marks in exit velocity and hard-hit rate, per Statcast, despite the late power outage. Father Time is undefeated, but Abreu seems like a strong bounce-back candidate given his glimmering track record of both performance and durability. He finds himself in a perfect situation to put up significant runs and RBI as Houston's new starting first baseman after inking a three-year deal this offseason.

After an MVP season in 2020, Abreu went back to being his normal, still-incredible self in 2021. He hit his 30 homers and contended for the league lead in RBI, finishing second behind Salvador Perez. His batting average was a career-low .261 due in large part to a career-low .293 BABIP. There is no major red flag here, but there are several small issues: a six-year high in his GB%; the second-highest Pull% of his career (i.e. hits into the shift more); his sprint speed and home-to-first times were his slowest in five years. It's tough to project any improvement as he enters his age-35 season. The hope will be that he simply maintains and doesn't fall off a cliff. All of his power metrics stayed constant. His walk and strikeout rates were career bests. It should just be more of the same from this middle-of-the-order power bat, though his batting average may end up closer to .250 than .300.

Abreu has been a very consistent run producer in his time with the South Siders. Outside of his injury-impacted 2018 season, he has always hit for a high average and driven in plenty of runs, and 2020 was no different. Abreu earned American League MVP honors after leading a resurgent White Sox lineup, driving in a run per game with either career-best numbers or pacing toward career best levels nearly across the board. His Statcast measures show elite level rankings in exit velocity, barrels, hard-hit rate and all of the expected stats. There is value in the consistency which Abreu brings to the table, but now that consistency is coming on the heels of a huge year. He will once again anchor a talented Chicago lineup, hit his homers and drive in plenty of runs, but there will zero discount on Abreu in 2021, so plan accordingly. He should be viewed as an offensive foundation to build your team around.

Abreu has been an underrated model of consistency through his first six seasons in the majors, playing at least 145 games and batting at least .280 with 25-plus home runs and 100-plus RBI in all but one of those years. Thanks in part to good health and breakouts from Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada, Abreu established a new career high with 123 RBI, making him the surprise AL leader in the category. Though the 33-year-old Abreu has now reached the point where power-oriented first base/DH types often begin to tail off, his 2019 batting profile doesn't sound any major alarms. His walk (5.2%) and strikeout (21.9%) rates were roughly in line with his career marks, and his hard-hit (40.7%) and barrel (12.8%) rates were actually personal highs. After reupping with the Pale Hose on a three-year deal this offseason, Abreu should be a good bet to once again finish as a top-10 fantasy first baseman.

In mid-August, Abreu appeared primed to make history as just the third player ever to hit 25 homers and drive in 100 runs in five consecutive seasons to begin his big-league career (joining Albert Pujols and Joe DiMaggio). Unfortunately, a lower-abdominal/groin issue required surgery and he only made it back for six games in September before a thigh infection put him right back on the shelf. While he didn't quite reach those lofty thresholds, Abreu still had a solid season by any standard. It wasn't quite what we'd seen from Abreu in the past -- his 114 wRC+ was a career low and he lost close to 40 points of batting average -- but the production was still plenty valuable. The strikeout rate ticked up a little and it's probably unwise to expect Abreu to get back to .300, but he should still be an easy plus in that category and three others. First base as a whole fell off in 2018 and Abreu is a clear top-10 option at the position.

When the White Sox signed Abreu as an international free agent before the 2014 season, their expectation was that they had found a steady middle-of-the-order run producer to anchor their lineup for years to come. Through four seasons, he's lived up to the hype, but his 2017 campaign was his best since his debut, as he eclipsed the .900 OPS mark for the second time in his career. Across the board, he nearly matched his career slash line (.301/.359/.524), with a slight increase in his slugging percentage (.552) thanks to 33 homers and a career-high 43 doubles. In addition to driving in 100 runs for the fourth time in his career, Abreu scored a career-best 95 runs on a team that ranked in the bottom-third of the category. As the rebuilding effort continues on the south side of Chicago, Abreu will remain a cornerstone in the lineup. Another .300, 30-homer, 100-RBI season should be within reach, but he's more likely to score 80 runs than 100.

After three seasons, Abreu's name feels as if it has more value than his actual numbers. His 2014 season was outstanding, and 2015 was pretty good as well, but 2016 feels like a disappointment. Sure, he drove in 100 runs, taking advantage of the opportunities provided to him and hit .293. Yet, in a year where many were hitting 20-plus homers, Abreu hit 25 despite missing only three games all year. His Isolated Power and HR/FB ratio has declined each season he has been in the majors. His GB/FB rate has always been high, but he got away with it when he was hitting one out of every four or five flyballs out of the yard. Last season, that fell to one in every six flyballs which caps his power upside. All the pieces are there, but he has to get more distance on his batted balls to get back to the 30-homer plateau.

With a 30-home run, 101-RBI campaign in 2015, Abreu joined Albert Pujols as the only players to hit at least 30 home runs and accumulate 100 RBI in each of their first two seasons. Of course, Abreu was 27 when he made his major league debut and Pujols was 21, but the feat emphasizes the fact that Abreu landed stateside as an elite hitter in his prime. Abreu was consistent all season long, generally hitting five home runs per month and batting somewhere between .274 and .304. He struggled against lefties in 2015 (.658 OPS), but that split was 1.098 in 2014. So while perhaps a vulnerability was indeed exposed, we can still expect a slight rebound in 2016. Heading into 2016, he profiles as the team’s starting first baseman and No. 3 hitter, and as 2015 proved, he can still put up stats without a stellar supporting cast.

Things could not have gone much better for Abreu in his first MLB season. The Cuban expat entered the year with some questions about whether his swing would hold up to advanced pitching, but Abreu displayed an advanced work ethic that made the transition nearly seamless. He raced to 29 home runs before making the AL All-Star squad, and finished his Rookie of the Year campaign leading the majors with a .581 slugging percentage. He proved himself to be more than just a slugger in the second half, hitting .350 after the break. He swings more than you would like and misses more than he should, so it would not be a surprise to see his average suffer a bit in 2015 if he can not sustain his .356 BABIP. However, his power should continue to rank him in the upper echelon of AL first basemen in 2015, and he should have a spot in the heart of the White Sox's order for several years to come.

Abreu enters 2014 as one of the bigger mysteries of the season. The newest Cuban superstar to make the trek to MLB is a bit different than the other recent players to defect. He is less athletic than Yasiel Puig and Yoenis Cespedes, and he is also quite a bit older than Puig and a year older than Cespedes was upon his arrival two seasons ago. However, Abreu does come to the states with more alleged raw power. He hit 37 home runs in back-to-back Cuban seasons, and he hit .342/.457/.621 over 799 career games in that league. The scouting reports vary in terms of how those numbers will translate to the big leagues, and some question how he will fare against major league breaking balls. He excelled in the 2013 World Baseball Classic with three home runs and a 1.145 OPS in 25 at-bats. The variance on his projections will likely be great, but he should be projected to start at first and bat somewhere in the middle-third of the White Sox's lineup.

Abreu set the single-season mark for home runs at 33 in 2010-11 in the Serie Nationale - the top professional league in Cuba - and was named the league's MVP