Chris Archer

Archer appeared in only six games during the 2021 campaign with Tampa Bay while recovering from thoracic outlet surgery and then suffering a completely different forearm injury before ultimately being shut down for the year due to a hip injury. In his limited action, he surrendered 10 runs while fanning 21 over 19.1 innings. His struggles last year may be written off due to a small sample size and injuries, but his career has been on a downward trend as he's made just 28 starts since 2018. He still strikes out batters (9.8 K/9 last season), but it's been negated by high walk and home run allowed rates the last two years. Archer will try to win a job in the back of Minnesota's rotation, if he's healthy.

Since being dealt to the Pirates in a trade-deadline deal in 2018, Archer has made 33 starts for the club and posted a 4.92 ERA. His time in Pittsburgh came to an unceremonious end as he was sidelined for the entire 2020 season after undergoing thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and then had an $11 million option for next season declined. With Archer's health uncertain entering the new campaign, he's unlikely to undertake a full workload. Just as problematic is determining the quality of work Archer will deliver, as the last time he was on the mound he surrendered 1.9 HR/9 and had a 4.1 BB/9 -- both career-worst marks by far. It's possible Archer is in for a bounce-back if he can return to health; however, it is more likely that he is on the downturn of his career and that the flaws in his game will be further exposed.

Initially, Archer was promising but lucky with low strikeouts. Punchouts spiked but luck reversed, and Archer's ERA exceeded estimators. Optimism then turned to disappointment. Now, add questionable durability to the downward spiral as Archer averaged just 134 innings the past two seasons, tossing a career low 119.2 in 2019. Whiffs remained plentiful at 27.2%, but walks jumped to a career-worst 10.5%. Twenty-five homers allowed ballooned Archer's ERA to 5.02, though a 4.38 SIERA and 4.36 xFIP paint a kinder picture. After missing time in 2018 with an abdominal strain, Archer hit the IL with an inflamed thumb, then 2019 ended prematurely with shoulder soreness. The Pirates picked up his 2020 option, but Archer enters this season with health and performance concerns. At least the opportunity cost will be minimal and PNC Park offers home-run protection for streaming purposes in leagues with ample reserves.

The annual saga of Archer being trade bait ended in him being shipped off to Pittsburgh as the Pirates valued his contract more than any short-term gain. Some thought Archer needed a change of scenery as he had been overexposed to the American League East with nearly 50 percent of his career outings coming against his divisional foes. Archer had grown predictable with fastballs up and sliders down and away while rarely pitching inside. Pittsburgh got him to pitch down in the zone with his two-seamer while using the inner half of the plate more, but the results did not change. He enjoyed a slight bump in strikeout rate going to the NL, but the rest of his metrics were nearly identical to what he did in the American League. Last year was the fourth consecutive season in which Archer's ERA was worse than his FIP, and we should just come to grips with the fact while he can front a real rotation, he can't front a fantasy one.

Even with Archer having surpassed 30 starts in four straight seasons, with great numbers to boot, some in the fantasy community remain concerned that he won't hold up. Is time running out on his arm? It's not a ridiculous question given the extreme slider usage (44.4 percent last season) and the velocity at which he throws the pitch (88.9 percent). He also fizzled late in 2017 with a 7.48 ERA and five homers allowed in September, but Archer was better than his surface stats throughout most of the year, with his xFIP ranging from 2.48 to 3.33 from May through August. The right-hander wasn't as good the third time through the order and that could hurt his chances at wins moving forward if he's given the hook earlier on a more consistent basis, but his core skills are borderline elite (11.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9). There is risk as is inherent with all pitchers; however, the questions about Archer specifically are pure speculation seeing as he's been extremely durable to this point in his career.

Archer's one-of-a-kind 2016 campaign included career-highs in losses (19) and homers surrendered (30), but also his second-highest strikeout total (233) and two starkly contrasting halves. His improvement virtually across the board after the All-Star break certainly gave the Rays and fantasy owners hope that the first three-plus months of the season were an extreme outlier for the 28-year-old, who also was victimized by a lack of run support from an anemic offense in several of his defeats. While the long-ball issues were certainly a concern, they too tailed off in the latter portion of the campaign, with his HR/9 rate dropping from 1.47 to 1.18 after the All-Star break. By season's end, Archer had tallied a double-digit K/9 rate (10.4) for the second consecutive campaign and dropped his ERA to a respectable 4.02. Many of the slightly elevated metrics that the hard-throwing righty finished with were largely composed of remnants of his disastrous first half.

Archer only dropped 0.10 off of his ERA from 2014 and yet it was widely regarded as a breakout season because his strikeout rate surged to a career-best 29 percent (fifth-best among qualified starters) in 212 innings, also a new best. Plus, he spent the majority of the season in the 2.00s before his second-to-last start saw him get beat up for nine earned runs in Toronto, a team he dominated to that point. The key to his success all year was further reliance on his elite slider. He threw it 39 percent of the time, second-most in baseball behind only Tyson Ross (42%). The concern at that volume is potential injury, but Archer has been DL-free for three-plus seasons in the bigs. The elements are all there for more excellence: he misses bats, gets more groundballs than flyballs, handles rights and lefties, and has shown he can take 30-plus turns in a season more than once. These skills have a high floor, too, so even some regression won’t ruin him.

Archer showed some growth from year one to year two. His strikeout rate went up and he showed more confidence in his changeup, but he’s not a finished product. His walk rate rose nearly two percentage points from 2013, but he was able to control some of that damage by doing a better job of keeping the ball in the yard. He went at least seven innings in just nine of his 32 outings as pitch efficiency can be a problem for him as someone who works with fastballs and sliders nearly 95% of the time. The strikeouts and the ratios are good, but one area where he needs to improve is controlling the running game as runners are 31 of 40 in stealing bases when he is on the mound. He has the ceiling to be a No. 2 starter, but he performs more like a No. 3 starter these days.

Archer began the 2013 season with Triple-A Durham before receiving the call to join the Rays' rotation at the start of June. He struggled a bit initially, then turned on the gas and rattled off a fantastic season, finishing with a 9-7 record and 3.22 ERA in 23 starts that included two shutouts. He showed solid control with a 2.66 K/BB ratio, displaying a dazzling fastball that averaged about 95 mph and a hard slider to keep opposing offenses off balance. A finalist for the AL Rookie of the Year Award, Archer established himself in the rotation for 2014 and will be a pitcher to pursue on draft day.

Still a top pitching prospect for the Rays, Archer posted a solid season in 2012 between Triple-A Durham and the majors. At Triple-A, Archer he posted a 3.66 ERA in 25 starts and struck out 139 batters. He is very good at preventing the long ball, only allowing 0.4 HR/9. This is likely due to a solid fastball and hard slider he keeps down in the zone to prevent extra-base hits. Archer made two starts for the Rays in June before returning as a September callup and saw mixed success, but plenty of promise. He will be in the competition for a spot in the major league rotation in spring training and will be a key part in the future.

One of the pieces in the Matt Garza deal, Archer pitched the majority of last season at Double-A Montgomery before getting a cup of coffee with Triple-A Durham. The young hurler features a sinker in the low-90s and a developing curve and slider. The problem with him has been his lack of control as the 130:86 K:BB rate over the two levels indicates. He's likely headed back to Durham to start the season and should get plenty of minor league time to work on his control considering the glut of starting pitching the Rays have in front of him.

Archer pitched well at High-A and Double-A last season, using a low-90s sinker in combination with a solid slider and curve. He struck out more than a batter per inning at the two levels combined and allowed just six homers in 142.1 IP, thanks to that sinker. Archer could stand to improve his command - 39 walks in 70 Double-A innings - but he's still just 22 years old and has some promise as a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Expect him to start in the high minors with a big league debut in late 2011 or 2012, but the Rays have little reason to rush him after acquiring him as part of the Matt Garza deal with the Cubs in January.