Caleb Smith

Smith dazzled out of the gates in 2019 and was one of the biggest fantasy surprises over the first half of the season, recording a 1.01 WHIP and 88:21 K:BB prior to the All-Star break despite missing almost a month in June and early July due to left hip inflammation. However, the 28-year-old faltered over his last 12 starts, recording a 6.25 ERA and 1.52 WHIP while allowing 17 home runs. Smith had an above-average 26 K% in 2019, but also a 9.3 BB% and 1.94 HR/9 (the latter would have ranked as the worst mark among starters had he logged enough innings to qualify). As one would expect, those home-run issues were exacerbated outside of Marlins Park. Smith has middling fastball velocity, struggles to limit hard hits and home runs, and the Marlins are inconsistent in providing run support. The injury history further dings his appeal, though Smith is at least in the conversation as a lottery-ticket SP.

His season was ended prematurely by lat and shoulder injuries which required surgery, but during his time on the field Smith flashed an impressive skill set. In 77.1 innings with the big-league team, he posted a 27.0% strikeout rate. Despite below-average fastball velocity, Smith was highly successful in challenging hitters with the fastball, as he ranked among the league leaders on swings and misses in the strike zone with the four-seamer. He was also able to get swings out of the zone with the slider later in counts, but further development of the changeup will be necessary if Smith is to make it as a starter long term. The lefty is an extreme flyball pitcher (50.8 FB%, 28.4 GB%), which makes him a nice fit in Marlins Park but dicey away from home (5.18 ERA on the road last year). Health provided, Smith should be starting every fifth day for Miami, and there is some upside here, but it's best to stream him carefully early on.

Smith is a name worth knowing primarily because he's a member of the Marlins' organization. The 26-year-old lefty has just 18.2 major-league innings to his name, in which he's posted a 7.71 ERA. But for a Marlins team which lacks depth in the starting rotation (or really anywhere on the team), Smith could easily end up making double-digit starts. He's been a solid performer in his minor-league career, recording a 3.19 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in five seasons. That's not impressive enough for him to project as a real weapon in 2018, but it's enough to make him relevant in NL-only leagues. With Wei-Yin Chen and Dan Straily both injured to start the season, a rotation spot has opened up for Smith.