Jesse Winker

Winker finally eclipsed the 500 plate appearance plateau in 2022, but he did so playing through back and leg troubles which impacted his overall numbers. Winker had reportedly disenfrachised some teammates throughout the process of the season with some of his actions with how he approached the game. It came as no surprise when Seattle sent him to Milwaukee for Kolten Wong in November. Winker has the opportunity for a fresh start in Milwaukee as he looks to re-establish his fantasy value as a disciplined hitter who limits self-inflicted damage at the plate. His Hard Hit Rate plummeted last year from the top 20th percentile in previous seasons to the bottom 20th percentile as he played through the aforementioned injuries, so the conditions are favorable for him to once again pursue a 20+ homer season. Milwaukee can, and should, use him as the regular DH to both keep him healthy and keep his terrible defensive abilities off the field as much as possible.

When healthy, Winker enjoyed a breakout 2021 campaign, hitting .305/.394/.556 with 24 homers with 77 runs and 71 RBI. Alas, "when healthy" remains a critical phrase. Winker was limited to 110 games, and missed all but two of the last 46 games with an intercostal strain. It's not a coincidence the Reds went 21-25 over that stretch, despite a very friendly schedule over those last two months. Unfortunately, health issues are a feature with Winker, as he's never played more than 113 games in a season. When Winker is in the game he has two noteworthy flaws - a lack of speed and trouble hitting lefties. Even last year when he hit over .300, Winker still hit just .176/.288/.284 against southpaws, and he'll now lose the advantage of hitting at Great American Ball Park for half the year after being traded to the Mariners, and he'll instead be at the more pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. One of these years Winker will defy the odds and play a full season, but do you feel confident that 2022 will be that year?

There is one signifcant difference between Winker's previous productive numbers and his 2020 season - he started producing against left-handers this time, too. As true with any other 2020 line, small sample caveats apply, but Winker hit .290/.421/.548 against southpaws in 38 plate appearances. The Reds were forced to give him the chance, following Nick Senzel's multiple absences and the breakdown of other right-handed bats in the lineup. If the overall line from Winker encourages the Reds to play him more frequently against lefties, it gives him a chance to provide useful fantasy counting stats and not just good rate stats. Before drafting Winker, make sure you are aware of your league's position requirements - he played 16 games in the outfield and 37 at DH. That's good enough for OF-eligibility in the NFBC, but in other traditional formats that require 20 games per position, he will be a UT-only player.

Winker answered some nagging worries in 2019 but raised others with his campaign. A multi-year shoulder injury sapped his power in the minors and in his first real major-league stint in 2018. After getting it fixed in the offseason, he offered more power in 2019, hitting 16 homers in 338 at-bats before a cervical strain ended his season in August. But that extra power can be somewhat attributed to the lively ball, as many of his homers were to the opposite field and his GB% actually increased to 49.3%. It also came at the cost of his average (.269) and declining BB% (9.9%, compared to 14.7% in 2018). Winker almost never faces lefties and did little with those plate appearances, with no extra-base hits in 50 plate appearances. The nearly-strict platoon limits his upside in standard mixed leagues, as does his lack of stolen bases.

Winker was a bright spot for the Reds in 2018 before a shoulder injury and subsequent surgery curtailed his season in July. It took awhile for him to get regular playing time, and he wasn't great early on, but really hit his stride (along with a number of opposing pitchers' offerings) in the last two months, before he got hurt. He walked more than he struck out in his age-24 season. It is unclear how much of an outlier his .231 ISO in 2017 will end up being, but Winker has long played through shoulder woes, so his underwhelming power figures in the upper levels of the minors do not tell the whole story. While the Reds acquired Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp in an offseason trade, Winker seems like the least likely incumbent outfielder to lose out on significant playing time, given his age and pedigree. Between his on-base skills and likely position in the order, Winker should be a good source of cheap counting stats from a third or fourth outfielder slot.

It was easy to project a power breakout for Winker. He played through a wrist injury in 2016, was repeating Triple-A and his size and approach suggested he could unlock more thump. Then he hit just two home runs in 85 games in the International League. Just when the last passenger jumped off the "Winker could hit for power" bandwagon, he blasted seven bombs after an August 1 callup. In his last 105 MLB at-bats, he hit as many home runs as he did in his previous 708 professional at-bats. Power is impossible to figure out these days. It's easy, however, to see that Winker has a ridiculously advanced approach and hit tool for a player his age, at least against righties. He has not shown an ability to do damage against lefties in the upper levels, and the Reds have two readymade platoon options in Adam Duvall and Phillip Ervin. Winker may wrangle an everyday job at some point, but barring a trade, he could be sharing right field duty to start the year.

Although Winker's prospect luster has faded a bit, his advanced approach gives him a relatively high floor, and he's now knocking at the door for the rebuilding Reds. Scott Schebler represents the only real obstacle to playing time in right field. Winker was promoted to Triple-A Louisville in 2016 and finished seventh in the International League with a .397 OBP, walking as many times as he struck out in 448 plate appearances. Now the bad news. Winker totaled just three homers with Louisville as a wrist injury hindered his power stroke, and he hit .260 with a .346 SLG against left-handed pitching. While he was never much of a runner, Winker didn't even attempt a stolen base all year. The International League is tough on power and Winker should see the power tick up some with improved health and especially when he gets to Great American Ball Park, but it will need to tick up considerably for him to maintain 2017 relevance outside of NL-only leagues.

In a way, Winker is a bit of a poor man's Joey Votto - his strongest offensive skill is his ability to get on-base, as he's never had a walk rate below 13 percent in his professional career. Going along with that, there's a concern that Winker isn't hitting for enough power yet, slugging just .433 last year at Double-A Pensacola. He really struggled over the first half of the season, but a strong finish (he hit .344/.457/.560 from August 1 to the end of the season) salvaged his overall numbers. The Reds will probably wait until June or July to call him up due to service time considerations, but Winker will be in Cincinnati at some point in 2016, barring injury.

The Reds' 2012 draft is looking better each year. Not only did first-round pick Nick Travieso take a big step in 2014, so did Winker before a wrist injury at Double-A derailed his season. But he rallied in the Arizona Fall League to win the batting title there, hitting .338/.440/.559. The big question for the Reds is how soon they believe Winker will be ready for the big leagues. They had a pretty big hole in left field last season, and had a really hard time getting good on-base guys. Winker managed only 21 games at Double-A Pensacola last year before getting hurt, so chances are he could begin 2015 at that level but then get promoted aggressively if he starts off well.

The Reds' farm system lacks high-impact offensive players, but Winker demonstrated quite a bit of promise at Low-A Dayton in 2013, showing both power (his 16 homers were in the league's top-10 despite Dayton being a tough park to hit in) and patience (13% walk rate, 82% contact rate). Don't be surprised if the 2012 first-round supplemental pick out of high school in Florida takes a big leap in High-A in 2014.