Derek Holland

Left for the scrap heap, Holland made changes to revive his game. The southpaw bolstered his K/9 by nearly two strikeouts (a new career best) and lowered his walk rate nearly 1.5 per nine. His ERA improvement of 2.63 runs was the second-greatest decrease in the majors. Holland adjusted his mound positioning, which boosted his sinker and improved his swinging-strike rate by three percentage points (10.1%). With sinker-leaning pitchers that have a questionable history of strikeouts, like Holland, expecting a dip is safe, and that 3.57 ERA probably represents his peak with this skill set. Holland didn't show big splits, but pitching home assignments at a pitcher-friendly den like AT&T Park (now Oracle Park) helped and his return to the Giants on a one-year deal bodes well for his chances of repeating some of his 2018 success.

The Giants inked Holland to a minor-league deal during the offseason to bring him in as part of a competition for a place in the back of their rotation, with the possibility of holding onto him as a long reliever if he didn't crack the rotation. While he no longer sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, Holland has been working on a changeup to get hitters to swing-and-miss, and to makes his fastball more effective. If he ends up making starts for the Giants at some point in 2018, Holland's appear to fantasy owners will likely be limited to spot starts in favorable home matchups.

Injuries were once again a key part of the plot with Holland's season in 2016, as he was limited to 22 games -- 20 starts -- during his final year with the Rangers. While he chipped away at his extremely high home-run rate from the previous season, Holland's flyball tendencies remained problematic as he's unable to replicate the bat-missing ability he showed at the outset of his time in Texas. The 107.1 innings that Holland amassed in 2016 represented his highest total since 2013, but he's now posted back-to-back seasons with an ERA that has flirted with the 5.00 mark. Seeking a veteran presence during their rebuilding effort, the White Sox inked Holland to a low-risk one-year deal during the offseason, and health permitting, he'll likely open the season as one of the team's rotation members. He's a big restoration projection for pitching coach Don Cooper, but there are younger arms to consider in the endgame while panning for value.

We are now two years removed from Holland's big season and he has logged just 96 innings in that time. Injuries, a fluke offseason knee injury in 2014 and a long-term shoulder issue (which cropped up nine pitches into his 2015 debut) have conspired to hold him back. He has still shown flashes of his previous upside, but it's just not enough work to feel confident about investing in him as anything more than a late-round flier. His strikeout rate has dipped in each of the last two seasons, but some of that has to be the rust of long layoffs and the fact that both samples are just really small. Even the most optimistic expectation for Holland would have to account for the fact that his 2013 breakout was an outlier compared to his previous work (4.71 ERA in 569 IP prior to 2013). Fortunately for those still bullish on him, the price has come down with the lost innings over the past two seasons.

Holland was the locomotive on the Rangers Injury Train last year, falling victim to a knee injury at home shortly after the New Year. He needed microfracture surgery to repair the knee and missed almost the entire season as a result. By the way, this is exhibit 4,180,997 of why you don’t take the initial timetable as anything but a guess that is very unlikely to come true. Early reports had Holland returning by midseason and many drafted him with that expectation. He debuted on September 2, and Holland impressed in his 37 innings, but it’s hard to draw much from the sample. His strikeout rate dipped to a career-low, but that is likely tied to the small sample size as his stuff looked as crisp as ever even though his velocity was down a tick. Look for Holland to pick up where his big 2013 left off and continue establishing himself as one of the better youngish lefties in the game. Invest.

Holland finally made good on his 2011 second-half breakout, posting the best season of his young career despite finishing with just 10 wins on the year. His control peripherals continue to trend upward, and he was able to cut back on the homers allowed from 2012, so there's room for further growth. Holland parlayed a career-high 9.9 percent swinging-strike rate into an 8.0 K/9, with a big part of those gains coming from a more effective slider. Unfortunately, an accident at his home in January resulted in knee surgery, and Holland is expected to miss the first half of the season.

Holland failed to build on 2011's second-half breakout (9-1, 1.21 WHIP, 3.06 ERA, 80 strikeouts in 88.1 innings), though the regression was spear-headed by an ugly 32 homers allowed in 175.1 innings. His control improved, and his K/9 remains very strong so there are some encouraging signs hidden amongst the rubble if you can get past the long ball issues. He'll be well discounted in your auctions this spring, and makes for a nice "post-hype sleeper" candidate as a result.

Holland was one of the league's elite starters after the All-Star break, posting a 9-1 record with a 1.211 WHIP, 3.06 ERA and 80 strikeouts in 88.1 innings. His pre-break numbers were a continuation of his career up to that point, mixing in solid starts with poor ones but showing flashes of potential. His strikeout potential gives reason to think he'll build upon last year's success, but don't be surprised if his impressive 8.1 shutout innings against the Cardinals in Game 4 of the World Series lead to an uptick in his price on draft day.

Holland fell behind in the competition to earn a rotation spot in the spring with a knee injury early in camp, but emerged for a few starts in May before hitting the DL with minor shoulder soreness and a recurrence of his knee injury. He pitched well once healthy, including a nice run in September (27 innings, 26 hits, 27:11 K:BB and a 3.67 ERA in six appearances). Cliff Lee's departure to Philly via free agency gives Holland an opportunity to earn a spot in the rotation this spring and his time on the DL last season should keep the draft day price low.

Holland made just one appearance at Triple-A Oklahoma City before being promoted to the majors, where he remained for the rest of the season. The results were pretty ugly, not surprising given that he essentially made the jump straight from High-A with just four appearances at Double-A prior to last season. He allowed far too many hits (160 in 138.1 innings) and homers (26) to be effective for any prolonged stretch, and he could benefit from spending at least half a season at Triple-A Oklahoma City to refine his offspeed pitches and get some confidence back. Unfortunately, that's not likely in team's plans for Holland, so another season of struggles could await.

Holland reached Double-A, making four starts, in a season that quietly placed him among the better pitching prospects in baseball. His composite line (150.2 innings. 111 hits, 40 walks, 157 K) shows plenty of promise and late-season reports of a consistent mid-90's fastball should help him as he advances. He needs to do a better job of keeping the ball on the ground, but he pairs with Neftali Feliz to give Texas one of the better 1-2 punches in the minors.