Garrett Richards

The Padres are hoping to get out of Richards what the Rays got out of Nathan Eovaldi. Both pitchers were signed to two-year deals knowing the first year would be a rehab year. Richards actually came back and pitched in three starts, and struggled as one would expect a pitcher to do 14 months removed from Tommy John surgery. Eovaldi didn't pitch in his rehab year, but pitched well enough in the final year of his deal to earn a big payday. Richards is hoping to do the same despite not having pitched more than 80 innings in a season since 2015. The pitcher Richards was before all of the injuries would be ideal in this new environment, as he was very tough to elevate and still generated strikeouts. The strikeouts have been there the past two seasons, but so have the walks and the home runs, which is not the version the Padres nor fantasy owners want. The prototypical wild card; he could be good or an early cut.

Richards' situation makes for a strong case against going the rest-and-rehab route in lieu of surgery. He was diagnosed with a torn UCL in his elbow in 2016, and rather than have him go under the knife, the Angels made the decision to try an alternative treatment plan of plasma and stem-cell injections. Nerve irritation in his biceps cost Richards most of 2017, and after more elbow trouble last season, the team finally caved and sent Richards for Tommy John surgery in late July. Given the timing of the procedure, Richards is not expected to make it back until 2020. In his 76.1 innings with the Angels in 2018, he continued to show good fastball velocity, but the pitch was straight most of the time -- FanGraphs attributed a negative value to the offering. There is still a shred of dynasty-league appeal here, but Richards will be close to 32 years old by the time he's healthy for the Padres, and it's no lock that his stuff will be the same post-surgery.

It's been a long two years, but the signs are there for Richards to get his career back on track, provided he escapes injury for the first time since 2015. In 2016, Richards was diagnosed with a torn UCL, which he rehabbed with plasma and stem-cell injections in lieu of Tommy John surgery. Last season, Richards had to leave his initial start due to nerve irritation in his biceps and remained sidelined until early September. After he returned, Richards impressed, finishing his abbreviated campaign with a 2.28 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 27.2 innings, fanning 27. More encouraging than the small-sample success was Richards was sitting at 96 mph, where he was a couple years ago when he was tabbed as an emerging ace. With just 62.1 frames under his belt since 2015, Richards will have his innings monitored, which is one reason the Halos are considering using a six-man rotation. Where to draft Richards is up to your own weighing of risk versus reward. His upside is an SP3 in mixed formats.

Following an off year, Richards returned to his ace-caliber form in 2016. He came out of the gate hot, posting an excellent 2.34 ERA and a 0.5 HR/9 while averaging nearly a strikeout per inning over his first six starts. Things went south as he left his first May start due to what ultimately was diagnosed as a torn UCL. Richards opted to avoid Tommy John surgery through the use of plasma and stem-cell injections. The 28-year-old even got back to throwing against live hitters in late September and was clocked at 95 mph during his final instructional league outing, which seems to show that he's back at full strength. His control still wasn't outstanding by any stroke of the imagination (3.89 BB/9), but if he can stay healthy while fanning batters at a high clip and keeping the ball in the park, Richards could climb into the league's elite starting pitching echelon. Understandably, the Angels plan to closely monitor his workload in 2017.

Richards was in the mix for the AL Cy Young in 2014 before a season-ending knee injury, but he posted a pedestrian 7.6 K/9 rate in 2015 along with a 3.3 BB/9 rate, leading to a 3.65 ERA in 207.1 innings following his return in late April. In attempting to discover what led to the decline in effectiveness, we can see that Richards' HR/FB rate tripled (4.0 percent to 12.0 percent), while his fastball and slider weren't nearly as effective according to runs above average. Despite this, his swinging strike percentage and first strike percentage both showed a slight increase, which could mean the strikeouts will head back up in 2016. Richards was unquestionably a disappointment for those who paid the price following the breakout, but could return to a value pickup in the middle rounds, as he will head into 2016 completely healthy.

Richards was well on his way to completing the breakout campaign owners were hoping for before a rather innocuous looking cover play at first base in a game against the Red Sox in August led to a torn patellar tendon for the 26-year-old, sidelining him for the rest of the season. Prior to the injury, Richards had tallied a 2.61 ERA with 164 strikeouts in 168.2 innings. There was no dramatic change in Richards' pitch profile last season, but the hard-throwing righty managed to gain velocity on his fastball, which was clocked at an average of 96.3 mph. He also was stingy with the home run ball, allowing just five homers all of last season. The Angels are hopeful that Richards will be ready for spring training after initially giving him a six-to-nine month timetable for his return, but there may be a question of whether he can repeat his 2014 performance after the injury.

Richards had something of an eventful 2013, as he began the year as a long reliever, was moved to the starting rotation twice, and even picked up a save on the season. Though he was initially replaced by Jerome Williams in the rotation after he struggled in late April and early May, Richards received his second chance after Joe Blanton was removed from the rotation. Richards flourished the second time around, pitching to an ERA of 3.59 after the All-Star break, with a 2.8 BB/9 during that time. Though his composite numbers are not very impressive, Richards' performance down the stretch compelled general manager Jerry Dipoto to bestow upon him a rotation spot in 2014 before the end of last season, but in order to be more than a true fourth or fifth starter, the hard-throwing 25-year-old will have to get back to the strikeout numbers he posted in the lower levels of the Angels' minor league system.

Richards started nine games for the Angels last season and made 21 appearances out of the bullpen, compiling a 4.69 ERA and 47:34 K:BB over 71 innings. He was considered to be the best pitching prospect in the organization at one point, but it may be time to re-evaluate that given his low strikeout rates in the major leagues and upper levels of the minors. Despite the worrisome numbers, one also has to consider how quickly Richards has been rushed through the Angels' system, tossing just 143 innings at Double-A and 77 innings at Triple-A. Richards is likely to begin the season at Triple-A after the Angels acquired several veteran starters, but he should be the first pitcher called up if there's an opening.

A big 2011 season established Richards as the Angels' top pitching prospect. Richards went 12-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 103:40 K:BB ratio in 22 games, including 21 starts, with Double-A Arkansas. Richards will likely open 2012 with Triple-A Salt Lake. He will be challenged in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but with four pitches in his arsenal, expect him to be up to the task.

Richards followed up a strong rookie season by striking out 149 batters and walking just 43 in 143 minor league innings last season. Richards is still a few years away from the big leagues, but he has top-of-the-rotation stuff with a four-pitch repertoire that includes a mid-90s fastball, two breaking pitches and a developing changeup. He may be the Angels' top pitching prospect heading into the 2011 season.