Nico Hoerner

27-Year-Old Second Baseman2B

Chicago Cubs

Out

Injury Elbow

Est. Return 3/27/2025

2024 Stats

AVG

.273

RBI

2025 Projections

AVG

RBI

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Hoerner is one of the most consistent players in the league, with his wRC+ ranging between 103 and 108 over the last four seasons. He's better for fantasy teams since steals aren't captured by wRC+ and Hoerner has averaged 31 steals over the last three seasons. Hoerner's game is putting the ball in play 90 percent of the time, mostly line drives and grounders. His career hard hit rate is 31.6 percent, with last season's 27.7 percent being a career worst, but he fanned at his lowest rate ever. This is a risky profile, dependent on batted ball fortune. Hoerner had surgery on his right flexor tendon in October, but he's expected to be ready for opening day. Players with batting average and steals as chief assets grade well with a formulaic ranking method but are often faded by those using a more subjective approach. He can be a fantasy asset, but it takes the right team build. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Overall Rank

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'1"

Weight 200

DOB 5/13/1997

Born Oakland, CA

College Stanford

Drafted 1st Rd 2018 CHC

Undergoes flexor tendon surgery

2BChicago Cubs

Elbow

October 21, 2024

Hoerner underwent surgery Oct. 11 to repair his right flexor tendon, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.

ANALYSIS
It's not clear when Hoerner suffered the injury, nor did the Cubs offer a timetable for his recovery. The second baseman should be ready to roll come Opening Day, although it's possible he'll be eased into things in spring training. Hoerner slashed .273/.335/.373 with seven home runs and 31 stolen bases over 151 games for the Cubs in 2024.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+8%

OPS vs LHP

2024

+17%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+5%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+3%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.769	450	69	5	46	28	.309	.349	.420
Since 2022vs Right	.709	1396	175	21	125	66	.269	.333	.376
2024vs Left	.799	138	25	2	12	7	.328	.377	.422
2024vs Right	.683	503	61	5	36	24	.258	.324	.359
2023vs Left	.756	180	33	1	18	15	.306	.344	.412
2023vs Right	.719	508	65	8	50	28	.274	.347	.372
2022vs Left	.754	132	11	2	16	6	.294	.326	.429
2022vs Right	.730	385	49	8	39	14	.276	.327	.403
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+2%

OPS at Home

2024

+21%

OPS on Road

2023

+11%

OPS at Home

2022

+19%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.732	923	127	11	88	43	.288	.344	.389
Since 2022Away	.716	923	117	15	83	51	.270	.330	.385
2024Home	.640	312	37	1	16	10	.260	.311	.329
2024Away	.775	329	49	6	32	21	.287	.359	.416
2023Home	.765	356	59	6	40	21	.291	.363	.402
2023Away	.691	332	39	3	28	22	.274	.328	.363
2022Home	.800	255	31	4	32	12	.318	.357	.444
2022Away	.674	262	29	6	23	8	.244	.298	.376
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Stat Review

How does Nico Hoerner compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.67

BB Rate

6.9%

K Rate

10.3%

BABIP

.297

ISO

.100

AVG

.273

OBP

.335

SLG

.373

OPS

.708

wOBA

.316

Exit Velocity

85.7 mph

Hard Hit Rate

20.4%

Barrels/PA

0.9%

Expected BA

.280

Expected SLG

.353

Sprint Speed

24.1 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

44.3%

Line Drive %

24.1%

Fly Ball %

31.6%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Nico Hoerner Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

Hoerner took hold of a starting job for the Cubs in 2022 and produced a .281/.327/.410 slash line with 10 homers, 20 steals, 55 RBI and 60 runs in 135 games, and he followed up with similar production last season. He moved from shortstop to second base in 2023 following the signing of Dansby Swanson and had nine long balls, 43 steals, 98 runs and 68 RBI with a .729 OPS across 150 contests. Those figures resulted in a 102 wRC+, and he was sixth in the league in stolen bases while being caught seven times. He hit 46.9 percent of his balls on the ground and didn't consistently make solid contact with a 1.7 percent barrel rate and 33.0 percent hard-hit rate, both of which rank near the bottom for qualified hitters. However, none of those figures are significantly different from the previous year, which indicates his production over the past two seasons is sustainable. Hoerner should provide a strong average with plenty of runs and stolen bases for fantasy managers again in 2024 with his high-contact, low-power approach, though he's unlikely to be a significant contributor in other categories.

Hoerner's role to begin 2022 was murky after Chicago added Andrelton Simmons in March, but the veteran shortstop battled injuries and played in only 35 games before he was cut loose in August. Hoerner worked as the Cubs' primary shortstop and was a plus defender, and he finished the year with a .281/.327/.410 slash line, 10 home runs, 55 RBI and 20 stolen bases. Entering the year, he had only three homers and eight stolen in 112 career games, so the improvements in those areas are a significant development for his fantasy appeal. Hoerner should have a starting spot in the middle infield to open 2023, regardless of whether or not the Cubs bring in a shortstop via free agency.

Hoerner is the other half of the powerless duo which was expected make up the bottom two spots of the Cubs' batting order in 2022. Hoerner does not have the elite bat-to-ball skills that Nick Madrigal has, but he hit .304 in college and .294 in the minors while maintaining a .272 average at the major-league level. He has 90th percentile sprint speed yet has done little running at the big-league level, stealing eight bases in 13 attempts. He appeared set to start in the middle infield alongside Madrigal in 2022, but Chicago opted to bring in veteran shortstop Andrelton Simmons. Hoerner's outlook is now clouded by the addition, as there is now no clear path to an everyday role if everyone remains healthy.

Hoerner acquitted himself quite well in 2019, as his .282/.305/.436 line in 20 games at the MLB level was quite impressive for someone who played in just 89 career minor-league games. He wasn't able to carry that level of success into his second season, however, looking overmatched en route to a .222/.312/.259 slash line with zero homers. He'll still be 23 on Opening Day and was only just drafted in 2018, so it's not as if we should give up on him at this stage. He'll also seemingly get the playing time necessary to keep developing, with the Cubs selling off pieces. There are some red flags, however, particularly pertaining to the notion of fantasy upside. His contact simply isn't nearly good enough, as his career 1.3% barrel rate and 2.2 degree launch angle demonstrate. His defensive versatility and youth will get him playing time, while his contact skill and modest speed are the top selling points in fantasy.

Hoerner would have debuted in 2020 under normal circumstances, but he was the best option at shortstop in September when Javier Baez and Addison Russell got hurt, so he got the emergency callup with the Cubs fighting for a playoff spot. Including a 2018 stint in the Arizona Fall League, Hoerner only played 110 games before reaching the majors, yet he hit .282 with a 13.4 K% and didn't look overmatched at all. He could end up with a plus hit tool, which will be important, as he doesn't have any other plus tools. Hoerner could develop 20-homer power and may chip in 8-10 steals, but the main selling point is that he could be a good enough hitter to bat second in a good lineup. His walk rate should improve as he gets more reps. Baez isn't going anywhere, but Hoerner could be his long-term double-play partner. In the short term, he may head to Triple-A for a couple months before joining the MLB roster for good.

Rarely does a hitter get sent to the Arizona Fall League the year he was drafted. Even rarer is the prospect who gets that assignment and performs as one of the league's best hitters. Hoerner finished his season by hitting .337/.362/.506 in 89 AFL at-bats, but let's go back at the beginning. The Cubs selected the Stanford shortstop with the No. 24 pick in the draft -- potentially this regime's best pick since Kris Bryant in 2013. Hoerner may not stick at shortstop, but unlike recent first-round picks Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ, making consistent contact shouldn't be a problem. Hoerner produced with a wood bat in the Northwoods and Cap Cod leagues, and that success carried over across brief stops at three levels before an elbow injury ended his regular season, prompting the AFL assignment. If he maxes out, Hoerner will be a plus hitter with plus speed and 15-homer pop. He should be one of the first 2018 draftees to reach the majors.

More Fantasy News

Finishes season with stolen base

2BChicago Cubs

September 29, 2024

Hoerner went 1-for-5 with a stolen base in Sunday's 3-0 loss to the Reds in 10 innings.