Farm Futures: First-Year Player Draft Blueprint

This is the fifth-annual First-Year Player Draft Blueprint for dynasty leagues. The top 400 prospect rankings will be fully updated Wednesday, Jan. 15, and the top 100 FYPD rankings with tiers, ETA, blurbs, etc... were updated earlier this week. I've also written outlooks for most of the top guys (and almost 200 total prospects with dozens more outlooks coming), so you can check those out on their player pages or ask me in the comments if you want further detail on a prospect.

First-year player drafts are a crucial opportunity for you to add premium talent to your dynasty farm systems. You can always add pop-up prospects in season, but this is your only chance to add the best prospects from each class. It's also an opportunity to add big-league ready talent from Asia and sometimes Cuba if you're a contending team. I usually gravitate toward high-upside draftees, but you should approach your FYPD with a strategy that works best for your tendencies and your specific dynasty roster. This article is just a tool for you to make sure you're looking at the right prospects in the right range of your FYPD.

Make sure to sync your league using RotoWire's My Teams feature before and during your FYPD. That way you can reference the top 400 prospect rankings to see who the best players available are, as non-FYPD prospects become strong options midway through most FYPDs.

1

1. Roki Sasaki, RHP, Free Agent, 2025 ETA, TBD bonus

This decision is pretty simple: Either you take Sasaki or you trade the pick to the highest bidder. 

I'm currently in a start-up dynasty slow auction, which has been loads of fun, and I'll share the results when it's over. But I can share this: Sasaki went for more money than Oneil Cruz, William Contreras and Roman Anthony (BOS), among others, so if you think it's too risky to take Sasaki, you should be able to cash out that pick for a very impactful win-now piece or an elite close-to-the-majors hitting prospect -- Sebastian Walcott (TEX), Anthony, Jasson Dominguez (NYY), Kristian Campbell (BOS), Matt Shaw (CHC) are the prospects I've got in the same tier as Sasaki.

I did not write Sasaki's outlook, but a realistic 2025 statistical comp for Sasaki is Hunter Brown, assuming good health, but there's upside for an even more impactful starter than that if Sasaki can recapture his 2023 form. Sasaki's combination of age and fastball velocity make him a notable Tommy John surgery candidate, and for my money, he's riskier from a health standpoint than hard throwers like Paul Skenes and Logan Gilbert, who have already shown they can hold up under a full season of pitching in the major leagues. However, in dynasty leagues, that doesn't make Sasaki a boom or bust pick, because even if he needs TJS this spring, you'll get that procedure out of the way and potentially have a nice 5-6 year run of excellence once he's fully recovered. 

Options: Take Sasaki, or trade the pick

Top-400 Range: 1-6

2-3

2. Nick Kurtz, 1B/DH, ATH, 2025 ETA, $7M bonus

3. Travis Bazzana, 2B, CLE, 2026 ETA, $8.95M bonus

This is such an underwhelming FYPD class at the top for me once we get past Sasaki. I worry about Kurtz's lower body handling a 162-game season and I worry about Bazzana's ultimate ceiling -- there's a reason he's the first second baseman to ever go 1-1 in the draft -- but I recognize that they're the logical picks here. Kurtz could be a top-five fantasy first baseman in his prime, and he could get to the majors as early as this summer. Bazzana should be a top-10 second baseman during his prime, but it's possible he's never a top-100 fantasy pick, and I would bet against him ever being a first or second round pick. Right now there are five second baseman with top-100 NFBC ADPs (Ketel Marte, Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, Marcus Semien, Jordan Westburg) and only one (Marte) going in the top 50 on average. Second base is also the deepest position right now in fantasy, so adding a good but non-elite option there like Bazzana just isn't that exciting, especially when I like another second base prospect, Luke Keaschall (MIN), even more than Bazzana and I could surely trade Bazzana for Keaschall+ in most leagues due to the gap in name value/pedigree.

I've had multiple subscribers say that Leodalis De Vries (SD) or Zyhir Hope (LAD) or Jesus Made (MIL) are available in their FYPDs, and those three prospects (in that order) all comfortably slot higher than Kurtz or Bazzana on the updated top 400, so you can feel comfortable plucking from outside this FYPD class as early as the No. 2 pick in that case.

I usually put "take Player X if they fall" as an option, but I think Sasaki falling past No. 1 will be such a rare occurrence in dynasty leagues that it's not even worth planning around.

Options: Take a non-FYPD prospect (De Vries/Hope/Made) if applicable; take Kurtz or Bazzana; trade down or out

Top-400 Range: 12-26

4-15

4. Jac Caglianone, 1B, KC, 2026 ETA, $7.5M bonus

5. Cam Smith, 3B, HOU, 2026 ETA, $5.07M bonus

6. JJ Wetherholt, 2B/SS, STL, 2026 ETA, $6.9M bonus

7. Christian Moore, 2B, LAA, 2025 ETA, $5M bonus

8. Hagen Smith, LHP, CHW, 2026 ETA, $8M bonus

9. Chase Burns, RHP, CIN, 2026 ETA, $9.25M bonus

10. Braden Montgomery, RF, CHW, 2026 ETA, $5M bonus

11. Konnor Griffin, SS/CF, PIT, 2028 ETA, $6.53M bonus

12. Bryce Rainer, SS, DET, 2028 ETA, $5.8M bonus

13. Carson Benge, CF/RF, NYM, 2026 ETA, $4M bonus

These players all come with some risk, but the way I feel about this tier is that you can at least rest easy knowing you made a sound pick of a prospect who should hold their dynasty value for a while and won't look like a total bust early in 2025. 

We already know Smith and Moore have performed against upper-level pitching, while Caglianone had a dominant run over the final couple weeks of Arizona Fall League play, and Wetherholt's whole scouting report screams high-floor. Smith and Burns are plenty risky, but you already know that and accept it when you're taking a hard-throwing pitching prospect this high in an FYPD. I think Benge is pretty safe based on his track record of hitting, and there's a bit of upside now that he's no longer a two-way player. Montgomery's hit tool came with the most questions among the college hitters in this tier, but he has a very real chance to be a 30-homer right fielder. Griffin's hit tool is riskier than Rainer's, but Griffin's got a notably higher ceiling, as he could steal 30-plus bases, while Rainer's unlikely to steal more than 10-15 bases, even early in his MLB career. 

I want to focus on Caglianone briefly here, since he's my pick in this range and I almost put him in the Kurtz/Bazzana tier. I don't believe Caglianone is a safe long-term prospect. He hasn't proven much with regards to the quality of his hit tool against good pitching, although he hasn't looked as bad as Charlie Condon (COL) against pro pitching. However, of all the college position players in this class, including Kurtz and Bazzana, I think Caglianone has the highest realistic ceiling. If it all works out, he'll be a slugging first baseman in the Matt Olson/Pete Alonso mold, where 50-home run seasons are legitimately in play. Additionally, first base is the shallowest position other than catcher in dynasty, and it's really difficult to acquire a true building block there. The idea of getting a decade's worth of top-10 fantasy first baseman play is more appealing to me than getting the same thing at second base, shortstop, third base or outfield. So taking Caglianone with the No. 4 pick in your FYPD is risky, but I think it's a calculated gamble worth taking.

This grouping of players, plus any none FYPD prospects in my updated top 75, should be available through at least the first 15 picks of your FYPD. I wouldn't look to trade down from this tier, as things only get riskier and the upside gets fainter. 

Options: Take Kurtz or Bazzana if one falls; take your favorite available player from this tier; take a non-FYPD prospect who is available and ranks in my top 75

Top-400 Range: 27-75

16-25

14. Ryan Waldschmidt, LF/DH, ARI, 2026 ETA, $2.9M bonus

15. Charlie Condon, LF/3B, COL, 2026 ETA, $9.25M bonus

16. Theo Gillen, LF/2B/CF, TB, 2028 ETA, $4.37M bonus

17. Slade Caldwell, CF/LF, ARI, 2028 ETA, $3.09M bonus

18. Kellon Lindsey, 2B/SS/CF, LAD, 2028 ETA, $3.3M bonus

19. Braylon Payne, CF/LF, MIL, 2028 ETA, $3.44M bonus

20. Josuar De Jesus Gonzalez, SS, SF, 2029 ETA, TBD bonus

21. Jurrangelo Cijntje, BHP, SEA, 2026 ETA, $4.88M bonus

We're just taking shots in this tier. They're exciting shots, but there's no floor on any of these prospects. Waldschmidt is a player I expect to end up with in multiple dynasty leagues as a second-round FYPD pick. He's a better fantasy prospect than a real-life prospect and he suffered some inopportune injuries at key moments as an amateur that prevented him from climbing higher up boards prior to his strong junior year. Condon was my No. 1 player in this class before anyone played in pro games and before it was clear Sasaki was coming over. However, I made it clear back then how volatile this class was due to all the cheating happening in college baseball, and Condon's pro debut was scary enough that I'm pretty much out. He has a very high ceiling still, but I also think it's possible he's not a top-150 prospect on the late-May update. Gillen, Caldwell, Lindsey and Payne all have reasonably high ceilings, but they're years away and could progress slowly through the minors. Gonzalez is the top J-15 hitter in the class for fantasy, as he has the tools to turn into a superstar, but he's not a can't-miss prospect and he's four-plus years away. Cijntje gets a bump due to his perfect landing spot with Seattle. I list him as a both-handed pitcher, but he may scrap throwing left-handed to certain lefties at some point, and is a much more highly regarded righty pitcher.

I'd still be hesitant to trade down or out in this range, but I'd entertain offers, especially if you're risk averse and/or Waldschmidt is gone.

Options: Take a player from the prior tier if one falls; take your favorite player available from this tier; take the best non-FYPD prospect available; trade down/out

Top-400 Range: 85-146

26-40

22. Cam Caminiti, LHP, ATL, 2027 ETA, $3.56M bonus

23. Ryan Sloan, RHP, SEA, 2028 ETA, $3M bonus

24. Levi Sterling, RHP, PIT, 2028 ETA, $2.51M bonus

25. PJ Morlando, LF/1B, MIA, 2028 ETA, $3.4M bonus

26. Kale Fountain, 3B/1B, SD, 2028 ETA, $1.7M bonus

27. Griffin Burkholder, CF/LF/RF, PHI, 2028 ETA, $2.5M bonus

28. JD Dix, SS/2B, ARI, 2028 ETA, $2.15M bonus

29. Tyson Lewis, SS/2B/3B, CIN, 2028 ETA, $3.05M bonus

30. Elian Pena, 3B/2B/SS, NYM, 2029 ETA, TBD bonus

31. Yorger Bautista, CF, SEA, 2029 ETA, TBD bonus

The fact that this tier is led off by three prep pitchers and closes with a couple 17-year-old international signees illustrates the elevating risk as we go further down the board. There's at least a high ceiling with all of these guys to justify the long wait before they are big-league ready, but you could end up churning this spot sometime this summer in a worst-case scenario. In the case of Pena and Bautista, you'll be waiting until June for them to be playing in official Dominican Summer League games.

Fountain is probably the player I'm highest on in this tier relative to consensus. He's got that type of big Coby Mayo/Austin Riley prep power-hitting corner bat profile that I love in the second or third round of competitive FYPDs, and I trust the Padres more than most teams when it comes to identifying prep hitters who require seven figures but aren't consensus top-15 picks. 

Options: Take a player from the prior tier if one falls; take your favorite player from this tier or your favorite non-FYPD prospect who is available, trade back if several players in this tier are falling and you can pick up assets to move down.

Top-400 Range: 182-194

41-50

32. Tomoyuki Sugano, RHP, BAL, 2025 ETA, signed 1-year, $13M contract

33. Trey Yesavage, RHP, TOR, 2026 ETA, $4.18M bonus

34. Braylon Doughty, RHP, CLE, 2029 ETA, $2.57M bonus

35. Kash Mayfield, LHP, SD, 2029 ETA, $3.44M bonus

36. Joey Oakie, RHP, CLE, 2029 ETA, $2M bonus

37. Jonathan Santucci, LHP, NYM, 2027 ETA, $2.03M bonus

38. Malcolm Moore, C/DH, TEX, 2027 ETA, $3M bonus

39. Kaelen Culpepper, 3B/SS, MIN, 2026 ETA, $3.93M bonus

40. Seaver King, 3B/CF/LF/SS/2B, WAS, 2027 ETA, $5.15M bonus

I'm probably going with non-FYPD guys at this point unless it's a super deep league, as Sugano, Yesavage, Culpepper and King will be gone by pick 41 and the prep pitchers may continue to fall. If you've got a win-now roster and could use another starting pitcher to stream in favorable matchups, I don't mind taking Sugano in the late second round or third round of your FYPD, but it's got to be those specific circumstances for Sugano to have appeal. I'm lower on Culpepper and King after coming to the conclusion that they will struggle to really impact the ball in the majors and are more valuable as real-life prospects because of their defensive tools and versatility. That said, if they show more impact potential offensively, I'll change my tune, as they're both good athletes who should steal bases and will certainly play if they are making an offensive impact.

Santucci is the closest thing I've got to a target in this tier. He's got plenty of ceiling as a lefty with two plus pitches and he's going to both a great pitcher's park and an org. led by David Stearns that knows what they're doing with pitching.

Options: Take someone from the prior tier if anyone falls; take one of the best non-FYPD prospects available; take a flyer on your favorite prospect available in this tier.

Top-400 Range: 241-264

51-100

Again, I'm likely looking at non-FYPD prospects in the back half of my FYPDs unless it's a really deep league. These are the remaining FYPD prospects who slot into the top 400:

41. Caleb Bonemer, SS/3B, CHW, 2028 ETA, $3M bonus

42. Luke Dickerson, 2B/SS/CF, WAS, 2028 ETA, $3.8M bonus

43. Conrad Cason, RHP/SS, BOS, 2028 ETA, $1.25M bonus

44. Dante Nori, CF, PHI, 2028 ETA, $2.5M bonus

45. Chase Harlan, 3B/1B, LAD, 2028 ETA, $1.75M bonus

46. Dorian Soto, 3B/SS/RF/LF, BOS, 2029 ETA, TBD bonus

47. Hyeseong Kim, 2B/LF, LAD, 2025 ETA, signed 3-year, $12.5M contract

48. Caleb Lomavita, C/DH, WAS, 2027 ETA, $2.33M bonus

49. Blake Burke, 1B/DH, MIL, 2027 ETA, $2.1M bonus

50. Tommy White, 1B/DH, ATH, 2027 ETA, $3M bonus

51. James Tibbs, LF/1B, SF, 2027 ETA, $4.75M bonus

52. Ben Hess, RHP, NYY, 2027 ETA, $2.75M bonus

53. Boston Bateman, LHP, SD, 2029 ETA, $2.5M bonus

54. Gage Jump, LHP, ATH, 2027 ETA, $2M bonus

55. Bryce Meccage, RHP, MIL, 2029 ETA, $2.5M bonus

56. David Shields, LHP, KC, 2029 ETA, $2.3M bonus

57. Vance Honeycutt, CF, BAL, 2027 ETA, $4M bonus

58. Kevin Alvarez, LF/RF, HOU, 2029 ETA, TBD bonus

59. Maykel Coret, CF/RF, TB, 2029 ETA, TBD bonus

60. Trey Gregory-Alford, RHP, LAA, 2029 ETA, $1.96M bonus

61. Cris Rodriguez, RF/CF/LF, DET, 2029 ETA, TBD bonus

62. Payton Eeles, 2B, MIN, 2025 ETA, signed as undrafted free agent in May 2024

63. Mike Sirota, CF, LAD, 2028 ETA, $863.3K bonus

64. Bryce Cunningham, RHP, NYY, 2027 ETA, $2.3M bonus

65. Jared Thomas, 1B/CF/LF, COL, 2027 ETA, $2M bonus

66. Carson DeMartini, 3B, PHI, 2027 ETA, $545.40K bonus

67. Cobb Hightower, 2B/SS/LF, SD, 2028 ETA, $852.3K bonus

68. Dylan Dreiling, LF, TEX, 2027 ETA, $1.29M bonus

Options: Take someone from the prior tier if anyone falls; take one of the best non-FYPD prospects available; take a flyer on your favorite prospect available in this tier.

Top-400 Range: 275-390

I've got more info on FYPD prospects 69-100 on the FYPD top 100. Please ask me any questions in the comments section, and good luck in your first-year player drafts!