Amed Rosario

Rosario essentially repeated his 2021 campaign with two exceptions. First, he was more durable, playing in 153, a dozen more than the previous campaign. More importantly, Rosario's defense markedly improved, which is key since the Guardians have a treasure trove of promising middle infielders and Rosario's newfound defensive prowess makes it tougher for the club to replace him. At the dish, Rosario's strikeout rate dropped to a career best 16.6%, helping to offset a small dip in BABIP. Rosario swiped 18 bases in 22 chances and is a candidate to run more with the new rules. Rosario hit second most of the season, helping buoy run production, but he's a candidate to drop down, lessening his impact as a compiler. Rosario remains a mid-tier asset at a position replete with top-end talent, but he isn't a sure thing to repeat last season's volume.

After being a disappointment in 2020 (.643 OPS), Rosario got back to being a multi-category contributor. While there was hope he'd start stealing 30 bags, he's probably going to be more of a 15-20 steal guy. Those numbers are perfectly fine for a fantasy manager who slowly adds steals throughout the draft and doesn't rely on one player. Besides the steals, he has always had a plus batting average and provided around 10 homers. He's never going to be an elite power hitter with a groundball rate north of 50%, but his power is acceptable. In some formats, his managers will get the bonus of him being qualified in the outfield (18 games). While there might be some stolen base upside remaining, just pay for the past production and you'll be happy.

The 25-year-old took a step forward in 2019 with a .755 OPS, but he struggled during the shortened campaign with a career-low .643 OPS. More surprisingly, Rosario failed to notch a stolen base on one attempt after stealing 43 bases in 64 tries over the prior two seasons. Andres Gimenez was emerging as a more stable option at shortstop for the Mets in 2020, so the team was once again considering a transition to center field for Rosario before trading both off to Cleveland in the Francisco Lindor deal. The .287/.323/.432 slash line, 15 home runs and 19 stolen bases Rosario posted in 2019 offered some fantasy value, but his follow-up performance last season creates doubt about his long-term future. The short term is up in the air as well; Rosario could be slated for part-time duty after Cleveland brought back Cesar Hernandez.

Rosario now has two full seasons under his belt as a major leaguer before his 24th birthday. Normally, this would be a bigger story if it weren't for the wunderkinds in Atlanta and Washington blowing the curve for others. You can see how Rosario is progressing offensively at the plate, improving his strikeout rate in each of his three seasons and looking more like a hitter rather than someone who is in the majors for his glove. His speed is a weapon he used to leg out 18 infield hits and steal 24 bases. The happy fun ball is mostly to thank for the 15 homers, though he increased his average exit velocity by two mph last season and spiked his hard-hit rate up seven percentage points. It was a complete season for Rosario, and there could be even more in the tank for him in 2020. A 20-20 season with a .300 average cannot be ruled out as he completes his physical maturity. Last season to buy at a discount.

A second-half stolen-base surge has propelled Rosario up the already-loaded shortstop rankings. After the break, the 23-year-old speed merchant swiped 18 bases in 24 attempts while also chipping in five homers. As impressive as this stint was, Rosario carries a lot of risk as his plate skills need work for a player of this ilk, especially since he's not a power or batting-average asset. He walked only 5% of the time while punching out at a 20% clip. Both need work for Rosario to be assured of a spot at the top of the Mets' order, where he can put his wheels to use. There's reason for optimism as his contact skills improved over the second half, often telling for young players. Still, the range of outcomes is wide as a slide could push Rosario low in the order where his opportunities to run would suffer. It comes down to your risk profile. How much do you want to pay for speed upside from a player with middling power and batting-average potential?

For all the hype surrounding Rosario as a prospect and buzz around his arrival to the big leagues, his debut sure was a disappointment. He walked at a meager 1.8 percent clip while striking out nearly 29 percent of the time, and when he did make contact, it typically ended with a whimper. Rosario drove the ball into the ground half the time (50.9 percent groundball rate) and posted an 84.3 mph average exit velocity, which ranked 328th among 387 players with at least 100 at-bats. He showed an ability to hit at the upper levels of the minors and he can run, but the 22-year-old may be a near-zero in the power department in the coming seasons, and there's no guarantee he'll hit major-league pitching for a high average. The pedigree will entice some to gamble on a bounce-back, but the upside for 2018 isn't all that high.

Patience is often preached when analyzing toolsy high-pedigree prospects who are not producing in the lower levels, and with good reason. Rosario posted a 97 wRC+ with zero home runs and 12 steals as a 19-year-old at High-A St. Lucie in 2015, but he broke out in a major way last year, as the production finally started to match the talent. A 132 wRC+ and 36:21 K:BB in 66 games at High-A earned him a midseason promotion to the Eastern League, and that is when things started to get a little absurd. His numbers as a 20-year-old with Double-A Binghamton can almost be thrown out, considering his .433 BABIP. However, even when accounting for luck, that kind of success means something, given his age, level and defensive home. Scouts agree, as there are few players in the minors who receive the rave reviews that follow whenever Rosario's name gets brought up. He should offer across-the-board production in his prime years, with batting average, steals and runs being his top contributions. He could take over at shortstop for the Mets as early as this summer.

Rosario was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2012, and has emerged as the organization’s token toolsy shortstop who is a long way from the big leagues. He only has seven games in a full season league on his resume. In 290 plate appearances at short-season Brooklyn last season, he slashed .289/.337/.380 with one home run and seven steals. At 6-foot-2, 170 pounds, he has some filling out to do, but there is little doubt that he will be able to stick at shortstop. Owning Rosario in a dynasty league requires extreme patience, but the payoff could be huge down the line. He has the most upside of any hitter in the Mets’ system, but the risk is equally high. If everything clicks, he will be a top-10 shortstop with offensive contributions across the board, but he may not reach the majors until 2018.