NFL Game Previews: Giants-Bucs Matchup

N.Y. Giants (+11) at Tampa Bay, o/u 49.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Is it time for Saquon Barkley's return, part two? The running back's been out since Week 5, but he might be ready to suit up coming out of the Giants' bye. The receiving corps is probably as healthy as it's going to be too, so Daniel Jones won't have any excuses left for his play if he can't turn things around. The third-year QB hasn't hit for 250 passing yards since, hmm, Barkley's last full game in Week 4, when Jones had his best performance of the season against the Saints. Maybe there's hope for him yet. He might need another 400-yard effort to keep up with a motivated Tom Brady. The Bucs have lost two straight sandwiched around their own bye, and last week's dud against Washington isn't going to sit well with the future Hall of Famer. Brady also gets Rob Gronkowski back this week, leaving only Antonio Brown likely out. Tampa Bay's defense is another unit that needs to find its footing, giving up 65 points during their brief losing streak. The team's still in first place in the NFC South, and the division doesn't look as tough as it did at the beginning of the season, but the defending champs still haven't looked the part for more than brief stretches in 2021. There's time for the pieces to fall into place, especially given the QB carousels in New Orleans and Carolina, but given the state of the team, a first-round exit wouldn't be a shocker.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: RB Barkley (questionable, ankle), RB Devontae Booker (questionable, hip), WR Sterling Shepard (questionable, quadriceps), LT Andrew Thomas (IR, ankle), S Logan Ryan (doubtful, COVID-19)

TB injuries: WR Chris Godwin (questionable, foot), WR Antonio Brown (questionable, ankle), OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (questionable, shoulder), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (IR, elbow)

NYG DFS targets: none

TB DFS targets: Leonard Fournette $6,300 DK / $7,300 FD (NYG 30th in rushing DVOA, 23rd in YPC allowed)

NYG DFS fades: Barkley $6,700 DK / $7,000 FD (TB fourth in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed), Giants DEF $2,600 DK / $3,400 FD (TB t-1st in sacks allowed, third in points per game)

TB DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYG are 32nd in red-zone conversions at 44.0 percent; TB is t-10th in red-zone defense at 54.5 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, 14-17 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Barkley plays and manages 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown. Jones throws for 230 yards and gets picked off twice. Fournette stomps out 90 yards and a score. Brady throws for 280 yards and two TDs, hitting Gronk and Mike Evans. Buccaneers 24-7

New Orleans (+1.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The NFC South is one of the divisions that has turned into a complete muddle, as all four teams came into the week within two games of each other. It still seems to be on the shoulders of everyone else to prove they have what it takes to catch the Bucs, though, and the Saints haven't exactly been doing that by losing two straight, including squandering their home game against the Falcons. They certainly have plenty of excuses — no Jameis Winston, no Michael Thomas and last week even no Alvin Kamara — but the defense has at least made sure they didn't get blown out. The Eagles have a worse record at 4-6 but have been playing better football lately, and especially away from the Link as all four of their wins have come on the road, leaving them 0-4 at home. Jalen Hurts has taken a step forward this season, but he's still more runner than passer, throwing for less than 200 yards in five of the last six games but averaging more than 50 rushing yards. At least he's starting to click with DeVonta Smith, as the rookie wideout has a 9-182-3 line on only 12 targets the last two games. If Hurts does make a Josh Allen-like leap in Year 3, he and Smith will win a lot of pools in 2022. In the meantime, they'll try to keep the team's faint wild-card hopes alive.

The Skinny

NO injuries: QB Taysom Hill (questionable, foot), RB Kamara (questionable, knee), LT Terron Armstead (questionable, knee), RT Ryan Ramczyk (questionable, knee)

PHI injuries: RB Miles Sanders (IR, ankle), RG Brandon Brooks (IR, pectoral)

NO DFS targets: Adam Trautman $3,300 DK / $4,800 FD (PHI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

PHI DFS targets: Quez Watkins $3,700 DK / $5,300 FD (NO 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

NO DFS fades: none

PHI DFS fades: Sanders $5,000 DK / $6,000 FD and Jordan Howard $4,800 DK / $5,900 FD and Boston Scott $4,900 DK / $5,700 FD (NO first in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed), Dallas Goedert $4,400 DK / $5,700 FD (NO fourth in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: NO is fifth in red-zone conversions at 69.7 percent; PHI is 19th in red-zone defense at 63.2 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kamara doesn't play, and Mark Ingram picks up 80 combined yards and a score. Trevor Siemian throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Trautman. Sanders leads the PHI backfield with 50 yards. Hurts throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Smith while running in a score of his own. Saints 23-17

Miami at N.Y. Jets (+3), o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Are the Dolphins finally getting their act together? They've won consecutive games, though beating the Texans should probably be viewed as a gimme and last week's victory over the Ravens seemed to owe more to Baltimore being a no-show. Brian Flores at least has been forced to realize that his wagon is hitched to Tua Tagovailoa, as the second-year quarterback played through his broken finger in the second half last week and looked OK. His receiving corps will eventually get healthier, though no reinforcements are arriving this week, and while they have no realistic shot at a playoff spot this season, the Fish could be this year's spoiler team if they round into form for the stretch run — the final three opponents on their schedule are the Saints, Titans and Patriots. The Jets are 2-7 and seem pretty rudderless, but is it weird I don't think Robert Saleh is doing that bad a job? He saw that Zach Wilson was floundering, so he used Wilson's knee injury as an excuse to get the rookie out of the line of fire, riding Magic Mike White to that ridiculous upset of the Bengals, and now with that old White magic having run its course, Saleh will hand the reins to an elite backup in Joe Flacco. (That's still a thing, right?) Even with the carousel at QB, the offense hasn't been as big an issue as the defense. There are some decent pieces in guys like Quinnen Williams and C.J. Mosley, but finding players to fill in the roster around them has literally become a wild goose chase. (Before you scold me about using the word "literally" improperly, please note the Jets plucked some kid named Rachad Wildgoose off the Bills' practice squad this week). I'm going to let them secure that high draft slot next year so Saleh can load up on defenders he likes before I pass judgment on him as a head coach.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: WR DeVante Parker (IR, shoulder), WR Will Fuller (IR, finger), C Michael Deiter (IR, foot), C Greg Mancz (IR, ankle)

NYJ injuries: QB Wilson (doubtful, knee), LT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee), LG Alijah Vera-Tucker (questionable, toe)

MIA DFS targets: Tagovailoa $5,500 DK / $7,000 FD (NYJ 32nd in passing DVOA, 31st in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed), Myles Gaskin $5,700 DK / $6,200 FD (NYJ 31st in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed)

NYJ DFS targets: Jamison Crowder $4,700 DK / $5,700 FD (MIA 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

MIA DFS fades: none

NYJ DFS fades: Jets DEF $2,300 DK / $3,800 FD (t-29th in takeaways, 32nd in points per game allowed)

Key stat: NYJ are 13th in red-zone conversions at 61.5 percent; MIA is ninth in red-zone defense at 53.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 MIA, average score 22-15 MIA, average margin of victory 11 points. Both MIA losses during that stretch have come on the road

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Gaskin scampers for 90 yards and a TD. Tua throws for 270 yards and two scores, finding Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki, but he also loses a fumble that Shaq Lawson returns to the house. Michael Carter gains 80 combined yards. Flacco throws for 230 yards and touchdowns to Crowder and Corey Davis. Dolphins 30-24

Washington (+3.5) at Carolina, o/u 43.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

It's really classy of the Panthers to invite Cam Newton back to Bank of America Stadium for some sort of ceremony honoring Ron Rivera (presses hand to ear) ... wait, what? Seriously? Rivera's Washington squad stunned the Bucs last week to snap a four-game losing streak, and the defense might finally be coming around (or at least they might have been before Chase Young went down for the season), as they've held their last two opponents to less than 20 points while producing nine takeaways in their last five games. Of course, Taylor Heinicke and the offense has given the ball away nine times in that stretch, but one crisis at a time. After a brief cameo in last week's win over the Kyler Murray-less Cards, Cam Newton appears set to reclaim the starting job he lost in 2019 before spending last season in the New England wilderness. Newton threw for one TD and ran for another in only eight snaps, which means he'll produce about 10 scores with a full workload, right? There's really no telling what Cam might have left in the tank — it's been a couple shoulder surgeries since he put up good passing numbers — but his running alone gives the Panthers offense more stability than it had under P.J. Walker or the October version of Sam Darnold, especially working behind a banged-up offensive line. Newton also won't have to be the whole show with Christian McCaffrey healthy and the defense still posting excellent numbers. In fact, it's the defense that will probably determine whether they make the playoffs, as Carolina is 5-0 when they hold an opponent to less than 21 points, and 0-5 when they don't.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: WR Curtis Samuel (questionable, groin), TE Logan Thomas (IR, hamstring), TE Ricky Seals-Jones (out, hip), DE Young (IR, knee), DE Montez Sweat (IR, jaw), CB Kendall Fuller (questionable, knee)

CAR injuries: QB Darnold (IR, shoulder), LT Cameron Erving (IR, calf), C Matt Paradis (IR, knee), CB Jaycee Horn (IR, foot)

WAS DFS targets: Terry McLaurin $7,000 DK / $7,000 FD (CAR 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)

CAR DFS targets: Robby Anderson $4,600 DK / $5,600 FD (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

WAS DFS fades: Heinicke $5,300 DK / $6,700 FD (CAR first in passing yards per game allowed, fourth in YPA allowed), J.D. McKissic $5,000 DK / $5,200 FD (CAR first in passing DVOA vs. RB), DeAndre Carter $3,300 DK / $5,500 FD (CAR first in DVOA vs. WR2), Thomas $3,900 DK / $5,500 FD (CAR third in DVOA vs. TE)

CAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: WAS is 19th in third-down conversions at 38.5 percent; CAR is fourth in third-down defense at 33.1 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Antonio Gibson puts together 70 yards and a TD. Heinicke throws for 240 yards. CMac racks up 120 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Newton throws for 220 yards and a score to Anderson while running in a TD of his own. Panthers 28-16

Indianapolis (+7) at Buffalo, o/u 50.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Colts have now won four of their last five to get back to .500, but the one loss hurt as it came to the Titans in OT, allowing Tennessee to sweep the season series and giving Indy an almost insurmountable hill to climb to win the AFC South. They could run the table and the Titans would only need to go 4-3 down the stretch to hold them off. Jonathan Taylor continues to rampage, popping for at least 100 scrimmage yards and a TD in seven consecutive games, and until last week's nail-biter against the Jags, that dangerous rushing attack has given Carson Wentz the freedom to make some plays. This still isn't an elite offense, though (eighth in points per game, 12th in yards per play), but it's good enough to put a scare in someone if the Colts can make the postseason. Statistically, the Bills are elite, on both sides of the ball, and yet they've lost three games and now find themselves in a dogfight with the Patriots atop the AFC East. Stefon Diggs is coming off his best performance of the season, Josh Allen is headed for another big campaign, and the defense has more shutouts than games in which it's allowed more than the league average in points. Or, to put their dominance another way, those three losses have been by a combined 13 points. Buffalo's closest win has been by 15, and the average margin in their victories is 26.3 points. The Bills are basically stomping everyone they face ... except when they don't. Tough as it is to call anybody that's lost to Jacksonville the best team in the conference, nobody else has a compelling case.

The Skinny

IND injuries: K Rodrigo Blankenship (IR, hip), LB Darius Leonard (questionable, ankle), S Khari Willis (IR, calf)

BUF injuries: LG Jon Feliciano (IR, calf), RT Spencer Brown (out, COVID-19), LB Tremaine Edmunds (questionable, hamstring)

IND DFS targets: none

BUF DFS targets: Bills DEF $3,200 DK / $4,500 FD (first in takeaways, first in points per game allowed)

IND DFS fades: Wentz $5,500 DK / $6,900 FD (BUF first in passing DVOA, second in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, first in TD% allowed), T.Y. Hilton $4,300 DK / $5,700 FD (BUF second in DVOA vs. WR2)

BUF DFS fades: Zack Moss $5,000 DK / $5,800 FD and Devin Singletary $4,600 DK / $5,800 FD (IND second in rushing DVOA, first in rushing TDs allowed)

Key stat: IND is 28th in red-zone conversions at 51.3 percent; BUF is second in red-zone defense at 45.8 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 40s, 11 mph wind, 5-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Taylor puts together 90 combined yards. Wentz throws for 230 yards and a score to Mo Alie-Cox but gets picked off twice. Moss leads the BUF backfield with 60 yards. Allen throws for 310 yards and three touchdowns, finding Diggs (who tops 100 yards) twice and Dawson Knox once while also running for 40 yards and a TD. Bills 31-13

Detroit (+10) at Cleveland, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Whew, that was a close one. The Lions almost won a game last week, which might have ruined their march to the first overall pick in the 2022 draft, but instead Chris Boswell bailed them out with a 51-yard field goal in the fourth quarter at Heinz Field to make it a tie. Jared Goff got banged up in the process, and taking a cue from the Steelers, they're now going to turn the ball over to a backup who seems very unlikely to produce a victory. Tim Boyle will take over under center with nobody to throw to and maybe no left tackle to block Myles Garrett, which seems like less than ideal circumstances in which to make your first NFL start. The Browns are 5-5 but in the AFC North cellar, and they can't afford to lose ground, so even with a game in Baltimore looming next week, they don't have the luxury of looking past Detroit. Nick Chubb is also back, and they can probably win this one just by giving him and D'Ernest Johnson 40-50 carries, but I guess Baker Mayfield will have to throw it once in a while just for show.

The Skinny

DET injuries: QB Goff (doubtful, oblique), RB Jamaal Williams (questionable, thigh), WR Trinity Benson (questionable, knee), LT Taylor Decker (questionable, elbow), K Austin Seibert, (IR, hip), CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (IR, thigh), S Tracy Walker (questionable, concussion)

CLE injuries: RB Kareem Hunt (IR, calf), WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (questionable, groin), WR Anthony Schwartz (out, concussion), RT Jack Conklin (IR, elbow)

DET DFS targets: Benson $3,000 DK / $4,900 FD and KhaDarel Hodge $3,000 DK / $4,600 FD (CLE 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)

CLE DFS targets: Nick Chubb $7,800 DK / $9,000 FD (DET 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Jarvis Landry $5,100 DK / $6,300 FD (DET 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Browns DEF $3,100 DK / $5,000 FD (t-1st in sacks, DET t-29th in points per game)

DET DFS fades: none

CLE DFS fades: none

Key stat: CLE is 23rd in red-zone conversions at 54.5 percent; DET is 32nd in red-zone defense at 77.8 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-40s, 12-13 mph wind, 70-80 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: D'Andre Swift gain 70 yards and a TD. Boyle throws for less than 200 yards and gets sacked five times, but he does find Hodge for a score. Chubb gallops for 140 yards and two touchdowns. Mayfield throws for 220 yards and TDs to Landry and David Njoku. Browns 28-17

San Francisco at Jacksonville (+6.5), o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Niners have been alternating wins and losses since their Week 6 bye, and while last week's pummeling of the Rams was impressive, they couldn't beat Colt McCoy the week before. That inconsistency leaves them 4-5, and they'll need to make a run at some point if they're going to squeeze into a wild card. Rookie sensation Elijah Mitchell isn't 100 percent healthy and seems unlikely to play, but if you think that means Kyle Shanahan will finally give Trey Sermon a shot, you'll probably be disappointed. The Jags are suddenly 2-2 in their last four games, and even one of the losses was close, but I refuse to believe they've turned a corner. The offense failed to produce more than 17 points in three of those games, and before you try to give some credit to the defense, keep in mind it coughed up 31 points to Geno Smith on Halloween. Trevor Lawrence, meanwhile, has failed to reach a 5.0 YPA in three consecutive games. How is that even possible? (Looks at who's head coach.) Oh, right. His 6.0 season mark is second lowest in the league among qualified QBs, ahead of only Jacoby Brissett, and he's underwater in TD:INT (8:9) as well. It's the worst a Darrell Bevell offense has performed since his first couple years as an offensive coordinator, back when he was stuck with guys like Brad Johnson and Tarvaris Jackson as his QB in Minnesota. Lawrence was supposed to be better than those guys.

The Skinny

SF injuries: RB Elijah Mitchell (doubtful, finger), RB JaMycal Hasty (out, ankle), RT Mike McGlinchey (IR, quadriceps), DE Dee Ford (IR, back), LB Dre Greenlaw (IR, groin), S Jaquiski Tartt (IR, knee)

JAC injuries: RB James Robinson (questionable, heel), C Brandon Linder (IR, knee)

SF DFS targets: Jimmy Garoppolo $5,600 DK / $7,100 FD (JAC 31st in passing DVOA, 26th in YPA allowed), Brandon Aiyuk $5,000 DK / $6,000 FD (JAC 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)

JAC DFS targets: none

SF DFS fades: none

JAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC is 32nd in third-down conversions at 30.3 percent; SF is 12th in third-down defense at 38.4 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jeff Wilson leads the SF backfield with 60 yards and two short touchdowns. Garoppolo throws for 280 yards and two TDs, hitting Deebo Samuel and Aiyuk. Robinson bangs out 70 yards. Lawrence throws for 220 yards and two scores to Marvin Jones and Jamal Agnew but gets picked off twice. 49ers 31-20

Houston (+10) at Tennessee, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Texans come out of their bye in bad shape. Tyrod Taylor's return in Week 9 didn't spark the offense at all, and Houston has scored in single digits a stunning five times in nine games. How is that even possible? (Looks at roster.) Oh, right. Aside from Brandin Cooks, the unit is a sea of fungible castoffs from other clubs, including newest arrival Royce Freeman, who is neither better nor worse than David Johnson or Phillip Lindsay or Rex Burkhead, but he's at least different, kind of. The Titans have survived the loss of Derrick Henry just fine, as an opportunistic defense keeps giving Ryan Tannehill relatively short fields to work with, but it still feels like a bit of a house of cards despite their six-game winning streak. In fact, I still don't know how they beat the Saints last week with no Henry, no Julio Jones and effectively no A.J. Brown (one catch on four targets). If there's a letdown spot on the slate this week, this looks like it — Tennessee's had trouble putting away Houston in the past, and they have New England on the horizon in Week 12. After wins over five consecutive playoff-caliber foes, seeing the Titans play down to the Texans' level wouldn't be a surprise.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: QB Deshaun Watson (out), LT Laremy Tunsil (IR, thumb), C Justin Britt (IR, knee)

TEN injuries: RB Derrick Henry (IR, foot), RB Jeremy McNichols (out, concussion), WR Julio Jones (IR, hamstring), TE Geoff Swaim (out, concussion), RG Nate Davis (out, concussion), LB David Long (out, hamstring), LB Rashaan Evans (out, ankle), OLB Bud Dupree (out, abdomen), CB Janoris Jenkins (questionable, chest)

HOU DFS targets: Danny Amendola $3,100 DK / $5,100 FD (TEN 27th in DVOA vs. WR3)

TEN DFS targets: D'Onta Foreman $4,900 DK / $6,200 FD (HOU 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed), Anthony Firkser $2,500 DK / $4,400 FD and MyCole Pruitt $2,600 DK / $4,700 FD (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

HOU DFS fades: none

TEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: TEN is 11th in third-down conversions at 40.6 percent; HOU is 27th in third-down defense at 43.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 TEN, average score 28-26 HOU, average margin of victory 12 points. TEN has won the last three meetings by an average score of 39-29

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, 10-11 mph wind, 55-75 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Johnson leads the HOU backfield with 50 yards. Taylor throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding Amendola and Nico Collins, but he also tosses a pick-six to Jayon Brown. Foreman rumbles for 80 yards and a score. Tannehill throws for 290 yards and two touchdowns, hitting AJB and Marcus Johnson. Titans 28-20

Green Bay at Minnesota (+2.5), o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Packers have the biggest lead of any team sitting atop their division, and a win here basically locks up the NFC North crown (five-game lead with six to play). Green Bay's offense has taken a bit of a tumble, scoring only 24 points the last two games, but in one Aaron Rodgers was in the COVID-19 protocols and in the other the weather was a factor, so don't read too much into it. The defense has been up to the challenge anyway — only one team has scored more than 21 points against the Packers in the last seven weeks, and the Bengals needed overtime to do it. They will be without Aaron Jones this week, but AJ Dillon's been doing a credible Derrick Henry impression lately, so they shouldn't miss a beat in the backfield. As for the Vikings, their 4-5 record probably doesn't do justice to how well they've played. Minnesota's only 3-2 over their last five, but the losses have been by a combined seven points to division leaders in the Cowboys and the Ravens, and a road win over the Chargers isn't anything to turn your nose up at. Dalvin Cook has looked great since getting healthy, averaging more than 100 rushing yards with a 4.8 YPC in the last four games, and Kirk Cousins continues to play nearly mistake-free football. Rodgers may own the Bears, and he hasn't lost to the Lions since 2018, but the Vikes tend to give him a lot more trouble, even if their banged-up secondary has even less chance to containing Davante Adams than usual.

The Skinny

GB injuries: RB Jones (out, knee), WR Allen Lazard (doubtful, shoulder), LT David Bakhtiari (out, knee), C Josh Myers (IR, knee), OLB Za'Darius Smith (IR, back), CB Jaire Alexander (IR, shoulder)

MIN injuries: CB Patrick Peterson (IR, hamstring), CB Bashaud Breeland (questionable, groin)

GB DFS targets: Dillon $6,200 DK / $7,000 FD (MIN 28th in rushing DVOA, 28th in rushing yards per game allowed)

MIN DFS targets: none

GB DFS fades: Packers DEF $3,100 DK / $4,000 FD (MIN t-1st in sacks allowed, t-1st in giveaways)

MIN DFS fades: K.J. Osborn $3,400 DK / $5,200 FD (GB first in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: MIN is t-7th in red-zone conversions at 66.7 percent; GB is 29th in red-zone defense at 73.1 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-4-1 GB, average score 22-22, average margin of victory nine points. The road team has won the last three meetings

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Dillon thunders for 100 yards and a touchdown. Rodgers throws for 300 yards and TDs to Adams (who tops 100 yards) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Cook responds with 120 yards and a score. Cousins throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Justin Jefferson and Tyler Conklin and turns the tables on Rodgers with a late, game-winning drive for a field goal. Vikings 27-24

Baltimore at Chicago (+5.5), o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

At first blush, this game looks like it could be a highly entertaining track meet between two of the league's most mobile quarterbacks, but these defenses are second and third in rushing yards allowed to the position, so you might want to keep those expectations in check. (Then again, the most dangerous running QB either team has faced so far might be Patrick Mahomes, so both those rankings could be blown up before halftime). Baltimore is clinging to the AFC North lead despite losing two of its last three, but even the six wins they have managed are kind of amazing given how riddled with injuries this roster has been. Sure, yeah, the preseason devastation in the backfield got all the headlines, but the Ravens' offensive line and defense aren't in much better shape. Per our team roster page, they have 15 guys on IR including name-brand players like Ronnie Stanley, Derek Wolfe and Marcus Peters, with another handful also out or on the NFI list or the like, and that's before you get to the usual splash of questionable designations. That's a huge amount of depth to have on the shelf or at less than 100 percent healthy and still be a tough opponent. The Bears don't have those kind of excuses for their 3-6 record and four-game losing streak, but they do have Matt Nagy. Justin Fields is making a bit of progress, but he still looks an awful lot like Year 1 of the Josh Allen experience, and Allen didn't break out until Year 3 (and even then it was a shock to most people). David Montgomery is also back in the saddle as the No. 1 RB even though rookie Khalil Herbert looked very good in his absence, and you'd think that would at least have earned him a timeshare or something, especially when your offensive game plan should be "let's keep Lamar Jackson off the field."

The Skinny

BAL injuries: RB Latavius Murray (questionable, ankle), WR Marquise Brown (questionable, thigh), WR Devin Duvernay (questionable, knee), LG Ben Cleveland (IR, knee), RT Patrick Mekari (questionable, ankle), CB Anthony Averett (questionable, thigh), CB Jimmy Smith (questionable, hip)

CHI injuries: RB Tarik Cohen (out, knee), WR Allen Robinson (doubtful, hamstring), RT Germain Ifedi (IR, knee), DT Akiem Hicks (out, ankle), OLB Khalil Mack (IR, foot), LB Danny Trevathan (IR, knee), S Eddie Jackson (questionable, hamstring)

BAL DFS targets: Brown $7,100 DK / $7,300 FD (CHI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)

CHI DFS targets: Fields $5,700 DK / $6,800 FD (BAL 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 29th in YPA allowed)

BAL DFS fades: none

CHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: CHI is 24th in red-zone conversions at 54.2 percent; BAL is first in red-zone defense at 44.4 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-40s, 10-12 mph wind, 20-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Devonta Freeman leads the BAL backfield with 60 yards, while Latavius Murray adds 50. Jackson throws for 240 yards and runs for 60, throwing two TDs to Brown and Rashod Bateman while running for a score himself. Montgomery grinds out 70 yards and a score. Fields throws for less than 200 yards but runs for 40 and a touchdown. Ravens 24-14

Cincinnati at Las Vegas (+1), o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

No team needed a bye last week more than the Bengals. They'd lost consecutive games, one an upset at the hands of the Jets and the other a rout at home against (ugh) the Browns, and the promise of a 5-2 start completely evaporated. Joe Burrow continues to show his inexperience and remains too careless with the ball, and he's tied for the NFL lead in interceptions with Sam Darnold. On the other hand, only Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford have thrown more TDs, and Burrow's 8.7 YPA is second to Kyler Murray. There's a dark horse MVP candidate here if he can clean things up down the stretch and Cincy goes on a tear that nets them a very winnable AFC North. The Raiders have an identical 5-4 record and an identical two-game losing streak to get there, but it's hard to see that as the beginning of anything but a slide to the AFC West cellar. For one thing, their closing schedule is brutal — a Week 13 tilt against Washington is Vegas' only remaining game against a team with a losing record. For another, well, (gestures vaguely at everything surrounding the team). Derek Carr is on pace for a career year even before you give him a 17th game, but like Burrow the INTs are starting to pile up as he feels the pressure to try to keep the franchise afloat, and unlike Burrow he has no one reliable to stretch the field, instead having to piece together drives with short chucks to Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller. Even if DeSean Jackson somehow stays healthy and turns back the clock a decade or so (DJax's line from his last 16 games, dating back to 2019 — 32-654-4 on 52 targets), that's probably not enough to stop what looks like an inevitable collapse.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: RG Xavier Su'a-Filo (IR, knee), CB Trae Waynes (IR, hamstring)

LV injuries: LG Richie Incognito (IR, calf), CB Trayvon Mullen (IR, toe)

CIN DFS targets: C.J. Uzomah $3,500 DK / $5,200 FD (LV 29th in DVOA vs. TE)

LV DFS targets: none

CIN DFS fades: none

LV DFS fades: none

Key stat: CIN is t-7th in red-zone conversions at 66.7 percent; LV is 31st in red-zone defense at 75.0 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Joe Mixon gains 80 yards and a touchdown. Burrow throws for 330 yards and three scores, finding Uzomah, Ja'Marr Chase (who tops 100 yards) and Tee Higgins, but he also tosses a pick-six to Johnathan Abram. Josh Jacobs picks up 70 yards. Carr answers back with 320 yards and three scores of his own, hitting Renfrow, Waller and Bryan Edwards. Bengals 31-28

Arizona at Seattle (+2.5), o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Cards' Week 8 loss to the Packers suddenly looms large, as the two clubs have 8-2 records as they fight it out for the top seed in the NFC. That gives Kliff Kingsbury a tough decision this week — Arizona is essentially undefeated with a healthy Kyler Murray under center, but 1-2 in games he's missed or played at less than 100 percent health. With a bye on the horizon next week, it makes a lot of sense to give him one more game off and ensure he's in top form for the stretch run, but can they afford to potentially fall a game behind Green Bay? The calculus becomes even trickier when you consider Colt McCoy might not play this week either, leaving the offense in the hands of Chris Streveler, who has all of 25 NFL passes on his resume. If Streveler gets the nod, though, it's probably good news for James Conner and Zach Ertz, given the check-down tendencies the QB has shown in his limited action. The Seahawks got their injured QB back last week, but they might as well have sat him down for all the good he did. Russell Wilson did not look good in his first game back from a broken finger (hands mic to NFL Films Announcer Guy) on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, but he should be back in form for this one. Seattle's season may seem lost at 3-6, but they're only a couple of wins out of a wild-card spot (even if they have a lot of teams to climb over to get there), so a big finish to the year could get them there. Then again, they haven't really beaten anyone of note since Week 1 (no, the 4-5 Niners with Trey Lance under center for half the game don't count), and the defense hasn't made things any easier on the offense. The Seahawks are somehow ninth in points per game allowed despite being 31st in yards per game allowed, with them and the Jets being the only squads coughing up more than 400 yards a game.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: QB Murray (questionable, ankle), QB McCoy (questionable, pectoral), RB Chase Edmonds (IR, ankle), WR DeAndre Hopkins (out, hamstring), LG Justin Pugh (out, calf), S Budda Baker (questionable, heel)

SEA injuries: RB Chris Carson (IR, neck), DE Kerry Hyder (questionable, calf), CB D.J. Reed (questionable, groin), S Jamal Adams (questionable, groin)

ARI DFS targets: James Conner $6,100 DK / $7,200 FD (SEA 26th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB)

SEA DFS targets: none

ARI DFS fades: none

SEA DFS fades: DK Metcalf $6,800 DK / $7,500 FD (ARI second in DVOA vs. WR1), Gerard Everett $3,100 DK / $5,000 FD (ARI second in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: SEA is second in red-zone conversions at 71.4 percent; ARI is 17th in red-zone defense at 60.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-4-1 SEA, average score 23-22 SEA, average margin of victory six points. Only two of the last 10 meetings have been decided by more than one score

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Conner racks up 120 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving, Streveler starts and throws for 220 yards. Alex Collins leads the SEA backfield with 60 yards. Wilson airs it out for 310 yards and three TDs, hitting Tyler Lockett (who tops 100 yards), Freddie Swain and Travis Homer. Seahawks 30-17

Dallas (+2.5) at Kansas City, o/u 55.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The week's marquee matchup features two teams leading their divisions, but they're taken very different paths to get there. The Cowboys have dominated the NFC East pretty much from the moment it was clear Dak Prescott was fully healthy, as the offense has been terrifying at times while a young, aggressive defense has made a huge leap from last year's dumpster fire. Amari Cooper's decision not to get vaccinated is going to cost him this game and Week 12 as well, but Prescott still has plenty of options to target. As for Kansas City, it's stumbled back to the top of the AFC West thanks largely to everyone else stumbling even more. Last week's win over Vegas was a welcome return to form for the offense, but it's fair to ask whether that had more to do with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes figuring out how other teams have been handling them, or Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley deciding to ignore how other teams had been handling them. The backfield could get Clyde Edwards-Helaire back this week, but it's the lack of a dependable target emerging to complement Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce that's been a curious question. Sammy Watkins had trouble staying healthy, but he at least came up with some big games when he did; Mecole Hardman hasn't in his place, to the point that Byron Pringle might be about to take over the No. 2 wideout role.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: WR Cooper (out, COVID-19), LT Tyron Smith (questionable, ankle), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), DE Randy Gregory (IR, calf)

KC injuries: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (IR, knee), RT Lucas Niang (out, ribs), CB L'Jarius Sneed (questionable, knee)

DAL DFS targets: Prescott $7,200 DK / $8,400 FD (KC 27th in passing DVOA, 27th in YPA allowed, 25th in TD% allowed, 32nd in rushing yards allowed to QBs, t-32nd in rushing TDs allowed to QBs)

KC DFS targets: Kelce $7,100 DK / $7,300 FD (DAL 24th in DVOA vs. TE)

DAL DFS fades: none

KC DFS fades: Hill $8,200 DK / $8,500 FD (DAL first in DVOA vs. WR1), Kansas City DEF $2,200 DK / $3,300 FD (t-30th in sacks, DAL t-3rd in sacks allowed, first in points per game)

Key stat: DAL is fifth in third-down conversions at 45.7 percent; KC is 16th in third-down defense at 40.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 50s, 15 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ezekiel Elliot picks up 90 yards and a score, while Tony Pollard adds 50 yards. Prescott throws for 260 yards and a TD to CeeDee Lamb while also running in a touchdown of his own. Edwards-Helaire returns but Darrel Williams still leads the K.C. backfield with 70 combined yards. Mahomes throws for 270 yards and two TDs, finding Kelce and Pringle. Cowboys 27-17

Pittsburgh (+5.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 47.0
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

I really can't figure out the Steelers. They've built a franchise and a system that's competitive basically every year, with a true next-man-up philosophy at every position ... except QB, where they're content to have a total scrub like Mason Rudolph behind their 39-year-old starter. I don't get it. It cost them last week, when Pittsburgh couldn't beat a winless Detroit team, but they're still 4-0-1 over their last five. This week they might not only be without Ben Roethlisberger, but T.J. Watt as well, so Mike Tomlin's ability to keep the train chugging along will be tested. Even so, that's a lot better than the Chargers have done. They're 1-3 in their last four against tough opposition, and while Justin Herbert's second NFL season hasn't been quite the coronation some expected, it's really been the defense that's the problem. The only team they've held below 24 points since Week 3 is the Raiders, over that four-game swoon, they've surrendered 28 points a game. Even when Herbert is at his best, that's a tough hurdle to get over every week, especially when the other team can run pretty much at will and keep him off the field — the Chargers are 25th in time of possession, and getting worse. With some key names potentially unavailable due to COVID-19 protocols, the Bolts' defense best hope might be to see Rudolph across the line from them.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: QB Roethlisberger (questionable, COVID-19), LG Kevin Dotson (out, ankle), DE Stephon Tuitt (IR, undisclosed), OLB T.J. Watt (out, hip/knee), CB Joe Haden (out, foot), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (out, COVID-19)

LAC injuries: RT Bryan Bulaga (IR, back), OLB Joey Bosa (questionable, COVID-19), LB Drue Tranquill (questionable, COVID-19)

PIT DFS targets: Najee Harris $8,400 DK / $8,700 FD (LAC 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed)

LAC DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: James Washington $4,100 DK / $5,200 FD (LAC second in DVOA vs. WR3)

LAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAC are seventh in third-down conversions at 43.9 percent and t-20th in red-zone defense at 63.6 percent; PIT is t-seventh in third-down defense at 34.5 percent and 20th in red-zone conversions at 58.3 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Harris pops for 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Rudolph starts and throws for under 200 yards. Austin Ekeler gains 100 combined yards and a score. Herbert throws for 250 yards and two TDs, hitting Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer. Chargers 24-13

New England at Atlanta (+7), 47.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Belichick is back, baby! Bill's boys have bounced four straight ... uhhh, bidders? Shoot, that alliteration really fizzled out on me there. Anyway, the Patriots are a half-game back of the Bills in the AFC East, and it's not like they've been facing pushovers. They've downed the Chargers and Browns during their winning streak, with the latter victory being an absolute rout last week. With Tennessee on the horizon in Week 12 and little prep time before a road game, this one kind of has letdown written all over it, but the numbers say New England will keep rolling, and raise your hand if you think a Belichick team will ever be unprepared for a game in Week 11 of a season. Yeah, didn't think so. I'm not sure you can call Mac Jones' 7.7 YPA over that four-game stretch impressive exactly, but a 65.2 percent completion rate and 6:1 TD:INT are, and he simply isn't playing like a rookie. His draft helium came from him being the most NFL-ready of this year's crop of QBs, and he landed in the right system for a guy who's best asset is his brain, so his early success shouldn't be a huge surprise. As for the Falcons, they were on the other end of a Week 10 rout, getting smoked in Dallas. Matt Ryan has failed to reach 200 passing yards twice in four games since Atlanta's bye, posting a 5:5 TD:INT over that stretch, and he simply doesn't have enough weapons — a problem that could be exacerbated Thursday if Cordarrelle Patterson doesn't go. That would leave the veteran signal-caller with only Kyle Pitts as a reliable option, and did I mention the Patriots have allowed the fewest catches in the league and have the best DVOA against tight ends? If Patterson's out, and Pitts gets Belichick'ed ... well, let's just say the likes of Olamide Zaccheaus and Wayne Gallman may not be up to the challenge.

The Skinny

NE injuries: RG Shaq Mason (questionable, abdomen), RT Trent Brown (questionable, calf), K Nick Folk (questionable, knee), LB Dont'a Hightower (questionable, ankle), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, ribs), OLB Kyle Van Noy (questionable, groin), CB Jalen Mills (questionable, forearm), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, ankle)

ATL injuries: RB Patterson (questionable, ankle), WR Calvin Ridley (out, personal)

NE DFS targets: Jones $10,400 DK / $15,000 FD (ATL 30th in passing DVOA, 29th in TD% allowed), Nelson Agholor $5,000 DK / $7,500 FD (ATL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Patriots DEF $5,800 DK (t-4th in takeaways, second in points per game allowed)

ATL DFS targets: Patterson $10,200 DK / $14,000 FD (NE 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

NE DFS fades: none

ATL DFS fades: Ryan $10,600 DK / $15,500 FD (NE fifth in passing DVOA, sixth in YPA allowed, sixth in TD% allowed), Russell Gage $6,600 DK / $10,000 FD (NE third in DVOA vs. WR1), Kyle Pitts $9,200 DK / $12,000 FD (NE first in DVOA vs. TE), Falcons DEF $3,400 DK (32nd in sacks, t-28th in takeaways, 31st in points per game allowed)

Key stat: NE is fourth in third-down conversions at 46.9 percent; ATL is 31st in third-down defense at 47.3 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Rhamondre Stevenson leads the NE backfield with 70 yards and a TD, while Damien Harris adds 50 yards. Jones throws for 240 yards and two scores, finding Agholor and Jakobi Meyers. Mike Davis leads the ATL backfield with 50 yards. Ryan throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Tajae Sharpe but gets picked off twice. Patriots 24-7
 
Last week's record: 6-7-1, 7-7 ATS, 6-7-1 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 93-56-1, 80-69-1 ATS, 68-80-2 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1207-728-7, 939-936-67 ATS, 678-24-28 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)