Sammy Watkins

Watkins signed a one-year, $6 million deal with the Ravens in March, setting him up to start opposite Marquise Brown. The fourth overall pick in the 2014 draft had a big season in Buffalo six years ago, but since then has mostly been third fiddle on the Rams and Chiefs. At 6-1, 211, Watkins has good size, and he ran a 4.43 40 at the 2014 NFL Scouting Combine, but he’s missed 14 games the last three seasons and has probably lost a step — he hasn’t had a 40-yard catch since 2018. Watkins gets a big QB downgrade from Patrick Mahomes to Lamar Jackson, but there’s also potential for a bigger role. Still, Brown is around, and tight end Mark Andrews, while not a Travis Kelce-level target hoover, is likely to be the team’s top option in the passing game. The Ravens also drafted Rashod Bateman in the first round, spreading thinner an already low-volume passing game.

Watkins' 2019 season was in some ways a microcosm of his career. The fourth overall pick in 2014 put up an 11-9-198-3 line in Week 1, but he didn't crack 80 yards or score a touchdown again until he went 10-7-114-1 in the AFC title game win over the Titans. The flashes of his elite pedigree have always been there, but injuries, inconsistency and adapting to new locations and roles have prevented him from reaching expectations. At 6-1, 211, and with 4.43 speed at the 2014 combine, Watkins has the athleticism and agility of a No. 1 NFL receiver. He's probably lost at least half a step due to injuries, but is still only 27. With Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman around, Watkins won't run many deep routes, and tight end Travis Kelce is Patrick Mahomes' favorite target over the middle. But Watkins will see work in the slot and outside and, after restructuring his deal in April, seems to again be the No. 3 option in the league's best passing game. Just realize his solid volume last year (90 targets in 14 games) came with Hill missing the better part of five games.

With Watkins the question is always health. Last year, he managed 10 games, 9.4 YPT, 13.0 YPC and two catches of 40-plus yards on only 55 targets. And that doesn't include the playoffs when he caught 10 of 16 targets for 176 yards over two contests. With Patrick Mahomes under center, it's hard not to be efficient, and Watkins, still only 26, has the size (6-1, 211) and speed (4.43 40) to make plays. But Watkins fought through hamstring and hip injuries early on before missing six games with a right foot injury. It wasn't the same foot on which he had two surgeries earlier in his career, but Watkins has missed at least three games in three of the last four seasons and shows up on the injury report almost every week, i.e., he's rarely at full strength. He signed a contract guaranteeing him $30 million last offseason, so he's locked in as one of the Chiefs' key receiving options if he stays healthy. Moreover, top receiver Tyreek Hlll, who pleaded guilty to domestic assault and battery of his girlfriend in college, was investigated for a domestic battery incident involving his three-year-old son this offseason. Should Hill receive discipline from he NFL - or go the way of Kareem Hunt whom the Chiefs released for his own off-field transgression - Watkins would be the top wideout in the league's best offense. Of course, all-world tight end Travis Kelce is still around, and the Chiefs drafted Mecole Hardman with the 56th pick ostensibly to fill Hill's role, so Watkins' target ceiling is probably capped even if he stays healthy.

Watkins finally got to play in a credible passing offense, and the results were mixed. On the one hand, he scored eight times on 70 targets, the same number of TDs as A.J. Green, who had 142 looks, and Watkins averaged 15.2 YPC and 8.5 YPT, more than respectable per-play efficiency in this dink-and-dunk era. On the other hand, he saw only 70 targets, despite his competition for market share being third-round rookie Cooper Kupp and his former complement in Buffalo, Robert Woods. Why the Rams didn't feel the need to get Watkins the ball is unclear, but the Chiefs guaranteed him $30 million this offseason to play opposite Tyreek Hill, so that should change - to an extent. Hill was the most explosive receiver in the league last year, and tight end Travis Kelce functions as a co-No. 1, often lining up in the slot. The Chiefs also throw to their tailbacks a good deal, so if everyone stays healthy, Watkins' ceiling is relatively modest. But Watkins - who has good size at 6-1, 211, and impressive speed (4.43 40) - should have a better floor given his contract and the lack of receiving depth beyond the aforementioned options. He will have to play with untested second-year quarterback Pat Mahomes, but that might redound to his benefit, as Mahomes hasn't established a long-term rapport with Hill or Kelce, either, and he has a cannon for an arm that fits well with Watkins' (and Hill's) downfield playmaking abilities.

Health is the chief -- and only -- concern with Watkins, who missed 11 games the past two seasons. When he has played, he's been as advertised, a big-play threat with good size, great speed and excellent ball skills. Watkins put those skills to good use in 2015 when he had seven catches for 40-plus on only 96 targets, easily the league's highest big-play rate. He also led the NFL that year with 10.9 YPT. The question, though, is whether Watkins can hold up. In May 2016 he broke a bone in his foot and had a screw inserted. While he suited up for Week 1, he was clearly at less than full capacity. He tried to play through it but was shut down from Week 2 through Week 12, after which he finished the season on the still-broken bone. Watkins had a second surgery in January and sat out voluntary workouts in April before learning the Bills declined to pick up his fifth-year option in May. Just three months later, he found himself a member of the Rams, joining former Bill Robert Woods. The downgrade from Tyrod Taylor to Jared Goff will more than likely inhibit his ability to produce, but if he stays healthy, Watkins is by far the most talented receiver on his new squad.

Watkins quietly had a huge season in 12.5 games. Watkins was the NFL's most efficient receiver last year - his 10.7 YPT was first among the league's 40 90-target WR, and his 17.5 YPC was second. Watkins had six catches of 40-plus yards, one fewer than Antonio Brown on less than half the targets. And Watkins scored nine TDs, despite only seven looks inside the 20 and four inside the 10. That should change in 2016, as Watkins saw all his red-zone targets in the final six games and all his inside-the-10 targets in the final five. His rapport with first-year starter Tyrod Taylor improved vastly in the second half - Watkins had five 100-yard games in the last nine weeks and double-digit targets in four of the last six. Watkins isn't dependent on red-zone targets for scores, either. With his blazing speed - 4.43 40 at the Combine, 4.33 unofficially - and athleticism, he can strike from anywhere. And at 6-1, 211, he has above-average size for a burner, and the toughness to be effective in traffic. With Taylor and Watkins in their second seasons together, and no serious competition for targets, Watkins should see a significant increase in volume. If he comes close to last years efficiency, look out. Watkins had foot surgery in May, and while he returned during the preseason, it still adds some risk. (Prior to the news, he was our No. 6 WR.)

Considering Watkins battled through nagging injuries and subpar quarterback play throughout his rookie season, it was a promising professional debut. He narrowly missed being the ninth rookie to break the 1,000-yard barrier since 2000, but managed a passable 7.7 YPT (22nd among the league's 41 100-target WR) and 15.1 YPC (8th) while playing in the NFL's fifth-least efficient passing offense (6.7 YPA). At 6-1, 211, Watkins has decent size and blazing speed (4.43 official Combine time, but ran 4.33 and 4.37 unofficially) and is tough and athletic enough to make contested plays anywhere on the field. With Percy Harvin and Charles Clay in the fold along with incumbent Robert Woods, Watkins will have more competition for targets this year, and new coach Rex Ryan plans to have a more run-heavy attack behind newly acquired LeSean McCoy. Still, Watkins is the premier talent among the pass catchers in this group and, health permitting, should grow in Year 2. Watkins, who had hip surgery this offseason, isn't expected to take part in OTAs, but should be ready for the start of training camp.

Taken with the fourth overall pick, Watkins should be the Bills’ top target right away now that Steve Johnson’s gone. Watkins’ prospects will hinge in large part on the development of second-year quarterback EJ Manuel who struggled through an injury-riddled rookie year. Moreover, rookie receivers rarely make significant impacts – when Keenan Allen broke 1,000 yards last year, he became only the fifth to do so this millennium. And 1,000 yards is not a particularly high bar to clear in the modern NFL – 23 receivers hit that mark in 2013. That said, few rookie receivers are their teams’ likely No. 1’s out of the gate, and few have Watkins’ combination of decent size (6-1, 205), toughness and blazing speed; Watkins’ official NFL Combine time was 4.43, but he unofficially ran a 4.33 and 4.37. The Bills brought in Mike Williams this offseason from Tampa Bay, and Robert Woods makes for a nice possession option, but both profile as complementary pieces.