Matt Ryan

Despite a 17th game last season, Ryan's decade-long streak of 4,000 passing yards — second longest in NFL history — ended in what tied for a career-low fantasy ranking (QB19). But don't blame Ryan. He had few weapons to work with, especially after Calvin Ridley was lost for the season. Ryan threw multiple TD passes in five of his first six games but then had just one multi- TD game after Ridley left for good. With few quality targets and a bad offensive line, Ryan went downfield on only 8.2 percent of his attempts after 12.6 percent in 2021, and despite a league- high 67.4 on-target percentage on attempts of 20-plus yards, he had only three TD passes (20th). Fortunately, the Falcons took pity on him and traded him to the Colts in March. With Indianapolis, Ryan has (slightly) better weapons to target in Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell, second-round speedster Alec Pierce and tight end Mo Alie-Cox. What's more, Jonathan Taylor is the league's best running back, and the Colts' offensive line is a massive upgrade over Atlanta's. Ryan adds no rushing stats, but his fantasy value should at least rebound toward the 2019-20 level that made him a functional QB2.

Ryan's 2020 season was remarkably similar to his 2019 season. His completions, attempts, yards, TDs and YPA were nearly the same, if not exactly the same. But despite league-highs of 626 attempts and 408 completions, Ryan finished only QB12 in fantasy scoring. That's largely because, just like the previous year when he finished QB11, he threw only 26 TD passes. Downfield passing was a problem most of the season. Ryan threw a league-high-tying six interceptions on attempts of 20-plus yards, with just four TDs, and his 12.1 YPA on those throws ranked 24th. Among QBs with at least 60 downfield attempts, only Drew Lock had fewer TD passes (and he was the only other QB who had more INTs than TDs). Dirk Koetter's attack got even weaker with Julio Jones missing seven games. Koetter's two-year stint as offensive coordinator is over, and Jones is gone, having been traded to Tennessee. New head coach Arthur Smith, formerly the Titans offensive coordinator, plans to run some of the same concepts as former Atlanta OC Kyle Shanahan and said his offense will play to Ryan's strengths. That likely means more play-action, which will allow Ryan to get more out of his ordinary arm. The Falcons gave Ryan help with 6-6 TE Kyle Pitts, the fourth overall pick in draft, who should contribute immediately, giving the veteran QB another option in addition to Calvin Ridley. Newcomer Mike Davis is also an effective pass catcher, and should improve a running game that gave Ryan zero help last season. That would help his efficiency, but Ryan's not likely to average 40-plus attempts again, which, combined with no rushing upside and the loss of Jones, puts him outside the top 15 of fantasy QBs.

Ryan couldn't match his dynamite 2018 last year, but he still had a decent fantasy season even though his touchdown passes fell by nine and his interceptions doubled, finishing 11th in QB fantasy scoring. That's what 600-plus attempts will do for you, especially when you lead the league in completions (408). While his bad-pass percentage was virtually unchanged from the previous season (16.4, fifth lowest), Ryan's interception rate jumped to 2.3 percent (20th) thanks to five picks on attempts longer than 20 yards (he had one interception on deep passes in 2018). Ryan's efficiency also back-slid, his YPA a six-year-low 7.3 (after 8.1 the previous season), as he faced a barrage of pressure — a league-high-tying 48 sacks. Injuries played a big role in that futility, and this year's O-line returns all five starters healthy. Not returning is tight end Austin Hooper and his 97 targets, but the Falcons replaced him with Hayden Hurst via trade. All-world wide receiver Julio Jones is back, as is Calvin Ridley, who missed the final three games of last season with an abdominal injury. The Falcons let Devonta Freeman walk, instead signing Todd Gurley and his bad knee to a low-risk, one-year contract. Gurley's workload will be managed, and he's not likely to get significantly more than the 184 rushes Freeman had last year, which means penciling in Ryan for another 600 attempts seems safe. Ryan has alternated good and very good seasons going back eight years. His fantasy ranking among quarterbacks, starting with 2012: 7, 15, 7, 19, 2, 15, 2, 11. That, of course, says nothing about what he will do this year, but the 35-year-old does not look done yet.

Ryan bounced back from a down 2017 with the second-best season of his career, and he wasn't far off from his 2016 MVP pace. Ryan finished top 3 in passing yards, TDs and INT rate and was fourth in completion percentage and passer rating. And while he had five more attempts per game than in 2017, his 8.1 YPA was the second highest of his career. After struggling on deep passes the previous season, Ryan rebounded for 14.3 YPA and a 112.0 passer rating on attempts longer than 20 yards. He also improved his red-zone TD rate by 10 percentage points, giving him eight more red-zone scores than the year before (23 to 15). Despite that success, offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian was fired. But rather than asking Ryan to adjust to a new system, the team will keep the same terminology with Dirk Koetter, who coached Ryan and the Falcons offense to much success in 2012-14 in the same job. As Tampa Bay's head coach last year, Koetter guided an aggressive, imbalanced offense that paced the league in both passing yards (5,358) and interceptions (26), though an inept Bucs defense was a big part of that equation. Changes also were made to an offensive line that allowed 42 sacks last season (eighth most), with the team using a pair of first-round picks on blockers. And with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu, Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman all back, Ryan again has plenty of weapons to unleash on opponents. Even if the Atlanta defense improves to the point of costing Ryan attempts, it shouldn't drastically curtail his fantasy output thanks to his usual impressive efficiency - his 16.1 bad pass percentage was fourth lowest in the league last season.

Ryan predictably regressed last season from his career year in 2016. His 2017, his first year with offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, looked a lot like his 2015, his first year with then-OC Kyle Shanahan. If Year 2 with Sark is to resemble Year 2 with Shanahan, Ryan will have to figure out the deep ball. The biggest regression came with his passing beyond 20 yards downfield, which saw his YPA cut in half, dropping from 18.5 to 9.3, and his passer rating losing more than 50 points, 133.1 to 76.8. The Falcons lacked big plays, totaling 14 fewer completions of 25-plus yards, and struggled in the red zone where Ryan's completion rate dropped from 66.0 percent in 2016 to 43.7 percent last year. Not that it was all his fault - the Falcons dropped a league-high 30 passes, and Sarkisian took a lot of heat for his play calling. But it all added up to nearly 850 fewer yards and 18 fewer TDs for Ryan on almost the same number of attempts. The Falcons drafted wide receiver Calvin Ridley in the first round to give Ryan another target in addition to Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, and Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are dangerous out of the backfield behind a good offensive line. Ryan's not likely to duplicate his career year, but there's room for growth from last season's relative disappointment.

Ryan won the MVP award last season and led the Falcons to the Super Bowl in a career year few saw coming. It took a season, but when he finally settled into offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan's system, he and the Atlanta passing game were all but unstoppable. Shanahan's up-tempo offense, often no huddle, was always on the attack as Ryan picked apart secondaries. His improvement from 2015 in downfield passing was remarkable. A year earlier, he attempted only 32 passes over 20 yards, completing a mere nine for 28.1 percent, 10.7 YPA and the 32ndranked passer rating (42.6) with a 1:4 TD:INT mark. Last season, he finished as the best deep passer, with a league-leading 133.1 rating, completing 47.3 percent of his 55 attempts (3rd) for a league-high 18.5 YPA and 9:0 TD:INT. In fact, the only other QB without an interception was Sam Bradford, who attempted just 38 passes of 21-plus yards. With Shanahan gone, Steve Sarkisian steps into the coordinator job. He plans to keep the scheme and terminology, but will his play calling be as effective as Shanahan's? The Falcons, though, return all of their key pieces from last year, including star wideout Julio Jones, who had foot surgery to correct the injury that nagged him last season.

Despite producing another impressive yardage total, Ryan struggled through an up-and-down 2015 campaign as he posted the worst TD:INT of his career and lowest QB rating since 2009. While Ryan pointed the finger at his own inability to adjust to new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan's scheme, the clear culprit was the lack of a consistently effective secondary receiving option, which left the passing game too predictable and too reliant on Julio Jones. The front office didn't totally ignore the problem but may not have done enough, signing former Bengals wide receiver Mohamed Sanu to replace the aging Roddy White and drafting Stanford tight end Austin Hooper in the third round. Ryan's strength as a QB remains his accuracy and quick release from the pocket, and his effectiveness on shorter routes played a big role in Devonta Freeman's emergence last season, but his ability to deliver a deep ball has improved over the last few years as well. The Falcons seem committed to becoming a more defensively-oriented team under coach Dan Quinn, which could eventually reduce Ryan's pass volume if it results in fewer shootouts and fewer big comebacks, but given the current roster he seems headed for his fifth consecutive season with 600 or more pass attempts.

Ryan finished fifth in passing yards last season, capping a profitable three-year run in offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter's aggressive attack. Under Koetter, Ryan averaged 631 attempts per year, second in the league, and had the fourth-most red-zone passes (240) in an offense that threw on 65.2 percent of its plays. But Koetter is out, and Kyle Shanahan is in this year as the new coordinator. Shanahan said he plans to run an up-tempo offense to take advantage of his playmakers' explosiveness, but that he also wants a balanced gameplan. What that means for Ryan remains to be seen. The last seven years as offensive coordinator for three teams, Shanahan topped 600 pass attempts just twice, though he had two other teams with at least 583 attempts. And of course, he never had a quarterback of Ryan's caliber. A more effective rushing attack — last year's ranked 24th in yards per game — might force more defenders in the box, which would help the passing game. But the Falcons might not need to throw as much if new head coach and defensive mastermind Dan Quinn fixes a unit that led the league in yards allowed last season. Even if Ryan sees fewer attempts, he has the weapons in Julio Jones and Roddy White to still put up quality numbers. The Falcons also drafted Justin Hardy, who broke the FBS record for most career receptions, to replace Harry Douglas in the slot.

Coming off of a down fantasy year and a rather shocking 4-12 season with Atlanta, Ryan looks like a good bargain opportunity in 2014 drafts. Disappointing as his struggles were, though, Ryan demonstrated that he has a very high floor in offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter's offense. Even with a 6.9 YPA and a touchdown percentage of just 4.0, Ryan somehow came away with 4,515 yards and 26 touchdowns. Although the retirement of future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez is a concern, the more important development is the return of No. 1 wide receiver Julio Jones, whose season-ending broken foot in Week 5 was the single greatest cause of Atlanta's collapse. The Falcons also secured some help for Ryan in the draft, selecting tackle Jake Matthews with the sixth overall pick and adding running back Devonta Freeman in the fourth round. Matthews should immediately be the team's best blocker, and Freeman will provide an upgrade over Jacquizz Rodgers soon enough. Ryan averaged 4,617 yards and 29 touchdowns through the air through his first two years in the Koetter system, so while he'll probably always be an interception problem (43 in the last three years), Ryan should provide middle-tier QB1 production in most formats.

With a redesigned offense, Ryan and the Falcons' passing game were at their best last season. Ryan attempted 615 passes, completing 68.6 percent of them for 4,719 yards and 32 touchdowns – all career highs. With Roddy White and Julio Jones on the outside and Tony Gonzalez returning for one more season, you can expect the pass-happy attack to continue. On top of that, the Falcons added running back Steven Jackson. That might sound like a negative, but Jackson isn't going to cut into Ryan's passing attempts. The veteran back can actually catch passes out of the backfield – something Michael Turner never did – and he'll keep the chains moving so that Ryan has more opportunities to find all of his playmakers. Ryan isn't a top running quarterback by any stretch, but he did scramble for 141 yards and a TD, so he has a small advantage in that department over pocket statues like Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. It's worth noting Ryan sprained the AC joint in his non-throwing shoulder during the NFC Championship game, but he's already made a full recovery and shouldn't be hampered heading into training camp.

Ryan finished with career highs of 4,177 yards and 29 touchdowns through the air last year while raising his passing average to 7.4 yards per attempt after consecutive years at 6.5. Even so, Ryan’s week-to-week value is still very matchup-sensitive as he has yet to show the ability to produce against good defenses or in challenging environments. Ryan threw for 20 touchdowns and three interceptions in nine games against New Orleans (twice), Tampa Bay (twice), Carolina (twice), Indianapolis, Minnesota and Jacksonville, but threw just four touchdowns and seven interceptions in six games against Chicago, Seattle, Green Bay, Detroit, Houston and the Giants. Ryan could take the next step in 2012 – he certainly has two very talented receivers in Roddy White and Julio Jones – but matchup issues are typically a reflection of enduring skill limitations rather than questions of timing or luck.

While Ryan’s average of 6.5 yards per pass attempt the last two years is quite unimpressive, there are reasons to expect improvement in 2011. First, he averaged 7.9 yards per attempt his rookie season, so we already know he’s capable of doing better than 6.5. Second, there’s a good chance Ryan is still developing as a quarterback, and he has improved his touchdown totals each year in the league – from 16 to 22 to 29. Third, Atlanta added Alabama wideout Julio Jones with the sixth overall pick, giving up two first-round picks, a second-round pick and two fourth-round picks to get him. Adding Jones not only gives Ryan another target, but it should make it a bit tougher for defenses to roll coverage toward Roddy White. Finally, Ryan’s eventual owners have to like the fact that he threw 571 passes last year – an average of 35.7 passes per game. If Ryan gets that many opportunities in 2011, expect him to do more with them than he did last year.

Ryan regressed in key areas in 2009. A toe injury cost him essentially three games, but he still threw 22 TD passes. His TD rate improved on a per-attempt basis. Ryan has upside given that he’s a still-developing player who thus has not likely flashed his peak ability. But the Falcons environment is weak. Roddy White is a very good receiver, but Michael Jenkins is quite borderline as the other starter. TE Tony Gonzalez is declining, but we just don’t know how fast. Michael Turner also adds next to nothing as a receiver, and his great running makes the Falcons more conservative on early downs. Presuming growth in Year 3, he should yield about 24 scoring strikes in a run-heavy offense. That’s a low-end fantasy starter and thus someone worthy of a middle round pick.

You can’t start an NFL career better than Ryan unless you’re Dan Marino. Ryan had a 7.9 YPA despite completing 61 percent of his passes, a little low by current standards. He was second in the NFL (behind Jake Delhomme) with 13 yards per completion (league average was 11.4). He was the best in the league in YPA on first down (9.64 on 118 attempts). That attempt total was relatively low and should increase dramatically this year, especially now with Tony Gonzalez in tow. The one area where Ryan was lacking, and we can reasonably attribute his deficiency to lack of experience, is red-zone efficiency. His TD-rate, one of every 7.1 red-zone attempts, was 33rd on our list of qualifiers. Again, Gonazalez, one of the best red-zone weapons ever and not evidencing any decline in ability last year at age 32, should help auger tremendous growth in this key fantasy area. Roddy White is a Pro Bowl-caliber weapon on the outside, and Michael Jenkins predictably showed signs of development last year when finally given an NFL-caliber distributor of the football. The offensive line is rock solid, as is the running game with Michael Turner. And remember, Jerious Norwood adds home-run skills as a screen and check-down option on third downs. Ryan’s YPA shows his TD upside as being in the 25-to-30 range, and you won’t need to pay more than a mid-round pick to get him as the primary starter in a matchup-driven QB tandem.

At press time, Redman was atop the depth chart, but the Falcons might well just play No. 3 overall pick Ryan right from the start. Who can blame them, as Redman was a reclamation project, and third-stringer Joey Harrington might be the worst QB in NFL history. Redman actually played decently in a 149-attempt sample, with a 7.2 YPA, 10 touchdowns and just five picks. But Redman only made the Falcons’ roster because of his connection to since departed coach Bobby Petrino for whom he played at Louisville and hadn’t thrown an NFL pass since 2003. And most of the shine on those stats were due to a Week 17 game (9.3 YPA, four TD, zero INT) against a Seahawks team that had locked up its playoff slot early. And two of Redman's other four significant-action games were against the Rams and Saints – both bottom five teams in YPA-allowed. We can rhapsodize about the grit and gamesmanship that Ryan showed at Boston College, but he’s faced a couple guys every week as good as every single player he'll see every single Sunday in the NFL. Yes, his guys are better, too. But only if he steps up and plays to his scouting report. Ignore the preseason, too, as teams play vanilla defenses and use their starters too sparingly for that to be an accurate barometer. On the plus side, new offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey did emphasize downfield, explosive passing in his heyday as Steelers offensive coordinator in the early part of the decade. And WR Roddy White is an emerging playmaker.