ADP Analysis: Comparing Post-Draft ADPs from Underdog, DraftKings, Drafters and FFPC

This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.

With the NFL Draft two weeks behind us, there's a nice sample to work with when looking at ADP on the most popular best ball sites. The medium-sized and smaller sites can have advantages, but their published ADP results right now seem to include many fantasy drafts that took place before the NFL Draft (which means a lot of the numbers will soon change drastically).

Underdog, DraftKings and Drafters get enough volume that their published ADP only includes the past few days, so in this article we'll restrict the comparison to those three sites, though I've included a chart at the bottom that also shows FFPC's ADP (note that FFPC awards 1.5 pts/rec to TEs and five points per 100 passing yards to QBs).

Roster/scoring differences to note:

1. Underdog is half PPR; DraftKings and Drafters are full PPR.
2. DK awards three-point bonuses at 100 rushing/receiving yards or 300 passing yards.
3. Drafters subtracts two points for an INT or lost fumble. DK subtracts one point. UD subtracts one for an INT or two for a lost fumble. 
4. UD's default is 18 rounds. On DK and Drafters, it's 20.

General ADP Trends

QBs Going Earlier on DraftKings (Especially in Rounds 2-4)

• Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow are all going earlier on DK (by at least 1.1 spots) compared to both UD and Drafters.
  • There's disagreement on QB5. It's Burrow on DK — by nearly four ADP spots — while Fields is going an average of five spots before Burrow on UD and nine spots before him on Drafters.
    • The bonuses on DK might partially explain this. Even Lamar Jackson has earned them at a lower rate than passing-yardage leaders like Mahomes, Allen and Burrow. Fields had three yardage bonuses in 15 games last year, while Burrow had five in 16 (and six in 16 the year before).
    • Hurts earned five bonuses in 15 regular-season games last year, FWIW
• The QB ADPs even out between sites in the middle rounds, but in the late rounds signal-callers again tend to go significantly earlier on DK (by about a round, sometimes even two).

WRs Going Later on DraftKings in Rounds 2-3

• ADPs for Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, DeVonta Smith and Deebo Samuel are at least 2.5 spots lower on DraftKings than both Underdog and Drafters
  • The above list comprises every WR with a DK ADP between the middle of Round 2 and end of Round 3.
• RB ADPs are the most similar between sites in the early rounds, and with many of the noticeable differences making obvious sense based on scoring (e.g. Austin Ekeler going later on UD because it's only half PPR).

RBs Going Later on DraftKings in Rounds 5-6 (and WRs Going Earlier)

• DK is the outlier again, with UD and Drafters more synced up in terms of how/when positions are valued.
• The guys we're dealing with here are mostly older RBs — Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon  — but the group also includes 24-year-old D'Andre Swift (DK: 55.3, UD: 68.8, DR: 69.5)
  • In the same range we see a bunch of WRs (Christian Watson, Terry McLaurin, Jerry Jeudy, Mike Williams, Michael Pittman) going significantly later on DK than the other two sites.
  • If you like to zig when your opponents zag, you'll probably want to draft a lot of WRs on DraftKings between the middle of Round 2 through Round 6/7 (where things start to even out again, kind of).

Relative Values on Each Site

Underdog

Relatively Underpriced on UD

• QBs Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff, Mac Jones, C.J. Stroud
• RBs Josh Jacobs, Kenneth Walker, D'Onta Foreman
• WRs Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, K.J. Osborn, Isaiah Hodgins
• TEs Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, Mike Gesicki

I tried to make note of exceptions where it isn't an obvious matter of the difference between UD's half-PPR and the other sites' use of full PPR. Jacobs, Walker, Foreman and Davis are guys you'd probably expect to be cheaper on the full-PPR sites, but instead they're cheapest on UD. 

Relatively Overpriced on UD

• QBs Anthony Richardson, Trey Lance
• RBs Javonte Williams, Chase Brown, Kendre Miller
• WRs Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Calvin Ridley, Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jonathan Mingo, Jayden Reed, Nathaniel Dell
• TEs Greg Dulcich, Juwan Johnson

Underdog drafters are generally aggressive taking WRs and seem especially optimistic about the rookie class (compared to peers on DK, and to some extent Drafters as well).

DraftKings 

Relatively Underpriced on DK

• QBs Justin Fields, Trey Lance & Sam Howell
• RBs Zach Charbonnet, Alexander Mattison & Rashaad Penny
• WRs Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Treylon Burks, Jahan Dotson, Rashod Bateman, Jameson Williams, Elijah Moore, Jakobi Meyers, Skyy Moore, Rashid Shaheed, Khalil Shakir & Tyquan Thornton
• TEs David Njoku, Pat Freiermuth, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Irv Smith, Trey McBride

RBs, QBs and TEs tend to go earlier on DK than the other sites, while WRs go later even though it's a full-PPR setup. DK drafters seem a bit more anxious about RB committees and/or are more confident in well-established veteran starters (like Cook and Mixon).

Relatively Overpriced on DK

QBs Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brock Purdy

RB Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, D'Andre Swift, Alvin Kamara, Brian Robinson, Jerick McKinnon, D'Onta Foreman, Raheem Mostert, Cordarrelle Patterson

WRs Odell Beckham, Allen Lazard, John Metchie

TE George Kittle, Darren Waller, Evan Engram, Taysom Hill, Michael Mayer, Zach Ertz

I mentioned above that WRs generally go later on DK, so it's worth making note of the three exceptions above -- even if there are a number of different conclusions one might draw (I don't plan to draft Beckham or Lazard much on any site and am not interested in Metchie at the DK price).

Drafters

Relatively Underpriced on Drafters

• QBs Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love
• RBs Dalvin Cook, Dameon Pierce, D'Andre Swift, Ezekiel Elliott, Isiah Pacheco, Rachaad White, Alvin Kamara, Javonte Williams, Brian Robinson, Raheem Mostert, Ezekiel Elliott, Cordarrelle Patterson
• WRs DeVonta Smith, Allen Lazard, Adam Thielen, John Metchie, Mecole Hardman, Curtis Samuel
• TE George Kittle, Dalton Kincaid, Cole Kmet, Greg Dulcich, Taysom Hill, Michael Mayer, Zach Ertz

Players on Drafters go even further than those on Underdog in terms of leaning toward WRs and away from RBs in Rounds 5-9. Each of the RBs listed above goes about a round or round and a half earlier on DK and a few picks earlier on UD.

Relatively Overpriced on Drafters

• QBs Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones
• RBs Rhamondre Stevenson, David Montgomery, Samaje Perine, Rashaad Penny, Damien Harris, Antonio Gibson, Jaylen Warren, Kenneth Gainwell, Tyjae Spears
• WRs Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett, Marquise Brown, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Rondale Moore, 
• TEs Pat Freiermuth, Tyler Conklin

RBs in the 100-150 overall range tend to go earlier on Drafters, which opens up more value at other positions in Rounds 10-13.

The Chart - May 11 ADPs 

• Delta columns (Δ) compare ADP from one site to the average ADP from two others. This applies to DK, UD and Drafters, while FFPC is left out of those calculations.
  • The 'DK Δ' column, for example, only compares DK ADP's with those from Underdog and Drafters (not FFPC). Part of the reason for this is that the FFPC numbers I found still seem to include a lot of fantasy drafts from April. The other reason is that FFPC uses TE premium scoring (1.5 PPR) and 20 passing yards/pt (instead of 25). The TE premium, in particular, has a huge and mostly predictable impact on ADP results.
  • FFPC's delta column compares to all three of the other sites, albeit with the limitation mentioned above. (Some may find it interesting nonetheless.)
• All ADPs of 230+ have been adjusted to 230. This helps to account for differences in ADP methodologies between sites, and avoids clogging up the delta columns below with borderline-irrelevant players when you use the sort function to see who is relatively cheapest/priciest on each site.