NFL Game Previews: Ravens-Steelers Matchups

Baltimore (+4) at Pittsburgh, o/u 45.0 – Wednesday, 3:40 p.m. EST

Well, let's just pretend this game will actually happen this week. The Ravens' COVID-19 situation remains dire as I write this with 15 players on reserve just from our depth chart listings, from Lamar Jackson to long snapper Morgan Cox. Whether two extra days is enough time to get the bulk of those guys cleared through the protocols remains to be seen, but it might not matter if the Steelers are dealing with a situation of their own. There's no confirmation yet, but James Conner might have tested positive along with a member of the coaching staff, and if a Pittsburgh outbreak begins just as Baltimore's is dying down, the league might as well just move this game to Week 18 now. If the game does happen, the Ravens will be looking to stay in playoff contention while the Steelers will be gunning for the '72 Dolphins, with Kansas City right on their heels for the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they falter. The first meeting back in Week 8 was a seesaw affair that saw three lead changes in the final 20-odd minutes with the Steelers finally coming out on top, but that's typical of this rivalry. Whether history, recent or otherwise, has much bearing on this game (when it finally gets played) isn't exactly a sure bet, though.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: QB Jackson (out, COVID), RB J.K. Dobbins (questionable, COVID), RB Mark Ingram (questionable, COVID), TE Mark Andrews (questionable, thigh), C Matt Skura (questionable, COVID), DE Calais Campbell (out, COVID), OLB Matt Judon (questionable, ankle), CB Jimmy Smith (questionable, ankle)

PIT injuries: RB Conner (out, COVID), RB Jaylen Samuels (questionable, quad), DE Stephon Tuitt (questionable, COVID), CB Joe Haden (questionable, knee)

BAL DFS targets: Marquise Brown (PIT 25th in DVOA vs. WR1)

PIT DFS targets: Steelers DST (first in sack rate, first in INT%, first in takeaways)

BAL DFS fades: Robert Griffin (PIT first in passing DVOA, first in QB rating against, third in passing yards per game allowed), Gus Edwards (PIT sixth in rushing DVOA, t-first in rushing TDs allowed), Mark Andrews (PIT first in DVOA vs. TE), Ravens DST (PIT first in sack rate allowed, t-third in giveaways)

PIT DFS fades: Benny Snell (BAL fourth in rushing DVOA), JuJu Smith-Schuster (BAL first in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: PIT is seventh in red-zone conversions at 69.4 percent; BAL is t-25th in red-zone defense at 69.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 BAL, average score 23-22 BAL, average margin of victory seven points

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 20s, 12-14 mph wind, 50-75 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Edwards manages 50 yards. Robert Griffin throws for less than 200 yards but does hit Brown for a TD. Anthony McFarland leads the PIT backfield with 60 yards, but Snell punches in a short score. Ben Roethlisberger throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, finding Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. Steelers, 27-10

Seattle at Philadelphia (+5), o/u 50.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

If you squint hard enough, these teams aren't so different. Both are looking for a win to try to regain first place in their divisions. Both have mobile quarterbacks who play like the game is riding on their shoulders, and both have coaches who would probably rather just run the ball 30 times. And, uhh, they both have shades of green as a prominent color in their uniforms. The Seahawks ("action green") had lost three of four before last week's win over the Cardinals, but they're still probably the favorites to take down the NFC West given their slate over the next month — while the Rams and Cards face each other and the Patriots, Seattle gets three games against NFC East opponents plus the Jets. Chris Carson might be back in the lineup as well, and while letting Russell Wilson cook has been great for the offense, the defense could use a few more long, grinding drives to keep them off the field. Whether that's even possible behind a banged-up offensive line is another question. As for the Eagles ("midnight green"), their only non-division win was against a Niners squad decimated by injuries, and they won't be so lucky here. Carson Wentz still can't get out of his own way, and the one bright spot on the season, Travis Fulgham, has been marginalized by extra defensive attention the last two games. Playing the Seahawks secondary can cure those sorts of ills, but Wentz's 14:14 TD:INT has people wondering when Jalen Hurts will get a look as more than just a gadget player. Maybe leaning more heavily on Miles Sanders and his 5.7 YPC is the answer, both for keeping the ball out of Wilson's hands and Wentz's.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RB Carson (questionable, foot), RB Travis Homer (questionable, knee), WR David Moore (questionable, hip), LG Mike Iupati (questionable, back), C Ethan Pocic (questionable, concussion), RG Damien Lewis (questionable, hip), RT Brandon Shell (questionable, ankle), CB Shaquill Griffin (questionable, hamstring)

PHI injuries: RB Boston Scott (questionable, abdomen), C Jason Kelce (questionable, elbow), RT Lane Johnson (out, ankle), DE Derek Barnett (questionable, knee), LB Alex Singleton (questionable, ankle)

SEA DFS targets: DK Metcalf $7,900 DK / $8,400 FD (PHI 28th in DVOA vs. WR2, 30th in DVOA vs. deep throws), Seahawks DST $2,500 DK / $4,200 FD (PHI 32nd in sack rate allowed, 30th in giveaways)

PHI DFS targets: Carson Wentz $5,600 DK / $7,600 FD (32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 28th in YPA allowed)

SEA DFS fades: none

PHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA is second in red-zone conversions at 77.8 percent; PHI is t-19th in red-zone defense at 65.6 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 60s, 7-12 mph wind, 25-55 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Carson leads the SEA backfield with 80 combined yards and a TD. Wilson throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Metcalf (who tops 100 yards) and Jacob Hollister. Sanders picks up 70 yards. Wentz throws for 240 yards and two TDs, finding Fulgham and Alshon Jeffery, but he also throws a pick-six to Jamal Adams. Seahawks, 31-17

Miami at N.Y. Jets (+7), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Dolphins turned in a dud in Denver last week, preventing them from moving into a tie for the AFC East lead with the idle Bills. The offense was doing so little, Tua Tagovailoa got benched in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who proceeded to do Fitzpatrick things (one scoring drive, one red-zone INT). Tua's now dealing with a thumb injury on his throwing hand as well, so while coach Brian Flores insists the rookie is still his starter, we may not have seen the last of Fitzmagic in Miami. If he's healthy enough to play though, a matchup against the Jets' pitiful secondary should help Tagovailoa re-solidify his hold on the No. 1 job. Gang Green is still winless, and its remaining schedule features only one team currently below .500 (a road game in Week 17 against the Patriots), so the top pick in the 2021 draft seems close to sewn up. Sam Darnold should be back Sunday, but his numbers this season have been worse than Joe Flacco's nearly across the board, so that won't necessarily provide a boost for the offense. Darnold should at least have all three of his top wideout options healthy and available, something he didn't have earlier in the year, so he might be able to salvage his trade value down the stretch.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: QB Tagovailoa (questionable, thumb), RB Salvon Ahmed (out, shoulder), WR Jakeem Grant (questionable, hamstring), RG Solomon Kindley (questionable, foot)

NYJ injuries: RB La'Mical Perine (IR, ankle), WR Breshad Perriman (questionable, shoulder), RT George Fant (doubtful, ankle), CB Bless Austin (IR, neck)

MIA DFS targets: Tua Tagovailoa $5,900 DK / $6,800 FD (NYJ 32nd in passing DVOA, 29th in QB rating against, 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 29th in YPA allowed), DeVante Parker $5,900 DK / $6,500 FD (NYJ 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Jakeem Grant $3,700 DK / $4,800 FD (NYJ 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

NYJ DFS targets: Ty Johnson $4,000 DK / $4,500 FD (MIA 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

MIA DFS fades: none

NYJ DFS fades: Breshad Perriman $4,200 DK / $5,900 FD (MIA second in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: NYJ are 31st in third-down conversions at 32.3 percent; MIA is second in third-down defense at 33.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 MIA, average score 21-19 MIA, average margin of victory 11 points. MIA has won four of the last five meetings, including a 24-0 shutout in Week 6

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Myles Gaskin returns and leads the MIA backfield with 70 combined yards. Tagovailoa throws for 260 yards and two TDs to Parker, who tops 100 yards. Frank Gore grinds out 50 yards. Darnold throws for a season-high 240 yards and a touchdown to Jamison Crowder, but he also tosses two picks, one of which Xavien Howard returns to the house. Dolphins, 27-10 

Arizona at New England (+2.5), o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Last week's loss to the Seahawks dropped the Cards to third in the ultra-competitive NFC West, but they're still in good shape for a wild-card spot — assuming Kyler Murray's shoulder woes aren't serious. Should anything happen to Murray, the dropoff to former Winnipeg Blue Bomber Chris Streveler is enormous, and all bets would be off for Arizona's playoff chances. He escaped the final injury report, though, so presumably he's OK. While the chaos in Baltimore is drawing all the attention, the Cards also have a COVID-19 situation of their own developing, though so far Larry Fitzgerald is the highest profile player to produce a positive test. As for the Patriots, they're 4-6 and have five teams at least two games ahead of them in the wild-card chase, and the team's 11-season postseason streak is all but done, as is their 17-season streak with double-digit wins. Cam Newton's 4:7 TD:INT through nine games seems like a relic of the 1950s, not something produced by a modern NFL quarterback, and the defense just can't seem to sustain any success. Even with Stephon Gilmore back in action last week, they got lit up by Deshaun Watson. Murray isn't at Watson's level yet as a passer, especially if he's not 100 percent healthy, but he doesn't need to be given how New England's secondary has struggled this season. The bigger question is whether Seattle figured out how to slow him down on the ground last week, giving Bill Belichick some ideas, or whether Murray was just avoiding extra contact.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: WR Fitzgerald (out, COVID)

NE injuries: RB Rex Burkhead (out, knee), WR N'Keal Harry (questionable, shoulder), LG Joe Thuney (questionable, ankle), RG Shaq Mason (questionable, calf), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, groin), CB Gilmore (questionable, hand)

ARI DFS targets: Kyler Murray $8,200 DK / $9,100 FD (NE 31st in passing DVOA, 32nd in YPA allowed), Chase Edmonds $5,300 DK / $5,800 FD (NE 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB), DeAndre Hopkins $8,100 DK / $8,500 FD (NE 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)

NE DFS targets: Damiere Byrd $4,100 DK / $5,400 FD (ARI 26th in DVOA vs. WR2)

ARI DFS fades: Dan Arnold $2,900 DK / $4,500 FD (NE second in DVOA vs. TE)

NE DFS fades: none

Key stat: ARI is third in red-zone conversions at 74.3 percent; NE is t-16th in red-zone defense at 62.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kenyan Drake leads the ARI backfield with 80 combined yards and a touchdown, while Edmonds adds 60 scrimmage yards and a receiving score. Murray throws for 260 yards and a second TD to Hopkins while running for 40 yards and a touchdown of his own. Damien Harris bangs out 70 yards. Newton throws for 220 yards and a TD to Byrd while also running in a score. Cardinals, 28-20

Carolina (+4) at Minnesota, o/u 51.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Both these teams are in similar situations, two wins back of a wild-card spot with little hope of winning their divisions. The Panthers snapped a five-game losing streak last week with their shutout of the Lions, but given how poorly Carolina's defense had been playing the month prior, that result seemed to owe more to Detroit's absences on offense than anything else. Their own offense is getting healthier — Teddy Bridgewater is back under center and, more important, Christian McCaffrey should return after the team's Week 13 bye. It's no coincidence that CMac was in the lineup for two of the three games this year in which they scored 30 or more points. The Vikings flat out blew it last week against the Cowboys to snap a three-games winning streak, allowing a season-high 180 rushing yards even with Ezekiel Elliot working behind a makeshift offensive line, and if they fall just short of the postseason, that's the one they're going to regret. Dalvin Cook, at least, continues to leave it all on the table, averaging 187.5 scrimmage yards and nearly two TDs over the last four games, but the passing game will probably be missing Adam Thielen (COVID), who had four scores of his own in the last two games. Justin Jefferson has been impressive as Minnesota's No. 2 wideout, though, and Carolina doesn't exactly have a shutdown corner the rookie will need to worry about.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: RB McCaffrey (questionable, shoulder), LT Russell Okung (questionable, calf), RG John Miller (questionable, knee), LB Tahir Whitehead (questionable, ribs), CB Donte Jackson (doubtful, toe)

MIN injuries: WR Thielen (questionable, COVID), TE Irv Smith (doubtful, groin), RG Ezra Cleveland (out, ankle)

CAR DFS targets: Robby Anderson $6,100 DK / $6,400 FD (MIN 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

MIN DFS targets: Dalvin Cook $9,500 DK / $11,000 FD (CAR 24th in YPC allowed, 27th in rushing TDs allowed, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

CAR DFS fades: none

MIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR is 21st in third-down conversions at 40.5 percent; MIN is fourth in third-down defense at 36.2 percent

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Mike Davis gains 100 combined yards and a TD. Bridgewater throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, both to Anderson (who tops 100 yards). Cook continues his rampage with 140 scrimmage yards and a score. Kirk Cousins throws for 280 yards and TDs to Jefferson and Kyle Rudolph. Vikings, 30-24

Cleveland at Jacksonville (+6.5), o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

After a three-game homestand in which Lake Erie dumped the worst weather possible on their heads, you'll have to forgive the Browns if they're secretly happy to be on the road in Florida this week. At 7-3, they're in good shape to claim one of the AFC's wild-card spots and end the franchise's 17-season playoff drought, though just finishing with a record above .500 for the first time since 2007 would be an accomplishment. (Fun trivia: Houston interim coach Romeo Crennel was at the helm in Cleveland for that 10-6 season, and the Browns gave up 115 scrimmage yards to some kid named Frank Gore in a Week 17 win over the 49ers that still left them short of the postseason on tiebreakers. They did not, however, face Offensive Rookie of the Year Adrian Peterson.) The running game continues to be their bread and butter, as Nick Chubb's posted back-to-back 100-yard performances since returning to action despite Kareem Hunt still seeing double-digit touches in both games. As for the Jags, they're cruising toward the second overall pick in the 2021 draft, though the Joe Burrow-less Bengals could make a late push for that slot if they aren't careful. Doug Marrone's taking no chances, though — with Gardner Minshew apparently not quite yet ready to play again and Jake Luton having demonstrated his limitations in three starts, Marrone's turning to Mike Glennon this week. That's probably not great news for the Jacksonville passing game, as there's a reason Glennon's with his fifth organization in five years, but the last thing this team needs is a shocking upset against a defense that will be missing its two best players.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: RG Wyatt Teller (questionable, calf), DE Myles Garrett (out, COVID), CB Denzel Ward (out, calf)

JAC injuries: QB Minshew (questionable, thumb), WR DJ Chark (out, ribs), WR Chris Conley (out, hip), LG Andrew Norwell (out, arm), K Chase McLaughlin (out, COVID), DE Josh Allen (IR, knee), CB Sidney Jones (out, Achilles)

CLE DFS targets: Baker Mayfield $5,300 DK / $6,900 FD (JAC 30th in passing DVOA, 28th in QB rating against, 29th in passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed, 29th in TD% allowed)

JAC DFS targets: Collin Johnson $3,000 DK / $4,600 FD (CLE 25th in DVOA vs. WR3)

CLE DFS fades: none

JAC DFS fades: Keelan Cole $3,600 DK / $5,300 FD (CLE fifth in DVOA vs. WR1), Laviska Shenault $3,300 DK / $5,000 FD (CLE fourth in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: JAC is 18th in red-zone conversions at 61.3 percent; CLE is t-ninth in red-zone defense at 58.5 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Chubb rumbles for 110 yards and a score, while Hunt adds 60 combined yards. Mayfield throws for 250 yards and three TDs, finding Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. James Robinson answers with 120 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Glennon throws for a surprising 270 yards and TDs to Johnson and James O'Shaughnessy to keep things close. Browns, 34-28

Tennessee (+3.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

With the Colts having won the first meeting between these teams a couple weeks ago, the Titans desperately need a victory if they want to have any real chance at the AFC South crown. They did bounce back in strong fashion in Baltimore, with Derrick Henry scoring his second game-winning overtime touchdown of the season, but solving the Indianapolis riddle remains tough for this club, especially with a banged-up offensive line. The Colts, meanwhile, won in overtime last week as well, giving them four victories in their last five games. The offense has been humming, scoring at least 31 points in all four wins, and the young guns might finally be taking the lead — Jonathan Taylor re-kindled the hopes of fantasy GMs worldwide with 114 scrimmage yards against Green Bay, while Michael Pittman has turned 18 targets into a 14-223-1 line the last three weeks. Philip Rivers is dealing with a toe injury, but it's not like he can get less mobile.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: WR Adam Humphries (out, concussion), LG Rodger Saffold (questionable, ankle), C Ben Jones (questionable, knee), CB Adoree' Jackson (out. knee)

IND injuries: QB Rivers (questionable, toe), WR Zach Pascal (questionable, knee), LG Quenton Nelson (questionable, back), C Ryan Kelly (questionable, neck), DT DeForest Buckner (out, COVID), LB Bobby Okereke (out, ankle), S Khari Willis (questionable, ribs)

TEN DFS targets: Cameron Batson $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (IND 23rd in DVOA vs. WR3)

IND DFS targets: Mo Alie-Cox $2,700 DK / $4,800 FD (TEN 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

TEN DFS fades: Derrick Henry $7,900 DK / $8,300 FD (IND fifth in rushing DVOA, third in YPC allowed), Corey Davis $4,900 DK / $6,000 FD (IND first in DVOA vs. WR2), Titans DST $2,400 DK / $3,500 FD (30th in sack rate, IND second in sack rate allowed)

IND DFS fades: none

Key stat: IND is t-28th in third-down conversions at 37.5 percent; TEN is 32nd in third-down defense at 54.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 IND, average score 27-23 IND, average margin of victory 11 points. IND has won four of the last five meetings, including a 34-17 victory in Week 10, and four of the last five meetings have been decided by at least 14 points

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Henry runs for 90 yards and a touchdown. Ryan Tannehill throws for 240 yards and TDs to A.J. Brown and Batson. Taylor leads the IND backfield with 70 yards, but it's Nyheim Hines who scores. Rivers throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Alie-Cox. Colts, 23-21

N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati (+6), o/u 43.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Technically the Giants are third in the NFC East coming into this one, but does it really matter? I fully expect all four teams to head into the final weekend with five wins apiece, setting up some "high-stakes" Week 17 showdown nonsense to determine which gets to lose at home to Tom Brady in the first round of the playoffs. That would require two more victories for the G-Men before then, and this should be one. Looking at their remaining schedule ... err, don't ask me where the other one comes from. Daniel Jones has a healthy receiving crew, though, and Wayne Gallman has steadied the backfield, scoring five rushing TDs in four games since taking over as the lead back. In fact on paper, New York has the most balanced roster in the division, which ought to count for something. The jury is still out on Joe Judge (sorry, I've been waiting all season for a chance to use that one and it really doesn't seem likely to come up naturally), so whether he can turn those pieces into a postseason berth remains to be seen. The Bengals lost Joe Burrow last week, and the severity of his knee injury puts his status for Week 1 next season in some jeopardy. In his place, Zac Taylor will give Brandon Allen a shot, because when you're only playing for draft position, quarterback is exactly the position you want to experiment at. To be fair, I actually thought Allen had decent tools when he was drafted in 2016, and Taylor knows what Ryan Finley can (and mostly can't) do already. Joe Mixon also remains sidelined and is now hoping to return in a couple weeks, leaving the backfield in the lackluster hands of Giovani Bernard and Samaje Perine.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: K Graham Gano (questionable, COVID)

CIN injuries: QB Burrow (IR, knee), RB Bernard (questionable, concussion)

NYG DFS targets: Golden Tate $3,500 DK / $5,100 FD (CIN 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

CIN DFS targets: A.J. Green $3,600 DK / $5,300 FD (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

NYG DFS fades: none

CIN DFS fades: Tee Higgins $4,700 DK / $6,200 FD (NYG fourth in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: CIN is 27th in red-zone conversions at 52.9 percent; NYG are sixth in red-zone defense at 54.1 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Gallman bangs out 60 yards and a score. Jones throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Tate while running in a TD of his own. Bernard manages 60 combined yards while Perine vultures a short touchdown. Allen throws for 230 yards and a TD to Green, and Germaine Pratt scoops up an Evan Engram fumble and takes it to the house to keep things close. Giants, 27-24

L.A. Chargers (+5.5) at Buffalo, o/u 53.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Bolts' ability to play up or down to the level of their competition every week remains one of the few constants in the NFL. Facing the defending champs with a rookie QB making his first career start? No problem, they'll take Kansas City to overtime. Facing the winless Jets? No problem, they'll build up a big first-half lead before barely hanging on after letting Joe Flacco stage a comeback. It's all the same to them. The Chargers have only played one game all season where the outcome was decided by more than a single score, and while you might think that makes their 3-7 record deceiving, they've probably earned it. Things are looking up on the health front, as Joey Bosa returned to action last week and Austin Ekeler could be back in Buffalo, but that's not going to change the essential nature of this squad. The Bills remain on top in the AFC East at 7-3 as they look for their first division title since Jim Kelly was under center. Seriously — it's been 25 years since Buffalo wore that crown. Coming out of their bye, they'd been doing just fine, winning three consecutive before that stunning last-second loss in Arizona on the Hail Murray. Destiny continues to call Josh Allen to become the new Kelly, as he's already set a career high in TD passes and is 219 passing yards away from doing the same in that category, and Stefon Diggs is headed for a better statistical season than Andre Reed ever had. What the offense is lacking is a Thurman Thomas, as neither Devin Singletary nor Zack Moss have done much this year. In fact, Allen has more rushing and receiving TDs than the two of them combined. Maybe he's his own triplet.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: RB Kalen Ballage (questionable, ankle), LB Kyzir White (out, COVID), CB Casey Hayward (out, groin)

BUF injuries: WR John Brown (out, ankle)

LAC DFS targets: Keenan Allen $8,000 DK / $8,200 FD (BUF 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)

BUF DFS targets: Cole Beasley $5,500 DK / $5,400 FD (LAC 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

LAC DFS fades: none

BUF DFS fades: none

Key stat: BUF is third in third-down conversions at 50.0 percent; LAC are 13th in third-down defense at 40.0 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 40s, 10-12 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ekeler suits up and zips for 110 yards and a touchdown. Justin Herbert throws for 300 yards and TDs to Keenan Allen (who tops 100 yards) and Hunter Henry. Moss leads the BUF backfield with 60 yards and a score. Allen throws for 280 yards and TDs to Beasley and Diggs while running for 40 yards and a touchdown of his own. Bills, 31-27 

Las Vegas at Atlanta (+3), o/u 55.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Raiders came up just short in their attempt to sweep the season series from Kansas City, but playing two close games against the champs is a strong sign that Jon Gruden's squad is playoff caliber — a big step forward for a club that's only made the postseason once in the last 17 seasons. The offense is proving to be not just potent, scoring 31 points or more in three consecutive games and six of 10 in 2020, but flexible, as it's racked up touchdowns by leaning heavily on Josh Jacobs, and by having Derek Carr let it fly. That ability to adapt could make them dangerous if they're still alive in January. The Falcons are coming off their worst offensive showing of the year in New Orleans, and while the team has played better since Raheem Morris became interim coach, they still have yet to beat a team with a winning record. Todd Gurley's in the shop for his annual knee problem, but at 3.7 yards per carry, he hasn't exactly been a difference-maker in the backfield, and Brian Hill, Ito Smith or even Qadree Ollison can probably do about as well with the same volume. Julio Jones also isn't 100 percent, which might be the more worrying issue, and even tight end Hayden Hurst is banged up. It's not ideal circumstances for Matt Ryan to rebound, but his four most productive performances this season have all come indoors. Then again, he was playing in a dome when he got stuffed in a locker by the Saints last week too.

The Skinny

LV injuries: RT Trent Brown (out, COVID), DE Clelin Ferrell (questionable, COVID), LB Cory Littleton (questionable, COVID)

ATL injuries: RB Gurley (out, knee), WR Jones (questionable, hamstring), TE Hurst (questionable, ankle), DE Dante Fowler (questionable, hamstring)

LV DFS targets: Derek Carr $5,700 DK / $7,100 FD (ATL 30th in QB rating against, 31st in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed), Darren Waller $6,000 DK / $7,100 FD (ATL 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

ATL DFS targets: Brian Hill $4,000 DK / $5,100 FD (LV 32nd in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing TDs allowed)

LV DFS fades: none

ATL DFS fades: Hayden Hurst $3,900 DK / $5,500 FD (LV third in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: LV is t-16th in red-zone conversions at 61.5 percent; ATL is 31st in red-zone defense at 75.8 percent

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop Jacobs gallops for 90 yards and a TD. Carr throws for 310 yards and three scores, hitting Waller, Nelson Agholor and Henry Ruggs. Hill leads the ATL backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown. Ryan throws for 270 yards and a TD to Calvin Ridley, but a Nick Kwiatkoski pick-six ices the game. Raiders, 35-23

San Francisco (+7) at L.A. Rams, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The 49ers finally got their bye last week, but it didn't really help their overall health situation much. Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle and Nick Bosa remain on IR, while a round of COVID-19 might keep Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams off the field. At 4-6 and losers of three consecutive, they're fading fast in the NFC West, and a couple of December games against NFC East opponents won't be enough to save them. The Rams are headed in the opposite direction, coming off big wins over the Bucs and Seahawks, and Aaron Donald and the defense continue to lead the way. They've held the opposition to less than 20 points six times in 10 games, putting them No. 2 in the league in scoring defense, and frankly it's really seven games if you include the loss to the Dolphins in which half of Miami's points came from its defense and special teams. The passing game might also be finding itself just in time for the stretch run. Jared Goff has topped 300 yards in three consecutive games, and he has most of his main targets healthy. San Francisco could get Richard Sherman back for this one, but that's probably not going to be enough to slow down Goff.

The Skinny

SF injuries: RB Tevin Coleman (out, knee), WR Aiyuk (out, COVID), TE Jordan Reed (questionable, illness), LT Trent Williams (questionable, COVID), RG Tom Compton (out, undisclosed), DT Javon Kinlaw (questionable, COVID), LB Dre Greenlaw (questionable, illness)

LAR injuries: TE Tyler Higbee (questionable, elbow)

SF DFS targets: Deebo Samuel $5,400 DK / $6,000 FD (LAR 20th in DVOA vs. WR1)

LAR DFS targets: Josh Reynolds $4,300 DK / $5,800 FD (SF 31st in DVOA vs. deep throws)

SF DFS fades: Nick Mullens $5,200 DK / $6,600 FD (LAR second in QB rating against, second in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, first in TD% allowed), Richie James $3,500 DK / $5,100 FD (LAR third in DVOA vs. WR2)

LAR DFS fades: Cooper Kupp $6,400 DK / $6,700 FD (SF third in DVOA vs. WR1), Gerald Everett $3,300 DK / $4,700 FD (SF fourth in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: SF is 16th in third-down conversions at 42.4 percent; LAR are fifth in third-down defense at 37.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 SF. average score 24-24, average margin of victory 13 points. SF has won three straight meetings

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Raheem Mostert returns and leads the SF backfield with 60 yards. Mullens throws for 240 yards and TDs to Samuel and Jerick McKinnon but gets picked off twice. Darrell Henderson leads the LAR backfield with 80 yards and a score. Goff throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Reynolds and Robert Woods. Rams, 30-17

New Orleans at Denver (+5.5), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Saints remain in the driver's seat in the NFC South thanks to their season sweep of the Bucs, but they can't afford to slip up now. Their seven-game winning streak is the longest in the league this side of Pittsburgh, and it's no coincidence that the defense hasn't given up 30 points once during that stretch, or more than 13 points in any of the last three victories. That kind of cushion makes it a lot easier on Taysom Hill as he fills in for Drew Brees, and while he maybe didn't change anyone's mind about his long-term viability as a passer with last week's effort, two rushing scores made his numbers through the air somewhat moot. The big question from a fantasy perspective is whether Alvin Kamara's sudden disappearance as a receiver will continue as long as Hill is under center — if he's not getting targets and has extra competition for rushing TDs, the bottom is going to fall out of his value. At 4-6, the Broncos are just playing out the string and looking for chances to play spoiler for potential playoff teams, the way they did against the Dolphins last week, but that win was mainly thanks to Bradley Chubb and the pass rush. Drew Lock has not been good since returning from his shoulder injury, completing 54.8 percent of his passes with a 6.7 YPA and 6:11 TD:INT over the last six games, and his penchant for picks is ominous against New Orleans' opportunistic squad. There's always a chance the Saints stumble outdoors and at altitude, but the playing conditions might be the only advantage Denver has in this one.

The Skinny

NO injuries: LG Andrus Peat (out, concussion) 

DEN injuries: WR Jerry Jeudy (questionable, ankle), RG Graham Glasgow (questionable, leg), RT Demar Dotson (questionable, calf), CB Bryce Callahan (questionable, foot)

NO DFS targets: Saints DST $3,800 DK / $4,800 FD (fifth in INT%, DEN 32nd in INT% allowed, 32nd in giveaways)

DEN DFS targets: KJ Hamler $3,500 DK / $5,100 FD (NO 24th in DVOA vs. WR3)

NO DFS fades: none

DEN DFS fades: Drew Lock $5,100 DK / $6,700 FD (NO fifth in passing DVOA), Melvin Gordon $5,200 DK / $6,800 FD (NO second in rushing DVOA, second in YPC allowed, second in rushing yards per game allowed, t-first in rushing TDs allowed)

Key stat: DEN is 27th in third-down conversions at 38.1 percent; NO is 18th in third-down defense at 41.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-30s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Kamara piles up 120 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Hill throws for 210 yards and a second touchdown to Adam Trautman while running in a score of his own. Gordon leads the DEN backfield with 50 yards. Lock throws for 240 yards and a TD to Hamler but gets picked off twice. Saints, 28-10

Kansas City at Tampa Bay (+3.5), o/u 56.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

With the Kansas City Champs having gotten their revenge against the one foe that defeated them earlier this season, they can turn their attention toward trying to catch the Steelers for that one first-round bye in this season's playoff format. It won't be easy, as this is the first of three potentially tough road games (the Dolphins and Saints also await in December) on their remaining schedule, but as Andy Reid said after last week's win, they've got Patrick Mahomes. Tampa Bay, of course, has Tom Brady, but concerns about the fit between Bruce Arians' offense and his 43-year-old arm surfaced again in last week's loss to the Rams as his attempts to go deep were, to put it politely, a bit off the mark. He has the most talented group of receivers in the league, and defensive coordinators probably lie awake at night worried about what they'll do if Brady starts getting the ball in their hands more quickly, but Arians simply isn't wired for a West Coast-style, quick-strike passing game, even after watching his secondary get dismantled by Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods using exactly that game plan. Also, here's a fun fact: for all the frustration Arians' backfield usage has generated, Ronald Jones still  is fifth in the league in rushing yards. Then again, everybody outside the top two (Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook) is just in a big dog pile. Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn't exactly set the world on fire as a rookie, and he's seventh.

The Skinny

KC injuries: RT Mitchell Schwartz (IR, back)

TB injuries: LT Donovan Smith (questionable, ankle), LG Ali Marpet (questionable, concussion)

KC DFS targets: Travis Kelce $7,000 DK / $8,000 FD (TB 23rd in DVOA vs. TE)

TB DFS targets: Ronald Jones $6,100 DK / $6,500 FD (KC 30th in rushing DVOA, 26th in rushing yards per game allowed)

KC DFS fades: Patrick Mahomes $8,000 DK / $9,000 FD (TB second in passing DVOA), Clyde Edwards-Helaire $6,400 DK / $6,700 FD (TB first in rushing DVOA, first in YPC allowed, first in rushing yards per game allowed, second in passing DVOA vs. RB), Tyreek Hill $7,800 DK / $8,600 FD (TB second in DVOA vs. WR1)

TB DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC is second in third-down conversions at 50.4 percent; TB is t-15th in third-down defense at 41.0 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: CEH manages 70 scrimmage yards, while Le'Veon Bell vultures another red-zone touchdown. Mahomes throws for 330 yards and three TDs, finding Kelce (who tops 100 yards) twice and Sammy Watkins once. Jones pops for 110 yards and a score. Brady throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette but can't keep pace with the young gun. Chiefs, 34-24

Chicago (+8.5) at Green Bay, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Welp. Looks like the Mitch is back, Bears fans. With Nick Foles not practicing all week due to a hip injury and Mitchell Trubisky recovered from his own shoulder issue, the 2017 second overall pick will get one last chance to salvage his career in Chicago. It's not a throwaway game, either, even with the Bears coming into this one on a four-game losing skid. A win puts the team only one game back of the Packers in the race for the NFC North title, setting up a potential winner-take-all Week 17 rematch back at Soldier Field. The offense also has David Montgomery back in action, for what that's worth, but, as per usual, the Bears will live or die with their defense. Green Bay isn't exactly coming into Week 12 with a lot of momentum either. Last week's overtime fumble by Marquez Valdes-Scantling followed a too-close-for-comfort home win over the lowly Jags, and the Packers are just 3-3 in their last six. Aaron Rodgers continues to play like an MVP — he's already thrown more TDs this season than he did all of 2019 or 2018 — and he has Allen Lazard back, but the defense just can't get a stop when it needs one, unless it's facing an offense even more inept than it is. Did I mention that Trubisky is 0-2 in two starts at Lambeau with a 1:2 TD:INT and a 5.7 YPA?

The Skinny

CHI injuries: QB Foles (doubtful, hip), LT Charles Leno (questionable, toe), RT Rashaad Coward (questionable, ankle), DE Akiem Hicks (questionable, hamstring)

GB injuries: WR Valdes-Scantling (questionable, Achilles), C Corey Linsley (questionable, back), CB Kevin King (questionable, Achilles)

CHI DFS targets: Anthony Miller $3,000 DK / $5,100 FD (GB 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)

GB DFS targets: Allen Lazard $4,600 DK / $5,600 FD (CHI 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

CHI DFS fades: none

GB DFS fades: Aaron Rodgers $6,700 DK / $8,600 FD (CHI third in passing DVOA, second in TD% allowed), Aaron Jones $7,000 DK / $8,200 FD (CHI third in rushing DVOA, first in passing DVOA vs. RB), Davante Adams $8,800 DK / $9,500 FD (CHI first in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: CHI is 32nd in third-down conversions at 31.1 percent; GB is 12th in third-down defense at 39.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 GB, average score 23-17 GB, average margin of victory eight points. GB has won seven of the last eight meetings, and the last five meetings have been decided by a single score

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 30s, 12-14 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Montgomery picks up 60 yards. Trubisky throws for 230 yards and touchdowns to Allen Robinson and Miller but gets picked off twice. Jones gains 70 combined yards and a score. Rodgers throws for 250 yards and two TDs, hitting Robert Tonyan and Adams. Packers, 27-14

Houston at Detroit (+3), o/u 51.5 – Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EST

The Texans are looking like a decent football team again, going 3-3 under Romeo Crennel — and frankly, they weren't all that far from being 5-1, as one of the losses was a 10-7 slogfest in awful weather in Cleveland, and in one of the others they took the Titans to overtime before getting Derrick Henry'ed. Deshaun Watson might be inheriting that "should be in the MVP conversation every season but never is" mantle from Russell Wilson, as Watson's on pace for career highs in basically every passing category despite the mess of a roster around him left behind by Bill O'Brien. The Lions are headed in the opposite direction, having lost three of their last four and somehow getting themselves shut out by the Panthers (the Panthers???) last week. Sure, they were without Kenny Golladay, D'Andre Swift and Danny Amendola, and sure, Matthew Stafford's thumb probably wasn't 100 percent healthy, but that's still an impressive display of offensive ineptitude. On a short week, it's tough to say if any of those injured skill players will be back, but Swift and Amendola at least took part in Tuesday's walkthrough. Detroit hasn't won on Thanksgiving since 2016, but both defenses have been very generous at times this year, and it is the giving season after all. Another shutout probably isn't in the cards. Probably.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: WR Randall Cobb (out, toe), WR Kenny Stills (out, quad), LG Semio Kelemete (questionable, concussion)

DET injuries: QB Stafford (questionable, thumb), RB Swift (questionable, concussion), WR Golladay (questionable, hip), WR Amendola (questionable, hip), WR Marvin Hall (questionable, toe), TE T.J. Hockenson (questionable, shoulder), LG Jonah Jackson (questionable, knee), RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (questionable, foot), CB Jeff Okudah (questionable, shoulder)

HOU DFS targets: Duke Johnson $5,700 DK / $6,100 FD (DET 32nd in rushing TDs allowed, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB)

DET DFS targets: D'Andre Swift $6,500 DK / $7,200 FD (HOU 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed), Marvin Jones $5,500 DK / $6,000 FD (HOU 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), Marvin Hall $3,900 DK / $5,100 FD (HOU 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), T.J. Hockenson $4,700 DK / $6,000 FD (HOU 28th in DVOA vs. TE)

HOU DFS fades: Texans DST $2,700 DK / $3,900 FD (32nd in INT%, 32nd in takeaways)

DET DFS fades: none

Key stat: DET is 25th in third-down conversions at 38.9 percent; HOU is 28th in third-down defense at 48.5 percent

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Johnson stitches together 70 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Watson throws for 290 yards and two more TDs, finding Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller. Swift starts and piles up 120 scrimmage yards and two scores. Stafford throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Jones and Hockenson. Lions, 28-27

Washington (+3) at Dallas, o/u 46.0 – Thursday, 4:30 p.m. EST

Whoever wins this game, at least for the moment, takes over first place in the NFC Least ... err, East, at 4-7, so hooray for high stakes, I guess. Washington's pass rush, at least, is worthy of a division champ, and it's developing a reputation as a QB killer after ending Joe Burrow's season last week and taking out Andy Dalton in the first meeting between these clubs. Maybe that's some sort of cosmic balancing of the scales to account for Alex Smith's comeback. The veteran has had his moments in his three starts, but he also has a 2:4 TD:INT, so he's still trying to find a consistent rhythm. The same could be said for Dalton, who returned to action last week and led the Cowboys to a win in Minnesota, though Ezekiel Elliott and the running game did most of the heavy lifting. The Red Rifle will probably be looking for some revenge for that hit by Jon Bostic, and the Dallas offensive line looked at least adequate with Zack Martin shifted to right tackle, so Dalton might get more time in the pocket than he did in Week 7, but Washington's secondary has been stingy all season even after accounting for the quality of divisional opponents — Jared Goff is the only QB to post a 300-yard game against it in 2020.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: WR Terry McLaurin (questionable, ankle), LT Cornelius Lucas (questionable, ankle), K Dustin Hopkins (questionable, groin)

DAL injuries: K Greg Zuerlein (questionable, back), CB Anthony Brown (questionable, ribs)

WAS DFS targets: Alex Smith $5,400 DK / $6,700 FD (DAL 31st in QB rating against, 32nd in TD% allowed), Cam Sims $3,300 DK / $4,800 FD (DAL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Logan Thomas $3,500 DK / $5,000 FD (DAL 31st in DVOA vs. TE), Washington DST $3,700 DK / $4,800 FD (third in sack rate, DAL 31st in giveaways)

DAL DFS targets: Dalton Schultz $3,800 DK / $5,300 FD (WAS 29th in DVOA vs. TE)

WAS DFS fades: J.D. McKissic $5,100 DK / $5,600 FD (DAL third in passing DVOA vs. RB)

DAL DFS fades: Andy Dalton $5,600 DK / $6,800 FD (WAS fourth in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed), Michael Gallup $3,500 DK / $5,500 FD (WAS second in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: DAL is 26th in red-zone conversions at 54.8 percent; WAS is fifth in red-zone defense at 53.6 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 DAL, average score 27-22 DAL, average margin of victory 12 points. The last three meetings, and five of the last seven, have been decided by 10-plus points

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Antonio Gibson dashes for 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Smith throws for 250 yards and two TDs, hitting Thomas and McLaurin. Elliott bangs out 70 yards and a touchdown. Dalton throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Amari Cooper, gets sacked five times, and throws a pick six to Ronald Darby. Washington, 31-20

Last week's record: 9-5, 9-5 ATS, 9-5 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 99-61-1, 81-76-4 ATS, 72-86-3 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
Lifetime record: 892-543-6, 674-713-54 ATS, 565-597-23 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)