NFL Game Previews: Browns-Broncos Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

Cleveland (+5.5) at Denver, o/u 41.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Browns used the weather as a 12th man last week to upset the Steelers, a win that nearly sent them tumbling all the way out of the top 10 in next year's draft. Their closing schedule is tough though, and that win might end up being their last one of the campaign. Jameis Winston has turned back the clock since taking over as the QB, throwing six TDs in four games and topping a 8.0 YPA in three of them, but also committing six turnovers (four INTs, two lost fumbles). That does give Jerry Jeudy some intriguing revenge game potential, at least. Nick Chubb also doesn't look like he's going to bail out the offense. He did plow ahead for two touchdowns last week, but he's got a 3.0 YPC in five games since getting cleared to return. I'm not prepared to say he's done – given the severity of his injury and surgery, not getting fully back up to speed until 2025 wouldn't be a surprise – but that doesn't help Cleveland in 2024. Myles Garrett's kept the pass rush going and already has his seventh straight season with double-digit sacks, but the defense overall has regressed and has only eight takeaways on the season, although three of them have come in two games since the Browns' bye.

If the season had ended after Week 12, the Broncos would have snuck into the playoff in the final wild-card spot in the AFC, which is a pretty stunning turnaround considering the wreckage Nathaniel Hackett left behind just a couple seasons ago. Bo Nix has become a legitimate Offensive Rookie of the Year contender, committing only two turnovers over the last nine games while producing 18 totals TDs (16 through the air and two on the ground), and Courtland Sutton has taken off over the last month, racking up a 36-467-3 line on 48 targets over the last five games. The backfield's kind of a mess, and nobody else has really stepped up among the wideouts, but that's been just enough offense for a two-game winning streak and a 7-5 record because the defense has been fierce. Denver leads the league in sacks, hand five of the last six teams to take them on have failed to get to 20 points – a stretch that includes Atlanta and Kansas City. Of course, Baltimore hung 41 points on them in that sixth game, but that's why they're only in the wild-card mix.

Key Info

CLE injuries: WR Cedric Tillman (out, concussion), LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (IR, neck)
DEN injuries: WR Josh Reynolds (IR, finger)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CLE DFS targets: none
DEN DFS targets: Courtland Sutton, Broncos DST

CLE DFS fades: David Njoku
DEN DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the high 30s 

The Scoop

Chubb manages 50 yards. Winston throws for under 200 yards, gets picked off twice and sacked six times, but he does hit Jeudy for a touchdown. Audric Estime leads the DEN backfield with 60 yards and a TD. Nix throws for 240 yards and two scores, finding Sutton (who tops 100 yards) and Troy Franklin while also running in a touchdown of his own. Broncos 28-10

EARLY SUNDAY

L.A. Chargers at Atlanta (+2), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Last week's Harbaugh Bowl loss put the Chargers at 7-4, but all four losses have come against teams potentially headed for the playoffs. Justin Herbert has stumbled a bit recently while facing defenses that were struggling earlier in the year, managing a 52.8 percent completion rate the last two games against the Bengals and Ravens, but he may have just caught them as they began to play up to their talent level. Herbert still has a 13:1 TD:INT on the year, and his 7.7 YPA would actually be a career high. J.K. Dobbins finally broke down last week, but really, 11 games of solid production was more than anyone had a right to expect from him. If he does sit out Sunday's game, Gus Edwards is probably the next man up, but his 3.3 YPC on the season isn't exactly encouraging, and it could open the door for sixth-round pick Kimani Vidal to see his first significant NFL action. Hassan Haskins might also vulture a goal-line carry or two – four of his 13 totes on the season have come inside the five-yard line, and all four have come in the last five games. The Bolts' secondary is also banged up, but the pass rush might be a difference-maker down the stretch with both Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack healthy, and breakout second-year player Tuli Tuipulotu having piled up 7.0 sacks in the last five games. The Chargers are sixth in the league in sacks despite being only 25th in pressure rate and 24th in pass-rush win rate, but that's been with Bosa dealing with a hip issue most of the year and Mack hasn't been able to repeat his magical 2023. It's just as likely the latter metrics will rise, as it is the team's sacks will decline to meet them.

The Falcons are still clinging to the lead in the NFC South – sweeping the season series with the Bucs could end up being critical for their playoff chances – but they aren't making things easy on themselves. Atlanta's lost two straight ahead of a Week 12 bye, and the rout in Denver was downright embarrassing. Kirk Cousins has a 9:9 TD:INT against teams that aren't Tampa Bay, and a reeling Dallas squad is the only other defense he's really lit up. He has been a relatively stable presence in the offense though, which is a huge step up for the franchise compared to the prior couple seasons, when they were making do with the likes of Taylor Heinicke, Desmond Ridder and Marcus Mariota. That stability has helped the rest of the Falcons' skill players start to play up to their draft status. Bijan Robinson is fifth in the league in scrimmage yards coming into Week 13 (he'll probably be sixth by the time you read this, with Josh Jacobs playing on Thanksgiving), while Drake London is on pace for his first 1,000-yard campaign and Kyle Pitts is... well, OK, he's still Kyle Pitts. Even so, the team's been held below 20 points five times in 2024, going 0-5 in those games and 6-0 in the rest. That makes sense considering the defense hasn't held an opponent below 20 points since Week 1. The lack of a pass rush is making it tough for DC Jimmy Lake's unit (which is really Raheem Morris' unit) to really gain any traction, and four straight opponents have topped 360 yards against Atlanta, while the Falcons have failed to generate a takeaway in four of their last five contests. A massive rest advantage – the Chargers played at home Monday night – might be the best thing they have going for them here.

Key Info

LAC injuries: RB J.K. Dobbins (out, knee), LB Daiyan Henley (questionable, calf)
ATL injuries: K Younghoe Koo (questionable, hip)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LAC DFS targets: Ladd McConkey
ATL DFS targets: Darnell Mooney

LAC DFS fades: Joshua Palmer
ATL DFS fades: Falcons DST

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Vidal leads the LAC backfield with 60 scrimmage yards, but Edwards scores a touchdown. Herbert throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding McConkey and Johnston. Robinson churns out 80 yards and a score. Cousins throws for 220 yards and touchdowns to Mooney and London, but Cameron Dicker boots a game-winner in overtime. Chargers 27-24

Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Browns handed Russell Wilson his first loss as a Steeler last week, but the veteran QB still came away with a 75.0 percent completion rate and 9.6 YPA in windy and snowy conditions. Wilson's been impressive, posting a 7:2 TD:INT in five starts, and his 8.1 YPA on the season would be his best mark since 2018. There's a chance his numbers could improve too, if Mike Williams ever earns the trust of the coaching staff – since his spectacular game-winning TD catch against the Commanders in Week 10, he hasn't seen a target. For the most part though, Pittsburgh is playing Pittsburgh football, recording multiple takeaways in six of the last seven games and failing to run for at least 100 yards as a team only once all year. The Steelers have a half-game lead on the Ravens in the AFC North, but their closing schedule is going to make it tough to hang onto – their still have to travel to Baltimore, they have two games left against a desperate Cincy squad (including this one), and their remaining non-division opponents are Philly and Kansas City. Yikes.

At 4-7, the Bengals haven't been eliminated from the playoff picture quite yet, but they likely have no margin for error left, even given that their remaining schedule sets up well for a closing surge. Joe Burrow has been nothing short of heroic lately, posting a 12:1 TD:INT over the last three games, but Cincy's won only one of them (and that came against Las Vegas) because the defense can't get out of its own way. The Bengals have coughed up 34-plus points to three of their last four opponents, with Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson both putting up huge numbers against them. Only the Cowboys have had a worse red-zone defense than the Bengals, and the unit is at least below average in just about every useful stat you can think of. That's just been too big a hole for Burrow to climb out of each week. The Steelers have won three of the last four meetings with the Bengals, including two straight at Paycor Stadium, but Burrow has a 3-2 lifetime record against Pittsburgh – he missed both games in 2023.

Key Info

PIT injuries: WR Roman Wilson (IR, hamstring), EDGE Alex Highsmith (doubtful, ankle), LB Cole Holcomb (PUP, knee)
CIN injuries: LB Logan Wilson (questionable, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
PIT DFS targets: Calvin Austin
CIN DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: Bengals DST

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s, 1-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop

Najee Harris bangs out 100 yards and a TD. Wilson throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Austin and Darnell Washington. Chase Brown gets held to 50 yards, and he coughs up a fumble that T.J. Watt returns to the house. Burrow throws for 260 yards and three scores, one each to Ja'Marr Chase, Mike Gesicki and Andrei Iosivas, but once again it's not enough. Steelers 28-24

Houston at Jacksonville (+4.5), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

After losing three of their last four, the Texans have seen their lead in the AFC South dwindle to... actually, it hasn't dwindled at all. They're still two games up on a Colts team they've already swept, and Houston's the only team in the division with a point differential in the black. The losses have largely been due to a passing game that still isn't in sync, even with Nico Collins back in action. Over the last six games, C.J. Stroud has stumbled to a 57.4 percent completion rate, 4:5 TD:INT and 6.9 YPA, and all five picks have come in the last three weeks. Joe Mixon did see his TD streak end last week, but during that same six-game stretch he's piled up 652 scrimmage yards and eight rushing scores, while the defense has erupted for 16 takeaways and 23 sacks. In short, it's all on Stroud to get going, and get the team looking like a viable Super Bowl contender again. They may be no better opponent for a get-right game than the Jaguars though, and the Texans have incredibly won six straight meetings at EverBank Stadium, with Jacksonville's last home win in this rivalry coming back in 2017, when Blake Bortles led his team to a 45-7 rout over a Houston squad with T.J. Yates at quarterback. A middle initial is about all Yates has in common with Stroud. The Texans also have an opportunity to win this year's Tank Bowl, as Tank Dell missed the first meeting between him and Tank Bigsby back in Week 4. The two Tanks split the 2023 series.

Losers of four straight prior to their week 12 bye, the Jaguars have their sights sets on the first overall pick in the 2025 draft, and the haul that might come from trading down since they're stuck with Trevor Lawrence. 'Stuck' is probably too harsh a word – this isn't a Daniel Jones situation, at least not yet – but the first overall pick in the 2021 draft has stubbornly refused to take that next step forward after recovering from a lost rookie campaign under Urban Meyer. It doesn't help that Lawrence's receiving corps is down both Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, but the Jags' biggest issue in 2024 has been their defense. They've been bad against the run, worse against the pass, can't get off the field on third down, can't keep teams out of the end zone, and don't create turnovers or sacks. The Lions hung 52 points and 645 yards on them in Week 11, and somehow DC Ryan Nielsen kept his job. Expect a thorough housecleaning in the offseason.

Key Info

HOU injuries: LB Christian Harris (IR, calf), S Jalen Pitre (out, pectoral)
JAC injuries: QB Trevor Lawrence (questionable, shoulder)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
HOU DFS targets: C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, Texans DST
JAC DFS targets: none

HOU DFS fades: none
JAC DFS fades: Travis Etienne/Tank Bigsby, Evan Engram

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Mixon pops for 100 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Stroud throws for 330 yards and two more touchdowns, one each to Dell (who tops 100 yards) and Collins. Etienne leads the JAC backfield with 70 yards, while Bigsby punches in a short score. Lawrence suits up but throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Brian Thomas before being replaced by Mac Jones after a Danielle Hunter sack. Texans 34-14

Arizona (+3.5) at Minnesota, o/u 44.5– Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Last week's ugly loss to the Seahawks puts the Cardinals in a tight spot, as they're behind in both the NFC West title chase and the wild-card race. They also play Seattle again next week back in Arizona, a game the Cards cannot afford to lose, so if you believe teams can get caught looking ahead, this is exactly the situation it might happen in. Kyler Murray's thrown just one TD in the last three games, but he's run in a couple and has a 72.8 percent completion rate and 8.7 YPA, so he's hardly been slacking. The coaching staff is also keeping a close eye on James Conner's workload, and he's seen only 29 touches over the last two games combined, turning them into 162 scrimmage yards and a score. Rookie Trey Benson (105 scrimmage yards on 16 touches) has picked up the slack, and while a full-blown timeshare isn't likely, the 2024 third-round pick probably isn't fading back into irrelevance. Trey McBride has emerged as Murray's top option, seeing double-digit targets twice in the last four contests, while Marvin Harrison hasn't seen more than seven since Week 3. It's DC Nick Rallis' unit that'll probably determine Arizona's fate, though. The Cards have held three straight opponents under 20 points and 300 yards, and the pass rush has come to life with 14 sacks during that stretch. They were taking advantage of some poor offensive lines (the Bears and Jets are both bottom eight in sacks allowed), but the Vikings haven't been a whole lot better in that regard, and first-round pick Darius Robinson might also finally be healthy enough to make his season debut.

Winners of four straight, the Vikings remain hot on the heels of the Lions in the NFC North, and their Week 18 meeting in Detroit looms larger and larger. Minnesota hasn't put a lot of points on the board during their latest win streak, averaging just 21.5 PPG, but they've topped 400 yards of offense in three of them, and it's only some untimely giveaways from Sam Darnold that have kept them from making more trips to the end zone. He's got a 68.1 percent completion rate, 8.0 YPA and eight total TDs (seven passing, one rushing) during that stretch, but he's committed seven turnovers (five INTs, two lost fumbles). Justin Jefferson has also gone ominously quiet, posting a 13-156-0 line on 22 targets over the last three weeks, and he hasn't scored a touchdown in five straight games. You know the eruption's coming; the only question is when. During the four wins, Brian Flores' defense has kept the Vikes afloat, allowing only 15.0 PPG, and nobody's reached 400 yards of offense against the unit since the Packers in Week 4. They've also allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league to QBs, but they also haven't really faced any elite mobile quarterbacks this season – Joe Flacco was under center when they took on the Colts. The loss of linebacker Ivan Pace might also hurt the Vikings' ability to contain Kyler, and if there's a path to an upset for the Cardinals here, it probably comes via Murray's legs.

Key Info

ARI injuries: RB Emari Demercado (questionable, back), EDGE Darius Robinson (questionable, calf)
MIN injuries: K Will Reichard (IR, quadricep), LB Ivan Pace (IR, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
ARI DFS targets: none
MIN DFS targets: Vikings DST

ARI DFS fades: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Greg Dortch
MIN DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Conner gains 60 yards and a touchdown. Murray throws for under 200 yards and a score to Harrison. Aaron Jones racks up 100 scrimmage yards and a TD. Darnold throws for 290 yards and three scores, two to Jefferson (who tops 100 yards) and one to Trent Sherfield. Vikings 31-17 

Indianapolis at New England (+2.5), o/u 42.5 
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

At 5-7, the Colts are two full games back of both the Texans in the AFC South and the final wild-card berth in the conference, but their closing schedule is marshmallow soft – they get the Titans, Giants and Jaguars after this, with their only remaining game against a potential playoff team coming in Denver right after Indy's Week 14 bye. Will 9-8 be good enough in the AFC? Maybe not, and considering the Broncos are the team they're trying to catch in the wild-card race, that game probably decides their season. Anthony Richardson took two steps forward against the Jets a couple weeks ago but then took one step back last week against the Lions, but it's still progress in the overall scheme of things. At least to my extremely amateur scouting eyes, his issues seem correctable – fixing his footwork in the pocket most of all – but it's not the kind of thing that's going to get fixed midseason. The second-year QB's 61 rushing yards last week were a season high, and Shane Steichen seems resigned to squeezing as much offense out of Richardson's legs as he can, even knowing that he's risking another injury to the kid. An injury-ravaged offensive line that's down to its third-string center will give Richardson plenty of incentive to get out of the pocket. Jonathan Taylor is also struggling to find running room of late, as teams feel less pressure to defend against the pass. The Colts don't have much choice but to go with a ground-heavy game plan in this one though, with Josh Downs sidelined and Alec Pierce iffy as well.

The switch to Drake Maye under center has made the Patriots a little more watchable, but it hasn't really changed things much for the offense. The team still has yet to score more than 25 points in a game this season, and it's topped 300 yards of offense only three times. Maye's got a 66.9 percent completion rate over the last four games and has been a threat with his legs, but his five TD passes during that stretch pales in comparison to his eight turnovers (five INTs, three lost fumbles). Rhamondre Stevenson hasn't even managed 80 rushing yards in a game since Week 5, and his offensive line just isn't giving him much to work with – his 1.7 average yards before contact is among the worst marks in the league, ahead of only Alexander Mattison, Rachaad White and both of Seattle's backs. (And Nick Chubb, which is discouraging for anyone hoping he'll return to form down the stretch.) The Pats' defense isn't getting the job done, either. The only offenses they've held under 300 yards all season have been dysfunctional ones – the Bengals in Week 1, and the Bears in Week 10 – and only five teams have coughed up more red-zone TDs. (Of course, one of them is the Colts...)

Key Info

IND injuries: WR Josh Downs (out, shoulder), WR Alec Pierce (questionable, foot)
NE injuries: WR DeMario Douglas (questionable, ankle), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (IR, pectoral), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
IND DFS targets: Anthony Richardson, Alec Pierce/Adonai Mitchell
NE DFS targets: DeMario Douglas/K.J. Osborn

IND DFS fades: none
NE DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-30s, 1-10 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

Taylor busts out for 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Richardson throws for 240 yards and a score to Michael Pittman while running in a touchdown of his own. Stevenson grinds out 60 yards. Maye throws for 210 yards and two TDs, finding Douglas and Hunter Henry. Colts 24-20

Seattle at N.Y. Jets (+1.5), o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Last week's soggy win over the Cardinals put the Seahawks in the top spot in the NFC West, even if only on a temporary tiebreaker, but every team in the division has either five or six wins so they have no laurels to rest on. Seattle's won two straight since their bye, but there are definite warning signs that the team could stumble down the stretch. The Hawks have gone four straight games without scoring more than 20 points, and Geno Smith's thrown six INTs during that time, hanging a dark cloud over his otherwise impressive 70.6 percent completion rate and 8.3 YPA. The running game is also stagnant – Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet both rank among the worst RBs in the league in yards per carry before contact, although Walker is seeing enough usage as a pass-catcher and at the goal line to keep his fantasy value afloat. It's not just run blocking that the O-line is having trouble with, though. Smith's been sacked 16 times in the last three games. The Seattle defense has played better since the bye, but in the six games prior to that the unit has allowed an average of 29.7 points and 412 yards, with every opponent topping 360 yards.

After losing seven of their last eight games, the Jets are on the verge of sneaking into the top five in the 2025 draft, giving them a shot at blowing another high pick on a QB they'll be unable to develop. Look, I don't mean to kick Jets fans when they're down, but the team's track record here is rough. The fact that they'll now be facing their second Ghost of Franchise QBs Past of the season in Geno after losing to Sam Darnold in Week 5 just throws those institutional failures into starker relief. (At least Zach Wilson didn't come off the bench for the Broncos to beat them?) Interim coach Jeff Ulbrich continues to insist Aaron Rodgers isn't coming out of the lineup, and there's really no reason to bench him if the goal is a better draft slot. The 40-year-old hasn't thrown a pick in four games and does have seven TDs, but his 6.3 YPA during that time won't win many games. Last week's bye might have helped Rodgers regain some chemistry with Davante Adams though – the wideout has averaged nearly 10 targets a game since joining the Jets, but his 26-278-1 line on 46 targets over five contests isn't anything special. Garrett Wilson has been a little more productive on slightly less volume since Adams starting horning in on his action. Breece Hall is a bit banged up, but he's topped 80 scrimmage yards in six straight, amassing 688 combined yards and three total TDs, and he should probably be the focal point of the offense the rest of the way if he can stay healthy. The Jets' defense is also staggering, managing only two takeaways in the last six contests while allowing 26.2 PPG. That's a number the offense has reached only once all year – and it came in a 28-27 loss to the Colts in Week 11.

Key Info

SEA injuries: EDGE Uchenna Nwosu (IR, quadricep)
NYJ injuries: RB Breece Hall (questionable, knee), WR Allen Lazard (IR, chest), K Greg Zuerlein (IR, knee), LB C.J. Mosley (questionable, neck), S Chuck Clark (questionable, shin)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
SEA DFS targets: Kenneth Walker, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
NYJ DFS targets: Jets DST

SEA DFS fades: none
NYJ DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the high 30s, 10-15 mph wind, 5-15 percent chance of rain/snow 

The Scoop

Walker collects 80 scrimmage yards and a receiving score. Smith throws for 250 yards and two TDs, hitting DK Metcalf and Smith-Njigba. Hall gets held to 60 yards. Rodgers throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Tyler Conklin. Seahawks 21-16

Tennessee (+5.5) at Washington, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Depending on your perspective, Will Levis picked a really rotten time to have his best game of the season. His 11.6 YPA last week was boosted by this embarrassing display from the Texans defense on Chigoziem Okonkwo's fourth-quarter touchdown, but the second-year QB still played well and minimized his mistakes, and the 3-8 Titans now sit outside the top five in the 2025 draft. Levis has looked better in general since returning to the lineup, completing 67.9 percent of his passes over the last three weeks with a 5:2 TD:INT and 9.6 YPA, and a soft closing schedule when it comes to opposition secondaries – he faces the Jaguars twice, plus the Bengals and Colts, in addition to this week's tilt – might just allow him to make a strong enough case to keep the starting gig next year. On the other hand, Tennessee's scored more than 20 points only twice all season, and the offensive line is missing multiple starters, including center Lloyd Cushenberry. The secondary, which has been the Titans' most consistent unit in 2024, is depleted too. Levis's not in the clear yet.

The glow has officially faded off the Commanders. They've lost three straight, and any chance they had of an NFC East title has probably disappeared. Losing to playoff teams like the Steelers and Eagles is one thing, but last week's poor showing against the Cowboys was just ugly, as games decided by special-teams failures tend to be. Putting aside a last-second TD return on Washington's onside kick attempt, the team also gave KaVontae Turpin a returnable kickoff with 13 seconds left in the game which Turpin predictably took 99 yards to the house, and Austin Seibert missed a field goal and an extra point prior to botching a second PAT after Terry McLaurin's miracle 86-yard TD one play after Turpin's return. (Seriously, the last five minutes of that game are completely unhinged, and worth going back to watch if you haven't.) Jayden Daniels, at least, appears to be mostly over the sore ribs that may have contributed to the losing streak. He produced three TDs in Dallas, including this 17-yard run for his first score on the ground since Week 4. The Commanders have a favorable closing schedule – their only two remaining opponents with winning records, the Eagles and Falcons, have to travel to DC – so a playoff berth should still be secure, but it's Daniels' health that will determine whether they can make any noise in the postseason.

Key Info

TEN injuries: RB Tyjae Spears (questionable, concussion), LB Jack Gibbens (IR. Ankle), S Quandre Diggs (IR, foot), CB L'Jarius Sneed (IR, quadricep)
WAS injuries: RB Austin Ekeler (out, concussion), K Austin Seibert (IR, groin)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
TEN DFS targets: none
WAS DFS targets: Jeremy McNichols

TEN DFS fades: none
WAS DFS fades: Olamide Zaccheaus/Luke McCaffrey

Weather notes: 10-20 percent chance of rain/snow 

The Scoop

Tony Pollard picks up 80 yards and a touchdown. Levis throws for under 200 yards but does find Calvin Ridley for a TD. Brian Robinson bangs out 110 yards and a score, while McNichols adds 60 yards and a receiving touchdown. Daniels throws for 330 yards and a second TD to McLaurin while running in a score of his own. Commanders 34-20

LATE SUNDAY

Tampa Bay at Carolina (+5.5), o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

After losing four straight before their bye, the Bucs took advantage of a tilt against the Giants last week to emerge from their slide. Tampa's a game back of Atlanta in the NFC South, a division so mediocre even Carolina is still technically in the hunt for the title, but a closing schedule that features the Chargers as the only team above .500 still arguably makes the Bucs the favorites. Baker Mayfield failed to throw a TD in Week 12 for the first time all year, but he didn't need to in a 30-7 win as he simply got his team close to the goal line and let the ground game do the rest – four different Buccaneers, including Mayfield, had rushing TDs in the victory. Mike Evans at least looked healthy in his return, setting him up for a big finish to the season after he hauled in six touchdowns in his first seven games before getting hurt. The defense has had trouble slowing down better offenses since an encouraging start to the season, but that won't be issue for a couple more weeks.

Somehow, the Panthers have pulled out out of their tailspin. After winning back-to-back games before their bye, they pushed Kansas City to the brink last week – while Carolina never led in the game, it was tied 27-27 with less than two minutes left, forcing Patrick Mahomes to do Patrick Mahomes things to set up a winning field goal as time expired. I wouldn't go so far as to say the Panthers are good yet, but there are definitely worse teams in the league right now. In four games since reclaiming the starting gig, Bryce Young has a 61.8 percent completion rate, 5:3 TD:INT and 6.4 YPA, mediocre numbers but still within range of respectability. Adam Thielen is back to give him a reliable veteran option, while Xavier Legette has a 15-163-2 line on 23 targets since Young's return and looks like a solid building block for the roster. I still have no idea what they're doing in the backfield, with Chuba Hubbard locked into a contract extension but Jonathon Brooks now being eased into the lineup, and I suspect they don't either, but Hubbard's got four rushing TDs in the last three games and isn't going anywhere. Having two potential starting RBs is better than none, I guess. The defense needs a lot of work, but coach Dave Canales deserves some credit for getting this team back to competence fairly quickly.

Key Info

TB injuries: S Jordan Whitehead (IR, pectoral)
CAR injuries: WR Jalen Coker (out, quadricep), TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (out, neck), EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
TB DFS targets: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving/Rachaad White, Cade Otton
CAR DFS targets: Tommy Tremble

TB DFS fades: none
CAR DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Irving has a career game with 110 yards and two TDs. Mayfield throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Evans and Otton. Hubbard gains 80 yards and a score. Young throws for 230 yards and a TD to Thielen. Buccaneers 34-17

L.A. Rams at New Orleans (+3), o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Rams got outclassed last week by the Eagles, but it's hard to fault them there. Matthew Stafford has tossed multiple TDs in four of five games since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned to action, posting a 66.3 percent completion rate, 12:3 TD:INT and 7.5 YPA over that stretch – not bad after he had only three passing touchdowns over the first six games of the season. With everybody healthy, this should be one of the better attacks in the league, but it's not really adding up consistently – the Rams haven't topped 335 yards of offense since Week 4. The defense, on the other hand, has the opposite problem, and the only team they've held below 391 yards since the beginning of October is the Giants, which hardly counts. At 5-6 the Rams are only one game back in the NFC West, and while their closing schedule features the Bills, they also get the Saints and Jets. The playoffs are still on the table, but unless the offense steps up, I just don't have a good feeling about their chances.

Granted, they're in better shape than the Saints. (At least in the standings. New Orleans is plus-2 in point differential, while the Rams are minus-43). Even after winning two straight under interim coach Darren Rizzi before their bye, they're two games back of the Falcons in the NFC South, and the Bucs and their creampuff schedule are between them and the division title. The Saints' Week 11 rout of the Browns looks good on paper, but they aren't likely to get 188 scrimmage yards and three TDs from Taysom Hill every week. Derek Carr has been sharp since returning from his oblique strain, posting a 66.3 percent completion rate, 5:0 TD:INT and 9.1 YPA over the last three contests, mainly just from chucking it deep to Marquez Valdes-Scantling. That seems... unsustainable, but a Rams secondary that ranks 31st in yards per attempt allowed might not be the best group to shut it down.

Key Info

LAR injuries: TE Tyler Higbee (IR, knee)
NO injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LAR DFS targets: Kyren Williams
NO DFS targets: Cedrick Wilson

LAR DFS fades: Puka Nacua
NO DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Williams scoops up 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Stafford throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, two to Kupp (who tops 100 yards) and one to Colby Parkinson. Alvin Kamara erupts for 150 combined yards and two TDs. Carr throws for 310 yards and three scores, one each to MVS, Foster Moreau and Wilson. Saints 38-31 

Philadelphia (+3) at Baltimore, o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Eagles have reeled off seven straight wins, and they've looked increasingly dominant while doing it. Only three of those victories have even been within a single score, and they've averaged a cool 30.0 points a game over that stretch while the defense has allowed more than 20 only once. The NFC has become a conference of haves and have-nots, as other than the Lions, no one else has more than six wins. Jalen Hurts is building a strong MVP case, posting a 69.9 percent completion rate and 9.5 YPA during the win streak with 18 total TDs against only two turnovers, but it would be stronger if Saquon Barkley wasn't also having a monster campaign – the former Giants has 1,129 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns just during the win streak. The defense has 12 takeaways and 14 sacks over the last five contests, and nobody's reached 300 yards of offense against Philly since Tampa Bay in Week 4. With a month-plus to go in the regular season, about the only really worry for the Eagles is that they might have peaked too early.

Fresh off a win in the Harbaugh Bowl, the Ravens are tied with the Steelers at the top of AFC North at 8-5, although Pittsburgh won the first meeting between them. Derrick Henry has slipped behind Barkley in the race for the rushing crown (and he's played one more game), but he still has time to turn on the afterburners and make a run at 2,000 yards. Lamar Jackson isn't budging from the MVP discussion either. His 67.3 percent completion rate and 8.9 YPA would both be career highs, and his 27:3 TD:INT is just silly. While Jackson doesn't have brotherly shoves to boost his rushing TD total, he does lead the NFL in passing yards. If this is going to be a Super Bowl preview, Baltimore's secondary will need to continue the improvement it's shown of late. Over the last two games, both Russell Wilson and Justin Herbert have failed to reach 220 passing yards or produce a passing TD, a huge turnaround for a unit that was getting lit up by Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield not too long ago. It's easy to forget at this point that the Ravens led the league in QB rating against in 2023, but they might finally regaining their usual form.

Key Info

PHI injuries: WR DeVonta Smith (questionable, hamstring), EDGE Bryce Huff (IR, wrist)
BAL injuries: EDGE Kyle Van Noy (doubtful, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
PHI DFS targets: A.J. Brown
BAL DFS targets: none

PHI DFS fades: none
BAL DFS fades: Rashod Bateman

Weather notes: temperature in the high 30s, 10-20 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

Barkley picks up 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Hurts throws for 260 yards and two scores, one each to Brown (who tops 100 yards) and Dallas Goedert. Henry responds with 100 yards and a TD. Jackson throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, finding Zay Flowers and Diontae Johnson while also running in a score of his own. Ravens 28-27

SUNDAY NIGHT

San Francisco (+7) at Buffalo, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

It's getting close to panic time in San Francisco. While the 49ers are still very much alive in the NFC West, even at 5-6, they've lost two straight games and weren't particularly competitive last week against the Packers with Brock Purdy sidelined. Christian McCaffrey's return was supposed to jump-start the offense, but they've averaged just 16.7 points a game in the three games he's played, and it wasn't just Brandon Allen dragging down the numbers. Deebo Samuel hasn't scored a TD or hauled in 100 yards since Week 6, and while Jauan Jennings has done a good job stepping in for Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle's been all but uncoverable (when he's been healthy), the pieces just aren't fitting together. Injuries all over the roster are largely to blame, but that's small comfort for a team that thought it was going to be a Super Bowl contender this season, and is now facing the very real possibility of not making the playoffs at all.

The Bills, of course, have no such concerns, and have been quietly getting ready for the postseason for the last month or so. They're four wins up on the Dolphins in the AFC East with six weeks left, and they roll into this one well-rested after a bye and having won six straight games. The time off allowed Amari Cooper to get healthier, and he should be ready for a full workload after not getting more than five targets in any of his three games so far with Buffalo. Josh Allen probably needed the time off too, but for different reasons. After throwing zero INTs over the first six games of the year, he's been picked off five times in the last four contests against six TDs. James Cook has been doing some heavy lifting in the red zone, scoring six rushing touchdowns in the last five games, and the defense hasn't let an opponent get to 400 yards since Week 5 while piling up takeaways. Unlike the NFC, the race for the top seed in the AFC remains wide open, with Kansas City one game ahead of Buffalo and Pittsburgh one game back, and Houston and Baltimore not out of it yet either, so the Bills can't afford to coast too much even with a division crown all but in their pockets.

Key Info

SF injuries: QB Brock Purdy (questionable, shoulder), EDGE Nick Bosa (out, hip), LB Dre Greenlaw (PUP, Achilles), S Talanoa Hufanga (IR, wrist)
BUF injuries: WR Keon Coleman (questionable, wrist), TE Dalton Kincaid (out, knee), LB Matt Milano (questionable, bicep)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
SF DFS targets: none
BUF DFS targets: Keon Coleman

SF DFS fades: none
BUF DFS fades: Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir

Weather notes: temperature in the low 20s, 8-10 mph wind, 60-80 percent chance of snow

The Scoop

McCaffrey collects 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Purdy plays but throws for under 200 yards, although he does hit Deebo for a touchdown. Cook gains 80 yards and a score. Allen throws for 240 yards and a TD to Curtis Samuel while also running in a touchdown of his own. Bills 24-14

FRIDAY

Las Vegas (+13) at Kansas City, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The black and silver QB carousel will get another spin this week. Gardner Minshew's out again, this time with a broken collarbone that will end his season, and Aidan O'Connell will come off the IR to replace him. Probably. Unless his thumb is still sore, in which case it'll be Desmond Ridder. It probably won't really matter who's running the offense, as the Raiders have lost seven consecutive games while averaging 18.3 points and 286.3 yards of offense a game. Last week's 369 yards against Denver was actually a season high for Vegas, and it came with the top two running backs on the shelf, which does make you wonder why they're the top two backs. Brock Bowers is on track for the best rookie season by a tight end in history, Jakobi Meyers is reliable and Maxx Crosby still has a shot at his third straight season with double-digit sacks, but I'm not sure there's another player on this roster that would be a starter on a true contender. That's incredibly poor resource management for a franchise that's had five head coaches and only two winning records in the last decade.

As the team is wont to do, Kansas City made things a lot tougher than it needed to be last week against the Panthers, but the defending champs still came away with their 10th win of the season. They're three games up in the AFC West with six to play, and reinforcements are due to arrive with Isiah Pacheco set to come off IR, as well as pass rusher Charles Omenihu, who had 7.0 sacks in 11 regular-season games last year plus one more in the AFC championship against the Ravens, a game he lasted only six snaps in before tearing his ACL. The latter return might actually make the bigger impact, even if Pacheco is the bigger name — Kansas City has only one takeaway and six sacks the last four games, and the defense could use some splash plays. The hero of late has been Noah Gray, who's somehow posted back-to-back two-TD performances. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have never been afraid to stick with what's working, and what seems to be working right now is getting defenses to forget that Travis Kelce has a pretty good backup. It won't last, but without a true go-to downfield option, Mahomes will have to keep making do with what he has.

Key Info

LV injuries: QB Gardner Minshew (out, collarbone), QB Aidan O'Connell (IR, thumb), RB Alexander Mattison (questionable, ankle), RB Zamir White (questionable, quadricep), WR Tre Tucker (questionable, hip)
KC injuries: RB Isiah Pacheco (IR, ankle), K Harrison Butker (IR, knee), K Spencer Shrader (questionable, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LV DFS targets: none
KC DFS targets: Samaje Perine, Travis Kelce/Noah Gray

LV DFS fades: Ameer Abdullah
KC DFS fades: Xavier Worthy

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-30s, 1-10 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

Alexander Mattison plays but manages only 40 yards. O'Connell starts and throws for less than 200 yards, but he does hit Bowers for a touchdown. Pacheco gets activated, but Kareem Hunt still leads the KC backfield with 80 yards and a score. Mahomes throws for 260 yards and two TDs, finding Perine and DeAndre Hopkins. Kansas City 27-10

THURSDAY

Chicago (+10) at Detroit, o/u 48.5 – Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EST

The Bears have lost five consecutive games, and they keep finding new ways to do it. The first loss in that streak was the Jayden Daniels Hail Mary game. Two weeks ago, Chicago had a potential game-winning field goal blocked by Green Bay on the final play of the game. Last week, Caleb Williams led a fourth-quarter comeback from a 14-point deficit to force overtime, only for Sam Darnold and the Vikings to methodically march down the field and boot a winning FG properly. Flip those results around, and the Bears are 7-4 and right in the thick of the wild-card discussion. New OC Thomas Brown has figured out that Williams doesn't need to stay in the pocket all the time, which makes sense when the kid is capable of stuff like this. (I've watched that throw more than a dozen times, and I still have no idea how the physics of it work without telekinesis being involved.) It also makes sense given how awful the team's offensive line has been — the poor rookie QB has been sacked 24 times during the losing streak. The Bears have kept things close in this rivalry during the Dan Campbell era, going 3-3 the last three seasons, but that's a massive ask on the road here given the trajectory of these two NFC North squads.

To wit, the Lions were the first team in the NFL to reach 10 wins, getting there about 15 minutes ahead of Kansas City last week. That victory over the Colts may have come at a price, however, as David Montgomery left the game early with a shoulder injury and Amon-Ra St. Brown emerged from it with a sore knee. Campbell seems fairly optimistic about the chances of both guys playing Thursday, but given the quick turnaround, you never know. Detroit has been an absolute wrecking crew after some early-season hiccups — in seven games since the team's bye, the Lions' average margin of victory has been more than 22 points. Road Jared Goff showed up in Indy, even though he had a roof over his head, but the Lions didn't need him with the defense holding a third straight opponent to less than 300 yards and a second straight opponent to just six points. The last touchdown a team managed to score against DC Aaron Glenn's unit came just before halftime in Week 10, when C.J. Stroud found John Metchie for a 15-yard score. That's 10 consecutive quarters of nothing but field goals (and only four of those), and while it's easy to write that off as a product of facing nothing but AFC South squads, it's still impressive.

Key Info

CHI injuries: S Jaquan Brisker (IR, concussion)
DET injuries: RB David Montgomery (questionable, shoulder), WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (questionable, knee), WR Kalif Raymond (doubtful, foot), LB Alex Anzalone (IR, forearm)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CHI DFS targets: none
DET DFS targets: Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery, Jameson Williams

CHI DFS fades: Caleb Williams, Cole Kmet
DET DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

D'Andre Swift puts together 80 yards and a touchdown. Caleb W throws for less than 200 yards and gets sacked four times, but he does find DJ Moore for a TD. Montgomery is active, but Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 140 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving, while Craig Reynolds punches in a short touchdown. Goff throws for 300 yards and two more TDs, hitting Jameson W (who tops 100 yards) and Sam LaPorta. Lions 38-17

N.Y. Giants (+3.5) at Dallas, o/u 37.0 – Thursday, 4:30 p.m. EST

Well, that didn't last long. After bravely leading the Giants to a 30-7 thumping at the hands of the Bucs last week in his first start of the season, Tommy DeVito developed a sore forearm, either from attempting 31 passes or from getting hit nine times, including four sacks. That probably puts Drew Lock under center for this one behind an offensive line down to its third-string left tackle. Lock's not great, but he gives the passing game a higher ceiling than DeVito does, assuming he has time to wait for routes to develop. This would be a good spot in which to lean on Tyrone Tracy, who reached 100 scrimmage yards in four of six games prior to the team's Week 11 bye before managing 70 on only 13 touches last week. Malik Nabers can probably work with anybody, and Wan'Dale Robinson's 4.1 aDOT highlights how close to the line he usually operates, but Darius Slayton will be happy to see someone with a bigger arm in the huddle. Big Blue is in the thick of the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft, and the defense is doing its part too — the Giants haven't generated multiple takeaways in a game since Week 3, and haven't kept an opponent to less than 300 total yards or 100 rushing yards since Week 4.

Of course, the Cowboys might take that as a dare. Yeah, they beat the Commanders last week ... in a game that saw the two teams combine for 19 points through the first three quarters before all hell broke loose in the fourth. Had a hobbled Austin Seibert not left some points on the table earlier, this ridiculous catch and run by Terry McLaurin against a defense that, presumably, was trying to prevent a big gain might have been the game-winner. Dallas ended up with 34 points on the day, but 14 of those came on kickoff returns. Cooper Rush also came out of that game banged up, but unlike DeVito is looks like he'll play, denying the world a possibly legendary Drew Lock-Trey Lance battle. Rico Dowdle is still looking for his first rushing TD of the season, but the last four games he's averaging 4.6 yards per carry while compiling a respectable 295 scrimmage yards, so Dallas at least seems to have its running-game woes sorted. The defense has given up at least 26 points to six consecutive opponents, though, and even getting Micah Parsons back hasn't helped much. Dallas has yet to have both Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland in the secondary at the same time in 2024, though, so maybe that's the answer. Or maybe the solution is just to play their favorite whipping boys. The Cowboys beat the Giants in Week 4, have swept the last three season series and are 14-1 in this, umm, "rivalry" since 2017.

Key Info

NYG injuries: QB Tommy DeVito (questionable, forearm)
DAL injuries: QB Cooper Rush (questionable, knee), WR CeeDee Lamb (questionable, back), WR Brandin Cooks (IR, knee), TE Jake Ferguson (questionable, concussion), EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, groin), CB DaRon Bland (questionable, foot), CB Trevon Diggs (questionable, groin)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NYG DFS targets: Tyrone Tracy
DAL DFS targets: CeeDee Lamb, KaVontae Turpin

NYG DFS fades: none
DAL DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Tracy pops for 110 scrimmage yards and a TD. Lock throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Nabers. Dowdle manages 70 yards and a score. Rush throws for 230 yards and two TDs, both to Lamb, but he also loses a fumble on a sack that Dexter Lawrence returns to the house. Cowboys 24-21

Miami (+3.5) at Green Bay, o/u 47.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

They're not dead yet! The Dolphins have won three consecutive games to climb to 5-6, and currently they would be the bubble team in the AFC, 1.5 games out of the final wild-card spot. It's hard to overlook that they haven't beaten a really good team yet this season, though. The Rams are the closest thing to a playoff team among their conquests, and the rest of their wins have come against the Raiders, Jaguars and Patriots (twice). Tua Tagovailoa has been locked in since returning from his most recent concussion, completing an absurd 76.5 percent of his passes over the last five games with an 11:1 TD:INT and 7.5 YPA, but his biggest weapons during that stretch have been Jonnu Smith (27-299-3 on 35 targets) and De'Von Achane (four receiving TDs). Tyreek Hill hasn't reached 100 yards in a game since Week 1, while Jaylen Waddle ended his own drought with an 8-144-1 line last week against New England. The weather at Lambeau Field on Thursday night may not be conducive to either guy breaking out, though.

It's flown a bit under the radar, but the Packers have won six of their last seven games, though it should really be 5.5 wins given how the Bears game ended. The one loss was against the Lions, which likely ended any shot Green Bay had at an NFC North title, but they're still comfortably in line for a wild card. Josh Jacobs has been a beast, topping 100 scrimmage yards in four straight games with a 4.9 YPA and six rushing TDs, including three in last week's romp over the shorthanded Niners. Jordan Love, however, still hasn't found a rhythm since his early season groin injury. He's completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes four times in the last eight games, and the last four games he's posted a 62.4 percent completion rate and 3:3 TD:INT. He does have an 8.8 YPA over that stretch, though, so a late surge is still a definite possibility. The defense remains hit and miss, but mostly hit — DC Jeff Hafley's unit has produced multiple takeaways in eight of 11 games this season but zero in the other three, and the three goose eggs have come in the team's last five contests. As with Love, the pieces are there for the Packers' defense to have a big finish to the regular season.

Key Info

MIA injuries: WR Tyreek Hill (questionable, wrist), EDGE Bradley Chubb (PUP, knee), LB Anthony Walker (doubtful, hamstring)
GB injuries: RB MarShawn Lloyd (NFI, appendix), WR Romeo Doubs (questionable, concussion)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIA DFS targets: Jonnu Smith
GB DFS targets: none

MIA DFS fades: Dolphins DST
GB DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the high 20s, 1-10 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

Achane gets held to 60 scrimmage yards, but he does catch a TD pass. Tagovailoa throws for 220 yards and a second score to Smith. Jacobs rumbles for 100 yards and a touchdown. Love throws for 250 yards and three TDs, one each to Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed and Christian Watson. Packers 28-17

Last week's record: 9-4, 7-6 ATS, 10-3 o/u
2024 record: 114-65, 90-87-2 ATS, 93-85-1 o/u