Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Bills are one of the league's most dominant teams, and while the 49ers were expected to be the same in 2024 their season instead has been defined by bad injury luck, at almost literally every position. With Brock Purdy playing through a concerning shoulder injury and Trent Williams missing at left tackle, the 49ers offense would have been in a difficult spot even without accounting for the tough Buffalo defense or the problematic weather Sunday. Snow and cold probably aren't the cure for what ails the 49ers. The Bills are favored by 6.5 points with the over/under set at 44.5.

QUARTERBACK

Josh Allen ($11000 DK, $16000 FD) is always a tough single-game fade and the weather doesn't do anything to change that here. It would for most other quarterbacks, but between his rare throwing velocity and especially his volume upside as a power runner there's reason to think Allen could post big numbers in this game, both in the single-game slate sense and relative to general standards.

Brock Purdy ($9200 DK, $13500 FD) has less reason for optimism than Allen. The conditions are more concerning for Purdy generally, but when you throw in his shoulder injury and the absence of Trent Williams at left tackle it becomes a uniquely perilous situation. Purdy is a gamer and can help his fantasy investors by running the ball, but producing much as a passer seems somewhat unrealistic.

RUNNING BACK

James Cook ($9600 DK, $13000 FD) should be in a good spot here against a battered San Francisco defense that figures to spend a lot of time on the field, including potentially on short fields. Cook has scored touchdowns at a high rate all year and the Bills should spend plenty of time in scoring range. Ray Davis ($2800 DK, $7000 FD) could capitalize for similar reasons, especially if the 49ers really struggle and the game gets away from them. Ty Johnson is plenty capable of popping up on the box score himself, though usually his reps have more to do with passing situations.

Christian McCaffrey ($10600 DK, $15500 FD) is one of the few 49ers players who clearly will have high usage in this game. No matter what way the game goes, the 49ers have to give McCaffrey reps, especially with Purdy and the passing game compromised. Jordan Mason ($2400 DK, $7500 FD) is a capable player and might be more of a part of the game plan than usual, especially if the 49ers call for more power run plays than they might have in normal weather, and if Purdy had been fully healthy. Isaac Guerendo is a talented RB3 but he's unlikely to see snaps if McCaffrey and Mason stay healthy.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

The conditions probably make things harder for all the pass catchers in this game, but Amari Cooper ($7200 DK, $10000 FD) and Khalil Shakir ($8000 DK, $11000 FD) should be viable fantasy options for the Bills. Shakir should mostly run from the slot, where the 49ers are without Deommodore Lenoir at corner, and that's a definite good matchup. Whichever receiver avoids Charvarius Ward has a similarly favorable matchup, and so any of Keon Coleman ($6400 DK, $9500 FD), Curtis Samuel ($4400 DK, $7500 FD) or to a lesser extent Mack Hollins ($3600 DK, $8000 FD) could capitalize if they end up in that spot. Coleman and Samuel might need to split playing time from here, while Hollins is normally more of a blocker. Tight end Dawson Knox ($4000 DK, $7000 FD) could be in a good spot for a red-zone playaction touchdown.

Deebo Samuel ($9000 DK, $11500 FD) might not be fully healthy – the 49ers haven't used him as a running back in recent games even though they really could have used a big rushing play or two – but it still seems like Samuel is the best option among San Francisco's wideouts. He has YAC upside no one else can imitate, and Purdy probably won't be able to throw downfield. George Kittle ($8600 DK, $12000 FD) is a similarly good YAC threat to Samuel, and of course Kittle is plenty capable of being the top pass catcher for the 49ers in a given game. As much as Samuel and Kittle carry a higher projection, Jauan Jennings ($7400 DK, $10500 FD) could be the leading 49ers pass catcher himself. Jennings tends to run shorter routes and is physical enough to bully defenders in traffic, but he probably can't create the explosives that Samuel and Kittle can. Ricky Pearsall ($4800 DK, $8000 FD) has talent but is probably in a difficult spot here between Purdy's injury and the weather. Kyle Juszczyk ($2000 DK, $6000 FD) sometimes gets work out of the backfield, but usually on low volume and on an unpredictable basis.

KICKER

Tyler Bass ($5400 DK, $8500 FD) has only attempted one field goal beyond 40 yards in his 11 games played in December or later, so especially with this weather it seems unlikely that Bass will get the opportunity to kick anything other than chip shots. That's not ideal for his fantasy value, though he has been otherwise accurate with his winter (short-range) kicking.

Bass is seasoned for situations like these, but Jake Moody ($5200 DK, $8500 FD) has less experience in brutal situations like this, even after playing at Michigan in college. Moreover, the 49ers offense does not project for many scoring opportunities in this game. Moody seems like a decent kicker who might improve with time, but the current circumstances don't seem favorable.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

San Francisco ($3200 DK, $9000 FD) will almost certainly play with a hot motor to start the game, but they might struggle to hold the point of attack as the game goes on. Both the offense and the defense are badly wounded for San Francisco, and the defense might need to spend a lot of time on the field as a result. The absences of Nick Bosa and Deommodore Lenoir are compounded by Fred Warner playing with a broken bone in his ankle, creating a uniquely desperate situation for the 49ers at an especially inopportune time.

The Bills ($5000 DK, $9000 FD) defense is probably better situated to produce fantasy points here. The 49ers need to be taken seriously, but they're also walking badly wounded. This sort of setting should be one where the Bills defense is in its preferred element, and the 49ers will never be more vulnerable.