NFL Game Previews: Tuesday Night Matchups

Seattle (+4.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 45.5 – Tuesday, 7 p.m. EST

While hindsight is usually 20/20, it's fair to wonder what the Seahawks' season might end up looking like if Russell Wilson hadn't rushed back into the lineup after his finger injury. He only missed three games plus had the bye week to recover, but it took him three more games (all losses) before he regained something close to his usual form, and the last of those losses was to a very beatable Washington team. Had Geno Smith lost those first two, and a fully fit Russ come back firing in Week 12 ... ? Given the state of the wild-card picture in the NFC, they'd be right in the mix at 6-7. At 5-8, they need a ton of help to make the postseason. At least Wilson looks good now, posting a 6:1 TD:INT, 69.8 percent completion rate and a 7.7 YPA in his last three games and leading Seattle to 30-plus points in the last two. The Rams could be back in control of their own destiny despite their three-game swoon in November, as the Cards' shocking loss to the Lions on Sunday gives Los Angeles an opening to move back atop the NFC West (the two teams split their season series, but at the moment the Rams have only three conference losses while the Cards have four). Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp continue to be pillars of stability for the offense, as the QB just reached 4,000 passing yards for the season and has a 9:1 TD:INT and 8.3 YPA over three games since the team's bye, while the wideout will look to make history Tuesday by becoming the first player in the Super Bowl era with 90-plus receiving yards in 10 consecutive games. He rang up 92 against the Seahawks in Week 5 to begin the streak, so this is a fitting opponent to go for the record against.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RB Alex Collins (questionable, COVID-19), WR Tyler Lockett (doubtful, COVID-19), RT Brandon Shell (doubtful, COVID-19), DE Kerry Hyder (doubtful, COVID-19), CB D.J. Reed (doubtful, COVID-19)

LAR injuries: TE Tyler Higbee (doubtful, COVID-19), C Brian Allen (questionable, knee), RT Rob Havenstein (questionable, COVID-19), OLB Von Miller (questionable, COVID-19), S Jordan Fuller (questionable, COVID-19), S Jordan Fuller (questionable, COVID-19)

SEA DFS targets: none

LAR DFS targets: Stafford (SEA 28th in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing yards per game allowed)

SEA DFS fades: Rashaad Penny (LAR second in rushing DVOA, third in YPC allowed), Gerald Everett (LAR fourth in DVOA vs. TE), Seahawks DEF (LAR third in sacks allowed, t-4th in points per game)

LAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA is 29th in third-down conversions at 34.5 percent; LAR are 26th in third-down defense at 43.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 8-4 LAR, average score 23-19 LAR, average margin of victory 11 points. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by more than one score

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Penny manages 60 yards. Wilson throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, hitting DK Metcalf (who tops 100 yards) twice and Dee Eskridge once. Darrell Henderson racks up 110 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Stafford throws for 320 yards and two more TDs, finding Kupp (who records his 10th straight 90-plus yard performance) and Odell Beckham. Rams 34-24

Washington (+7) at Philadelphia, o/u 44.0 – Tuesday, 7 p.m. EST

Both these teams are in the wild-card mix at 6-7, but the lead-up to this game could not have gone worse for Washington. Coming off being dominated by the Dallas defense, Washington's roster was banged up even before COVID-19 swept through the locker room, and the team now faces the prospect of playing this one with a quarterback just signed off someone else's practice squad a few days ago, with that quarterback taking snaps from a third-string center. The NFL pushing the game to Tuesday does give time for Taylor Heinicke, or even Kyle Allen, to clear the protocols, but it also gives Jalen Hurts a couple extra days to recover from his ankle injury. The Eagles won't be in bad shape if Gardner Minshew gets another start, but Hurts' scrambling adds an element of danger to the offense few other QBs can bring to the table — he's rushed for more than 50 yards in six consecutive games, and if he's healthy for the stretch run he's got a shot at 1,000 yards and 10 TDs on the ground this season, a combo not even Lamar Jackson has managed yet in his career. His passing numbers are, of course, far less impressive, but if he's facing Garrett Gilbert, he may not need to air it out much.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: QB Heinicke (questionable, COVID-19), QB Allen (questionable, COVID-19), RB J.D. McKissic (out, concussion), WR Curtis Samuel (out, hamstring), TE Ricky Seals-Jones (questionable, illness), C Tyler Larsen (doubtful, COVID-19/Achilles), RG Brandon Scherff (questionable, ankle), RT Cornelius Lucas (questionable, COVID-19), K Joey Slye (IR, hamstring), CB Kendall Fuller (questionable, COVID-19), S Kamren Curl (questionable, COVID-19)

PHI injuries: QB Hurts (questionable, ankle), LG Landon Dickerson (doubtful, COVID-19), RG Brandon Brooks (IR, pectoral)

WAS DFS targets: Seals-Jones (PHI 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

PHI DFS targets: Hurts (WAS 30th in TD% allowed, 30th in rushing yards allowed to QBs), Jalen Reagor (WAS 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)

WAS DFS fades: none

PHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: PHI is fourth in third-down conversions at 45.5 percent; WAS is 31st in third-down defense at 48.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 PHI, average score 26-21 PHI, average margin of victory 11 points. WAS has won two straight meetings after losing six straight, and six of the last eight meetings have been decided by double-digit points

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Antonio Gibson runs for 70 yards and a TD. Gilbert gets the start and throws for less than 200 yards. Miles Sanders picks up 80 yards. Hurts throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to DeVonta Smith while running for 60 yards and a score of his own. Eagles 23-10

Las Vegas at Cleveland (+1.5), o/u 38.5 – Monday, 5 p.m. EST

I've now run the numbers on this game with three different Cleveland quarterbacks, and it hasn't really made much difference. (Hey, Nick Mullens has some solid performances for the Niners). I'm not sure whether that says more about the Cleveland offense, or the general state of Las Vegas at the moment. They've lost five of six to fall to the bottom of the AFC West, and their win on Thanksgiving over the Cowboys is looking more and more like Julie Hagerty hitting 22 that one time. They're also an indoor team playing on the shores of Lake Erie in mid-December, but at least Josh Jacobs has been playing a little better — he's got a 4.0 YPC since the Raiders' bye, a big improvement on the 3.4 he managed before it. He's no Nick Chubb though, and that talent gap could easily wind up making the difference here, despite the fact the Browns' roster will likely be gutted by COVID-19 absences. Chubb won't have his usual running buddy Kareem Hunt with him, but D'Ernest Johnson has proven capable of handling whatever work the Browns toss him, and hammering away on the ground against a defense that's been gashed by the likes of Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson and, uhh, Derrick Gore in recent weeks will keep a short-handed defense off the field and make life easier on Mullens, or whoever winds up under center.

The Skinny

LV injuries: TE Darren Waller (out, knee), LG Richie Incognito (IR, calf), LB Denzel Perryman (out, ankle), CB Trayvon Mullen (out, toe)

CLE injuries: QB Baker Mayfield (doubtful, COVID-19), QB Case Keenum (out, COVID-19), RB Hunt (out, ankle), WR Jarvis Landry (doubtful, COVID-19), WR Anthony Schwartz (out, concussion), TE Austin Hooper (doubtful, COVID-19), TE Harrison Bryant (questionable, ankle), LT Jedrick Wills (doubtful, COVID-19), RG Wyatt Teller (doubtful, COVID-19), RT James Hudson (doubtful, COVID-19), DE Jadeveon Clowney (doubtful, COVID-19), LB Anthony Walker (questionable, COVID-19), CB Greg Newsome (out, concussion), S Ronnie Harrison (out, COVID-19), S John Johnson (doubtful, COVID-19)

LV DFS targets: Zay Jones (CLE 25th in DVOA vs. WR2)

CLE DFS targets: Chubb (LV 26th in rushing yards per game allowed, t-25th in rushing TDs allowed, 25th in passing DVOA vs. RB), David Njoku (LV 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

LV DFS fades: Jalen Richard (CLE third in passing DVOA vs. RB), Raiders DEF (t-28th in takeaways, 31st in points per game allowed)

CLE DFS fades: none

Key stat: CLE is t-16th in red-zone conversions at 59.5 percent; LV is 32nd in red-zone defense at 77.1 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 30s, 8-10 mph wind, 15-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Jacobs puts together 80 combined yards and a score. Derek Carr throws for 230 yards and a TD to Hunter Renfrow. Chubb thunders for 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Mullens throws for 240 yards and a score to Njoku, but Johnson loses a fumble that Yannick Ngakoue returns to the house, keeping things close. Browns 23-21

Minnesota at Chicago (+3.5), o/u 44.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

At the moment, the Vikings are a tiebreaker away from a wild-card spot, thanks basically to their loss to the Lions — Washington is 5-3 in conference games, while Minnesota is 4-4. That would be a fitting way for the team to miss out on the playoffs, as their inability to close out games and uncanny knack for playing up or down to the level of their competition has them mired in mediocrity. Last week's win over the Steelers was a vintage Vikings victory – jump out to an early lead against a team that struggles to score points, fall asleep in the second half and cough up an improbably late comeback, then hang on by the skin of your teeth. They're still averaging over 30 points a game over their last six, but have gone just 3-3 over that stretch. If nothing else says Mike Zimmer's time in Minnesota is over, it's the fact that they can't even win consistently with the offense playing at an elite level. The Bears are knocking on the door of a top-five pick at 4-9, or they would be if they hadn't sent their first-rounder in 2022 to the Giants to get Justin Fields. Whoops. Fields at least looks like he might develop into a starting-caliber QB under whoever is coach after Matt Nagy, but like the Vikings, the Bears' defense is a shell of its usual self. They coughed up 78 points in back-to-back losses to the Packers and Cardinals, the fourth and fifth times they've been tagged for 30-plus points this season (the Rams, Bucs and Niners being the others). It's basically a rite of passage for a top offense to steamroll Chicago this season, and in full disclosure I had Minnesota topping 30 here too, until I saw the weather report. I have to dock an indoor team something for playing in freezing conditions. I'm sure they'll find a way to keep it closer than what I've got below, though, through a muffed punt or bad pick-six by Kirk Cousins or something else equally ridiculous.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: RB Alexander Mattison (out, COVID-19), WR Adam Thielen (questionable, ankle), DE Everson Griffen (out, personal), LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, back)

CHI injuries: RB Tarik Cohen (out, knee), WR Allen Robinson (doubtful, COVID-19), WR Marquise Goodwin (questionable, foot), TE Jimmy Graham (questionable, knee), LT Jason Peters (doubtful, ankle), RT Germain Ifedi (IR, knee), RT Larry Borom (questionable, COVID-19), LB Roquan Smith (questionable, hamstring), CB Artie Burns (doubtful, COVID-19), S Eddie Jackson (doubtful, COVID-19)

MIN DFS targets: Justin Jefferson $8,500 DK / $8,600 FD (CHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Vikings DEF $3,300 DK / $4,400 FD (first in sacks, CHI 31st in sacks allowed)

CHI DFS targets: David Montgomery $5,900 DK / $6,500 FD (MIN 26th in rushing DVOA, 31st in YPC allowed)

MIN DFS fades: none

CHI DFS fades: Bears DEF $2,900 DK / $3,400 FD (t-30th in takeaways, MIN second in sacks allowed, third in giveaways)

Key stat: MIN is sixth in red-zone conversions at 65.1 percent; CHI is t-14th in red-zone defense at 57.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 MIN, average score 19-19, average margin of victory 10 points. CHI has won five of the last six meetings, while the road team has won three straight

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 30s, 9-10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop Dalvin Cook thunders for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Cousins throws for 240 yards and a TD to Jefferson. Montgomery puts together 80 yards and a score. Fields throws for under 200 yards and runs for 40, tossing a touchdown to Darnell Mooney. Vikings 24-14

Dallas at N.Y. Giants (+10.5), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Just as nobody expected at the beginning of the season, the Cowboys defense is the talk of the league. DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory are both healthy coming off the edge, people like Jayron Kearse are having career years in the secondary, and, oh yeah, then there's that Micah Parsons kid you may have heard of. It's a good thing the unit has stepped up, as the offense is stuck in neutral with Dak Prescott maybe not 100 percent healthy (I don't even think it's a maybe ... his misses are usually sailing high, which suggests mechanical/plant-leg issues). Ezekiel Elliott is definitely not 100 percent, and Tyron Smith is also on the shelf again. It's always a nice problem to have when both units have proven they can be elite but simply haven't been in sync, and with the NFC East almost sewn up, this could be the team no one wants to face in the playoffs if Prescott can get back on track. As for the Giants, they've lost consecutive games since Daniel Jones went down, but it's not like they were doing much before that. Saquon Barkley is also struggling to regain his prior form, but whether that's due to him being worn down by all his injuries, an offensive line that's once again pretty bad, or the general disarray of an offense that ditched Jason Garrett for Freddie Kitchens, it's impossible to say. This has been a very one-sided rivalry in recent years, and while Dallas can play down to anyone's level, it's more likely to use this game as a springboard.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: RB Tony Pollard (questionable, foot), LT Tyron Smith (out, ankle), S Donovan Wilson (IR, shoulder)

NYG injuries: QB Jones (out, neck), WR Sterling Shepard (questionable, calf), WR Kadarius Toney (doubtful, COVID-19), DE Leonard Williams (questionable, triceps), CB Adoree' Jackson (out, COVID-19), S Xavier McKinney (questionable, COVID-19)

DAL DFS targets: Cowboys DEF $3,600 DK / $4,600 FD (second in takeaways, NYG t-28th in points per game)

NYG DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: none

NYG DFS fades: Kenny Golladay $5,300 DK / $5,400 FD (DAL first in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: NYG are 23rd in third-down conversions at 37.5 percent; DAL is first in third-down defense at 30.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 DAL, average score 28-18 DAL, average margin of victory 11 points. DAL has won eight of the last nine meetings, with three of the last four DAL victories coming by 18 points or more

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, 14 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Elliott bangs out 70 yards and a touchdown. Prescott throws for 260 yards and two TDs, finding CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. Barkley gains 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Mike Glennon throws for 230 yards, gets sacked five times and throws two picks, one of which Kearse returns to the house. Cowboys 31-10

Houston (+3.5) at Jacksonville, o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

It would be so very Jags if they fired Urban Meyer just in time to spoil their shot at the No. 1 pick in next year's draft. Both these teams come in at 2-11, with only the Lions holding a worse record, and Detroit plays the Falcons next week, which is as close as it will get to a winnable game the rest of the way. If the Lions manage to climb to 2-12-1 in Atlanta, the loser of this Texans-Jaguars clash would almost certainly find itself in the driver's seat for the top pick in 2022. Houston does have Davis Mills back under center, and the rookie is coming off his third career 300-yard game, but he got there through sheer volume (6.8 YPA) not any particular skill. The Texans' defense has also given up more than 30 points in consecutive games, albeit against legit offenses (the Seahawks and Colts). Jacksonville's offense can't claim that tag, no matter who the head coach is — in seven consecutive games since its bye, it has failed to score more than 17 points. Trevor Lawrence and especially James Robinson will be glad to see the last of Meyer, but offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell is the interim head coach — the same guy who guided to a 2:6 TD:INT and 5.1 YPA over that seven-game stretch — so expecting a miracle overnight turnaround from the kid, or this team, might be asking a little too much. The Jags were in rebuild mode before Urban walked into the building, and there's still an awful lot of holes on this roster, even if the guys they do have to build around suddenly find that the sun is shining a little brighter over their heads this week.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: QB Deshaun Watson (out), RB Rex Burkhead (questionable, hip), WR Danny Amendola (IR, knee), TE Brevin Jordan (questionable, hand), LT Laremy Tunsil (IR, thumb), RG Justin McCray (doubtful, COVID-19), LB Christian Kirksey (doubtful, COVID-19), LB Kamu Grugier-Hill (doubtful, COVID-19/knee), CB Terrance Mitchell (doubtful, COVID-19), S Justin Reid (out, concussion)

JAC injuries: RB Carlos Hyde (out, concussion)

HOU DFS targets: Mills $5,400 DK / $6,800 FD (JAC 31st in passing DVOA, 28th in YPA allowed), Brandin Cooks $5,800 DK / $6,900 FD (JAC 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Nico Collins $3,500 DK / $5,300 FD (JAC 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

JAC DFS targets: James Robinson $5,400 DK / $6,300 FD (HOU 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed)

HOU DFS fades: none

JAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC is 27th in third-down conversions at 35.4 percent; HOU is 22nd in third-down defense at 42.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 HOU, average score 21-18 HOU, average margin of victory 14 points. Both JAC wins came in 2017, the season they nearly made it to the Super Bowl; otherwise HOU has won the last 13 meetings, with an average score of 25-12 during their current seven-game win streak

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: David Johnson collects 90 combined yards and a TD. Mills throws for 240 yards and a score to Cooks. Robinson dashes for 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Lawrence throws for 210 yards. Texans 20-13

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (+2), o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Full marks to the Titans for staying afloat without Derrick Henry, but they haven't exactly looked like division champs lately. Last week's shutout over the Jags was kind of a gimme, and they lost to the Texans a few weeks before that. They are still two games up on the Colts in the AFC South and hold the tiebreaker after sweeping the season series, though, so it's possible a win here locks up the crown for them if Indy loses to New England on Saturday. Ryan Tannehill has a 4:6 TD:INT and 6.1 YPA over his last five games, though, and at some point they might need more from him. The Steelers are still hovering around the fringes of the wild-card picture at 6-6-1, but at the moment there are three 7-6 squads that would be on the outside looking in, so they have a lot of work to do if they're going to give Ben Roethlisberger an appropriate swan song. Since he sat out that tie against the Lions, he has posted marginally better numbers including a 9:3 TD:INT in four games, but this is still a team that needs T.J. Watt and the defense, or sometimes the special teams, to do extraordinary things to give them a chance to win.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: RB Henry (IR, foot), WR A.J. Brown (IR, chest), LG Rodger Saffold (out, shoulder), LG Aaron Brewer (questionable, toe), LB David Long (out, hamstring), OLB Bud Dupree (IR, abdomen), CB Janoris Jenkins (out, ankle)

PIT injuries: LG Kevin Dotson (IR, ankle), C B.J. Finney (IR, back), DE Stephon Tuitt (IR, undisclosed), CB Joe Haden (questionable, foot) 

TEN DFS targets: D'Onta Foreman $5,200 DK / $5,800 FD (PIT 30th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in YPC allowed)

PIT DFS targets: Ray-Ray McCloud $3,300 DK / $5,000 FD and James Washington $3,500 DK / $5,100 FD (TEN 26th in DVOA vs. WR3)

TEN DFS fades: none

PIT DFS fades: none

Key stat: TEN is 10th in red-zone conversions at 62.5 percent; PIT is seventh in red-zone defense at 51.1 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Foreman grinds out 80 yards and a score. Tannehill throws for 240 yards and a TD to Julio Jones, his first as a Titan, but he also gets picked off twice. Najee Harris gains 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Roethlisberger throws for 250 yards and doesn't make any glaring mistakes. Steelers 19-17

N.Y. Jets (+10) at Miami, o/u 42.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Poor Jets. At 3-10, they're closer to falling out of the top 5 in next year's draft than they are to the top pick, but Zach Wilson's lack of development and injuries to offensive pieces like Michael Carter and Elijah Moore make it clear they still need all the draft help they can get. Carter at least figures to return this week, but the offensive line in front of him is in tatters so it may not matter much who's getting the touches. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have won five consecutive games, but they may have waited too long to get going to sneak into a wild card as they're still only 6-7 on the year and are still stuck with the Patriots as their Week 18 opponent. Tua Tagovailoa was looking pretty sharp headed into last week's bye, posting a 5:1 TD:INT, 80.0 percent completion rate and 7.1 YPA over his last three starts, and while he might not have Jaylen Waddle to throw to this week, the Jets' secondary has a way of making a lot of guys look like first-round talents.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: RB Carter (IR-R, ankle), WR Moore (IR, quadriceps/COVID-19), LT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee), LT George Fant (doubtful, knee), RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (questionable, ankle)

MIA injuries: RB Phillip Lindsay (doubtful, COVID-19), RB Malcolm Brown (IR, quadriceps), WR Waddle (doubtful, COVID-19), WR Will Fuller (IR, finger), S Jevon Holland (questionable, COVID-19)

NYJ DFS targets: Jamison Crowder $5,000 DK / $5,700 FD (MIA 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

MIA DFS targets: Tagovailoa $5,700 DK / $7,400 FD (NYJ 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in YPA allowed), Myles Gaskin $5,600 DK / $6,600 FD (NYJ 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed), Albert Wilson $3,400 DK / $5,000 FD (NYJ 31st in DVOA vs. WR3), Mike Gesicki $5,000 DK / $6,200 FD (NYJ 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

NYJ DFS fades: Jets DEF $2,500 DK / $3,200 FD (31st in takeaways, 32nd in points per game allowed)

MIA DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIA is ninth in third-down conversions at 41.9 percent; NYJ are t-23rd in third-down defense at 43.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 MIA, average score 22-15 MIA, average margin of victory 10 points. MIA has won five straight meetings at home

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 20-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Carter manages 60 scrimmage yards. Wilson throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Gaskin racks up 120 combined yards and two scores. Tua throws for 270 yards and two TDs, finding Gesicki and Mack Hollins. Dolphins 31-3

Arizona at Detroit (+13.5), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Last week's loss to the Rams sent the Cards tumbling out of the top spot in the NFC, as they now are third behind two other 10-3 teams (the Bucs and Packers). If the playoffs started this week, they'd be playing host to the 49ers instead of getting a first-round bye. Yikes. Making matters worse, DeAndre Hopkins is probably lost for the rest of the season, and while Arizona has the depth at wideout to survive without him, he's still a huge part of the offense. It's also not entirely clear who's going to be in the backfield this week, or how healthy they'll be. On the bright side, they're still playing the Lions. Their brief run of competence (1-2-1 over a four-week stretch, with the two losses coming by a combined five points) ended with a thud in Denver last week, and that victory over the Vikings marked the only time since Week 1 this offense has scored 20 or more points. D'Andre Swift has already been ruled out again and Jamaal Williams may not clear the COVID-19 protocols in time to suit up, but Craig Reynolds was surprisingly effective in their place against the Broncos. The problem for Detroit remains the passing game, as even when Jared Goff is feeling frisky, he has no one reliable to target, especially with T.J. Hockenson now done for the year.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: RB Conner (questionable, ankle), RB Edmonds (IR-R, ankle), WR Hopkins (out, knee), TE Zach Ertz (questionable, hamstring), LG Justin Pugh (questionable, calf), C Rodney Hudson (out, COVID-19), CB Robert Alford (out, pectoral)

DET injuries: RB Swift (out, shoulder), RB Williams (doubtful, COVID-19), WR Josh Reynolds (questionable, thigh), TE Hockenson (IR, thumb), LG Jonah Jackson (questionable, back), LB Alex Anzalone (questionable, ankle), CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (questionable, COVID-19), S Tracy Walker (questionable, COVID-19)

ARI DFS targets: Kyler Murray $7,900 DK / $8,800 FD (DET 30th in passibg DVOA, 31st in YPA allowed), Conner $6,400 DK / $8,000 FD and Edmonds $5,100 DK / $6,500 FD (DET 29th in rushing DVOA, 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Cardinals DEF $4,000 DK / $4,800 FD (fourth in points per game allowed, DET 30th in points per game)

DET DFS targets: none

ARI DFS fades: none

DET DFS fades: Amon-Ra St. Brown $5,200 DK / $5,900 FD (ARI third in DVOA vs. WR1), Brock Wright $2,800 DK / $4,500 FD (ARI third in DVOA vs. TE), Lions DEF $2,400 DK / $3,000 FD (31st in sacks, t-29th in points per game allowed, ARI t-4th in points per game)

Key stat: ARI is third in red-zone conversions at 67.3 percent; DET is 31st in red-zone defense at 74.4 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Edmonds leads the ARI backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving touchdown, while Conner adds 60 yards and a rushing TD. Murray throws for 300 yards and a second passing score to A.J. Green while running in a TD of his own. Reynolds manages 50 yards. Goff throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to St. Brown and Kalif Raymond. Cardinals 34-20

Carolina (+10.5) at Buffalo, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

It's hard to judge after one week, but it sure didn't seem like Joe Brady was the issue with the Panthers' offense during their Week 14 loss to the Falcons. Instead, it was the lack of a real starting quarterback and the Christian McCaffrey-shaped hole in the backfield that seemed to be the biggest problems. Cam Newton and P.J. Walker will continue to split snaps according to Matt Rhule, at least until Sam Darnold possibly makes it back, and which point who knows, maybe it'll be a three-way split. Would it count as a wild cat formation if Darnold and Newton were out there at the same time and it was a direct snap to Cam? Just think of the possibilities! The Bills are clinging to a wild card after stumbling through the toughest part of their schedule, but a closing stretch that includes the Jets and Falcons in addition to the Panthers should pull them out of their 1-3 tailspin. Of course, they also have a rematch with the Pats in Gillette Stadium, and any hope of an AFC East title is probably gone, but they could still make noise in the postseason. Josh Allen will need to tighten things up, though. He has an 12:10 TD:TO his last six games once you factor in rushing TDs and lost fumbles, and that's not a ratio likely to lead to playoff success.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: QB Darnold (IR, shoulder), WR DJ Moore (questionable, hamstring), LG Michael Jordan (questionable, hamstring), RG John Miller (questionable, ankle), CB A.J. Bouye (out, foot), CB Jaycee Horn (IR, foot)

BUF injuries: WR Emmanuel Sanders (doubtful, knee), LT Dion Dawkins (doubtful, COVID-19)

CAR DFS targets: none

BUF DFS targets: Stefon Diggs $7,700 DK / $7,800 FD (CAR 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Cole Beasley $4,900 DK / $5,800 FD (CAR 30th in DVOA vs. WR3), Bills DEF $3,100 DK / $4,900 FD (t-3rd in takeaways, third in points per game allowed, CAR t-30th in giveaways)

CAR DFS fades: Cam Newton $5,400 DK / $6,900 FD (BUF second in passing DVOA, second in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, first in TD% allowed), Robby Anderson $4,800 DK / $5,800 FD (BUF second in DVOA vs. WR2), Brandon Zylstra $3,000 DK / $5,000 FD (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)

BUF DFS fades: Gabriel Davis $3,700 DK / $4,900 FD (CAR first in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: CAR is 28th in third-down conversions at 34.9 percent; BUF is third in third-down defense at 33.7 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-20s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Chuba Hubbard leads the CAR backfield with 60 yards, while Ameer Abdullah adds 50 scrimmage yards. Newton throws for less than 200 yards but does run in a score. Devin Singletary leads the BUF backfield with 70 yards. Allen throws for 310 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Diggs (who tops 100 yards) and Beasley, while also one-upping Cam with two rushing scores. Bills 34-7

Cincinnati (+2.5) at Denver, o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

It's wild how quickly things change in the AFC North. A couple weeks ago, the Bengals looked like they were on their way to a division crown. Two home losses to the Chargers and Niners later, and they don't even sit in a wild-card spot. If Cincy fans are looking for a reason for optimism, this team hasn't won or lost more than two games in a row all season, so they must be due for a victory, right? It's probably not a coincidence that Joe Mixon has been held in check the last two weeks, but I won't even attempt to discern correlation from causation there. If anything, you could point to a shoulder injury to linebacker Logan Wilson as the biggest culprit, as the Bengals are 2-5 this year when allowing the opposition to pile up 350-plus net yards. That's a mark the Broncos have reached in two straight, as their running game has emerged as a juggernaut with rookie Javonte Williams finding his stride and pushing Melvin Gordon to try and keep up. Williams has 372 scrimmage yards and four TDs in three games since the team's bye; Gordon sat one of those out, and still has 194 rushing yards and two TDs in the other two. At 7-6, Denver's in the same boat as Cincy (good record, no wild card), and a closing schedule that features each of their AFC West rivals does the Broncos few favors, so they really can't afford to drop this one if they want to stay in the hunt.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: RT Riley Reiff (IR, ankle), RT Isaiah Prince (out, illness), LB Wilson (out, shoulder), CB Chidobe Awuzie (out, COVID-19/foot), CB Trae Waynes (IR-R, hamstring), CB Vernon Hargreaves (out, illness)

DEN injuries: RB Gordon (questionable, thumb), RB Williams (questionable, knee), RT Bobby Massie (questionable, hip), LB Kenny Young (doubtful, concussion), S Kareem Jackson (questionable, back)

CIN DFS targets: Tee Higgins $6,500 DK / $6,800 FD (DEN 25th in DVOA vs. WR1)

DEN DFS targets: Broncos DEF $2,900 DK / $4,000 FD (second in points per game allowed, CIN 30th in sacks allowed)

CIN DFS fades: none

DEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: CIN is eighth in red-zone conversions at 63.2 percent; DEN is eighth in red-zone defense at 51.7 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mixon puts together 70 combined yards. Joe Burrow throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, both to Higgins. Williams totes up 100 scrimmage yards and a score, while Gordon adds 80 yards and a TD. Teddy Bridgewater throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Noah Fant. Broncos 27-23

Atlanta (+9) at San Francisco, o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

At the moment, the Falcons are only missing out on a playoff spot due to tiebreakers, which isn't bad for a team that was getting dismantled by the Cowboys and Patriots not too long ago (combined score in those back-to-back losses: 68-3). You could argue that was Atlanta bottoming out, but this is still a team that has zero victories against teams that would be in the postseason if it started this week — their "signature" wins came against the 6-7 Dolphins in Week 7 and the 6-7 Saints in Week 9. Kyle Pitts continues to put up good numbers for a rookie tight end, but the operative word there is "rookie." He also has only one TD all year, and it came back in Week 5 against the Jets so it barely counts. Of course, Matt Ryan doesn't have a lot of other options to throw to, which either makes you excited for Pitts future once defenses can't key on him, or gets you wondering what it is about Atlanta that stops the team's top pass-catcher from ever scoring touchdowns. The Niners are in a wild-card spot after winning four of five, and a closing schedule that includes the Texans as well as the Falcons seems to have them in pretty good shape. Deebo Samuel has emerged as the new Elijah Mitchell, who was the new Raheem Mostert, and the "wideout" has five rushing TDs in his last four games. That's given room for George Kittle to re-emerge as the team's top downfield threat, and he's topped 150 receiving yards in back-to-back games. Kyle Shanahan's talent development skills rightly catch a lot of flak, but it's hard to argue with his ability to put the guys he trusts in position to succeed.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: WR Calvin Ridley (out, personal)

SF injuries: RB Mitchell (out, knee), DE Dee Ford (IR, back), LR Dre Greenlaw (out, groin), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (doubtful, elbow), CB Emmanuel Moseley (IR, ankle), S Jaquiski Tartt (questionable, lower body)

ATL DFS targets: none

SF DFS targets: Jimmy Garoppolo $5,800 DK / $6,700 FD (ATL 29th in passing DVOA, 29th in TD% allowed), Brandon Aiyuk $6,300 DK / $6,600 FD (ATL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

ATL DFS fades: Pitts $5,500 DK / $5,800 FD (SF second in DVOA vs. TE), Falcons DEF $2,700 DK / $3,500 FD (32nd in sacks, t-29th in points per game allowed)

SF DFS fades: none

Key stat: SF is first in red-zone conversions at 73.0 percent; ATL is 28th in red-zone defense at 68.8 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Cordarrelle Patterson gains 80 combined yards and a TD. Ryan throws for 260 yards and two scores, finding Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus. Samuel leads the SF backfield with 100 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving, while Jeff Wilson also punches in a short score. Garoppolo throws for 280 yards and a second TD to Kittle. 49ers 34-24

Green Bay at Baltimore (+5.5), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

It looks like injuries might deny us a battle between the last two MVPs, and it isn't even Aaron Rodgers' toe that's the biggest issue. Lamar Jackson hasn't practiced all week due to an ankle sprain, and while the Ravens haven't yet ruled him out, chances are Tyler Huntley will get the nod instead. That's great news for the Packers, who are the No. 1 seed in the NFC and need every win they can get to stay there. Green Bay's offensive line is in rough shape, but trying to ride out the game behind the running game is playing into the hands of Baltimore defense, who would like nothing better than to not have Rodgers carve up their patchwork secondary. Of course, the Ravens' O-line isn't in any better shape, so this game could well be decided by which pass rush can get home more often. They're still clinging to the lead in the AFC North, one game up on the Browns and Bengals despite losing consecutive games, and John Harbaugh probably deserves some Coach of the Year consideration for the job he's done despite an avalanche of injuries all over the roster right from training camp. No backfield? No offensive line? No secondary? No probl ... well, OK, some problems, but lesser teams and coaches might be looking at a 4-9 record right about now given all the attrition. Beating Rodgers and the Pack without even Lamar to lead the way is probably asking too much, though.

The Skinny

GB injuries: WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (questionable, back), WR Randall Cobb (IR, groin), WR Equanimeous St. Brown (doubtful, concussion), LT David Bakhtiari (out, back), C Josh Myers (IR, knee), RT Billy Turner (out, knee), OLB Za'Darius Smith (IR, back), CB Jaire Alexander (IR, shoulder)

BAL injuries: QB Jackson (questionable, ankle), WR Marquise Brown (questionable, illness), LT Alejandro Villanueva (questionable, knee), LG Ben Powers (out, foot), LG Tyre Phillips (questionable, illness), RT Patrick Mekari (questionable, hand), DE Calais Campbell (doubtful, thigh), S Chuck Clark (doubtful, COVID-19)

GB DFS targets: Valdes-Scantling $4,900 DK / $5,500 FD (BAL 27th in DVOA vs. WR2) 

BAL DFS targets: none

GB DFS fades: Aaron Jones $6,600 DK / $7,500 FD and AJ Dillon $5,700 DK / $7,500 FD (BAL first in rushing yards per game allowed, fourth in YPC allowed)

BAL DFS fades: Rashod Bateman $5,000 DK / $5,800 FD (GB second in DVOA vs. WR3), Ravens DEF $2,500 DK / $3,800 FD (t-30th in takeaways, GB t-1st in giveaways)

Key stat: GB is 11th in yards per play at 5.77; BAL is 31st in yards per play allowed at 5.91

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, 13-14 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Jones leads the GB backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown, while Dillon adds 40 yards. Rodgers throws for 290 yards and two more scores, hitting Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. Devonta Freeman picks up 70 yards and a TD. Huntley throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice but does run in his first career NFL rushing touchdown. Packers 30-17

New Orleans (+11) at Tampa Bay, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

It took a game against the Jets to do it, but the Saints finally got back into the win column last week. Their reward? A road game against the defending champs. At 6-7 they aren't out of the playoff picture, but their recent form doesn't make it seem like they're much of a threat, and while Taysom Hill's legs might steal a couple playoff wins for some fantasy squads, his impact on New Orleans' fortunes is likely to be a lot smaller. At least Alvin Kamara is back, as he rushed for triple digits last week for the first time since Week 4 against the Giants. If only there were more New York teams for him to face. The Bucs have won four straight to jump right into the mix for the top spot in the NFC, scoring at least 30 points in all four as Rob Gronkowski's return has gotten the offense back on schedule. We could find out just how fragile that formula for success is this week, though, as Leonard Fournette is less than 100 percent, and if Bruce Arians trusted Ronald Jones as a plug-n-play replacement the duo would already be working in a timeshare. This is mainly Tom Brady's offense, of course, but if the running game stumbles — and the Saints' front seven can make any running game look bad — it could knock everything out of whack for Tampa. All three of their losses have come when the team failed to rush for at least 75 yards.

The Skinny

NO injuries: WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey (questionable, hamstring), TE Adam Trautman (IR-R, knee), LT Terron Armstead (out, knee), RT Ryan Ramczyk (out, knee)

TB injuries: RB Fournette (questionable, ankle), RB Giovani Bernard (IR, hip), WR Antonio Brown (out, suspension), CB Richard Sherman (doubtful, Achilles), S Antoine Winfield (questionable, foot), S Jordan Whitehead (questionable, calf)

NO DFS targets: none

TB DFS targets: none

NO DFS fades: Saints DEF $2,300 DK / $3,500 FD (TB first in sacks allowed, first in points per game)

TB DFS fades: Fournette $7,600 DK / $7,800 FD (NO first in rushing DVOA, sixth in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed)

Key stat: TB is second in third-down conversions at 48.2 percent; NO is 10th in third-down defense at 37.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 8-4 NO, average score 30-22 NO, average margin of victory 13 points. NO has won six straight regular-season meetings by an average score of 34-18, including a 36-27 victory in Week 8

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Kamara glides for 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Hill throws for 220 yards and runs for 50 more, tossing a touchdown to Nick Vannett. Fournette plays but manages only 40 yards, while Jones gains 50. Brady throws for 310 yards and two TDs, finding Chris Godwin (who tops 100 yards) and Tyler Johnson. Buccaneers 26-14New England (+2) at Indianapolis, o/u 45.5
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

I would never dare to suggest a Bill Belichick team would get caught looking past an opponent, but if the Pats are going to have a letdown the rest of the way, this seems like the spot where it'll happen. They're two games up on the Bills in the AFC East, and a win against Buffalo next week would lock up the division regardless of what either team does with the rest of their schedule. New England's won seven consecutive games, though, and its only loss since early October came in overtime against the Cowboys when the Dallas offense was healthy and firing on all cylinders. The Pats also proved they could win without Mac Jones, limiting him to only three pass attempts in that Monday nighter against Buffalo played under nasty conditions and letting their elite defense and solid running game do all the work. That won't be an issue indoors this week, so look for the rookie to be unleashed again. That's not sarcasm, by the way. Jones had a 6:1 TD:INT, 8.8 YPA and 79.0 percent completion rate in the three games before the ball got taken out of his hands by the weather. The Colts are no slouches, though, winning four of their last five, including a victory of their own over the Bills, and their only loss in that time came against the defending champs. Jonathan Taylor hasn't been kept out of the end zone since Week 3, averaging more than 140 scrimmage yards and 1.8 TDs in his last 10 games as he storms toward a possible MVP award. Adrian Peterson was the last non-quarterback to win it, and he had to put together a 2,000-yard rushing season to do it, but if Taylor tops 2,000 scrimmage yards and is pushing 25 total touchdowns, it's will be hard to keep him out of the conversation. Indy's defense has been hit or miss — it held six of its last 10 opponents to less than 20 points, but the other four all scored 30 or more – and Carson Wentz remains capable of one of these performances at any time (coughforeshadowingcough), so if the Colts are going to make the playoffs or even catch the Titans in the AFC South, it will be on Taylor's shoulders.

The Skinny

NE injuries: RB Damien Harris (questionable, hamstring), C David Andrews (questionable, shoulder), RT Trent Brown (questionable, calf), K Nick Folk (questionable, knee), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, ribs)

IND injuries: C Ryan Kelly (questionable, knee), K Rodrigo Blankenship (IR, hip)

NE DFS targets: Jakobi Meyers $5,1000 DK / $5,900 FD (IND 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)

IND DFS targets: Nyheim Hines $4,000 DK / $5,200 FD (NE 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

NE DFS fades: Nelson Agholor $3,500 DK / $5,500 FD (IND third in DVOA vs. WR2)

IND DFS fades: Carson Wentz $6,000 DK / $7,800 FD (NE third in passing DVOA, third in passing yards per game allowed, second in YPA allowed, fourth in TD% allowed), Michael Pittman $5,900 DK / $6,800 FD (NE second in DVOA vs. WR1), Zach Pascal $3,300 DK / $5,300 FD (NE third in DVOA vs. WR3), Jack Doyle $2,900 DK / $5,100 FD and Mo Alie-Cox $2,400 DK / $4,700 FD (NE first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: IND is 22nd in red-zone conversions at 57.4 percent; NE is sixth in red-zone defense at 45.7 percent

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Rhamondre Stevenson leads the NE backfield with 70 yards, while Harris adds 50. Jones throws for 250 yards and a TD to Hunter Henry. Taylor gets held relatively in check, managing 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Wentz throws for 240 yards but gets picked off twice, one of which Kyle Dugger returns to the house. Patriots 23-13

Kansas City at L.A. Chargers (+3), o/u 52.0
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

This is the game most likely to decide the AFC West at this point. If Kansas City wins, they're two games up on the field with three to play; if the Bolts win, they'll draw even but would hold the tiebreaker, having swept the season series between these two. Patrick Mahomes and crew come in having won six straight, but he shouldn't get much of the credit as the defense has held all six of those opponents to less than 20 points, including the likes of the Packers and Cowboys. One of the keys to that defensive resurgence, Chris Jones, is among the KC players caught in the COVID-19 wave, however, and if he can't clear the protocols in time, their streak might be in jeopardy. Which is not to say the Chargers will be coming into Thursday at full strength. Keenan Allen's back from the COVID-19 list, but both Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams are banged up, as is Derwin James on the back end. Justin Herbert didn't miss a beat last week without Allen, though, and over his last four games he has an 11:4 TD:INT, 8.5 YPA and 70.9 percent completion rate — in other words, the kind of numbers you'd expect from Mahomes this time of year. By contrast, the KC superstar hasn't thrown a TD pass against anyone but the Raiders since Week 9, and hasn't tossed multiple TDs in a game against an opponent other than Vegas since Week 6. At some point, he needs to wake up if the reigning two-time AFC champs are going to be considered a serious threat to make the Super Bowl again.

The Skinny

KC injuries: DE Jones (doubtful, COVID-19), CB L'Jarius Sneed (out, personal)

LAC injuries: RB Ekeler (questionable, ankle), WR Williams (questionable, heel), TE Jared Cook (questionable, quadriceps), LT Rashawn Slater (doubtful, COVID-19), RT Bryan Bulaga (IR, back), S James (questionable, hamstring)

KC DFS targets: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (LAC 32nd in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 29th in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing TDs allowed)

LAC DFS targets: Ekeler (KC 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB, 27th in YPC allowed)

KC DFS fades: none

LAC DFS fades: Jalen Guyton and Joshua Palmer (KC first in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: LAC is t-10th in red-zone conversions at 62.5 percent; KC is 20th in red-zone defense at 61.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 KC, average score 28-24 KC, average margin of victory nine points. All three LAC victories have come in the last six meetings, ending a nine-game win streak by KC in the rivalry

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Edwards-Helaire dashes for 100 combined yards and a TD. Mahomes throws for 250 yards and two scores, finding Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Ekeler responds with 80 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving, while Justin Jackson also breaks off a long score. Herbert throws for 310 yards and a second TD to Allen (who tops 100 yards). Chargers 31-24

Last week's record: 10-4, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 131-76-1, 112-95-1 ATS, 95-111-2 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1245-748-7, 971-962-67 ATS, 705-755-28 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)