NFL Game Previews: Colts-Ravens Matchup

Indianapolis (+7) at Baltimore, o/u 46.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The Colts are only 1-3 after finally winning one last week but they're still very much in the race for the AFC South crown, which already looks like the only way any team in the division is going to get into the postseason. Unfortunately, their early season issues aren't going away — the offensive line remains short-handed, and while Jonathan Taylor has done his best behind a makeshift unit, the offense as a whole can't build any momentum and even failed to take advantage of their first tilt against the Titans. By the time guys like Carson Wentz and Quenton Nelson are 100 percent healthy, it might be too late. The Ravens are one weird overtime from being 4-0, and they've done it without Lamar Jackson putting up consistently huge numbers. His 8.7 YPA is strong and he's completed at least one throw of 40 or more yards in every game, but his 60.5 percent completion rate and 4:3 TD:INT aren't good by 2021 standards. The patchwork backfield is giving Latavius Murray a look in the lead role, but if he doesn't work out there are plenty of other veterans on the scrap heap to bring in. The offense's issues didn't matter much against the likes of the Lions and Drew Lock-led Broncos, but the Ravens might need a little more consistency on that front against better opponents. Whether this year's Colts qualify remains to be seen.

The Skinny

IND injuries: RB Nyheim Hines (questionable, shoulder), WR T.Y. Hilton (IR, neck), LG Nelson (IR, ankle), C Ryan Kelly (questionable, groin), RT Braden Smith (questionable, foot), LB Darius Leonard (questionable, ankle), CB Rock Ya-Sin (questionable, ankle), S Khari Willis (questionable, groin)

BAL injuries: WR Rashod Bateman (IR, groin), LT Ronnie Stanley (questionable, ankle), DE Derek Wolfe (IR, back), CB Marcus Peters (IR, knee), S DeShon Elliott (questionable, quadriceps)

IND DFS targets: none

BAL DFS targets: Sammy Watkins $4,600 DK / $5,500 FD (IND 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

IND DFS fades: Michael Pittman $5,200 DK / $5,800 FD (BAL second in DVOA vs. WR1)

BAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: BAL is t-6th in red-zone conversions at 72.7 percent; IND is t-22nd in red-zone defense at 71.4 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Taylor picks up 80 yards and a score. Wentz throws for 230 yards and a TD to Mo Alie-Cox. Murray runs for 60 yards and a touchdown, while Le'Veon Bell adds 60 combined yards. Jackson throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding Watkins and Mark Andrews, while running for 40 yards and a score of his own. Ravens 31-17

N.Y. Jets (+3) vs. Atlanta in London, o/u 46.0
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EDT

It's a wonder the NFL is even allowed back in the country when these are the kind of matchups the league offers its English fans. The Jets at least might have a bit of a coaching edge when it comes to preparing for overseas games — Robert Saleh was the Jags' linebackers coach for three years (they went 2-1 in London games while he was on the staff), but the Titans only played in the International Series once during Arthur Smith's stint with them, losing 20-19 to the Chargers in 2018 while he was still Tennessee's tight ends coach. Gang Green is also coming off their first win of the year, stealing one in OT against Smith's old crew as Zach Wilson looked like a credible second overall pick and Corey Davis had himself a revenge game. That momentum for the duo might carry across the pond, as Atlanta's defense is something of a mess, but there hasn't been much else going right for the Jets' offense. As for the Falcons, they probably should be 2-2, but that aforementioned defensive disarray reared its ugly head at the worst possible time in Week 4, and the unit somehow couldn't stop J.D. McKissic from scoring a 30-yard TD on a desperation screen pass inside the final minute of the fourth quarter. Imagine having Cordarrelle Patterson score three touchdowns on offense for you, and still losing. That takes a special kind of genius. Patterson's been the story for the Falcons with five total TDs (his career high is nine, set in 2013 as a rookie with the Vikings — four receiving, three rushing, two kickoff returns — and he hasn't had more than four since until this year), but that production still seems like a mirage. At some point guys like Calvin Ridley and, dare I say it, Kyle Pitts will start cashing in their own opportunities, leaving Patterson out of the equation.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: TE Tyler Kroft (out, back), LT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee), LB Jarrad Davis (IR, ankle), S Marcus Maye (out, ankle), CB Brandin Echols (questionable, concussion)

ATL injuries: WR Ridley (out, personal), WR Russell Gage (out, ankle)

NYJ DFS targets: Davis $5,600 DK / $6,200 FD (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR1, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws), Jamison Crowder $4,900 DK / $6,000 FD (ATL 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

ATL DFS targets: Olamide Zaccheaus $3,600 DK / $5,100 FD (NYJ 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), Falcons DEF $3,100 DK / $4,200 FD (NYJ t-30th in sacks allowed, 31st in giveaways, 32nd in points per game)

NYJ DFS fades: none

ATL DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYJ are 29th in red-zone conversions at 42.9 percent; ATL is t-22nd in red-zone defense at 71.4 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Michael Carter leads the NYJ backfield with 60 combined yards and a score. Wilson throws for 260 yards and TDs to Davis and Crowder. Mike Davis gains 80 scrimmage yards and a receiving score, while Patterson is held to 50 yards. Matt Ryan throws for 290 yards and a second touchdown to Zaccheaus. Falcons 23-21

Detroit (+7.5) at Minnesota, o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Backing the Lions here would be the contrarian-est of contrarian plays. There's really nothing to recommend them — along with the Jags, they're one of two winless teams left in the league; they're wracked by injuries; they're 24th in scoring and 29th in scoring defense; oh, and the Vikings have been trouncing them lately in this rivalry. Minnesota hasn't done much better this season, but they do have a win over a credible opponent (Seattle), are a lot healthier and aren't terrible at every aspect of the game. Dalvin Cook remains iffy, but Alexander Mattison came up big in Week 3 after Cook first got hurt, though neither back did much last week against the Browns. This has mainly been Kirk Cousins' offense through the first month, though, for better or worse. The QB is averaging more than 280 passing yards a game with a 9:1 TD:INT, and not only are Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen both off to strong starts to the season, guys like K.J. Osborn and Tyler Conklin have had flickers of value too. Against Detroit, that should more than enough.

The Skinny

DET injuries: RB D'Andre Swift (questionable, groin), RB Jamaal Williams (questionable, hip), WR Tyrell Williams (IR, concussion), TE T.J. Hockenson (questionable, knee), LT Taylor Decker (IR, finger), C Frank Ragnow (IR, toe), RT Penei Sewell (doubtful, ankle), Michael Brockers (questionable, shoulder), OLB Trey Flowers (questionable, knee), OLB Romeo Okwara (IR, Achilles), CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (IR, thigh)

MIN injuries: RB Cook (questionable, ankle)

DET DFS targets: none

MIN DFS targets: Cook $8,400 DK / $9,000 FD and Mattison $5,500 DK / $6,500 FD (DET 30th in rushing DVOA, t-26th in rushing TDs allowed, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Conklin $3,500 DK / $5,100 FD (DET 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

DET DFS fades: none

MIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIN is t-11th in red-zone conversions at 66.7 percent; DET is 29th in red-zone defense at 83.3 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 MIN, average score 25-19 MIN, average margin of victory 10 points. MIN has won seven straight meetings by an average score of 31-19

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Swift manages 60 yards. Jared Goff throws for 270 yards and two TDs, finding Quintez Cephus and Darren Fells, but he gets picked off twice and sacked four times. Cook picks up 70 yards and a touchdown, while Mattison adds 50 yards. Cousins throws for 310 yards and three scores, two to Jefferson (who tops 100 yards) and one to Conklin. Vikings 34-20

New Orleans at Washington (+1.5), o/u 44.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Saints didn't so much march back home last week as limp, and an overtime loss to the Giants was just plain embarrassing. Sean Payton clearly doesn't trust Jameis Winston yet — his season high for pass attempts is only 23 — so despite his 8:2 TD:INT and solid 64.0 percent completion rate, he's just a complementary piece in the offense. Maybe that will change when the receiving corps gets healthier, but for now New Orleans will only go as far as its defense will take it. Did I mention the unit just gave Daniel Jones his first career 400-yard passing game? Yeah, it's not good. It's still better than Washington's defense has played, though. What was supposed to be the strength of the Team That Plays Football, No The Other Kind has instead been its biggest weakness, and the club is 29th in yards allowed and 30th in points allowed. They'd be 1-3 if not for that heroic last-minute effort by McKissic, but at least the pressure that's putting on the offense is allowing Taylor Heinicke to solidify his claim to the starting job. A 69.5 percent completion rate and 8.1 YPA are a nice combination, particularly when one of his three starts came against the Bills.

The Skinny

NO injuries: WR Michael Thomas (out, ankle), WR Tre'Quan Smith (IR, hamstring), LT Terron Armstead (out, elbow), C Erik McCoy (out, calf), K Wil Lutz (IR, abdomen)

WAS injuries: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (IR, hip), RB Antonio Gibson (questionable, shin), WR Curtis Samuel (questionable, groin), WR Dyami Brown (out, knee), TE Logan Thomas (IR, hamstring), RG Brandon Scherff (out, knee), LB Jon Bostic (IR, pectoral)

NO DFS targets: Alvin Kamara $8,600 DK / $8,600 FD (WAS 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)

WAS DFS targets: none

NO DFS fades: Saints DEF $3,100 DK / $4,600 FD (t-30th in sacks, WAS second in sacks allowed)

WAS DFS fades: Gibson $6,400 DK / $6,600 FD (NO third in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed), Ricky Seals-Jones $2,500 DK / $4,900 FD (NO fifth in DVOA vs. TE) 

Key stat: NO is sixth in third-down conversions at 44.7 percent; WAS is 32nd in third-down defense at 59.7 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 70s, 10 mph wind, 5-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kamara zips for 130 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Winston throws for 250 yards and a second touchdown to Ty Montgomery. Gibson ekes out 60 yards. Heinicke has a big day, throwing for 320 yards and two TDs through the air to Terry McLaurin and McKissic, plus one on the ground, but he also loses a fumble that Pete Werner returns to the house. Saints 31-21

New England at Houston (+9), o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

You know, it doesn't feel like the season has really started until Bill Belichick has listed half his roster as questionable for a game and cut loose a prominent veteran he decided couldn't help him any more. The Patriots gave the Bucs a tussle last week but still came up short in the end, and that's been the story of their year so far — solid efforts, but only one win (and that against the Jets, so it hardly counts). Mac Jones has looked pretty much as advertised back when he was drafted, and while he might have been the rookie QB most ready to step into an NFL lineup, his 70 percent completion rate through four starts is balanced by a poor 6.3 YPA. Given the wideouts he's working with, it's hard to say whether all that dinking and dunking is due to nobody getting open downfield or whether Jones just isn't allowed to air it out, but given what Derek Carr got out of Nelson Agholor last season, I'd lean toward the latter. That script probably won't change either with potentially four-fifths of New England's starting offensive line out. As for the Texans' rookie quarterback, Davis Mills has started two games and led Houston to a grand total of nine points. He was dreadful against the Bills, and the folks who said he passed the eye test in Week 3 against the Panthers might be booking optometrist appointments right about now. There's been no indication whether Tyrod Taylor will be healthy enough to return next week, and the organization might want to keep Mills under center to ensure they have a higher draf ... I mean, decide whether the kid is part of the team's future, but neither guy has a lot to work with other than Brandin Cooks.

The Skinny

NE injuries: LT Isaiah Wynn (questionable, COVID-19), LG Mike Onwenu (questionable, COVID-19), RG Shaq Mason (out, abdomen), RT Trent Brown (out, calf), K Nick Folk (questionable, knee), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, shoulder), OLB Kyle Van Noy (questionable, groin), CB Jalen Mills (questionable, hamstring), CB Jonathan Jones (questionable, ankle), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, hamstring)

HOU injuries: QB Taylor (IR, hamstring), QB Deshaun Watson (out, limbo), WR Danny Amendola (questionable, thigh), WR Nico Collins (IR, shoulder), C Justin Britt (questionable, knee), RT Marcus Cannon (questionable, back)

NE DFS targets: none

HOU DFS targets: David Johnson $4,500 DK / $5,000 FD (NE 29th in rushing DVOA, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

NE DFS fades: none

HOU DFS fades: Cooks $6,100 DK / $6,300 FD (NE third in DVOA vs. WR1), Jordan Akins $2,500 DK / $4,200 FD (NE fourth in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: HOU is ninth in red-zone conversions at 70.0 percent; NE is eighth in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Damien Harris gains 80 yards and a TD. Jones throws for 240 yards and a score to Hunter Henry. Johnson leads the HOU backfield with 70 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Mills throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Patriots 17-10

Miami (+10) at Tampa Bay, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

So, OK, I know things look bad for the Dolphins as they stare down the barrel of a 1-4 start to the season, but Miami fans shouldn't give up hope. Well, they can probably give up hope of an AFC East title, but the playoffs aren't yet out of reach. Their next two games after this one are against the Jags and Falcons, with a tilt against the Texans two weeks after that and then two clashes with the Jets still coming in the second half. Having Tua Tagovailoa sidelined for the toughest stretch on their schedule almost inevitably led to a losing streak, and while the second-year QB isn't the second coming of Dan Marino, he's still a step up from Jacoby Brissett. Tua would also have a better shot at taking advantage of Tampa Bay's swiss cheese secondary. The defending champs are still at the top of the NFC South, but they look vulnerable, and Tom Brady has been held in check two weeks in a row by better defenses. The Dolphins haven't been in that group this year, but they do have the talent to come up with that kind of effort, especially if their $158 million starting cornerbacks are fully recovered from their nagging injuries.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: QB Tagovailoa (IR, ribs), WR DeVante Parker (questionable, shoulder), WR Will Fuller (IR, finger), C Michael Deiter (IR, foot)

TB injuries: RB Giovani Bernard (questionable, knee), TE Rob Gronkowski (out, ribs), OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (questionable, shoulder), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (IR, elbow), CB Jamel Deal (questionable, knee), S Antoine Winfield (out, concussion)

MIA DFS targets: Mike Gesicki $4,200 DK / (TB 25th in DVOA vs. TE)

TB DFS targets: none

MIA DFS fades: Myles Gaskin $5,100 DK / $5,600 FD and Malcolm Brown $4,000 DK / $5,000 FD (TB first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed, t-1st in rushing TDs allowed)

TB DFS fades: none

Key stat: TB is eighth in third-down conversions at 43.6 percent; MIA is 31st in third-down defense at 54.2 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-80s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Gaskin leads the MIA backfield with 40 yards. Brissett throws for 240 yards and a TD to Gesicki while running in a score of his own. Leonard Fournette bangs out 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Brady throws for 320 yards and three TDs, finding Mike Evans twice and Cameron Brate once, while Antonio Brown tops 100 yards. Buccaneers 31-20

Green Bay at Cincinnati (+3), o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

A somewhat surprising clash of division leaders, the Packers sit alone atop the NFC North already while the Bengals are in a three-way tie in the AFC North, but it's hard to say which team has looked better through the first month. Green Bay has that Week 1 embarrassment against the erratic Saints but have taken care of business since. (It's an indication of how bad they looked in that loss that the Pack are still underwater in point differential, even with a 3-1 record). Cincy, on the other hand, lost in Chicago and barely beat Jacksonville after spotting the Jags the first half, so they're hardly a juggernaut. Aaron Rodgers needs two TD passes to jump into fifth place on the all-time list at 422, but he'll have a little work to do after that to catch Brett Favre (508) for fourth. Joe Burrow is just a touch behind those guys, but 22 TDs in his first 14 NFL games is a great way to start a career, and he's off to a blistering start to his second campaign with a 72.9 percent completion rate and 9.2 YPA. He'll also get Tee Higgins back this week, while the Pack will be missing their top corner. Considering the unit's already had trouble slowing down the likes of Jameis Winston and Jimmy Garoppolo this year, Rodgers will likely have to out-score the kid, but when he has he ever put some upstart QB in his place before.

The Skinny

GB injuries: WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (IR, hamstring), LT David Bakhtiari (out, knee), LT Elgton Jenkins (questionable, ankle), C Josh Myers (out, finger), OLB Za'Darius Smith (IR, back), CB Jaire Alexander (out, shoulder)

CIN injuries: RB Joe Mixon (questionable, ankle), C Trey Hopkins (questionable, knee), RG Xavier Su'a-Filo (out, knee), DT Larry Ogunjobi (questionable, knee), CB Trae Waynes (questionable, hamstring)

GB DFS targets: none

CIN DFS targets: Ja'Marr Chase $5,800 DK / $7,300 FD (GB 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

GB DFS fades: Randall Cobb $4,000 DK / $5,500 FD (CIN second in DVOA vs. WR3)

CIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: CIN is fifth in red-zone conversions at 75.0 percent; GB is 32nd in red-zone defense at 100.00 percent (0-for-11)

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, 9-10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Aaron Jones picks up 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Rodgers gets his two TDs, throwing for 280 yards and scores to Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. Mixon plays but only manages 40 yards, while Samaje Perine adds 50 yards and a TD and Chris Evans catches a touchdown pass. Burrow rises to the challenge, throwing for 340 yards and three more scores, two to Chase (who tops 100 yards) and one to C.J. Uzomah. Bengals 38-24

Denver (+1) at Pittsburgh, o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Broncos fell on their faces last week, as the combination of facing a real opponent and having Drew Lock under center was too much to overcome. The defense still held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to a respectable 23 points, though, and Teddy Bridgewater appears to be on track to return from his concussion, so it could end up being just a one-week blip. Whoever is at QB is running out of receiving options, though. Two regular wideouts are on IR, two more are banged up, and even No. 2 tight end Albert Okwuegbunam, who I'm mentioning mainly to see if I can spell his name yet without looking it up ( ... nope), is sidelined. Fortunately, their opposition is probably more akin to the pushovers they faced through the first three weeks than Baltimore. The Steelers have been outscored 77-44 in three games since stealing that Week 1 win in Buffalo, albeit against playoff-caliber opponents, and they might be falling into a gatekeeper role this season. Their defense is still good enough to keep things close and win games against lesser clubs, but a broken-down Ben Roethlisberger just can't produce enough points behind a bad offensive line to beat the better ones. That makes this game a genuine test for Denver — which group do they actually fall into? Are they a legit postseason contender, or did they just pad their win total early in the year on their way to mediocrity?

The Skinny

DEN injuries: QB Teddy Bridgewater (questionable, concussion), RB Melvin Gordon (questionable, lower leg), WR Courtland Sutton (questionable, ankle), WR Jerry Jeudy (IR, ankle), WR Diontae Spencer (questionable, chest), OLB Bradley Chubb (IR, ankle), CB Patrick Surtain (questionable, chest)

PIT injuries: WR James Washington (out, groin), RT Zach Banner (IR, knee), DE Stephon Tuitt (IR, undisclosed), CB Cameron Sutton (out, groin)

DEN DFS targets: none

PIT DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: none

PIT DFS fades: Najee Harris $6,900 DK / $7,300 FD (DEN fifth in rushing yards per game allowed, second in passing DVOA vs. RB)

Key stat: PIT is t-26th in red-zone conversions at 50.0 percent; DEN is first in red-zone defense at 33.3 percent (4-for-6)

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Javonte Williams leads the DEN backfield with 60 yards and a score, while Gordon adds 40 yards. Bridgewater plays and throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Tim Patrick and David Moore. Harris grinds out 60 scrimmage yards. Roethlisberger throws for 250 yards and a TD to Diontae Johnson. Broncos 21-13

Philadelphia (+3.5) at Carolina, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

In a weird scheduling quirk this week, the bottom four defenses in DVOA against the other team's No. 1 wideout all play each other (the other such game is in London on Sunday morning). I'm actually not that surprised the Eagles are on that list — Darius Slay's reputation has always dwarfed his actual performance — and I guess the Panthers' presence explains why they keep bringing in name-brand corners, trading for CJ Henderson and now picking up Stephon Gilmore after he got dropped by the Patriots. At some point in the second half they could be rotating through those two guys plus Jaycee Horn (if he makes it back from foot surgery), A.J. Bouye and Donte Jackson at corner with Jeremy Chinn in that hybrid S/LB role, which would be an absolutely ridiculous secondary and one capable of handling oh, I dunno, a Super Bowl-winning offense with four Hall of Fame talents at WR and TE. Just sayin'. Anyway, Philly's offensive line is a shambles again with three starters missing, including left guard Isaac Seumalo, who's out for the year, so Jalen Hurts could be running for his life against a pass rush that's tied for second in sacks through the first month — which, granted, is when he seems to thrive. Christian McCaffrey doesn't seem quite ready to return yet, but Chuba Hubbard's been solid in his place and if Sam Darnold keeps up his Josh Allen impression in the red zone it doesn't much matter who the starting RB is.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: RG Brandon Brooks (IR, pectoral), RT Lane Johnson (out, personal)

CAR injuries: RB McCaffrey (doubtful, hamstring), LT Cameron Erving (out, neck), LG Pat Elflein (IR, hamstring), LB Shaq Thompson (out. foot), CB Horn (IR, foot), CB Gilmore (out, quadriceps)

PHI DFS targets: DeVonta Smith $5,900 DK / $6,000 FD (CAR 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1) 

CAR DFS targets: Hubbard $6,000 DK / $6,700 FD (PHI 28th in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed), DJ Moore $7,500 DK / $7,900 FD (PHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

PHI DFS fades: Hurts $7,000 DK / $8,100 FD (CAR fifth in passing DVOA, second in passing yards per game allowed), Jalen Reagor $4,200 DK / $5,300 FD (CAR first in DVOA vs. WR2)

CAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: PHI is t-10th in third-down conversions at 42.9 percent; CAR is first in third-down defense at 23.8 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Miles Sanders totes up 70 yards. Hurts throws for 240 yards and a TD to Smith while running in a score of his own, but he gets picked off twice. Hubbard gains 90 yards and a touchdown. Darnold throws for 280 yards and two TDs, finding Moore (who tops 100 yards) and Tommy Tremble. Panthers 30-17

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+4), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

There's been some big line movement this week, including this one, which originally opened at Titans minus-7.5 but was down more than a field goal to begin the week. On the one hand, I get it, as Trevor Lawrence finally showed flashes of living up to his billing last week. On the other hand ... Urban Meyer, lol. Tennessee also hasn't really shown it deserves to be favored by a touchdown against an NFL opponent, but the jury's still out on whether it has one this week. Whatever else is happening with the Titans, Derrick Henry just keeps plowing through defenses, topping 110 rushing yards in three consecutive games with four rushing TDs in that stretch. Oh, and he's catching passes now too on the regular, giving front sevens an even more impossible decision — sell out to stop the run and you risk getting sucked into play action, but drop back to try to stop the pass and you now might have to deal with a rampaging Henry in open space on a screen pass. He's basically the only reason they're even at .500, but 2-2 is still good enough for the top spot in the AFC South. The Jags have trouble beating their division rivals at the best of times, and well, this isn't the best of times. The team has lost 19 consecutive dating to last season, and tying or beating the all-time record of 26 set by the expansion Buccaneers seems well within reach. Think about last week's game — Cincinnati basically didn't show up until the second half, and they still won. The Titans aren't going to be spotting the Jags two quarters. Trevor Lawrence did look better, but he also lost one of his top wideouts in DJ Chark. If only he could lose his head coach too, but alas, the hefty buyout on Meyer's contract could keep him around well past the point he's completely lost the locker room.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: WR Julio Jones (out, hamstring), LT Taylor Lewan (questionable, toe), LB Jayon Brown (IR, knee), OLB Bud Dupree (questionable, knee)

JAC injuries: WR Chark (IR, ankle), CB Tyson Campbell (questionable, toe)

TEN DFS targets: Ryan Tannehill $6,400 DK / $7,200 FD (JAC 32nd in passing DVOA, 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed), Chester Rogers $3,900 DK / $5,100 FD (JAC 28th in DVOA vs. WR2), Anthony Firkser $3,100 DK / $4,700 FD (JAC 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

JAC DFS targets: none

TEN DFS fades: none

JAC DFS fades: Dan Arnold $2,900 DK / $4,800 FD (TEN first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: JAC is t-28th in third-down conversions at 33.3 percent; TEN is 14th in third-down defense at 39.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 TEN, average score 26-18 TEN, average margin of victory 14 points. Four of TEN's wins during that period have been by 21 or more points

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Henry rumbles for 130 yards and two TDs. Tannehill throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Firkser and A.J. Brown. James Robinson picks up 80 yards. Lawrence throws for 280 yards and a TD to Laviska Shenault but gets picked off twice. Titans 28-13

Cleveland (+1.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Three teams sit atop the AFC North at 3-1, but the Browns look like the cream of the crop. Their one loss could easily have been a win over Kansas City, and since that Week 1 defeat they've stomped whoever's been across from them. Baker Mayfield has done little and is playing through a labrum tear in his non-throwing shoulder, but frankly he hasn't been needed as the two-headed backfield and the defense have done the heavy lifting. Myles Garrett and the pass rush lead the league in QBs hits and are tied for second in sacks, and the defense as a whole is second to the Bills in yards per play around against a much tougher schedule than Buffalo's. The Chargers are also 3-1, also in a three-way tie for first in their division, and also look like the best of those three. Their defense has been merely good, but the Bolts are also getting a lot more out of Justin Herbert and their passing game, as last week's win over the Raiders was the first time neither had topped 100 yards or scored in a game this year. With Austin Ekeler potentially in line for a tougher afternoon, though, somebody will need to step up through the air.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: WR Jarvis Landry (IR, knee), TE David Njoku (questionable, knee), LT Jedrick Wills (questionable, ankle), C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), DE Garrett (questionable, knee), DE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, elbow), LB Anthony Walker (IR, hamstring), CB Denzel Ward (questionable, neck), CB Greg Newsome (out, calf)

LAC injuries: RT Bryan Bulaga (IR, back), LB Kenneth Murray (IR, ankle), CB Chris Harris (questionable, shoulder)

CLE DFS targets: Nick Chubb $6,700 DK / $7,500 FD and Kareem Hunt $5,800 DK / $7,000 FD (LAC 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPC allowed)

LAC DFS targets: none

CLE DFS fades: none

LAC DFS fades: Ekeler $7,600 DK / $7,700 FD (CLE second in rushing DVOA, third in rushing yards per game allowed)

Key stat: LAC are fourth in third-down conversions at 49.1 percent; CLE is 18th in third-down defense at 42.6 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Chubb racks up 110 yards and a TD, while Hunt adds 60 combined yards. Mayfield throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Austin Hooper. Ekeler manages 70 scrimmage yards. Herbert lights it up for 310 yards and three scores, hitting Williams twice and Allen (who tops 100 yards) once while also running in a TD of his own. Chargers 28-20

Chicago (+5.5) at Las Vegas, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Matt Nagy bowed to the inevitable and named Justin Fields his starter after the rookie didn't screw up last week's win over the Lions, but he didn't really contribute much to winning it either. That leaves the Chicago offense in a precarious position, as its one consistent contributor, David Montgomery, is now out for a while with a knee injury. A more comfortable Fields might be able to establish some chemistry with Allen Robinson, or maybe somebody like Cole Kmet begins to break out, but for the moment the team looks like it might only win games when the defense comes up big. That is, to be fair, Chicago-Style Football, and the Bears' pass rush has been shockingly good through the first month even with Khalil Mack not 100 percent healthy, but there's still no margin for error until Fields picks up the pace. The Raiders couldn't produce another miracle finish last week against the Chargers, but with two overtime wins in their pocket already, that luck was bound to shift the other way. They still look like a legit playoff squad, as Derek Carr had the passing game humming through the first three weeks against good defenses. Vegas' secondary has also been solid, and a unit which held both Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert to less than 240 passing yards should have no problem with Chicago's young signal-caller. Jackson did scamper for 86 yards, though, and even Jacoby Brissett found some success on the ground against the Raiders, so if there's a path to keeping things close for the Bears, it lies in Fields' legs not his arm.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: RB Montgomery (out, knee), RB Tarik Cohen (out, knee), DE Akiem Hicks (doubtful, groin), OLB Mack (questionable, ribs), LB Danny Trevathan (IR, knee), S Tashuan Gipson (questionable, hamstring)

LV injuries: RB Peyton Barber (questionable, toe), LG Richie Incognito (IR, calf), CB Trayvon Mullen (out, toe)

CHI DFS targets: Kmet $2,700 DK / $4,800 FD (LV 26th in DVOA vs. TE)

LV DFS targets: Raiders DEF $2,900 DK / $4,500 FD (CHI t-30th in sacks allowed, 30th in points per game)

CHI DFS fades: none

LV DFS fades: none

Key stat: CHI is 32nd in third-down conversions at 28.9 percent; LV is t-7th in third-down defense at 32.7 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Damien Williams leads the CHI backfield with 70 combined yards. Fields throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice but does add 50 yards on the ground. Josh Jacobs piles up 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Carr throws for 270 yards and three TDs, hitting Henry Ruggs twice and Hunter Renfrow once. Raiders 31-6

San Francisco (+5.5) at Arizona, o/u 50.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

This was another big mover, as this line had shifted a full field goal toward the Cards by the time I pulled spreads Wednesday, but why? There can't be that many Jimmy Garoppolo fans left in the world. Trey Lance will get his first NFL start, perhaps a little sooner than Kyle Shanahan wanted, but the third overall pick in this year's draft had his moments in relief last week as he tossed two TDs against the Seahawks. His mobility is still his best asset at this point, so the Arizona defense better hope all those practice reps against Kyler Murray have them ready. The Niners will also have both Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon healthy, so it'll be interesting to see who gets the nod in the lead role — there are reasons to think Sermon might be a better fit alongside Lance. With George Kittle placed on IR, San Francisco will probably lean even more heavily on its running game, in all its forms. The Cards are riding high after trouncing the Rams, both figuratively and literally as the only undefeated team left in the NFL. Murray's on an MVP pace, and it's his passing that's taken a huge step forward, making every receiving option at his disposal a threat to pop in any given game. (Side note: rumors of A.J. Green's demise appears to have been greatly exaggerated). J.J. Watt doesn't have a sack yet for Arizona, but he hasn't needed to be a difference-maker as the defense as a whole has done enough to keep the opposition from keeping pace with Kyler. It's almost to the point that the best response might be to simply keep him off the field, but of course, that's a lot easier said than done, even if a Shanahan offense would seem to be well-equipped to do it.

The Skinny

SF injuries: QB Garoppolo (out, calf), RB Jeff Wilson (out. knee), TE Kittle (doubtful, calf), DT Javon Kinlaw (questionable, knee), LB Dre Greenlaw (IR, groin), CB K'Waun Williams (out, calf)

ARI injuries: RB Chase Edmonds (questionable, shoulder), TE Maxx Williams (questionable, shoulder), RT Kelvin Beachum (questionable, ribs), CB Byron Murphy (out, ribs)

SF DFS targets: Sermon $5,000 DK / $5,800 FD and Mitchell $5,200 DK / $5,500 FD (ARI 26th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed)

ARI DFS targets: none

SF DFS fades: Ross Dwelley $2,700 DK / $4,400 FD (ARI second in DVOA vs. TE), 49ers DEF $2,800 DK / $3,700 FD (t-31st in takeaways, ARI first in points per game)

ARI DFS fades: none

Key stat: SF is 21st in third-down conversions at 37.5 percent; ARI is sixth in third-down defense at 32.6 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 ARI, average score 23-20 ARI, average margin of victory seven points. SF has won three of the last four meetings after losing eight straight, and the last nine meetings have been decided by 10 points or less

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Sermon leads the SF backfield with 110 yards and a TD. Lance throws for 230 yards and a score to Mohamed Sanu while running for 60 yards. James Conner leads the ARI backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown. Murray is fantastic once again, throws for 340 yards and three TDs to DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore while running for 50 yards and a score of his own. Cardinals 38-23 

N.Y. Giants (+7) at Dallas, o/u 52.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Welcome back, Saquon! The Giants' franchise back finally looked like himself last week, topping 100 scrimmage yards for the first time since his knee surgery and scoring twice, including the winning TD in overtime against the Saints. Having him back in top form gives offensive coordinator Jason Garrett the bell cow he needs to make his scheme work, and sets him up for a revenge game against Dallas. The fact that Daniel Jones seems have finally learned that turnovers are bad is a big deal too. On the other hand, the defense has been pretty bad, and if they need to keep relying on Jones to win shootouts, expect him to start coughing up the ball a little more often again. The Cowboys look like the class of the division at the moment, but this is the NFC East, and it's been a hot minute since any team has poked their heads much above mediocrity. The Dallas offense has looked great, but it's been the Kellen Moore Show more than anything — guys like Dalton Schultz, Tony Pollard and Cedrick Wilson are making impacts, and while Dak Prescott has tossed three-plus TDs in three of four games, he hasn't had a ton of yardage to go with it. The defense also hasn't been a pushover. Dan Quinn's unit is giving up yards, but as long as guys like Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs keep making big plays at crucial times (the Cowboys and the Bills are the only two teams with double-digit takeaways already), the yards won't turn into points. That may not be a sustainable formula, of course, but as long as Prescott is leading the offense to 30-plus a week, it's good enough.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: WR Sterling Shepard (out, hamstring), WR Darius Slayton (out, hamstring), LT Andrew Thomas (questionable, foot), LG Ben Bredeson (out, hand), S Jabrill Peppers (out, hamstring)

DAL injuries: RB Ezekiel Elliott (questionable, knee), WR Amari Cooper (questionable, hamstring), WR Michael Gallup (IR, calf), RT La'el Collins (out, suspension), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), DE Randy Gregory (questionable, knee), S Donovan Wilson (out. groin)

NYG DFS targets: Kadarius Toney $4,000 DK / $5,300 FD (DAL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

DAL DFS targets: Wilson $4,100 DK / $5,200 FD (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

NYG DFS fades: Kenny Golladay $5,900 DK / $6,200 FD (DAL first in DVOA vs. WR1)

DAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: DAL is t-2nd in third-down conversions at 50.0 percent; NYG are 24th in third-down defense at 44.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 DAL, average score 26-18 DAL, average margin of victory nine points. DAL had won seven straight meetings by an average score of 31-19 before a 23-19 victory for NYG in Week 17 last season

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Barkley piles up 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Jones throws for 290 yards and a TD to Toney but loses a fumble that Osa Odighizuwa falls on for a score. Elliott racks up 120 combined yards and a TD, while Pollard adds 60 yards. Prescott throws for 260 yards and two scores, finding CeeDee Lamb and Blake Jarwin. Cowboys 34-23

Buffalo (+2.5) at Kansas City, o/u 56.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The lesson the Bills seem to have taken away from their loss to the Steelers is to never let a game be close enough that a blocked punt might matter. Buffalo has annihilated its last three opponents by a combined score of 118-21, shutting out two, and everything seems to be clicking on all cylinders now. They even come into this week with no significant injuries. Shutting out Patrick Mahomes, of course, is a nigh-impossible task, but Kansas City hasn't exactly looked like a true Super Bowl contender either. The offense has been dangerous, scoring 33 or more points in three of four games, but the team is only 2-2 because the defense has coughed up at least 29 points in all four. The solution, naturally, is to bring in Josh Gordon to bolster the passing game behind Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Whether Gordon has anything left — he's 30 years old, and his last big game came in Week 9 of 2018 — won't matter as much to the team's fortunes as coordinator Steve Spagnuolo fixing things on the other side of the ball, and facing a Josh Allen-led offense isn't the best time to try and do it.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: none

KC injuries: DE Chris Jones (questionable, wrist), CB Charvarius Ward (questionable, quadriceps)

BUF DFS targets: Allen $8,100 DK / $8,800 FD (KC 31st in passing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards allowed to QB), Zack Moss $5,500 DK / $6,300 FD and Devin Singletary $4,700 DK / $5,700 FD (KC 32nd in rushing DVOA, 31st in YPC allowed, t-31st in rushing TDs allowed), Bills DEF $3,100 DK / $3,500 FD (first in takeaways, first in points per game allowed)

KC DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: none

KC DFS fades: Mahomes $8,200 DK / $8,700 FD (BUF first in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed), Clyde Edwards-Helaire $5,700 DK / $6,600 FD (BUF second in rushing DVOA, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed, t-1st in rushing TDs allowed), Hill $8,900 DK / $8,500 FD (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR1, first in DVOA vs. deep throws), Mecole Hardman $4,000 DK / $5,300 FD (BUF second in DVOA vs. WR2), Gordon $3,000 DK / $5,000 FD (BUF first in DVOA vs. WR3), Kelce $7,600 DK / $8,200 FD (BUF third in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: BUF is t-2nd in third-down conversions at 50.0 percent; KC is 22nd in third-down defense at 43.9 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Moss gains 80 yards and a TD, while Singletary adds 70 yards and a score. Allen throws for 300 yards and runs for 50, hitting Stefon Diggs (who tops 100 yards) for two touchdowns. Edwards-Helaire manages 50 yards. Mahomes throws for 280 yards and three scores to Hill, Hardman and Byron Pringle. Bills 34-27

L.A. Rams at Seattle (+3), o/u 54.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

Since I forgot to include the forever caveat last week, let's add it right off the top — Thursdays gonna Thursday. Regardless of which way the numbers point, a standalone game in which the teams only get four days to prepare is simply going to be prone to more volatility. With that out of the way, this game has more angles to consider than even Vizzini would know what to do with. The Rams not only lost last week, they got beaten pretty thoroughly by the Cards after coming into the game being hailed as the best team in the league, so they will clearly be looking for redemption and cannot lose. However, they also beat Seattle in this building in last year's playoffs, so the Seahawks also will be looking for redemption and clearly cannot lose. Seattle, which lost at home to the Rams in last year's wild-card playoff and lost at home Week 2 to the Titans, has never lost three consecutive home games since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, so it clearly cannot lose. However, streaks are made to be broken and they have to drop three straight home games at some point, so the Rams clearly cannot lose. Los Angeles is the healthier team, so it clearly cannot lose. Darrell Henderson can be knocked out of action by a stiff breeze, though, and Sony Michel isn't any more durable, so if the Rams' backfield crumbles, the Seahawks clearly cannot lose. Russell Wilson has yet to throw an interception; Jalen Ramsey has yet to allow a touchdown in coverage. Revenge game for Gerald Everett? Or maybe Robert Woods — who committed to USC in 2010 just before the NCAA slammed the Trojans with sanctions stemming from Carroll's time at the school, and who therefore never got to play in a bowl game? (Don't even get me started on Rams assistant QB coach Zac Robinson.) Conspiratorial rabbit holes aside, these are two dangerous offenses facing defenses that have had some weaknesses exposed early in the season, so on paper the game should be a shootout where the last possession wins. Or maybe Thursdays gonna Thursday, and it'll be a 9-6 snoozefest.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: none

SEA injuries: RB Chris Carson (questionable, neck), WR Dee Eskridge (out, concussion), TE Everett (questionable, COVID-19), C Ethan Pocic (IR, knee)

LAR DFS targets: Henderson $8,400 DK / $13,000 FD (SEA 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Woods $7,600 DK / $10,000 FD (SEA 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)

SEA DFS targets: Freddie Swain $4,600 DK / $6,500 FD (LAR 26th in DVOA vs. WR3)

LAR DFS fades: none

SEA DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAR are second in third-down conversions at 54.3 percent; SEA is t-16th in third-down defense at 40.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 7-4 LAR, average score 23-19 LAR, average margin of victory 11 points. SEA has been held to 20 or fewer points in four straight meetings, including a 30-20 loss at home in last year's wild-card game

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Henderson piles up 120 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Michel also vultures a score. Matthew Stafford throws for 300 yards and touchdowns to Woods and Cooper Kupp. Carson doesn't suit up, and Alex Collins leads the SEA backfield with 60 yards. Wilson throws for 330 yards and TDs to Swain, Everett and DK Metcalf, but it's not enough. Rams 34-30

Last week's record: 10-6, 7-9 ATS, 6-10 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 42-22, 33-31 ATS, 32-32 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1156-694-6, 892-898-66 ATS, 642-676-26 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)