This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Denver at New Orleans (+2.5), o/u 37.0 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
While they fell short against the Chargers last week, the Broncos have had a perfectly credible start to the season. They're 3-3, and each loss has been by a single score. The defense has done the heavy lifting — second in yards allowed per play, second in sacks despite the lack of an established big-name edge rusher (six Broncos have at least two sacks, but none more than the 4.5 for Jonathan Cooper, a seventh-round steal in the 2021 draft), fifth in QB rating against and first in red-zone defense are the highlights — which has bought time for rookie QB Bo Nix to settle in. After not throwing a TD but getting picked off four times in his first three NFL starts, he has a 5:1 TD:INT in his last three, and he's added surprising value with his legs (180 rushing yards and three scores). The offensive line is down to its second-string center and third-string right tackle, so Sean Payton likely will continue to have Nix get rid of the ball quickly rather than waiting for routes to develop, and that hasn't helped the running game get going either. It's a low-ceiling offensive approach, but it's the best one Denver has.
As for the Saints ... yikes. They came marching into the season with that dazzling 2-0 start, and then kept right on going straight into the infirmary. They head into Thursday's game
THURSDAY NIGHT
Denver at New Orleans (+2.5), o/u 37.0 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
While they fell short against the Chargers last week, the Broncos have had a perfectly credible start to the season. They're 3-3, and each loss has been by a single score. The defense has done the heavy lifting — second in yards allowed per play, second in sacks despite the lack of an established big-name edge rusher (six Broncos have at least two sacks, but none more than the 4.5 for Jonathan Cooper, a seventh-round steal in the 2021 draft), fifth in QB rating against and first in red-zone defense are the highlights — which has bought time for rookie QB Bo Nix to settle in. After not throwing a TD but getting picked off four times in his first three NFL starts, he has a 5:1 TD:INT in his last three, and he's added surprising value with his legs (180 rushing yards and three scores). The offensive line is down to its second-string center and third-string right tackle, so Sean Payton likely will continue to have Nix get rid of the ball quickly rather than waiting for routes to develop, and that hasn't helped the running game get going either. It's a low-ceiling offensive approach, but it's the best one Denver has.
As for the Saints ... yikes. They came marching into the season with that dazzling 2-0 start, and then kept right on going straight into the infirmary. They head into Thursday's game likely down their starting QB, top two wideouts and whatever you want to label Taysom Hill. New Orleans' offensive line is in worse shape than Denver's, and the defense is missing edge rusher Tanoh Kpassagnon, linebacker Pete Werner and safety Will Harris too. Rookie Spencer Rattler started under center last week and did OK against a Bucs defense that ranks 28th in passing yards allowed per game, but he also got picked off twice, which is going to happen when you're relying on a fifth-round rookie (Bub Means) and an undrafted rookie (Yale legend Mason Tipton, who I would have guessed was on the undercard for a Gore Vidal-William F. Buckley debate in 1968) to haul in your passes. Purely based on the season-long numbers, the Saints should win this one. They do still have Alvin Kamara, and weird things can happen on Thursdays, but this is a team fielding an offense that mostly wouldn't look out of place in the fourth quarter of a preseason contest. At least the kid receivers won't have to worry about Patrick Surtain.
Key Info
DEN injuries: WR Josh Reynolds (IR, finger), CB Patrick Surtain (out, concussion)
NO injuries: QB Derek Carr (doubtful, oblique), WR Chris Olave (out, concussion), WR Rashid Shaheed (out, knee), "TE" Taysom Hill (doubtful, ribs)
DFS Lineup Optimizer
DEN DFS targets: Javonte Williams
NO DFS targets: Alvin Kamara, Bub Means
DEN DFS fades: Courtland Sutton
NO DFS fades: none
Weather notes: indoors
The Scoop
Williams has his best game of the season, toting up 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Nix throws for 220 yards and a TD to Troy Franklin. Kamara gains 90 combined yards and a score. Rattler throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice again, but he does find Means for a touchdown. Broncos 17-14
Last week's record: 12-2, 9-5 ATS, 9-5 o/u
2024 record: 53-39, 41-49-2 ATS, 49-43 o/u
