NFL Game Previews: Monday Night Matchups

Let's get a couple things out of the way first. The first few weeks of this season could be even more chaotic than usual from a prognosticating standpoint thanks to the lack of preseason games or a normal training camp, and just the general miasma of 2020. The range of outcomes for all teams is going to be a lot wider, even if they are who you think they are. There are also some basic assumptions about lines and spreads that could prove to be way off. For instance, the rule of thumb regarding home-field advantage is that it's worth about three points. What's it worth in this season, though, with few or no fans in the stands to drown out play calls for the visitors and sway the officials? Two points, one point, nothing at all? Would it be all that big a surprise if road teams saw historic amounts of success in 2020?

Still, we have to make do with what we have, and what we think is true. So let's get down to it, boppers.

Pittsburgh at New York Giants (+6), o/u 47.5
Monday, 7:10 p.m. EDT

The Steelers squandered an amazing, team-wide defensive performance last year because they didn't have an adequate backup in place for an aging QB who'd apparently been playing through pain in his throwing arm for more than a decade, and then stubbornly stuck with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges under center after both had proven they didn't have what it takes. Having learned their lesson, the Steelers ... oh wait, no, they didn't. They just brought back Joshua Dobbs to replace Hodges rather than landing someone like Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton as Ben Roethlisberger insurance. That seems not smart. Sure, Roethlisberger says he feels better than he has in years after elbow surgery, and he threw for more than 5,000 yards in 2018 before getting hurt (on a massive 675 attempts ... hmm, wonder if there's some cause and effect there), but that's still an awful lot of faith to put in a 38-year-old arm. If Pittsburgh asks him to chuck it nearly, or even more than, 40 times a game again, it might not end well. The Giants have no such concerns with Daniel Jones as he enters his second season. Ball security concerns, on the other hand ... Jones lost an incomprehensible 11 of 18 fumbles in only 13 games last year, and no matter how big an arm he has or how good a scrambler he is, those kind of numbers will cost him his starting job if he doesn't clean them up. If he does learn to hang onto the ball though, he's got some good options to throw it to with three legit NFL-caliber wideouts plus Evan Engram at TE. Whether any  can emerge as a true go-to target is open for debate — WRs like Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate seem better suited to being No. 2 guys behind a dominant No. 1, instead of having to be matched up against elite corners themselves — but with Saquon Barkley attracting attention at the line, there should be room for them to roam in the secondary. GM David Gettleman continues to try and rebuild the defense with expensive pieces from other rosters, bringing in Leonard Williams, Markus Golden, Blake Martinez and James Bradberry over the last two years, but as yet the result has been less than the very pricey sum of its parts.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: RG David DeCastro (questionable, knee)

NYG injuries: WR Tate (questionable, hamstring), LT Nate Solder (opt-out), S Xavier McKinney (IR, foot)

PIT DFS targets: Roethlisberger (NYG 28th in QB rating against, 29th in YPA allowed in 2019); JuJu Smith-Schuster (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2019); James Washington (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2019); PIT DST (second in INT%, first in sack rate in 2019)

NYG DFS targets: Tate (PIT was 26th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2019)

PIT DFS fades: none

NYG DFS fades: Jones (PIT second in INT%, first in sack rate in 2019), Barkley (PIT third in YPC allowed, t-first in rushing TDs allowed, third in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019); Engram (PIT third in DVOA vs. TE in 2019)

Key stat: Without Roethlisberger, PIT was 32nd in red-zone conversions in 2019 at 35.0 percent, but with him under center the team was first in 2018 at 73.5 percent; NYG were 17th in red-zone defense in 2019 at 57.4 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 60s, 12 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop James Conner gains 90 combined yards and a TD. Roethlisberger throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to JuJu. Barkley gets held to 80 scrimmage yards. Jones throws for 260 yards and scores to Darius Slayton and Tate, but he loses a fumble on a T.J. Watt sack which Devin Bush returns to the house. Steelers 24-17

Tennessee at Denver (+2.5), o/u 41.0 – Monday, 10:20 p.m. EDT

Imagine what kind of numbers Derrick Henry could put up over a full season if he were to ever get off to a fast start. Last year he didn't get his first 100-yard rushing game until Week 4, and it was his only one before Week 10 — at which point he bulldozed for almost 900 rushing yards in his final six games. The 2018 campaign infamously saw him relegated to afterthought status in Matt LaFleur's offense until Week 14 before his year-ending seismic eruption. The Titans might be content to take it easy on him again in the early going (I mean, they did make the playoffs last year doing it) if Ryan Tannehill and the passing game keep clicking, but it's still fun to wonder what Henry's ceiling might actually be if Tennessee really pushed his workload. Monday's opener might be a good time to find out. Denver could be missing arguably its two most important players on both sides of the ball in Von Miller and Courtland Sutton, and while Drew Lock might get by leaning more heavily on his two-man backfield, Bradley Chubb probably needs a wingman as he completes the final stages of his recovery from last year's ACL tear.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: RB Darrynton Evans (questionable, hamstring), RT Isaiah Wilson (out, COVID), OLB Vic Beasley (questionable, knee), CB Adoree' Jackson (questionable, knee)

DEN injuries: WR Sutton (questionable, shoulder), WR KJ Hamler (questionable, hamstring), RT Ja'Wuan James (opt-out), OLB Miller (out, ankle), LB Mark Barron (questionable, hamstring)

TEN DFS targets: none

DEN DFS targets: none

TEN DFS fades: Adam Humphries (DEN fifth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2019)

DEN DFS fades: Jerry Jeudy (TEN second in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2019)

Key stat: DEN was 30th in third-down conversions in 2019 at 47.6 percent; TEN was eighth in third-down defense at 36.3 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Henry hammers out 90 yards and a TD. Tannehill throws for 250 yards and a score to A.J. Brown. Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay each gain 60 combined yards, but Gordon catches a TD pass. Lock throws for 200 yards and a second touchdown to Noah Fant. Titans, 23-17 

Dallas at Los Angeles Rams (+3), o/u 52.0 
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Cowboys sent Jason Garrett packing in the offseason, a long-overdue change at head coach after Garrett failed repeatedly to clap consistently talented rosters to any kind of postseason success. Former Packers head honcho Mike McCarthy takes over, and while he does have a ring, he didn't bring peak Aaron Rodgers with him to Dallas. Instead McCarthy will look to Dak Prescott, who may be slipping into that limbo reserved for really good QBs before they reach the Super Bowl and thus get branded as inferior to proven winners like Eli Manning and Joe Flacco. Prescott certainly has enough weapons around him to get the Cowboys there, and his arsenal got deeper when CeeDee Lamb fell into the team's lap in the first round of the draft. The Rams aren't hurting for offensive talent either, with second-round pick Cam Akers (eventually) projected to replace the departed Todd Gurley as the No. 1 man in the backfield. They won't get any crowd support as they christen SoFi Stadium, but it should still give the team an emotional lift as they take the wheel amidst that new stadium smell. Who wins this game, and indeed who has a better 2020, could depend on which top-heavy defense finds reliable contributors behind its stars.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: RT La'el Collins (IR, hip), LB Sean Lee (IR, sports hernia)

LAR injuries: none

DAL DFS targets: none

LAR DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: none

LAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: DAL was t-second in third-down conversions in 2019 at 47.1 percent; LAR were 18th in third-down defense at 39.4 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop Ezekiel Elliott busts out for 110 yards and a score. Prescott throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Blake Jarwin, while Lamb makes an impact in his debut with a punt return TD. Akers leads the LAR backfield with 70 yards, but Malcolm Brown punches in a short touchdown. Jared Goff throws for 280 yards and three TDs, finding Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee and Van Jefferson, but he gets picked off by Chidobe Awuzie trying to drive for the winning score. Cowboys, 30-28

Philadelphia at Washington (+5.5), o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Darius Slay might be the solution to Philly's recurring issues in the secondary, but the Eagles spent a first-round pick plus a couple Day 3 selections on receivers, traded for Marquise Goodwin, and they still head into Week 1 not entirely sure who Carson Wentz will be throwing to other than his tight ends. Alshon Jeffery's recovery from Lisfranc surgery hasn't gone smoothly, while Jalen Reagor missed a lot of time in camp with a shoulder injury, though practiced this week. DeSean Jackson, at least, appears healthy for now, but he hasn't played a full 16-game schedule since 2013. Of course, when it comes to offseason turmoil, no franchise can match the WTF. Whoops, of course I mean the WFT. New coach, no nickname and a running back depth chart that's lost its top two names over the last five weeks. Sure, they could have the league's fiercest pass rush after adding Chase Young, and there's a chance Dwayne Haskins, Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin form a set of triplets that makes Dallas fans jealous, but it's still hard to imagine this team getting its act together as long as Dan Snyder is calling the shots. I mean, seriously — the old nickname had been "controversial" for years and years, but he still didn't have an alternate ready to go if at some point he was forced to ditch it? Long-term thinking clearly isn't his strong suit.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: RB Miles Sanders (questionable, hamstring), WR Jeffery (out, foot), WR Goodwin (opt-out), RG Brandon Brooks (out, Achilles), RT Lane Johnson (questionable, ankle), DE Derek Barnett (questionable, hamstring), DT Javon Hargrave (out, pectoral)

WAS injuries: LB Reuben Foster (IR, knee), LB Thomas Davis (out, calf), CB Kendall Fuller (doubtful, calf)

PHI DFS targets: Wentz (WAS 30th in QB rating against, 31st in TD% allowed in 2019); Reagor / J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2, 31st in DVOA against short passes in 2019); Zach Ertz / Dallas Goedert (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. TE, 31st in DVOA against short throws in 2019) 

WAS DFS targets: none

PHI DFS fades: none

WAS DFS fades: none

Key stat: PHI was fourth in third-down conversions in 2019 at 45.4 percent; WAS was 32nd in third-down defense at 48.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 PHI, average score 27-22 PHI, average margin of victory 11 points. PHI has won six straight meetings by an average score of 31-18

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Sanders plays and gains 90 combined yards and a receiving score, while Boston Scott adds 60 scrimmage yards. Wentz throws for 230 yards and a second touchdown to Ertz. Gibson has an unimpressive pro debut with 50 yards. Haskins throws for 220 yards and two TDs to McLaurin and Dontrelle Inman but gets picked off twice. Eagles, 23-14

Miami (+6.5) at New England, o/u 43.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Dolphins won about five more games than anyone expected last year, and Brian Flores probably should have gotten some real consideration for Coach of the Year given the job he did with a roster torn down to its foundation. The renovation remains a work in progress — Miami still has a retread QB under center for Week 1 and two low-cost veteran additions in the backfield, for instance — but the decision to shell out big bucks for Byron Jones in the offseason suggests the front office sees the finish line in sight, though it's a bit like buying a 55-inch OLED TV before you even have a room to put it in. As for the Pats, let's see, did anything much happen for them over the last six months? Oh right, Tom Brady retired to Florida. After waiting nearly the entire offseason to replace him Bill Belichick finally brought in Cam Newton, a player who in so many ways is the anti-Brady, to be New England's new quarterback. Cam did post a 67.9 percent completion rate during his last mostly healthy season in 2018 — a figure better than anything Brady's ever managed, for what it's worth — but his 7.2 YPA that year would have been Brady worst showing since 2014. Perhaps a better question than how Newton's skills fit into Josh McDaniels' scheme is how big a workload his shoulder can handle. Newton's only topped 500 attempts twice in his career; Brady attempted fewer than 500 only once in his entire tenure as New England's starter. If the Pats passing game needs to be scaled back, it could be very good news for whichever of Sony Michel, Damien Harris or Rex Burkhead eventually emerges as the preferred early down option. Assuming one ever does.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: WR Albert Wilson (opt-out), WR Allen Hurns (opt-out)

NE injuries: RB Harris (IR, finger), WR N'Keal Harry (questionable, shoulder), RT Marcus Cannon (opt-out), S Patrick Chung (opt-out)

MIA DFS targets: none

NE DFS targets: Newton (MIA 32nd in TD% allowed, 30th in YPA allowed in 2019); James White (MIA 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019); Julian Edelman (MIA 31st in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2019); Harry (MIA 28th in DVOA vs. WR2, 26th in DVOA against deep throws in 2019); Patriots DST (first in INT%, first in PPG allowed in 2019)

MIA DFS fades: Ryan Fitzpatrick (NE first in TD% allowed, first in INT%, second in YPA allowed in 2019); DeVante Parker (NE first in DVOA vs. WR1, first against deep throws in 2019)

NE DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIA was 28th in third-down conversions at 34.3 percent in 2019; NE was first in third-down defense at 24.1 percent — the lowest number produced over a full season since 1991 (the first year pro-football-reference.com began recording it) and an incredible performance in a category where the league leader rarely even gets below 30 percent 

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 NE, average score 31-18 NE, average margin of victory 17 points. The teams have split the last three season series, but all three MIA wins have been by a single score, while all three NE wins have been by at least 18 points

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Matt Breida Leads the MIA backfield with 70 combined yards, but Jordan Howard punches in a short TD. Fitzpatrick throws for 200 yards and gets picked off twice, one of which Jason McCourty returns to the end zone. White piles up 100 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown, while Michel adds 60 yards. Newton mostly stays in the pocket, throwing for 240 yards and a second TD to Edelman. Patriots, 30-10

Green Bay (+2.5) at Minnesota, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Does Aaron Rodgers have one last hurrah left in him in Green Bay? There's an out in his contract after 2021, and given what the Packers did in this year's draft, it might be time to start imagining what the future Hall of Famer would look like in, say, teal, black and gold instead of green, gold and white. (Hey, Tom Brady's a Buccaneer, so anything's possible). That still leaves two seasons for Rodgers to try and make hay out of a receiving corps that hasn't shown much aside from Davante Adams, although Matt LaFleur could put even more emphasis on the running game now that AJ Dillon has joined Aaron Jones. The Vikings also figure to lean a little heavier on their ground game after sending Stefon Diggs packing to Buffalo, unless rookie Justin Jefferson makes a very big impact out of the gate. Ground-and-pound is more in character for Mike Zimmer, though, and while the defensive line a little undermanned to begin the year, Yannick Ngakoue should help keep the pass rush afloat until Danielle Hunter gets healthy.

The Skinny

GB injuries: WR Devin Funchess (opt-out), RT Billy Turner (questionable, knee)

MIN injuries: DE Hunter (IR, neck), DT Michael Pierce (opt-out)

GB DFS targets: none

MIN DFS targets: none

GB DFS fades: Marcedes Lewis / Jace Sternberger (MIN first in DVOA vs. TE in 2019)

MIN DFS fades: Bisi Johnson (GB third in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2019)

Key stat: Both teams excelled in the red zone in 2019, so whoever wins that battle should come out on top. GB was eighth in red-zone conversions in 2019 at 64.0 percent, and t-sixth in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent; MIN was 10th in red-zone conversions at 60.7 percent, and second in red-zone defense at 43.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-4-1 MIN, average score 20-19 GB, average margin of victory nine points

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop Jones gains 90 yards. Rodgers throws for 240 yards and TDs to Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Dalvin Cook bangs out 120 combined yards and a score. Kirk Cousins throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Irv Smith. Vikings, 23-20

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (+8), o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

I keep trying to think of a good pun for Philip Rivers' first game as a Colt. Rivers Deep, Taylor Wide, maybe? Indy has the makings of a very good offense with their veteran rental QB, especially if Jonathan Taylor is the real deal, but a lot could go wrong as well — T.Y. Hilton isn't an iron man and the team doesn't have any consistent, established targets behind him on the WR depth chart. Even if Nyheim Hines seamlessly steps into Rivers' peripheral vision as his new Austin Ekeler (or Danny Woodhead, or...), if there's no one to stretch the field, the backfield will be facing a lot of crowded boxes. The Jags aren't as concerned about that, as they decided to go zero-RB. After they couldn't find a taker for Leonard Fournette they kicked him to the curb, and then Ryquell Armstead, last year's backup, got placed on the COVID list. Their running back depth chart  features undrafted free agent James Robinson in the top slot, with brittle Chris Thompson handling passing downs and Bucs castoff Dare Ogunbowale added mainly as Thompson insurance. That's it. Would it be a big surprise if Gardner Minshew ended up leading the team in rushing? Minshew got some upside through the air too, with Tyler Eifert giving him a tight end capable of catching a pass now and then, and second-round pick Laviska Shenault joining DJ Chark as dangerous downfield options. The history of this AFC South rivalry suggests an upset is coming, but it might take one of Jacksonville's less heralded rookies outplaying Taylor to get there.

The Skinny

IND injuries: none

JAC injuries: RB Armstead (out, COVID), RB Devine Ozigbo (IR, hamstring)

IND DFS targets: Hines (JAC 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019); Jack Doyle (JAC 30th in DVOA vs. TE in 2019)

JAC DFS targets: Shenault (IND 29th in DVOA vs. WR3, 28th in DVOA against deep throws in 2019)

IND DFS fades: none

JAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC was 26th in third-down conversions in 2019 at 34.5 percent; IND was 27th in third-down defense at 42.7 percent 

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 JAC, average score 25-18 JAC, average margin of victory 14 points. The home team has won five straight meetings, and IND hasn't won on the road in this rivalry since 2014, losing five straight in Jacksonville by an average score of 31-15

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-80s, 11 mph wind, 20-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Taylor puts up a modest 60 yards in his debut, while Marlon Mack adds 50 and Hines picks up 60 combined yards. Rivers throws for 220 yards and TDs to Doyle and Parris Campbell. Robinson rushes for 70 yards. Minshew throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Chark and Shenault, and runs in a score of his own. Jaguars, 27-23

Chicago (+3) at Detroit, o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Mitchell Trubisky will apparently get one more chance to prove he can be a starting NFL quarterback, but my question is, why? The Bears already declined the fifth-year option on his rookie contract, so what's the best-case scenario here — he plays well, leads them to an early playoff exit, and then prices himself out of their future plans in free agency? He's also still working behind a sub-par offensive line, so that scenario seems highly unlikely even if Trubisky's play does take a big step forward after last year's two steps back. Chicago's got some talent on the defensive side of the ball, but they need the offense to at least give them a chance, otherwise it'll be another long season for Khalil Mack and company. As for the Lions, coach Matt Patricia continues to remake them into a Rust Belt Patriots, right down to the muddled backfield situation. Kerryon Johnson is the incumbent, and his starting job might have been saved for now by D'Andre Swift's injury issues in camp, but you have to think the Lions didn't use the 35th overall pick this year on Swift just to give him limited touches. Of course, that wasn't anywhere near opaque enough, so Detroit also brought in Adrian Peterson last week. With Kenny Golladay banged up, though, the team may have to lean heavily on that backfield if Matthew Stafford's best weapon sits or is just a decoy. Then again, if T.J. Hockenson turns out to be the new Gronk, Patricia can probably get away with emulating his former organization's less desirable traits.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: RB David Montgomery (questionable, groin), WR Cordarrelle Patterson (questionable, knee), RG Germain Ifedi (questionable, triceps), K Eddy Pineiro (IR, groin), DT Eddie Goldman (opt-out), OLB Mack (questionable, knee), OLB Robert Quinn (doubtful, ankle)

DET injuries: WR Golladay (doubtful, hamstring), WR Danny Amendola (questionable, hamstring), RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai (out, foot), CB Jeff Okudah (questionable, hamstring)

CHI DFS targets: Tarik Cohen (DET 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019); Anthony Miller (DET 29th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2019)

DET DFS targets: none

CHI DFS fades: none

DET DFS fades: Amendola (CHI third in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2019)

Key stat: CHI was 25th in third-down conversions in 2019 at 35.6 percent; DET was 28th in third-down defense at 43.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 22-21 CHI, average margin of victory six points. CHI has won four straight meetings, and nine of the last 11 games have been decided by a single score

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop Montgomery bangs out 80 yards, while Cohen adds 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD. Trubisky throws for 210 yards and a second touchdown to Allen Robinson. Johnson leads the DET backfield with 50 yards. Stafford throws for 270 yards and scores to Marvin Jones and Hockenson, but a Roquan Smith fumble return to the house proves to be the difference. Bears, 21-17

Las Vegas at Carolina (+3), o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The more things change, the more they stay the same, part two. The Raiders may be heading to their third city, and Al Davis may be long gone, but this is still the same dysfunctional franchise it's been for decades. How does Mike Mayock still have a job after using a third-round pick on Lynn Bowden, only to give up on him before he even takes a snap in the NFL and sending him to Miami for a Day Three pick upgrade in next year's draft? This after taking Henry Ruggs over Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb with your first pick, following in the proud Raiders tradition of evaluating wide receivers purely on their 40 times. (Somewhere, Darrius Heyward-Bey is nodding.) That is some Matt Millen-level GMing there, Mayock. Anyway, they'll begin the Vegas chapter of their history on the road against a Panthers squad that's rebuilding on defense, but still has some big-time weapons on offense to keep things interesting. If Teddy Bridgewater learned the right lessons during his apprenticeship under Drew Brees, Carolina may not be the doormats some people expect them to be.

The Skinny

LV injuries: WR Tyrell Williams (IR, shoulder)

CAR injuries: LG Dennis Daley (out, ankle), CB Eli Apple (IR, ankle)

LV DFS targets: none

CAR DFS targets: Bridgewater (LV 30th in TD% allowed, 31st in YPA allowed in 2019); Christian McCaffrey (LV 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019); Robby Anderson (LV 31st in DVOA vs. WR2, 30th in DVOA against deep throws in 2019)

LV DFS fades: Hunter Renfrow (CAR fourth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2019)

CAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR was t-13th in red-zone conversions in 2019 at 58.0 percent, LV, then OAK, was 30th in red-zone defense at 67.3 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Josh Jacobs rumbles for 100 combined yards and a score. Derek Carr throws for 240 yards and TDs to Darren Waller and Bryan Edwards. McCaffrey does his thing, piling up 140 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Bridgewater throws for 260 yards and scores to D.J. Moore (who tops 100 yards) and Anderson. Panthers, 27-24

New York Jets (+6.5) at Buffalo, o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Can Sam Darnold make the leap this year? The Jets helped him out by acquiring basically an all-new offensive line in the offseason, but heading into his third season he still lacks much in the way of established big-play weapons. Le'Veon Bell doesn't look like the same guy he was in Pittsburgh, Breshad Perriman was probably on his way out of the league before salvaging his career at the end of some bombs from Jameis Winston, and Chris Herndon can't seem to stay healthy enough to show whether he's capable of being a No. 1 TE. Darnold needs at least one of those guys to perform at a high level if he's going to build on a strong second half from 2019. He has a tough task in Week 1 though, facing a Bills squad that might now be the class of the AFC East over the Brady-less Pats. Buffalo's defense remains stout, and quarterback Josh Allen has a new No. 1 target in Stefon Diggs. It's the backfield that should be the engine of the offense though, with Zack Moss joining Devin Singletary. It's not yet clear how the work will be split between them, but both could make an impact against a Jets defense that has a very soft underbelly if the RBs can crash through to the second level.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: WR Denzel Mims (out, hamstring), LG Alex Lewis (questionable, shoulder), LB C.J. Mosley (opt-out), LB Avery Williamson (out, hamstring), S Marcus Maye (questionable, calf)

BUF injuries: DT Vernon Butler (questionable, hamstring), CB Josh Norman (out, hamstring)

NYJ DFS targets: none

BUF DFS targets: John Brown (NYJ 27th in DVOA against deep throws in 2019)

NYJ DFS fades: Darnold (BUF second in TD% allowed, third in YPA allowed in 2019), Perriman (BUF second in DVOA vs. WR1, second in DVOA against deep throws in 2019); Jamison Crowder (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2019)

BUF DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYJ were 31st in third-down conversion in 2019 at 30.7 percent; BUF was seventh in third-down defense at 35.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 21-21, average margin of victory 10 points. The road team has won four straight meetings

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-60s, 10-12 mph wind, 35-65 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Bell manages 60 yards. Darnold throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Herndon but gets picked off twice. Singletary gains 90 combined yards and a score, while Moss adds 60 yards. Allen throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Brown. Bills, 17-10

Cleveland (+8) at Baltimore, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Shoot, I should have saved that renovation bit I used on the Dolphins for the Browns getting rid of Freddie Kitchens. Oh well. New head coach Kevin Stefanski and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt have plenty of talent to work with, but the key will be whether they can revive Baker Mayfield after last year's regression. Mayfield's on his third coach in three seasons, but Stefanski helped turn Kirk Cousins into one of the most accurate passers in the league in Minnesota and Van Pelt was a QB coach for four years with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, so they have the pedigree to stop Mayfield's slide. Taking on the Ravens in Baltimore isn't exactly the way to build some confidence, though. The secondary does have an Earl Thomas-shaped hole, but he wasn't exactly a difference-maker in his first season with the club last year, so it may not be that difficult to fill. Greg Roman's rushing attack remains the best in the league, and adding J.K. Dobbins to the mix only makes it more dangerous. Lamar Jackson has also now demonstrated he's a threat with his arm too, and with a trio of young targets in Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews and Miles Boykin joined by third-round pick Devin Duvernay, this — not Kansas City, not New Orleans — could could be the most unstoppable offense in the league.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), S Grant Delpit (IR, Achilles), CB Greedy Williams (out, shoulder), CB Kevin Johnson (out. abdomen)

BAL injuries: none

CLE DFS targets: none

BAL DFS targets: none

CLE DFS fades: Mayfield (BAL second in QB rating against, third in TD% allowed in 2019)

BAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: BAL was second in red-zone conversions in 2019 at 67.2 percent; CLE was 25th in red-zone defense at 61.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 BAL, average score 26-20 BAL, average margin of victory 10 points. Five of the last seven meetings have been decided by 14 or more points, with BAL going 4-1 in those games

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Nick Chubb picks up 80 yards and a TD, while Kareem Hunt adds 50 scrimmage yards. Mayfield throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Jarvis Landry. Mark Ingram grinds out 70 yards and a score. Jackson also runs in a touchdown while throwing for 270 yards and TDs to Brown and Boykin. Ravens, 34-23

Seattle at Atlanta (+2), o/u 49.0– Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The more things change, yadda yadda yadda. The Seahawks spent the offseason seemingly trying to recapture their glory days, adding Jamal Adams to a secondary that had distinctly lacked boom in recent years and picking up Carlos Hyde to try to keep the running game afloat if Chris Carson breaks down again. Of course, without better offensive line play, there's only so much the RBs or Russell Wilson can do, but in Wilson's case that's been plenty. The Falcons mostly kept things status quo, swapping Austin Hooper for Hayden Hurst and replacing Devonta Freeman with a fading Todd Gurley, but scoring points has never been the team's problem during the Matt Ryan era. If the key pieces on defense can stay healthy for once — Keanu Neal and Deion Jones have missed a combined 38 games over the last two seasons, and new pass rusher Dante Fowler has had his own injury issues — Atlanta could be a dark horse in the NFC South.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RB Rashaad Penny (out, knee), RG Chance Warmack (opt-out)

ATL injuries: none

SEA DFS targets: DK Metcalf (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2019) 

ATL DFS targets: none

SEA DFS fades: none

ATL DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA was ninth in red-zone conversions in 2019 at 63.3 percent; ATL was 19th in red-zone defense at 58.5 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop Carson runs for 110 yards and a touchdown. Wilson throws for 300 yards and three TDs, hitting Metcalf (who goes over 100 yards) twice and David Moore once. Gurley has an unimpressive Falcons debut with 70 yards, and Brian Hill vultures a score. Ryan throws for 270 yards and TDs to Julio Jones and Hurst. Seahawks, 31-21 

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati (+3), o/u 43.0
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Bolts fans don't have Philip Rivers to kick around any more, but it looks as though the start of Justin Herbert's reign under center could be delayed a while, as Anthony Lynn lets Tyrod Taylor handle starting duties until he thinks the sixth overall pick is ready for prime time. Taylor's an interesting stop gap — he put up decent numbers with the Bills a few years ago, and his scrambling adds a dimension to the offense that Rivers never offered. With Austin Ekeler now the headliner in the backfield, it wouldn't be surprising if the Chargers attempted to become a west coast Ravens, a move which might bode as well for Ekeler's backups as anybody. The Bengals aren't waiting to unveil their own rookie QB. Joe Burrow is very clearly the new face of the franchise for Cincinnati, and he joins an offense that already has a bell cow RB in Joe Mixon and a couple of strong targets in Tyler Boyd and, when he's healthy, A.J. Green. How good a job the offensive line does of keeping Burrow upright will ultimately determine whether they can win a few of the shootouts the team's patchwork defense seems destined to push them into.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: WR Mike Williams (questionable, shoulder), C Mike Pouncey (out, hip), RG Trai Turner (questionable, knee), RT Bryan Bulaga (questionable, hamstring), S Derwin James (IR, knee)

CIN injuries: DT Geno Atkins (out, shoulder), CB Trae Waynes (IR, pectoral), S Shawn Williams (out, calf)

LAC DFS targets: Taylor (CIN 32nd in YPA allowed, 32nd in rushing yards allowed to QB in 2019); Ekeler (CIN 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019); Keenan Allen (CIN 30th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2019)

CIN DFS targets: none

LAC DFS fades: none

CIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAC were t-22nd in red-zone conversions in 2019 at 52.8 percent; CIN was fifth in red-zone defense at 49.0 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Ekeler picks up 100 combined yards and a TD. Taylor throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Allen but runs for 40 yards and a score of his own. Mixon gains 90 yards and a touchdown. Burrow has a solid debut, throwing for 260 yards and a TD to Boyd and putting together a game-winning field goal drive. Bengals, 23-21

Arizona (+7) at San Francisco, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Year Two of the Kliff Kingsbury Experience begins in San Francisco, where the Cards blew a 16-0 lead last year, eventually losing 36-26 as Jimmy Garoppolo torched them for 424 yards and four TDs. Naturally, Arizona responded by beefing up its offense, somehow convincing Houston's Bill O'Brien that redundant running back David Johnson was a fair return for DeAndre Hopkins. Adding Hopkins should bring the Cards' passing attack to a new level, and combined with Kyler Murray's developing skill set and the emergence of Kenyan Drake in the backfield, Kingsbury's game plan might be to win the rematch 46-36. Of course, the Niners will have something to say about that. Even without DeForest Buckner, the Nick Bosa-led front seven is among the league's best, and there's plenty of talent in the secondary too. How Kyle Shanahan plans to sort out his backfield is still a bit of a mystery, but his track record says no matter who gets the touches, they'll probably be productive.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: none

SF injuries: WR Deebo Samuel (out, foot), WR Brandon Aiyuk (questionable, hamstring), C Weston Richburg (out, knee)

ARI DFS targets: none

SF DFS targets: Garoppolo (ARI 29th in TD% allowed, 28th in YPA allowed in 2019); George Kittle (ARI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE in 2019)

ARI DFS fades: Kyler Murray (SF first in YPA allowed, third in sack rate in 2019)

SF DFS fades: none

Key stat: SF was fifth in third-down conversions in 2019 at 45.0 percent; ARI was 30th in third-down defense at 46.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 ARI, average score 26-18 ARI, average margin of victory 10 points. SF has won two straight meetings after losing eight straight.

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Drake dashes for 80 yards. Murray throws for 220 yards and TDs to Kirk and Hopkins. Raheem Mostert leads the SF backfield with 70 yards and a score, while Jerick McKinnon also finds the end zone in his first game action since 2017. Garoppolo throws for 240 yards and two TDs to Kittle, who tops 100 yards. 49ers 31-20

Tampa Bay (+3.5) at New Orleans, o/u 49.0 
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

It's rare in the NFL to get a chance to decisively answer the question of whether a coach or a star player was the biggest factor in a team's sustained success, but that's the experiment the football gods have decided to run in 2020. Of course, just because Tom Brady is now in Tampa Bay and Cam Newton is in New England, that doesn't mean it's quite that simple, as the player Brady has become is at least partially a product of Bill Belichick's coaching. Even if he leads the Bucs to the Super Bowl, the riddle isn't entirely solved. (Of course, if the Bucs are playing in February and the Pats finish below .500 or something — or vice versa — that might be considered a little more conclusive.) Brady certainly has a lot more offensive firepower to work with than he'd had in quite a while up north. In addition to luring Rob Gronkowski away from becoming the next Steve McMichael, the Bucs still have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and just to make Brady feel a little more at home, they're created an overstuffed backfield by adding LeSean McCoy and Leonard Fournette to Ronald Jones and rookie Ke'Shawn Vaughn. The pieces are definitely in place for a contender, as Tampa Bay's defense also features a front seven stuffed with big names and young talent. All that said, the Saints aren't going to be easy to dethrone in the NFC South. Drew Brees has just as many big-play options at his disposal and a lot more experience in his scheme, and the New Orleans defense is also capable of some big performances. If there's a secret weapon in this game, it might be that Jameis Winston — and his knowledge of Bruce Arians' playbook — is now Brees' backup.

The Skinny

TB injuries: WR Evans (doubtful, hamstring)

NO injuries: RG Cesar Ruiz (out, ankle), DE Marcus Davenport (out, elbow)

TB DFS targets: none

NO DFS targets: none

TB DFS fades: none

NO DFS fades: Alvin Kamara (TB was second in YPC allowed, second in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019); Tre'Quan Smith (TB sixth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2019)

Key stat: TB was t-12th in third-down conversions in 2019 at 41.5 percent, but NE under Brady was 17th at 38.3 percent; NO was sixth in third-down defense at 34.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 NO, average score 27-23 NO, average margin of victory 10 points. NO has won three straight meetings. Only one of the last 10 games was decided by fewer than seven points, with three of the last six featuring a margin of at least 14 points. NO won all three of those games

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop McCoy surprisingly leads the TB backfield with 70 combined yards. Brady throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Scotty Miller and Godwin. Kamara picks up 60 scrimmage yards. Brees has a big day, throwing for 310 yards and three TDs to Michael Thomas, Jared Cook and Emmanuel Sanders, with Thomas hauling in 100 yards. Saints, 30-17 

Houston (+9) at Kansas City, o/u 54.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Kansas City Champs begin their title defense in the first game of the season, something that really ought to be a tradition for the NFL. They head into the 2020 campaign with most of their most important pieces healthy and in the lineup, though the absence of right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif could be felt. Coach Andy Reid also has a new toy to play with in first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and the rookie has the skill set to follow in the footsteps of other RBs who put up superstar fantasy numbers in Reid's scheme, such as Brian Westbrook and Jamaal Charles, or rookie-year Kareem Hunt. As for the Texans, in the offseason coach Bill O'Brien thought it was a good idea to trade DeAndre Hopkins while he was still at the tail end of his prime (OK, makes sense, cash out while his value is high) but only got back David Johnson, a running back who's prime might already be long gone — he hasn't posted a YPC over 4.0 since 2016. That's, uhh, sure, whatever there, Bill. You could have just re-signed Carlos Hyde if that's what you're looking for in a feature back. At least the team used the savings to pay Deshaun Watson (stares in the direction of Jerry Jones). Houston has replaced Hopkins with something of a quantity over quality approach at wide receiver, though none of its top four wideouts are scrubs. J.J. Watt and Will Fuller are also healthy for the moment, but on paper this looks suspiciously like a club whose window for contention is closing rapidly.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: WR Brandin Cooks (questionable, quadriceps), CB Gareon Conley (IR, ankle)

KC injuries: RB Damien Williams (opt-out), G Duvernay-Tardif (opt-out), CB Bashaud Breeland (out, suspension)

HOU DFS targets: Johnson (KC 28th in YPC allowed, 26th in rushing yards per game allowed, 29th in rushing DVOA in 2019)

KC DFS targets: Patrick Mahomes (HOU 29th in passing yards per game allowed, 28th in passing TDs allowed in 2019), Edwards-Helaire (HOU 27th in YPC allowed, 25th in rushing yards per game allowed, 22nd in rushing DVOA, 27th in passing DVOA vs. RBs in 2019)

HOU DFS fades: Watson (KC sixth in YPA allowed, eighth in passing yards per game allowed, t-8th in passing TDs allowed in 2019), Fuller (KC third in DVOA vs. WR1, third in DVOA against deep throws in 2019)

KC DFS fades: Tyreek Hill (HOU fourth in DVOA against deep throws in 2019)

Key stat: KC was first in third-down offense in 2019, converting 47.6 percent of its attempts; HOU was 31st in third-down defense at 48.5 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Johnson has an unimpressive Texans debut, gaining 70 scrimmage yards, while Duke Johnson adds 50 yards and a receiving TD. Watson throws for 250 yards and a second score to Randall Cobb. Edwards-Helaire makes a splash with 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Mahomes throws for 280 yards and three TDs, hitting Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce and Hill once each. Kansas City, 34-20 

2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 793-482-5, 593-637-50 ATS, 493-511-20 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)