NFL Game Previews: Raiders-Chiefs Matchup

Las Vegas (+7) at Kansas City, o/u 51 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The Raiders finally got off the schneid last week, despite their best efforts to let the Broncos back in the game. It took a career-best game from Josh Jacobs to do it, but somebody had to step up, since Derek Carr has been scuffling out of the gate. His 6.7 YPA is down a full yard from last year and would be his worst performance in that category since he was a rookie, and his 6:4 TD:INT puts him on pace for a career-worst interception total. So far, the addition of Davante Adams hasn't grown the Vegas offense; he's just grabbed the biggest piece of the existing pie.

In case you were thinking the Kansas City offense hasn't quite gotten into gear yet, only one team in the league has rung up two 40-point games through the first four weeks. Guess who? Patrick Mahomes has his usual absurd 11:2 TD:INT, hitting six different guys for those scores. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is also looking like a guy drafted in the first round, getting into the end zone five times through four games, and the one game when he didn't he stopped 100 scrimmage yards. The big surprise has been the stingy run defense – if Kansas City can keep forcing other teams to try and match Mahomes throw for throw, they're going to be tough to beat (aside from when they beat themselves, coughWeek3cough). This week may be a divisional clash, but next week's showdown with the Bills seems like an early AFC Championship Game preview.

The Skinny

LV injuries: LB Jayon Brown (out, hamstring), CB Anthony Averett (IR, thumb)
KC injuries: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (questionable, quadriceps), RG Trey Smith (questionable, pectoral), RT Lucas Niang (out, knee), K Harrison Butker (out, ankle)

LV DFS targets: Adams $8,500 DK / $8,100 FD (KC 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
KC DFS targets: Edwards-Helaire $6,300 DK / $7,400 FD (LV 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Mecole Hardman $3,700 DK / $5,400 FD (LV 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

LV DFS fades: Jacobs $5,700 DK / $7,200 FD (KC fifth in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed), Raiders DST $2,200 DK / $3,200 FD (31st in sacks, t-29th in takeaways, KC t-2nd in sacks allowed)
KC DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC fourth in red-zone conversions at 73.7 percent; LV 29th in red-zone defense at 76.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 KC, average score 36-20 KC, average margin of victory 18 points. KC has scored at least 28 points in eight straight games in this rivalry

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Jacobs gets held to 50 combined yards, but he does catch a TD pass. Carr throws for 280 yards and two more scores, finding Adams (who tops 100 yards) and Darren Waller. CEH erupts for 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, while Isiah Pacheco also runs in a score. Mahomes throws for 330 yards and three TDs, hitting Hardman ,Travis Kelce and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Kansas City 38-24

N.Y. Giants (+8) vs. Green Bay at London, o/u 41
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EDT

It speaks to which teams kept drawing the short straw for these London trips that this is the first time ever two teams above .500 will be meeting in the UK. The Giants don't even feel like they should qualify — they have no receiving corps, and depending on how things go with Daniel Jones' ankle and Tyrod Taylor's concussion, they could be using third-string QB Davis Webb for this one. I'm going to assume Jones plays, but if his mobility is hampered, it won't help the offense. (One could argue his legs are the only part of him that helps the offense.) All four of New York's games this season have been decided by a single score, but the last two (a loss to Dallas and a win over Chicago) never really seemed in doubt. Saquon Barkley's been amazing, but giving him 33 touches a week seems less than ideal given his history. Then again, what other option does Brian Daboll have?

The Packers have won three straight, but by the skin of their teeth. Squeaking by Tom Brady and the Bucs is one thing, but needing overtime to take down a struggling Patriots team using some guy at QB with the Fighting Baseball-sounding name of Bailey Zappe is just unseemly. Aaron Rodgers is doing what he can, and Romeo Doubs looks like a keeper, but the passing game has been mediocre overall while the running game keeps taking weeks off. I'd say the defense was keeping them afloat, but I'm not even sure that's true — Green Bay's secondary was supposed to be a strength, but it's last in completion percentage allowed and in the middle of the pack in YPA, which is a dangerous combination. Not that Jones or Webb or Bobson Dugnutt or whoever ends up being under center for the Giants is likely to exploit that.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: QB Taylor (out, concussion), WR Wan'Dale Robinson (out, knee), WR Kadarius Toney (out, hamstring), WR Kenny Golladay (out, knee), WR Sterling Shepard (IR, knee), DE Azeez Ojulari (out, calf), DE Leonard Williams (questionable, knee)
GB injuries: WR Sammy Watkins (IR, hamstring), S Adrian Amos (questionable, concussion)

NYG DFS targets: James $4,300 DK / $5,700 FD (GB 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
GB DFS targets: Aaron Jones $7,600 DK / $7,600 FD and AJ Dillon $5,800 DK / $6,700 FD (NYG 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 27th in YPC allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Doubs $4,900 DK / $5,700 FD (NYG 27th in DVOA vs. WR1)

NYG DFS fades: none
GB DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYG 27th in third-down conversions at 32.1 percent; GB first in third-down defense at 23.8 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, 10-11 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Barkley jets for 120 scrimmage yards and two scores. DJones throws for 250 yards. AJones leads the GB backfield with 100 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving, while Dillon adds 80 yards and a touchdown. Rodgers throws for 260 yards and a second TD to Doubs. Packers 28-23

Pittsburgh (+14) at Buffalo, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Apparently, my concern last week about the Steelers not wanting to throw their kid quarterback to the wolves given their upcoming schedule were unfounded. Kenny Pickett replaced Mitch Trubisky at halftime against the Jets and, remarkably, saw all 13 of his pass attempts get caught. (A few of them may have been caught by the other team, mind you, but none landed on the carpet). He also ran in two short scores, and while he wasn't a scrambler at Pitt he did have 20 career rushing TDs through 52 games, so he's no stranger to sneaking it in from the goal line. (Those with Najee Harris shares, beware.) Pickett's 9.2 yards per attempt is what really stands out — that's more than three and a half yards better than Trubisky mustered this season, and while it's obviously a small sample, the rookie seems better equipped to get some production out of Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth than the veteran. That's not to suggest the Steelers are going to suddenly have an elite passing game or anything, but the team ranks 31st in QB rating, so there's really nowhere to go but up under Pickett.

It still seems unfair to have the kid start for the first time against the Bills, though. It's one thing to think "Well, he won't be able to keep up with Josh Allen anyway, so pressure's off," but the Buffalo defense is just as nasty and has yet to allow a team to gain 300 total yards against them in a game — impressive when league average heading into Week 5 was 344.6. Allen is coming off a weirdly quiet day against the Ravens, that may have been due to weather more than anything else, but he still produced two TDs, which is a pretty decent floor. His receiving group is thinned out, but Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are still in the lineup and rookie Khalil Shakir might get his first chance to show what he can do, and it's not like Pittsburgh's secondary is in much better shape.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: EDGE T.J. Watt (IR, pectoral), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (out, hamstring), CB Cameron Sutton (questionable, hamstring), S Terrell Edmunds (questionable, concussion)
BUF injuries: WR Isaiah McKenzie (questionable, concussion), WR Jamison Crowder (out, ankle), WR Jake Kumerow (out, ankle), TE Dawson Knox (out, foot), LB Tremaine Edmunds (questionable, hamstring), CB Tre'Davious White (out, knee), S Jordan Poyer (out, ribs) S Micah Hyde (IR, neck)

PIT DFS targets: none
BUF DFS targets: Bills DST $4,100 DK / $5,000 FD (fifth in sacks, t-3rd in takeaways)

PIT DFS fades: Pickett $5,100 DK / $6,500 FD (BUF first in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed), Harris $6,500 DK / $6,600 FD (BUF third in rushing yards per game allowed, fourth in YPC allowed), Claypool $4,400 DK / $5,600 FD (BUF first in DVOA vs. WR3), Freiermuth $4,100 DK / $5,800 FD (BUF first in DVOA vs. TE)
BUF DFS fades: McKenzie $5,000 DK / $6,100 FD and Shakir $3,200 DK / $5,000 FD (PIT third in DVOA vs. WR3), Quintin Morris $2,600 DK / $4,200 FD (PIT third in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: BUF first in third-down conversions at 55.8 percent; PIT 26th in third-down defense at 45.3 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, 11-17 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Harris picks up 60 yards. Pickett throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Johnson but gets picked off twice more. Devin Singletary leads the BUF backfield with 80 yards and a score. Allen throws for 280 yards and two TDs, finding Diggs and Davis while running in a score himself. Bills 28-10

L.A. Chargers at Cleveland (+2.5), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Bolts took care of business last week against the Texans, but they can never make it easy on themselves — Houston closed to within three points in the fourth quarter before a late Austin Ekeler TD put things to bed. Justin Herbert and the offense have been fine, even with Keenan Allen sidelined for three games (and counting?), but the defense has struggled. L.A.'s coughed up at least 24 points in three straight, and there's no one specific problem area — the team's second-last in YPC allowed and third-last in passing TD percentage allowed, to pick two categories not exactly at random. The Chargers having to outscore their problems isn't a new story, but it's one that leaves them extra vulnerable to bad bounces and kicking-game woes and makes you wonder what they're doing being road favorites against a team that isn't a doormat.

It could be because they're facing a Browns team that's found ways to lose against the Jets and Falcons, and nearly found a way to lose to the Panthers in their opener. All three of those teams scored 17 points in the fourth quarter against Cleveland, and while Atlanta's offense at least has been reasonably productive this year (eighth at 25.8 PPG), the other two barely average that much a game. I actually had the Browns pegged as a great early season defense because of that schedule, and why not? They were getting to face Marcus Mariota, Mitch Trubisky, Baker Mayfield and whoever the Jets had under center. Well, that soft first month is done, and they're in the bottom half of the league in points per game allowed and yards per play allowed. Now they get Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow the next month instead. Ulp. The two-headed backfield has been fine, and Jacoby Brissett's held his own, but the defense needs to find a way to stiffen late or the team will need Deshaun Watson to work some miracles when he finally makes his debut just to reach the playoffs.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: WR Allen (out, hamstring), WR Joshua Palmer (questionable, ankle), LT Rashawn Slater (IR, biceps), K Dustin Hopkins (questionable, quadriceps), EDGE Joey Bosa (IR, groin)
CLE injuries: QB Watson (out, suspension), DE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, ankle), LB Anthony Walker (IR, quadriceps)

LAC DFS targets: Ekeler $7,800 DK / $9,000 FD (CLE 30th in rushing DVOA, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed), Palmer $5,100 DK / $5,500 FD (CLE 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)
CLE DFS targets: Nick Chubb $8,000 DK / $9,400 FD and Kareem Hunt $6,000 DK / $5,900 FD (LAC 31st in YPC allowed, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB), David Bell $3,300 DK / $4,800 FD (LAC 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)

LAC DFS fades: none
CLE DFS fades: Donovan Peoples-Jones $4,100 DK / $5,400 FD (LAC first in DVOA vs. WR2), Browns DST $2,700 DK / $4,000 FD (t-28th in takeaways, LAC first in sacks allowed, t-5th in giveaways)

Key stat: both teams are t-15th in red-zone conversions at 56.2 percent; LAC is 15th in red-zone defense at 53.3 percent, CLE is 21st at 64.3 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, 9-15 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ekeler gains 90 combined yards and a score. Herbert throws for 290 yards and three touchdowns, finding Mike Williams, Palmer and Donald Parham. Hunt leads the CLE backfield with 120 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving, while Chubb adds 70 yards. Brissett throws for 220 yards and and a second touchdown to Amari Cooper, but the defense yet again can't stop Herbert from manufacturing a game-winning drive late. Chargers 31-30

Houston (+7) at Jacksonville, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The league's last winless team gets its last game before an early Week 6 bye, but it's not like the Texans need to regroup after falling well short of expectations or anything. There are small signs of progress, though — Dameon Pierce has increased his rushing yardage in every game and scored in the last two, but the coaching staff still doesn't fully trust him in key late-game situations. (Or maybe it doesn't t trust him not to screw up the team's shot at locking up the first overall pick next year? Hard to tell, really.) Davis Mills is starting to air it out a bit more, with mixed results as he's topped a 7.0 YPA in each of the last two games (a modest bar to clear, granted) but also been picked off twice in each. That's a semi-encouraging development for Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins, though the latter's target volume remains depressingly small from a fantasy perspective. It's worth noting Houston has dominated this rivalry in recent years, and this is a division where that seems to matter more than usual for whatever reason, but I still don't like their chances.

The Jaguars are only 2-2, but that's good enough for a share of the AFC South lead, and they're also the only team in the division that isn't underwater in point differential. In fact, their plus-38 dwarfs the next-best squad, which is the Texans at minus-20. Trevor Lawrence struggled badly last week against the Eagles, completing fewer than 50 percent of his passes and losing four fumbles while getting sacked four times, but Philly figures to make a lot of QBs look bad this year. Travis Etienne also outgained James Robinson on the ground for the first time, albeit by only three yards, and while that probably doesn't signal a changing of the guard in the Jags' backfield or anything, I remain convinced Etienne is going to be No. 1 before the end of the year. Robinson's good, don't get me wrong, but Etienne's the guy who looks like he could break a long gain every time he gets his hands on the ball. The defense has been uneven, allowing Carson Wentz to hang 28 points on it in Week 1 but holding a somewhat banged-up Justin Herbert to 10, but the unit's somewhat quietly sitting in the top 5 in PPG allowed and takeaways, and it reminds me a little of the transformation the Cowboys' defense underwent last year. They may not have a Micah Parsons (who does?) or a Trevon Diggs, but they do have Travon Walker, the other Josh Allen and Devin Lloyd, which is a pretty nice trio around which to build.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: WR Chris Moore (out, hip), TE Brevin Jordan (out, ankle), C Justin Britt (out, personal), DE Jonathan Greenard (questionable, ankle)
JAC injuries: WR Zay Jones (questionable, ankle)

HOU DFS targets: none
JAC DFS targets: Robinson $6,300 DK / $8,000 FD and Etienne $5,100 DK / $5,600 FD (HOU 29th in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed), Jamal Agnew $3,600 DK / $5,300 FD (HOU 26th in DVOA vs. WR3)

HOU DFS fades: Phillip Dorsett $3,000 DK / $4,600 FD (JAC fifth in DVOA vs. WR3)
JAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: HOU 31st in third-down conversions at 26.9 percent; JAC 15th in third-down defense at 37.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 HOU, average score 22-18 HOU, average margin of victory 16 points. HOU has won eight straight meetings by an average score of 25-13, and only two of the last 10 have been decided by less than 13 points

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, 10-13 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Pierce gains 80 yards and a score. Mills throws for 240 yards and gets picked off twice again. Robinson leads the JAC backfield with 110 yards and a touchdown, while Etienne adds 80 yards and his first career trip to the end zone. Lawrence throws for 270 yards and two scores, hitting Christian Kirk and Marvin Jones. Jaguars 31-16

Chicago (+7) at Minnesota, o/u 44 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

I still don't entirely understand how the Bears are 2-2 considering they've scored 20 or more points only once and allowed 20 or more three times, but such is the maths. Their running game should be fine even if David Montgomery is in the shop for another week, but the passing game ... look, I know it's October and the spooky season, but some eldritch horrors simply should not be spoken of aloud. Justin Fields completed double-digit passes last week for the first time this season. How is that even possible in 2022? The second-year QB is on pace for more than 600 rushing yards, which is nice, I suppose, but hardly enough to make up for his deficiencies elsewhere. It doesn't even seem all that special in a league with Lamar, Josh and Jalen. The defense has the same issues in reverse. Chicago's secondary has been stingy, but the run defense has been gashed by everyone from Saquon Barkley to Deebo Samuel to rookie Dameon Pierce. Maybe it's a small mercy that the Bears allow the other team to keep the ball and not let Fields cosplay as Bernie Masterson or whatever it is he's doing out there.

The Vikings are tied with the Packers atop the NFC North, even down to point differential (both are plus-6). Their last two wins haven't exactly been impressive, though, especially last week's when they needed a double doink missed field goal to beat an Andy Dalton-led team in London. New coach Kevin O'Connell was supposed to unlock the offense, but Kirk Cousins has actually taken a step back, and his 63.1 percent completion rate and 6.6 YPA would be by far career lows since he became a full-time starter back in 2015. Justin Jefferson remains in the conversation for WR1, but no one else in the passing game has stood out, and the running game hasn't been all that special either — blame Dalvin Cook's latest shoulder injury for him only reaching 100 scrimmage yards in four games if you want, but he and Alexander Mattison have also only combined for three TDs. Maybe O'Connell's impact, and the Ramsification of this offense, were wildly overestimated in the preseason — O'Connell was also Cousins' QB coach his final year in Washington, and that was the worst of his three seasons as the proto-Commanders' starter.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: RB Montgomery (questionable, ankle), LG Cody Whitehair (IR, knee), CB Jaylon Johnson (doubtful, quadriceps)
MIN injuries: S Lewis Cine (IR, leg)

CHI DFS targets: none
MIN DFS targets: Cook $7,300 DK / $7,300 FD and Mattison $6,400 DK / $7,300 FD (CHI 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPC allowed)

CHI DFS fades: none
MIN DFS fades: Cousins $6,300 DK / $7,100 FD (CHI fourth in passing yards per game allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed), Jefferson $8,900 DK / $8,800 FD (CHI first in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: CHI 26th in third-down conversions at 34.0 percent; MIN t-11th in third-down defense at 35.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 19-19 (19.2-18.5 MIN, technically), average margin of victory eight points. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by a single score, but the two highest-scoring games in the rivalry during the last five years have both come in US Bank Stadium (33-27 CHI in 2020 and 31-17 MIN last year).

The Scoop: Montgomery plays but Khalil Herbert still leads the CHI backfield with 80 yards. Fields throws for less than 200 yards but does run in a score. Cook gains 100 scrimmage yards, while Mattison adds 50. Cousins throws for 230 yards and a TD to K.J. Osborn. Vikings 16-10

Detroit (+3) at New England, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Lions sit at the bottom of the NFC North at 1-3, but how can you not love a team that leads the league in both scoring and points allowed? They have yet to play a game this season with a total lower than 52 (eyes over/under line suspiciously), and it hasn't seemed to matter how healthy Detroit's own roster is, or who they're facing — the points are coming. Jared Goff's had two games already with four TD passes, and last week it was Jamaal Williams' and T.J. Hockenson's turn in the spotlight. Not that the Lions had much choice, as Amon-Ra St. Brown, D'Andre Swift and others were all on the shelf. St. Brown might be back for this one, and if he is, it will be interested to see what the unit can get away with against Bill Belichick.

The Patriots also sit at the bottom of their division at 1-3, but things are looking a bit bleaker in Foxborough. Yeah, they almost upset the Packers at Lambeau, but they also almost lost to Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers in Week 2. The backfield's been humming the last two weeks, but that's maybe only happened because of the total disarray under center. Mac Jones was out for the Green Bay game due to an ankle injury, and Brian Hoyer lasted only 15 snaps before being sidelined with a concussion. Enter Bailey Zappe, a fourth-round rookie out of Western Kentucky who looked reasonably competent while forcing OT against Aaron Rodgers. It's a similar scenario to how Davis Mills wound up starting for the Texans last year, but Mills was perceived to be the better prospect due to his size and arm strength. NFL scouting is an inexact science, though, particularly when it comes to QBs. Zappe's janky throwing mechanics and stocky 6-1 frame docked him on scouts' report cards, but on film he seems accurate enough and can hit some tight windows against coverage — at least, he could against far inferior college defenders. If New England's offensive line can give him clean pockets, he might not put up Geno Smith numbers, but he could surprise.

The Skinny

DET injuries: RB Swift (out, shoulder), WR St. Brown (questionable, ankle), WR DJ Chark (out, ankle), WR Josh Reynolds (questionable, ankle), WR Quintez Cephus (out, foot), WR Jameson Williams (out, knee), LG Jonah Jackson (questionable, finger), RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (IR, back), RG Tommy Kraemer (IR, back), DE Charles Harris (out, groin), DE Romeo Okwara (out, Achilles), S Tracy Walker (IR, Achilles)
NE injuries: QB Jones (doubtful, ankle), QB Hoyer (IR, concussion), WR Jakobi Meyers (questionable, knee), WR Tyquan Thornton (IR-R, collarbone), RT Isaiah Wynn (questionable, hip), CB Jalen Mills (questionable, hamstring), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, knee)

DET DFS targets: Williams $6,500 DK / $8,300 FD (NE 31st in rushing DVOA, 26th in rushing yards per game allowed, 29th in YPC allowed)
NE DFS targets: Zappe $5,100 DK / $6,300 FD (DET 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 26th in YPA allowed), Damien Harris $5,600 DK / $7,200 FD and Rhamondre Stevenson $5,500 DK / $6,000 FD (DET 32nd in rushing DVOA, 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed)

DET DFS fades: St. Brown $7,600 DK / $8,200 FD (NE third in DVOA vs. WR)
NE DFS fades: none

Key stat: DET second in red-zone conversions at 88.2 percent; NE t-22nd in red-zone defense at 69.2 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, 7-11 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Williams grinds out 90 yards and a touchdown. Goff throws for 270 yards and two scores, hitting Josh Reynolds and Hockenson. Stevenson leads the NE backfield with 100 combined yards, while Harris adds 60 yards and a TD. Zappe throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to DeVante Parker. Lions 27-20

Seattle (+5.5) at New Orleans, o/u 46 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Just so I've got this straight — Geno Smith led the Seahawks to more points in Week 4 (48) than Russell Wilson has produced for the Broncos in his last three games (43) combined, including Thursday's abomination? Have I got that right? Smith's career resurgence is one of the best stories in the NFL this season, considering the long, strange route he's taken to get here. He leads the league in completion percentage by a mile and is in the top 5 in yards per attempt and air yards per attempt, with the latter being the more surprising. Basically, he's not just dinking and dunking — he has 11 completions of 20 or more yards already, which is as many as Joe Burrow and Tom Brady have. Forcing defenses to respect his arm allowed Rashaad Penny to break out last week (well, that and facing the Lions), and Seattle still has enough talent to put together a dangerous offense despite Pete Carroll's best efforts. Now if only the team had something like the Legion of Boom again too ... the Seahawks' secondary is in the conversation as the worst in the league, last in yards per attempt allowed in addition to other poor rankings.

That Pacino "game of inches" speech from Any Given Sunday was running through my head as Wil Lutz's kick pinballed around the uprights in London without falling on the other side. It wasn't just that Chris Olave couldn't quite get two feet down on the sidelines the play before, which would have made Lutz's kick a relative gimme instead of a 61-yard prayer that almost got answered ... what if the holder had simply set up a little more to Lutz's right? The Saints are 1-3 and at the bottom of the NFC South, but with a healthy QB under center the team looked more like the one everyone expected, even if that QB was Andy Dalton and he didn't have Alvin Kamara or Michael Thomas available. Olave's emergence has made the injuries more palatable; he has an 18-294-1 line over the last three games on 33 targets, and he leads all rookies in catches and receiving yards. The defense has been bending a lot but not breaking, sitting in the top 10 in yards per play allowed but tied for 20th in points per game allowed, but that should be good enough once the offense is closer to full strength.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RB Kenneth Walker (questionable, shoulder), WR Marquise Goodwin (questionable, knee), S Jamal Adams (IR, knee)
NO injuries: QB Jameis Winston (doubtful, back), RB Kamara (questionable, ribs), WR Thomas (out, foot), WR Jarvis Landry (questionable, ankle), LT Trevor Penning (IR, toe), LG Andrus Peat (questionable, concussion), S Marcus Maye (ribs)

SEA DFS targets: Dee Eskridge $3,200 DK / $4,700 FD (NO 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)
NO DFS targets: Dalton $5,200 DK / $6,500 FD (SEA 32nd in passing DVOA, t-28th in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed), Kamara $6,600 DK / $7,000 FD and Mark Ingram $5,400 DK / $6,000 FD (SEA 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 28th in YPC allowed, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed), Olave $5,700 DK / $6,900 FD (SEA 28th in DVOA vs. WR1), Landry $4,300 DK / $5,500 FD (SEA 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Adam Trautman $2,700 DK / $4,500 FD (SEA 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

SEA DFS fades: Will Dissly $3,300 DK / $5,100 FD and Noah Fant $2,800 DK / $4,800 FD (NO second in DVOA vs. TE)
NO DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA 30th in red-zone conversions at 41.7 percent; NO third in red-zone defense at 36.4 percent

The Scoop: Penny totes up 90 yards and a TD. Smith throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, finding Tyler Lockett (who tops 100 yards) and Eskridge. Kamara plays and gains 60 yards, while Ingram also picks up 60 yards but adds a TD and Taysom Hill also gets into the end zone. Dalton throws for 280 yards and two scores, hitting Trautman and Olave. Saints 31-27

Miami at N.Y.  Jets (+3.5), o/u 46 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

What the Tua Tagovailoa situation made clear to me, if nothing else, is that the whole "concussion protocol" thing is just a smokescreen to cover teams' asses, not a genuine attempt to watch out for the health of the players. Everybody has seen guys wobble on their feet like that after a big hit – there have even been other examples this year. How many times has it ever been due to back trouble as opposed to head trauma? Mike McDaniel and the entire Miami organization need to take a long look in the mirror, because they shouldn't have even needed an independent doctor to tell them not to send him back out against the Bills. The fact that Tua got crunched again last week can be chalked up to rotten timing, sure, but if the team took his health more seriously, would he even have been on the field? Why did they make Teddy Bridgewater one of the highest paid backups in the league if not for exactly those kinds of situations? Whatever, they're 3-1 and hold a tiebreaker over a more talented Bills team with only 13 games left on the schedule to play. I'm sure it was worth it. With Bridgewater under center and both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle dealing with minor lower-bpdy injuries, it might be a good time for McDaniel to recall his Niners apprenticeship and lean a little more heaving on that Raheem Mostert/Chase Edmonds duo in the backfield.

The Jets' win over the Steelers last week wasn't as big an upset as the one over the Browns in Week 2, but they did cost Mitch Trubisky his job, so that's a nice thing to add to the old resume. Having now completed their tour of the AFC North at a surprising 2-2, they get their first divisional game. Zach Wilson didn't exactly look good in his first action of the year, and Garrett Wilson in particular seemed to miss Joe Flacco, it doesn't seem like Robert Saleh really wants this to be a team that goads people into shootouts anyway. Breece Hall has seen more snaps and touches than Michael Carter each of the last two weeks, and while there's been no change on the official depth chart, Hall seems like he could seize the starting job for good any day now. Dameon Pierce has a solid early lead in the race for the rookie rushing crown, but I wouldn't bet against Hall blowing past him some time around Week 12.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: QB Tagovailoa (out, concussion), WR Hill (questionable, quadriceps), WR Waddle (questionable, groin), LT Terron Armstead (questionable, toe), RT Austin Jackson (IR, ankle), CB Xavien Howard (questionable, groin), CB Byron Jones (out, ankle)
NYJ injuries: RT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee), RT George Fant (IR, knee), RT Max Mitchell (out, knee), LB Quincy Williams (out. ankle)

MIA DFS targets: Cedrick Wilson $3,100 DK / $4,800 FD and Trent Sherfield $3,300 DK / $5,000 FD (NYJ 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)
NYJ DFS targets: ZWilson $5,300 DK / $7,200 FD (MIA 31st in passing DVOA, 31st in passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed), Tyler Conklin $3,700 DK / $5,300 FD (MIA 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

MIA DFS fades: none
NYJ DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIA 10th in third-down conversions at 41.9 percent; NYJ 31st in third-down defense at 51.0 percent 

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 MIA, average score 22-15 MIA, average margin of victory 10 points. MIA has won four straight meetings by an average score of 25-11

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 40s, 7-11 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Mostert erupts for 120 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Edmonds adds 70 combined yards and a score. Bridgewater throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Tyreek. Hall leads the NYJ backfield with 100 scrimmage yards and a score, while Carter adds 50 yards. ZWilson throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Conklin but gets picked off twice, the second one which squashes a potential game-winning drive. Dolphins 21-20

Atlanta (+8.5) at Tampa Bay, o/u 48 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Among the somewhat inexplicable two-win teams heading into Week 5, the Falcons might make the most sense. Every game they've played so far has been close, with none of them being decided by more than four points, so it stands to reason a couple of those coin flips would go their way. What was less comprehensible was the disappearance of Kyle Pitts from the offense, but he's out this week with a hamstring issue anyway, leaving more targets for Drake London and... nope, that's it, just London. The rookie's coming off his worst performance yet against the Browns, and while this isn't the easiest matchup, a rebound is probably coming. The bigger loss is Cordarrelle Patterson, and while Tyler Allgeier did reach 100 scrimmage yards last week in his place, the 2022 fifth-round pick is no Patterson. Atlanta's defense has been sketchy too, and if the offense takes a step back without two of its most talented players on the field, this one could get out of hand quickly.

The Bucs have lost two straight, but they were games against Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, not Marcus Mariota. Tampa's roster is slowly getting pieces back, and while the offensive line especially remains patchwork, Tom Brady had his first breakout game last week, and it almost certainly won't be his last this year, and the exact same thing can be said about Mike Evans. Chris Godwin hadn't made any splashes yet, but that might have to wait for a while, and that could leave some opportunities for revenge games by former Falcons wideouts Julio Jones and/or Russell Gage, if they're healthy enough. Leonard Fournette's disappearing act against Kansas City on the ground was a head-scratcher, but he at least managed to score his first TD of the year, even if it came through the air. This seems like a good get-right spot for the veteran back.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: RB Patterson (IR, knee), RB Damien Williams (IR, ribs), WR Calvin Ridley (out, suspension), TE Pitts (out, hamstring), LB Deion Jones (IR, shoulder), CB Isaiah Oliver (IR-R, knee) 
TB injuries: WR Jones (questionable, knee), WR Gage (questionable, knee), EWR Breshad Perriman (questionable, knee), TE Cameron Brate (out, concussion), LG Aaron Stinnie (IR, knee), C Ryan Jensen (IR, knee), DE Akiem Hicks (out, foot)

ATL DFS targets: none
TB DFS targets: Buccaneers DST $3,900 DK / $4,800 FD (fourth in sacks, t-3rd in takeaways, ATL 27th in giveaways)

ATL DFS fades: Mariota $5,400 DK / $6,800 FD (TB third in passing DVOA, sixth in YPA allowed), KhaDarel Hodge $3,200 DK / $5,000 FD (TB second in DVOA vs. WR3)
TB DFS fades: none

Key stat: TB t-6th in red-zone conversions at 66.7 percent; ATL 19th in red-zone defense at 62.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 31-27 TB, average margin of victory 10 points. TB has won five of the last six meetings, including the last four by an average score of 38-24

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-80s, 11 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Allgeier manages 60 yards. Mariota throws for 210 yards and a TD to Anthony Firkser but gets picked off twice. Fournette rumbles for 120 yards and two touchdowns. Brady throws for 300 yards and two scores, hitting Evans (who tops 100 yards again) and Cade Otton for his first career NFL TD. Buccaneers 34-13

Tennessee at Washington (+2.5), o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Titans are 0-2 this season when they net under 100 rushing yards and 2-0 when they hit triple digits, which seems about right. Derrick Henry is gaining steam, scoring in three straight and plowing through the Colts for 100-plus yards again – he's done it five times in his last six games against Indy – and while it's the kind of thing that's true for most teams, Tennessee just looks so much more comfortable when they can key everything else off the threat of Henry trucking defenders for huge gains. That includes keeping the defense off the field. The Titans are 26th in points per game allowed, 30th in yards per play allowed and dead last in QB rating against, and the unit seems like it has more guys out of action right now than in the lineup. Amazingly though, they're one of 13 teams with double-digit sacks despite the absence of Harold Landry, and they haven't even had to blitz that much to get there. Second-year player Rashad Weaver and veteran Denico Autry have led the charge, and if Bud Dupree can eventually add something too, this could be an interesting pass rush.

Now, why was I looking up the Titans' pass-rush numbers... oh, right. Carson Wentz comes into Week 5 having been sacked a league-high 17 times, and while to some extent that's a product of attempting more than 40 passes every week, it owes a lot more to poor offensive line play from a unit with a third-string center in the middle and Wentz's own lack of pocket awareness. The pressure has led to two straight weeks of sub-60 percent completion rates and sub-5.0 YPAs, and that potentially promising start to his Washington tenure has collapsed pretty quickly. Brian Robinson should also make his belated NFL debut this week and could shove Antonio Gibson to the bench almost immediately, but I wouldn't really expect anything more than that. He's still working in the same scheme and with the same offensive line Gibson had, after all, and coming out of Alabama, he didn't really seem to have the vision or elusiveness to take full advantage of his power build. Really, the guy he reminds me of is Gus Edwards – a back who can thrive in the right system, but but who may not have much luck otherwise. That said, Robinson's already proven he's got an elite work ethic just by making such a quick recovery from getting shot, so he could easily prove me wrong. Fun fact: each defense has only allowed one rushing TD so far, best in the league, but 10 passing TDs, worst in the league. Basically, Robinson might have his work cut out for him to notch that first score.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: WR Treylon Burks (IR, toe), LT Taylor Lewan (IR, knee), RG Nate Davis (questionable, knee), EDGE Harold Landry (IR, knee), EDGE Dupree (out, hip), LB Zach Cunningham (out, elbow), CB Caleb Farley (questionable, knee), S Amani Hooker (out, concussion)
WAS injuries: WR Jahan Dotson (out, hamstring), TE Logan Thomas (questionable, calf), C Chase Roullier (IR, knee), C Wes Schweitzer (IR, concussion), RT Samuel Cosmi (out, finger), DE Chase Young (out, knee)

TEN DFS targets: Ryan Tannehill $5,800 DK / $6,900 FD (WAS 30th in passing DVOA, 28th in YPA allowed, t-30th in passing TDs allowed), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $4,200 DK / $5,400 FD (WAS 28th in DVOA vs. WR2), Kyle Philips $3,900 DK / $5,200 FD (WAS 27th in DVOA vs. WR3)
WAS DFS targets: Wentz $5,700 DK / $6,800 FD (TEN t-28th in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed, t-30th in passing TDs allowed), Curtis Samuel $5,800 DK / $5,800 FD (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Thomas $3,200 DK / $5,200 FD (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

TEN DFS fades: none
WAS DFS fades: J.D. McKissic $5,200 DK / $5,100 FD (TEN third in passing DVOA vs. RB)

Key stat: TEN first in red-zone conversions at 90.0 percent (!); WAS t-10th in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Henry thunders for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Tannehill throws for 240 yards and two TDs, finding Philips and Robert Woods. Robinson leads the WAS backfield with 70 yards and a score. Wentz throws for 290 yards and three TDs, hitting Samuel (who tops 100 yards), Terry McLaurin and Armani Rogers, but he also takes a safety that proves to be the difference. Titans 33-31

San Francisco at Carolina (+6.5), o/u 39 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

While every team in the NFC West is deadlocked at 2-2, the 49ers have a legit argument for being the best of the bunch. Not only are they 2-0 within the division, having beaten the Rams last week and the Seahawks in Week 2, they're also the only team in the division holding their own in point differential with a plus-25, while everyone else is in negative numbers. Jimmy Garoppolo is looking a little better every game and the running attack has survived so far without Elijah Mitchell, but it's the defense that's been the standout unit. The Niners haven't allowed anyone to reach 20 points against them yet and easily lead the league in points per game allowed, and they're also tops in yards per play allowed. As the kids may have said at some point, that slaps.

The Panthers just put up their worst offensive performance of the year, and it came at home against the Cardinals, which is kind of impressive. Baker Mayfield's been a disaster, but Sam Darnold's not close to returning from IR and Matt Corral is out for the season, so hey, maybe things will click eventually. I'm not sure what the plan is here, other than maybe to stick with Mayfield and Matt Rhule until they've done enough damage to lock up a high pick whoever the next coach is, but now there are Christian McCaffrey trade rumors too. Might as well set DJ Moore free while you're at it. The sad part is, the utter offensive ineptitude has disguised a pretty solid performance by the defense. If they weren't on the field all the time, Carolina's ability to stop the other team would probably be even greater, but they sit dead last in time of possession. Yes, even Justin Fields' Bears have had the ball more than Mayfield's Panthers. Yikes.

The Skinny

SF injuries: QB Trey Lance, (IR, ankle), RB Mitchell (IR, knee), RB Tyrion Davis-Price (out, ankle), LT Trent Williams (out, ankle), DT Javon Kinlaw (out, knee), DT Arik Armstead (out, foot), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (IR, knee), CB Jason Verrett (out, knee), S Jimmie Ward (IR-R, hamstring)
CAR injuries: QB Darnold (IR, ankle), LB Frankie Luvu (questionable, shoulder), S Jeremy Chinn (IR, hamstring), S Xavier Woods (questionable, hamstring)

SF DFS targets: none 
CAR DFS targets: Shi Smith $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD (SF 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

SF DFS fades: none
CAR DFS fades: Mayfield $5,100 DK / $6,400 FD (SF fourth in passing DVOA, second in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed, first in passing TDs allowed), McCaffrey $8,500 DK / $8,700 FD (SF first in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed, fourth in passing DVOA vs. RB), Moore $5,200 DK / $5,900 FD (SF fourth in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: CAR 32nd in third-down conversions at 25.5 percent; SF sixth in third-down defense at 32.7 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Jeff Wilson puts together 80 yards and a TD. Garoppolo throws for 250 yards and a score to George Kittle. CMac gets held to 70 combined yards. Mayfield throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice, and he's replaced by P.J. Walker late in the game. 49ers 20-6

Philadelphia at Arizona (+5), o/u 49 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Say hello to the last unbeaten team in the NFL. The Eagles are so locked in right now, they sportingly spotted the Jaguars a 14-point lead last week before getting going, and they still went into halftime out front. The Jalen Hurts-led offense has been an absolute machine, racking up at least 400 yards of offense in every game so far, and just about every skill player has had a chance to contribute. Kenneth Gainwell, for instance, is stuck in a backup role behind an explosive Miles Sanders, and he's scored twice already on only 19 touches. It's Hurts' show though, and while he's only thrown four TD passes, his efficiency is through the roof and he's also run for four TDs. There isn't much to complain about on the other side of the ball either, as the Eagles are third in plays per play and tied for first in takeaways. The perfect season watch is officially on.

The last time the Cardinals had a winning record at home was 2017, when they went 5-3 en route to a .500 season. State Farm took over naming rights for the stadium the following year, and since then, the best the franchise has managed was one break-even season on home turf. Thanks a lot, Jake – no wonder Kyler Murray hasn't appeared in any of those ads. Last year was particularly egregious, as they went 8-1 on the road but only 3-5 at home, but Kliff Kingsbury's boys seem intent on outdoing themselves in 2022, as they've lost their first two games in Glendale and won their first two road contests. There's a real disconnect in the offense right now, as Murray's 5.7 yards per attempt is not only a career low, it's more than two yards worse than 2021. Adding Marquise Brown was supposed to help stretch the field, and he's doing his part, but either Murray doesn't want to air it out or Kingsbury's addicted to wide receiver screens. The QB's intended air yards per attempts remains a league-worst 5.9, and he's not getting the yards after catch to compensate. This wasn't a problem before – Murray's IAY/PA hovered between 7.4 and 8.0 his first three years in the league – so it should be fixable, assuming it isn't due to Kyler hiding an arm injury or something. Just don't expect it to get fixed in this matchup.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: LT Jordan Mailata (out, shoulder), LT Andre Dillard (IR-R, forearm), K Jake Elliott (out, ankle), DE Derek Barnett (IR, knee), CB Avonte Maddox (out, ankle)
ARI injuries: WR DeAndre Hopkins (out, suspension), WR Rondale Moore (questionable, knee), LT D.J. Humphries (questionable, hamstring), LG Justin Pugh (questionable, elbow), C Rodney Hudson (doubtful, knee), K Matt Prater (out, hip) 

PHI DFS targets: Dallas Goedert $4,700 DK / $6,100 FD (ARI 29th in DVOA vs. TE), Eagles DST $3,500 DK / $4,500 FD (first in sacks, t-1st in takeaways)
ARI DFS targets: none

PHI DFS fades: A.J. Brown $7,500 DK / $8,000 FD (ARI fifth in DVOA vs. WR1)
ARI DFS fades: Murray $7,400 DK / $8,100 FD (PHI second in passing DVOA, second in YPA allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed), Hollywood Brown $7,200 DK / $7,800 FD (PHI second in DVOA vs. WR1), A.J. Green $4,300 DK / $5,100 FD (PHI second in DVOA vs. WR2), Cardinals DST $2,100 DK / $3,400 FD (32nd in sacks, PHI t-1st in giveaways)

Key stat: PHI eighth in third-down conversions at 43.3 percent; ARI 24th in third-down defense at 43.2 percent

The Scoop Sanders scampers for 80 yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Hurts throws for 320 yards and two more scores, both to Goedert, while running in a touchdown as well. James Conner picks up 60 yards. Murray throws for 240 yards and a TD to MBrown. Eagles 38-13

Dallas (+5.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 43 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Eagles may be the only undefeated team, but the Cowboys have the league's only undefeated quarterback. Cooper Rush has a lifetime record of 4-0 after leading his team to three straight wins following a Week 1 loss that saw Dak Prescott hurt and which seemed at least time like a clear omen of a poor season for Dallas. Instead, the defense has risen to an elite level while Rush has avoided turnovers and done just enough, a formula much like the one the 49ers are using right now. Micah Parsons and crew are in the top five in points per game allowed, yards per play allowed, pressure rate, QB rating against, etc., and the takeaways have started to come in as well with Trevon Diggs getting going. CeeDee Lamb and Noah Brown are the only ones on offense who have really clicked with Rush, but the Cowboys just got Michael Gallup back, and Prescott shouldn't be far behind. Despite some very questionable offseason moves, this team could legitimately be one of the best in the NFC once it's at full strength.

The same could be said about the Rams. They haven't looked great and are only 2-2, but the losses have come to the Niners and Bills, so at least they're losing to the right people. Cooper Kupp's on pace for another massive season, but Matthew Stafford's struggled as has the run game behind a banged-up offensive line, and even the defense has been less than the sum of its parts. These are still the defending champs, and the roster still has stars all over the place, but this isn't the first time a Sean McVay team has underperformed for no discernible reason. The cavalry is coming, though – preseason Kupp clone Lance McCutcheon saw his first career snap on offense last week, although he's mostly worked on special teams since being bumped up from the practice squad. Allen Robinson isn't working out, and Odell Beckham isn't walking through that door any time soon. Do the right thing, Sean.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: QB Prescott (out, thumb), RB Tony Pollard (questionable, illness), WR Lamb (questionable, groin), WR James Washington (IR, foot), LT Tyron Smith (IR, knee)
LAR injuries: WR Van Jefferson (IR, knee), C Brian Allen (out, knee), RG Tremayne Anchrum (IR, lower leg), RG Coleman Shelton (IR, ankle), RG Logan Bruss (IR, knee), CB David Long (questionable, groin), S Taylor Rapp (questionable, ribs)

DAL DFS targets: Lamb $7,000 DK / $7,200 FD (LAR 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Brown $4,900 DK / $5,400 FD (LAR 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Cowboys DST $2,500 DK / $4,100 FD (t-2nd in sacks, LAR t-29th in sacks allowed, t-28th in giveaways)
LAR DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: Ezekiel Elliott $5,800 DK / $6,200 FD and Pollard $5,700 DK / $5,700 FD (LAR third in rushing DVOA, second in passing DVOA vs. RB), Gallup $5,000 DK / $6,000 FD (LAR eighth in DVOA vs. WR3)
LAR DFS fades: Stafford $6,400 DK / $7,400 FD (DAL fifth in passing DVOA, sixth in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed), Ben Skowronek $4,000 DK / $5,300 FD (DAL sixth in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: LAR t-26th in red-zone conversions at 46.2 percent; DAL t-5th in red-zone defense at 42.9 percent

The Scoop Zeke leads the DAL backfield with 70 yards. Rush throws for 250 yards and two scores, finding Lamb and Brown. Cam Akers gains 90 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Stafford throws for 230 yards and a second TD to Kupp, but he also throws a pick-six to Diggs. Cowboys 27-14

Cincinnati (+3) at Baltimore, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Bengals appear to be back on track, using the Jets game to shake off their early-season malaise and then dispatching Miami last week. Since coughing up the ball five times in their opener, Cincy's only committed one giveaway in their last three games, while the defense has generated seven. That's a pretty tried and true formula for success. Joe Burrow's got a 6:0 TD:INT over that stretch too, although his overall efficiency still isn't at last year's level, mainly because he still has swiss cheese for an offensive line. Those issues have hurt Joe Mixon too, who's averaging a pitiful 2.7 yards per carry, and having him on pace for over 400 touches also seems unsustainable. There are still some things the Bengals need to figure out, but the AFC North is still there for the taking if they do.

Baltimore is one of the teams they'll have to pull away from, of course, but the Ravens aren't quite finally on all cylinders either. Lamar Jackson got stifled by the Bills, but in his case "stifled" means only one passing TD and 73 rushing yards. J.K. Dobbins is gearing up, but the secondary remains an issue. No one's given up more passing yards, no one's given up more first downs through the air, and their only really redeeming quality through four games is some timely ball-hawking. If the unit could ever get healthy... that's not going to happen any time soon though, with Kyle Fuller out for the year and Marcus Peters banged up again.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: WR Tee Higgins (questionable, ankle), TE Hayden Hurst (questionable, groin)
BAL injuries: RB Justice Hill (out, hamstring), RB Gus Edwards (out, knee), WR Rashod Bateman (out, foot), LT Ronnie Stanley (questionable, ankle), EDGE Justin Houston (out, groin), CB Peters (questionable, quadriceps), CB Fuller (IR, knee)

CIN DFS targets: none
BAL DFS targets: Ravens DST $3,000 DK / (t-1st in takeaways, CIN t-29th in sacks allowed)

CIN DFS fades: Tyler Boyd $5,200 DK / (BAL fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)
BAL DFS fades: Dobbins $5,600 DK / (CIN fourth in rushing yards per game allowed, t-1st in rushing TDs allowed), Tylan Wallace $3,000 DK / (CIN seventh in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: BAL fifth in red-zone conversions at 71.4 percent; CIN t-7th in red-zone defense at 44.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 BAL, average score 27-21 BAL, average margin of victory 18 points. The last three season series have all been sweeps, with an average score of 37-12 in those six contests

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Mixon cobbles together 70 yards. Burrow throws for 340 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Ja'Marr Chase twice and Higgins once, with both topping 100 yards. Dobbins picks up 60 yards. Jackson throws for 260 yards and a TD to Mark Andrews while running in another, and he leads a fourth-quarter drive to set up Justin Tucker for his fourth FG of the night. Ravens 26-24

Indianapolis (+3.5) at Denver, o/u 42 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

It's probably too soon to say the Colts are in trouble — they still play in the AFC South, after all — but they don't look like a team that's going to get close enough to choke away a playoff spot in the final week again. Jonathan Taylor's absence for this one looms large, of course, but it might actually be a blessing in disguise if it forces the Indy passing game to get its act together. Even at age 37 and playing in a new scheme, Matt Ryan should be capable of more than he's shown, though it would help if the offensive line could keep him upright. Coming into 2022, Ryan's career high for fumbles in a season was 12, but he's already put the ball on the carpet nine times through four games this year while getting sacked 15 times. The defense hasn't been all that bad, though, sitting sixth in yards per play allowed and not allowing more than 24 points in a game yet despite having faced Kansas City already. This game will really come down to how well Frank Reich and his staff can adapt to not having JT to lean on, though I suppose a Phillip Lindsay revenge game isn't completely off the table.

Speaking of teams that need more out of their quarterback and just lost their No. 1 running back ... Javonte Williams' season-ending knee injury is brutal, but the Broncos are better able to weather it than some other clubs might be. It puts more pressure on Melvin Gordon to hang onto the dang ball, and the fact Denver ran out and grabbed Latavius Murray off the Saints' practice squad might be a sign in their lack of confidence in Gordon, but the team's fortunes really rest on how quickly Russell Wilson gets going. The breakout seems like it's about due — he tossed multiple TDs last week for the first time as a Bronco with a season high 9.5 yards per attempt, and that near-TD bomb to KJ Hamler certainly looked like vintage Russ. The Colts' secondary ranks 27th in completion rate allowed and 27th in passing DVOA, so Wilson should at least have the opportunity to rack up some numbers here.

The Skinny

IND injuries: RB Taylor (out, ankle), LB Shaquille Leonard (out, concussion), S Julian Blackmon (out, ankle)
DEN injuries: RB Williams (IR, knee), WR Tim Patrick (IR, knee), RG Quinn Meinerz (out, hamstring), RT Billy Turner (questionable, knee), EDGE Randy Gregory (IR, knee), S Justin Simmons (IR, quadriceps)

IND DFS targets: none
DEN DFS targets: Courtland Sutton $9,400 DK / $13,000 FD (IND 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Eric Saubert $1,200 DK / $5,000 FD (IND 28th in DVOA vs. TE), Broncos DST $4,200 DK / $10,000 FD (t-6th in sacks, IND 28th in sacks allowed, t-31st in giveaways)

IND DFS fades: Ryan $9,600 DK / $15,000 FD (DEN fifth in passing yards per game allowed, fourth in YPA allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed), Colts DST $3,400 DK / $9,500 FD (t-29th in sacks, t-31st in takeaways, DEN t-5th in giveaways)
DEN DFS fades: Gordon $8,800 DK / $12,500 FD (IND second in rushing DVOA, second in YPC allowed)

Key stat: IND t-26th in red-zone conversions at 46.2 percent; DEN first in red-zone defense at 33.3 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Nyheim Hines leads the IND backfield with 80 combined yards, while Lindsay adds 50 yards. Ryan throws for 240 yards and two TDs, finding Michael Pittman and (rolls tight end die) Kylen Granson. Gordon picks up 70 yards and a score, and Mike Boone gains 40 yards. Wilson erupts for 310 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Sutton (who tops 100 yards) twice and Saubert once. Broncos 34-20

Last week's record: 7-9, 6-8-2 ATS, 9-7 o/u
2022 regular-season record: 27-36-1, 26-36-2 ATS, 35-28-1 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 174-97-1, 146-125-1 ATS, 125-143-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 1315-805-8, 1031-1028-69 ATS, 770-815-31 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)