NFL Game Previews: Rams-49ers Matchup

L.A. Rams at San Francisco (+4), o/u 49.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Of all last week's upsets, the Titans over the Rams might have been the hardest for me to wrap my head around. I expected some kind of letdown for Tennessee after losing Henry, and it didn't happen. I certainly didn't expect the Rams to treat a division-leading opponent as a minor nuisance they could look past, but that seemed to be exactly what happened. Lesson learned, maybe? At 7-2 they're still in good shape, both in the NFC West and for the playoff in general, and Von Miller and Odell Beckham could both make their Los Angeles debuts this week. The latter arrived in the nick of time, as Robert Woods tore his ACL in Friday's practice, but the injury could also give Van Jefferson a chance to really shine. The 49ers also have something of a timely addition to their lineup, as Elijah Mitchell is still less than 100 percent healthy, but Jeff Wilson might be ready for action after not playing a snap last week, despite being activated off the PUP list. (Somewhat hilariously, Trey Sermon was a healthy scratch, and it's time to start wondering if he'll be able to re-start his career in another uniform next year). The Niners are down with the Seahawks at 3-5 and have lost five of their last six, but the way injuries continue to pile up for this team, they seem a lot less likely to find a way into the playoff picture. Right tackle Mike McGlinchey is the latest guy to be lost for the season, and there isn't a position group on the roster that's been unscathed. The recent history of this rivalry suggests this could be a get-right spot for San Francisco, but the 2021 numbers for both clubs indicate it won't even be that close.

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The Skinny

LAR injuries: WR Woods (out, knee), C Brian Allen (questionable, elbow), OLB Miller (questionable, ankle), CB Darious Williams (questionable, ankle)

SF injuries: RB Mitchell (questionable, ribs), RB JaMycal Hasty (questionable, ankle), TE George Kittle (questionable, calf), RT McGlinchey (IR, quaadriceps), DE Dee Ford (IR, back), LB Dre Greenlaw (IR, groin), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (questionable, ankle), CB Emmanuel Moseley (questionable, neck), CB Josh Norman (questionable, ribs), S Jimmie Ward (questionable, quadriceps), S Jaquiski Tartt (IR, knee) 

LAR DFS targets: Jefferson $4,100 DK / $5,500 FD (SF 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)

SF DFS targets: none

LAR DFS fades: none

SF DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAR are 11th in red-zone conversions at 63.4 percent; SF is 24th in red-zone defense at 67.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 SF, average score 27-24 SF, average margin of victory 12 points. SF has won four straight meetings by an average score of 25-19

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Darrell Henderson gains 90 yards and a TD. Matthew Stafford throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Cooper Kupp (who tops 100 yards) twice and Jefferson once. Mitchell leads the SF backfield with 60 yards, but Wilson vultures a score. Jimmy Garoppolo throws for 230 yards and gets picked off twice. Rams 31-16

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (+13), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

While last week didn't do my 2021 numbers any favors, I do love Chaos Weeks. It reminds us folks who still believe pigs live in trees that Everything You Know Is Wrong. It's a long season, and good teams just coming out flat for no discernible reason and not being able to recover is going to happen two-plus months in. It doesn't even have to be the whole team — the Bills defense did its job against the Jags, holding them to three field goals; it was Josh Allen and the offense that didn't get off the plane. The loss weirdly leaves them with the No. 3 seed in the AFC now, behind the Titans (who beat them) and the Ravens, but there's plenty of time for Buffalo to fix that. They still have a solid argument to be considered the best team in the conference — all three of their losses have been by a single score, while all five of their wins have been by at least 15 points, though only the 38-20 victory over Kansas City counts as coming against a credible opponent. The Jets' two wins have come against Tennessee and Cincinnati, but calling them credible is a stretch. Franchise QB Mike White will make his triumphant return to the lineup, buying Zach Wilson more time to heal up, but it's tough to imagine this offense being anything other than some kind of blowout. The Jets have managed to score 30-plus in consecutive games, but that's a number only one opponent (the Titans, with Derrick Henry) has reached all year against the Bills. Meanwhile, the Jets' defense hasn't kept anyone below 30 since Week 5.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: RB Zack Moss (questionable, concussion), LG Jon Feliciano (IR, calf), LB Tremaine Edmunds (out, hamstring)

NYJ injuries: QB Wilson (doubtful, knee), WR Corey Davis (questionable, hip), LT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee), LG Alijah Vera-Tucker (questionable, toe), RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (questionable, coach's decision)

BUF DFS targets: Devin Singletary $4,700 DK / $6,000 FD (NYJ 31st in rushing DVOA, 27th in rushing yards per game allowed, t-31st in rushing TDs allowed), Bills DEF $4,000 DK / $5,000 FD (second in takeaways, first in points per game allowed, NYJ t-29th in giveaways)

NYJ DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: none

NYJ DFS fades: White $5,100 DK / $6,700 FD (BUF first in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, first in TD% allowed), Elijah Moore $4,700 DK / $5,700 FD (BUF second in DVOA vs. WR2), Jets DEF $2,000 DK / $3,000 FD (t-30th in takeaways, 32nd in points per game allowed, BUF t-2nd in sacks allowed)

Key stat: NYJ are 16th in red-zone conversions at 58.3 percent; BUF is first in red-zone defense at 40.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 22-21 BUF, average margin of victory 11 points. BUF has won the last three meetings in New York

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Singletary racks up 90 yards and a score. Allen throws for 270 yards and TDs to Dawson Knox and Emmanuel Sanders. Michael Carter manages 60 yards. White throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Corey Davis but gets picked off twice. Bills 24-10

Tampa Bay at Washington (+9.5), o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Bucs got a week to think about losing to Trevor Siemian, but luckily for them Siemian then lost to the Falcons and Tampa Bay remains on top in the NFC South. The bye week didn't get them any healthier, though. Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski remain out, while the Bucs' secondary is still a patchwork affair. Tom Brady isn't short of receiving options, though, and Washington hasn't really been able to stop anyone's passing game all year. OK, to be fair, Teddy Bridgewater didn't do a whole lot against it, but he didn't have to with Taylor Heinicke throwing two picks and nearly losing two fumbles. Heinicke remains under center coming out of Washington's own Week 9 bye, but only because Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't healthy yet. It's pretty clear at this point Heinicke isn't a long-term answer at the position, but with the team holding a top-5 pick in the 2022 draft and not seemingly likely to go on a winning streak any time soon, he's at least setting himself up for a backup job somewhere next year. The media will feast on his performance against Tampa Bay in last year's playoffs, but in NFL terms, that was a long time (and a lot of game film to analyze) ago.

The Skinny

TB injuries: WR Chris Godwin (questionable, foot), WR Brown (out, ankle), TE Gronkowski (out, back), OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (questionable, shoulder), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (IR, elbow), CB Carlton Davis (IR, quadriceps)

WAS injuries: QB Fitzpatrick (IR, hip), WR Curtis Samuel (out, groin), TE Logan Thomas (IR, hamstring), RT Samuel Cosmi (questionable, ankle), DE Montez Sweat (out, jaw)

TB DFS targets: Brady $7,600 DK / $8,300 FD (WAS 31st in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 30th in TD% allowed), Godwin $7,100 DK / $7,800 FD (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

WAS DFS targets: none

TB DFS fades: none

WAS DFS fades: Antonio Gibson $5,500 DK / $6,200 FD (TB second in rushing yards per game allowed, t-2nd in rushing TDs allowed), Washington DEF $2,100 DK / $3,400 FD (TB t-2nd in sacks allowed, first in points per game)

Key stat: TB is second in third-down conversions at 49.0 percent; WAS is 32nd in third-down defense at 56.5 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Leonard Fournette picks up 80 combined yards and a touchdown, while Giovani Bernard adds 50 yards and a receiving TD. Brady throws for 300 yards and two more scores, finding Mike Evans and Godwin. Gibson ekes out 50 yards. Heinicke throws for 260 yards and a TD to J.D. McKissic but gets picked off twice. Buccaneers 31-13

Atlanta (+9.5) at Dallas, o/u 54.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Don't look now, but the Falcons have won three of four and climbed back up to .500, putting them only two games back of the Bucs for the top of the NFC South. Narrow wins over the Jets and Dolphins don't mean much, but they did squeak one out against the Saints last week. Matt Ryan looked more like his old self, and with Calvin Ridley's status a little more definite for a while, the veteran QB seemed more comfortable making use of his existing options rather than pining for guys who weren't on the field. That mainly means Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson — the latter is in his ninth NFL season and on his fifth team, yet somehow he's already set a career high in scrimmage yards (737) and tied his career high in TDs from scrimmage (seven). Dude was a first-round pick in 2013. How have so many other coaching staffs failed to take advantage of his skills until now? Having your top receiving options be players who line up at tight end and running back does help neutralize the impact someone like Trevon Diggs can have, but the key is going to be whether the Falcons defense can slow down Dak Prescott and company. The Broncos did it last week, but that seemed more a result of poor execution by the Dallas offense than anything Denver was doing. Atlanta's defense hasn't been tested lately, but when it was earlier in the year it flopped badly, coughing up 48 points to the Bucs and more than 30 to the Eagles and, somehow, Washington. That would seem to put Prescott on track for a huge rebound performance, and he might even get Michael Gallup back at 100 percent health too.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: WR Ridley (out, personal)

DAL injuries: WR Gallup (IR, calf), WR Cedrick Wilson (questionable, shoulder), LT Tyron Smith (out, ankle), K Greg Zuerlein (out, COVID-19), DE Demarcus Lawrence (IR, foot)

ATL DFS targets: Kyle Pitts $5,800 DK / $6,900 FD (DAL 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

DAL DFS targets: Amari Cooper $6,200 DK / $7,300 FD (ATL 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

ATL DFS fades: Russell Gage $5,000 DK / $6,000 FD (DAL first in DVOA vs. WR1), Falcons DEF $2,400 DK / $3,200 FD (32nd in sacks, DAL third in points per game)

DAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: DAL is fourth in third-down conversions at 46.1 percent; ATL is 31st in third-down defense at 47.9 percent

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Patterson leads the ATL backfield with 90 combined yards, while Mike Davis adds 50. Ryan throws for 280 yards and two scores, hitting Pitts (who tops 100 yards) and Olamide Zaccheaus. Ezekiel Elliott bangs out 80 yards and a touchdown, while Tony Pollard adds 50. Prescott throws for 310 yards and four TDs, hitting Cooper twice and CeeDee Lamb (who tops 100 yards) and Gallup once each. Cowboys 38-23

New Orleans (+3) at Tennessee, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Well, maybe the Saints won't be able to get by with Trevor Siemian under center after all. One week after beating the Bucs, he lost to the Falcons, and the latter might be a bigger negative than the former is a positive on his ledger. Worse, Alvin Kamara is now banged up too — it's one thing to ask Siemian to keep tread water while leaning on his running game, but now that's not really an option unless Mark Ingram turns back the clock ... to his Alabama days. New Orleans' defense remains among the top units in the league, but it's going to be all on them for a while to keep the team in the playoff picture. The Titans are also missing their elite RB, but they didn't bat an eye last week and dismantled the Rams anyway, and Tennessee now holds the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They've won five consecutive games, with the last four coming against playoff-caliber opposition (the Bills, Colts and Kansas City fell before Los Angeles did), but Henry's only missed one game so far. It's an opportunistic defense that's produced eight takeaways in the last three games keeping them going, and if that unit has really come together, the Titans still have the pieces on offense to be dangerous. If those turnovers evaporate and if they go back to being the defense that surrendered 454 yards to the Jaguars in Week 5, well, it's not like the AFC isn't used to churn at the top this season.

The Skinny

NO injuries: QB Jameis Winston (IR, knee), RB Kamara (out, knee), LT Terron Armstead (out, knee)

TEN injuries: RB Henry (IR, foot), WR Julio Jones (questionable, hamstring), LB David Long (out, hamstring), LB Rashaan Evans (questionable, ankle), CB Kristian Fulton (IR, hamstring)

NO DFS targets: Saints DEF $3,100 DK / $4,700 FD (fifth in points per game allowed, TEN 30th in sacks allowed)

TEN DFS targets: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $3,200 DK / $5,300 FD (NO 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

NO DFS fades: Adam Trautman $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (TEN fifth in DVOA vs. TE)

TEN DFS fades: Adrian Peterson $4,900 DK / $5,900 FD and Jeremy McNichols $5,500 DK / $6,400 FD (NO first in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed), Geoff Swaim $2,500 DK / $4,500 FD (NO fourth in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: NO is 23rd in third-down conversions at 36.8 percent; TEN is 12th in third-down defense at 38.8 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, 11-12 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ingram grinds out 60 yards. Siemian throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Deonte Harris. Adrian Peterson runs for only 40 yards, while D'Onta Foreman leads the backfield with 60 yards and a score. Ryan Tannehill throws for 250 yards and a TD to A.J. Brown. Titans 17-16

Jacksonville (+10.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

It's a microcosm of Urban Meyer's entire life that his team fails to score a touchdown against one of the best defenses in the league and still somehow comes away with a win. The Jaguars are now two wins up on the Lions for the top pick in the 2022 draft, but they already have Trevor Lawrence in place so it's not like they need to pick No. 1. Lawrence has hardly taken the league by storm as a rookie, and even seems to be regressing under Meyer's, uhh, tutelage — he hasn't topped a 4.5 YPA or 60 percent completion rate in either of his last two starts, and somehow wound up with only 238 yards and one TD two weeks ago against Seattle despite tossing it 54 times — but Jacksonville's going to be stuck with Lawrence a couple more years yet at least, so they better hope the next coach can unlock him. The Colts' offense, on the other hand, is on fire. It's scored at least 30 points in four consecutive games, topping out at 45 last week against the Jets, and won three of the four to climb back to 4-5. Carson Wentz's awful picks two weeks ago against the Titans still loom large, especially if that loss ends up costing them a division title, but he's thrown multiple TDs in six straight games and posted a solid 64.9 percent completion rate, 7.8 YPA and 14:2 TD:INT over that stretch. With Jonathan Taylor now looking like the best healthy back in the NFL and Michael Pittman emerging as a legit No. 1 receiver, they might have enough firepower to survive the team's semi-regular defensive collapses.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: RB James Robinson (questionable, heel), C Brandon Linder (IR, knee)

IND injuries: WR Parris Campbell (IR, foot), K Rodrigo Blankenship (IR, hip), DT DeForest Buckner (questionable, back), CB Xavier Rhodes (out, calf), S Khari Willis (IR, calf)

JAC DFS targets: none

IND DFS targets: Wentz $5,900 DK / $7,500 FD (JAC 32nd in passing DVOA, 31st in YPA allowed), T.Y. Hilton $4,700 DK / $6,000 FD (JAC 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Colts DEF $3,600 DK / $4,800 FD (first in takeaways, JAC 31st in points per game)

JAC DFS fades: Robinson $6,200 DK / $7,500 FD and Carlos Hyde $5,000 DK / $5,700 FD (IND second in rushing DVOA, first in rushing TDs allowed)

IND DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC is 32nd in third-down conversions at 29.8 percent; IND is t-21st in third-down defense at 41.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 JAC, average score 23-19 JAC, average margin of victory 12 points. The home team has won seven straight meetings

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Robinson plays and leads the JAC backfield with 60 yards. Lawrence throws for 280 yards and a TD to Marvin Jones. Taylor piles up 120 combined yards and a score. Wentz throws for 270 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Pittman twice and T.Y. Hilton once. Colts 28-13

Detroit (+9) at Pittsburgh, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Remember when there was this weird optimism around the Lions because they were biting kneecaps or whatever it was Dan Campbell wanted them to do? Yeah, well, I remember this other guy who threatened to bite legs too, and look where it got him. They're the NFL's last winless team, and given how badly they got dismembered by the Eagles before their bye, Detroit doesn't seem too close to changing that. There's just too many problems on this roster to fix in one week. Jared Goff has no one to throw to and hasn't had a 300-yard game or led the team to more than 19 points since Week 1, posting a 5:5 TD:INT in the seven games since. The defense also gave up 106 total points in the three games prior to the bye. That's not a great combination. The Steelers are heading in exactly the opposite direction. They're won four straight and are nipping at the Ravens' heels atop the AFC North, but their margin for error remains razor thin. None of their five victories have been by more than a single score, and over their winning streak only Najee Harris and the running game have been consistent — for instance, the defense gave up 29 points and 414 yards to the Bears last week, after holding the Browns to 15 points and 306 yards the week before. At some point Pittsburgh's going to start losing close ones, but this doesn't seem like the week that'll happen.

The Skinny

DET injuries: RB Jamaal Williams (out, thigh), LT Taylor Decker (questionable, finger), K Austin Seibert (out, hip), CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (IR, thigh)

PIT injuries: WR Chase Claypool (out, toe), DE Stephon Tuitt (IR, undisclosed)

DET DFS targets: none

PIT DFS targets: Ben Roethlisberger $5,600 DK / $7,100 FD (DET 29th in passing DVOA, 32nd in YPA allowed, 31st in TD% allowed), Harris $7,900 DK / $9,400 FD (DET 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Diontae Johnson $6,800 DK / $7,400 FD (DET 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)

DET DFS fades: none

PIT DFS fades: none

Key stat: DET is 30th in red-zone conversions at 50.0 percent; PIT is fourth in red-zone defense at 48.0 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 30s, less than 10 mph wind, 10-35 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop: D'Andre Swift gains 70 combined yards and a TD. Goff throws for 220 yards and a score to T.J. Hockenson. Harris bashes out 130 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Roethlisberger throws for 270 yards and TDs to Johnson and Pat Freiermuth. Steelers 31-17

Cleveland (+1.5) at New England, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

For the second time this season, the Browns erupted for more than 40 points, but unlike in Week 5 they actually won last week's contest. Baker Mayfield and the passing game seemed a lot more comfortable without Odell Beckham around, but the backfield is back to being a patchwork affair with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt both out at the same time again. D'Ernest Johnson thrived in that scenario in Week 7, and a banged-up Pats linebacking corps might struggle to slow any RB. New England's won four of its last five, though, and the fifth was that wacky overtime loss to the Cowboys. Mac Jones did his best impression of a Hall of Famer named Kurt last week — I'm talking Angle of course, not Warner — and putting a target on his back from the Fraternal Order of Pass Rushers might not have been the best decision right before he faces Myles Garrett, but that incident with Brian Burns could have offered a glimpse at the Pats' identity in the second half of the year as they kick things into high gear. This is a team that seems willing to do whatever it takes to scrape out a win, and out-nastying a Cleveland team dealing with some big absences seems right in its wheelhouse.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: RB Chubb (out, COVID-19), RB Hunt (IR, calf), RB Demetric Felton (out, COVID-19), RT Jack Conklin (IR, elbow)

NE injuries: RB Damien Harris (questionable, concussion), RB Rhamondre Stevenson (questionable, concussion), TE Jonnu Smith (questionable, shoulder), RG Shaq Mason (questionable, abdomen), RT Trent Brown (IR, calf), K Nick Folk (questionable, knee), LB Dont'a Hightower (questionable, knee), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, ribs), LB Kyle Van Noy (questionable, groin), CB Jalen Mills (questionable, thigh)

CLE DFS targets: Johnson $4,700 DK / $5,400 FD (NE 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

NE DFS targets: none

CLE DFS fades: Jarvis Landry $5,200 DK / $6,100 FD (NE third in DVOA vs. WR1), Austin Hooper $2,800 DK / $4,800 FD (NE first in DVOA vs. TE)

NE DFS fades: none

Key stat: CLE is t-23rd in red-zone conversions at 54.8 percent; NE is eighth in red-zone defense at 52.0 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Johnson gains 80 scrimmage yards. Mayfield throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Rashard Higgins. Brandon Bolden leads the NE backfield with 60 combined yards. Jones throws for 260 yards and TDs to Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers. Patriots 23-13

Minnesota (+2.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 53.0
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Vikings gonna Viking, man. The race for the NFC North title is basically over with Minnesota in second place at 3-5, but those five losses have come by a combined 18 points, two coming in overtime, including last week's loss to the Ravens. They've kept it close against good teams, but consistently come up short. Kirk Cousins has fallen off the last couple weeks, failing to reach 200 passing yards or a 7.0 YPA in either one, but Dalvin Cook has reached 100 rushing yards in half of his games this year, and as long as they're both healthy the Vikings offense is capable of going toe to toe with anyone, even if they eventually wind up on the canvas. Of course, a lot of that is true of the Chargers as well, but they sit atop the AFC West at 5-3 because things have broken their way just a little more frequently — they're 4-2 in games decided by a single score, as opposed to the Vikes' 2-5 record. Justin Herbert threw off his recent malaise to top 300 passing yards for the fourth time in 2021 last week with a season-high 9.4 YPA, and he's starting to find ways to keep things rolling even with the right side of his offensive line missing in action. Austin Ekeler isn't as effective on the ground as Cook, but he's caught at least three passes in seven consecutive games and reached 100 scrimmage yards five times in that span, Both teams even have matching dangerous receiving duos and banged-up secondaries. In a battle between erratic, unpredictable teams, I'm going with the most predictable outcome — a wild, close game decided on the final possession.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: C Garrett Bradbury (questionable, COVID-19), OLB Anthony Barr (out, knee), CB Patrick Peterson (IR, hamstring), CB Bashaud Breeland (questionable, groin), S Harrison Smith (out, COVID-19)

LAC injuries: WR Keenan Allen (questionable, knee), RT Bryan Bulaga (IR, back), OLB Joey Bosa (questionable, ankle), LB Kenneth Murray (IR, ankle), LB Drue Tranquill (out, COVID-19), CB Michael Davis (doubtful, hamstring), S Nasir Adderley (questionable, ankle)

MIN DFS targets: Cook $8,000 DK / $8,500 FD (LAC 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed)

LAC DFS targets: Ekeler $7,600 DK / $8,600 FD (MIN 26th in rushing DVOA, 30th in YPC allowed)

MIN DFS fades: Adam Thielen $6,700 DK / $7,000 FD (LAC fourth in DVOA vs. WR2)

LAC DFS fades: Chargers DEF $2,900 DK / $3,300 FD (MIN first in sacks allowed, second in giveaways)

Key stat: LAC are 14th in red-zone conversions at 61.8 percent; MIN is 26th in red-zone defense at 68.2 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Cook rumbles for 130 combined yards and a score. Cousins throws for 290 yards and TDs to Justin Jefferson (who tops 100 yards) and Tyler Conklin. Ekeler responds with 120 scrimmage yards two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Herbert throws for 330 yards and two more scores, both to Mike Williams. Chargers 31-30

Carolina (+10.5) at Arizona, o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Both these come into the game with questions at quarterback, though in the Panthers' case it might end up being addition by subtraction. Sam Darnold was in a tailspin, and while P.J. Walker will start, the fact that Carolina repatriated Cam Newton suggests the team is at least thinking about pulling the plug on Darnold even once he gets healthy. Between Christian McCaffrey, a stout defense and a 4-5 record, this season is far from a lost cause, but they can't afford to keep working on a project at QB who has a 2:8 TD:INT and 5.0 YPA in his last five games. On the Cardinals' sideline, Kyler Murray is in danger of missing a second straight game, but he did practice in a limited fashion Friday and Arizona may not want to press its luck on Colt McCoy completing 84.6 percent of his passes again. No matter who's under center, DeAndre Hopkins still isn't practicing and the Cards will probably lean heavily on James Conner, who may have seized the No. 1 job in the backfield for good with his performance last week. This is still the team with the best record in the NFL in large part because the defense has been outstanding — only the Vikings and Packers have scored more than 20 points against them all season, and this Panthers squad doesn't match up.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: QB Darnold (IR, shoulder), LT Cameron Erving (IR, calf), C Matt Paradis (IR, knee), RG John Miller (IR, ankle), DE Brian Burns (questionable, ankle), CB Jaycee Horn (IR, foot)

ARI injuries: QB Murray (questionable, ankle), RB Chase Edmonds (out, ankle), WR Hopkins (questionable, hamstring), WR Rondale Moore (questionable, concussion), LG Justin Pugh (out, calf), DE J.J. Watt (IR, shoulder), S Budda Baker (questionable, concussion)

CAR DFS targets: none

ARI DFS targets: A.J. Green $4,600 DK / $5,600 FD (CAR 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Moore $4,400 DK / $5,400 FD (CAR 31st in DVOA vs. WR3), Cardinals DEF $3,700 DK / $4,800 FD (third in takeaways, third in points per game allowed)

CAR DFS fades: Walker $5,000 DK / $6,200 FD (ARI second in passing DVOA, third in YPA allowed), Robby Anderson $4,400 DK / $5,200 FD (ARI third in DVOA vs. WR2), Ian Thomas $2,500 DK / $4,200 FD and Tommy Tremble $2,500 DK / $4,500 FD (ARI second in DVOA vs. TE)

ARI DFS fades: McCoy $5,000 DK / $6,500 FD (CAR fourth in passing DVOA, second in passing yards per game allowed), Christian Kirk $5,500 DK / $6,700 FD (CAR first in DVOA vs. WR2), Zach Ertz $4,600 DK / $5,200 FD (CAR third in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: ARI is fifth in red-zone conversions at 69.2 percent; CAR is 29th in red-zone defense at 72.7 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: McCaffrey racks up 90 combined yards and a TD. Walker throws for 220 yards and a score to Terrace Marshall but gets picked off twice. Conner gains 80 yards and a touchdown. McCoy starts again and throws for 240 yards and a TD to Green. Cardinals 23-14

Philadelphia (+2.5) at Denver, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Say what you want about Jalen Hurts, but he hasn't been the problem for the Eagles this season. Sure, his passing numbers are weak by modern standards, but his running keeps the chains moving and he has a shot at becoming the third QB in league history with 1,000 rushing yards in a season, after Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson (who's done it twice). As a result, the Eagles are 11th in points per game and 12th in yards per play. Nope, they're below .500 and set to miss the playoffs again because of the defense. When they allow 27 points or more, the Eagles are 0-5, and they're 3-1 when they don't. By contrast, the Broncos are also winless when they allow 27 points or more but they've only done it twice, and they're 5-1 when holding the opposition to 17 or less. In fact, no other defense has stifled the other team that often — six such performances is tied for the league lead with the Cardinals, and Denver's done it to two real offenses (Cleveland and Dallas) in the last three weeks. Vic Fangio gets plenty of grief, but this season is shaping up to be one of the best efforts of his career as a defensive coach once you factor in all the injuries and absences (Bradley Chubb, to pick one name out of the group, has only played 17 snaps this season). If only Fangio had an offensive coordinator who could get the same kind of performance on the other side of the ball. Teddy Bridgewater's been as adequate as ever, Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon have been a solid backfield duo and the receiving corps is talented, but the unit remains less than the sum of its parts.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: RB Miles Sanders (IR, ankle), RG Brandon Brooks (IR, pectoral)

DEN injuries: WR Tim Patrick (questionable, knee), LT Garret Bolles (out, ankle), LG Dalton Risner (questionable, foot), RG Graham Glasgow (IR, ankle), RT Bobby Massie (out,. Ankle), LB Baron Browning (questionable, back), OLB Malik Reed (questionable, hip), OLB Chubb (IR, ankle), CB Patrick Surtain (questionable, knee), CB Bryce Callahan (IR, knee)

PHI DFS targets: none

DEN DFS targets: Noah Fant $4,300 DK / $5,700 FD (PHI 26th in DVOA vs. TE)

PHI DFS fades: none

DEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: DEN is 22nd in third-down conversions at 37.1 percent; PHI is 28th in third-down defense at 44.1 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, 8-10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jordan Howard leads the PHI backfield with 50 yards. Hurts throws for less than 200 yards but runs for 40 yards and a touchdown. Gordon leads the DEN backfield with 80 yards and a score, while Williams adds 60 yards and a TD. Bridgewater throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, finding Fant and Courtland Sutton. Broncos 28-10

Seattle (+3) at Green Bay, o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

It was looking iffy last week, but we might just get an epic clash of all-time quarterbacks in this one after all. Russell Wilson is on track to return from finger surgery after missing three games, plus the Seahawks' bye. Having him back under center will be great news for Tyler Lockett — DK Metcalf has stormed his way into the end zone regardless, but Lockett posted two duds before exploiting the Jags' secondary in Week 8. Russ' return might come just in time to save Seattle's playoff hopes too. Things look bleak at first glance with the team at 3-5, and Arizona leading the NFC West at 8-1, but the 4-4 Falcons actually hold the final wild card in the conference. The Packers basically already have their ticket punched at 7-2 and with a massive lead on the rest of the NFC North, so if Aaron Rodgers doesn't clear the COVID-19 protocols in time, it's not the end of the world for them. His long-term future in Green Bay after his "immunization" stunt is another question, but Jordan Love didn't exactly provide the organization with much reassurance in his spot start. Last week's loss to Kansas City was the first time since the team's Week 1 disaster the Packers scored fewer than 24 points, a figure the defense has held the opposition below in six consecutive weeks. Keep Wilson below that mark could be a challenge unless Russ is rusty, however.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RB Chris Carson (IR, neck)

GB injuries: QB Rodgers (questionable, COVID-19), LT David Bakhtiari (doubtful, knee), C Josh Myers (IR, knee), OLB Za'Darius Smith (IR, back), CB Jaire Alexander (IR, shoulder), CB Eric Stokes (questionable, knee)

SEA DFS targets: none

GB DFS targets: Aaron Jones $6,900 DK / $8,200 FD (SEA 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

SEA DFS fades: Freddie Swain $3,000 DK / $5,000 FD (GB first in DVOA vs. WR3)

GB DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA is 31st in third-down conversions at 31.3 percent; GB is 20th in third-down defense at 41.6 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-30s, 13-15 mph wind, 5-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Alex Collins leads the SEA backfield with 70 yards. Wilson throws for 260 yards and three touchdowns in his return, hitting Metcalf (who tops 100 yards) twice and Lockett once. Jones manages 100 combined yards and a receiving score, while AJ Dillon bangs out 50 yards. Rodgers wins the battle and the war, throwing for 290 yards and three more TDs, finding Davante Adams twice and Allen Lazard once. Packers 28-27

Kansas City at Las Vegas (+2.5), o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Kansas City has won three of its last four, but it hasn't been due to Patrick Mahomes. He continues to struggle, and the team has totaled 36 points the last three games — a figure more like what you'd expect out of Houston or Jacksonville than this once-mighty attack. Tyreek Hill has lost more than two yards off his aDOT compared to last season, but that's nothing against the rough time Mecole Hardman's having — his aDOT has gone from 10.4 to 6.7. Only Travis Kelce is producing anything close to his expected numbers. For as much as this year feels like a disaster, the team is still 5-4 and basically tied for the AFC West lead (all four teams have five wins), and it wouldn't take much to get them back on track. The Raiders' loss last week to the Giants seemed kind of inevitable, as it was only so long before reeling from one off-field PR nightmare to another would take its toll on the locker room. There's now also a distressing lack of options for Derek Carr to throw to. He's got dependable chain-movers in Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller, but no one to reliably stretch the field and keep lanes open for those two. In fact, the situation looks a lot like the one in Atlanta, only Carr never had a Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley to feel nostalgic about. If the K.C. passing game wakes up, the Raiders could well get buried (as they usually do in this rivalry), but that's an "if" that grows larger with every passing game.

The Skinny

KC injuries: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (IR, knee), RT Mike Remmers (out, knee), RT Lucas Niang (out, ribs), CB L'Jarius Sneed (questionable, ankle)

LV injuries: LG Richie Incognito (IR, calf), CB Trayvon Mullen (IR, toe)

KC DFS targets: Kelce $6,900 DK / $7,500 FD (LV 25th in DVOA vs. TE)

LV DFS targets: Carr $6,000 DK / $7,400 FD (KC 27th in passing DVOA, 29th in YPA allowed), Josh Jacobs $6,200 DK / $7,200 FD and Kenyan Drake $5,100 DK / $5,700 FD (KC 29th in rushing DVOA, 29th in YPC allowed, 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB) 

KC DFS fades: none

LV DFS fades: none

Key stat: LV is t-18th in third-down conversions at 39.2 percent; KC is 28th in third-down defense at 43.1 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 KC, average score 31-20 KC, average margin of victory 14 points. KC is 13-3 since 2013, scoring at least 20 points in all 16 meetings

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Darrel Williams leads the K.C. backfield with 70 yards. Mahomes throws for 260 yards and scores to Kelce and Hill. Jacobs collects 80 yards and a TD, while Drake adds 80 combined yards. Carr throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Waller and Bryan Edwards. Raiders 30-20

Baltimore at Miami (+7.5), o/u 46.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Ravens remain atop the AFC North at 6-2, but only by a whisker (or I guess a feather in their case) as the Bengals are in the basement at 5-4 but are one of the teams that have beaten them. Baltimore won their second overtime game of the year last week against Minnesota, which in retrospect seems inevitable, and the offense continues to do enough to overcome an uncharacteristically generous defense. That's mostly due to Lamar Jackson, though, who continues to air it out at a heretofore unheard-of pace for him — dude is in the top 10 in the league in both passing yards and rushing yards, which is just ridiculous. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are 2-7 and would be picking third in 2022 if the season ended now. (Would be, that is, if they hadn't dealt the pick to the Eagles to move up last year from No. 12 to No. 6 to take Jaylen Waddle. Whoops). Tua Tagovailoa is apparently over his rib injury but is still nursing a finger issue, and as a result he could sit again — probably not a bad idea considering Miami is down to its third-string center. Last week's ugly win over a rusty Tyrod Taylor and the Texans snapped a seven-game losing streak, and it marked only the second time all season the Dolphins has held an opponent to less than 23 points. That's OK, though, since the offense has only scored more than 20 points twice. At least the two units are balanced in their futility.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: RB Latavius Murray (doubtful, ankle), WR Sammy Watkins (questionable, thigh), LG Ben Cleveland (IR, knee), RT Patrick Mekari (doubtful, ankle), CB Marcus Peters (IR, knee), S DeShon Elliott (IR, pectoral)

MIA injuries: QB Tagovailoa (questionable, finger), WR DeVante Parker (IR, shoulder), WR Will Fuller (IR, finger), C Michael Deiter (IR, foot), C Greg Mancz (IR, ankle), S Jason McCourty (IR, foot)

BAL DFS targets: Jackson $13,800 DK / $17,500 FD (MIA 30th in passing yards per game allowed, t-30th in passing TDs allowed), Devin Duvernay $4,800 DK / $6,500 FD (MIA 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3), Ravens DEF $4,400 DK (t-4th in pressure rate, MIA 31st in giveaways, 28th in points per game)

MIA DFS targets: Jacoby Brissett $9,800 DK / $14,000 FD (BAL 31st in passing yards per game allowed, t-28th in YPA allowed), Myles Gaskin $9,400 DK / $11,000 FD (BAL 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)

BAL DFS fades: none

MIA DFS fades: none

Key stat: BAL is 23rd in third-down conversions at 37.0 percent; MIA is 31st in third-down defense at 48.8 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 10-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Devonta Freeman leads the BAL backfield with 80 combined yards and a score. Jackson throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Duvernay while running for 50 yards and his first rushing TD since Week 2. Gaskin puts together 70 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Brissett starts and throws for 230 yards and a score to Mike Gesicki. Ravens 21-17

Last week's record: 5-9, 6-8 ATS, 9-5 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 87-49, 73-62-1 ATS, 62-73-1 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1201-721-6, 932-929-67 ATS, 672-717-27 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)