NFL Game Previews: Bears-Steelers Matchup

Chicago (+6.5) at Pittsburgh, o/u 40.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Justin Fields has finally started running to the relief of anyone with fantasy shares in him, picking up 184 yards and a TD on the ground the last three games. The Bears have also lost all three and the rookie has a 2:5 TD:INT over that stretch, so don't be surprised if Matt Nagy tried to get in the kid's head and keep him in the pocket to try and "fix" him, because hey, it's Matt Nagy. Chicago's also found its own Elijah Mitchell in Khalil Herbert, who since becoming the starter four games ago (as essentially the last man standing) has averaged 97 scrimmage yards a game. Once David Montgomery gets healthy, it'll be interesting to see how Nagy handles the workload split between them, but let's give some credit to an underappreciated offensive line for making both look good this year. Ditto for the Steelers' unit and Najee Harris, though I still marvel at front offices spending real draft capital on RBs when guys like Herbert and Mitchell surface every single year. Pittsburgh's now 4-3 after coming out on top against the Browns last week, and while the Ben Roethlisberger-led offense can't regularly score 30 points any more, the T.J. Watt-led defense is starting to consistently keep opponents to 20 or less, which is a formula that works. Could all four teams in the AFC North make the playoffs? The Steelers are arguably the weakest link, and they look pretty good for at least a run at a wild card.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: RB David Montgomery (IR, knee), RB Tarik Cohen (out, knee), RB Damien Williams (questionable, knee), WR Darnell Mooney (questionable, groin), RT Germain Ifedi (IR, knee/COVID-19), LB Alec Ogletree (questionable, ankle), OLB Khalil Mack (questionable, foot), S Eddie Jackson (questionable, hamstring) 

PIT injuries: QB Roethlisberger (questionable, pectoral), TE Eric Ebron (questionable, hamstring), DE Stephon Tuitt (IR, undisclosed)

CHI DFS targets: none

PIT DFS targets: Diontae Johnson $6,700 DK / $7,200 FD (CHI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Steelers DEF $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (CHI 32nd in sacks allowed, 31st in points per game)

CHI DFS fades: none

PIT DFS fades: Pat Freiermuth $3,800 DK / $5,000 FD (CHI fourth in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: CHI is 26th in red-zone conversions at 55.0 percent; PIT is fifth in red-zone defense at 47.6 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Herbert manages 60 yards and a score. Fields throws for less than 200 yards (again) and runs for 40 but gets picked off twice. Harris bangs out 130 combined yards and two touchdowns. Roethlisberger throws for 240 yards and two TDs, both to Johnson. Steelers 28-13

Atlanta (+6) at New Orleans, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Falcons have been among the best of the worst this season, going 3-2 while playing five consecutive games decided by seven points or less against teams currently no better than .500 (and sometimes much, much worse). In fact, if the season ended now they wouldn't even have a top-10 draft pick, which is hard to wrap my head around. The offense hasn't been great, but Matt Ryan at least seems to have one guy going good at a time, and while early on it was Cordarrelle Patterson, lately it's been Kyle Pitts. One guy it won't be any time soon is Calvin Ridley, who is one of an increasing number of high-profile athletes — Naomi Osaka and Carey Price, for example — who have prioritized their mental health and stepped away from their sport to deal with it. Ridley's decision is admirable, but it leaves Atlanta with an undermanned offense and a woeful defense that just coughed up more than 200 rushing yards to a Christian McCaffrey-less Panthers squad. The Saints, on the other hand, have won three straight and can take over first place in the NFC South with a win. Their path to a division crown became a lot more fraught when Jameis Winston was lost for the season last week, however. Trevor Siemian got them across the finish line against the Bucs, but Taysom Hill might end up being Sean Payton's preferred option at quarterback in the long run. Either way, it'll be Alvin Kamara, and especially the defense, who takes them to the playoffs — the unit is fourth in points per game allowed, 10th in yards per play allowed and second in QB rating against.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: WR Ridley (out, personal), OLB Dante Fowler (IR, knee)

NO injuries: QB Winston (out, knee), WR Michael Thomas (out. Ankle), LG Andrus Peat (IR, pectoral), S Malcolm Jenkins (questionable, knee)

ATL DFS targets: none

NO DFS targets: Marquez Callaway $5,000 DK / $5,400 FD (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)

ATL DFS fades: Ryan $5,600 DK / $6,700 FD (NO second in passing DVOA), Mike Davis $4,700 DK / $5,600 FD (NO second in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed), Pitts $5,900 DK / $6,600 FD (NO second in DVOA vs. TE)

NO DFS fades: none

Key stat: NO is seventh in red-zone conversions at 68.0 percent; ATL is 20th in red-zone defense at 65.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 NO, average score 26-24 NO, average margin of victory 10 points. NO has won six of the last seven meetings

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Davis manages 50 yards. Ryan throws for 240 yards and a score to Patterson. Kamara piles up 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Siemian starts and throws for 220 yards, but Hill runs for 40 and a TD. Saints 23-13

Denver (+9.5) at Dallas, o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Broncos pulled out of their death spiral last week against Washington to climb back to .500 and got Jerry Jeudy back to boot, but the front office made it clear what it thought of the roster's playoff chances when it sent Von Miller to the Rams at the trade deadline. There's enough chaos in the AFC West that a late run can't be ruled out, but a move like that has a tendency to rip the heart out of a locker room, and there's going to be even more pressure now on Teddy Bridgewater to start using his talented receiving corps to produce, y'know, actual yards and points and stuff. He'll need to scrape together every point he can against a Team of Destiny like the Cowboys. No Dak Prescott? No problem, as Cooper Rush miraculously led them to a win in Minnesota last week. This week Dallas will have to make do without Tyron Smith, but they've barely used La'el Collins since getting him back from suspension so the offensive line should still be able to get the job done, especially against a depleted pass rush. They've been effective as a "pick your poison" scheme that forces the defense to decide who to worry about and then gets the ball to one of their gazillion other dangerous options, but Dak might have his pick this time around.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: TE Noah Fant (doubtful, COVID-19), TE Albert Okwuegbunam (questionable, knee), LT Garett Boles (out, ankle), RG Graham Glasgow (questionable, hip), OLB Bradley Chubb (IR, ankle), OLB Malik Reed (questionable, hip), CB Bryce Callahan (IR, knee), CB Michael Ojemudia (IR, hamstring)

DAL injuries: WR Amari Cooper (questionable, hamstring), WR CeeDee Lamb (questionable, ankle), WR Michael Gallup (IR, calf), LT Smith (doubtful, ankle), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot)

DEN DFS targets: Okwuegbunam $2,600 DK / $4,500 FD (DAL 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

DAL DFS targets: Lamb $7,200 DK / $7,500 FD (DEN 27th in DVOA vs. WR1)

DEN DFS fades: Courtland Sutton $5,900 DK / $6,700 FD (DAL first in DVOA vs. WR1)

DAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: DEN is t-26th in third-down conversions at 34.7 percent; DAL is second in third-down defense at 31.3 percent

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Melvin Gordon leads the DEN backfield with 70 yards and a score, while Javonte Williams adds 60 yards. Bridgewater throws for 260 yards and a TD to Okwuegbunam. Ezekiel Elliott bangs out 90 yards and a touchdown, while Tony Pollard adds 60 combined yards and a TD. Prescott throws for 310 yards and two scores, finding Lamb and Cooper. Cowboys 28-20

New England at Carolina (+3.5), o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Don't look now, but the Patriots are only one win behind the Bills in the AFC East, and the two teams won't have their first meeting until Week 13. There could be real drama down the stretch in this division. Mac Jones is coming off arguably his worst performance yet, and while he's been the best of this year's crop of rookie QBs by default, he has yet to put up good numbers against a good secondary. The Pats don't really need him to be great, though. Their running game has been solid, and while the defense isn't elite, it's been very good in certain key areas (eighth in points per game allowed, third in QB rating against). Maybe Bill Belichick did contribute a little something to that Tom Brady dynasty after all. Carolina is also 4-4, but it barely squeaked out a win against the Falcons last week to snap a four-game losing streak. Sam Darnold came out of that one banged up, and if he can't go P.J. Walker would on paper be a big step backward, which is saying something given how shaky Darnold's been. The Panthers could get Christian McCaffrey back, though, which for this offense is probably a bigger factor than whoever is under center, and the defense remains mostly excellent, ranking second in yards per play allowed and fifth in points per game allowed. In other words, I'm not sure how the over here starts with a 4 — it feels like a trap.

The Skinny

NE injuries: TE Jonnu Smith (questionable, shoulder), RG Shaq Mason (questionable, abdomen), RT Trent Brown (IR, calf), K Nick Folk (questionable, knee), LB Dont'a Hightower (questionable, ankle), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, ribs), LB Kyle Van Noy (questionable, groin), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, neck)

CAR injuries: QB Darnold (questionable, concussion/shoulder), RB McCaffrey (IR, hamstring), LG Pat Elflein (questionable, shoulder), RG John Miller (IR, ankle), CB Jaycee Horn (IR, foot)

NE DFS targets: Jakobi Meyers $5,200 DK / $5,500 FD (CAR 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

CAR DFS targets: none

NE DFS fades: Nelson Agholor $4,100 DK / $5,400 FD (CAR third in DVOA vs. WR2), Hunter Henry $4,000 DK / $5,300 FD (CAR third in DVOA vs. TE)

CAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR is 22nd in red-zone conversions at 56.0 percent; NE is t-11th in red-zone defense at 56.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, 9-11 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Damien Harris picks up 80 yards and a score. Jones throws for 220 yards and a TD to Meyers. CMac sits again, while Chuba Hubbard leads the CAR backfield with 80 combined yards. Darnold plays and throws for 250 yards but tosses a pick-six to J.C. Jackson. Patriots 21-12

Minnesota (+6) at Baltimore, o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

It's the most wonderful time of the year, if you're seriously into purple. These two teams haven't clashed since 2017 (a 24-16 win for the Vikings), and the all-time record between them stands at 3-3, so this year's Plum Bowl has a lot of bragging rights riding on it. In terms of the actual standings, at 3-4 the Vikings can probably write off an NFC North title unless Aaron Rodgers' vaccination idiocy takes a much darker turn. They're probably still a wild-card caliber club, though, even after getting somewhat humiliated at home last week by losing to the Cowboys' no-name backup QB. Kirk Cousins has been doing a great job minimizing his mistakes this season — two picks and zero lost fumbles in seven starts — but his production is drying up, and he's tossed only one TD in three of the last four games. The Ravens backed into first place in the AFC North on their bye courtesy of the Jets, but they're kind of a shaky 5-2. Lamar Jackson has a career-high 8.6 YPA and is going to shatter his prior top mark for passing yards in a season, but he hasn't been able to get the ball into the end zone consistently either, managing only 10 passing and two rushing TDs through seven games. Given that the defense isn't what it once was — Baltimore is somehow 30th in yards per play allowed — Jackson will need to start churning out more points if the Ravens are going to stay ahead of the pack in a division that has no teams below .500.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: C Garrett Bradbury (doubtful, COVID-19), DE Danielle Hunter (IR, pectoral), OLB Anthony Barr (questionable, knee), CB Patrick Peterson (IR, hamstring)

BAL injuries: RB Latavius Murray (doubtful, ankle), WR Sammy Watkins (questionable, thigh), WR Rashod Bateman (questionable, groin), LG Ben Cleveland (IR, knee), RT Patrick Mekari (doubtful, ankle)

MIN DFS targets: Dalvin Cook $7,700 DK / $8,800 FD (BAL 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)

BAL DFS targets: Bateman $4,000 DK / $5,400 FD (MIN 24th in DVOA vs. WR2)

MIN DFS fades: none

BAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: BAL is 23rd in third-down conversions at 36.5 percent; MIN is fifth in third-down defense at 32.6 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Cook pops for 130 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Cousins throws for 280 yards and a second TD to Tyler Conklin. Devonta Freeman leads the BAL backfield with 60 scrimmage yards. Jackson throws for 250 yards and two scores, finding Bateman and Devin Duvernay, and he runs for 50 yards. Vikings 27-23

Cleveland (+2.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Odell Beckham era is over in Cleveland after one pretty good full season and two partial-season clunkers. The Browns won't miss him, but he should get a chance to show what he has left in the tank in the second half wherever he lands (my money's on the Saints, though they'd have to wait until he clears waivers. Of the teams with the cap space to claim him outright, the Steelers would be hilarious and they did just lose JuJu Smith-Schuster, but the Seahawks are the only ones who really seem vaguely plausible). Cleveland is a run-first, run-second and run-third team, though, and the Browns have the defense to play that style of game, so nothing much will change for them. The Bengals should be utterly mortified they lost to the Jets last week and will be looking for someone to take their frustrations out on — combine that with a divisional rivalry game that was already likely to be physical and chirpy, and there could be a lot yellow hankies flying around. Joe Burrow is the only QB in the league who's thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this season, and his 9.0 YPA isn't shabby either. The recent history between these two clubs has been that one team or the other dominates for stretches while the other is mired in a rebuild, but we might finally be entering a period in which they're both contenders.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: RB Kareem Hunt (IR, calf), WR Beckham (out, shoulder), WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (questionable, groin), RT Jack Conklin (out, elbow), DE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, ankle), CB Denzel Ward (questionable, hamstring)

CIN injuries: RG Xavier Su'a-Filo (IR, knee), CB Trae Waynes (IR, hamstring)

CLE DFS targets: none

CIN DFS targets: Ja'Marr Chase $7,600 DK / $7,900 FD (CLE 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)

CLE DFS fades: none

CIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: CIN is fifth in red-zone conversions at 70.0 percent; CLE is 26th in red-zone defense at 69.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 27-23 CIN, average margin of victory 11 points. CLE has won five of the last six meetings, but their last four wins have only been by a single score

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Nick Chubb gains 90 yards and a TD. Baker Mayfield throws for 240 yards and a score to Jarvis Landry but gets picked off twice. Joe Mixon racks up 80 yards and a score. Burrow throws for 320 yards and three TDs, hitting Chase (who tops 100 yards) twice and Tee Higgins once. Bengals 34-17

Buffalo at Jacksonville (+14.5), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

It's time for the inaugural Josh Allen Bowl, as the Bills quarterback tangles with the Jaguars edge rusher for the first time. That might be the only two things these two teams have in common. Buffalo's in first place in the AFC East and have their eyes set on a Super Bowl appearance; Jacksonville's only not in the basement in the AFC South because the Texans lost while the Jags were on their bye, and they have their eyes locked on either the 2022 draft or Urban Meyer's last day with the organization, whichever comes first. The Bills' defense continues to put up just stupid numbers, and I continue to have to make adjustments for it in my formula to avoid them being projected to win games by 50 instead of "only" 30-ish points, but that's what happens when you're leading the league in both scoring and scoring defense. The Jags are coming off a 24-point loss to Geno Smith, which seems about right. This team has yet to score more than 23 points in a game while allowing an average of 29.0 and only holding one opponent to less than 23, so a 1-6 record might actually be a bit lucky. Trevor Lawrence hasn't tossed multiple TDs in a game since Week 1, and his chances of breaking that streak here seem remote, especially if James Robinson isn't 100 percent healthy and gives the Bills even less reason to worry about the Jags' ground game.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: WR Cole Beasley (questionable, ribs), TE Dawson Knox (out, hand), LG Jon Feliciano (out, calf), RT Spencer Brown (out, back), S Jordan Poyer (questionable, shoulder)

JAC injuries: RB Robinson (questionable, heel), C Brandon Linder (IR, knee)

BUF DFS targets: Josh Allen $8,200 DK / $9,000 FD (JAC 32nd in passing DVOA, 31st in YPA allowed), Emmanuel Sanders $5,600 DK / $6,500 FD (JAC 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Beasley $5,400 DK / $6,300 FD (JAC 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3), Tommy Sweeney $3,100 DK / $4,700 FD (JAC 31st in DVOA vs. TE), Bills DEF $4,000 DK / $5,200 FD (t-1st in takeaways, first in points per game allowed)

JAC DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: none

JAC DFS fades: Lawrence $5,400 DK / $6,400 FD (BUF first in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, first in TD% allowed), Lavishka Shenault $4,400 DK / $5,500 FD (BUF first in DVOA vs. WR2), Jaguars DEF $2,000 DK / $3,000 FD (t-30th in sacks, 32nd in takeaways, BUF t-1st in sacks allowed, t-2nd in giveaways, first in points per game)

Key stat: JAC is 31st in third-down conversions at 32.1 percent; BUF is t-5th in third-down defense at 32.6 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, 11 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Zack Moss chugs along for 70 yards and a TD, while Devin Singletary adds 50 yards. Allen throws for 300 yards and two scores, hitting whoever he wants Sanders and Beasley while Stefon Diggs tops 100 yards, and he also runs in a touchdown. Carlos Hyde leads the JAC backfield with 50 yards. Lawrence throws for less than 200 yards, gets picked off twice and sacked five times. Bills 34-3

Houston (+6.5) at Miami, o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Since it seems to be a weekend for unofficial bowl games, let's call this one the Deshaun Bowl. Watson didn't become a Dolphin at the trade deadline, but it could still easily happen in the offseason. In the meantime Tyrod Taylor seems ready to reclaim the starting job from Davis Mills, though the timing is weird with Houston on its bye next week. His return should steady the offense, but Taylor still doesn't have much in the way of dangerous options outside of Brandin Cooks, and he's down two starting offensive linemen. On the other sideline, Tua Tagovailoa will get another half-season to show he's the future at QB for Miami, but his chances are running out, especially if he keeps getting banged up. Tua, too, doesn't have many targets he can trust, though Jaylen Waddle plus Mike Gesicki is still a step up from what Houston has on display. The Dolphins' secondary also seems mostly healthy too, even if this matchup isn't really a great showcase for the skills of the team's pricey corners — putting Byron Jones on, I dunno, Chris Conley or whoever just seems like overkill.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: QB Taylor (IR, hamstring), QB Deshaun Watson (out), TE Pharaoh Brown (out, thigh), LT Laremy Tunsil (IR, thumb), C Justin Britt (IR, knee), LB Christian Kirksey (out,. thumb)

MIA injuries: QB Tagovailoa (questionable, finger/ribs), WR DeVante Parker (IR, shoulder), WR Will Fuller (IR, finger), C Michael Deiter (IR, foot), LB Jerome Baker (questionable, knee), S Jason McCourty (IR, foot)

HOU DFS targets: Danny Amendola $3,200 DK / $4,800 FD (MIA 31st in DVOA vs. WR3) 

MIA DFS targets: Myles Gaskin $5,800 DK / $6,100 FD (HOU 31st in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed)

HOU DFS fades: none

MIA DFS fades: Waddle $5,600 DK / $6,100 FD (HOU second in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: HOU is 19th in third-down conversions at 39.4 percent; MIA is 31st in third-down defense at 50.9 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 70s, 13 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: David Johnson leads the HOU backfield with 80 combined yards and a TD, while Phillip Lindsay adds 50 yards. Taylor throws for 270 yards and touchdown to Cooks and Jordan Akins. Gaskin rings up 90 yards and a score, but he also loses a fumble that Kevin Pierre-Louis returns to the house. Tua throws for 250 yards and TDs to Gesicki and Preston Williams. Texans 28-27

Las Vegas at N.Y. Giants (+3), o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Raiders shook off the Jon Gruden situation pretty well, but there's no way to predict how the tragedy that got Henry Ruggs booted off the roster will impact the rest of the locker room. Derek Carr has to throw to somebody, of course, but removing Ruggs from the picture could just as easily mean more targets for a healthy Darren Waller, or more work for the pass-catching RBs, as any particular wide receiver taking on a bigger role. Sitting at the top of the AFC west at 5-2 might be enough to keep the team focused, though. The Giants' season already seems over, and a close loss to Kansas City last week doesn't seem anywhere near as impressive at it would have not too long ago. Some of the key injured players are getting healthier (at least on offense) so maybe Daniel Jones will be able to start scoring points consistently in a couple weeks, but they're one of a handful of teams who have yet to score at least 30 points in a game in 2021. As for the defense, it did do a number on Sam Darnold a couple games ago and held Patrick Mahomes to 20 points, so there's hope for the second half of the season on that front too. The best-case scenario for the Giants might be playing spoiler against someone like the Chargers (Week 14) or Bears (Week 17).

The Skinny

LV injuries: LG Richie Incognito (IR, calf), CB Trayvon Mullen (IR, toe), CB Damon Arnette (IR, groin)

NYG injuries: RB Saquon Barkley (out. Ankle), WR Kenny Golladay (questionable, knee), WR Sterling Shepard (out, quadriceps), LT Andrew Thomas (IR, ankle)

LV DFS targets: none

NYG DFS targets: Evan Engram $3,800 DK / $5,100 FD (LV 26th in DVOA vs. TE)

LV DFS fades: Kenyan Drake $5,100 DK / $6,200 FD (NYG third in passing DVOA vs. RB)

NYG DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYG are 21st in third-down conversions at 38.1 percent; LV is eighth in third-down defense at 36.8 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Josh Jacobs rumbles for 80 yards and a score, while Drake adds 40 yards. Carr throws for 290 yards and three TDs, hitting Bryan Edwards, Hunter Renfrow and Waller. Devontae Booker picks up 80 yards. Jones throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, finding Engram and Kadarius Toney. Raiders 31-23 

L.A. Chargers at Philadelphia (+1.5), o/u 50.0
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

One of the fun things about football analysis is trying to determine when something is a major factor, and when it's small-sample noise. Case in point: the Chargers lost right tackle Bryan Bulaga after Week 1 (he doesn't seem close to returning) and starting right guard Oday Aboushi tore his ACL and was lost for the year in Week 5. Is it a coincidence that Justin Herbert has had his two worst games of the season with the entire right side of his offensive line on the shelf? The Eagles' pass rush isn't what it once was (tied for 18th in the league in sacks and tied for 12th in pressure rate), and Herbert only got sacked five times total in those games, but getting rid of the ball in a hurry has led to half of his INTs on the year. Austin Ekeler can only do so much — this offense doesn't function well if Herbert can't attack downfield. At least the Chargers' backfield makes sense. Miles Sanders went down for Philly, and it was Boston Scott and Jordan Howard somehow reaping the benefits. Jalen Hurts remains a fantasy stud with a high ceiling thanks to his legs, but he's thrown for less than 200 yards in three of the last four games and also failed to complete 60 percent of his passes in three of those four. The team is 3-5 and could work its way into the wild-card race in the NFC, especially considering their remaining schedule — the Eagles get all four of their games against the Giants and Washington, plus a Jets game for good measure, sandwiched around their bye Weeks 12-17. Even if they sweep that stretch, though, they'll still need to snag an extra win games like this to finish above .500.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: RT Bulaga (IR, back), LB Kenneth Murray (IR, ankle), CB Michael Davis (out, hamstring)

PHI injuries: RB Sanders (IR, ankle), RG Brandon Brooks (IR, pectoral)

LAC DFS targets: none

PHI DFS targets: Scott $5,200 DK / $6,300 FD and Howard $4,600 DK / $5,700 FD and Kenneth Gainwell $5,000 DK / $5,200 FD (LAC 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed)

LAC DFS fades: none

PHI DFS fades: Jalen Reagor $4,000 DK / $5,200 FD (LAC fourth in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: LAC are ninth in third-down conversions at 43.5 percent; PHI is 26th in third-down defense at 43.6 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ekeler piles up 110 combined yards and a TD. Herbert finds some time and throws for 280 yards and two scores, hitting Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer. Scott leads the PHI backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Hurts throws for 210 yards and a TD to Dallas Goedert while running for 50 yards and a score of his own. Chargers 30-24

Green Bay (+7) at Kansas City, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Vegas thinks Aaron Rodgers is worth about 4.5 points, apparently, since that's how much the spread had moved when I pulled it during the week. If Jordan Love plays well in his place, though, the Packers might be immunized (ahem) against future hits to their odds. (The real villain is Joe Rogan though — the fact that the dude's nonsense cost us a Rodgers-Mahomes showdown should be a good enough reason on its own to stop listening to him.) Green Bay's big win last week has kind of been forgotten in the wake of the latest Rodgers drama, but after downing the Cards they've won seven straight and already seem to have the NFC North locked up. Their secret weapon lately has been AJ Dillon, as the big man has gotten double-digit carries in three of the last five games and averaged 5.2 yards per carry in those three contests. Aaron Jones topped 100 scrimmage yards in all three of them too, so if there's a template for a win in Love's first career start, it might be heavy reliance on that thunder-and-lightning backfield duo. Kansas City is clinging to a .500 record by its fingernails, but while it sits in the basement in the AFC West, it's at least no more dysfunctional than anyone else in the division. I still believe Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will get things sorted out on offense, but it would help if he got more time to let routes develop for his speedy wideouts, or if the defense could get a stop once in a while. Derrick Henry steamrolled them a couple weeks ago, and now it could be Dillon's turn.

The Skinny

GB injuries: QB Rodgers (out, COVID-19), WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (IR, hamstring), TE Robert Tonyan (IR, knee), LT David Bakhtiari (out, knee), C Josh Myers (IR, knee), OLB Za'Darius Smith (IR, back), CB Jaire Alexander (IR, shoulder)

KC injuries: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (IR, knee), RT Mike Remmers (out. knee)

GB DFS targets: Love $4,400 DK / $6,000 FD (KC 30th in passing DVOA, 29th in YPA allowed, 31st in rushing yards allowed to QB, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed to QB)

KC DFS targets: Mecole Hardman $3,900 DK / $5,400 FD (GB 27th in DVOA vs. WR2), Travis Kelce $7,000 DK / $7,800 FD (GB 25th in DVOA vs. TE)

GB DFS fades: Randall Cobb $4,500 DK / $5,600 FD (KC second in DVOA vs. WR3)

KC DFS fades: Byron Pringle $3,700 DK / $5,500 FD and Demarcus Robinson $3,400 DK / $5,200 FD (GB first in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: KC is first in third-down conversions at 54.9 percent; GB is t-23rd in third-down defense at 42.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, 13-14 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jones leads the GB backfield with 110 scrimmage yards and a score, while Dillon rumbles for 80 yards and a TD. Love isn't asked to do too much, throwing for less than 200 yards but finding Davante Adams for a touchdown. Darrel Williams leads the KC backfield with 60 yards. Mahomes throws for 300 yards and two TDs, hitting Tyreek Hill and Kelce. Kansas City 23-21

Arizona at San Francisco (+2.5), o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

If Kyler Murray were healthy for this one, I had it 27-14 Cardinals. Instead, he hasn't practiced all week after injuring his ankle in last Thursday's loss, and it seems likely Colt McCoy will start instead. That's, uhh, gonna require a bit of a switch in offensive scheme. Making matters worse for Arizona is that whoever's under center will have fewer options than usual, as A.J. Green makes his way through the COVID-19 protocols and DeAndre Hopkins' hamstring doesn't seem to have improved much after he played only 24 percent of the snaps in that loss to the Packers. The 49ers aren't any healthier, of course, but hey, at least they're at home. Last week's win over the Bears snapped a four-game losing streak, and another win here gets them back to .500. Fun fact: Jimmy Garoppolo has as many rushing TDs this season as Murray does after his pair of scores against Chicago. He might get Goerge Kittle back this week too, and just in time as now Deebo Samuel is hobbled. The last game between these two teams was a 17-10 victory for the Cards in Week 5, so surely offense will be even tougher to come by with so many stars banged up on both squads. Right?

The Skinny

ARI injuries: QB Murray (questionable, ankle), WR DeAndre Hopkins (questionable, hamstring), WR A.J. Green (out, COVID-19), C Rodney Hudson (IR, ribs), C Max Garcia (questionable, Achilles), DE J.J. Watt (out, shoulder)

SF injuries: RB Elijah Mitchell (questionable, ribs), RB Jeff Wilson (out, knee), WR Samuel (questionable, calf), TE Kittle (IR, calf), K Robbie Gould (IR, groin), DE Dee Ford (questionable, back), DT Javon Kinlaw (IR, knee), LB Dre Greenlaw (IR, groin), S Jimmie Ward (out, quadriceps), S Jaquiski Tartt (IR, knee)

ARI DFS targets: Rondale Moore $4,200 DK / $5,300 FD (SF 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

SF DFS targets: none

ARI DFS fades: none

SF DFS fades: Garoppolo $5,700 DK / $7,200 FD (ARI second in passing DVOA, fourth in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed), Brandon Aiyuk $4,100 DK / $5,500 FD (ARI second in DVOA vs. WR2), Kittle $5,200 DK / $6,000 FD (ARI first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: ARI is sixth in red-zone conversions at 69.4 percent; SF is t-22nd in red-zone defense at 68.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 ARI, average score 22-19 ARI, average margin of victory seven points. The last 10 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, and five of the last six by a single score

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Chase Edmonds gains 70 combined yards, while James Conner adds 50 yards and a score. McCoy starts and throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, finding Moore and Christian Kirk, but also gets picked off twice. Mitchell doesn't play, and Trey Sermon leads the SF backfield with 60 yards. Garoppolo throws for 270 yards and a TD to Mohamed Sanu while running in a score of his own. 49ers 23-21

Tennessee (+7.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 53.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Vegas thinks Derrick Henry is worth about 3.5 points, apparently. Seems low if you ask me. The Titans scrambled to add Adrian Peterson in the wake of Henry's injury, and we've seen this scenario before — AP sits out a while, comes back fresh and runs way better than he has any right to at his age. (If you're in a deep fantasy league though, stash D'Onta Foreman, just in case). I just don't see how Tennessee's offense works without that unstoppable force in the backfield, though. Yes, A.J. Brown is excellent and Julio Jones can still flash, even if he's just as allergic to the end zone as he was in Atlanta, but Ryan Tannehill the pocket passer is nowhere near as effective as Ryan Tannehill the play-action guy. Stacking the deck just a little more against the AFC South leaders is the fact they could be down two offensive linemen just in time for Von Miller to make his Rams debut. Picked up at the trade deadline, the former Bronco is just the latest huge name to join the L.A. Defense, bolstering a pass rush that ... oh, they were already leading the league in sacks. Actually, that was a bit of an illusion, as they're tied for 23rd in pressure rate, so good job GM Les Snead. More stops on defense will also give Matthew Stafford more chances to make his MVP case, as while he's second in the league right now to Tom Brady in bulk stats like passing yards and TDs, Stafford's crushing him in YPA 9.1 to 7.7.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: RB Henry (IR, foot), WR Brown (questionable, knee), LT Taylor Lewan (questionable, knee), RG Nate Davis (out, concussion), LB Rashaan Evans (out, ankle), LB Jayon Brown (IR, knee). CB Kristian Fulton (IR, hamstring)

LAR injuries: WR Robert Woods (questionable, foot), OLB Miller (questionable, ankle), CB Jalen Ramsey (questionable, knee), CB Darious Williams (IR, ankle) 

TEN DFS targets: Brown $7,500 DK / $7,700 FD (LAR 25th in DVOA vs. WR1)

LAR DFS targets: Van Jefferson $4,000 DK / $5,500 FD (TEN 27th in DVOA vs. WR3)

TEN DFS fades: Titans DEF $2,300 DK / $3,400 FD (LAR t-1st in sacks allowed, fifth in points per game)

LAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAR are fifth in third-down conversions at 46.2 percent; TEN is t-16th in third-down defense at 40.6 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Peterson leads the TEN backfield with 70 yards. Tannehill throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Brown but gets picked off twice and sacked for a safety by Aaron Donald. Darrell Henderson gallops for 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Stafford throws for 320 yards and two TDs, finding Jefferson and Cooper Kupp. Rams 29-10

N.Y. Jets (+10.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 45.5
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

Last week's Backuppalooza was a lot of fun, but I just want to take a moment to commend the offensive coordinators, like the Jets' Mike LaFleur, who didn't go ultra-conservative just because his No. 1 QB wasn't available. (The Cowboys' Kellen Moore belongs at the forefront of this conversation, but they don't play until Sunday so we're having it now). Too often OCs or head coaches make it really easy on defenses in these situations — not only do they not have to worry about the other team's starter, but they get to face a simplified scheme as well. Giving your backup opportunities to succeed, rather than trying to keep them from failing, is the approach than has the bigger potential payoff. The upshot of last week's win is, I guess the Jets have found their new franchise quarterback in Mike White. The 2018 fifth-round pick (coincidentally, taken by the Cowboys under Jason Garrett, a guy who absolutely would have focused on trying to keep White — or Cooper Rush for that matter — from failing rather than letting him loose) made the Joe Flacco trade look redundant with an absurd 405 yards and three TDs against the Bengals. He also threw two picks, so Zach Wilson's job may still be pretty safe, and no matter who's under center for the Jets the talent around him is still about what you'd expect from a team just beginning a rebuild. The Colts may have pulled off whatever the opposite of a pyrrhic victory is last week, falling three games behind the Titans in the AFC South with an overtime loss but taking out Derrick Henry in the process. Of course, if Carson Wentz keeps Wentzing things up, it won't matter who's in the Tennessee backfield. The QB's brain fart interception at his own goal line late in regulation really deserves a name to ensure it lives in infamy, a la The Butt Fumble or The Orlovsky, but I'm having trouble coming up with something appropriate. Since it was a botched shovel pass, maybe The Gravedigger? That's dumb. I'm overthinking it. Anyway, Wentz's penchant for idiocy should lead to more touches for Jonathan Taylor, which is probably a good thing for the Colts in the long run. The Jets probably can't pull off two upsets in a row, but Wentz can definitely blow two games in a row, so it'll be up to the rest of the Indy roster to make sure he doesn't get the chance.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: QB Wilson (out, knee), WR Corey Davis (questionable, hip), LT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee), LT George Fant (questionable, ankle)

IND injuries: WR T.Y. Hilton (out, concussion), LG Quenton Nelson (questionable, toe), K Rodrigo Blankenship (IR, hip), S Khari Willis (out. calf)

NYJ DFS targets: White $9,800 DK / $14,000 FD (IND 26th in YPA allowed, 32nd in TD% allowed) 

IND DFS targets: Wentz $10,800 DK / $16,500 FD (NYJ 27th in passing DVOA, 27th in passing yards per game allowed), Colts DEF $5,000 DK (first in takeaways, NYJ 31st in giveaways, 30th in points per game)

NYJ DFS fades: Michael Carter $8,600 DK / $13,000 FD (IND first in rushing DVOA, seventh in YPC allowed, first in rushing TDs allowed), Jets DEF $3,000 DK (t-29th in takeaways, 30th in points per game allowed)

IND DFS fades: none

Key stat: 18.8 percent of NYJ possessions end in a turnover, 31st in the league; 19.8 percent of drives against the IND defense end in turnovers, second in the league

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Carter manages 60 combined yards. White throws for 270 yards and a TD to Elijah Moore but gets picked off twice. Taylor piles up 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Wentz throws for 260 yards and two scores, finding Mo Alie-Cox and Zach Pascal. Colts 24-10

Last week's record: 10-5, 11-4 ATS, 5-10 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 82-40, 67-54-1 ATS, 53-68-1 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1196-712-6, 926-921-67 ATS, 663-712-27 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)