NFL Game Previews: Bills-Titans Matchups

Buffalo at Tennessee (+5.5), o/u 54.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

Last week's win over Kansas City was a big statement game for the Bills, as much for how they won it as the fact that they did it at all. The game wasn't particularly close — this wasn't a nail-biter with Josh Allen leading a triumphant late drive or anything. Buffalo stomped all over last year's AFC champs, and aside from Patrick Mahomes always being capable of something ridiculous, the game was basically over at halftime. That's why expecting some sort of letdown seems like wishful thinking. The Bills didn't treat last week's clash as a big deal, and beat up K.C. the same way they did Houston or Washington. They have the best defense, and maybe the best offense, and the gap between them and everyone else in the conference seems very wide. The Titans also lead their division, but that's mainly due to them being the only team in the AFC South with more than one win. I mean, they lost to the Jets. This is not a squad firing on all cylinders. Still, Derrick Henry seems unstoppable, so if Tennessee can get its passing game figured out and get any kind of consistent effort from its defense, they're a credible playoff contender. Again, though, getting those areas straightened out will probably need to be done against a different opponent.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: none

TEN injuries: LG Rodger Saffold (questionable, shoulder), OLB Bud Dupree (questionable, knee), LB Rashaan Evans (questionable, quadriceps), CB Kristian Fulton (questionable, hamstring)

BUF DFS targets: Bills DEF $2,900 DK / $4,500 FD (first in takeaways, first in points per game allowed, TEN 32nd in sacks allowed)

TEN DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: Dawson Knox $4,800 DK / $6,700 FD (TEN third in DVOA vs. TE)

TEN DFS fades: Ryan Tannehill $5,900 DK / $7,000 FD (BUF first in passing DVOA, second in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, third in TD% allowed), Derrick Henry $9,000 DK / $10,500 FD (BUF first in rushing DVOA, third in rushing yards per game allowed, t-1st in rushing TDs allowed), A.J. Brown $6,100 DK / $6,600 FD (BUF second in DVOA vs. WR1, first in DVOA vs. deep throws), Julio Jones $6,200 DK / $6,500 FD (BUF second in DVOA vs. WR2), Chester Rogers $3,500 DK / $5,100 FD (BUF second in DVOA vs. WR3), Anthony Firkser $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. TE), Titans DEF $2,100 DK / $3,200 FD (BUF second in sacks allowed, first in points per game)

Key stat: TEN is 26th in red-zone conversions at 56.5 percent; BUF is t-1st in red-zone defense at 35.7 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Zack Moss leads the BUF backfield with 70 yards and a score, while Devin Singletary adds 40 yards. Allen throws for 310 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Stefon Diggs (who tops 100 yards) and Gabriel Davis, while running for 50 yards and a TD of his own. Henry rumbles for 80 yards and a touchdown. Tannehill throws for 230 yards and a score to Brown. Bills 34-17

Miami vs. Jacksonville (+3.5) at London, o/u 47.0
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EDT

So far, the combined records of the teams the NFL has sent over to London is 3-15. Fans there must think they're watching a relegation battle. Miami's lost four straight, three with Jacoby Brissett at the helm, but signs point to Tua Tagovailoa coming off IR for this contest. The second-year QB wasn't off to a particularly great start to the season, but his two starts came against the Bills and Patriots (and he got knocked out early against Buffalo), so some allowances should be made. Miami's receiving corps is also less than 100 percent healthy, but this doesn't exactly profile as a matchup in which an offense needs to be firing on all cylinders. Much as the Jags should probably steal Urban Meyer's passport and leave him behind when they head home after this one, it feels like this situation could drag on for a while yet. Let's put aside the whole Ohio bar thing for a second — we're talking about a coach who publicly said he didn't "micromanage" the personnel his team puts on the field in key situations, which either means he doesn't understand his own job description or just reflexively avoids taking responsibility for things. Oh, and he also created needless drama with his young franchise quarterback over whether Trevor Lawrence could pull off something as basic as a quarterback sneak or not. Meyer is already a disaster, and there's still a dozen games left on Jacksonville's schedule. Things can't exactly get worse than 0-5, but they can get a whole lot messier.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: QB Tagovailoa (IR, ribs), QB Brissett (questionable, hamstring), WR DeVante Parker (out, shoulder), WR Will Fuller (IR, finger), WR Preston Williams (questionable, groin), C Michael Deiter (IR, foot), CB Xavien Howard (out, shoulder), CB Byron Jones (questionable, Achilles)

JAC injuries: C Brandon Linder (IR, knee), RG A.J. Cann (IR, knee), LB Myles Jack (out, oblique), CB Tyson Campbell (questionable, toe)

MIA DFS targets: Tagovailoa $4,000 DK / $6,600 FD (JAC 32nd in passing DVOA, 31st in YPA allowed), Albert Wilson $3,000 DK / $4,900 FD (JAC 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Mike Gesicki $4,300 DK / $5,800 FD (JAC 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

JAC DFS targets: Jamal Agnew $3,500 DK / $5,000 FD (MIA 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

MIA DFS fades: none

JAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC is 32nd in offensive efficiency, scoring on 22.2 percent of their drives; MIA is 30th in defensive efficiency, allowing a score on 50.0 percent of drives

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Myles Gaskin piles up 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Tagovailoa throws for 240 yards and a TD to Jaylen Waddle. James Robinson manages 80 yards. Lawrence throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Marvin Jones but also tosses a pick-six to Eric Rowe. Dolphins 21-13

Kansas City at Washington (+7), o/u 55.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Ah, scheduling synchronicities. Last week, the worst four secondaries by DVOA against No. 1 wideouts played each other, with one of those contests being the London game. This week, it's the bottom four defenses in scoring who face off — again, with the other game being across the pond. Kansas City is a shocking 2-3 and in the AFC West cellar, with the main culprits being a tough early schedule and a terrible defense that's coughed up at least 30 points in four consecutive games (after somehow managing to hold Cleveland to 29 in Week 1). It's not like Patrick Mahomes isn't doing his best to climb out of the holes, though — his offense is one of five in the league averaging at least 30 points a game too, but K.C. has as many losses as the other four teams (Arizona, Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Dallas) combined. Mahomes might need to work some true miracles as injuries mount among his skill players. Washington's also 2-3, but it's a lot less shocking. Their wins have come against the Giants and Falcons, and looking at the schedule for Ron Rivera's crew, it could be a while before they're favored to get another. Taylor Heinicke is coming off a poor outing against the Saints, but this matchup is as soft a landing as any QB could ask for, and he should get plenty of support from his running game. Some support from his defense would be even nicer, but the collapse of the unit despite all that talent along the defensive line is a bit baffling. It's not like Chase Young and company aren't getting into the backfield — they're tied for sixth in QB hits and ninth in pressure rate, but that hasn't translated to a lot of sacks. Considering how much money has been sunk into the secondary (Kendall Fuller and Landon Collins have the second- and third-highest cap hits on the roster), that group needs to step it up if Washington is going to turn things around.

The Skinny

KC injuries: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (IR, knee), WR Tyreek Hill (questionable, quadriceps), LG Joe Thuney (questionable, hand), DE Chris Jones (out, wrist), CB Charvarius Ward (out, quadriceps)

WAS injuries: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (IR, hip), RB Antonio Gibson (questionable, shin), WR Terry McLaurin (questionable, hamstring), WR Curtis Samuel (out, groin), WR Dyami Brown (questionable. knee), TE Logan Thomas (IR, hamstring), RG Brandon Scherff (out, knee), RT Samuel Cosmi (out, ankle)

KC DFS targets: Mahomes $8,300 DK / $9,000 FD (WAS 31st in TD% allowed, 30th in QB rushing yards allowed), Mecole Hardman $4,200 DK / $5,500 FD (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

WAS DFS targets: Heinicke $5,800 DK / $7,300 FD (KC 31st in passing DVOA, 30th in YPA allowed, 32nd in QB rushing yards allowed), Gibson $6,500 DK / $6,700 FD (KC 32nd in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPC allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed)

KC DFS fades: Kansas City DEF $2,800 DK / $3,800 FD (32nd in sacks, 32nd in points per game allowed)

WAS DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC is first in third-down conversions at 58.8 percent; WAS is 31st in third-down defense at 56.2 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, 13 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Darrel Williams leads the KC backfield with 70 combined yards and a TD, while Jerick McKinnon adds 60 scrimmage yards and a receiving score. Mahomes throws for 340 yards and three more touchdowns, hitting Hill, Hardman and Josh Gordon as he spreads the ball around. Gibson erupts for 130 yards and two scores. Heinicke throws for 300 yards and two TDs, one each to McLaurin and Ricky Seals-Jones. Kansas City 35-31

L.A. Rams at N.Y. Giants (+9.5), o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Rams got back on track last week, handling the Seahawks fairly easily and even surviving the Genossance after Russell Wilson got hurt. It's been the offense more than the defense leading the way, though, as the addition of Matthew Stafford has helped rehabilitate Sean McVay's reputation as boy genius. They're racked up more than 400 yards of offense in three consecutive games and haven't dipped below 371 yet this year, and Cooper Kupp has been all but unstoppable as Stafford's favorite target. The Giants, or at least what's left of them, don't figure to derail either of those trends. The sheer number of injuries to key players this roster is dealing with is mind-boggling, and even on the Giants' home turf it's fair to wonder why this spread isn't double digits given the XFL-caliber lineup they could be forced to trot out. Here's how bad things are for the offense: John Ross, who managed to suit up for only 27 games in his four seasons with the Bengals, might be their healthiest wide receiver. At least Kadarius Toney looked like the real deal last week, when he wasn't spraining his ankle or getting ejected for trying to punch a guy who was wearing a helmet.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: none

NYG injuries: RB Saquon Barkley (out, ankle), WR Kenny Golladay (out, knee), WR Toney (questionable, ankle), WR Darius Slayton (questionable, hamstring), LT Andrew Thomas (questionable, foot), LG Ben Bredeson (questionable, hand)

LAR DFS targets: Van Jefferson $3,400 DK / $5,400 FD (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

NYG DFS targets: Toney $5,600 DK / $6,000 FD (LAR 24th in DVOA vs. WR1)

LAR DFS fades: none

NYG DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAR are sixth in third-down conversions at 48.2 percent; NYG are 29th in third-down defense at 47.1 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, 11-12 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Darrell Henderson jets for 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Stafford throws for 320 yards and three TDs, finding Kupp (who tops 100 yards), Jefferson and Tyler Higbee. Devontae Booker leads the NYG backfield with 70 scrimmage yards. Jones throws for 220 yards and a score to Toney while running in a TD of his own, but he gets picked off twice. Rams 31-14

Houston (+9.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The stats and formula I use to determine a winner, margin of victory and "projected" (more like guesstimated, really) score generally come to a conclusion that's in the ballpark of the Vegas line once I look it up. Occasionally I'll have an underdog winning outright, but usually it'll be when the spread is a field goal or less — i.e. the difference is just one score either way. A nine-and-a-half-point 'dog, though? I genuinely can't recall the last time I've been that wildly out of sync with the books. I also can't figure out why the Colts are giving so many points. Sure, Houston only has one win, but so does Indy. Yeah, the Colts nearly beat the Ravens last week (or, from another perspective, they gave away a win they had in the bag), but the Texans followed the same script against the Patriots. Houston's point differential is worse, but mainly because it got blown out by the Bills, and who doesn't get blown out by the Bills these days? Neither defense has had much luck slowing down their opposition, in fact — the only team Indy's kept below 25 points was the banged-up, Tua-less Dolphins. Really, short of buying into the name value of guys like Carson Wentz and Jonathan Taylor (versus Davis Mills and the backfield committee of MarDavid-Phillip Inglindohnson for the other guys), this spread is a head-scratcher. Even the history between these division rivals suggests it'll be close no matter who wins. I'm fully expecting an Indy rout, because there has to be something I'm missing here, but the numbers say what they say, and that's another poor effort from the Colts.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: QB Tyrod Taylor (IR, hamstring), QB Deshaun Watson (out), WR Danny Amendola (questionable, thigh), WR Nico Collins (IR, shoulder), LT Laremy Tunsil (out, thumb), C Justin Britt (questionable, knee)

IND injuries: WR T.Y. Hilton (IR, neck), LG Quenton Nelson (IR, ankle), RT Braden Smith (out, foot), K Rodrigo Blankenship (out, hip), CB Xavier Rhodes (questionable, concussion)

HOU DFS targets: Mills $5,200 DK / $6,700 FD (IND 30th in passing DVOA, 29th in YPA allowed, 32nd in TD% allowed), Chris Conley $3,300 DK / $5,200 FD (IND 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

IND DFS targets: none

HOU DFS fades: Mark Ingram $4,200 DK / $5,300 FD and Phillip Lindsay $4,000 DK / $4,700 FD (IND second in rushing DVOA, t-1st in rushing TDs allowed) 

IND DFS fades: none

Key stat: IND is 32nd in red-zone conversions at 36.8 percent; HOU is 10th in red-zone defense at 52.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-4 IND including playoffs, average score 24-20 IND, average margin of victory six points. Only two of the last 15 meetings have been decided by more than a single score, while IND has won five of the last six, including a 21-7 victory in a Wild Card Game during the 2018 postseason

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: David Johnson leads the HOU backfield with 70 combined yards and a score, while Ingram punches in a short TD. Mills throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Conley and Jordan Akins. Taylor gains 90 yards and a TD. Wentz throws for 250 yards and scores to Mo Alie-Cox and Michael Pittman, but he also commits two costly turnovers. Texans 28-23

Cincinnati at Detroit (+3.5), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Given how competitive the AFC North is this year, the Bengals may well regret losing a winnable game at home against the Packers, but last week's Kickergeddon (Armakickon? Kicknarok? We're still workshopping it) hit both teams hard, and the bottom line was Aaron Rodgers gave his guy more chances to finally connect on a game-winning field goal than Joe Burrow did. Burrow's looked very sharp at times, but at others he's looked like a QB with less than a full season's worth of games under his belt (Sunday's start will be his 16th in the NFL). The pieces are in place in terms of the skill positions for Cincy to move into the upper echelon of offenses, but until the offensive line is reinforced (the Bengals are 29th in sack percentage allowed, which is probably making whoever put this together during draft season feel vindicated), Burrow's going to have some peaks and valleys. Of course, the guy some fans thought Cincy should take instead of Ja'Marr Chase, Penei Sewell, has been hurt for the Lions, so maybe they'd be no better off. Jared Goff certainly isn't — Detroit's still down two other starting offensive linemen, and he's running out of guys to throw to, or hand it off to, or just in general do something useful with the ball if they get it. The Lions are locked in a staring contest with the Jags to see who'll blink first and actually win a game, and even though the NFC North squad doesn't have the Urban Meyer factor working in its favor, I'm not sure Detroit isn't the favorite at this point for next year's first overall pick. They have a tougher schedule, with only a Week 16 game in Atlanta standing out as a danger spot, while Jacksonville will face Atlanta at home plus Houston at home, the Jets on the road and even a Week 8 tilt against a likely Russ-less Seattle squad. And, for all the talk of Dan Campbell having them play "hard" and whatnot, only three of their five losses so far have actually been within one score. When you're losing by 10 points to the Bears, you've got no claim on being scrappy.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: RB Joe Mixon (questionable, ankle), RB Samaje Perine (doubtful, COVID-19), RG Xavier Su-a-Filo (IR, knee), RG Jackson Carman (questionable, undisclosed), CB Trae Waynes (IR, hamstring)

DET injuries: RB D'Andre Swift (questionable, groin), RB Jamaal Williams (questionable, hip), WR Tyrell Williams (IR, concussion), WR Quintez Cephus (IR, collarbone), TE T.J. Hockenson (questionable, knee), LY Taylor Decker (IR, finger), C Frank Ragnow (IR, toe), OLB Trey Flowers (questionable, knee), CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (IR, thigh)

CIN DFS targets: C.J. Uzomah $3,100 DK / $5,300 FD (DET 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

DET DFS targets: none

CIN DFS fades: Tyler Boyd $5,400 DK / $6,300 FD (DET third in DVOA vs. WR3)

DET DFS fades: KhaDarel Hodge $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (CIN fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: CIN is third in red-zone conversions at 80.0 percent; DET is 30th in red-zone defense at 84.6 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Mixon gains 70 yards and a TD. Burrow throws for 310 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Uzomah, Chase and Chris Evans. Swift picks up 80 combined yards, while Williams adds 50. Goff throws for 230 yards and a score to Calvin Johnson Herman Moore Amon-Ra St. Brown. Bengals 31-16

Green Bay at Chicago (+4.5), o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

If you want an excuse to stick a Team of Destiny label on a squad, winning a road game in overtime despite its reliable veteran kicker missing 10 points worth of kicks is a good one. Of course, playing in an NFC North that lacks credible challengers doesn't hurt either. Aaron Rodgers has thrown multiple TDs in four consecutive games, with Davante Adams topping 120 receiving yards in three, and they haven't needed a whole lot else. Rodgers has also mostly owned the Bears, going 21-5 against them in his career, including the playoffs, and his last loss to Chicago came in Week 15 of 2018, a game in which Khalil Mack sacked him 2.5 times and Mitchell Trubisky tossed two TDs. Whatever happened to those guys? The Bears are 3-2 but head into this one down their top three running backs, so sixth-round pick Khalil Herbert will get a chance to shine, but with Justin Fields now the starting QB this isn't a particularly scary offense even when David Montgomery is healthy. As per usual, it'll come down to the defense, and while the unit has been good — tied for seventh in scoring at 20.0 points per game allowed — it may not be "slowing down Rodgers enough to eke out a win" good.

The Skinny

GB injuries: WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (IR, hamstring), LT David Bakhtiari (out, knee), LT Elgton Jenkins (questionable, ankle), OLB Za'Darius Smith (IR, ankle), CB Jaire Alexander (IR, shoulder), CB Kevin King (out, shoulder)

CHI injuries: RB Montgomery (IR, knee), RB Damien Williams (doubtful, COVID-19), RB Tarik Cohen (out, knee), WR Allen Robinson (questionable, ankle), RT Germain Ifedi (IR, knee), DT Akiem Hicks (questionable, groin), OLB Mack (questionable, foot), S Eddie Jackson (questionable, knee)

GB DFS targets: Adams $9,000 DK / $8,500 FD (CHI 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Packers DEF $3,600 DK / $4,200 FD (CHI t-30th in sacks allowed, 30th in points per game)

CHI DFS targets: none

GB DFS fades: none

CHI DFS fades: Marquise Goodwin $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (GB first in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: GB is 11th in third-down conversions at 42.9 percent; CHI is 23rd in third-down defense at 43.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-1 GB, average score 26-17 GB, average margin of victory 11 points. GB has won 10 of the last 11 meetings in Chicago

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, 10-11 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Aaron Jones gains 90 yards and a score. Rodgers throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, both to Adams. Herbert grinds out 60 yards. Fields throws for 210 yards and runs for 50 more, tossing a TD to Darnell Mooney. Packers 24-13

L.A. Chargers (+3) at Baltimore, o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Is the AFC West now Justin Herbert's division? Last week's performance against the Browns was utterly incredible — the 26 points the Chargers scored in the fourth quarter is more offense than 22 teams in the league manage on a per-game basis — and since their Week 2 stumble against the Cowboys, Herbert's posted an 11:0 TD:INT in winning three straight. It's ridiculously premature to write off Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, but the Bolts are already two games up with a head-to-head win in hand, and Brandon Staley has them playing like a team that isn't going to make the crucial mistakes that have haunted the franchise in the past, while guys like Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler are emerging as superstars. Of course, Herbert isn't the only QB in this game playing like an MVP. Lamar Jackson led his own stunning comeback last Monday, and he's on pace for the first 5,000/1,000 campaign (passing yards/rushing yards) in NFL history. Fun fact: there's never even been a 4,000/1,000 season. The Ravens' horrible injury luck in the backfield to begin the year has forced John Harbaugh to lean on his quarterback more than ever, and Jackson is more than rising to the occasion. While Los Angeles probably has the better all-around roster, Baltimore's on home turf and it's just as easy to concoct a brimming-with-confidence narrative for them as a letdown-after-emotional-win narrative. In the week's marquee (or dare I say Marquise?) matchup, whichever signal-caller gets the ball last might be the winner.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: WR Williams (questionable, knee), RG Oday Aboushi (IR, knee), RT Bryan Bulaga (IR, back), LB Kenneth Murray (IR, ankle), S Nasir Adderley (questionable, hip)

BAL injuries: WR Sammy Watkins (out, thigh), WR Rashod Bateman (IR, groin), LT Ronnie Stanley (out. ankle), LT Alejandro Villanueva (questionable, knee), LG Ben Cleveland (IR, knee), CB Marcus Peters (IR, knee), S DeShon Elliott (questionable, quadriceps)

LAC DFS targets: none

BAL DFS targets: Latavius Murray $5,700 DK / $5,800 FD (LAC 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed)

LAC DFS fades: none

BAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: BAL is t-8th in red-zone conversions at 68.8 percent; LAC are 19th in red-zone defense at 64.7 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, 14 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ekeler puts together 100 scrimmage yards and a TD. Herbert throws for 300 yards and two scores, finding Williams and Jared Cook. Murray leads the BAL backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown. Jackson throws for 270 yards and TDs to Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown while running for 70 yards and a score of his own. Ravens 28-27

Minnesota at Carolina (+1), o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Vikings are 2-3, but you could pick just about any record at random for them and it would be plausible. Their three losses are by a combined 11 points, and to three strong clubs (Cincy, Arizona and Cleveland), but then they nearly blew it last week against the winless Lions. Dalvin Cook looks like he's back at 100 percent health, which should help, but then again Minnesota's only two wins have been the games where Alexander Mattison started. Maybe if the team wins more often, Kirk Cousins and Mike Zimmer will figure out how to celebrate one. The Panthers have cooled down after their hot start, or rather, Sam Darnold has cooled down. The defense is still doing its thing, as only the Cowboys have put up more than 273 yards of offense or 21 points against them. Darnold tossed five picks the last two games, and it's probably not a coincidence he's suddenly back in the "have to do it all myself" mode he got used to with the Jets while Christian McCaffrey has been sidelined. CMac won't be back for this one, but I think Matt Rhule can calm down his QB and get him to at least stop coughing the ball up.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: none

CAR injuries: RB McCaffrey (out. hamstring), LG Pat Elflein (IR, hamstring), LB Shaq Thompson (out, foot), CB Jaycee Horn (IR, foot), CB Stephon Gilmore (out, quadriceps), CB C.J. Henderson (questionable, shoulder)

MIN DFS targets: Justin Jefferson $8,000 DK / $7,900 FD (CAR 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)

CAR DFS targets: none

MIN DFS fades: Kirk Cousins $6,200 DK / $7,100 FD (CAR first in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed), Adam Thielen $5,800 DK / $7,200 FD (CAR first in DVOA vs. WR2), Tyler Conklin $3,200 DK / $5,100 FD (CAR fifth in DVOA vs. TE) 

CAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIN is 19th in third-down conversions at 39.1 percent; CAR is first in third-down defense at 25.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Cook racks up 110 scrimmage yards. Cousins throws for 240 yards and a TD to Jefferson. Chuba Hubbard picks up 80 yards and a score. Darnold throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Robby Anderson. Panthers 17-16

Arizona (+3) at Cleveland, o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

It's the end of an era. When the 2021 season began, we had both the Darnold-Arnold and Hurts-Ertz quarterback-tight end connections to riff on. Now, six weeks into the season, both tight ends have been traded, with Ertz joining the Cardinals to replace Maxx Williams. Having already played Thursday for the Eagles, he might become the first player in NFL history to suit up for 18 regular-season games in a year. Williams' injury is about the only thing that's gone wrong for Arizona. The league's last undefeated team had its first offensive stumble last week, with Kyler Murray leading the Cards to fewer than 31 points and 400 yards for the first time this season, but the defense responded by holding Trey Lance and the Niners to 10 points, so it didn't matter. Don't expect Murray to be stifled two weeks in a row — he's completed more than 75 percent of his passes (first in the NFL) with a 9.2 YPA (third). The Browns, on the other hand, might still be trying to figure out what happened to them last Sunday. Forty-two points against the Chargers wasn't enough as the Cleveland defense seemed helpless to stop Justin Herbert in the fourth quarter, and now they have to tangle with Murray. They'll also have to do it without Nick Chubb, and while Kareem Hunt is certainly capable of handling a full load as the starter, he's not 100 percent healthy either. It might mean Baker Mayfield has to do a lot more than usual, an approach that might be a little more effective if Odell Beckham could get going. Against the Bolts, Mayfield had to rely on his tight ends and guys like Donovan Peoples-Jones to produce his second 300-yard passing game of the season. If Beckham can't wake up, the Browns simply might not have enough threats to keep up.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: RB Chase Edmonds (questionable, shoulder), TE Williams (IR, knee), C Rodney Hudson (out, ribs), RT Kelvin Beachum (questionable, ribs), RT Justin Murray (IR, back), OLB Chandler Jones (doubtful, COVID-19), LB Jordan Hicks (questionable, toe), CB Byron Murphy (questionable, ribs)

CLE injuries: RB Nick Chubb (out, calf), RB Kareem Hunt (questionable, wrist), WR Jarvis Landry (IR, knee), LT Jedrick Wills (questionable, ankle), C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), RT Jack Conklin (questionable, knee), DE Myles Garrett (questionable, knee), DE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, knee), CB Denzel Ward (questionable, neck), CB Greg Newsome (questionable, calf)

ARI DFS targets: none

CLE DFS targets: Hunt $6,200 DK / $7,400 FD (ARI 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPC allowed)

ARI DFS fades: Edmonds $5,600 DK / $5,900 FD and James Conner $5,500 DK / $6,100 FD (CLE second in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed)

CLE DFS fades: Austin Hooper $2,800 DK / $4,700 FD and David Njoku $3,700 DK / $5,100 FD (ARI first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: ARI is fifth in red-zone conversions at 71.4 percent; CLE is 27th in red-zone defense at 76.9 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, 16-17 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: James Conner leads the ARI backfield with 50 yards, while Edmonds adds 40. Murray throws for 320 yards and three TDs, finding DeAndre Hopkins (who tops 100 yards) twice and A.J. Green once, and he also runs in a score of his own. Hunt plays and produces 80 yards. Mayfield throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Beckham and Rashard Higgins. Cardinals 28-20

Las Vegas (+3.5) at Denver, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

I don't have much to add to the Jon Gruden thing, except to point out that this is a team that still sees fit to employ Richie Incognito, so the idea that Gruden was just a bad apple in the organization is kind of laughable. The Raiders' sudden loss of their head coach does give Rich Bisaccia his first head coaching gig after two decades as a special teams coordinator, even if only on an interim basis, but it also makes predicting what the team is going to do on the field this week basically impossible. Derek Carr's early MVP buzz has already worn off and then some, but the team is still 3-2 and could be in the playoff picture in a couple months if it can keep it together. Of course, so are the Broncos, and unlike their AFC West rivals they had a relatively calm week of prep. Teddy Bridgewater couldn't quite steal a win in Pittsburgh after shaking off his Week 4 concussion, but Denver's formula under Vic Fangio seems pretty clear — play tough defense, and try to squeeze enough points out of the offense to make it work. That'll become a lot easier when the receiving corps gets healthier, or if Javonte Williams breaks out though.

The Skinny

LV injuries: LG Incognito (IR, calf), CB Trayvon Mullen (IR, toe), CB Damon Arnette (IR, groin)

DEN injuries: RB Melvin Gordon (questionable, hip), WR Jerry Jeudy (IR, ankle), OLB Bradley Chubb (IR, ankle), CB Kareem Jackson (questionable, back) 

LV DFS targets: Henry Ruggs $5,200 DK / $5,500 FD (DEN 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)

DEN DFS targets: Noah Fant $4,800 DK / $5,800 FD (LV 25th in DVOA vs. TE)

LV DFS fades: none

DEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: LV is 23rd in red-zone conversions at 58.8 percent; DEN is t-7th in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 LV, average score 22-18 LV, average margin of victory nine points. LV have won four of the last five meetings, while three of the last six have been decided by a single point

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Josh Jacobs leads the LV backfield with 70 yards. Carr throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Ruggs. Williams leads the DEN backfield with 80 combined yards and a score, while Gordon adds 60 yards. Bridgewater throws for 260 yards and TDs to Fant and Tim Patrick. Broncos 27-13 

Dallas at New England (+3.5), o/u 51.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

It's really easy to get sucked into Cowboys hype, but man do they look good. Shut them down through the air, and Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard do their Nick Chubb-Kareem Hunt impression. Sell out to stop the run, and Dak Prescott picks you apart. Meanwhile, Dan Quinn has done an incredible job turning around one of 2020's worst defenses, and the aggressiveness the unit lacked a couple years ago under Rod Marinelli's "bend, then bend some more, then keep bending" scheme is suddenly its hallmark as Trevon Diggs sets records and Micah Parsons flies all over the field. Gillette Stadium has typically been a place where hot streaks went to die, but this version of the Patriots may not be equipped for this kind of game. There's no one clear best player for Bill Belichick to focus on, and while Mac Jones has had his moments, he also has a 4:5 TD:INT over the last three weeks and may not be ready to mount any big comebacks if one becomes necessary. The Pats, or Belichick, will never use the word "rebuild," and at 2-3 it's not like the season is lost right out of the gate, but seeing a path to victory requires viewing both teams through the lens of who they were, rather than who they look like now.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: RB Ezekiel Elliott (questionable, ribs), WR Michael Gallup (IR, calf), LT Tyron Smith (questionable, neck), RT La'el Collins (out, suspension), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), DE Randy Gregory (questionable, knee), CB Trevon Diggs (questionable, ankle), S Donovan Wilson (questionable, groin), S Damontae Kazee (questionable, hip)

NE injuries: RB Damien Harris (questionable, ribs), LT Isaiah Wynn (out, COVID-19), RG Shaq Mason (out, abdomen), RT Trent Brown (IR, calf), RT Justin Herron (questionable, abdomen), K Nick Folk (questionable, knee), LB Kyle Van Noy (questionable, groin), CB Jalen Mills (questionable, hamstring)

DAL DFS targets: Elliott $7,100 DK / $8,300 FD and Tony Pollard $5,600 DK / $6,000 FD (NE 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

NE DFS targets: Hunter Henry $3,900 DK / $5,600 FD and Jonnu Smith $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD (DAL 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

DAL DFS fades: CeeDee Lamb $6,500 DK / $7,000 FD (NE third in DVOA vs. WR1)

NE DFS fades: Jakobi Meyers $5,500 DK / $5,800 FD (DAL first in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: DAL is second in third-down conversions at 51.6 percent; NE is 20th in third-down defense at 42.9 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Elliott rings up 90 yards and a TD, while Pollard adds 60 yards and a score. Prescott throws for 250 yards and a TD to Amari Cooper. Harris plays and leads the NE backfield with 60 yards. Jones throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, finding Jonnu and N'Keal Harry, but he also gets picked off twice. Cowboys 27-17

Seattle (+5) at Pittsburgh, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

We are about to find out just how Most Valuable Russell Wilson has been all those years. While it's fun to root for a big Geno Smith revival while Wilson is on IR, the 2013 second-round pick hasn't started a game since 2017 (Giants fans might have a vague memory of that one) and has a sub-60 percent completion rate for his career. Without Russ, what do the Seahawks actually have going for them? Yes, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are among the elite WR duos in the league ... when Wilson is on the other end of their passes. How will they look with Smith at the helm? There really isn't anything else about the Seattle roster that stands out — Bobby Wagner is still automatic, but he doesn't have a lot of help on the defensive end. They're also already three games back of the Cardinals in the NFC West, so the Seahawks' season could be just about over by the time Wilson is back. At least he is coming back. The good version of Ben Roethlisberger is gone forever, and even the adequate version is showing up less and less frequently. Fortunately, they may not need him this week as on paper this is a good spot for Najee Harris to carry the load, but the Steelers are also in the cellar in their division and staring up at three very good teams. Maybe sometime in the second half, Dwayne Haskins will get his own Geno-replacing-Eli moment once Mike Tomlin resigns himself to the inevitable, but until then this looks like a team built to tread water.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: QB Wilson (IR, finger), RB Chris Carson (IR, neck), WR Dee Eskridge (IR, concussion)

PIT injuries: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (out, shoulder), RT Zach Banner (IR, knee), DE Stephon Tuitt (IR, undisclosed)

SEA DFS targets: none

PIT DFS targets: Harris $7,400 DK / $8,500 FD (SEA 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Chase Claypool $6,600 DK / $6,700 FD (SEA 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

SEA DFS fades: none

PIT DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA, with Wilson under center, is fourth in red-zone conversions at 76.9 percent; PIT is fifth in red-zone defense at 43.8 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Alex Collins leads the SEA backfield with 50 yards. Smith throws for 260 yards and TDs to Metcalf and Penny Hart but gets picked off twice, one of which Devin Bush returns to the house. Harris erupts for 130 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Roethlisberger game-manages his way to 220 yards. Steelers 24-14

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (+7), o/u 52.5
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

In 2007, when he was a mere pup at 30 years old, Tom Brady put together the lone 50-TD season on his resume. Now that's he's finally grown up, the 44-year-old appears intent on matching or even topping that figure — he's averaging three touchdown passes a game through five weeks, and with the 17th game this year, that puts him on pace for 51. (I mean, you go tell him he can't do it). He's already lit up the Cowboys, Falcons and Dolphins for at least four, and the Eagles' secondary only compares favorably to one of those units, so this could be another big night for Tampa's aerial attack, even if Rob Gronkowski still isn't healthy. The question will be whether Philly can make a show of keeping pace. The Bucs' own secondary is in rough shape, so while Jalen Hurts has been erratic in his brief career, he is at least capable of putting up strong numbers. He might not be so easy to keep in the pocket, either. While the champs' stifling run defense has extended to opposition QBs — they've given up only 13 rushing yards to quarterbacks; that's total, not per game — they also haven't really faced much of a rushing threat from the position (Dak Prescott was arguably the most dangerous runner any opponent has thrown at them, and he was playing his first game back from last year's season-ending ankle injury). They also likely won't have Lavonte David patrolling the middle of the field, and while Devin White can handle any spying assignments, not having both elite linebackers in the lineup could give Hurts some openings to scramble. Of course, an Eagles offensive line once again missing multiple starters already gives the young QB plenty of incentive to run for his life.

The Skinny

TB injuries: QB Brady (thumb, questionable), WR Chris Godwin (questionable, knee), TE Gronkwoski (questionable, ribs), C Ryan Jensen (questionable, hip), OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (questionable, shoulder), LB David (doubtful, ankle), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (IR, elbow), S Antoine Winfield (questionable, concussion)

PHI injuries: TE Dallas Goedert (doubtful, COVID-19), RG Brandon Brooks (IR, pectoral), RT Lane Johnson (questionable, personal), DE Derek Barnett (questionable, ankle)

TB DFS targets: Mike Evans $10,200 DK / $13,500 FD (PHI 23rd in DVOA vs. WR1)

PHI DFS targets: Jalen Hurts $11,800 DK / $15,500 FD (TB 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 23rd in TD% allowed)

TB DFS fades: none

PHI DFS fades: Miles Sanders $6,600 DK / $10,000 FD and Kenneth Gainwell $2,400 DK / $8,500 FD (TB third in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed, t-1st in rushing TDs allowed)

Key stat: TB is t-4th in third-down conversions at 48.5 percent; PHI is 25th in third-down defense at 44.6 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Leonard Fournette picks up 80 combined yards. Brady throws for 330 yards and three TDs, hitting Evans (who tops 100 yards) twice and Antonio Brown once. Sanders leads the PHI backfield with 40 yards. Hurts rises to the occasion, throwing for 290 yards and touchdowns to Zach Ertz and DeVonta Smith while running for 50 yards and a score of his own, but it's not enough. Buccaneers 30-27

Last week's record: 12-4, 9-6-1 ATS, 7-9 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 54-26, 42-37-1 ATS, 39-41 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1168-698-6, 901-904-67 ATS, 649-685-26 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)