The Z Files: Stealing Points

The Z Files: Stealing Points

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

While the record-setting home run pace continues to dominate the headlines, the dearth of steals is just as relevant with respect to fantasy baseball. Due to the stolen base category being more tightly bunched, it doesn't require as many bags to gain rotisserie points. In addition, the top teams are likely within range, whereas in previous years they were so far ahead it wasn't an efficient use of resources to try and chase them down.

Of course, the caveat is there are fewer sources of stolen bases, especially those capable of making a significant difference. In addition, with more runs scored via the long ball, homers have even more of an influence on the runs and RBI category.

As always, it comes down to your team's position in each category and balancing the points available in steals versus those possibly lost chasing them. Today, we're going to present information to assist in your approach towards steals for the remainder of the season.

Team Tendencies

Based on research I conducted a few years ago for our friends at BaseballHQ, teams tend to attempt steals in accordance with their success rate. That is, teams with a high success rate run more, while those getting caught often decrease the frequency of their attempts. The correlation isn't usually overwhelming, but it's sufficient to help find teams to target and avoid. That said, with the paucity of pilfers this season, the data is even more variable since one player can have an even greater impact.

While the record-setting home run pace continues to dominate the headlines, the dearth of steals is just as relevant with respect to fantasy baseball. Due to the stolen base category being more tightly bunched, it doesn't require as many bags to gain rotisserie points. In addition, the top teams are likely within range, whereas in previous years they were so far ahead it wasn't an efficient use of resources to try and chase them down.

Of course, the caveat is there are fewer sources of stolen bases, especially those capable of making a significant difference. In addition, with more runs scored via the long ball, homers have even more of an influence on the runs and RBI category.

As always, it comes down to your team's position in each category and balancing the points available in steals versus those possibly lost chasing them. Today, we're going to present information to assist in your approach towards steals for the remainder of the season.

Team Tendencies

Based on research I conducted a few years ago for our friends at BaseballHQ, teams tend to attempt steals in accordance with their success rate. That is, teams with a high success rate run more, while those getting caught often decrease the frequency of their attempts. The correlation isn't usually overwhelming, but it's sufficient to help find teams to target and avoid. That said, with the paucity of pilfers this season, the data is even more variable since one player can have an even greater impact. Still, it's worth looking at, so here's what each club did through its first 81 games and since.

                    First half     Second Half
TEAM

SB

CS

SB%

SB

CS

SB%

Games

ARI

44

6

88.0%

10

0

100.0%

16

STL

56

11

83.6%

4

6

40.0%

14

MIL

50

11

82.0%

15

6

71.4%

17

LAD

29

7

80.6%

4

0

100.0%

18

PIT

31

9

77.5%

3

4

42.9%

14

SEA

55

16

77.5%

12

9

57.1%

18

KC

78

23

77.2%

13

5

72.2%

17

WSH

47

14

77.0%

15

5

75.0%

14

NYY

32

10

76.2%

3

5

37.5%

14

TEX

65

21

75.6%

12

5

70.6%

15

CLE

57

19

75.0%

8

3

72.7%

14

SD

42

14

75.0%

4

1

80.0%

15

BOS

46

16

74.2%

6

1

85.7%

16

DET

34

12

73.9%

4

0

100.0%

12

NYM

34

12

73.9%

3

4

42.9%

15

LAA

31

11

73.8%

7

2

77.8%

17

BAL

42

15

73.7%

2

4

33.3%

14

TOR

23

9

71.9%

7

0

100.0%

17

TB

46

19

70.8%

16

2

88.9%

18

PHI

28

12

70.0%

11

3

78.6%

16

CWS

42

19

68.9%

2

1

66.7%

12

OAK

27

13

67.5%

4

2

66.7%

17

ATL

29

15

65.9%

14

1

93.3%

17

CIN

39

21

65.0%

4

2

66.7%

13

HOU

37

20

64.9%

9

0

100.0%

17

MIA

24

14

63.2%

4

1

80.0%

13

SF

24

14

63.2%

2

4

33.3%

16

CHC

24

16

60.0%

1

0

100.0%

15

MIN

19

13

59.4%

5

3

62.5%

14

COL

28

20

58.3%

6

1

85.7%

15

At least so far, there are four teams running less than expected after passing their halfway point of the season:

The Cardinals were one of the most active, and successful squads to begin the season. However they've hardly run lately and when they have, they're getting nabbed. Kolten Wong leads the Redbirds with 14 steals, followed by Marcell Ozuna with eight. Their steals are spread out throughout the whole team and if they continue to put the kibosh on running, they're not a good club to target for help.

Normally, a team with an 80.6 percent success rate like the Dodgers would run more, but they have no trouble scoring runs and likely prefer not to risk injury. Maybe this explains why Cody Bellinger hasn't attempted a steal since June 15.

The Pirates ran the least of any of the teams with a success rate over 77 percent, so it's not surprising they're not running much. Not to mention, when they have run lately, they've been thrown out on four of seven attempts. Starling Marte is the Bucs primary source and he's only 1-for-2 in July. Leadoff hitter Kevin Newman displayed some stolen base acumen as a prospect but is a pedestrian 6-for-9 overall, with a 1-for-1 mark in July.

Much like the Dodgers, the Yankees have little reason to risk injury on the basepaths, perhaps the reason their attempts have waned. Plus, they're only 3-for-8 since the halfway point.

Note three of the above teams are not only running less, but they're under .500 when they do take off.

Catcher Efficiency

Those playing in leagues with daily or bi-weekly moves should always take advantage of weak-throwing catchers. Of course, sometimes a backstop's inefficiency is on the pitcher -- we'll get to that in a bit. Here are the stats for all catchers with at least 10 attempts at thwarting thievery:

NameTeamSBCSSB%
Taylor DavisCHC

11

0

100.0%

Bobby WilsonDET

10

1

90.9%

Jeff MathisTEX

39

4

90.7%

Andrew KnappPHI

9

1

90.0%

Tomas NidoNYM

17

2

89.5%

Brian McCannATL

31

4

88.6%

Francisco MejiaSDP

14

2

87.5%

Wilson RamosNYM

62

9

87.3%

Kurt SuzukiWSN

20

3

87.0%

Chance SiscoBAL

20

3

87.0%

Jason CastroMIN

19

3

86.4%

Victor CaratiniCHC

12

2

85.7%

Max StassiHOU

17

3

85.0%

Kevan SmithLAA

11

2

84.6%

Stephen VogtSFG

15

3

83.3%

Chris IannettaCOL

15

3

83.3%

Russell MartinLAD

14

3

82.4%

Willians AstudilloMIN

9

2

81.8%

Sandy LeonBOS

13

3

81.3%

Omar NarvaezSEA

38

9

80.9%

Cam GallagherKCR

16

4

80.0%

Welington CastilloCHW

19

5

79.2%

Tucker BarnhartCIN

19

5

79.2%

Robinson ChirinosHOU

34

9

79.1%

Gary SanchezNYY

26

7

78.8%

Nick HundleyOAK

18

5

78.3%

Curt CasaliCIN

25

7

78.1%

Austin RomineNYY

14

4

77.8%

Kyle HigashiokaNYY

10

3

76.9%

Bryan HoladayMIA

10

3

76.9%

Michael PerezTBR

10

3

76.9%

Tyler FlowersATL

23

7

76.7%

Kevin PlaweckiCLE

12

4

75.0%

Austin BarnesLAD

15

5

75.0%

Buster PoseySFG

36

13

73.5%

Jonathan LucroyLAA

41

15

73.2%

Erik KratzSFG/TBR/NYY

8

3

72.7%

Francisco CervelliPIT

15

6

71.4%

Grayson GreinerDET

27

11

71.1%

Isiah Kiner-FalefaTEX

12

5

70.6%

Elias DiazPIT

26

11

70.3%

Yasmani GrandalMIL

40

17

70.2%

Josh PhegleyOAK

41

18

69.5%

Willson ContrerasCHC

25

11

69.4%

Tom MurphySEA

11

5

68.8%

John HicksDET

26

12

68.4%

Martin MaldonadoKC/CHC

19

9

67.9%

Dustin GarneauLAA

8

4

66.7%

Travis d'ArnaudNYM/TBR

16

8

66.7%

Roberto PerezCLE

25

13

65.8%

Danny JansenTOR

25

13

65.8%

Pedro SeverinoBAL

19

10

65.5%

Yadier MolinaSTL

13

7

65.0%

Mitch GarverMIN

11

6

64.7%

Manny PinaMIL

9

5

64.3%

Yan GomesWSN

23

13

63.9%

Christian VazquezBOS

23

13

63.9%

Tony WoltersCOL

23

13

63.9%

Jorge AlfaroMIA

17

10

63.0%

Carson KellyARI

17

10

63.0%

James McCannCHW

24

15

61.5%

Mike ZuninoTBR

17

11

60.7%

Austin HedgesSDP

15

10

60.0%

Luke MaileTOR

14

12

53.8%

J.T. RealmutoPHI

31

27

53.4%

Matt WietersSTL

5

5

50.0%

The interesting scenarios are teams with one strong-armed receiver and one who's easier to run against, as it's misleading to look at the team ranking since it will split the difference. For example, Jason Castro has only foiled three runners in 22 tries, while Twins teammate Mitch Garver has corralled a more palatable 6-of-17. The Cubs were in this boat until they acquired Martin Maldonado. In fact, a combined 2-for-22 from their backups may have led to dealing for Maldonado, especially with Willson Contreras sidelined. The Red Sox are another club with one good and one bad, though that may have more to do with who each handle as Sandy Leon sports a poor rate primarily working with Chris Sale, while Christian Vazquez is one of the harder receivers to run on.

Speaking of Maldonado, if you're in the habit of not deploying basestealers against the Royals, note new catcher Cam Gallagher is an easier target.

Pitcher Efficiency

Even the best catchers need some help from their pitcher. That said, there are several pitchers who prefer to focus on the batter, hanging their battery-mate out to dry. Jon Lester's aversion to throwing to first is legendary. Others such as Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom don't quicken their delivery with a runner on, confident in their ability to retire the hitter. Here is the rundown of successful steals so far this season against pitchers throwing at least 50 innings.

Pitcher

IP

SB

SB/IP

Drew Smyly

51.1

10

0.19

Noah Syndergaard

112.2

19

0.17

Yu Darvish

109

18

0.17

Kevin Gausman

62.1

9

0.14

Trevor Cahill

70

10

0.14

Jacob deGrom

115

16

0.14

Jordan Zimmermann

52.2

7

0.13

Spencer Turnbull

98.2

13

0.13

Nick Margevicius

53.1

6

0.11

Daniel Norris

96.1

10

0.10

Chase Anderson

77.1

8

0.10

Junior Guerra

51

5

0.10

Tyler Beede

51.1

5

0.10

Drew Pomeranz

72.1

7

0.10

Jeff Samardzija

105.1

10

0.09

Julio Teheran

106.2

10

0.09

Aaron Sanchez

102

9

0.09

Mike Fiers

114.2

10

0.09

Sonny Gray

103.1

9

0.09

Reynaldo Lopez

104

9

0.09

James Paxton

82.1

7

0.09

Jason Vargas

82.2

7

0.08

Blake Snell

95

8

0.08

Sandy Alcantara

107.1

9

0.08

Steven Brault

60.2

5

0.08

Steven Matz

85

7

0.08

Jose Berrios

122

10

0.08

Jake Arrieta

113

9

0.08

Madison Bumgarner

116.2

9

0.08

Dylan Bundy

92

7

0.08

Nick Kingham

52.2

4

0.08

Zach Eflin

106

8

0.08

Ryne Stanek

53.2

4

0.07

Brett Anderson

109.1

8

0.07

CC Sabathia

82

6

0.07

Ivan Nova

110.2

8

0.07

Aaron Brooks

55.2

4

0.07

Chris Bassitt

83.2

6

0.07

Chris Sale

111.2

8

0.07

Jakob Junis

113.1

8

0.07

Felix Pena

86

6

0.07

Brandon Woodruff

114.2

8

0.07

Yusei Kikuchi

102.1

7

0.07

Stephen Strasburg

122.1

8

0.07

Dereck Rodriguez

61.1

4

0.07

Anthony DeSclafani

92.1

6

0.06

Marcus Stroman

110.2

7

0.06

Mike Soroka

96.1

6

0.06

Matt Strahm

80.2

5

0.06

Gerrit Cole

129.2

8

0.06

Framber Valdez

50

3

0.06

Robbie Ray

117

7

0.06

Derek Holland

67

4

0.06

Bryan Shaw

50.1

3

0.06

Martin Perez

101

6

0.06

Brad Peacock

85

5

0.06

Patrick Corbin

119.1

7

0.06

Jon Gray

120.1

7

0.06

Mike Minor

122

7

0.06

Rich Hill

53

3

0.06

Matt Harvey

53.2

3

0.06

Anibal Sanchez

89.2

5

0.06

Chris Archer

90.2

5

0.06

Collin McHugh

55

3

0.05

Jorge Lopez

75.2

4

0.05

Michael Wacha

76.1

4

0.05

Jerad Eickhoff

58.1

3

0.05

Trevor Bauer

138

7

0.05

Michael Pineda

98.2

5

0.05

Mike Foltynewicz

59.1

3

0.05

Shane Bieber

118.2

6

0.05

Marco Gonzales

120.2

6

0.05

Jon Lester

101

5

0.05

Jhoulys Chacin

83.1

4

0.05

Rick Porcello

105.2

5

0.05

Justin Verlander

132.2

6

0.05

Antonio Senzatela

91.2

4

0.04

Nick Pivetta

69

3

0.04

Wade LeBlanc

71.2

3

0.04

Kyle Gibson

98.1

4

0.04

Lance Lynn

128

5

0.04

Max Fried

103.2

4

0.04

Yonny Chirinos

107

4

0.04

Tommy Milone

54.2

2

0.04

Luis Castillo

112

4

0.04

Mike Leake

115.1

4

0.03

Aaron Nola

116.2

4

0.03

Zack Wheeler

119

4

0.03

Vince Velasquez

61

2

0.03

Gabriel Ynoa

61.1

2

0.03

Sam Gaviglio

63.1

2

0.03

Freddy Peralta

63.2

2

0.03

Homer Bailey

96

3

0.03

Max Scherzer

129.1

4

0.03

Tanner Roark

97

3

0.03

Tyler Mahle

97

3

0.03

Jalen Beeks

64.2

2

0.03

German Marquez

130

4

0.03

Carlos Carrasco

65

2

0.03

Griffin Canning

66.1

2

0.03

Cole Hamels

99.2

3

0.03

David Hess

68

2

0.03

Zach Davies

102.2

3

0.03

Jesse Chavez

68.2

2

0.03

Kenta Maeda

103.1

3

0.03

Trevor Richards

104

3

0.03

Ariel Jurado

70

2

0.03

Jose Quintana

107

3

0.03

Walker Buehler

110

3

0.03

Jordan Lyles

75

2

0.03

Matthew Boyd

114

3

0.03

Eduardo Rodriguez

116

3

0.03

Caleb Smith

78

2

0.03

Tyler Skaggs

79.2

2

0.03

Frankie Montas

90

2

0.02

Eric Lauer

91.1

2

0.02

Adam Wainwright

94.2

2

0.02

J.A. Happ

95

2

0.02

Trent Thornton

96

2

0.02

Adrian Sampson

97

2

0.02

Dakota Hudson

98.1

2

0.02

Joey Lucchesi

101

2

0.02

Kyle Hendricks

101.1

2

0.02

Joe Musgrove

104.1

2

0.02

Yusmeiro Petit

52.2

1

0.02

Lucas Giolito

106

2

0.02

Wade Miley

108.1

2

0.02

Miles Mikolas

108.1

2

0.02

Masahiro Tanaka

111

2

0.02

Julio Urias

56

1

0.02

Charlie Morton

118.2

2

0.02

Kyle Freeland

63.1

1

0.02

Shaun Anderson

64.2

1

0.02

Ross Stripling

66.2

1

0.01

Ryan Yarbrough

69.2

1

0.01

Glenn Sparkman

73.1

1

0.01

Trevor Williams

76.2

1

0.01

David Price

88.1

1

0.01

Jake Odorizzi

94

1

0.01

Andrew Cashner

101.1

1

0.01

Clayton Kershaw

105

1

0.01

Hyun-Jin Ryu

116

1

0.01

Brad Keller

118.2

1

0.01

Zack Greinke

128

1

0.01

Chris Stratton

50

0

0.00

Josh Tomlin

51

0

0.00

Chad Bettis

51.2

0

0.00

Liam Hendriks

52

0

0.00

Luke Weaver

62.1

0

0.00

Zack Godley

68.2

0

0.00

Jose Urena

74.2

0

0.00

Pablo Lopez

76.2

0

0.00

Domingo German

82

0

0.00

Danny Duffy

83.2

0

0.00

John Means

88.2

0

0.00

Chris Paddack

90

0

0.00

Jack Flaherty

104

0

0.00

Merrill Kelly

110

0

0.00

As useful as it is to target the names at the top of the list, it may be even more helpful to avoid those at the bottom, since there's often an opportunity cost to streaming a stolen-base candidate. That is, unless you're filling an open roster spot on a Monday or Thursday, you're probably leaving a hitter on the bench who would be capable of fortifying other categories.

Monthly Leaders

It helps to have a feel for what to expect, so here's a review of the monthly stolen base leaders:

AprilMayJuneJuly
Tim Anderson 10Adalberto Mondesi 12Trea Turner 9Christian Yelich 5
Jose Ramirez 9Jarrod Dyson 9Christian Yelich 8Ronald Acuna Jr. 5
Mallex Smith 8Kevin Kiermaier 7Mallex Smith 7Mallex Smith 5
Dee Gordon 8Mallex Smith 6Adalberto Mondesi 7Elvis Andrus 5
Billy Hamilton 8Starling Marte 6Jarrod Dyson 7Victor Robles 4
Adalberto Mondesi 8Mookie Betts 5Yasiel Puig 6Niko Goodrum 4
Victor Robles 7Andrew Benintendi 5Ronald Acuna Jr. 6Whit Merrifield 4
Delino DeShields Jr. 7Ronald Acuna Jr. 5Francisco Lindor 6Adalberto Mondesi 4
Christian Yelich 6Francisco Lindor 5Terrance Gore 6Keston Hiura 4
Trevor Story 6Jose Ramirez 5Elvis Andrus 6Ramon Laureano 3
Tommy Pham 6Cameron Maybin 5Kolten Wong 6Tommy Pham 3
Elvis Andrus 6Miguel Rojas 5Fernando Tatis Jr. 6Kevin Kiermaier 3
Jonathan Villar 6Jonathan Villar 5Lorenzo Cain 5Joey Wendle 3
Byron Buxton 6Manuel Margot 5Ramon Laureano 5Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 3
Fernando Tatis Jr. 6Nick Senzel 5Billy Hamilton 5Andrelton Simmons 3
  Amed Rosario 5Byron Buxton 3
  Jonathan Villar 5 

More relevant than the actual names is that the top guys are likely to poach high teens over the rest of the season. When doing the category math, keep in mind we're about 60 percent through the season, so a five-steal gap is really seven, assuming both teams keep on the current pace. Obviously, teams may not stay on the same pace due to injury, trades etc., but the main point is your target to make up points needs to account for the teams ahead of you continuing to amass stats.

Good luck trying to steal your way to a fantasy championship.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
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