The Z Files: Stealing Points

While the record-setting home run pace continues to dominate the headlines, the dearth of steals is just as relevant with respect to fantasy baseball. Due to the stolen base category being more tightly bunched, it doesn't require as many bags to gain rotisserie points. In addition, the top teams are likely within range, whereas in previous years they were so far ahead it wasn't an efficient use of resources to try and chase them down.

Of course, the caveat is there are fewer sources of stolen bases, especially those capable of making a significant difference. In addition, with more runs scored via the long ball, homers have even more of an influence on the runs and RBI category.

As always, it comes down to your team's position in each category and balancing the points available in steals versus those possibly lost chasing them. Today, we're going to present information to assist in your approach towards steals for the remainder of the season.

Team Tendencies

Based on research I conducted a few years ago for our friends at BaseballHQ, teams tend to attempt steals in accordance with their success rate. That is, teams with a high success rate run more, while those getting caught often decrease the frequency of their attempts. The correlation isn't usually overwhelming, but it's sufficient to help find teams to target and avoid. That said, with the paucity of pilfers this season, the data is even more variable since one player can have an even greater impact. Still, it's worth looking at, so here's what each club did through its first 81 games and since.

At least so far, there are four teams running less than expected after passing their halfway point of the season:

The Cardinals were one of the most active, and successful squads to begin the season. However they've hardly run lately and when they have, they're getting nabbed. Kolten Wong leads the Redbirds with 14 steals, followed by Marcell Ozuna with eight. Their steals are spread out throughout the whole team and if they continue to put the kibosh on running, they're not a good club to target for help.

Normally, a team with an 80.6 percent success rate like the Dodgers would run more, but they have no trouble scoring runs and likely prefer not to risk injury. Maybe this explains why Cody Bellinger hasn't attempted a steal since June 15.

The Pirates ran the least of any of the teams with a success rate over 77 percent, so it's not surprising they're not running much. Not to mention, when they have run lately, they've been thrown out on four of seven attempts. Starling Marte is the Bucs primary source and he's only 1-for-2 in July. Leadoff hitter Kevin Newman displayed some stolen base acumen as a prospect but is a pedestrian 6-for-9 overall, with a 1-for-1 mark in July.

Much like the Dodgers, the Yankees have little reason to risk injury on the basepaths, perhaps the reason their attempts have waned. Plus, they're only 3-for-8 since the halfway point.

Note three of the above teams are not only running less, but they're under .500 when they do take off.

Catcher Efficiency

Those playing in leagues with daily or bi-weekly moves should always take advantage of weak-throwing catchers. Of course, sometimes a backstop's inefficiency is on the pitcher -- we'll get to that in a bit. Here are the stats for all catchers with at least 10 attempts at thwarting thievery:

The interesting scenarios are teams with one strong-armed receiver and one who's easier to run against, as it's misleading to look at the team ranking since it will split the difference. For example, Jason Castro has only foiled three runners in 22 tries, while Twins teammate Mitch Garver has corralled a more palatable 6-of-17. The Cubs were in this boat until they acquired Martin Maldonado. In fact, a combined 2-for-22 from their backups may have led to dealing for Maldonado, especially with Willson Contreras sidelined. The Red Sox are another club with one good and one bad, though that may have more to do with who each handle as Sandy Leon sports a poor rate primarily working with Chris Sale, while Christian Vazquez is one of the harder receivers to run on.

Speaking of Maldonado, if you're in the habit of not deploying basestealers against the Royals, note new catcher Cam Gallagher is an easier target.

Pitcher Efficiency

Even the best catchers need some help from their pitcher. That said, there are several pitchers who prefer to focus on the batter, hanging their battery-mate out to dry. Jon Lester's aversion to throwing to first is legendary. Others such as Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom don't quicken their delivery with a runner on, confident in their ability to retire the hitter. Here is the rundown of successful steals so far this season against pitchers throwing at least 50 innings.

As useful as it is to target the names at the top of the list, it may be even more helpful to avoid those at the bottom, since there's often an opportunity cost to streaming a stolen-base candidate. That is, unless you're filling an open roster spot on a Monday or Thursday, you're probably leaving a hitter on the bench who would be capable of fortifying other categories.

Monthly Leaders

It helps to have a feel for what to expect, so here's a review of the monthly stolen base leaders:

More relevant than the actual names is that the top guys are likely to poach high teens over the rest of the season. When doing the category math, keep in mind we're about 60 percent through the season, so a five-steal gap is really seven, assuming both teams keep on the current pace. Obviously, teams may not stay on the same pace due to injury, trades etc., but the main point is your target to make up points needs to account for the teams ahead of you continuing to amass stats.

Good luck trying to steal your way to a fantasy championship.