Jordan Lyles

Lyles' best feature from 2022 was again his durability, as he started 32 games and covered 179 innings. The right-hander added a 4.42 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 12-11 record while filling in as a de facto staff ace following John Means' Tommy John surgery. Lyles is entering his age-32 season, so there's little reason to expect significant improvement going forward. He'll be a viable middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Royals after he inked a two-year, $17 million contract. He was able to post a 1.3 HR/9 last season, his lowest mark since 2018 and one that's probably unrepeatable without a move to a more pitcher-friendly division than the AL East.

Baltimore's rotation was a carousel behind top starter John Means in 2021, so Lyles was signed in free agency to cover some innings. The veteran right-hander pitched in 32 games (30 starts) and threw 180 innings for the Rangers last season, but he was one of the worst qualified starters in the majors with a 5.15 ERA. An xFIP of 4.73 offers some room for improvement, but he's unlikely to receive significant help from his defense in Baltimore. Lyles flashed a 2.64 ERA with the Brewers between 2018 and 2019 but hasn't shown anything since to warrant fantasy consideration.

Lyles made 28 starts for the Brewers and Pirates in 2019, but his production fell off with Texas in 2020. Across 12 appearances (nine starts) in 2020, the right-hander posted a 7.02 ERA with a 36:23 K:BB over 57.2 innings. Lyles will attempt to have a bounce-back season in 2021, and he's one of the Rangers' top starting options heading into the season. Although his fastball velocity remained fairly steady in 2020, he leaned on his changeup more, which could have contributed to his 13.5 K%, falling from a mark that was over 20% in each of the two prior seasons. He also allowed a 42.0% hard-hit rate that would have ranked worst among qualified pitchers if he had qualified. Lyles was only able to muster one win during the shortened season, and his 5.62 SIERA and 5.92 xFIP were the worst of his career. The 30-year-old will have to bounce back in a major way to regain more fantasy relevance in 2021.

The Brewers claimed Lyles off waivers in August of 2018 and he was an effective reliever the next two months. He departed for a starting role in Pittsburgh the following offseason, but the Brewers acquired him a second time at last year's trade deadline. At the time Lyles was viewed as rotation filler; but whether they realized it or not, the Brewers actually picked up one of their best starters down the stretch. All Lyles did in his second stint with the Brewers was post a 2.45 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 11 starts, doubling his slider usage over the final two months. While Lyles lacks a track record as a starter and his FIP with the Brewers was almost two runs higher than his ERA, he still landed a two-year deal with the Rangers. His fantasy stock has arguably never been higher thanks to his late-season results and a strikeout rate that topped a batter per inning for the first time in 2019.

Lyles opened the 2018 season in a relief role for the Padres, posting a 3.66 ERA and 16:7 K:BB across 19.2 innings before replacing Robbie Erlin in the starting rotation in May. The right-hander was wildly inconsistent as a starter, allowing four or more runs in four of his eight starts while allowing just four total runs in his other four starts. Forearm tightness sent Lyles to the disabled list at the end of June and forced him to miss more than a month. Once activated, he was sent to the bullpen, where he made a trio of appearances before being traded to the Brewers in August. He increased the usage of his curveball and fastball with Milwaukee, which resulted in an improved ERA and strikeout rate. Lyles signed with Pittsburgh after the Brewers declined his option. He'll compete for a rotation spot, and both Lyles and the Pirates believe his changes can translate to success as a starter.

Despite a lackluster spring showing, Lyles managed to crack the Rockies' Opening Day roster in a long-relief role. He found little success in this role however, as he struck out just 6.4 batters per nine innings and gave up 11 homers in 46.2 frames. The Rockies finally cut ties with the right-hander and designated him for assignment in late July. Lyles found a new home shortly thereafter, with the Padres picking him up on a minor-league deal. A decent performance in the minors allowed him to return to the big leagues for a handful of starts down the stretch. His ERA wound up rising to 9.39, although an extremely high .412 BABIP played a part in that. The Padres brought him back and he figures to compete for a rotation spot in camp, but Lyles' profile and body of work should keep him off most fantasy radars heading into 2018.

Lyles' 2016 campaign was up-and-down. The 26-year-old started the season on a high note by landing a spot in the Rockies' rotation. Things went south quickly, however, as he was shelled in his first few starts and was promptly sent down to Triple-A Albuquerque for more seasoning. Following a bit of time shuttling between the majors and the minors, Lyles found his stride as a reliever over the summer with Colorado, posting a solid 2.88 ERA and a stellar 0.5 HR/9. The right-hander scuffled at the end of the season to bring his season ERA up to 5.83, but he did manage to show that he could pitch effectively at the major league level. That being said, his strikeout ability still didn't come to fruition (4.91 K/9), which hurts his already low value. To make matters worse, many Rockies pitching prospects are knocking on the door of the major league rotation, which could force Lyles into the bullpen for good, and given his low K rate, it will be tough for him to carve out a high-leverage role if that is his fate.

Lyles was poised to be a frontline starter for the Rockies in 2015, but a toe injury that required surgery cut his campaign short in June. Prior to the injury, Lyles performed with mixed results. The 25-year-old held a 2.92 ERA through late April, but the wheels began to fall off afterward, which was reflected in his final line. He continued to be a groundball pitcher in 2015 (2.32 groundball/flyball ratio), which should translate to some success while pitching in an environment like Coors Field. However, he'll have to improve his 1.58 K/BB and .325 BABIP to have much value going forward.

The main get for the Rockies in the deal last winter that sent Dexter Fowler to the Astros, Lyles was expected to open 2014 at Triple-A after languishing in the majors a season earlier. Not only did Lyles surprisingly crack the Rockies’ rotation out of spring training, but he became one of the team’s more reliable starters through the first two months. The 24-year-old covered at least six innings in seven of his first 11 outings, going 5-1 with 3.46 ERA over 65 innings during that span. That would represent the peak of the season for the right-hander, who broke his non-throwing hand in a June 4 start, resulting in a two-month absence. Lyles’ productivity tailed off upon returning in August, but he finished with an acceptable 4.33 ERA, with his FIP (4.22), BABIP (.295) and strand rate (71.3%) suggesting it wasn’t a byproduct of an inordinate amount of luck. He looks poised to develop into a sturdy mid-rotation arm for Colorado, though a weak strikeout rate (6.3 K/9) may never make him an especially enticing fantasy option.

Lyles, 23, endured another rough season in the Astros' starting rotation, posting numbers that were nearly identical to the year prior. In 27 appearances (25 starts), the right-hander pitched to a 7-9 record with a 93:49 K:BB ratio in 141.2 innings. His 5.59 ERA and 1.51 WHIP ranked among the worst in baseball and he had five outings during which he allowed seven earned runs or more. Lyles, like most young pitchers, has experienced growing pains early in his career. He has been very hittable, allowing opposing batters to hit .283 against him, but if he can bring that number down this season, he's likely to take a step forward in his development. Acquired by the Rockies as part of the Dexter Fowler trade in December, Lyles now faces the challenge of minimizing the damage of the contact he surrenders in the most hitter-friendly home park in baseball.

One has to wonder why Lyles has not emerged as the star the 2008 supplemental draft pick was expected to become to this point. Through 235.1 career innings, Lyles sports a stomach-turning 5.20 ERA, allowing far too many home runs and turning average hitters into All-Stars with a career .281 batting average against. Part of the problem may be that Lyles was pushed too aggressively through the minors, and perhaps he should have spent a little more time at Triple-A. Still, he's too good of a prospect for the Astros to cut bait, so the Astros will in all likelihood keep him in the rotation. The problem is the Astros need a proven innings eater, which Lyles has not been thus far.

The young righty received on-the-job training in Houston last season, landing in the starting rotation probably a bit before he was ready to do so. He faded in the final two months with a 7.76 ERA after Aug. 1 but overall the results weren't all that terrible: 4.41 ERA, 1.292 WHIP and a 2.72 K/BB. In fairness, Lyles was overhyped a bit in years past, mainly because as he was the lone true prospect in a bereft Astros farm system. He'll need to work on keeping the ball in the park better next year, but the potential is there. With the glimmer of "impact rookie" now lifted, he is seen better for his true ceiling as a competent No. 3 and likely Astros regular for years to come.

Lyles had a nice 2010 season at the upper levels of the minor leagues, combining for a 3.57 ERA and 137 strikeouts between Double-A and Triple-A. He swooned a bit in September at Round Rock, but he probably just ran out of gas in an otherwise amazingly steady year. Lyles has clean and easy mechanics, hitting 93-94 mph on his best days and usually working right around 90-91. There has been some talk that the Astros will give Lyles a shot to break camp with the team as their No. 5 starter, but the more likely scenario is a midseason callup after some additional Triple-A seasoning.

Despite starting off the season very shaky (5.00 ERA and .280 BAA through his first five starts), Lyles showed his dominance in 2009, racking up a 3.24 ERA, 1.189 WHIP and a 10.4 K/9IP. He is just 19 years old, yet he exhibits the polish of someone three years his senior. Lyles projects as a No. 3 starter, and is probably at least a few years away from a debut in Houston, although he could move very quickly through an organization that remains thin on promising talent.