Mallex Smith

While conventional analysis applies to players of Smith's ilk, it comes with an asterisk. His fourth percentile average exit velocity puts Smith at the mercy of a few more line drives or well-placed grounders he can beat out. Last season, Smith's groundball rate remained around 50%, but 5% of his line drives from 2018 were flyballs last season, helping to torpedo his batting average almost 70 points. A career-worst 24.9 K% didn't help matters. When he managed to get on, Smith delivered with an MLB-best 46 steals. His 2020 role is unclear as Seattle is flush with young outfielders at the major-league level with more on the way. A .300 OBP won't cut it, even with a bounty of swipes. That said, some positive hit-rate regression is likely along with a reversion to previous contact levels. Even so, without the likelihood of at least 500 plate appearances, Smith is simply a high-risk steals flier in roto leagues.

Tampa Bay moved Smith back to Seattle this offseason, which ups his fantasy appeal significantly. He grew as a hitter in his third season against big-league pitching, and you could see it as the season went on. Smith hit .284/.348/.388 in the first half with an 8% walk rate and 20% strikeout rate, but got smoking hot after the break to the tune of .311/.390/.429 line with a 10% walk rate and a 16% strikeout rate. Smith will at times try to do more with his bat than he can and will have lapses in the running game when he trusts his legs more than he should. He can man all three outfield positions, but only grades out decently in left field. Fortunately, Seattle doesn't have any better options in center field in 2019. Smith will likely hit leadoff and should be able to repeat 40 steals since he will have an everyday job at the top of the lineup.

The Rays' crowded outfield and Smith's struggles led to three demotions to Triple-A in 2017. For the season, he went only 16-for-24 on the bases (66.7 percent). Smith must improve his efficiency or win a bigger role to maximize his 80-grade wheels. The 5-foot-10, 180-pounder may display more pop eventually, but he currently lives off groundballs (career 54.7 percentage). Still, his walks (8.7 percent) make up for his shaky contact rate (72.2 percent), and the lefty bat's improvement against southpaws last year (.268 in 41 at-bats) bodes well for a consistently useful batting average, close to his .270 mark from last year. While Denard Span further complicates the outfield in Tampa Bay, the rebuilding Rays want to continue examining Smith, who turns 25 in May, and at his peak, could consistently rank among the best base stealers in the game. Such upside is always in fantasy demand, making Smith a risky but logical sleeper in deeper formats.

Smith is a one-tool player, but it is a special tool. He does not have power, but man does he have speed. He is one of the legitimate 80-tool speedsters in the league, which is what makes him so enticing at a time when stolen bases are becoming more and more scarce. Smith has stolen base totals of 64, 88 and 57 over his past three seasons in the minor leagues and threw in another 16 steals last year in 72 games with Atlanta. His season was shortened by a broken thumb but also had a tough time finding at-bats with Ender Inciarte, Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis eating up the playing time. The speedster's playing time situation is still fairly murky following a trade to Tampa Bay, as it's still unclear whether he'll act in strong side of a platoon in the outfield or if he'll be sent back to Triple-A for more consistent at-bats. Smith knows how to take a walk and can make contact, so the pieces are there for a 40-steal season with playing time as long as he can keep the bat in his hands and not have it knocked out with fastballs. Remember the Billy Hamilton learning curve.

Elite speed is Smith's calling card and that tool was on full display once again last season, as he swiped 57 bases in 70 attempts between Double-A and Triple-A after totaling 88 steals in 2014 and 64 in 2013. He coupled that speed with a strong approach and good contact skills, hitting above .300 with for a second straight season with a career-low 14.3% strikeout rate. Power will never be a big part of the package with Smith, a 5-foot-9, 170-pound center fielder, but he has the potential to be a solid three-category fantasy contributor in time. Offseason trade acquisition Ender Inciarte appears likely to open the year in center field for the big club, but Smith could push Inciarte to left by midseason if he gets off to a strong start while possibly earning a spot at or near the top of the Atlanta batting order.