Walker Buehler

In this era of short starts from starting pitchers, Buehler is something of a unicorn in MLB (non-Ohtani Division). Remarkably, Buehler completed at least six innings in each of his first 16 starts to begin 2021, and went at least six in 26 of his first 27 starts through the end of August. There were a few bumps in the road in September and in the postseason, but Buehler was one of four pitchers to clear 200 innings during the 2021 regular season and he tacked on 18.1 frames in the playoffs. The right-hander held opponents to a .197 batting average, ranking second among qualifiers behind only Max Scherzer, and while his strikeout rate dipped to a career-low 26.0%, his 33.1 O-Swing%, 11.6 SwStr% and 29.6 CSW% were all right in line with career norms. Pitching for one of the best teams in baseball, Buehler has a 31-8 record in the regular season over the past three seasons. This combination of skills, team context and consistency with workload make Buehler a first-round consideration.

A pair of IL stints due to a persistent blister on his pitching hand limited Buehler to just eight regular-season starts in 2020, but he nonetheless continued to demonstrate why he is touted as one of MLB's best young hurlers. The right-hander got off to a slow start after a delayed ramp-up to the shortened campaign, yet he still managed a 3.44 ERA, 28.6 K% and career-best 0.95 WHIP. His fastball was again the star of the show as Buehler placed in the 88th percentile with a 96.8 mph average velocity on his heater and in the 97th percentile for fastball spin while holding hitters to a .102 BA and .119 SLG on his four-seamer. The 26-year-old continued to shine in the postseason, turning in a 1.80 ERA with 39 strikeouts over 25 innings. There may be a handful of pitchers chosen ahead of Buehler in your fantasy draft; if he gets to you in the second round, run a celebratory lap around your home.

Buehler didn't take many days off, posting the first of what should be many 30-start campaigns. Early, the Dodgers limited Buehler's in-game workload as he's just two years removed from Tommy John surgery and they wanted their prized righty fresh for the playoffs. Buehler did his part, allowing just one run in 12.2 postseason frames, but his club of course came up short. With Buehler fronting their rotation, the Dodgers' championship window remains wide open. The 25-year-old right-hander deploys a four-pitch arsenal, featuring a 97-mph fastball he used 60% of the time along with a slider, cutter and curve evenly split the rest of the time. The result was a 3.26 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, with a 24.2 K-BB%, seventh best among qualified starters. Most will group Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer together. Buehler belongs in the next tier, perhaps even at the top.

Buehler was a blast to watch pitch as a rookie in 2018 as he showcased an electric fastball along with two different breaking balls. It was easy to see why he was a first-round draft pick and it is going to be hard to restrain ourselves this draft season in chasing him for our rosters. However, that pursuit should be exercised with an amount of caution. Buehler already has one Tommy John surgery under his belt, which limited the amount of pitching he could do in the minor leagues. Those restrictions were not present last season as Buehler threw a total of 173 innings, nearly doubling his total from 2017. At age 24, to have a workload jump of that size is a risk to keep in mind if you decide you are all in on rostering the young flamethrower. Everything else we want to see in a young future ace is here (21.1% K-BB, 50% GB%), and the team context is certainly favorable.

The 2016 season ended with whispers and a five-inning sample that suggested Buehler could be in for a breakout 2017. He delivered on that promise, and then some. Buehler, who underwent Tommy John surgery after being selected with the No. 24 pick in the 2015 draft, returned at the end of 2016 throwing harder than ever, sitting in the mid-90s and touching 99 mph with his fastball -- a byproduct of the Dodgers’ weighted ball program. He maintained that velocity over his first full pro season while also showing off a plus-plus curveball and hard low-90s cutter/slider. That pitch mix was predictably deadly against minor-league hitters, catapulting Buehler to the majors for a September run as a reliever. Given Buehler’s velocity jump and injury history, he seems a bit riskier than other top pitching prospects, but his upside is undeniable. The Dodgers will likely allow him to throw around 135 innings this season, presumably beginning the year at Triple-A. If he shows improved control, he could spend most of the summer pitching every fifth day in the big leagues.

The Dodgers took a calculated gamble when they selected Buehler with the 24th overall pick in the 2015 draft. Once considered a likely top-10 pick, a pre-draft elbow issue caused him to fall, and he ended up needing Tommy John surgery that August. Buehler returned to the mound late last season, and while he only logged five innings of game action, the early returns suggest the Dodgers may have hit big on their roll of the dice. He touched 99 mph with his fastball in instructs after sitting in the mid-90s during brief appearances in the Arizona and Midwest leagues. It is hard to expect him to maintain that velocity over lengthier outings in the coming years, but even if he settles in at 93-95 mph with his fastball, that makes for a plus offering. He also features a potentially plus curveball and a hard slider/cutter that could be a third plus pitch. An average changeup could round out the repertoire, and at that point Buehler would look the part of a No. 2 starter.

The team's top draft pick in the 2015 amateur draft (24th overall), Buehler dropped a bit down teams' boards due to an elbow injury last spring, and the injury ultimately led to Tommy John surgery this past August. When healthy, the 6-foot-2 Buehler features a mid-90s fastball, slider, curve, and changeup with solid command and the ability to miss bats. Buehler's last 14 starts for Vanderbilt resulted in an 81:25 K:BB over 78.2 innings. He seems likely to miss most, if not all of the 2016 season recuperating, but it is possible he could join a full-season affiliate late in the year, or he could pitch in the Arizona Fall League. Once healthy, he has the ability to move quickly as a college draftee and settle in as a No. 3 big league starter. He's won a College World Series and a Cape Cod Championship, a pedigree that the Dodgers certainly hope carries over.