Andrew Cashner

Everyone saw 2017 as a fluke for Cashner and everyone but his agent and his family told you to avoid him in 2018. His final numbers were a microcosm of the horrific season Baltimore endured. He had absolutely no redeeming value other than absorbing innings so that the parade of relievers the club utilized in 2018 did not have to throw 100 innings each. Cashner returns for another season in Baltimore as it attempts to rebuild its roster with many of the same names that nearly set a futility record in 2018. The only way he should be rostered in an AL-only league is if the Orioles anoint him the closer to see what he can do out of the bullpen with his stuff. Cashner has a vesting option in his deal, but he would have to pitch 197 innings for it to kick in. As bad as Baltimore will be, that will not happen.

Cashner was one of the free-agent bargains of 2017, as he spun 166.2 innings for the Rangers with a 3.40 ERA. Nothing in the underlying numbers points to it being sustainable, however. Cashner had a career-low 4.6 K/9, and he didn't become an elite control specialist along the way (3.5 BB/9). Not surprisingly, his FIP (4.61) was more than a full run higher than his ERA. Looking under the hood of his .266 BABIP (career .290), Cashner had his lowest hard-hit rate (28.4 percent) since 2013, and his highest soft-contact rate (18.5 percent) in any of his eight MLB seasons. For the second straight season, Cashner had a contact rate in the strike zone above 90 percent. He allowed contact outside the zone more than ever (74.9 percent, third among qualified MLB starters). In order to repeat something even close to the same level of success in 2018, Cashner will need a good defense behind him, and he'll need to land in a more pitcher-friendly home park.

Two seasons ago, Cashner was on his way up the escalator of value, but the escalator has reversed direction. He once had all of the raw ingredients for pitching dominance, from a high-octane heater that he could sink with arm-side run and locate on demand to a stable mechanical foundation. What he lacked were effective alternatives to pitch off his fastball, and though his slider had its moments, Cashner struggled to further develop his secondary pitches. In 2016, the fastball command abandoned him, as did the velocity that once made his heater stand out from the crowd. His walk rate spiked to 10.2 percent, two full percentage points higher than any season from 2013-15, and his average fastball dropped more than a full tick to a career-low of 94.5 mph. Without the fastball, Cashner is just a pitcher struggling to hit his spots with marginal stuff and a limited repertoire. He'll get a change of scenery after signing a one-year deal with Texas.

If 31 starts and a strikeout boost were guaranteed from Cashner going into last season, he would have been a top-25 starter in most drafts. Instead, he wound up as one of the biggest disappointments on the mound. Changes behind the dish could have played a role as Yasmani Grandal was shipped out and Derek Norris became the primary catcher. It's hard to say it is all because of Norris, but on fastballs (four-seamers and sinkers) outside of the zone, he had a 19 percent called-strike rate in 2014, an MLB-best. Last year, it dropped to 13 percent (32nd in MLB). Lefties also obliterated him for 14 home runs, as many as Cashner gave up against left-handed hitters from 2012-14, torching all of his pitches. Accepting that he wasn't as good as 2014 or as bad as 2015, what remains is a power pitcher with legitimate upside (low-3.00s ERA) who will go as much as 10 rounds later than he did a year ago. Take a chance.

Following a 2013 breakout campaign, perhaps the biggest question mark surrounding Cashner focused on his workload, which experienced a sudden jump from 70 combined innings between the minors and majors in 2012 to 175 in 2013. His body responded with a pair of DL stints in 2014 due to a sore right elbow and right shoulder discomfort, which resulted in only three nods between May 13 and August 23. While the ailments didn't stop him from improving both his K/9 (from 6.6 to 6.8) and BB/9 (from 2.4 to 2.1) en route to career bests (2.55 ERA and 3.09 FIP) as a starter, the Padres’ historically paltry offense capped his record to 5-7 in 19 starts (123.1 innings). The arbitration-eligible right-hander boasts a career 50.9 GB%, limits walks, and logs most of his outings with spacious Petco Park as a backdrop, which equates to dependable production across the course of a season. With better health, Cashner should also be able to take advantage of better run support from the rebuilt San Diego offense.

Cashner sustained a laceration to his thumb during a hunting incident prior to spring training, which hampered his ability to compete for a starting spot. Opening the season as a long reliever, a start was eventually handed to him on Apr. 20, and he never looked back, holding down the fort thereafter. He especially bloomed in the second half, recording a 7.3 K/9 and 3.21 K/BB in 75.2 innings, while serving up just four homers during that stretch. His breakout campaign culminated with a shutout in his second-to-last nod, when he became the first Padres pitcher to face the minimum 27 batters in a nine-inning game. The right-hander will enter his second full season with the Padres as a guaranteed member of the rotation.

When Cashner is healthy he can be nearly untouchable, but therein lies the problem as he has battled through multiple injuries in his young career. Last season was a prime example of this as he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning of a start in Houston, only to leave the following start with what ended up being a strained lower lat muscle that cost him nearly two months on the DL. The Padres want him to be a starter and how can you blame them, when Cashner can throw near 100 mph and miss bats on a regular basis. Ultimately though, he may be destined for a role as a reliever, where he can pitch max effort and have his workload monitored. As a fantasy investment, Cashner is certainly worth the risk as his potential is that of an elite starter, but he is already expected to miss the start of the season due to a thumb injury suffered in an offseason hunting accident.

The Cubs' 2008 first-round pick won a rotation spot to start the year before a shoulder injury sidelined him for most of the season. Cashner returned at the end of the year, and touched 99 mph on his fastball, so his arm was healthy again - at least in mid-September. Cashner also saw 8.2 innings in the Arizona Fall League, so he should be ready for the start of spring training. The Cubs dealt Cashner to the Padres in January, something that should be a nice boost to his stock given the pitcher-friendliness of cavernous Petco Park. It's unclear at this point whether Cashner will see time in the rotation, given his injury history, but at a minimum he could have a prominent role in the San Diego bullpen.

Cashner dominated as a starter in the high minors last year, but struggled as a reliever for the big league club, with too many walks and pitches over the middle of the plate. Cashner did strike out nearly a batter an inning and also kept the ball on the ground, so there's reason to be encouraged. The 2008 first-round pick can reach 98 mph with his fastball and features a sharp-breaking slider and a solid changeup, a repertoire he could get a chance to display at the back end of the team's rotation this year, especially now that Kerry Wood's signing has the setup role covered.

The Cubs' first-round pick in 2008, Cashner has outstanding raw stuff, touching 98 mph with his fastball and throwing a sharp-breaking slider. Cashner's command needs work, but he did an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, allowing just two home runs in 102 combined innings at High-A and Double-A. Cashner showed better command in the Arizona Fall League, striking out 19 and walking five in 19.2 IP, and he should be in line for a September callup if he pitches well in the high minors this season.

The 22-year-old right-hander has tremendous stuff (98 mph fastball, sharp-breaking slider), but he lacked command in 20 innings combined between the AZL Cubs, short-season Boise and High-A Daytona. His high ceiling makes him worth a look in keeper leagues, but he'll probably spend 2009 at various levels in the minors honing his control.