Chris Paddack

Paddack enters the 2022 season with as much concern as he had hype entering 2020. He exploded onto the season with a stellar rookie campaign, but hit some bumps in 2020 when the league began hunting non-changeups in the count. The lack of a truly effective third pitch has continued to haunt him as Paddack's ratios continue to climb across the board. His 2021 season ended on an unfortunate note of a UCL sprain which required a PRP injection in late September. That measure does not take him out of the woods; far from it. At the very least it puts a crimp on his offseason pitching plans where he normally would have the opportunity to continue working on furthering his curveball which showed some statistical promise last season. His fastball has simply been too hittable the past two seasons, so a deeper repertoire and the confidence to throw any of his three pitches in any count could help stop the ratio bleeding.

Paddack was the talk of baseball for a while in 2019 as he made the jump from Double-A and hit the ground running, cruising to a 3.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 140.2 innings as a 23-year-old. His changeup remained a great weapon in 2020, but his fastball suddenly became entirely too hittable. Major League Baseball combined to hit .308 with a .658 SLG against Paddack's four-seam fastball in 2020, up from .204 and .391 the season prior. Of the 14 homers Paddack allowed, 10 were against the four-seamer. Aside from a minor ankle injury in September, Paddack was ostensibly healthy. His average velocity on his four-seamer held steady, supporting the idea his arm is fine. Paddack, who had Tommy John surgery earlier in his career, is just entering his age-25 season and should theoretically be well rested and capable of handling a relatively heavy workload in 2021. There are some lingering questions, however.

Paddack followed his eye-opening run of success in the minors with an impressive rookie season, emerging as the ace of San Diego's staff. The right-hander paired excellent control (5.5 BB%) and strong strikeout numbers (26.9 K%) to post the fifth-lowest WHIP in the majors (0.98) among pitchers who hurled 100 or more innings. Paddack's fastball isn't overpowering -- it sits at around 94 mph and is thrown with average spin -- but opponents managed to hit only .204 against it due to Paddack's superb command and intelligent mound mechanics. His changeup was even more difficult to handle; Paddack went to the pitch 28.5% of the time, holding hitters to a .190 average. The Padres limited Paddack's workload last season, but he proved his stamina with four dominant starts to close the season. He'll be three years removed from Tommy John surgery in 2020 and should thrive as he's freed to pitch without limitations.

Significant help is finally coming for the Padres’ rotation in 2019, with Paddack leading the way. His fastball doesn’t generate plus readings on the radar gun (typically 93-94 mph), but at 6-foot-4, he gets great extension on the pitch, and plus command allows it to play up at least a full grade. Paddack may have the best changeup in the minors, which, coupled with his fastball command, has enabled him to log a 1.82 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 230:20 K:BB in 177.2 career innings while holding opposing hitters to a .193 AVG. His success to this point is unparalleled. He could make it as a No. 3 starter with his current repertoire. However, if he can improve his breaking ball and/or add another tick to his fastball in his second year back from Tommy John surgery, Paddack could profile as a No. 1 starter. The Padres limited him to 85 pitches per outing in 2018, but they should set him loose this year. He could join the big-league rotation around the All-Star break.

Paddack turned himself into a hot commodity to begin the 2016 campaign, as the 20-year-old posted an absurd 48:2 K:BB in 28.1 innings at Low-A in the Marlins' organization. With a 0.95 ERA to boot, Paddack was traded at the height of his value to the Padres in the Fernando Rodney deal. He continued to dominate through three starts, notching a 0.64 ERA and 23:3 K:BB in 14 subsequent innings for Low-A Fort Wayne. Unfortunately, he then started experiencing elbow problems, was diagnosed with a torn UCL and ultimately underwent Tommy John surgery in August. As a result, he will likely miss the entirety of the 2017 season. When healthy, Paddack combines his sneaky low-90s fastball with a changeup and exceptional command. The development of a third pitch will determine his future path, if he can return to form following surgery.