Brad Keller

Keller had a 3.50 ERA across his first three big-league campaigns, but he struggled mightily last year 5.39 ERA in 26 starts. The 26-year-old saw his strikeout rate rise over three percent to 19.6, but his walk rate also moved up to a career-worst 10.4 percent. His groundball rate also dropped to 47.8 percent after being over 50 percent his first three seasons. As a groundball pitcher that doesn't rely on strikeouts Keller's upside remains limited, but he could be a good rebound candidate given his success prior to 2021.

The results showed up for Keller in his third season in the big leagues, even if the way he garnered them was not as scripted. Keller spent the prior offseason talking about his desire to add a curveball to his repertoire and how the pitch was going to help him in his ongoing battle against lefties. That curveball never showed up in pitch tracking, but his slider usage jumped up quite a bit, so much so that it was two pitch events away from being his most-utilized pitch. The league hit .187 off his slider and .179 off his four-seam fastball, and the fact he threw those two pitches nearly 80% of the time is where the step forward came from. That said, the expected batting average on his fastball was .280, and the slider .248, so use those as a starting point when trying to gauge what a step back could look like.

Keller improved his innings count from 140.1 in 2018 to 165.1 in 2019, but was still shut down at the end of August as the Royals sought to limit his workload. The right-hander's ERA rose to 4.19 in his second year in the majors after he posted a 3.08 ERA in 2018. Keller improved his strikeout rate to 17.2% in 2019, but it was still the sixth-worst rate among qualified pitchers. The 24-year-old rode his sinker to one of the lowest home-run rates in the league, helping make up for the lack of dominance to an extent. Kauffman Stadium allowed the second-fewest home runs in baseball last season, but Keller's home-run rate was almost identical at home and on the road, which is a mark in his favor. Keller could finally see something close to a full season of work in the majors, but the low-end strikeout total and struggles to limit baserunners render him a streamer at best.

A Rule 5 pick last winter, Keller spent the first couple months in the Royals' bullpen before transitioning to a starting role. He was one of Kansas City's most effective arms down the stretch, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over his final eight starts (52 innings), bringing his season ERA down to a shiny 3.08. The right-hander achieved that mark despite a middling 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 -- his 7.9 K-BB% ranked 85th among 88 pitchers with 140 innings. What he lacked in terms of dominance he made up for with groundballs (54.4%), and in turn limiting homers (0.45 HR/9). While he does not have elite velocity, Keller's fastball graded out as one of the best among regular starters thanks to the pitch's movement. His slider was also above average according to FanGraphs' Pitch Values. If he could create a bigger velocity gap between his fastball and changeup, Keller could be something, but until then he'll be a risky, low-K arm on a bad team.