NFL Game Previews: Steelers-Bengals Matchup

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+13), o/u 40.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Whoops. A couple weeks ago, the Steelers were undefeated and headed for a first-round bye. Now, they could be headed for a wild-card matchup with a dangerous opponent like the Dolphins or Ravens. There are plenty of excuses to be made for the first loss, but Pittsburgh simply got outplayed in Buffalo last week. The lack of a consistent running game and a reluctance to stretch the field in the passing game (Ben Roethlisberger is 29th in the league in intended air yards per attempt, between Andy Dalton and Teddy Bridgewater) has made the offense too predictable, and while the defense remains very good, they can't carry the load alone. Fortunately, a date with the Bengals is basically a padded practice at this point, so maybe Mike Tomlin can figure out a solution. Cincy actually made the Dallas defense look good last week, managing to lose fumbles on its first three possessions of the game to dig a hole Brandon Allen couldn't climb out of. Neither of the Joes (Burrow or Mixon) are walking, or even limping, back through that door any time soon, and now even Allen is sidelined, so the offense is in no better shape than the defense. This should all work out in the end — with the Jets and Jags almost certain to take QBs first and second in next year's draft, the Bengals will happily snap up Penei Sewell to anchor the offensive line for Burrow at No. 3 — but it's going to mean a very ugly finish to 2020.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: RB James Conner (questionable, quad), CB Joe Haden (questionable, concussion)

CIN injuries: QB Allen (out, knee)

PIT DFS targets: James Conner $6,000 DK / $6,200 FD (CIN 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 28th in YPC allowed), Chase Claypool $5,900 DK / $6,200 FD (CIN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3), Steelers DST $3,900 DK / $5,000 FD (first in sack rate, first in INT%, t-first in takeaways)

CIN DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: none

CIN DFS fades: Ryan Finley $4,100 DK / $6,500 FD (PIT first in passing DVOA, first in QB rating against, second in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed), Giovani Bernard $4,500 DK / $5,500 FD (PIT third in rushing DVOA, t-first in rushing TDs allowed), A.J. Green $3,400 DK / $5,700 FD (PIT second in DVOA vs. WR3), Drew Sample $2,900 DK / $4,700 FD (PIT first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: CIN is 29th in third-down conversions at 37.3 percent; PIT is t-seventh in third-down defense at 37.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 11-1 PIT, average score 24-15 PIT, average margin of victory 10 points. PIT has won 11 straight meetings

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, 10-11 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Anthony McFarland leads the PIT backfield with 70 combined yards and a TD. Roethlisberger throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Claypool and Eric Ebron. Bernard manages 50 scrimmage yards. Finley throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Steelers, 24-6

San Francisco at Dallas (+3), o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The 49ers are technically still in the wild-card hunt, two games back of the final spot with three left to play, but they also have three teams between them and the Cards, and their path is narrow. Nick Mullens hasn't been helping — he's thrown a pick in five consecutive starts, and while his yardage (273.2 per game) and completion percentage (63.0) have been solid during that stretch, a 6:7 TD:INT isn't going to win many games. Kyle Shanahan even toyed with the idea of switching back to C.J. Beathard this week. With Arizona and Seattle looming to close out their schedule, they are just about done, and soon enough the Niners can start looking forward to an offseason of rehab and trying to not get hurt again. The same can be said for the Cowboys — like their opponents, they do still have a path to a division title, but it would require them to win out, Washington to lose three straight, and the Giants and Eagles not to get too frisky in the meantime. Their defense remains atrocious — they, not the Jets, were the first team in the league to give up 400 points on the season, and while they looked OK against a Joe Burrow-less Bengals team last week, they still gave up more than 300 yards of total offense to a team that lost fumbles on its first three possessions. Andy Dalton's been adequate since getting healthy, completing 68.1 percent of his passes over the last four games with an 8:3 TD:INT, but his 6.4 YPA highlights how he's mostly been dinking and dunking and not fully taking advantage of the roster's one remaining strength, its wide receiving corps. Dallas remains arguably the most fascinating team to watch heading into the draft, though. They're currently slotted fourth, a spot which should give them their pick of the non-Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields quarterbacks in this class if Jerry Jones decides once and for all he doesn't want to (or "can't afford to") pay Dak Prescott $40 million a year.

The Skinny

SF injuries: WR Deebo Samuel (out, hamstring), C Hroniss Grasu (out, knee), RG Tom Compton (IR, concussion), RG Colton McKivitz (questionable, COVID), LB Fred Warner (questionable, shoulder)

DAL injuries: RB Ezekiel Elliot (questionable, calf)

SF DFS targets: Nick Mullens $5,100 DK / $6,800 FD (DAL 28th in QB rating against, 32nd in TD% allowed), Jeff Wilson $5,100 DK / $5,800 FD (DAL 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed), Richie James $3,600 DK / $4,700 FD (DAL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Jordan Reed $3,200 DK / $5,100 FD (DAL 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

DAL DFS targets: CeeDee Lamb $4,500 DK / $5,800 FD (SF 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)

SF DFS fades: none

DAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: DAL is t-29th in red-zone conversions at 50.0 percent; SF is eighth in red-zone defense at 55.9 percent

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Wilson leads the SF backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown. Mullens throws for 270 yards and two TDs, hitting Brandon Aiyuk and James. Elliott manages 60 yards, while Tony Pollard adds 50 combined yards. Dalton throws for 240 yards and scores to Lamb and Amari Cooper. 49ers, 24-23

Seattle at Washington (+5.5), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Not that it happens that often, but I never know what to call a game between the Washington D.C. team and the Washington state team. The Wooden Teeth Bowl? Anyway, this time there's actually a lot on the line. The Seahawks have stumbled lately but are still right there with the Rams for the NFC West lead (though L.A. holds the tiebreaker between them pending the result of their Week 16 rematch), and they'd currently take the first wild card if they don't win their division, which would have them facing (insert dramatic music cue here) the NFC East winner in the first round of the playoffs. Russell Wilson may have gotten right last week against the Jets, and he's closing in on both his first 40-TD campaign and his first season with a completion rate of 70 percent or higher. He's still thrown nine picks in his last eight games, though, something he'll probably need to clean up if Seattle's going to make a deep run in January. He's also been sacked at least 40 times for an NFL-record eighth straight season, including 21 in the five games prior to the Jets win, which is not a weakness you want to have heading into a date with Chase Young and pals. Washington's now won four straight to take charge of the division, thanks to a defense that hasn't given up more than 17 points in a game during that stretch. It's a good thing too, as the team's running out of players capable of scoring. Antonio Gibson missed last week's contest with turf toe and isn't looking great to return for this one, while Alex Smith is nursing a calf strain, putting Dwayne Haskins back under center. Logan Thomas has had a nice couple of games, but it's come at Terry McLaurin's expense, and this doesn't look like a passing game capable of supporting more than one target at a time. Against DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, et al, that might not be enough no matter how heroic an effort the front seven puts together.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RT Brandon Shell (questionable, ankle), DE Carlos Dunlap (questionable, foot)

WAS injuries: QB Smith (out, calf), RB Gibson (doubtful, toe), RB Peyton Barber (questionable, ankle), DT Jonathan Allen (questionable, groin), LB Cole Holcomb (out, concussion)

SEA DFS targets: DK Metcalf $8,600 DK / $8,200 FD (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)

WAS DFS targets: Dwayne Haskins $5,000 DK / $6,500 FD (SEA 25th in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing yards per game allowed)

SEA DFS fades: Russell Wilson $7,300 DK / $8,400 FD (WAS second in passing DVOA, third in passing yards per game allowed), Tyler Lockett $6,700 DK / $7,400 FD (WAS third in DVOA vs. WR2)

WAS DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA is second in red-zone conversions at 74.5 percent; WAS is t-second in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Carson bangs out 70 yards and a score. Wilson throws for 260 yards and two TDs, finding Metcalf and Jacob Hollister. J.D. McKissic has a nice revenge game with 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown. Haskins gets the start and throws for under 200 yards but does hit Isaiah Wright for a second score. Seahawks, 24-17

Chicago (+3) at Minnesota, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

While neither of these teams are in a playoff spot at the moment, both are 6-7 and only one game back of the Cards for the third wild card, so whoever loses this one might be done. The Bears had lost six consecutive games, including against the Vikings in Week 10, before bullying the hapless Texans last week. Mitchell Trubisky continues his late-season push to prove he can still be a starting QB in the NFL (though it might not be in Chicago in 2021, after it declined his fifth-year option in May.) His last three games, he's completed 67.3 percent of his passes with a 7:2 TD:INT, and while his 6.9 YPA isn't terribly exciting, it's a lot better than the 6.0 mark Nick Foles managed. That's also coincided with a big three-game surge from David Montgomery (409 scrimmage yards and four TDs), though the fact that center Cody Whitehair got healthy at the same time might be the biggest factor in the offense's sudden competence. Minnesota came up short in Tampa Bay last week, and it's hard to ignore the pattern for the team's offense this season. Against lesser defenses, the Vikings have averaged 28.9 points a game. Against the three good ones they've faced (the Colts, Bears and Bucs), they've averaged 14.7. That doesn't bode well for this one, and you can be sure the Kirk Cousins haters have taken notes, but Dalvin Cook still topped 100 scrimmage yards in their first meeting, and keeping him on schedule is the key to their game plan.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: TE Jimmy Graham (questionable, hip), OLB Khalil Mack (questionable, shoulder), CB Jaylon Johnson (questionable, shoulder)

MIN injuries: RB Alexander Mattison (questionable, appendix), TE Kyle Rudolph (out, foot), LB Eric Kendricks (out, calf)

CHI DFS targets: Allen Robinson $7,400 DK / $7,300 FD (MIN 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)

MIN DFS targets: Chad Beebe $3,000 DK / $4,600 FD (CHI 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

CHI DFS fades: none

MIN DFS fades: Dalvin Cook $9,000 DK / $9,400 FD (CHI fifth in rushing DVOA, t-fifth in rushing TDs allowed, third in passing DVOA vs. RB), Justin Jefferson $7,300 DK / $7,600 FD (CHI first in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: CHI is 32nd in third-down conversions at 31.9 percent; MIN is fifth in third-down defense at 37.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 MIN, average score 21-18 MIN, average margin of victory 10 points. CHI had won four straight meetings before a 19-13 MIN victory in Week 10

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Montgomery stays hot with 110 scrimmage yards and a score. Trubisky throws for 260 yards and a TD to Robinson but also throws a crucial pick-six to Harrison Smith. Cook rumbles for 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 240 yards and TDs to Irv Smith and Adam Thielen. Vikings, 28-23

New England (+2.5) at Miami, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Patriots are two games back of the Dolphins for the final AFC wild-card spot with two teams in between, so while a win here doesn't finish the job, a loss definitely does. There's also the matter of avoiding Bill Belichick's first losing season since his first one in New England in 2000; he hasn't even failed to win double-digit games since 2002, but that's already off the table. Cam Newton got yanked in last week's ugly loss to the Rams and hasn't topped 120 passing yards (no, that's not a typo) in three consecutive games, but the alternatives are worse, so he'll remain under center for now. A win for Miami keeps it ahead of Baltimore for that third wild card, but its Week 17 trip to Buffalo still looms large for their playoff chances. Only four quarterbacks this season have put up more than 21 points against the Dolphins this season (Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes), and Newton does not belong in that group at this stage of his career. As the over/under suggests, the story of this game is whether Tua Tagovailoa will have the usual success of a rookie QB against a Belichick defense, especially with his top targets banged up. The first meeting between these teams this season was a 21-11 win for the Pats, and that was when Ryan Fitzpatrick was still at the helm for the Dolphins.

The Skinny

NE injuries: RB Damien Harris (questionable, ankle), RB James White (questionable, foot), LT Jermaine Eluemunor (questionable, ankle), RG Shaq Mason (questionable, calf), K Nick Folk (questionable, back), CB J.C. Jackson (questionable, knee)

MIA injuries: RB Salvon Ahmed (questionable, shoulder), WR DeVante Parker (questionable. hamstring), WR Jakeem Grant (questionable, hamstring), TE Mike Gesicki (questionable, shoulder), LG Ereck Flowers (questionable, ankle), LB Jerome Baker (questionable, knee)

NE DFS targets: James White (MIA 25th in YPC allowed, 25th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

MIA DFS targets: Dolphins DST (third in INT%, t-first in takeaways, NE 31st in INT% allowed)

NE DFS fades: Jakobi Meyers (MIA first in DVOA vs. WR2)

MIA DFS fades: Mike Gesicki (NE third in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: NE is 27th in red-zone conversions at 52.3 percent; MIA is 10th in red-zone defense at 57.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 NE, average score 30-17 NE, average margin of victory 16 points. NE won 21-11 in Week 1, but the teams have split the last three season series

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: White leads the NE backfield with 60 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD, while Harris ekes out 50 yards. Newton throws for less than 200 yards and runs for 40, and tosses a pick-six to Eric Rowe. DeAndre Washington leads the MIA backfield with 60 combined yards. Tagovailoa throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Lynn Bowden. Dolphins, 20-7

Jacksonville (+13) at Baltimore, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Jags are holding steady in the second spot in the 2021 draft, and after teasing potential upsets against the Browns and Vikings they went back to being thumped by the opposition last week. At this point, even a rogue win probably won't hurt them, as the Bengals still have that tie on their record. Jacksonville seems destined to head into Week 1 next year with either Justin Fields or Trevor Lawrence as the new franchise QB, but until then it's going back to Gardner Minshew. He was fine in garbage time against the Titans, and his 16-game pace this year would have given him 4,000 passing yards and a 28:10 TD:INT, so he's hardly a bum, but he's not a long-term solution either. Maybe some consistency will help spark DJ Chark, who's been lost in the dark and unable to make his mark. (OK, I'm stopping now.) Despite 29 targets over his last four games, he's posted a measly 12-154-0 line. The Ravens survived a wild one against the Browns last week, but they're still on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, squeezed out of the final wild-card spot on a tiebreaker. With games remaining against the Giants and Bengals after this one, double-digit wins for a third consecutive campaign seems like a lock, but that still might not be good enough. The running game is crushing it again, with J.K. Dobbins as the new Mark Ingram, and the defense is its usual stout self, but Lamar Jackson's inability to get hot as a passer is still holding them back. He's thrown for more than 200 yards only four times all year, and topped 250 yards only once. To put that in perspective, there are 16 quarterbacks in the league this year averaging better than 250 a game, including such luminaries as Teddy Bridgewater and this week's opponent Minshew. The formula should be more than good enough here, but Baltimore will need more from Jackson if it is still playing past Week 17.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: CB Sidney Jones (out, Achilles)

BAL injuries: WR Marquise Brown (questionable, COVID), DE Derek Wolfe (questionable, neck), DE Calais Campbell (questionable, calf), CB Marcus Peters (questionable, calf), CB Jimmy Smith (out, shoulder)

JAC DFS targets: none

BAL DFS targets: Lamar Jackson $7,500 DK / $8,200 FD (JAC 31st in passing DVOA, 31st in QB rating against, 32nd in YPA allowed, 31st in TD% allowed), J.K. Dobbins $5,900 DK / $5,900 FD (JAC 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 26th in YPC allowed)

JAC DFS fades: Gardner Minshew $5,300 DK / $6,600 FD (BAL second in YPA allowed, fourth in TD% allowed)

BAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC is 19th in third-down conversions at 41.1 percent; BAL is t-third in third-down defense at 36.3 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 30s, less than 10 mph wind, 10-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: James Robinson picks up 70 combined yards. Minshew throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting Chark and Keelan Cole. Dobbins leads the BAL backfield with 80 yards and a score, while Gus Edwards adds 60 yards and a touchdown. Jackson runs for 50 yards and a TD as well, while throwing for 210 yards and a touchdown to Mark Andrews. Ravens, 31-20

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (+6), o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Bucs probably won't catch the Saints in the NFC South, but they're nestled pretty comfortably into a wild-card spot,  two games up on the teams trying to climb their way into the playoff picture. That gives them a little extra time to figure out why the offense isn't among the league's elite, despite all its star power. Injuries have played a small part and will do so again this week with Ronald Jones likely sidelined, and it's not like the Bucs have been terrible — they're sixth in point per game at 28.5 — but they haven't lit anybody up since the Panthers in Week 10, and Tom Brady's been alternating big games of more than 340 passing yards with soft ones of less than 220. He's also thrown multiple picks in three of his last five games. The Falcons are hunting for a top-5 draft pick and have a shot at the worst record in the NFC when it's all said and done, but their 4-4 record under Raheem Morris says Dan Quinn did all the heavy lifting to get them to that position. Their offense has struggled too, and not just relative to expectations. Atlanta's 16th in scoring (25.2 ppg) and 20th in offensive touchdowns, but hey, at least Younghoe Koo leads the league in made field goals. Julio Jones is also set to miss another game, and it's hard to overstate how much Matt Ryan has missed him this season when he's been out. In his four games with Julio, Ryan has yet to top 238 passing yards, and he has a 4:6 TD:INT.

The Skinny

TB injuries: RB Jones (doubtful, COVID/finger), LT Donovan Smith (out, COVID)

ATL injuries: WR Julio Jones (out, hamstring), LG James Carpenter (questionable, groin), RT Kaleb McGary (questionable. personal), CB Darqueze Dennard (out, quad)

TB DFS targets: Tom Brady $6,600 DK / $7,900 FD (ATL 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 28th in YPA allowed)

ATL DFS targets: Hayden Hurst $3,300 DK / $5,500 FD (TB 25th in DVOA vs. TE)

TB DFS fades: none

ATL DFS fades: Todd Gurley $4,700 DK / $6,100 FD (TB second in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed)

Key stat: TB is sixth in red-zone conversions at 70.8 percent; ATL is 29th in red-zone defense at 68.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 ATL, average score 28-26 ATL, average margin of victory seven points. ATL has won six of the last seven meetings

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Leonard Fournette racks up 80 combined yards. Brady throws for 260 yards and two TDs, finding Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski. Gurley ekes out 40 yards. Ryan throws for 270 yards and a touchdown to Calvin Ridley. Buccaneers, 20-16

Detroit (+10.5) at Tennessee, o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Darrell Bevell's tenure as interim coach of the Lions hasn't gone too badly so far. He won in Chicago and kept Aaron Rodgers from blowing them out, which is as much as the new guy in the NFC North can hope for. Bevell's job could be about to get a lot harder, though. While Detroit isn't mathematically eliminated from the playoffs it realistically has no shot, and Matthew Stafford is battling through both a lingering thumb injury and now some very sore ribs. Shutting the veteran QB down for the year would make a lot of sense (while also helping improve the team's draft position), and Chase Daniel isn't going to steal any wins, especially when the Lions' remaining schedule features nothing but teams fighting for playoff spots or seeding. On top of that, Derrick Henry has more to play for than just the postseason. With three December games to go, he's looking to become only the eighth running back in history with 2,000 rushing yards in a season. While 468 yards in three games might seem like a lot, not only is this Henry down the stretch we're talking about — he's averaging 131.7 yards a game in December since 2018 — his schedule is also excellent, as he'll be facing the teams currently ranked 22nd (the Packers), 26th (the Lions) and 29th (the Texans) in rushing DVOA. There's even little likelihood of a Week 17 shutdown, as the Titans are neck and neck with the Colts for the AFC South title. Think about it this way: do you want to be the one to tell him he can't do it?

The Skinny

DET injuries: QB Stafford (questionable, ribs), WR Kenny Golladay (out, hip), C Frank Ragnow (out, neck), RT Tyrell Crosby (out. ankle), CB Darryl Roberts (out, hip)

TEN injuries: LG Rodger Saffold (questionable, toe), CB Adoree' Jackson (questionable, knee), S Kenny Vaccaro (questionable, illness)

DET DFS targets: T.J. Hockenson $5,200 DK / $6,200 FD (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

TEN DFS targets: Ryan Tannehill $6,700 DK / $7,700 FD (DET 30th in passing DVOA, 31st in YPA allowed), Derrick Henry $9,500 DK / $10,200 FD (DET 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, t-31st in rushing TDs allowed)

DET DFS fades: none

TEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: TEN is third in red-zone conversions at 73.1 percent; DET is t-30th in red-zone defense at 70.6 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: D'Andre Swift picks up 80 combined yards and a TD. Daniel starts and throws for 200 yards but gets picked off twice. Henry rampages for 160 yards and two touchdowns. Tannehill throws for 230 yards and two scores, finding A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. Titans, 31-13

Houston (+7) at Indianapolis, o/u 51.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Texans got taken to the woodshed last week by the Bears, but all their losses do is give the Dolphins a better pick in the first round of next year's draft, so it's not like they have incentive to tank. This simply isn't a good football team — the defense is awful, and Deshaun Watson doesn't have a whole lot of help on his side of the ball. It's a shame he won't be in the MVP conversation, because he's really having an incredible year under almost impossible circumstances — he leads the league in YPA, is fourth in QB rating, and fifth in completion percentage. The Colts remain locked in a wrestling match for the AFC South crown with the Titans, but Tennessee holds the tiebreaker edge, so Indy really needs to win one more game to take it home. Both teams have similar remaining schedules too, with one tough opponent sandwiched between two creampuffs, but the Colts may have a slight edge there, as while their division rivals will face Aaron Rodgers and Packers in Lambeau, they get the slumping Steelers in Pittsburgh. Jonathan Taylor has also picked the right time to come alive. The rookie's piled up 414 scrimmage yards and three TDs  his last three games, just in time to face one of the softest run defenses in the league. To be fair, just about everyone on the Indy offense seems poised for a big game on paper, but Houston did keep the first meeting between them this season fairly close. Whether they can do the same on the road in the rematch is another question, though.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: RB Duke Johnson (questionable, neck), WR Will Fuller (out, suspension), CB Bradley Roby (out, suspension), CB Phillip Gaines (questionable, knee)

IND injuries: TE Mo Alie-Cox (questionable, knee), LT Anthony Castonzo (questionable, knee), DT DeForest Buckner (questionable, ankle)

HOU DFS targets: none

IND DFS targets: Philip Rivers $5,900 DK / $7,100 FD (HOU 32nd in QB rating against), Jonathan Taylor $7,200 DK / $7,400 FD (HOU 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPC allowed), T.Y. Hilton $5,500 DK / $6,800 FD (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Michael Pittman $4,800 DK / $5,500 FD (HOU 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Jack Doyle $2,800 DK / $4,800 FD (HOU 30th in DVOA vs. TE), Colts DST $3,600 DK / $4,900 FD (fourth in INT%, HOU 30th in sack rate allowed)

HOU DFS fades: David Johnson $5,100 DK / $5,900 FD (IND fifth in rushing yards per game allowed), Jordan Akins $2,800 DK / $5,000 FD (IND fourth in DVOA vs. TE), Texans DST $2,400 DK / $3,300 FD (32nd in INT%, 32nd in takeaways, IND fourth in sack rate allowed)

IND DFS fades: none

Key stat: IND is 24th in third-down conversions at 39.3 percent; HOU is 25th in third-down defense at 45.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 7-5 IND, average score 23-20 IND, average margin of victory six points. The last 13 regular-season meetings have been decided by single-digit points

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: David Johnson leads the HOU backfield with 60 scrimmage yards. Watson throws for 280 yards and TDs to Brandin Cooks and Chad Hansen. Taylor pops for 120 combined yards and a touchdown, while Nyheim Hines also scores. Rivers throws for 250 yards and two scores, finding Hilton and Doyle. Colts, 31-23

Philadelphia (+6.5) at Arizona, o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The 2019 quarterback class is looking pretty good. Like, maybe 2004 or even 1983 good. Justin Herbert's been a revelation, Joe Burrow looked like a worthy No. 1 overall pick before getting hurt, Tua Tagovailoa has looked mature beyond his years, and now Jalen Hurts goes out and wins his first NFL start by rushing for more than 100 yards against a tough Saints defense that hadn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 55 consecutive games. He hasn't impressed as a passer yet, but few QBs have lately against New Orleans. The victory also kept alive the Eagles' flagging hopes of an NFC East title, though even if they win out, they'd need a lot of help to get there. Hurts isn't likely to stop running any time soon — Philly's offensive line is a shell of its former self, with four starting-quality players plus some depth options all on the shelf. The Cards have fallen out of the race in the NFC West but remain in the final wild-card spot thanks to last week's win over the Giants, and Kyler Murray's shoulder might be feeling better. His 47 rushing yards in New Jersey was his most since Week 10, but, more important, he ran the ball more than 10 times again. Murray hasn't scrambled for a TD during that four-game stretch though, and without those additional scores, the Arizona offense has sputtered, failing to reach the 30-point mark they were routinely hitting when the second-year QB was 100 percent healthy. Much as it would be fun to see Murray and Hurts go at it dash for dash and throw for throw, it might be another season or two before that becomes a true marquee matchup.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: CB Darius Slay (out, concussion)

ARI injuries: RB Chase Edmonds (questionable, ankle), LG Justin Pugh (questionable, calf), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (questionable, hamstring)

PHI DFS targets: Greg Ward $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD (ARI 26th in DVOA vs. WR2)

ARI DFS targets: Christian Kirk $4,300 DK / $5,300 FD (PHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR2, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws)

PHI DFS fades: Alshon Jeffery $3,400 DK / $5,200 FD (ARI first in DVOA vs. WR3)

ARI DFS fades: none

Key stat: ARI is seventh in red-zone conversions at 68.8 percent; PHI is t-26th in red-zone defense at 66.7 percent

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Miles Sanders zips for 100 combined yards and a TD. Hurts throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Ward while running for 50 yards. Kenyan Drake picks up 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Murray throws for 280 yards and two TDs, hitting Kirk and DeAndre Hopkins, while also running in a score of his own. Cardinals, 31-17

N.Y. Jets (+17) at L.A. Rams, o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Three more games to perfection, and three more games to give the (presumably) new brain trust their choice of Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields to build a franchise around. The schedule certainly lines up for an 0-16 finish, as the Rams and Browns definitely have something to play for, and winning on the road against Bill Belichick is always going to be a tough task, even if the Pats are out of the playoff picture. The Jets have coughed up at least 30 points in five of their last six, and when they held Miami to only 20 in Week 12, Sam Darnold led the offense to a measly field goal — a feat he repeated last week. In fact, New York's scored 10 points or less an incredible seven times this year, and in this matchup, feeble offensive showing No. 8 seems almost inevitable. The Rams also held the Pats to only three points last week, and after the Seahawks — their competition for the NFC West crown — thumped the Jets 40-3 in Week 14, the Rams might be tempted to see if they can do even better against the league's punching bags. The roster is mostly healthy, Cam Akers has apparently seized the top job in the backfield, and Aaron Donald has a three-game sack streak going. This one could — no, should — be over early.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: WR Jamison Crowder (questionable, calf)

LAR injuries: none

NYJ DFS targets: none

LAR DFS targets: Jared Goff $6,300 DK / $7,800 FD (NYJ 32nd in passing DVOA, 30th in QB rating against, 31st in passing yards per game allowed), Rams DST (third in sack rate, t-fourth in takeaways, NYJ 27th in sack rate allowed, t-27th in INT% allowed)

NYJ DFS fades: Sam Darnold $4,800 DK / $6,600 FD (LAR third in passing DVOA,, second in QB rating against, first in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, first in TD% allowed), Ty Johnson $4,200 DK / $5,000 FD (LAR sixth in rushing DVOA, third in rushing yards per game allowed, sixth in YPC allowed), Breshad Perriman $3,700 DK / $5,700 FD (LAR second in DVOA vs. WR2, first in DVOA vs. deep throws)

LAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYJ are 31st in third-down conversions at 32.9 percent; LAR are second in third-down defense at 34.3 percent

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Johnson leads the NYJ backfield with 60 combined yards. Darnold throws for less than 200 yards, gets picked off twice and sacked five times. Akers leads the LAR backfield with 80 yards and a score. Goff throws for 240 yards and TDs to Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee. Rams, 27-0

Kansas City at New Orleans (+3), o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

It's time to officially start the Travis Kelce watch. No tight end has ever led the NFL in receiving yards, but here he is, pacing the league with three games remaining. He's 70 yards ahead of DK Metcalf, with three other guys (Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins and teammate Tyreek Hill) all within 100. Kelce's hit for triple digits in five of the last six games, and it's not like he's taken advantage of a long stretch of soft opponents. He's simply been seeing high target volume from one of the most talented QBs of all time, which is a formula for history-making if there ever was one. Pittsburgh's recent stumbles have also pushed Kansas City into the top seed in the AFC, and you know Patrick Mahomes isn't going to want to give it back. The Saints are on the other side of that coin — last week's no-show by their normally nasty run defense led to a loss to the Eagles, and now they're staring up at the Packers for that precious first-round bye. Taysom Hill has looked more comfortable as a passer every week, but with Drew Brees set to return this week, he'll go back to his gadget role, though Sean Peyton might be tempted to give him more snaps than before. That means it's back to business as usual for the offense, which this season has meant no Michael Thomas as often as not. He'll miss his seventh game of the season, depriving Brees of a weapon he might need badly if this one turns into a shootout.

The Skinny

KC injuries: LT Eric Fisher (questionable, back), RT Mike Remmers (doubtful, back), LB Damien Wilson (out, knee)

NO injuries: WR Thomas (out, ankle), WR Deonte Harris (questionable, neck), RG Nick Easton (out, concussion)

KC DFS targets: Mecole Hardman $3,400 DK / $5,400 FD (NO 21st in DVOA vs. WR3)

NO DFS targets: Alvin Kamara $7,400 DK / $7,800 FD (KC 30th in rushing DVOA, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)

KC DFS fades: Clyde Edwards-Helaire $5,800 DK / $6,400 FD (NO first in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, t-first in rushing TDs allowed), Travis Kelce $8,000 DK / $8,500 FD (NO second in DVOA vs. TE)

NO DFS fades: Emmanuel Sanders $4,200 DK / $5,500 FD (KC second in DVOA vs. WR1), Saints DST $2,900 DK / $3,800 FD (KC sixth in sack rate allowed, second in INT% allowed, t-third in giveaways)

Key stat: KC is t-21st in red-zone conversions at 57.1 percent; NO is t-26th in red-zone defense at 66.7 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: CEH manages 70 combined yards. Mahomes throws for 280 yards and three TDs, finding Kelce, Hardman and Hill. Kamara racks up 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Brees has a relatively quiet return, throwing for 250 yards and a score to Jared Cook. Kansas City, 24-23

Cleveland at N.Y. Giants (+4.5), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Browns couldn't exorcise their purple demons last week, losing again to the Ravens, but at least they came closer this time than they did in Week 1. Baker Mayfield, surprisingly, has been the key to the offense lately, posting an 8.6 YPA with an 8:1 TD:INT the last three games while averaging more than 300 yards, but it's not like the running game has been forgotten — Nick Chubb has at least 80 rushing yards in five consecutive games and five TDs over that stretch, while Kareem Hunt has chipped in a few scores as well. In fact, Cleveland has somewhat quietly become one of the most dangerous offenses in the NFL, as only the Packers and Titans have struck for 40-plus points in a game as many times as the Browns. The Giants came up short last week at home against the Cards as Daniel Jones fell back into bad habits, but their playoff hopes haven't completely dimmed — they're only one game back of Washington for the NFC East lead, and they swept the season series against the Nameless Wonders. All they have to do is win one more game than Washington, though that's easier said than done for a team with only five W's. The defense remains respectable and hasn't given up more than 26 points since Week 5, but the offense hasn't scored more than 23 during that time, meaning they're always walking the knife's edge every week with a lot of pressure on Jones, or whoever is under center, not to make untimely mistakes. In this case, it looks like that will be Colt McCoy, who led the upset win over the Seahawks a couple weeks ago. Whether that's because Jones has a setback with his ankle, or because Joe Judge doesn't want to risk another shaky display of ball security, isn't entirely clear.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: WR KhaDarel Hodge (questionable, hamstring), TE Austin Hooper (questionable, neck), RG Wyatt Teller (out, ankle), CB Denzel Ward (questionable, calf)

NYG injuries: QB Jones (questionable, ankle), TE Evan Engram (questionable, calf), CB James Bradberry (out, COVID), CB Darnay Holmes (out. knee)

CLE DFS targets: Donovan Peoples-Jones $3,400 DK / $4,900 FD (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

NYG DFS targets: Evan Engram $4,100 DK / $5,500 FD (CLE 26th in DVOA vs. TE)

CLE DFS fades: none

NYG DFS fades: Sterling Shepard $4,700 DK / $5,400 FD (CLE third in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: NYG are t-29th in red-zone conversions at 50.0 percent; CLE is 23rd in red-zone defense at 64.8 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 30s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-20 percent chance of snow. Also a chance of fog later in the game

The Scoop: Chubb churns out 90 yards and a TD, while Hunt adds 70 combined yards and a score. Mayfield throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Rashard Higgins and Peoples-Jones. Wayne Gallman manages 60 yards and a score. McCoy throws for 230 yards and a TD to Levine Toilolo. Browns, 28-23

Buffalo at Denver (+6.5), o/u 50.0 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Bills keep rolling, having won three consecutive games and six of their last seven, and if it weren't for the Hail Murray they'd be in the thick of the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC as their win over the Steelers last week gives them a crucial tiebreaker. They also have a two-game bulge on the Dolphins in the East and the tiebreaker advantages, so a victory here and they take home their first division title since the waning days of the Jim Kelly era. (Although, if you had to script it, clinching next week in Gillette Stadium would be sooo much sweeter). Josh Allen continues to sling it, completing 70.6 percent of his passes over the last five games with a 12:4 TD:INT and nearly 300 passing yards a game, but it's the defense that's been stepping up lately, holding the Chargers and Steelers to 17 points or less since Buffalo's Week 11 bye. The Broncos aren't going away quietly, though. Last week's win over the Panthers has them at 5-8, which right now isn't even good enough for a top-10 pick in next year's draft. Drew Lock erupted for four TDs last week and, perhaps more important, didn't throw an INT (though he did lose one of his two fumbles because, hey, it's still Drew Lock). Considering that Denver probably won't be in position to draft one of the top QBs in the 2021 class, any development Lock can show down the stretch would be a definite plus.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: LB Tremaine Edmunds (questionable, foot)

DEN injuries: RB Melvin Gordon (questionable, shoulder), RB Phillip Lindsay (questionable, hip), RG Graham Glasgow (questionable, toe), K Brandon McManus (questionable, COVID), CB A.J. Bouye (out, suspension)

BUF DFS targets: Zack Moss $4,500 DK / $5,700 FD (DEN 25th in rushing DVOA, 27th in rushing yards per game allowed, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed), Bills DST $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD (DEN 32nd in INT% allowed, 32nd in giveaways)

DEN DFS targets: Tim Patrick $4,300 DK / $5,700 FD (BUF 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)

BUF DFS fades: none

DEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: BUF is third in third-down conversions at 49.3 percent; DEN is 11th in third-down defense at 39.2 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, 9-10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Moss leads the BUF backfield with 80 yards and a score, while Devin Singletary adds 50. Allen throws for 270 yards and TDs to Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox. Gordon picks up 60 yards. Lock throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to KJ Hamler and Patrick but gets picked off twice. Bills, 27-20

Carolina (+8.5) at Green Bay, o/u 51.5 – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

With 2020 almost in the books, let's slip one last conspiracy theory in, shall we? I seriously wonder if Christian McCaffrey is really taking this long to heal, or if the Panthers just don't want to jeopardize their draft position by putting their best player back on the field. If so, it's working — they've dropped seven of their last eight games, and based on the current standings they'd be picking sixth in 2021. Even better, the closest thing to a soft matchup on their remaining slate is a Week 16 road battle with a Washington club trying to win its division. Carolina is expected to get DJ Moore back from the COVID-19 list, at least giving Teddy Bridgewater a full complement of targets in Lambeau. Will it matter? Probably not. The Packers are suddenly in the top seed in the NFC thanks to last week's flop by the Saints and their own Week 3 win in New Orleans. Green Bay's won three straight and five of six as Aaron Rodgers slices and dices up the league. He's posted a ridiculous 74.4 percent completion rate, 8.7 YPA and 19:2 TD:INT over that six-game stretch, and Davante Adams has found the end zone at least once in all six (his TD streak is actually at eight games, and the last team to keep him from scoring was the Bucs in Week 6, in Adams' first game back from a hamstring strain). A slumping Panthers secondary that just got lit up by ... (double-checks notes) Drew Lock? Really? Wow. Anyway, they would be an unlikely crew to slow down the Green Bay duo.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: RB McCaffrey (doubtful, thigh), WR Moore (questionable, COVID/ankle), LT Russell Okung (questionable, calf), S Tre Boston (questionable, hamstring)

GB injuries: WR Allen Lazard (questionable, abdomen), RG Lucas Patrick (questionable, toe), OLB Za'Darius Smith (questionable, ankle), CB Kevin King (questionable, Achilles)

CAR DFS targets: Mike Davis $6,500 DK / $7,400 FD (GB 28th in YPC allowed, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

GB DFS targets: Allen Lazard $4,100 DK / $5,600 FD (CAR 25th in DVOA vs. WR3)

CAR DFS fades: Panthers DST $2,200 DK / $3,200 FD (30th in INT%, GB second in sack rate allowed, first in INT% allowed, t-first in giveaways)

GB DFS fades: none

Key stat: GB is second in third-down conversions at 49.7 percent; CAR is 31st in third-down defense at 50.6 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 30s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Davis gains 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Bridgewater throws for 240 yards and TDs to Robby Anderson and Moore, but he gets picked off twice, one of which Christian Kirksey returns to the house. Aaron Jones bangs out 100 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving, while Jamaal Williams adds 60 combined yards. Rodgers throws for 230 yards and two more touchdowns, hitting Adams and Robert Tonyan. Packers, 41-21

L.A. Chargers (+3) at Las Vegas, o/u 53.0 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Leave it to the Chargers to wait until they're 3-9 to figure out how to kick a game-winning field goal, but I have to hand it to them — last week's victory over the Falcons didn't actually hurt their 2021 draft position, though it did make it that much less likely they'd creep into the top three. Given the logjam of teams with four and five wins, though, they can't afford any more slip-ups from here, even if it would be awfully tempting to crush the Raiders' fading playoff hopes. Justin Herbert posted the best single-game completion rate of his young career against Atlanta, but it only translated into a 5.5 YPA, and he hasn't reached 8.0 since Week 7. He could also be without his top two wideouts for this one, which would be a shame given how generous the Vegas secondary has been lately. The Raiders have lost three of their last four, and it took an early Christmas present from Gregg Williams to avoid losing four straight. Opposition QBs have completed 65.9 percent of their passes during that stretch with an 8:3 TD:INT, and the only reason they haven't thrown for more yards is because the run defense has been just as bad. When you're making Sam Darnold and Ito Smith look good, something is amiss. That's all been great for Derek Carr's volume stats at least, but at 7-6 the Raiders are now one game behind the Dolphins for the final AFC wild card, and the Ravens are a win ahead of them as well on the bubble. That makes their Week 16 clash with Miami a must-win ... assuming they don't blow this one.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: RB Austin Ekeler (questionable, quad), WR Keenan Allen (questionable, hamstring), WR Mike Williams (questionable, back), RT Bryan Bulaga (out, concussion)

LV injuries: WR Henry Ruggs (out, COVID), CB Nevin Lawson (questionable, illness), S Johnathan Abram (out, concussion)

LAC DFS targets: Austin Ekeler $7,500 DK / $7,600 FD (LV 32nd in rushing DVOA, t-31st in rushing TDs allowed)

LV DFS targets: Josh Jacobs $6,500 DK / $7,400 FD (LAC 31st in rushing DVOA, 24th in YPC allowed), Hunter Renfrow $3,600 DK / $5,300 FD (LAC 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)

LAC DFS fades: none

LV DFS fades: none

Key stat: LV is first in third-down conversions at 50.0 percent; LAC are 23rd in third-down defense at 43.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 LV, average score 23-21 LAC, average margin of victory seven points. LV has won three straight meetings, but hasn't won a game in this rivalry by more than a single score since Week 5 of 2013 

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Ekeler suits up and leads the LAC backfield with 110 combined yards and a TD. Herbert throws for 280 yards and two scores, hitting Allen and Tyron Johnson. Josh Jacobs hits for 80 yards and two touchdowns. Carr throws for 300 yards and two TDs, finding Darren Waller and Renfrow. Raiders, 31-24

Last week's record: 8-8, 8-8 ATS, 8-7-1 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 127-80-1, 104-100-4 ATS, 96-107-5 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
Lifetime record: 920-562-6, 697-737-54 ATS, 589-618-25 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)