NFL Game Previews: Texans at Cowboys Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

Houston at Dallas (+7.5), o/u 42.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Texans have lost three of their last four but still hold a two-game lead in the AFC South, which just about sums up the state of the division. The offense has sputtered without healthy targets for C.J. Stroud to throw to, and the second-year QB has stumbled to a 55.9 percent completion rate, 5:3 TD:INT and 6.5 YPA over the last five games. Fortunately Joe Mixon's been able to keep the offense going, scoring seven total TDs with 586 scrimmage yards during that stretch, and Nico Collins should be back this week. The defense has been more consistent than the offense, giving up between 20 and 26 points in each of those five games, but last week's five interceptions of Jared Goff continued a very encouraging trend that has seen Houston collect 15 takeaways and 14 sacks. DeMeco Ryans' crew could be poised for a huge finish to the season, especially once players like Will Anderson get healthy.

The Cowboys may not be the most disappointing team in the league this season – the Bengals and Jets are both firmly in that discussion – but they might be the most predictably disappointing, given the train wreck of an offseason the team had. Dallas has lost four straight by an average score of about 35-15, and injuries have hammered the roster on both offense and defense. Dak Prescott's done for the year, giving Mike McCarthy the unenviable choice of handing the offense to the low-ceiling caretaker Cooper Rush, or the wildly erratic but potentially more exciting Trey Lance. Micah Parsons did return last week and immediately racked up two sacks, but the secondary is still missing two starting corners. Even CeeDee Lamb has developed a sore back from trying to carry the entire offense by himself. The Cowboys' remaining schedule still includes the Giants and Panthers, which is probably enough to9 shut them out of serious considering for a pick at the top of the 2025 draft, but Jerry Jones would probably just trade it for some guy he really wanted but missed out on in the 2022 draft anyway.

Key Info

HOU injuries: EDGE Will Anderson (out, ankle), LB Christian Harris (IR, calf)
DAL injuries: WR CeeDee Lamb (questionable, back), WR Brandin Cooks (IR, knee), EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), CB DaRon Bland (out, foot)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
HOU DFS targets: C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, John Metchie, Texans DST
DAL DFS targets: none

HOU DFS fades: none
DAL DFS fades: Rico Dowdle, Jake Ferguson

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Mixon romps for 120 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Stroud throws for 300 yards and two more TDs, hitting Collins (who tops 100 yards) and Metchie. Dowdle scrapes together 40 yards. Rush throws for less than 200 yards, gets picked off twice and sacked five times, but he does find Lamb for a score. Texans 34-13

EARLY SUNDAY

Green Bay at Chicago (+5.5), o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Packers needed a bye. They're 6-3 and still very much in the mix in the NFC North, but Jordan Love hadn't thrown a TD in two straight games thanks to a groin strain, so extra time to heal up was probably welcome. The 26-year-old has had an erratic second season as the starter so far, with his YPA and TD% rising a few ticks from 2023, but his completion rate dropping and his INT% creeping up as well. The fact that he's had two separate lower-body injuries isn't great either. Josh Jacobs has at least been a stabilizing presence, and he's on pace for his second career season with 1,500 scrimmage yards. The secondary... well, Xavier McKinney anyway, has been opportunistic, and the defense is tied for second in the league in takeaways to make up for fairly mediocre numbers elsewhere. Injuries are probably the only thing that could keep the Packers from the playoffs, but it'll probably take Love putting things together a bit more before they'll seem like a real threat for a deep run in January.

A month ago, Caleb Williams looked like he might give Jayden Daniels some competition for the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. In three games since the Bears' bye though, the offense has completely fallen apart, to the point that OC Shane Waldron got sacked, pun very much intended. Williams was brought down a horrific 18 times during that three-game losing streak, including a incomprehensible nine times by a Patriots defense that came into last week with only 16 sacks through its first nine games. Poorly sourced and completely unreliable locker room scuttlebutt suggests some Chicago players want the rookie QB yanked from the starting lineup in favor of Tyson Bagent, but I mean, c'mon. If you told me Williams' teammates were concerned about his health and wanted to protect him until the team's offensive line issues got sorted out, I might believe it, but nobody can seriously think Bagent gives the team a better chance to win. The offensive struggles have put additional pressure on a defense that has still played pretty well, but the Bears' three worst games by total yards allowed have been their last three. Chicago's got an absolutely brutal gauntlet to run the rest of the season – in addition to all six of their NFC North rivalry games, they get the 49ers and Seahawks – and it's probably time to start thinking about 2025 anyway, or at least figuring out how to avoid ruining Williams for whichever head coach gets brought in to replace Matt Eberflus this winter.

Key Info

GB injuries: RB MarShawn Lloyd (IR, ankle), S Evan Williams (questionable, hamstring)
CHI injuries: EDGE Montez Sweat (questionable, ankle), S Jaquan Brisker (IR, concussion)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
GB DFS targets: Josh Jacobs, Packers DST
CHI DFS targets: Cole Kmet

GB DFS fades: none
CHI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 15-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Jacobs pops for 130 combined yards and a TD. Love throws for 240 yards and two scores, finding Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft. D'Andre Swift puts together 70 yards and a touchdown. Williams throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Kmet, but he takes five more sacks and throws two more picks. Packers 27-17

Jacksonville (+13.5) at Detroit, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Heading into Week 11, the Jaguars have nosed into the lead in the race for the top pick in the 2025 draft, just ahead of the Giants based on strength of schedule. Their odds of hanging onto that spot look pretty good too, if Trevor Lawrence's shoulder injury ends up being season-ending. For now, Mac Jones will be under center for Jacksonville, and the former Patriot looked completely overwhelmed last week against the Vikings. It doesn't help that Evan Engram is his only fully healthy target, as Christian Kirk has already been ruled out for the year and Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis are playing through injuries. The backfield remains a ball of confusion too, and just as Tank Bigsby seemed to be ascending to the top of the depth chart, he gets hurt and might have given Travis Etienne a chance to re-establish himself. It's all just shuffling around broken deck chairs on the Titanic given the state of the defense, though. The Jags are one of just four teams in the bottom 10 in both third-down defense and red-zone defense (the Bengals, Panthers and Commanders are the other three). They're 27th in points per game allowed, 30th in pressure rate, 31st in yards per play allowed, and 32nd in QB rating against. Nothing's working, and while holding the Vikings to four field goals last week may have felt like a moral victory, I'm not sure they can count on the opposition's quarterback playing through an injury to his throwing hand every week.

Flying high atop the entire NFC at 8-1, the Lions have won seven straight, and last week's victory in Houston was the last time since Week 3 any of them had even been by a single score. Detroit somehow overcame five interceptions by Road Jared Goff to pull it out, but after falling behind 23-7 at the half, the team got back to dominating and won the second half 19-0. Even with last week's stumble, Goff's on pace for a career-best season with a 71.8 percent completion rate and 8.6 YPA. In five games since their bye, the Lions are winning by an average score of about 36-18, and the defense actually leads the NFL in QB rating against thanks to strong showings in TD passes allowed and INTs (tied for second in each). Za'Darius Smith should make his debut for the team this week as well to bolster the Aidan Hutchinson-less pass rush, and the secondary should get safety Ifeatu Melifonwu and corner Emmanuel Moseley off IR pretty soon too. If there's something to worry about with this team, other than how Goff might fare outdoors against the Bears and Niners in Weeks 16 and 17, I'm not seeing it.

Key Info

JAC injuries: QB Trevor Lawrence (out, shoulder), RB Tank Bigsby (out, ankle)
DET injuries: TE Sam LaPorta (out, shoulder)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
JAC DFS targets: none
DET DFS targets: Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, Brock Wright

JAC DFS fades: Mac Jones, Evan Engram
DET DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Etienne jets for 90 yards and a score. Jones throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Jahmyr Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, while David Montgomery adds 70 yards and a TD. Goff throws for 360 yards and four scores, two to Williams (who tops 100 yards) and one each to Wright and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Lions 45-13

Las Vegas (+7.5) at Miami, o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Raiders managed to avoid losing last week, but only because they were on bye. The team has lost five straight, and it's hard to say which side of the ball bears the most responsibility. The offense has been dreadful – the 24 points Vegas put up in Week 10 against Cincy was it second-highest total of the year – thanks to the worst running game in the league and a revolving door at quarterback, plus let's not forget Davante Adams' exit. No team has given the ball away more often than the Raiders, and they've played one less game than about half the league. That unit at least still has Brock Bowers though, and Jakobi Meyers is competent. The defense has Maxx Crosby and, well, that's about it. No team has also taken the ball away less often, and no team has missed more tackles. OC Luke Getsy was the fall guy for the team's 2-7 start, but it could just as easily have been DC Patrick Graham, or really the entire coaching staff from Antonio Pierce on down.

The Dolphins aren't much better at 3-6, but last week's win over the Rams at least offered a modicum of hope. Tua Tagovailoa continues to play fairly well since returning to the lineup, completing 77.7 percent of his passes over the last three games with a 4:1 TD:INT and 7.1 YPA, while the defense committed multiple takeaways for the first time since Week 3. Still, things aren't quite clicking. Tyreek Hill hasn't had a truly monster game since the season opener, and it's somehow been nearly a calendar year since the Dolphins scored at least 30 points in a game (Dec. 17, 2023 – a 30-0 win over the Jets in Week 15). The offensive line is banged up, but that excuse only goes so far. It might be time to consider the possibility that the league has simply figured out Mike McDaniel's scheme, in which case, it's going to be on the defense to lead any kind of miracle run to a postseason berth.

Key Info

LV injuries: QB Aidan O'Connell (IR, thumb)
MIA injuries: EDGE Bradley Chubb (PUP, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LV DFS targets: Jakobi Meyers
MIA DFS targets: De'Von Achane, Odell Beckham, Jonnu Smith

LV DFS fades: Raiders DST
MIA DFS fades: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind

The Scoop

Alexander Mattison leads the LV backfield with 50 yards. Gardner Minshew throws for 200 yards and a touchdown to Bowers. Achane secures 80 yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Tagovailoa throws for 260 yards and a second TD to Smith. Dolphins 24-10

L.A. Rams at New England (+4.5), o/u 43.5 - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

In the four games this season in which Matthew Stafford has attempted 40 or more passes, the Rams are 1-3, and the one win came in overtime. That's not surprising – when you're losing, you usually need to throw more – but the fact that he has just four TD passes in those four games is kind of baffling, especially the goose egg he posted on 46 attempts last week against the Dolphins. Stafford's only had one really good game this season, Week 8 against the Vikings, and in his other eight starts he's got a 5:6 TD:INT. Sure, the injuries to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua haven't helped, but both guys were healthy last week against combined for a 16-178 line on 21 targets. Just no touchdowns. Stafford's 36 years old, so I can't rule out that his skills are simply eroding, but this looks more like a small-sample fluke than anything else. At 4-5, the Rams need it to be – Kyren Williams has gone two straight games without getting into the end zone, and somebody other than Joshua Karty needs to generate points.

The Patriots have won two of their last three games, but it might be more accurate to say two of their last three opponents lost games. The Jets' defense failed to stop Jacoby Brissett from putting together a game-winning drive inside the final three minutes a few weeks ago, and then last week the Bears' offensive line decided to be turnstiles against a pass rush led by the likes of Anfernee Jennings, who had 3.5 career sacks coming into Week 10. New England's still bottom three on the season in points per game and yards per play, and while Drake Maye looks like he'll be just fine in the long run, as a rookie he's got eight total touchdowns (seven passing, one rushing) against seven turnovers (five INTs, two lost fumbles) in his first six NFL games. Rhamondre Stevenson and Hunter Henry are reliable at least, but for the most part this is a roster built more for floor than ceiling, which means the Patriots need the other team to faceplant to really have a shot at winning.

Key Info

LAR injuries: TE Tyler Higbee (PUP, knee)
NE injuries: LB Christian Elliss (questionable, abdomen), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (IR, pectoral), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, ankle) 

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LAR DFS targets: Matthew Stafford, Rams DST
NE DFS targets: none

LAR DFS fades: none
NE DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Williams bangs out 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Nacua and Kupp (who tops 100 yards). Stevenson churns out 70 yards and a score. Maye throws for under 200 yards and gets sacked five times, but does find DeMario Douglas for a TD. Rams 27-20

Cleveland (+1.5) at New Orleans, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

At least the Browns come out of their bye week the healthiest they've been all year. At 2-7, they're a lot closer to being in position to draft a new franchise QB than they are to the playoffs, and the timing could work out – Deshaun Watson has two years left on his awful, awful contract, so Shedeur Sanders or whoever wouldn't necessarily have to take the reins right out of the gate, while still being cheap in 2027 when the front office would finally have the flexibility to build a roster around him. If the offensive line ever regains a semblance of its former form, the Cleveland offense could claw its way back to respectability behind Nick Chubb and Jameis Winston (and apparently Cedric Tillman?), but this is still a team that's scored more than 18 points in a game only once all season, and that has generated 300 yards of offense only twice in nine contests.

The Saints held serve last week at home against the Falcons, as the shorthanded secondary found a way to contain Kirk Cousins when it counted, even though the defense as a whole coughed up 468 total yards. New Orleans is barely hanging on to relevancy at 3-7, but they could play spoiler in the second half. The return of starting center Erik McCoy will help keep Derek Carr upright, and the veteran QB may have found his new deep threat in Marquez Valdes-Scantling (although last week's 3-109-2 line on three targets for MVS screams fluke.) Chris Olave hasn't been ruled out for the year yet after sustaining multiple concussions, but he isn't being counted on to return. That leaves Carr throwing to Juwan Johnson, Taysom Hill and Mason Tipton in addition to Valdes-Scantling, which might just be the worst group of targets in the league. Alvin Kamara at least gives the offense one real threat, as he sets his sights on reaching 2,000 scrimmage yards for the first time in his career – he's currently on pace for 1,931, and it's hard to imagine his workload shrinking given the state of the rest of the roster.

Key Info

CLE injuries: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (IR, neck)
NO injuries: WR Chris Olave (IR, concussion), WR Cedrick Wilson (questionable, shoulder), LB Pete Werner (questionable, hand)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CLE DFS targets: Nick Chubb
NO DFS targets: none

CLE DFS fades: Jerry Jeudy
NO DFS fades: Juwan Johnson

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Chubb breaks out for a season-high 80 yards and a score. Winston throws for 220 yards and hits David Njoku for a TD. Kamara collects 110 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving, while Hill also runs in a score. Carr throws for 250 yards. Saints 27-21

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (+3.5), o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

While the Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen clash later in the afternoon is the marquee matchup of the week, this AFC North battle is probably the game I'm most interested in. The Ravens have scored at least 24 points in eight straight games and gone 7-1 over that stretch, out-pacing a defense that's surrendered 25.0 points and 383.3 total yards a contest over that stretch. From that perspective. adding Diontae Johnson at the trade deadline makes perfect sense – it's better to accentuate your strengths rather than trying to paper over a roster hole. Johnson has barely played in his first two games with Baltimore, but he should be up to speed on the playbook now and itching for some revenge against the team that exiled him to the Panthers in the offseason after deeming him unworthy of a contract extension. The offense still runs through Derrick Henry, though. The 30-year-old has already matched his rushing production from 2023 in seven fewer games, and a 2,000-yard campaign remains on the table, although he's fallen off the pace a bit. He just cracked the top 25 in career yards, and should get into the top 20 by the end of the year (he needs 619 more yards to tie Corey Dillon for 20th). Henry also needs six more TDs to tie Walter Payton for fifth all-time. Of course, it's not like Lamar Jackson's been invisible. The two-time MVP has tossed multiple touchdowns in four straight games and six of the last seven, amassing a stunning 21:1 TD:INT over that stretch to go along with a 70.7 percent completion rate and 9.9 YPA. If the Ravens' defense could get its act together at all, the team would be overwhelming favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. As it is, you have to wonder which QB will be in the best position to take them down in January – in his two meetings with Baltimore this year, Joe Burrow combined for 820 passing yards and nine TDs.

The Steelers have won four straight, three of them since Russell Wilson took over the offense, and they sit a half-game ahead of the Ravens atop the AFC North. Wilson may be overcompensating after two years of being asked to dink and dunk in Denver, as he's completed just 58.8 percent of his passes but has what would be a career-high 8.7 YPA, and his 9.9 intended air yards per attempt would be his best mark since that stat started being measured in 2018 (it's actually 9.91... he hit 9.89 in his final season with the Seahawks in 2021). The addition of Mike Williams paid instant dividends, as his only target last week went for a game-winning, 32-yard score against the Commanders, and George Pickens has broken out for a 14-276-2 line on 21 targets with Wilson under center. There aren't many secondaries easier to attack downfield either, as Baltimore sits 29th in DVOA against deep balls (the Jaguars, Rams and Giants are the bottom three.) Najee Harris has also sprung to life, recording 100-plus yards or a TD, or both, in all four wins. The Pittsburgh defense is also in better shape than that of their division rivals, sitting second in points per game allowed and in the top 10 in takeaways and yards per plays allowed, but they're also benefited from a soft schedule that's seen them catch potentially dangerous offenses like the Falcons and Cowboys at the right time. This will be the first real test of the year for T.J. Watt and company. The Steelers do have history on their side, having won seven of the last eight meetings, but the one Ravens win came at Acrisure Stadium in 2022, when Tyler Huntley led his squad to a 16-14 victory thanks in large part to three Mitchell Trubisky interceptions. (On second thought, maybe we shouldn't read too much into that one.)

Key Info

BAL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
PIT injuries: RB Jaylen Warren (questionable, back), WR Roman Wilson (IR, hamstring), EDGE Alex Highsmith (out, ankle), LB Cole Holcomb (PUP, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BAL DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: George Pickens

BAL DFS fades: none
PIT DFS fades: Najee Harris

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Henry rumbles for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Jackson throws for 340 yards and two TDs, hitting Johnson (who tops 100 yards) and Mark Andrews. Harris manages only 50 yards but does get into the end zone. Wilson throws for 310 yards and three scores, two to Pickens (who tops 100 yards) and one to Darnell Washington, but Justin Tucker adds to his career game-winning FG total. Ravens 34-31 in OT

Minnesota at Tennessee (+6), o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

While it might feel like the Vikings' hot start to the season has completely evaporated, they've actually won two straight and still sit with a 7-2 record. Barely scraping by against the Joe Flacco Colts and Mac Jones Jaguars feels a bit like moral defeats though, if there is such a thing. Sam Darnold is falling back into bad habits and got picked off five times in those two wins, and since Minnesota's bye he's got a 6:6 TD:INT in four contests, albeit with a still-impressive 74.2 percent completion rate and 8.3 YPA. Brian Flores' defense continues to put the hammer down against inferior opponents, though. The Vikes have held three opponents – the Giants and Jags, plus a banged-up Texans squad that was missing Joe Mixon – to seven points or less this season, and three others under 20. They've struggled against real offenses like the Lions, but, well, that shouldn't be a problem this week.

The Titans roll into this one on the heels of Will Levis' best performance of the season... a game in which he only threw for 175 yards, but at least avoided a turnover for the first time in six starts. (He only played 10 snaps in one of those, and still found time for an INT.) They've scored more than 20 points only once all year, and even when Tennessee gains some real estate, it doesn't translate into successful drives. The Titans generated a season-high 416 yards against the Lions in Week 8, and somehow only got 14 points out of it. Tony Pollard's having a good season, and Calvin Ridley's come alive following the DeAndre Hopkins trade, but the team's QB play – whether it's from Levis, or Mason Rudolph – is knee-capping them. At 2-7, they're currently third in the race for the top pick in the 2025 draft, but a decent defense that's held up despite some injuries in the secondary, and a slow pace in general, might see them stumble into a couple more low-scoring wins before the end of the year and ruin their chances. They do still have two games coming up against Jacksonville, after all.

Key Info

MIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
TEN injuries: CB L'Jarius Sneed (out, quadricep)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIN DFS targets: Aaron Jones, Vikings DST
TEN DFS targets: none

MIN DFS fades: none
TEN DFS fades: Will Levis, Tony Pollard/Tyjae Spears, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd

Weather notes: 10-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Jones strikes for 110 scrimmage yards and a TD. Darnold throws for 240 yards and two scores, one each to Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Pollard leads the TEN backfield with 60 yards. Levis throws for under 200 and gets picked off three times, one of which Camryn Bynum returns to the house, but he does find Ridley for a touchdown. Vikings 31-10

Indianapolis (+3.5) at N.Y. Jets, o/u 43.5 - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

After losing three straight games, two with Joe Flacco under center, the Colts are switching back to Anthony Richardson as their starting quarterback. I'm not sure exactly what Richardson could have fixed in two weeks, so this seems a lot more like Indy is conceding a possible wild-card spot in 2024 to try and help along the second-year QB's development. The Colts are 4-6, so they're hardly out of the picture – if the season had ended last week, they would have been the bubble team in the AFC – but they're probably not getting there with Flacco anyway given that he's actually looked his age the last couple weeks, posting a 2:4 TD:INT against tough competition in the Vikings and Bills. Maybe Shane Steichen's plan all along was just to have Richardson duck those matchups to protect his confidence. Jonathan Taylor's been shockingly productive when he's been healthy given the state of the passing game, racking up 267 rushing yards and a 4.9 YPC over that latest losing streak. There's no sugar-coating how unready Richardson has looked for the NFL this year, though. In his six appearances he's completed better than 50 percent of his passes only once.

Full disclosure: last week I played a hunch in one of my deeper leagues (the Scott Fish Bowl) and grabbed Tyrod Taylor, only to cut him loose this week. Per my usual track record, that means this is the week Aaron Rodgers will get hurt. After what now looks like a dead-cat bounce win over the Texans in Week 9, the Jets got thoroughly thumped in Arizona last week, and Rodgers' announcement that he wants to keep playing in 2025 was largely met with a lot of awkward silence and averted gazes. His YPA has declined every season since 2020, bottoming out (hopefully?) at a career-low 6.4 this season, and New York's coaching changes and big trades have done nothing to change the fact that Rodgers looks a bit washed. The Jets have a bye next week, and the time off can only help. Plus, I can only assume he hasn't gotten an enticing offer to join the new administration as press secretary or whatever. I certainly wouldn't rule out Rodgers putting together a huge finish to the season, with Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams and Breece Hall all popping for big numbers, but even that probably wouldn't be enough to get the 3-7 Jets into the playoffs.

Key Info

IND injuries: LB E.J. Speed (questionable, knee)
NYJ injuries: WR Davante Adams (questionable, illness), WR Allen Lazard (IR, chest), K Greg Zuerlein (IR, knee), LB C.J. Mosley (out, neck), S Chuck Clark (IR, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
IND DFS targets: Jonathan Taylor
NYJ DFS targets: Xavier Gipson/Malachi Corley

IND DFS fades: none
NYJ DFS fades: none

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop

Taylor hits for 110 combined yards and two TDs. Richardson throws for under 200 yards but runs in a score of his own. Hall gets held to 50 yards. Rodgers throws for 270 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Wilson (who tops 100 yards), Corley and Tyler Conklin. Jets 24-21

LATE SUNDAY

Atlanta (+2.5) at Denver, o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Good thing the Falcons play in the NFC South, or they might be in trouble. Last week's Younghoe Koo-led flop against the Saints still leaves Atlanta at 6-4, two games up on Tampa Bay and three up on New Orleans and Carolina. (Seriously though, how embarrassing is it to be in a division with the Panthers, and not have effectively eliminated them from contention for the title yet?) Kirk Cousins now has a 9:7 TD:INT in eight games against teams that aren't the Bucs, and the fact that he couldn't get much going against a Saints secondary missing its top three corners (counting the traded Marshon Lattimore, as well as the injured Paulson Adebo and Kool-Aid McKinstry) was more than a little concerning. All year I've been wondering what the Falcons would look like if they'd used the eighth overall pick on Jared Verse, or Quinyon Mitchell, or even Brock Bowers – anyone who's played a meaningful snap this season, really – rather than Michael Penix, but maybe the insurance policy at QB was the right call after all. Bijan Robinson's on pace for over 1,800 scrimmage yards, Drake London and Darnell Mooney are both headed for 1,000-yard campaigns, even Kyle Pitts has been productive more often than not, and yet this is still a team that's failed to score 20 points in four of its 10 contests. Something doesn't add up.

I won't pretend to know what impact it will have in the Broncos' locker room to come so close to handing a hated division rival its first loss of the season, only for this to happen, but I can't imagine it's anything good. Denver's still in a wild-card spot at 5-5, but the team has lost two straight, and none of their wins have come against teams with winning records. Bo Nix at least looks like the real deal, leading what should have been a game-winning drive last week that chewed up the last six minutes of the fourth quarter and kept Patrick Mahomes off the field, which is exactly what you want to do in that scenario. Audric Estime also jumped up to the top of the backfield depth chart and looked... adequate, I guess. He certainly didn't seem to be a clear improvement on Javonte Williams, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry with his longest gain going for just 10 yards, but Estime also didn't seem like a clear downgrade either. Expect Sean Payton to keep searching for a hot hand he can ride. The defense remains mostly pretty good though, holding seven of 10 opponents under 20 points, and that might be enough to get the Broncos to the postseason at something like 9-8, considering their remaining schedule features four more teams that headed into Week 11 with sub-.500 records.

Key Info

ATL injuries: LB Troy Andersen (out, knee)
DEN injuries: WR Josh Reynolds (IR, finger), S Brandon Jones (questionable, abdomen)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
ATL DFS targets: none
DEN DFS targets: none

ATL DFS fades: Kyle Pitts, Falcons DST
DEN DFS fades: Troy Franklin

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Robinson gains 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Cousins throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, one each to London and Mooney. Estime leads the DEN backfield with 70 yards and a TD. Nix throws for under 200 yards and a score to Courtland Sutton while running in a touchdown of his own. Falcons 24-21

Seattle (+6.5) at San Francisco, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Seahawks five of their last six before last week's bye, and while it took this catch from Demarcus Robinson for the Rams to beat them in overtime, it's still a brutal tailspin that may have ended their playoff hopes even if they do pull out of it. The five losses have been by an average score of about 33-21, and the defense has coughed up an average of 420.6 yards in each, so the culprit's pretty clear. Seattle's desperation to fix the unit caused them to cut starting linebacker Tyrel Dodson – still in the top 30 in the league in tackles by the way, and now a Dolphin – after trading for Ernest Jones. Injuries in the secondary have played some role in the collapse, but even getting back players like Rayshawn Jenkins won't solve all the issues. Geno Smith's 11:10 TD:INT is also sketchy, but he gets DK Metcalf back this week and might not feel like he has to do too much if the defense stops getting wrecked all the time.

Christian McCaffrey's season debut last week didn't immediately put the 49ers' offense into high gear, but had Jake Moody not missed three field goals, the final goal would have looked a lot better. Brock Purdy threw for a season-high 353 yards and McCaffrey topped 100 combined yards, and while the Niners are still a half-game back of the Cardinals in the NFC West, their odds of claiming a third straight division title seem good. I'd bump that up to very good, but the banged-up defense is still not quite there. Nick Sorensen's unit hasn't kept an opponent under 20 points since Week 4, and in the game's where the pass defense steps up, as it did in Week 10 against the Bucs, the run defense takes a step back. Time's hasn't quite run out for guys like Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga to return to practice, but the San Francisco defense might not be back in top form until the playoffs, assuming the team makes it.

Key Info

SEA injuries: TE Noah Fant (out, groin), S Rayshawn Jenkins (IR, hand)
SF injuries: TE George Kittle (questionable, hamstring), EDGE Nick Bosa (questionable, hip), LB Dre Greenlaw (PUP, Achilles), CB Charvarius Ward (out, personal), S Talanoa Hufanga (IR, wrist)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
SEA DFS targets: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SF DFS targets: Ricky Pearsall

SEA DFS fades: Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett
SF DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 60-70 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Kenneth Walker picks up 70 yards and a touchdown. Smith throws for 250 yards and two scores, finding Metcalf and Smith-Njigba. McCaffrey piles up 120 scrimmage yards and a TD. Purdy throws for 330 yards and four touchdowns, two to Deebo Samuel (who tops 100 yards) and one each to Kittle and Pearsall. 49ers 38-24

Kansas City (+2.5) at Buffalo, o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Two weeks ago, Kansas City needed an overtime touchdown to beat a depleted Buccaneers team. Last week, it was a last-second blocked field goal against the Broncos. I assume this week it'll be a victory formation fumble by the Bills that turns into a defensive score, or something along those lines, that gets Kansas City to 10-0. This isn't a case of the defending champs simply steamrolling everyone they face. By the numbers, Kansas City is maybe the third or fourth-best team in the AFC – they don't even have the best point differential in their division; that's the Chargers – and might not be in the top five in the league. Still, undefeated is undefeated. Patrick Mahomes has a 6:1 TD:INT and 71.8 percent over the last three games, so the DeAndre Hopkins addition seems to be paying off, and Isiah Pacheco should be back soon. Even if KC gets through this one on, I dunno, the potential game-winning TD pass from Josh Allen hitting a bird in mid-flight and falling for an interception instead or whatever, it seems just a matter of time before they get that first loss. Andy Reid has them focused on the three-peat, and getting the pressure of chasing 1972 off the team's backs might end up being for the best.

On paper, the Bills are one of those better AFC teams. They're 8-2, have their division locked up, and only the Lions have a better point differential. Buffalo's third in points per game and ninth in yards per play, and only the Commanders, Ravens and Niners have produced points on a higher percentage of their drives. The defense has also been opportunistic, and after four takeaways against the Colts last week, they're tied for second in turnovers. During their current five-game win streak, the Bills have held four opponents to 20 points or less, winning by an average score of about 30-17. If there's a worry heading into this one, it's the state of Josh Allen's receiving group. Amari Cooper has missed two straight games, and Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid will both sit this one out. The injuries among the pass-catchers led to Allen failing to throw a TD pass last week for the first time since Week 4, but he still ran one in. The QB scored three TDs on the ground in two meetings with Kansas City last season, and they've given up two rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks already this season, so containing him in the pocket is likely to be a big focus for Steve Spagnuolo's defense.

Key Info

KC injuries: RB Isiah Pacheco (IR, ankle), K Harrison Butker (IR, knee)
BUF injuries: WR Amari Cooper (questionable, wrist), WR Keon Coleman (out, wrist), TE Dalton Kincaid (out, knee), LB Matt Milano (IR, bicep)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
KC DFS targets: none
BUF DFS targets: none

KC DFS fades: none
BUF DFS fades: James Cook

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Kareem Hunt collects 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Mahomes throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Hopkins. Cook leads the BUF backfield with 60 yards. Allen throws for 310 yards and two scores, one each to Dawson Knox and Khalil Shakir, and he runs in two TDs as well. Bills 31-20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Cincinnati (+1.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 47.5
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Far be it for me to second-guess Zac Taylor or Joe Burrow, but on a night when Ja'Marr Chase was having an all-time great performance, deciding to throw to Tanner Hudson on a two-point conversion attempt that might make or break your entire season was definitely a choice. Last week's wild one-point loss to the Ravens leaves the Bengals at 4-6, and while they are only one game back of a wild-card spot – with the Broncos and Colts the teams they are chasing – there's only so many things that can go wrong before it starts to feel like a season gone wrong. Burrow (17:3 TD:INT over the last six games) and Chase (on the receiving end of seven of those TDs while posting a 47-681 line on 63 targets in that time) are doing their best to keep the team afloat, but the defense just isn't there. Baltimore hung 76 points on Cincy between their two meetings. Philly posted 37, and Washington 38. The Bengals' schedule down the stretch has some soft matchups, which will help, but this is an unbalanced squad that will need absolutely heroic efforts from its stars just to stay competitive – and as last week proved, even that isn't enough sometimes.

The Chargers have stomped three straight vulnerable opponents to surge up to 6-3, winning by an average score of about 27-12 as Harbaugh Ball takes root. With Gus Edwards back from IR, the backfield drifted back toward a timeshare to try and keep J.K. Dobbins healthy and effective, and with Justin Herbert over his ankle injury, young wideouts Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston have started to make consistent impacts. On the other side of the ball, the Bolts lead the league in PPG allowed at 13.1 and back it up with top-10 rankings in yards per play allowed, QB rating against and sacks, and top-five showings in third-down defense and red-zone defense. That's all with Joey Bosa only managing 3.0 sacks in 10 games while working through a hip issue. The Chargers might end up being one of those those teams nobody wants to face in the playoffs.

Key Info

CIN injuries: EDGE Trey Hendrickson (questionable, neck)
LAC injuries: EDGE Khalil Mack (questionable, groin)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CIN DFS targets: Tee Higgins
LAC DFS targets: Justin Herbert

CIN DFS fades: none
LAC DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Chase Brown is held to 50 yards. Burrow throws for 320 yards and three scores, one each to Chase, Higgins (who tops 100 yards) and Mike Gesicki. Dobbins leads the LAC backfield with 80 yards and a TD. Herbert throws for 280 yards and three touchdowns, finding Johnston, McConkey and Will Dissly. Chargers 30-27

THURSDAY NIGHT

Washington (+3.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 48.5
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Talk about a tough way to have a winning streak snapped. The Commanders held a 27-21 lead against the Steelers last week for most of the fourth quarter, but an improbable sequence of events capped by an injury to Calvin Austin — putting Pittsburgh deadline acquisition Mike Williams on the field to catch the game-winning TD on his only target of the game — somehow snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Washington's still 7-3, but things seem to be trending in the wrong direction, as the team's last two wins were by just a single score over the lowly Giants and the crumbling Bears. Fortunately, the Commanders' closing schedule is paper-thin aside from their two meetings with the Eagles, so a playoff berth likely isn't in any danger. Jayden Daniels failed to produce a TD last week for the first time in a full game since Week 2, and his measly five rushing yards against the Steelers and a 56.4 percent completion rate over the last three games suggest his ribs are still bothering him. Daniels will get a Week 14 bye, but he'll have to gut it out until then. Terry McLaurin hasn't been affected by his QB's step backward, though. He's recorded 100 yards or a touchdown, or both, in seven of the last eight games, and he missed making it eight straight by just two yards against the Panthers. McLaurin's 39-672-6 line on 54 targets in that stretch is the best surge of his career, as are his 10.8 yards per target on the season, his 14.6 aDOT, 71.2 percent catch rate, 2.29 yards per route run ... to say the fifth-year wideout has clicked with Daniels would be a massive understatement. Dan Quinn still doesn't have the defense where he wants it, and Marshon Lattimore isn't ready to make his debut for the team after being picked up at the deadline, but once Daniels is fully healthy again, the Commanders have shown they're capable of keeping pace with just about anyone.

The Eagles' five-game winning streak is still intact, and it's taken them to the top of the NFC East, a half-game up on the Commanders. That run of success — the average score in the five wins has been about 29-13 — has largely been a product of a schedule that became a lot less imposing than it seemed when it was released, as the Browns, Bengals, Jaguars and Cowboys are all in various ways a shadow of the teams they were expected to be. (No, I'm not going to say the same about the Giants.) Philly's been doing what it needs to, though, and the winning streak has also come with A.J. Brown back in the lineup, forcing defenses to make impossible choices on who to try and slow down between Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts and the passing game, and Jalen Hurts as a runner. This is the most talented group OC Kellen Moore has had in his coaching career, and while his track record suggests he'll get predictable before long, it may not matter. The young secondary has gained some swagger against the likes of Daniel Jones and Cooper Rush, but that confidence could be put to the test quickly Thursday. The Eagles have won five of the last six meetings in this rivalry, but the loss came in Philly, and this Commanders team doesn't seem too bothered by the franchise's past failures.

Key Info

WAS injuries: K Austin Seibert (out, hip)
PHI injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
WAS DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: A.J. Brown

WAS DFS fades: Noah Brown, Zach Ertz
PHI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 5-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

A healthy Brian Robinson leads the WAS backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown, while Austin Ekeler also scored a TD. Daniels throws for 230 yards and a score to McLaurin. Barkley racks up 130 yards and two touchdowns. Hurts throws for 250 yards and two TDs, one each to Brown (who tops 100 yards) and Dallas Goedert. Eagles 31-27

Last week's record: 9-5, 5-9 ATS, 5-9 o/u
2024 record: 95-57, 72-78-2 ATS, 76-76 o/u