NFL Game Previews: Eagles-Cowboys Matchup

Philadelphia (+4) at Dallas, o/u 51.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

I was very down on Jalen Hurts coming into the year, and while his Week 1 performance as a passer was good, it came against the Falcons. He looked more like I expected him to look in Week 2 against the NIners -- sub-60 percent completion rate, sub-200 yards, but doing damage on the ground. The thing is, that might be enough to get Philly to an NFC East title this season, as the offensive line is healthier, DeVonta Smith gives them an actual downfield threat, and the defense seems better. This game should be a good test, as the Cowboys are also in better shape they were in 2020. Sure, Dak Prescott being back is a big part of that, but last week they barely needed him against the Chargers, instead riding Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard and an aggressive, ball-hawking defense to an upset win over the Chargers. That defense is still vulnerable, but getting the Dallas offense more chances via turnovers definitely seems like a good idea. If the Eagles opposition gets caught in between trying to stop the run and the pass, things could go off the rails quickly. The wild card for the Cowboys is Micah Parsons, though. The first-round pick played at linebacker in Week 1 and looked like the team's best defender, then got forced to shift to defensive end last week with DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory both out and he still looked like their best defender, making Justin Herbert's life miserable and coming up with a huge fourth-quarter sack. It's impossible to overstate how impressive that performance was for a guy playing his second NFL game. If Parsons can neutralize Hurts' running, he may not be able to do enough with his arm to keep up with Prescott.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: TE Zach Ertz (questionable, COVID-19), LT Jordan Mailata (questionable, knee), C Jason Kelce (questionable, foot), RG Brandon Brooks (IR, pectoral), DE Brandon Graham (IR, Achilles), DT Fletcher Cox (questionable, illness), S Rodney McLeod (questionable, knee)

DAL injuries: WR Michael Gallup (IR, calf), RT La'el Collins (out, suspension), DE Lawrence (IR, foot), LB Keanu Neal (questionable, COVID-19), S Donovan Wilson (questionable, groin)

PHI DFS targets: Miles Sanders $6,200 DK / $6,100 FD (DAL 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPC allowed in 2020), Jalen Reagor $4,600 DK / $5,400 FD (DAL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), Dallas Goedert $5,100 DK / $5,500 FD (DAL 29th in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

DAL DFS targets: Amari Cooper $6,300 DK / $7,300 FD (PHI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), CeeDee Lamb $6,500 DK / $7,000 FD (PHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

PHI DFS fades: none

DAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: DAL was t-29th in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 50.0 percent; PHI was 26th in red-zone defense at 64.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 DAL, average score 21-20 DAL, average margin of victory 14 points. The home team has won five straight games

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Sanders picks up 110 yards and a touchdown. Hurts throws for 270 yards and two TDs, hitting Smith and Goedert, but a Parsons strip sack also leads to a Leighton Vander Esch score. Elliott hits for 90 yards and a TD. Prescott throws for 300 yards and a touchdown to Lamb (who tops 100 yards) while also running in a score of his own. Cowboys 34-24

Indianapolis (+5.5) at Tennessee, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

It's entirely possible that after this game, the Texans will have a share of the AFC South lead at 1-2. Yikes. The Colts have had a rough start to their season, but the offensive line is gradually getting healthier and given how Carson Wentz has played so far, if he's forced to miss a game or two it may not be a big loss. The key for Indy will be getting Jonathan Taylor going -- the second-year back is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry so far in 2021. The Titans looked like they were cruising for an 0-2 start as well, but then Derrick Henry put the team on his back, again, and trampled the Seahawks into the dirt. They need him to, as the Tennessee defense has picked up right where it left off at the end of last year. Allowing 34 points a game (only Detroit and Atlanta have been worse so far) means that play-action offense needs to be firing on all cylinders just to keep up. Maybe facing a hobbled Wentz, or Brett Hundley and his career 67.6 QB rating in Wentz's place, will help the unit get right.

The Skinny

IND injuries: QB Wentz (questionable, ankles), WR T.Y. Hilton (IR, neck), RT Braden Smith (out, foot)

TEN injuries: TE Anthony Firkser (out, knee), OLB Bud Dupree (questionable, knee), CB Caleb Farley (out, shoulder)

IND DFS targets: Wentz $5,700 DK / $7,000 FD (TEN 30th in passing DVOA, 29th in passing yards per game allowed in 2020), Jack Doyle $3,400 DK / $4,800 FD (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

TEN DFS targets: none

IND DFS fades: Colts DEF $2,700 DK / $3,800 FD (TEN second in giveaways, fourth in points per game in 2020)

TEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: TEN was second in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 75.0 percent; IND was 15th in red-zone defense at 61.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 IND, average score 26-24 IND, average margin of victory 13 points. Five of the last six meetings have been decided by 14 points or more, and the road team has won five straight

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Taylor gains 90 yards and a touchdown. Wentz plays and throws for 260 yards and TDs to Michael Pittman and Doyle. Henry rumbles for 120 yards and two scores. Ryan Tannehill throws for 310 yards and touchdowns to A.J. Brown and Chester Rogers. Titans 34-21

Atlanta (+3) at N.Y. Giants, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The race for the No. 1 draft pick in the 2022 draft could shape up to be the most interesting one of the year. Through two weeks, there are four legit contenders all at 0-2: the Jets, Jaguars, Lions and these Falcons, who look like an absolute mess under Arthur Smith. The offense seems lost, and while Matt Ryan looked a little more like himself last week against the Bucs, the most dangerous skill player at his disposal so far has been 30-year-old journeyman Cordarrelle Patterson. As for the defense... is allowing a league-worst 40 points a game bad? You can't even really blame their schedule, as they got roasted by Jalen Hurts and the Eagles in Week 1. Maybe the best-case scenario for Atlanta at this point is a high pick, and a lot of success for the Rams that encourages some front office to pony up a fortune in future value for Ryan, looking for their own Matthew Stafford. The Giants are also 0-2 but look just a little too competent to get in on that No. 1 pick action. Daniel Jones is doing his best Lamar Jackson impression, and Saquon Barkley might be ready to resume a full workload, but offensive coordinator Jason Garrett has already endeared himself to Kenny Golladay. (Given Garrett's tendencies in Dallas, Golladay probably isn't going to feel any more appreciated once Saquon starts getting the bell cow treatment again.) Still, this is a very winnable game, and a victory will paper over whatever problems the team has. For now.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: WR Russell Gage (out, ankle), CB A.J. Terrell (out, concussion)

NYG injuries: WR Kenny Golladay (questionable, hip), TE Evan Engram (questionable, calf)

ATL DFS targets: Olamide Zaccheaus $3,500 DK / $4,600 FD (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020), Falcons DEF $2,500 DK / $3,500 FD (NYG t-29th in sacks allowed, 31st in points per game in 2020)

NYG DFS targets: none

ATL DFS fades: none

NYG DFS fades: none

Key stat: ATL was 26th in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 53.4 percent; NYG were second in red-zone defense at 50.8 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 70s, 11-12 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mike Davis leads the ATL backfield with 70 yards. Ryan throws for 270 yards and TDs to Calvin Ridley and Tajae Sharpe. Barkley busts out for 110 yards and a score. Jones throws for 260 yards and TDs to Golladay and Darius Slayton. Giants 24-23

L.A. Chargers (+6.5) at Kansas City, o/u 55.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Stop me if you've heard this one before: the Chargers lose a winnable game when their kicker misses a makeable field goal. Mind you, Tristan Vizcaino's shank of a 44-yarder at the end of the first half was far from the team's only issue last week, as the Bolts somehow only managed to score 17 points despite over 400 yards of offense against a Cowboys defense not exactly known as a juggernaut. The pieces are all there for new coach Brandon Staley and OC Joe Lombardi, but it might take a few more games for things to gel. Kansas City also heads into this one at 1-1, but a one-point loss to Baltimore when Lamar Jackson is running wild is a little more excusable. The Big Three of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have all come up big so far, but the offense isn't getting much in the way of secondary contributions, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire's game-costing fumble on K.C.'s final drive has some folks beginning to wonder just how secure his hold on the starting job (not just the football) is. Look for Andy Reid to try and get someone else to pop this week, whether it's a confidence-boosting workload for CEH, or some deep chucks to the likes of Mecole Hardman or Byron Pringle.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: RT Bryan Bulaga (IR, back), OLB Joey Bosa (questionable, foot), CB Chris Harris (out, shoulder)

KC injuries: DE Chris Jones (questionable, wrist)

LAC DFS targets: Austin Ekeler $7,200 DK / $7,000 FD (KC 31st in rushing DVOA, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020)

KC DFS targets: none

LAC DFS fades: none

KC DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC was third in third-down conversions in 2020 at 49.0 percent; LAC were 22nd in third-down defense at 43.6 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 KC, average score 29-23 KC, average margin of victory 10 points. KC is 12-2 in the series since 2014, but both LAC victories during that period have come in Kansas City

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 80s, 13-14 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ekeler piles up 130 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Justin Herbert throws for 320 yards and a second touchdown to Keenan Allen, who tops 100 yards. Edwards-Helaire rebounds with 80 yards and a score. Mahomes throws for 340 yards and three TDs, one each to Hill, Kelce and Hardman. Kansas City 34-24

Cincinnati (+3) at Pittsburgh, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Ben Roethlisberger's pectoral injury earlier this week probably had Steelers fans nervous, but I ran the numbers with Mason Rudolph or Dwayne Haskins under center and there wasn't actually a huge difference (the final score would have been more like 17-13). The fact is, the team will go as far as its defense takes it, and not its 39-year-old QB. The AFC North is a big mess of 1-1 teams right now, so if the Bengals can pull an upset here, it would definitely count as a "statement" game, especially considering their recent history of futility in this rivalry. Joe Burrow hasn't yet started putting up the kind of numbers he did pre-injury, but he looked good in Week 1 before facing a relatively tough Bears defense on the road in Week 2, so it's way too early to start worrying. He'll probably have to make do without Tee Higgins in this one, but that just means more chances for Ja'Marr Chase to extend his TD streak. As for Pittsburgh, it could be Najee Harris time. I remain very down on his long-term prospects and still think he's just an OK back who will see a lot of volume, and the Cincy run defense has looked better in 2021 (holding Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery to identical lines of 20 carries for 61 yards), but with Diontae Johnson sidelined and Roethlisberger potentially not 100 percent, a heavy dose of Harris seems in order.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: WR Tee Higgins (doubtful, shoulder), RG Xavier Su'a-Filo (doubtful, leg), CB Trae Waynes (doubtful, hamstring)

PIT injuries: WR Diontae Johnson (out, knee), IR Stephon Tuitt (IR, undisclosed), OLB T.J. Watt (questionable, groin)

CIN DFS targets: none

PIT DFS targets: Steelers DEF $3,900 DK / $4,800 FD (first in sacks, second in takeaways, third in points per game allowed, CIN 29th in points per game in 2020)

CIN DFS fades: Burrow $5,500 DK / $6,700 FD (PIT first in passing DVOA, third in passing yards per game allowed in 2020), Tyler Boyd $4,700 DK / $5,600 FD (PIT second in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020), C.J. Uzomah $2,700 DK / $4,800 FD (PIT first in DVOA vs. TE in 2020), Bengals DEF $2,100 DK / $3,400 FD (32nd in sacks, PIT first in sacks allowed in 2020)

PIT DFS fades: none

Key stat: CIN was 30th in third-down conversions in 2020 at 36.2 percent; PIT was fifth in third-down defense at 37.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-1 PIT, average score 24-15 PIT, average margin of victory 11 points. CIN's victory in Week 15 of last year was their first since Week 8 of 2015, ending an 11-game losing streak in the series (including one playoff loss)

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, 11-12 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Joe Mixon manages 60 yards. Burrow throws for 260 yards but gets picked off twice, one of which Devin Bush returns to the house. Harris dashes for 100 yards and a TD. Roethlisberger throws for 270 yards and a score to James Washington. Steelers 24-9

Chicago (+7) at Cleveland, o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Justin Fields will make his first NFL start Sunday, but for now Matt Nagy is insisting Andy Dalton will resume starting duties once he's healthy. Of course, he has to say that, but Dalton's performance so far (73.5 percent completion rate but only 5.3 yards per attempt) doesn't exactly set a high bar for the rookie to clear. On the other hand, Fields didn't clear it in relief of Dalton last week, so while his running ability gives the Bears' offense another dimension and he is future for the franchise, if he sputters here, I wonder if Nagy will be tempted to give Nick Foles another chance. Shaky starts for the Packers and Vikings make the NFC North look very winnable, and Nagy has to know he's on the hot seat and can't afford to ride out too many dips in Fields' development. Over in Cleveland, the Browns lost a game against Kansas City they could have won and then couldn't put away the Texans decisively, so they're still trying to get their feet under them. Kevin Stefanski is fully committed to a smashmouth game plan that relies on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to carry the offensive load, so swapping Jarvis Landry out for Odell Beckham may not matter that much in the grand scheme of things, but the defense hasn't exactly held up their end of that bargain yet. If Fields doesn't look ready for prime time the unit has the talent on paper to take advantage, but if a short-handed linebacking corps can't keep him in the pocket, it could be a long day.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: QB Andy Dalton (out, knee), RB Tarik Cohen (out, knee), WR Darnell Mooney (questionable, groin), WR Marquise Goodwin (questionable, ankle), DE Akiem Hicks (questionable, illness), DT Eddie Goldman (questionable, knee), S Tashaun Gipson (doubtful, hamstring), S Eddie Jackson (questionable, toe)

CLE injuries: WR Jarvis Landry (IR, knee), LT Jedrick Wills (questionable, ankle), C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), LB Anthony Walker (IR, hamstring)

CHI DFS targets: Goodwin $3,200 DK / $4,700 FD (CLE 30th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

CLE DFS targets: Anthony Schwartz $3,200 DK / $4,800 FD (CHI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

CHI DFS fades: none

CLE DFS fades: Hunt $5,600 DK / $5,600 FD (CHI t-2nd in rushing TD allowed, second in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020), Odell Beckham $5,300 DK / $6,500 FD (CHI second in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

Key stat: CLE was third in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 73.6 percent; CHI was fifth in red-zone defense at 54.7 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, 14-15 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Montgomery bangs out 80 yards and a touchdown. Fields has his moments, throwing for 240 yards and a TD to Cole Kmet while running for 60 yards, but he also gets picked off twice. Chubb runs for 90 yards and two scores, while Hunt adds 60 combined yards. Baker Mayfield throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting Schwartz and (rolls dice for tight end) Harrison Bryant. Browns 31-20

Baltimore at Detroit (+8.5), o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The media went gaga over Lamar Jackson finally vanquishing his Kansas City nemesis last week, but c'mon now, he'd only faced them three times previously, all in regular-season games that didn't end up meaning a whole lot. But OK, fine, now he's 1-3 against them. Huzzah! He's off to another fantastic start on the ground and a good one through the air -- throwing for more than 230 yards in back-to-back games may not seem like much in the modern era, but Jackson hadn't done it within one season since Weeks 3 and 4 of 2019. (He actually did it four straight weeks to begin that MVP campaign, which bodes well.) The new-look backfield seems to be settling in as well, with Ty'Son Williams and Latavius Murray filling the top two spots and Devonta Freeman spotting in now and then. Pretty much any of those guys could go off against the Lions, who are allowing 38 points a game and frankly, I probably would have guessed higher before checking. The offense doesn't scare anyone either -- D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson, who looks like he's about to join the Darren Waller tier if not quite the Travis Kelce tier among tight ends, are solid building blocks, but Jared Goff is posting fairly pedestrian numbers despite attempting nearly 50 passes a game. There's no reason to think that volume is going away any time soon, but even if Matthew Stafford were still around, there's only so much a QB can do with the league's worst receiving corps.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: QB Jackson (questionable, illness), WR Marquise Brown (questionable, ankle), WR Rashod Bateman (IR, groin), LT Ronnie Stanley (out, ankle), OLB Justin Houston (out, COVID-19), CB Jimmy Smith (questionable, ankle), S DeShon Elliott (questionable, concussion)

DET injuries: RB Swift (questionable, groin), WR Tyrell Williams (IR, concussion), WR Kalif Raymond (questionable, thigh), LT Taylor Decker (IR, finger), K Austin Seibert (out, COVID-19), DE Michael Brockers (questionable, shoulder), OLB Romeo Okwara (questionable, shoulder)

BAL DFS targets: Jackson $7,800 DK / $8,400 FD (DET 32nd in passing DVOA, 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed, 32nd in passing TD% allowed in 2020), Brown $5,600 DK / $6,600 FD (DET 30th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

DET DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: none

DET DFS fades: Quintez Cephus $3,900 DK / $5,300 FD (CHI third in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Amon-Ra St. Brown $3,300 DK / $5,000 FD (BAL fifth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020), Lions DEF $2,000 DK / $3,000 FD (31st in takeaways, 32nd in points per game allowed in 2020)

Key stat: BAL was fourth in third-down conversions in 2020 at 48.8 percent; DET was 28th in third-down defense at 47.2 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Williams leads the BAL backfield with 80 yards and a TD, while Murray adds 70 yards. Jackson throws for 240 yards and a score to Brown while running for 60 yards and a touchdown of his own. Swift manages 50 yards and a score. Goff throws for 280 yards and a touchdown to Hockenson but gets picked off twice. Ravens 30-17

New Orleans (+3) at New England, o/u 42.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

I'm prepared to give Jameis Winston a mulligan for last week. The circumstances of the game, and all the COVID-19 absences among the coaching staff, must have made normal preparations almost impossible so it's no wonder he fell back into bad habits. Most of those assistants were cleared to return this week, so the Saints shouldn't be quite so out of sorts. Of course, if Winston still end up heaving balls downfield with only the vaguest idea where they're going, then it'll be a little fairer to admit that's just who he is. Mac Jones hasn't had that problem through his first two NFL starts -- a 73.9 percent completion rate and zero INTs is a heck of a way to begin a career, even if he only has one TD and hasn't attacked downfield too much. That will likely be the Patriots' game plan for the foreseeable future -- let Jones be a game-manager and pull out victories through defense and the running game. Damien Harris has looked capable enough in the latter area, while the New England defense has held two straight opponents to 17 points or less. (Well, one NFL opponent and the Jets, anyway). That formula might just be good enough to keep them in the hunt for an AFC East title in a three-way race.

The Skinny

NO injuries: WR Michael Thomas (out, ankle/COVID-19), WR Tre'Quan Smith (IR, hamstring), C Erik McCoy (out, calf), K Wil Lutz (IR, abdomen)

NE injuries: RT Trent Brown (questionable, calf), CB Stephon Gilmore (out, quadriceps)

NO DFS targets: Alvin Kamara $8,200 DK / $8,000 FD (NE 32nd in rushing DVOA in 2020)

NE DFS targets: none

NO DFS fades: none

NE DFS fades: Jones $5,100 DK / $6,500 FD (NO third in passing DVOA in 2020), Harris $5,600 DK / $6,200 FD (NO second in rushing DVOA, fourth in YPC allowed, t-2nd in rushing TDs allowed in 2020), Jonnu Smith $4,100 DK / $5,200 FD and Hunter Henry $3,700 DK / $5,000 FD (NO second in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

Key stat: NO was fifth in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 72.1 percent; NE was 27th in red-zone defense at 65.3 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kamara pops for 110 scrimmage yards and a receiving score. Winston throws for 240 yards and a TD to Deonte Harris, but he does lose a fumble that results in a Matthew Judon touchdown. Harris grinds out 60 yards. Jones throws for 250 yards and a TD to Nelson Agholor. Saints 17-14

Arizona at Jacksonville (+7), o/u 52.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Cards are flying high to begin the season -- only the Bucs have scored more points so far, and that includes the two teams that played Thursday in Week 3 -- but in a very tough NFC West, they can't afford to slow down. Kyler Murray is making a strong early MVP case, and while A.J. Green hasn't been anything more than a decoy so far, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore and Maxx Williams (wait, really?) have given the third-year QB more than enough firepower. If the pass rush can keep getting pressure and prevent the secondary from being expose too often, Kliff Kingsbury night just have something here. As for the Jags, well, the theme song to this season might be Ain't No Sunshine 'til Urban's Gone. Trevor Lawrence has looked more than a little lost, and while I expect him to eventually find his footing and be a good volume play later in the season given the talent Jacksonville has at wide receiver and how bad the defense is, this team doesn't look like it's going to be winning a game any time soon. If you want to circle dates on your calendar, Week 12 at home against Atlanta and Week 16 on the road against the Jets could well be the games that determine the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: WR DeAndre Hopkins (questionable, ribs), RT Kelvin Beachum (questionable, ribs), CB Byron Murphy (questionable, ankle)

JAC injuries: CB CJ Henderson (questionable, groin), CB Tre Herndon (questionable, knee)

ARI DFS targets: Murray $8,300 DK / $9,000 FD (JAC 31st in passing DVOA, 31st in YPA allowed, 30th in passing TD% allowed in 2020), Williams $3,200 DK / $4,700 FD (JAC 30th in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

JAC DFS targets: none

ARI DFS fades: none

JAC DFS fades: Jaguars DEF $2,000 DK / $3,100 FD (31st in sacks, 31st in points per game allowed in 2020)

Key stat: JAC was 16th in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 60.0 percent; ARI was third in red-zone defense at 51.8 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Chase Edmonds leads the ARI backfield with 70 yards, while James Conner adds 50. Murray throws for 290 yards and two TDs, finding Hopkins and Moore, while running in a score himself. James Robinson collects 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD. Lawrence throws for 270 yards and a second touchdown to Marvin Jones. Cardinals 27-17

Washington (+8) at Buffalo, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Is Taylor Heinicke the answer for Washington under center? I'm still not quite convinced, but between that playoff game against the Bucs and last week's impressive effort in a win over the Giants, I can't rule out him turning out to be the next Tony Romo. This week should provide a tougher test, but Henicke's got solid talent around him in Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson and Logan Thomas, and the Chase Young-led defense should keep the QB from being asked to do too much every week. As for the home squad, Buffalo got over that head-scratching loss to Pittsburgh in Week 1 pretty quickly. The most surprising development in the early going for the Bills has been emergence of Devin Singletary as a credible No. 1 running back. Zack Moss did vulture a couple TDs from him, and Josh Allen looms in the background having yet to run in a touchdown this year, but Singletary's 6.4 yards per carry against two supposedly stout defenses is hard to ignore. If he continues to force the opposition to keep more guys in the box, that would just open up more real estate for Allen and Stefon Diggs to do their thing. Or maybe defenses are daring the Bills to run, but if that's the case the strategy isn't working out too well so far.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (IR, hip), WR Curtis Samuel (IR, groin)

BUF injuries: CB Levi Wallace (questionable, knee)

WAS DFS targets: none

BUF DFS targets: Bills DEF $3,800 DK / $4,100 FD (t-3rd in takeaways, WAS t-29th in sacks allowed in 2020)

WAS DFS fades: Dyami Brown $3,600 DK / $4,800 FD (BUF third in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), Adam Humphries $3,700 DK / $4,900 FD (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

BUF DFS fades: Josh Allen $7,000 DK / $8,000 FD (WAS second in passing DVOA, second in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed in 2020), Emmanuel Sanders $4,200 DK / $5,200 FD (WAS second in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), Cole Beasley $4,800 DK / $5,400 FD (WAS third in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

Key stat: BUF was first in third-down conversions in 2020 at 49.7 percent; WAS was sixth in third-down defense at 37.5 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 50s, 13-14 mph wind, 15-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Gibson picks up 80 yards and a TD. Heinicke crashes back to earth, throwing for 240 yards and getting picked off twice. Singletary piles up 90 yards and a score. Allen throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, both to Diggs (who tops 100 yards). Bills 24-13

N.Y. Jets (+10.5) at Denver, o/u 41.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

I mean, sure, the Jets have looked like maybe the worst team in the league so far, but I'm not writing off Robert Saleh as a terrible coach just yet. It's going to take time to climb out of the smoking crater Adam Gase left behind. Zach Wilson got Belichicked last week, and his opening matchup against the Panthers was no walk in the park either, but his schedule starts brightening up in Week 4 against the Titans assuming his confidence isn't already shot by then. This could be Michael Carter's chance to establish himself as the top backfield option for Saleh as well -- Tevin Coleman's out of action, and Ty Johnson's been nothing special. The Broncos' haven't had any tough tests yet on their way to 3-0... sorry, jumping the gun there, I mean 2-0, but they'd better take advantage of a soft schedule while they have it with the Ravens, Steelers, Raiders and Browns waiting over the next month. Teddy Bridgewater has been shockingly aggressive so far -- his 8.5 yards per attempt is almost a full yard better than his numbers with Carolina last year -- so maybe the issue really was Drew Lock all along. Then again, he has only faced the Jags and Giants. The same pattern holds true for Denver's defense. It has talent on paper and has posted outstanding numbers through two weeks, but let's see how it does against real competition.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: RB Tevin Coleman (out, illness), WR Jamison Crowder (doubtful, groin), LT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee)

DEN injuries: WR Jerry Jeudy (IR, ankle), RG Graham Glasgow (questionable, illness), OLB Bradley Chubb (IR, ankle)

NYJ DFS targets: none

DEN DFS targets: Tim Patrick $4,900 DK / $5,900 FD (NYJ 29th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

NYJ DFS fades: none

DEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYJ were 32nd in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 42.1 percent; DEN was first in red-zone defense at 47.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 80s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Carter puts together 70 combined yards and a TD. Wilson throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Elijah Moore but gets picked off twice, one of which Patrick Surtain returns for a score. Javonte Williams leads the DEN backfield with 90 yards and a touchdown, while Melvin Gordon adds 70 yards and a score as well. Bridgewater doesn't need to do too much, throwing for 250 yards and a TD to Courtland Sutton. Broncos 31-17

Miami (+4) at Las Vegas, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Oof. You can write off the Dolphins' no-show last week on the loss of Tua Tagovailoa, but they were being outclassed by the Bills long before Tua got hurt. Where's Ryan Fitzpatrick when you need him? Instead, the task of getting the offense going will fall on Jacoby Brissett's shoulders, and while he's a decent enough backup, he's not the kind of guy to kick-start a struggling passing attack. That means for Miami to have a chance at an upset, their big-bucks secondary is going to need to earn their salaries. That'll be easier said than done against the red-hot Derek Carr, though. He's averaging better than 400 passing yards a game at an 8.8 yards per attempt clip despite nicking up his ankle last week, and while that pace isn't sustainable, it can't be ignored that he did it against the Ravens and Steelers and not a couple bottom-feeder defenses. The Raiders haven't even really noticed the absence of Josh Jacobs, and if they did have to keep the ball on the ground more often, Kenyan Drake would probably be fine in that role. The AFC West doesn't look like it has any weak links this year, so every win Vegas can bank before they start running that divisional gauntlet, the better.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: QB Tagovailoa (out, ribs)

LV injuries: RB Josh Jacobs (doubtful, ankle), LG Richie Incognito (out, calf)

MIA DFS targets: DeVante Parker $5,400 DK / $5,700 FD (LV 29th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

LV DFS targets: none

MIA DFS fades: none

LV DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIA was 27th in third-down conversions in 2020 at 38.6 percent; LV was 30th in third-down defense at 48.8 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Myles Gaskin cobbles together 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Brissett throws for 230 yards and a TD to Parker. Drake racks up 100 combined yards and a receiving touchdown, while Peyton Barber vultures one on the ground. Carr throws for 290 yards and a second TD to Darren Waller. Raiders 27-20

Seattle at Minnesota (+1.5), o/u 55.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

It's hard to find too much fault in the Seahawks' loss last week -- yes, they had the lead, but stronger defenses than theirs have buckled under that Derrick Henry sledgehammer. They face a similar opponent this week in the Vikings, a team with an elite running back, a strong passing attack and apparently only a vague acquaintance with the notion of playing defense, so it's probably time for more cooking lessons from Russell Wilson. His numbers through two weeks, including an 11.1 YPA, are fairly absurd, and what should terrify opposition secondaries is that DK Metcalf hasn't gotten going yet, as Tyler Lockett has done most of the work. As for Minnesota, that all-offense approach has to have Mike Zimmer chewing his clipboard in frustration even more than their 0-2 start. The Vikes will want this win in the worst way, but asking Kirk Cousins to out-sling Wilson may not work out. Until Anthony Barr gets healthy though -- heck, even after he does -- it might be the only chance they have.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: C Ethan Pocic (IR, knee), RT Brandon Shell (out, ankle)

MIN injuries: RB Dalvin Cook (questionable, ankle), LT Christian Darrisaw (out, groin), LB Barr (out, knee)

SEA DFS targets: Metcalf $7,300 DK / $7,200 FD (MIN 28th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

MIN DFS targets: Cook $8,400 DK / $9,500 FD (SEA 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020)

SEA DFS fades: none

MIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA was fourth in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 73.2 percent; MIN was 11th in red-zone defense at 58.6 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Chris Carson bangs out 80 yards and a score. Wilson throws for 330 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Metcalf (who tops 100 yards) twice and Freddie Swain once. Cook responds with 140 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Cousins throws for 320 yards and a second touchdown to K.J. Osborn, while Justin Jefferson tops 100 yards. Seahawks 34-33

Tampa Bay at L.A. Rams (+1), o/u 55.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The week's marquee-iest matchup (there are a few candidates) is a possible NFC title game clash between the defending champs and the Hollywood heroes. Tom Brady is just... I mean, what do you even say any more. This should be a tough battle for him, but he's just as likely to throw for 400 yards and four TDs as get shut down. Dude's on pace to post a touchdown total this season higher than his age, and he's freaking 44. Gosh though, he won't have Antonio Brown this week, so he's down to only three Hall of Fame talents to target. Whatever will he do. The Rams will counter with Matthew Stafford, who so far has looked like as big an upgrade on Jared Goff as Brady was on Jameis Winston for Tampa. The instant chemistry he's shown with Cooper Kupp has been impressive, but Darrell Henderson has predictably started to break down under a starting workload, so we might see a lot of Sony Michel in this one. It's really going to come down to whether Aaron Donald and the defense can slow Brady down even a little, though.

The Skinny

TB injuries: WR Brown (out, COVID-19), OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (out, shoulder), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (IR, elbow)

LAR injuries: RB Darrell Henderson (questionable, ribs)

TB DFS targets: none

LAR DFS targets: Tyler Higbee $4,000 DK / $5,500 FD (TB 25th in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

TB DFS fades: Brady $6,800 DK / $7,800 FD (LAR fourth in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, first in passing TD% allowed in 2020)

LAR DFS fades: Henderson $5,900 DK / $6,300 FD (TB first in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed, first in rushing TDs allowed in 2020), Van Jefferson $3,400 DK / $4,900 FD (TB first in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

Key stat: TB was 11th in third-down conversions in 2020 at 43.5 percent; LAR were third in third-down defense at 35.4 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Leonard Fournette leads the TB backfield with 60 yards, while Ronald Jones manages 40. Brady throws for 260 yards and TDs to Mike Evans and Tyler Johnson. Michel leads the LAR backfield with 50 yards, while Henderson plays but sees limited snaps. Stafford throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, finding Kupp, Higbee and Robert Woods. Rams 27-23

Green Bay (+3.5) at San Francisco, o/u 49.5
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

Nice of the Packers to spot the rest of the league six quarters before starting their season. After a total no-show in Week 1, Aaron Rodgers and his crew somehow found themselves trailing Detroit (!!!) at the half last week before flipping the switch, with Aaron Jones leading the charge. Now, does that mean they're finally in gear, or does that mean every week is going to be a guessing game where no one knows if or when they're going to hit the gas? I have no idea. I'm still not entirely dismissing the conspiracy theory that Rodgers only returned because he was so pissed off at the Packers front office he wanted to sabotage their season. He seems exactly that petty. Even a lackluster effort from Rodgers might be enough this week though, against a Niners squad losing running backs at a rate that's making even the Ravens feel sympathy for them. Raheem Mostert's already gone for the year, Week 1 breakout Elijah Mitchell is dealing with a shoulder issue, and JaMycal Hasty is limping. Since Trey Sermon got a concussion on his first NFL carry last week after I defended him, I'm making no predictions about who might come up big for San Francisco this week, but Sermon does seem poised to start. The team is 2-0 thanks to a strong start by Jimmy Garoppolo, a sprinkling of Trey Lance and Deebo Samuel looking like a superstar, but the defense is having the same kind of injury luck it did in 2020 and wins over the Lions and Eagles don't suggest the Niners have really been tested yet.

The Skinny

GB injuries: LT David Bakhtiari (out, knee), LT Elgton Jenkins (doubtful, ankle), OLB Za'Darius Smith (IR, back)

SF injuries: RB Elijah Mitchell (doubtful, shoulder), RB JaMycal Hasty (out, ankle), RB Jeff Wilson (out, knee), DE Arik Armstead (questionable, abdomen), DT Javon Kinlaw (questionable, knee), LB Dre Greenlaw (IR, groin), CB Emmanuel Moseley (questionable, knee)

GB DFS targets: none

SF DFS targets: Trey Sermon $4,600 DK / $5,400 FD (GB 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020)

GB DFS fades: Davante Adams $8,300 DK / $8,200 FD (SF first in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Robert Tonyan $4,400 DK / $5,300 FD (SF third in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

SF DFS fades: Trent Sherfield $3,300 DK / $4,800 FD (GB sixth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020), 49ers DEF $3,000 DK / $4,200 FD (GB first in giveaways, first in points per game in 2020)

Key stat: SF was t-23rd in third-down conversions in 2020 at 39.1 percent; GB was t-10th in third-down defense at 39.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jones racks up 110 combined yards and a score, while AJ Dillon bangs in a short TD. Rodgers throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Randall Cobb. Sermon impresses with 100 yards and a touchdown. Garoppolo throws for 270 yards and a TD to Brandon Aiyuk. Packers 34-23

Carolina at Houston (+8), o/u 43.0 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

Week 3 is always the one I dread the most. We don't yet have enough stats from the current season to draw any real conclusions, but relying on stats from 2020 to paint an accurate portrait of current rosters and coach tendencies is even more a fool's errand than it was to open the campaign. Still, I gotta use something. Just to further jinx myself, I took a look and haven't been below .500 against the spread in a Week 3 since 2017. Hmm, maybe Vegas is just as lost as I am this time of year. Anyway, this feels like a trap game for the Panthers, who have looked good in wins over the Jets and Saints and now get Davis Mills under center for the Texans instead of poor, cursed Tyrod Taylor. Good on Matt Rhule for even getting his team to the point that we can talk about them having trap games, though. The problem is, on paper (see disclaimer above) Carolina's skill players should absolutely tear up Houston's defense, even before you get to what the defense might do to Mills. Houston coach David Culley looks like he plans to use a run-heavy approach to try and protect his young QB — when Nico Collins was placed on IR, the team brought up a blocking tight end from the practice squad rather than a replacement wideout. Maybe that's enough to keep the game close and slow-placed, or maybe Thursdays are just gonna Thursday.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: LG Pat Elflein (IR, hamstring)

HOU injuries: QB Taylor (IR, hamstring), WR Danny Amendola (doubtful, thigh), WR Collins (IR, shoulder), K Ka'imi Fairbairn (IR, leg), CB Terrance Mitchell (questionable, concussion), S Justin Reid (questionable, knee)

CAR DFS targets: Sam Darnold $5,900 DK / $7,100 FD (HOU 29th in passing DVOA, 29th in YPA allowed in 2020), Christian McCaffrey $9,000 DK / $10,500 FD (HOU 29th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed in 2020), DJ Moore $5,900 DK / $7,200 FD (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Robby Anderson $5,700 DK / $6,100 FD (HOU 30th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), Dan Arnold $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

HOU DFS targets: David Johnson $5,000 DK / $5,300 FD (CAR 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020)

CAR DFS fades: none

HOU DFS fades: Texans DEF $2,300 DK / $3,400 FD (27th in points allowed, 32nd in takeaways in 2020)

Key stat: CAR was 25th in third-down conversions in 2020 at 39.0 percent; HOU was 29th in third-down defense at 47.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: McCaffrey zips for 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Darnold throws for 270 yards and a TD to Arnold, but he also tosses a pick-six to Christian Kirksey. Johnson leads the HOU backfield with 80 scrimmage yards, while Phillip Lindsay adds 50 yards and Mark Ingram punches in a short TD. Mills throws for 210 yards and a score to Andre Roberts but gets picked off twice. Panthers 23-21

Last week's record: 9-7, 7-9 ATS, 8-8 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 20-12, 15-17 ATS, 18-14 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1134-684-6, 874-884-66 ATS, 628-658-26 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)