NFL Game Previews: Dolphins-Rams Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

Miami (+1.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 50.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Getting Tua Tagovailoa back has had the expected impact on the Dolphins' offense. Miami's scored 27 points in back-to-back games, with Tua throwing three TDs and De'Von Achane scoring three while topping 100 scrimmage yards in each contest. Raheem Mostert woke up, Tyreek Hill's had three receptions of 20-plus yards, even Jonnu Smith's stayed busy. The problem is, the defense has also coughed up more than 27 in each of those games. The Dolphins are now 2-6, with their season hanging by a thread. There really isn't much of a solution to be found, either, other than simply out-scoring the opposition. The secondary and pass rush are both dealing with multiple injuries, and the trade deadline didn't bring reinforcements. The last time Mike McDaniel's offense produced 30-plus points was Week 15 of last season, but that might need to become the team's baseline again if the Dolphins have any hope of clawing their way into the wild-card picture.

I'm not calling them a team of destiny or anything, but between last week's OT win over the Seahawks and the earlier game they stole from the 49ers in Week 3, the Rams are displaying some cockroach-like tendencies. Even when you think they are truly squished, they turn out to be just playing possum. Matthew Stafford had three total touchdown passes in his first six games, but now that his star wideout duo is healthy again, he's got a 6:2 TD:INT the last two weeks. Surprisingly, though, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua only have one of those scores. Instead, it's been Demarcus Robinson on the end of four of them, including the OT winner in Seattle and the last two against Minnesota. Kyren Williams also got held out of the end zone last week for the first time in 2024, but he's still drawing a massive workload, topping 20 carries in four consecutive games. Only Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry have more touches this season than Williams. The Rams' defense has also gotten opportunistic, generating three or more takeaways twice in three games since the team's bye, and while the unit will probably never be great at preventing yardage, it's also second in pressure rate on the season. Even if Byron Young and company aren't racking up sacks, they're forcing mistakes, and that might be good enough for a playoff berth.

Key Info

MIA injuries: WR Tyreek Hill (questionable, wrist), EDGE Bradley Chubb (PUP, knee)
LAR injuries: WR Demarcus Robinson (questionable, toe), TE Tyler Higbee (PUP, knee), LB Troy Reeder (IR, hamstring), S Kamren Curl (questionable, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIA DFS targets: De'Von Achane
LAR DFS targets: Puka Nacua

MIA DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Achane leads the MIA backfield with 80 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown. Tagovailoa throws for 240 yards and a second TD to Jaylen Waddle. Williams gets held to 70 yards. Stafford throws for 290 yards and three scores, two to Nacua (who tops 100 yards) and one to Davis Allen. A Jared Verse fumble recovery touchdown puts the game away. Rams 31-23

SUNDAY A.M.

N.Y. Giants versus Carolina (+6.5) in Munich, o/u 40.5
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EST

There's nothing like a clash between 2-7 teams to really showcase the sport in another country. The Giants, at least, are the better terrible team on paper. Four of their losses have been by a single score, including the last two against playoff teams in the Commanders and Steelers. Daniel Jones even threw a TD pass at home last week, the first time he'd accomplished that feat since... Week 17 of the 2022 season. Seriously. Brian Daboll is stacking up votes of confidence like turtles to support his QB, but Jones' job is very clearly in jeopardy, if only so the Giants don't get stuck with extra guaranteed money on his remaining contract should he gets hurt again. His precarious spot may not be doing Malik Nabers any favors either. In terms of yards per target, the rookie wideout's three worst games have been his last three, and despite big volume Nabers hasn't caught a touchdown or topped 71 yards since he returned from his concussion. If Jones is feeling the pressure and playing to avoid mistakes rather than just slinging it, Nabers will have trouble producing the kind of numbers we've already seen him deliver. A looming Week 11 bye might be the opportune time for a switch at QB, but it's not like Drew Lock offers more upside. It might also be an opportune time for a coaching change, especially if Big Blue somehow blows this one.

It would be kind of perfect if the Panthers cost other teams' coaches their job in consecutive weeks, now that I think about it. Carolina's upset of New Orleans last week got Dennis Allen sacked, but it also might have contributed to the somewhat inexplicable four-year contract extension Chuba Hubbard just got, what with him scoring the game-winning TD inside the final three minutes of the fourth quarter and all. Did the Panthers forget that they just used a second-round pick on Jonathon Brooks? I suppose the idea could be that Hubbard will still be tradeable after Brooks proves himself, but that's something he may not get a chance to begin doing until after the team's Week 11 bye. Bryce Young remains under center, and since returning to the starting lineup the 2023 first overall pick has a 3:3 TD:INT, 63.5 percent completion rate and 6.3 YPA against two pretty solid pass defenses. The Panthers' defense remains awful and hasn't given up fewer 22 points in a game all year, and five straight opponents have rung up 400-plus yards of offense against them. That's a figure the Giants have only gotten to once (Week 5 against the Seahawks) in 2024, but the Bears and Broncos hadn't hit 400 at all until they faced the Panthers.

Key Info

NYG injuries: WR Darius Slayton (questionable, concussion), TE Theo Johnson (questionable, knee), K Graham Gano (IR, hamstring), EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (IR, wrist)
CAR injuries: WR Adam Thielen (IR, hamstring), EDGE D.J. Wonnum (PUP, quadriceps), S Jordan Fuller (IR, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NYG DFS targets: Daniel Jones, Tyrone Tracy, Theo Johnson
CAR DFS targets: Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker

NYG DFS fades: none
CAR DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Tracy rips off 100 scrimmage yards and a TD. Jones throws for 310 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Nabers (whop tops 100 yards) and Chris Manhertz. Hubbard gains 70 yards and score. Young throws for under 200 yards but does find Legette for a TD. Giants 27-14

EARLY SUNDAY

New England (+6.5) at Chicago, o/u 39.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The worst part about last week's loss to the Titans was that this play by Drake Maye went for nothing. Sure, he also committed three turnovers and had just a 5.0 YPA on the day, but the rookie QB could end up being something special. Or at least consistently watchable. The offense overall remains rough, even with Maye under center, and the Patriots haven't reached even 300 yards of offense in a game since Week 2, and have produced at least 20 points only three times in nine games. Fun fact: no New England player has more than one TD reception yet this season. The defense is buckling too, allowing 28.8 points and 367 yards a game over the last four weeks, and at the moment, based on strength of schedule, the Pats are headed for the first overall pick in the 2025 draft. Given that there's an incredible nine teams tied with two wins though, they've got a lot of work to do to lock down that draft slot.

The Bears have lost two straight by a combined score of 47-24, as all the progress Caleb Williams seemed to be making prior to the team's Week 7 bye seems to have evaporated. The 2024 first overall pick (two spots ahead of Maye) has completed an Anthony Richardson-like 49.2 percent of his passes with zero TDs over those two losses, although he at least hasn't thrown an INT either. It's not like he was facing tough opposition either – the Commanders (28th) and Cardinals (20th) are both in the bottom half of the league in QB rating against. It's not like Williams has a poor supporting cast. D'Andre Swift is averaging 123 scrimmage yards over the last five games, while DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet have combined for five performances with either 100 yards or multiple TDs during that time. The Chicago run defense might also be a problem, getting gashed by Washington and especially Arizona and now losing Andrew Billings to a pectoral injury. If the Bears blow this one, that'll probably be the reason why.

Key Info

NE injuries: LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (IR, pectoral), LB Christian Elliss (questionable, abdomen), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, ankle)
CHI injuries: S Jaquan Brisker (questionable, concussion)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NE DFS targets: Rhamondre Stevenson
CHI DFS targets: Caleb Williams, Bears DST

NE DFS fades: DeMario Douglas
CHI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 30-40 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Stevenson churns out 70 yards and a score. Maye throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Swift picks up 90 yards and a touchdown. Williams throws for 280 yards and three TDs, two to Moore (who tops 100 yards) and one to Kmet. Bears 31-10

Buffalo at Indianapolis (+4), o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

With four straight wins in their pocket, and a four-game lead in the AFC East, it's very possible that what happened with Amari Cooper last week happens more often with the Bills in the second half. Why have your star players suit up at anything less than 100 percent if you don't need them to? The focus is on the playoffs, not some game in November. Buffalo did barely squeak by Miami last week on a last-second Tyler Bass field goal, and having Cooper as the clear WR1 would certainly help boost the offense's ceiling, but even their floor performances tend to be pretty good. Josh Allen has thrown multiple TDs in every game during the win streak, posting a 9:2 TD:INT, 67.9 percent completion rate and an 8.1 YPA, and as long as he's humming, the Bills will be hard to stop.

Joe Flacco's return to the lineup last week didn't exactly go smoothly, but having to face the Vikings was a tough assignment. The 39-year-old still gives the Colts their best chance to win, and the AFC playoff picture is still muddy enough that prioritizing short-term success (or Anthony Richardson's long-term confidence, whichever angle you want to take on it) makes sense. It would help if the team could ever get healthy, tough. Jonathan Taylor's back, and DeForest Buckner is anchoring the defense again, but now Michael Pittman's sidelined. Flacco's still got Josh Downs and Alec Pierce to chuck it too, at least. This team hasn't scored more than 20 points in a game since Week 5 though, regardless of who's been under center, and now starting center Ryan Kelly is on IR. It might end up being on Buckner and DC Gus Bradley's unit to get them into the postseason.

Key Info

BUF injuries: WR Amari Cooper (questionable, wrist), WR Keon Coleman (out, wrist), LB Matt Milano (IR, bicep)
IND injuries: WR Michael Pittman (out, back)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BUF DFS targets: none
IND DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: none
IND DFS fades: Colts DST

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

James Cook churns out 110 yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for 290 yards and three scores, two to Dalton Kincaid and one to Khalil Shakir, and he also runs in a TD. Taylor claws out 70 yards and a touchdown. Flacco throws for 250 yards and a score to Downs. Bills 35-17

Minnesota at Jacksonville (+4.5), o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Vikings got back on track last week against the Colts, even if Sam Darnold did have his first multi-INT game of the season. He made up for it by setting season highs in completion percentage (82.4%), passing yards (290) and completions of 20-plus yards (six). A big chunk of that went to Justin Jefferson of course, but as T.J. Hockenson gets up to speed, the ceiling on the Minnesota passing game should get even higher. This remains an extremely balanced, dangerous team – the Vikings have scored at least 20 points in every game, but the defense has also generated at least one takeaway in every game too, and multiple turnovers in six of eight. The NFC North remains a brutal gauntlet, and the Lions might not be catchable, but a Week 18 rematch in Detroit already seems like it will be THE game of the regular season's final weekend if both teams have something to play for.

One of the many, many two-win teams in the NFL right now, the Jaguars could be positioning themselves as favorites to claim the top pick in next year's draft. Trevor Lawrence is dealing with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, and while he toughed it out last week against Philly, Jacksonville has absolutely no reason to push it. Instead, former Patriot Mac Jones seems poised for his first start as a Jaguar. He's not exactly being put in a good spot here – his healthiest wideout is Parker Washington, which probably means betting the over on Evan Engram's target volume – but Doug Pederson may just lean on his backfield duo of Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne to try and produce offense. That's not going to be anywhere near enough to overcome the headwind of a defense that has given up 30-plus points four times in nine games, and 400-plus yards five times. The Jags are dead last in yards per play allowed, last in QB rating against and tied for last in takeaways, which makes their No. 29 ranking in pressure rate look almost palatable. Pederson's the one usually identified as being on the hot seat, but I genuinely wonder how it is that DC Ryan Nielsen is hanging onto his job.

Key Info

MIN injuries: K Will Reichard (IR, quadricep), LB Ivan Pace (questionable, knee), LB Blake Cashman (questionable, toe)
JAC injuries: QB Trevor Lawrence (questionable, shoulder), WR Brian Thomas (questionable, chest), WR Gabe Davis (questionable, shoulder)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIN DFS targets: Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, Vikings DST
JAC DFS targets: none

MIN DFS fades: none
JAC DFS fades: Mac Jones, Travis Etienne/Tank Bigsby, Jaguars DST

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 30-40 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Jones grabs 100 scrimmage yards and a TD. Darnold throws for 320 yards and three scores, one each to Jefferson (who tops 100 yards), Addison and Hockenson. Bigsby leads the JAC backfield with 50 yards. Jones throws for under 200 yards, gets picked off twice and sacked four times, but he does find Engram for a touchdown. Vikings 31-13

Denver (+8.5) at Kansas City, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

After beginning the season with nothing but wins or one-score losses, the Broncos finally got run over last week by the Ravens, who are also unquestionably the best team Denver has faced this season. Next closest would be... the Steelers, I suppose? Maybe the pre-injury Bucs? Keep that in mind before you reflexively assume there's no way Kansas City can cover here, although there is an argument to be made that KC is closer in general level of dominance to Pittsburgh than Baltimore. Bo Nix took a big step back against a statistically poor pass defense, posting maybe his worst effort since Week 2. The rookie QB has locked in on Courtland Sutton, and the veteran wideout has a 15-222-0 line on 21 targets over the last two games, while no one else on the team has more than six catches. The backfield remains in Javonte Williams' hands, and over the last six contests he's averaged 4.3 yards a carry and 79 scrimmage yards, but Jaleel McLaughlin and rookie Audric Estime are both cutting into his touches, and Sean Payton could shift to a hot-hand strategy at any time. The defense had held six of seven opponents under 20 points prior to getting routed by Lamar Jackson and company, but again – while it would be easy to dismiss that collapse as an aberration, holding guys like Bryce Young and Spencer Rattler in check doesn't really tell you much about how the Broncos will do against real QBs. Denver did beat Kansas City in Week 8 last year, but that was their first victory in this rivalry since 2015, snapping a 16-game losing streak.

Tampa Bay held a 17-10 lead over Kansas City heading into the fourth quarter last week, and I doubt even the Bucs' own fans gave them better than about a 20 percent chance of making it hold up. In a lot of ways, Andy Reid's team has become like the late-period Belichick/Brady Patriots, where they take the other team's best shot early, size them up, and then methodically break them down. The two-time champs' season did seem to hang in the balance late in the OT win, though – Patrick Mahomes went down with a non-contact injury on his TD toss to Samaje Perine and had to be helped off the field while putting no weight on his left leg. By Kansas City's ensuing possession, he was somehow back under center like nothing was wrong. No offense to Carson Wentz, but this team isn't going undefeated with a different quarterback. Mahomes is liking what he's seeing from DeAndre Hopkins so far, and while the duo isn't quite on the same page all the time yet, Hopkins hauled in two TDs against the Bucs and seems like a great fit for the offense. The defense keeps doing its thing – no one has yet scored more than 25 points against Kansas City in 2024, and no one's topped 320 yards of offense against DC Steve Spagnuolo's unit since Week 1.

Key Info

DEN injuries: WR Josh Reynolds (IR, finger)
KC injuries: RB Isiah Pacheco (IR, lower leg), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (out, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DEN DFS targets: none
KC DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: Javonte Williams
KC DFS fades: Travis Kelce

Weather notes: no weather concerns 

The Scoop

Williams manages 50 yards. Nix throws for under 200 yards but does run in a score. Kareem Hunt collects 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Mahomes throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Hopkins and Xavier Worthy. Kansas City 27-16 

Atlanta at New Orleans (+3.5), o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Falcons are beginning to pull away in the NFC South, although it might be more accurate to say the rest of the division is falling away from them. Atlanta has won five of its last six, but New Orleans just fired its head coach and Tampa Bay's offense is held together with band aids and chewing gum right now. Kirk Cousins is riding high, and over the last five weeks he's posted a 72.2 percent completion rate, 13:3 TD:INT and 8.3 YPA while spreading the ball around effectively. He might have to do even more of that here with Drake London banged up, but Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and even Ray-Ray McCloud have flashed recently. Robinson's been a beast in general, topping 100 scrimmage yards in four straight while averaging 5.1 yards a carry. Even in Atlanta's no-show against Seattle a couple weeks ago, the team's inability to score was due to turnovers, not any difficulty moving the ball. The defense has been spotty and hasn't held an opponent under 20 points or 333 yards of offense since Week 1, and the fact that the front office didn't get pass-rush help for Matthew Judon at the deadline is a little disappointing. With Troy Andersen healthy, maybe Kaden Elliss gets used as a blitzer more often, but this team is still last in the league in sacks for a reason.

When these two teams met in Week 4, the Falcons barely squeaked out a win in Atlanta. In that game, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed combined for 16 catches and 170 receiving yards on 21 targets. This time around, Derek Carr's top downfield options might be Mason Tipton and, uhh... Jermaine Jackson? I'm guessing that doesn't tickle your fancy. The Saints still have Alvin Kamara, who rang up 119 scrimmage yards and a TD in that game, and Taysom Hill might have another random multi-touchdown game in him this year, but the cupboard is looking awfully bare on this offense right now, and the O-line's a mess again. The Saints' seven-game losing streak got Marshon Lattimore traded and cost Dennis Allen his job, and the team made it pretty clear they will be shopping for a high-profile replacement after the season by turning to that most interimy of interim coaches, the special-teams coordinator. Dennis Rizzi's tenure with New Orleans extends back to the final few years of Sean Payton's staff, and neither the OC (Klint Kubiak) or DC (Joe Woods) got swapped out, so I'm not sure there's going to be a big surge of energy in the locker room unless they just really, really hated Allen. Which is entirely possible. The rivalry between these two teams has been relatively even in recent years, but for what it's worth, the home team has won four straight meetings. Prior to that though, the road team had won four straight.

Key Info

ATL injuries: WR Drake London (questionable, hip)
NO injuries: WR Chris Olave (out, concussion), WR Cedrick Wilson (out, shoulder), WR Bub Means (IR, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
ATL DFS targets: Bijan Robinson/Tyler Allgeier
NO DFS targets: none

ATL DFS fades: none
NO DFS fades: Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Robinson churns out 110 yards and a receiving touchdown, while Allgeier also punches in a TD. Cousins throws for 270 yards and two more scores, hitting Pitts and Mooney. Kamara pieces together 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Carr throws for 230 yards and a TD to Tipton. Falcons 34-20 

San Francisco at Tampa Bay (+5.5), o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Welcome back, CMac! The 49ers' most dangerous player back is expected to make his 2024 debut coming out of their bye, and McCaffrey's presence changes the entire complexion of the offense. Jordan Mason (5.1 YPC), and rookie Isaac Guerendo (6.1 YPC) when necessary, kept the ground game running, but neither offers the kind of pass-catching threat that McCaffrey does. Brock Purdy's overall efficiency has been down without him, although the team's receiver room in general has rarely been at full strength this season. The best thing from San Francisco's perspective is that they weathered McCaffrey's absence without losing any ground in the NFC West. Every team in the division is within a half-game of .500, so the 49ers still have plenty of time to put together a run to the title. The injury issues have carried over to the defensive side of the ball as well, leading to inconsistent results, but the Niners have generated multiple takeaways in four of their last five games, and things could be close to clicking for DC Nick Soresen's unit.

The Bucs laugh bitterly at the 49ers' so-called injury issues at wide receiver. Baker Mayfield's top option has become Cade Otton (three straight games with double-digit targets, leading to a 25-258-3 line) largely by default, as Chris Godwin's gone for the year, Mike Evans is on the shelf, and even guys like Jalen McMillan can't stay on the field. It's a testament to Mayfield that the offense has stayed afloat over that stretch, averaging 27 points a game, and a damning indictment of the defense that the Bucs still went 0-3. Tampa's in the bottom six in points per game allowed, yards per play allowed, QB rating against, and the percentage of the opposition's drives that end in points. Only the Raiders, Jaguars and Panthers have surrendered more red-zone TDs. There have been some injuries on the defense, particularly in the secondary, but draft picks like Joe Tryon-Shoyinka haven't panned out, and the unit seems to be in freefall. No coach has lasted more than three seasons in Tampa Bay since Jon Gruden, and Todd Bowles may not be the guy to buck that trend.

Key Info

SF injuries: RB Christian McCaffrey (IR, Achilles), WR Deebo Samuel (questionable, oblique), EDGE Nick Bosa (questionable, hip), LB Dre Greenlaw (PUP, Achilles), S Talanoa Hufanga (IR, wrist), CB Charvarius Ward (out, personal)
TB injuries: WR Mike Evans (out, hamstring), WR Jalen McMillan (questionable, hamstring), S Jordan Whitehead (questionable, quadricep)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
SF DFS targets: George Kittle
TB DFS targets: Ryan Miller

SF DFS fades: none
TB DFS fades: Baker Mayfield, Sterling Shepard

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

McCaffrey debuts with 80 combined yards and a TD, while Mason also scores. Purdy throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, two to Kittle (who tops 100 yards) and one to Ricky Pearsall. Bucky Irving leads the TB backfield with 70 yards, Mayfield throws for 240 yards and TDs to Miller and Trey Palmer. 49ers 38-20

Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Washington, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Steelers won three straight before their Week 9 bye, and Russell Wilson was at the helm for two of them, looking very efficient with a 3:0 TD:INT and 9.5 YPA. I remain unsure how much the addition of Mike Williams will move the needle for the Pittsburgh passing game, though. On the one hand, Williams is 30 years old, has had a lot of injuries, and he hasn't really looked the same since the back trouble that ended his 2022 season early. On the other hard, if you add his last two injury-plagued seasons with the Chargers together you still get an 82-1,144-5 line on 119 targets over 16 games, and not being able to click with the extremely finicky Aaron Rodgers is neither here nor there. The Steelers might not really need it, though. The average score during that win streak has been about 32-15, and T.J. Watt and the rest of the defense have held seven of eight opponents to 20 points or less.

The defense nearly blew it in the fourth quarter, but for most of the last week's game the Commanders dominated the Giants, running their own win streak to three games. Jayden Daniels hit Terry McLaurin for a couple TDs, and after a bumpy start to his time with his new QB, the fifth-year wideout has now topped 90 yards or gotten into the end zone, or both, in seven straight contests. Daniels' might still be nursing sore ribs, as his 35 rushing yards were his second-lowest total of the year, but he also didn't really need to run too much. The defense remains vulnerable on the ground, ranking in the bottom four in the league in YPC allowed and rushing yards per game allowed, but the addition of Marshon Lattimore should provide a boost to the secondary. Once he's healthy, anyway. Dan Quinn has slowly been turning the unit around, and during their own winning streak the average score has been about 28-15. Of the Commanders' last six opponents, only the Ravens have topped 326 yards of offense.

Key Info

PIT injuries: WR Roman Wilson (IR, hamstring), EDGE Nick Herbig (out, hamstring), LB Cole Holcomb (PUP, knee)
WAS injuries: RB Brian Robinson (out, hamstring), K Austin Seibert (questionable, hip), CB Marshon Lattimore (out, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
PIT DFS targets: Calvin Austin
WAS DFS targets: Luke McCaffrey

PIT DFS fades: none
WAS DFS fades: Terry McLaurin

Weather notes: 30-60 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Najee Harris busts out for 120 yards and a score. Wilson throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to George Pickens. Cordarrelle Patterson also takes a kickoff to the house. Austin Ekeler scoops up 130 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Daniels throws for 270 yards and two more scores, finding McCaffrey and Zach Ertz. Commanders 31-24

LATE SUNDAY

Tennessee (+7.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 38.5
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

It's always nice to see a kicker get a revenge game. Nick Folk's OT winner last week put the Titans over the Patriots, and put them right in the thick of the two-win muddle at the bottom of the NFL standings. Mason Rudolph has been perfectly cromulent as the starting QB, posting a 60.4 percent completion rate, 4:4 TD:INT and 6.5 YPA over the last three games, but now that Will Levis' shoulder is healthy again, he'll get maybe his last chance to show Tennessee's front office that it doesn't need to go draft another quarterback in 2025. Levis unquestionably has more upside than Rudolph, but 10 turnovers in five games (really four games, since he played only 10 snaps in Week 4) is beyond unacceptable, and the offensive line just lost starting center Lloyd Cushenberry, which isn't going to help Levis tendency to panic. If he can't improve his decision-making, his career will be a short one. Tyjae Spears is also healthy again though, and the Titans can just keep leaning on Spears and Tony Pollard in the backfield to burn clock and keep their own QB from hurting them too much. No team's games have features fewer total plays by both sides than Tennessee's, which generally makes the under an appealing option, unless they're facing a team that can blow them out like the Lions or Bills.

The Chargers may be teasing becoming one such team. The defense was already stingy – nobody's yet scored more than 20 points against them, and the only team to even reach that number was the Steelers back in Week 3 – but Justin Herbert looks like his ankle's at 100 percent now, and the slumbering offense is beginning to wake. The Bolts have won three of their last four, and in the last two young wideouts Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston have taken turns posting big lines. Herbert's four best games by YPA have been his last four, and over that stretch he's delivered a 65.2 percent, 5:0 TD:INT and 8.7 YPA. Jim Harbaugh is still keeping the offense anchored around J.K. Dobbins and the running game, but Herbert's a guy who has at least proven he's capable of a 5,000-yard campaign. The Chargers are 5-3, and unleashing their QB could be the key to not just locking up a playoff spot, but being an actual threat in the postseason.

Key Info

TEN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
LAC injuries: RB Gus Edwards (IR, ankle), EDGE Joey Bosa (questionable, hip), EDGE Khalil Mack (questionable, groin)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
TEN DFS targets: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
LAC DFS targets: none

TEN DFS fades: Tony Pollard/Tyjae Spears, Titans DST
LAC DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Pollard leads the TEN backfield with 60 yards. Levis throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice, one of which Daiyan Henley returns for a touchdown. but he does find Calvin Ridley for a score. Dobbins picks up 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD. Herbert throws for 240 yards and a second touchdown to Johnston. Chargers 24-7 

N.Y. Jets at Arizona (+1), o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The good news is that the Jets might finally have some kind of passing game. Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson combined for 16 catches, 181 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Texans, helping Aaron Rodgers produce one of his best performances for New York. The bad news: even with two elite wideouts to throw to, Rodgers till only managed a 6.6 YPA last week. The 40-year-old's numbers have been trending marginally up, and he gets to take aim at a couple more iffy secondaries before the Jets' Week 12 bye, but the mobility he had even a few years ago is completely gone post-Achilles tear. Over the last five games, Rodgers has one carry for minus-1 yard. He's been sacked just 10 times over that stretch, but only because he still has a quick enough release to get rid of the ball. Only Daniel Jones and Deshaun Watson have taken more hits so far this season, and teams are only going to go after him more often as they realize he isn't going to escape the pocket. The solution might be more Breece Hall – he's seen at least 17 touches in four straight games and has amassed 484 scrimmage yards with a 5.0 YPC over that stretch.

The Cardinals are on top of the NFC West at 5-4, an entire half-game ahead of the Rams and Niners and a massive one game ahead of the Seahawks. I still think Jonathan Gannon's a bad coach (and Drew Petzing a worse OC) and have them more likely to finish last than first in the division, but I can't deny they've been playing well lately, winning three straight including a fairly convincing 29-9 thumping of the Bears last week. The pieces just don't add up, though. Kyler Murray's been solid but unspectacular, throwing multiple TDs only twice in nine games and managing a 7.1 YPA on the season that puts him just outside the top 20 in that category. James Conner's been good, but Marvin Harrison hasn't been the consistent difference-maker most expected, or the way Malik Nabers has been for the Giants. As for the defense, it's consistently in the lower half of the league in basically every category, and downright awful in a handful (only the Panthers have been worse in getting off the field on third down, for instance.) And yet, Arizona has a winning record. Hmm. Sometimes, the math just doesn't math no matter how hard you try, but sometimes it's telling you what's on the horizon.

Key Info

NYJ injuries: WR Allen Lazard (IR, chest), TE Tyler Conklin (questionable, ankle), K Greg Zuerlein (IR, knee), LB C.J. Mosley (out, neck)
ARI injuries: S Jalen Thompson (questionable, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NYJ DFS targets: Xavier Gipson
ARI DFS targets: none

NYJ DFS fades: none
ARI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Hall gains 80 yards and a TD. Rodgers throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Gipson and Wilson. Conner scampers for 140 combined yards and two scores. Murray throws for 220 yards and a TD to Harrison. Cardinals 27-24

Philadelphia at Dallas (+7.5), o/u 43.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

If there's an NFL fandom hill I'm willing to die on, it's that Barry Sanders was the greatest running back in league history – as in, the greatest to ever run with the ball. If you want to argue that Walter Payton or whoever was a better all-around player I won't quibble, but for me, the conversation of who was the best at doing a RB's primary job begins and ends with Barry. So when I say that Saquon Barkley is out here doing ridiculous Barry Sanders-esque things, there is no higher compliment I can give. The Eagles have won four straight to stay on the Commanders' tails in the NFC East, and Saquon hasn't been the only one making highlight reels. Jalen Hurts has been all but unstoppable during that run, posting a 72.3 percent completion rate and 10.2 YPA while producing 12 total TDs (six passing, six rushing) against zero turnovers, and it's not a coincidence that A.J. Brown returned to action four games ago. Brown's own 18-325-3 line on 24 targets during the winning streak is merely good, not great, but having him on the field simply makes everything else work. The defense also hasn't allowed more than 280 yards in any of the four wins, and has generated multiple takeaways in back-to-back contests. I still don't have them on Detroit's level, but Philly's got the entire second half to change my mind about that.

You'd think losing Dak Prescott for potentially a month or more would have convinced Jerry Jones that the season is done, but there he was at the trade deadline giving up draft capital for someone else's second-round bust (Jonathan Mingo) rather than trading away pieces for picks himself. Good call, old man. Cooper Rush will get the first crack at replacing Prescott, and he's proven to be a solid if unspectacular place-holder in the past. The last time Rush played for an extended period – the first six weeks of 2022 – CeeDee Lamb averaged about 5.5 catches for 68.2 yards a game with two TDs across the six contests, so his production shouldn't crater. The easy joke is that the running game also can't get any worse, but Rico Dowdle has topped 100 combined yards in two of his last three games while posting a 5.1 YPC over that stretch, so yeah, it definitely can. Micah Parsons also might return this week, but this is still a team that's lost three straight games by an average score of about 35-18, and which just lost its $60 million a year QB. Dallas has won six straight home games in this rivalry, but it's tough to see how they make it seven straight.

Key Info

PHI injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
DAL injuries: QB Dak Prescott (out, hamstring), WR Brandin Cooks (IR, knee), EDGE Micah Parsons (questionable, ankle), EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, shoulder), CB Trevon Diggs (questionable, calf), CB DaRon Bland (out, foot)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
PHI DFS targets: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith
DAL DFS targets: none

PHI DFS fades: none
DAL DFS fades: Jalen Tolbert, Jake Ferguson

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Barkley rumbles for 160 scrimmage yards and two scores. Hurts throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Brown and Smith. Dowdle ekes out 50 yards. Rush throws for 230 yards and two TDs, finding Lamb and KaVontae Turpin. Eagles 34-14 

SUNDAY NIGHT

Detroit at Houston (+3.5), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Six straight wins have the Lions on top of the NFC, and only two of them have been by one score. They beat the Packers by 10 in the rain at Lambeau, crushed the Titans and Cowboys by 38 each, and bested the Seahawks by 13. The team is playing so well, Jared Goff's taken a mini-break in the middle of the year, throwing for just 230 yards total over the last two games while letting the running game and defense carry the load. Of course, he still has four TD passes in those two wins against seven total incompletions, so he hasn't exactly been slacking. Detroit picked up Za'Darius Smith at the deadline to help cushion the loss of Aidan Hutchinson, and injuries seem to be the only thing that might slow them down – left tackle Taylor Decker will miss this one, avoiding another round with old dance partner Danielle Hunter. (Hunter has 13.0 career sacks in 14 games against the Lions, by the way, the most against any opponent in his career.)

Injuries have already slowed down the Texans, but they're still two games up on the Colts in the AFC South, and they're getting healthier. C.J. Stroud has a miserable 55.5 percent completion rate and 6.3 YPA in the four games Nico Collins has missed, but Collins could be back in the lineup Sunday night. Of course, Stefon Diggs is out for the year and Tank Dell is also banged up, so if Collins doesn't get cleared... eep. Joe Mixon's been a one-man offense during the last month, scoring six TDs in the last four games and topping 100 rushing yards in each, but he can't do it alone – the Texans are only 2-2 in that time, despite his efforts. The defense can't quite find that elite gear either, allowing between 20 and 24 points in six straight, but if they can keep the Lions in that range it'll be something of a minor miracle.

Key Info

DET injuries: EDGE Za'Darius Smith (questionable, personal)
HOU injuries: RB Dameon Pierce (out, groin), WR Nico Collins (IR, hamstring), WR Tank Dell (questionable, back), EDGE Will Anderson (out, ankle), LB Christian Harris (IR, calf)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DET DFS targets: none
HOU DFS targets: none

DET DFS fades: Sam LaPorta
HOU DFS fades: C.J. Stroud, Dalton Schultz

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

David Montgomery leads the DET backfield with 90 yards and a touchdown, while Jahmyr Gibbs adds 70 yards and a score. Goff throws for 270 yards and TDs to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams in his return from a suspension. Mixon secures 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Stroud throws for 220 yards and a score to Collins (who tops 100 yards). Lions 34-20

THURSDAY NIGHT

Cincinnati (+6) at Baltimore, o/u 53.0 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST

I kind of love that this is about as fired up as Joe Burrow ever gets. Joe Cool, indeed. The Bengals have climbed to 4-5 by winning three of their last four, but they have yet to beat a team with a winning record — their four victories came against the Panthers, Giants, Browns and Raiders, all 2-7. Cincy doesn't have much margin for error the rest of the way if it's going to make the playoffs, and a loss would put them three games back of Baltimore in the AFC North with seven to play. The Bengals swapped Zack Moss for Khalil Herbert as a backfield buddy for Chase Brown, but the second-year RB is coming off a career-high 157 scrimmage yards and a score in Week 9, so there's no debate who the starter is. Burrow's had two five-TD performances in the last five weeks, so you know he's locked in even if Tee Higgins can't stay on the field, but it's the defense that will make or break the season. Better offenses have routinely torched Lou Anarumo's unit, with the Eagles piling up 37 points a couple weeks ago and the Ravens erupting for 41 in their first meeting. Even a Las Vegas squad that had to turn to Desmond Ridder under center hung 24 on Cincy. The fact that the front office did nothing to bring in reinforcements at the deadline even with a little cap space to play with — Marshon Lattimore wasn't worth a handful of picks over the next two years? Trey Hendrickson didn't need any help off the edge? — can't sit well in the locker room, but it is what it is. Maybe some recent futility in this rivalry will provide enough motivation. The Bengals have lost three consecutive meetings against the Ravens by an average score of about 34-27.

At 6-3, the Ravens are a half game back of the Steelers in the AFC North, but Baltimore's won six of its last seven and is coming off an emphatic thumping of the Broncos. The offense looks like the best attack in the conference, and maybe only Detroit has a case to be considered better in the entire league. Over the last five contests Lamar Jackson has a 15:1 TD:INT, 69.4 percent completion rate and 10.3 YPA, while Derrick Henry has found the end zone in every game this season and has topped 100 rushing yards in five of the last seven, and he's already posted his sixth career 1,000-yard campaign and seventh straight season with double-digit rushing TDs. Last week's two scores made Henry just the 10th player in NFL history with 100 or more rushing scores, and he's only five back of Jim Freaking Brown for sixth place all-time. The addition of Diontae Johnson hasn't had an impact yet — he got zero targets on 16 snaps in his Ravens debut — but he already came through with a 7-83-1 line against the Cincy secondary in Week 4 when he was a Panther, and he had plenty of success against the Bengals earlier in his career when he was still a Steeler and had a real quarterback (32-376-3 on 50 targets in five games before Ben Roethlisberger hung up his cleats in 2021). Jackson's unquestionably the best QB that Diontae's ever worked with, though. The cheap addition of Tre'Davious White likely won't move the needle for the struggling secondary, but maybe the change of scenery will help him find his pre-injury form.

Key Info

CIN injuries: RB Zack Moss (IR, neck), WR Tee Higgins (doubtful, quadriceps), TE Erick All (IR, knee)
BAL injuries: RB Keaton Mitchell (PUP, knee), TE Isaiah Likely (out, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CIN DFS targets: Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase
BAL DFS targets: none

CIN DFS fades: Chase Brown, Bengals DST
BAL DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 5-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Brown grinds out 60 yards. Burrow throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, two to Chase (who tops 100 yards) and one to Mike Gesicki. Henry steamrolls for 120 yards and another TD. Jackson throws for 270 yards and two scores, one each to Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers, while also running in a touchdown of his own. Ravens 31-24

Last week's record: 11-4, 8-7 ATS, 9-6 o/u
2024 record: 86-52, 67-69-2 ATS, 71-67 o/u